Saturday, July 4, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: July 4, 2015

Overall Bets: $ $

Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet:  $12 on Shamballa in the 7th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $11 on D Gs Pesquero in the 2nd
Best Place Bet:$10 on Shamballa  in the 7th
Best Show Bet: $12 on Spinfiniti in the 7th

Worst Win Bet:$11 on Split The House in the 9th
Other Bets
Win $10 on

Place $10 on

Show $10 on
Race 1  Tigra Seelster


Race 1

Overall synopsis: I'm not sold on Brookdale Shadow because she blew away a soft bunch last time with the perfect trip scenario. I take the next logical options in my view to take her down here. I think the front is good here, and I estimate who gets it without paying a heavy price.

Probable Favorite: BROOKDALE SHADOW

TIGRA SEELSTER drew the 9 hole last time, and that was no good for her. She has developed into the type that likes to roll out of there and just keep going. From the rail, she likely makes the top or lets Machet Rocket go, then either sits on her back or pocket pulls down the backside. Top call with Fillion, who knows how to drive these types.  

Value Win Price  3-1 

MACHET ROCKET  drops a notch to where her gate speed can be an asset. She is pretty good at this level with leaving, sitting a trip and coming back out again in the lane if room presents itself. Off that type of trip, she is 1st or 2nd here. There are no Bet Ya's in this bunch that I can see. Post 6 is the best spot to leave from, and Zeron will be gunning early.

LARJON LAURA  gets Drury, who will likely attempt to gun her out and get the trip. I'm not sure that works here, but if it did, she is viable. I'd use her as my 3rd choice if I play 3 of them here. She is still probably better in a straight 8 claimer, but for now, she tries tougher.

 Play Against:

Brookdale Shadow beat the bottom condition ones by getting to the lead, getting a soft 2nd quarter and accelerating away from them the rest of the way. I clever steer and it worked. I doubt that happens here.  She now moves up and meets some who beat real racehorses.

The rest:


ROLLTIDEROLL--comes off the suspended list with an okay qualifier. She looks, at best, short here. I will keep my eye on her, but this is a tough spot to come back to. One more level down, she is likely more dangerous.

LUTETIA SEMALU--has raced her before, and was a mid pack type who won once or twice when she was well spotted. That doesn't seem to be the case here and she is likely chasing 4th money tonight and goes from there.


Boat House Row--has recently changed trainers after being in Laarman's barn for a long time. Lachance seems to wake a few of these up, but I go elsewhere tonight. She needs to turn it around, and her last effort didn't show me she is on that track.


HAT TRICK HONEY--No Jody tonight, as he is away, so she picks up McNair. She seems much better off down at the lowest level, where she would still be iffy even with a very good post.  Tonight, up in this class , from the 8 hole, I can't see it. She does have enough past performance history to think she could wake up. I don't see it, but I don't discount its possible. I go elsewhere obviously. If she hits the bottom again, and shows somethng, I'd consider her then.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: I am not sold on the favorite here, although her lines are certainly very legit and hard to discount. I went to 2 others I like better who will need to up their game one more level. I think they are both capable of that, and I only need one of them to do it.


D GS PESQUERO  goes 3rd start lasix, and is in the perfect post to take advantage of her leave hard and sit the trip if somebody wants to carry her most of the way. I doubt Drury takes less than the 2 hole journey and that might be enough at a price. She has been a much better finished with Lasix, as many are. 

Value Win Price  7-1 

MARLEE B  was very good from the 10 hole last time, and last year she was similar at this time of year. Whatever it is, it agrees with her. She will have to come late again, and this is another deep field. Not sure she gets there, but she could.

PRECOCIOUS BEAUTY  is finding the going tough in the aged ranks. Two starts ago when she had the rail, she was bearing in bad and had to be grabbed up to keep her on the track. She recovered and raced okay, but little things like that cost her against the best on the grounds. Capable enough for 3rd, but I'm not certain she can take them all down unless she is sorted out. Watch her post parade closely. She needs to take her time down a couple of seconds to be more racy with these. Jury is out whether she is still capable of doing that.

 Play Against:

SKIPPIN BY was a big longshot in the Roses Are Red and looks to get her confidence back here. I think she is in the mix, but not the winner. Possible ticket maker. She had trouble with Open Mares at Scioto and as a rule, those types don't stack up against these anyway. 

SANDBETWEENURTOES  is likely to make the ticket as the favorite, but I think she is beatable in this spot. Those were hard miles in the Roses Are Red, and this is a capable bunch. Risk/reward, but I will take her action, presuming she is in the 6-5 or less range. 

The rest:


BET YA--dropped and popped last time and now she jumps and gets to face mares who wont lay down for her at the half. No thanks.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: I see this as a race where a medium longshot with some okay form steps up and passes the favorites. I picked the 3 I like best, and I like my top choice best of all on the wakeup, assuming I make my price point.

Probable Favorite: ELIZA DREAM

MUSICAL SPELL  is hanging around and eventually will bust the door down. In a race like this, its his time if he keeps hanging around to come in.

Value Win Price  15-1 

LEXUS ROCKY  is much improved for Sinclair. If he holds that form, he is right there with these.


 Play Against:

ELIZA DREAM  just barely held on last time and she isn't the type to hold form for very long. Her back to back wins bring a short price tonight. I will take that action. 

The rest:


DOMEDOMEDOME--still trying to find her way with these. Baby steps, but she isn't there yet. Pass for now.

JUSTCALLMERONALD--jumps way up the ladder and meets much tougher. I haven't seen enough from him yet to think he can handle the pressure that comes with.

MAGIC MADNESS--came late last time, and just missed. More of the same here from this post.


I AM SPECIAL--beat Strong Hope and Money Maven at the bottom, but these are very much tougher and she has issues when you ask her to go more than she wants to.

MICHAELS TURN--seems like an also ran with these and a claimer is in his future. He was good when natural speed carried him up the ladder. Now he is looking for a way down.

Race 4

Overall synopsis: A lot more wide open than I think most view this race. I play for the chance something that looks viable steps up and has shown a capability to do so in the past. 

Probable Favorite: ELLIS PARK

HES A SENSATION  I am going to Longshot Phil for the big upset here. He is a stretch for sure, but he has been good enough before with these and he is pacing okay now. He needs to trip out, but I expect a lot of early action here and then a lot of flow coming hard at that. He could be on the tail end of that charge and pass them all. 

Value Win Price  40-1 

SING FOR ME GEORGE  paced a back half in 52.3 last time. That is serious speed and possibly signals that he is heading back to top form. He seems to lull, then come back to his better class form. I almost listed him first, but I went for the bigger price for that. In reality, I use my top 3 equally to get the pick 4 started with a bang.

PUSH BACK  draws the 10 hole, and of course that is troublesome. He would have to get up close, sit and then find a seam. That is a lot to ask, so I list him 3rd. I would certainly use him in the pick 4. He seems very live. He was right there at the wire last time and these are the same types. I'd be looking for 10-1 or so to through him in the mix.

 Play Against:

NIRVANA SEELSTER been off almost a month now, and his last two were not great. This might be a tough level for him currently, and the CC Cup chase might have stung him. I still expect him to be a Preferred horse come winter, but for now, he is spinning his wheels a bit.  

ELLIS PARK  continues to take money, continues to get the right trip and close fast, but he continues to run in bad when in high gear and have that cost him the length he needs to go by them. I will continue to take his short price action until they give up on him and then he probably wins at a decent price. Very nice horse, but he has issues.

The rest:


SOUTHWIND AMAZON--was close to booking this one, but the fast miles and the Adams factor made me lay off him. I think he is in trouble with these, but I've been wrong so many times with Adams horses that I can't read how far they can go with the cheater gas , so I just no play them unless I love them for a price. Not enough price here, but my first viewing says this guy doesn't have the go to pass many of these.

MAJOR HOMER--has certainly stepped up since Hudon claimed him and has been in charge. This is a tough bunch, so I went elsewhere. He is in the mix, but I like others better tonight. He'd have to beat 1:50 tonight and I don't see that.


NAKED CITY--well over his head with this bunch.

ROCK ME AMASTREOS--I am looking for a big bomb longshot to win this. He isn't it.


CARRACCI HANOVER--might have been more viable if he had drawn better. Another day unless he is bullshit lucky trip wise.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: As usual, hard to like anything here. Take a few in the pick 4 if you play it. I list my top choice as logical in a race that sometimes plays out as illogical after the race is over and you look back at the page in a stunned whore haze.

Probable Favorite: J CS JAKE

J CS JAKE  gets a second try at these, with Randy. I give him a lukewarm top call in a race where there are few with much to like. He failed at even money last time. I'd expect a better price this time to play him. He runs hot and cold. I'm looking for hot tonight.

Value Win Price  9-5

HITCHIN A RIDE  was a promising colt at 2 who has bombed out since. He will need more speed here and possibly its there. There has to be a price attached to go to this one tonight. He won at London last year in 58, and that would be about 55 here. His 1 for 27 record the last two years is an issue, but these are mostly rats or good horses gone or going bad, so you have to look past the holes to find value.

KEYSTONE TREVOR  was basically a month between races when you consider the sickness and the broken equipment line and raced okay but short. He has a minor shot in a bad bunch on the wakeup factor with Moreau. Not my preference, but I'd have to use him with this bunch.

 Play Against:

HIDDEN IDENTITY has good form but still has not won and Pat is having a hard time getting wins these days. I think he comes up short priced in this retched bunch, and I will take that action and lean on the favorite as at least one who could beat him...among many.

QUIT SMOKING NOW  got the parking  ticket last time with first up Jackie Mo, who couldn't even get to first up with this one. That was on a class drop. He tries these again, and with the better post, and the anticipation of a better trip, a shorter price, which I will take action on. 

RECKON IM READY was NFG last time, and the time before that, and the time before that. McNair was chasing and slashing on him last time, and he had no answer but to spit the bit. I don't book many Adams horses at decent odds, but this is one I would. He is dropping, and will draw a short enough price to make him viable to go against.

The rest:


SANTO DOMINGO--got parked the mile, 3 high on the turn, and that was from the 3 hole. Not sure how that happens, but this horse is the type you just leave alone. You can't rely on him  when you play him and he bites you the odd time when you go against him. I just pretend he is not there, and most times he doesn't show up anyway. We are sympatico like that.


TIM T--marginal 5 claimer type who is entered incorrectly off a horrid Georgian line.  Trainer should be fined for entering a horse like that in a race like this. You would be looking at 150-1 if you want to lose your money on him tonight.

OFFSON--gets first time lasix, but he is 0 for 29 from the 10 hole and he will have to be seen to see if he is any good at all. First time Perierra, but that isn't a great angle nor is Perierra that great anyway.


GWALLY--romped last time,  parked the mile at Northville. That wont work here, and the one who was 2nd to him there is a 5 claimer at London in the winter. That is a poor reference when Jcs Jake and others in here would never see a 5 claimer at this point. Pass and watch him as I don't know him in case he brings him back next time.

Race 6

Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite: ATOMIC MILLION AM

ATOMIC MILLION AM  will get my top call. He is just a very nice, serious racehorse who gets the class relief. My 2nd choice is very sharp and will be hard to beat, as will a few others. He just shows a bit more than them, and a bit more is all it takes to win. 

Value Win Price  2-1 

IDEAL SHADOW  moves up and could take the 40k optional tag, but does not. That is interesting. He is as good now as ever, and seems to be sounder. He is trip dependent, but there will be lots of flow for him to latch on to, which is how he likes to race. Not sure he can go by my top choice, but he is capable of doing that and seems like he might even be better each time, which makes it hard to figure out how good he can be on any given night right now.

CHEYENNE REIDER  comes back to town and takes the 40 tag, which I suspect makes the connections think he has a shot...which he does....and they can keep him...which they appear to want to do. He is crazy fast when rolling late, even as he bears out a ton. He wouldn't shock me, but I will only use my top 2 for the win position.

 Play Against:


The rest:


A J CORBELLI--very nice, classy horse who has made a good buck, and drops back where he fits better.  He has a shot, but only that. I like a few others better tonight. He will win eventually. I don't think that is tonight.

RESISTANCE FUTILE--has enough past performance class that you can rarely no shot him, but he appears to need the class below to have a legit shot to win. Up here, the pressure can further him into a break in stride. Pass tonight for me.

WAZZUP WAZZUP--didn't like the track last time and blew up. I give him a pass for that. I like others better tonight, but he could step up. He would need a lot of things to go right for him. From post 9, he is up against it.


IDEAL JET--moves back up and faces a very tough group. Can't see him getting the top prize here. Ticket factor if he trips out and a few back up at the tote board.

LETS ROCK TOGETHER--is flat and cold,  like most of Menary's right now. From this post, in this pretty tough group, with his penchant for getting wonky in the turns, he is up against it. Pass for now.

ASLAN--post 10 in this class is enough to do him in. Looking for 4th or 5th money.


BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL--fluked off the win on NA Cup night, but generally, even with lower class types, he doesn't show the grit to win races. Pass.

Race 7

Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite:  SHAMBALLA

SHAMBALLA  was up against it last time due to the track condition and bias, and he never was involved. That changes tonight and while he wont get away top 3, Zeron realizes he can't sit dead last with these types anymore, so he will be in the mix. That should be enough to pass all of these. I wouldn't take anything near even money and as he is 5-1 morning line, I think my target  is reasonable, and possibly even a shade low.

Value Win Price 5-2 

SPINFINITI  has been off about 3 weeks now, and that suggests there was an issue being taken care of. If he is any better, even though he might be a shade short, he could pass them all. I'd use him in the pick 4. He could easily trip out, and has beaten these before when he has. McNair chose him over Thunder Steeler. Beware.

 Play Against:

WINDS OF CHANGE was flat last time on the off track. He has a shot tonight, but I think he is more likely 2nd, 3rd or 4th than the winner. He won this class when the better ones were trying for the bigger money. Many of those are back now.  

THINKING OUT LOUD  appears to me to be a chewed up racehorse, and even at long odds, I will take his action. Something I rarely do. He could slide down the class ladder to get the win, and that could be a long slide with some serious chalk burns on the way down the towering inferno of hurt.

PISTON BROKE was put into the race early last time, very out of character, and got a 30 second 2nd quarter, which was enough for him to finally win a race. That was that. Here we are at next week, and he reverts back to Hang City man here.

The rest:


EVENIN OF PLEASURE--hangs around with these types and can always be dangerous if he completely trips out. He is one of the few that drives as fast up the rail as outside of horses. So, while he has a minor shot, he rarely goes all the way. Especially up against these. This is a deep and tough bunch. I go elsewhere.

ULTIMATE BEACHBOY--isn't  very sound, but he goes with it. I like others here, but he is very dangerous.


THUNDER STEELER--McNair books off this guy for Spinfiniti,when he has gone the exact other direction before. That is enough to me to discard him, when his iffy form and lack of grit with these was already plenty.


CAMAES FELLOW--is a very tough customer who does not like to be passed when he gets the lead. These are really tough to hold off, and I don't think he can. He loves the off track, and he wont get that tonight. That really goes against most of the races he has won lately. He didn't get a cheque the last time he tried these, and it wasn't even the better ones he meets tonight.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: Would you take 7-5 or less on the drop and pop attempt by Miss Coco Luck? I might, but I'm on the fence. She looks solid, but she gives me the gut feeling type of sentiment to pass the race. I don't know. My data tells me to pass on her. I will watch the board and post parade and make my call. Not really thrilled with P Hudon at even money or close to it.

Probable Favorite:  MISS COCO LUCK

MISS COCO LUCK  Top call. Classic drop and pop attempt. Check out the top 3 in her last. They would all be 1-9 in here. And she was only 2 lengths back of them. She repeats that, and she is solid. Her fast gate move usually keeps her out of trouble at this level. The short price and her driver's penchant for brain cramps have me concerned. Post time decision.

Value Win Price 7-5  

EAT ME UP  I call her for 2nd, but it could have gone either way. I will use them both on my tickets, and I wouldn't be surprised if she takes my top choice, who likely tries to cut the entire mile.

REGAL LUCK  was in a world of her own last time, and only makes a small jump up. I was temped to rate her much lower, but when they go like that, similar to how Prescotts Hope did, sometimes they have just clicked in. I will likely not use her, but she is scary to leave out.

 Play Against:

ADDISON BAY  doesn't win many here anymore. At this level,she comes with the pack at the end, but doesn't have the power to go by like she did 2 years ago, when she was a bearcat in the Preferred for a while. 

The rest:


OCEANVIEW BINDI--is a very typical class mover, and this move up makes her hard to like. She is just getting by a step lower. There are some tougher ones here, too tough for her.

YOUR MY SECRET--is slightly improved with Lasix, but stil not up to these. She seems like she might be a better winter horse, and she was good last winter. I will avoid her until then. 


JAKARDEZ--did good at Northville, but you win the top class there and they make you go elsewhere. That leaves her in a tough spot. She can pick up 4th or 5th money here, but I don't see her hitting the ticket. A couple of those trips here and back home  to make another score.

MEA LILLEY MARK--won at the bottom last time, and these are very much stiffer. No thanks from the 9 hole. 

EMPRESS DEO---tripped out on Bet Ya's back last time, but was gapping badly in the chase. 10 hole tonight for a gutless mare. No shot.


NAT A VIRGIN--gets lasix. I have never liked this mare,  and while she has burned many, I have been on the other side of that collecting win money on the ones who beat her. I will give her the benefit of the doubt that lasix helps and possibly go to her in the future. 

Race 9

Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite: 

MR CARROTTS  just missed last time, and if he behaves, he is good enough to beat all of these. Watch him post parade, he is very easy to figure off of that variable. If even the slightest thing is off with him, this rating is negated and he is a play against. Feast or famine horse.

POISONOUS  could be any of my top 3, in the play to take down the false favorite in my view. I'd use them all, including this guy, who is much like his sire and most of his dam sires foals, in that he parades dog lame looking, but paces fine and steady once he goes to the gate. Its something you just have to ignore from him unless he gets on a line bad in a race or bears in or out enough he has to be steadied. He has wicked speed for a piece, and Fillion is learning when the exact time to move him is as he moves up the class ladder.

ROCKIN IN HEAVEN  showed a lot of grit last time and came back on to save the win. He is hard to go against, but he brings a pretty short price after you get past the chalk tonight. I'd use him in a minor way for the pick 4, but not play him for the win. I think something beats him tonight, and I've listed the two I think can do it here.

 Play Against:

SPLIT THE HOUSE  has been rushed along since he first surfaced, and the goal was to get him ready for the NA Cup, which he clearly was not ready yet to tackle those. That might have taken something out of him. On paper he looks tough to beat, time wise, but there are at least 2 in here who look like they can go with him, and that would be enough to take him down if he is not 100%.


TEAM CAPTAIN--seems to be finding it tough to overcome his issues as he meets the better ones now. I avoid him until I see a correction in his main issue--running in---which is very unlikely, or that he can get by with Cheyenne Reider seems to be able to. So far, he doesn't show he can at this level.


RUSTYS OVERLOAD--in terms of no shot types, here is your poster child. Suspect entry here.

OFFICIAL PRINCE--backed up off a soft trip last time.  There are many good options in this one. He isn't one of them.

FASHION MAVEN --no thanks with these. He is in deep with nw2 types. Most of these have passed that grade and are in University now. He is still in Grade 8.

Race 10

Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite: TRAMA UNIT

GRACIES PARADE  my top call. She has been knocking on the door for weeks. Tonight,  with the good post, I expect Zeron to be aggressive and finally make the score with this gal,  at a shorter price than many of us thought we'd nab her at 6 weeks ago. 

TRAMA UNIT  is another attempting the drop and pop tonight. She has a shot to pull that off, but I like my top choice just slightly better. I will probably play both. Trip takes it. No way to know who will get that. She got the parking ticket last time, so I suppose that gives her a pass there.  She generally doesn't like an off track , as most Free legged ones don't. She wont have that issue tonight.

 Play Against:

SHADOWS WONDER was better last time, but she is very live when she does no work. Trevor is likely to use her hard, and when she has to do that, she finds the tote board is not the finish line, even though she thinks it is. Likely short price tonight because of all who saw her get locked in last time. I think it doesn't matter. She gets beat either way. 

DIANNA SANTANNA  I'm sure she will win a class like this eventually. Probably not tonight. She hasn't made the super in her last 6 tries at least. That shows her lack of grit when it matters and her lack of leaving ability to get a soft trip to avoid that reality.


DOUBLE JOY--just seems to me like the type that will surprise you one night. I hope that night isn't tonight, because I wont be playing her. I respect Tyrell enough to know he wouldn't keep bringing her here if he thought she was better off at Georgian. That concerns me leaving her alone in this soft group.

CARDS THAT COUNT--bit player at best at this track.


MOREMUNKYBUSINESS--not a WEG mare in my view. Pass even at this level. Maybe in a straight 8 come late fall. Maybe.

CNDIANA JONES--My rule of thumb. You get your ass beat at Rideau, you stay there. If they don't race for a week, you stay out of the box.

Race 11

Overall synopsis: I think the Prescotts Hope trains keeps on a rollin.

Probable Favorite: PRESCOTTS HOPE

PRESCOTTS HOPE  has thrown up back to back under 27 final quarters after working the whole mile before that. He is one of those you see every now and then that has floundered for years and then wakes up on a trainer change. Names like Swat Ya, Concord Al, Bag And Tie and Water Truck come to mind. Those types sometimes go right up the ladder before they crash and burn on the way back down. I will ride him now until he crashes. 

STAR COVER  looks very tough in here, but I like my top choice better on his very sharp form. I will stick with that here. This one is fairly reliable when spotted right, which he appears to be tonight.

AMORA BEACH  got 3rd last time but was gapping bad and came on only at the end to pick up a share. One of those he was trounced by was my top choice. He has not panned out to what they thought he was.

 Play Against:

all but my top choice for the win. He looks very tough tonight. 


MITTCENT VAN GOGH--is one of those that just finds ways to lose, mostly by just not getting it done off the seemingly proper trip.  I've had enough of his game and would have to hate the chalk, which I don't here, and think I get a boxcar price on him, which I wont this time.

THE WAYFARING MAN--had great aspirations that were dashed when he began to hang when he met better horses and never did go forward with them. I haven't seen much to suggest he will beat the better ones here, although at least he is in the right race now. He is not a Grand Circuit horse in my view. Lets see how he does with the locals who aren't stars.


ARAMBLIN HANOVER--moves up to face much tougher, and he wasn't getting it done lower. Pass for me.


LISVINNIE--Fraser shipper who was racing in the Open at that track. Second start back after a tightener at Grand River. He will have to be seen. 

Race 12

Overall synopsis: 

Probable Favorite:  MACHAL JORDAN

MR DENNIS  I expect a much more aggressive, front end drive here. He might go all the way. Drury is good at getting that out of these types. 

STOMPIN TOM CREEK  has big time gate speed, and can be uber hot to handle at times, so they race him from the back to keep him manageable. The current owners ship him to Moreau, and we will see if that does anything. Dangerous for sure.

 Play Against:



AMERICAN PAPARAZZI--drops a bit, but has not been that impressive, even when he won. I don't like him until he hits bottom. Maybe. Then.

BURNING SHORE--is tailing off just a bit. It remains to be seen if the bump he got from Galucci has worn off. I am on the fence and stay away from him tonight. 

THEPANINSULAHOTEL--very win shy type. I can't go near him from the outside.

REGAL SON---might have been a play if he had drawn okay.


PRINCE CLYDE--has bad form and was on his life to win the race he did, by an eyelash. He hasn't been very good for a long time.

SUNNY BEACH DAY--total no shot type with these as is.


LIVE AND LEARN--bombed away the tote board at the bottom last time. That was then. I suppose he has the ability. I also think he was a longshot for a reason, and he will be outed here with horses that know how to win.


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