Overall Bets: $ $
Cash: $ $
Best Win Bet: $10 on Three Dreams in the 6th
Best Longshot Win Bet: $8 on I Jasmin in the 2nd
Best Place Bet:$11 on BOHEMIAN DELIGHT in the 3rd
Best Show Bet: $10 on GROOVEY KID in the 5th
Worst Win Bet: $10 on SHOW BIZ HALL in the 2nd
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Race 1
Overall synopsis: I am not sold completely on the likely chalk, and play the other one who is next in line at a hopefully reasonable price.
Probable Favorite: L A DELIGHT
BUTTERMILK HANOVER finished well in both qualifiers and looks very ready to race and win right away in her first start. This isn't a tough bunch to look over, so, if she is mature enough to handle race pressure, and brings a reasonable price, assuming she parades okay, she is the one I will go to here.
Value Win Price 2-1
L A DELIGHT floated out of there last time, was never asked for anything, followed willingly and scooted up the rail to be a fast closing 3rd. She had the 9 hole that night, and draws the rail here. My issue with playing her tonight is the short price and that she hasn't been asked to get down to the half with any gusto so far. At the likely 7-5 price, I would want to see once what she is like when she uses her speed early and is pressured. She certainly paces like a nice filly, which isn't surprising considering her mother was a fast 2yo and she is a half sister to Somewhere In L A, who also was and went on to be a top end stakes colt.
GREEN LIGHT first time starter after two education preps for Menary/JJ. She could step up and I'd use her in the double. She doesn't show the flashy high speed of others yet, but that doesn't mean it isn't there. More watching her tonight than playing her, but if the price were right, say in the 8-1 range, I might be tempted to go to her.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
TEMPUS SEELSTER--comes from first crop sire Big Jim, out of a high end stakes filly who was great at 2 and then declined sharply, and has not been a great producer. I will watch this one tonight, but I don't expect big things and say she is lucky to make the ticket.
MACHIN MEMORIES--is a full sister to Hello Marylin, who was not really a good 2yo and has not panned out. Luc had that one and bought this one, so maybe he sees something he likes in the family. I am on the fence and she will have to be seen. At this point, she finishes like her sister did....poorly.
BAD LIGHTNING--Trevor picked against her. That is not a good recommendation for a guy who latches on to live OSS types at the start of the season.
NO SHOT
PARK AVENUE KATIE--doesn't look at all ready for this assignment and will at best be driven back of the bus to take her time down and try to get the entry fee back.
CASIMIR PARDON ME--nickel bred type who raced terrible at Georgian. Even if she were better here, I can't see her being dangerous to make the ticket.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
KISS YOU ALL OVER--looks far over her head in this spot from this post, but possibly might be a shade more talented than your average KD maiden shipper, so I will watch her starting tonight to get a solid read on her for future maiden tries when this OSS mission is likely aborted.
Race 2
Overall synopsis: Not a race to play unless you want to go against the faves and play a longer shot you might like. I will look for one as I peruse the page.
Probable Favorite: SHOW BIZ HALL
SHOW BIZ HALL ran as the favorite last time in a Gold split, and comes back here into conditions. If he behaves, he will be tough with this spotty bunch. He blitzed a tougher bunch the start before, and that will bring the short price tonight. In that start, he was handled carefully on the gate, and then moved easily to the top, bearing out most of the lane and then back in. He never did make it to the gate last time and never caught up. Talent is there. So is a lot of trouble. Top call, possible use in the pick 3, but not a solid win play. Risk/reward. He is beatable enough tonight, but also capable of overcoming it. The next level up will bring lots of fails, or even at the Grassroots OSS. He might get away with it tonight.
Value Win Price 6-5
LOOKSLIKEACHPNDALE took his time down last time in his first start of the year, but he looked flat to me. I expect him to be better tonight, and if he were to go forward a bit, I'd play him next time. Call for 2nd tonight, but I won't go near him and his likely short price also.
ARIELLA made 2 failed tries at Penn State stakes fillies, and now hauls it back home to make a living with the condition types. She was pretty impressive here for a while, but not only did she race bad at Philly, she looked bad. I will watch her, but she might be the worse for wear. Zeron is cagey and crafty. He might turn her back around. Has to be seen tonight. She will need to up her speed to win this race. Not sure that is there currently. Might be rock and a hard place time for her.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
STEEL RESERVE--did nothing from the outside last time and beat a horse the time before who is becoming the type that doesn't have what it takes to win races. I was close to listing him as a no shot type tonight, but the chalk is very risky, and the 2nd choice was not great last time. He could be the type to hang around and win a race like this. I don't prefer him though. He isn't much.
NORDIC HOLIDAY--first time Lasix after a race where she obviously bled. 10 hole tonight, so that negates much of the chance, but you never know with lasix. It's a longshot for sure. Wouldn't be a shocker in this bunch.
NO SHOT
CHUCKNLINDY--beat Pocono maidens off a very soft half, but now is a month out and doesn't show near as much as many of these. Zeron has one of his own, who towers over this one, so McNair gets the call. Has to be seen, but for tonight, I can't see him being dangerous.
NUMBERS GAME--is one I likely wouldn't play in a straight maiden. Nuff said.
MAGICAL PUMPKIN---won a maiden when the runaway leader blew up and the chalk was being held together with glue. Bad post last time, and this time, and up at this level, no thanks for now. Project horse who might be better in the winter.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
I JASMIN--seemed to be finding her form, the form she showed at times at 2 when she was chasing and doing okay with stakes fillies. Then, last time, she was terribly overdriven by Jody, who is prone to do that here and there, and she backed up badly. She will bring a big price tonight, and if she parades okay, I might be inclined to play her on the rebound with some pretty suspect ones who will be the betting faves. Trevor takes over and he has driven her before.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
PISCEAN--has flashes of talent, and when behaved she can leave fast and carry it a fair way. A few breaks on the page now, and I will watch. I haven't got a decent read on her yet to determine if I want to catch her at big odds or beat her as short ones. Tonight, almost no shot and I watch only with her..and likely all of them.
Race 3
Overall synopsis: I figure my two top choices are very logical and one of them gets it done. I am not sure if I will pick one, or play both. Post parade will decide it for me.
Probable Favorite: NO SHADOWS
BOHEMIAN DELIGHT has a race under her belt, and it was a good experience. She looks probable to make 55 tonight, and that is in the range of what it will take. Trevor and Reid are a good combo, and this one has some breeding behind her. Bettors Delight is now an Ontario Sire, and you can expect him to be a dominant one. This is one of those that might prove that out.
Value Win Price 4-1
LIFE BOOK opened up last time but let a couple of them pass her. That is no concern and young horses learn as they go. She didn't stop. Darling has them ready when they show up and he spots them where they can win. Her line is fresh, and she appears ready to score.
BRING ME DIAMONDS chased some pretty tough customers last time, who are all Gold quality. She is to be respected here off that experience and reference. She needs to now do it near the front of the pack, not the back. Can she? We shall see.
Play Against:
NO SHADOWS has had 2 steady preps and now will enter the OSS at the Grassroots level. She will draw the most support tonight and I think if you are going to beat one of these tonight, she is the most likely suspect. She hasn't been asked for much, and she might not be the type that forks it over at first asking.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
TWIN B PRECIOUS--didn't do much last time but go around and follow. I will watch her tonight. Billy D is just another reason to pass on this one.
NO SHOT
SELLING THE DREAM--doesn't look ready for these at all.
HP SISSY--program lines tell the tale.
LADY LONDON---crazy entry for a guy who had a history of doing that.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
BELLY DANCER--looks to have just been shipped to A Mac from Vernon. I have no idea what to make of her and will watch to see. She doesn't look top tier in this group.
Race 4
Overall synopsis: Mixed bag with no standouts, so you take price and anything that looks like it has a shot, and hope the trip works out. For the pick 4, I'd probably need 6 of them in here. My two choices, my two minor shots, the longshot and the future watch play. Any of those.
Probable Favorite: DANCIN INTHE NUDE
MY RHYTHM OF RHYME parked to make the lead last time, and went a long way with it, in a fast back half. That is a nice start to her career. For the right price, I'd go to her here. She got outsprinted coming for the wire, but that one looks like a big time prospect and she went 28 on her own. If she can get spotted up near the top, and maybe follow instead of cut, she is viable.
Value Win Price 6-1
COLUMNIST chased a bearcat in her first start off a soft 2nd quarter, was the one that pulled and sacrificed, then paid the price. She kept trying, but was also bearing in pretty bad in the lane. She was much better on the engine in the previous try and has potential. If the price were high enough tonight, in the 10-1 range, and she looked sound parading, I'd use her in the pick 4. The connections go back to J Mac, indicating they were not at all pleased with Trevor's drive. I wouldn't be either.
Play Against:
JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL qualified okay, and will either be the fave or the close to fave. She loses Randy here, and I'm not sure she is that playable tonight. I will take my chances with her on the other side of the fence.
DANCIN INTHE NUDE Dancin Carroll was a pretty nice 2yo last year. She also had lots of issues and blew up several times. She still hasn't got her act together this year. Unless I see otherwise, starting tonight, I will view this one in the same way as a full sister. She is probably the lukewarm fave in here, and I will play against her.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
VINTAGE ROSE--paced an even qualfier, just the way Roger likes to do it with young horses. I expect nothing different here, which brings a shot at 3rd or 4th and my attention perked next time if it plays out that way.
IM IN LUV--made a break last time, and didn't look good before she did. I suppose being a young horse, she can turn it around in a week. I will go elsewhere. Minor player in this for the bottom of the super if she stays at it tonight.
NO SHOT
MICRO VENTURE--looks more like a Grand River maiden candidate than an OSS type at this stage. J Mac ditches her tonight, and I would too.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
KRYSTAL C--blistered home in her first qualifier, and then wasn't as speedy the next time when the early pace was faster. She is coming along, and I give her a shot. She is one I would use in the pick 4. Hard to know what to make of one that has two qualifiers like that on the page. When in doubt, add them in a race like this.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
NEVER ANY DOUBT--qualified well, but draws the 9 hole, now 8 hole with the scratch. Randy takes her, as he takes most MacIntosh young ones, and I will watch her. She has a shot, but a lot would have to go right and I doubt Randy pushes her here. That isn't his style. Bottom of the tri or super, and tab for another day if she shows me something.
Race 5
Overall synopsis: These are tough to play. There I said it. You play the best possible horse you can find for a price, and hope you hit every now and then, and never play the chalks. Or, you sit out. If I don't get a price on my top choice, I sit out.
Probable Favorite: ARCTIC TALE
BLUSH AND CRUSH is not one I play often. She is just very win shy and runs enough of the time also. But, the post is good, she will bring enough of a price, and the top faves in here are very suspect, to say the least. She was first up last time from the 7 hole, the pace picked up when she made that move and she trotted hard right to the wire to only get beat a length on a miserable sloppy night at Georgian. Dean Nixon knows how to win races, and does a lot of it. If she goes off in the range of her ML, I'd take a shot tonight with her.
Value Win Price 8-1
FORTUNES
FRIEND--is 11 for 18 on the ticket this year, and that gives him some
upside. His last was poor, but it was an awful night and they weren't all that soft.
This is his 2nd start lasix, and I rate him an honest shot. I'd definitely want to see him post parading, as he also makes breaks from time to time. If he looks good, and the price is right, he is a solid backup option to my top choice.
GROOVEY KID if you follow Rideau at all, you would know that Chelsea Knapp is very good at spotting live claims, jamming them the next start or 3, fixing them up if they need that, then moving on to the next one. That is her game. This is a solid candidate for that. I don't have hard numbers, but my observation from just watching her is that her first off the claim percentage is very high. Based on his last replay, he doesn't need much. If he comes back to that race, he is the best or close to it here.
Play Against:
NATURAL GRACE made a good buck bossing around cheap horses at the B tracks in June, and now tries slightly better at WEG. There are enough viable options that I will take her relatively short action here. She is unproven to beat these.
ARCTIC TALE will take all the fave money due to the Carmen angle. He is very risky, but also very speedy when he is doing it right. I think, as a rule, its always better to be on the play against side of these. Sure, you get beat every now and then, but more times than not, you have a shot at a value winner if you play consistently against these types.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
INCREDABLE FRANK--has a tough task ahead of him tonight from the 10 hole. He would need a few to run at the start so he could get away forwardly placed without working too hard for it. I don't see that happening, so I rate him a minor shot at best. If he were in the 3-1 range or so, I'd take that action.
NO SHOT
TIM T--same reason as last time. Not sure how he is even close to being good enough to go with these.
JUSTALITTLEFASTER-- 1 for 38 and he needed to qualify after two runs that left him way out of it. He is up against it big time here.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
UTOPIA--ran last time while sitting in the pocket coming out of the first turn. A habit he has had for a long time. On the good days, he has upset potential. You just never know when that will be.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
BACK TO PEACE--has curious Tioga lines at the top of the page, and an ofer record to back that up. I am suspicious that something is going on, and while I hate betting this rat or rats, I will watch closely tonight to see if there is something I am missing for a future play at another track at big odds. For tonight, zipporama shot.
Race 6
Overall
synopsis: Looks like a 2 horse race to me. The rest are looking for a good cheque. Top 2 evenly matched. Should be a good race.
Probable Favorite: MISS PRINT
THREE DREAMS Coleman's barn has been cold to flat the whole year, and its heating up now with a bunch of decent 2yo's, which she is spotting to make sure she gets as much money as she can. It's something she is very good at. This one was prepped right, driven right, and likely fine-tuned for tonight if anything needed to be done in that respect, and will be driven to win in my view. Top call. I'm hoping I'm not wrong and she doesn't go off as chalk and a much shorter price than I'm looking for. If so, if she gets anywhere near 7-5, I would lay off the entire race.
Value Win Price 2-1
MISS PRINT was solid coming out of the pack last time to get 2nd to one who appears headed for the Grand Circuit. She met an even higher rated bearcat in her first start. So, at the Grassroots level, she is well spotted to make a score. Trevor sticks with her, and why wouldn't he? She will be driven to win tonight, and has a big shot to do so. I like my top choice better at the price. If the price was reversed, I'd go with this one. They appear pretty evenly matched, and I wouldn't be averse to boxing them together in the exactor and hoping for 12 bucks for 2.
Play Against:
None
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
CHARMING HILL--took her time down first out, while doing little to threaten. These types sometimes click in. Hard to know. Her consistent last quarter speed is impressive and hopeful. Likely 3rd best tonight.
RADAR TRAP--likely hunting for a cheque tonight from out here, but I respect Barss's results enough to not list her as a no shot in view of how many longshots he brings in.
PLAY GUIDE--her qualifiers are poor, her post is bad, and based on her breeding, she is likely to whack her knees. I list her as minor shot, as she shows flashes of speed. Moreso tonight, I am watching to see if she looks like the type who will be in trouble in the turns in places like Clinton, Hanover and Dresden and might put up a fast line tonight to justify a short price play against next time.
NO SHOT
SODWANA BAY--doesn't show anything to suggest she can keep up with the top 3 or 4 in here.
NOT DEPRESSED--I would say that I hate her breeding, and she has showed little to this stage. She will be overbet tonight I suspect, and I will not be on board there. At anything less than 6-1, I would take on her action.
MISS JANIE---not with these, from this post.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
NIC NAC PATTY MACH--is a prospect who I think will step up in a few weeks, and while she could pop on them tonight, she is more of a future play watch for tonight.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
QUEENOFHEARTS--Northville shipper who is very hard to put in the mix here because you have no clue what she can do. I like others, but I will be watching closely to see what
she looks like in the post parade. These connections will likely try
other Grassroots, and maybe she is viable for the half mile track
attempts.
Race 7
Overall synopsis: Wide open contest with several who look like they could be something by the end of the night or month.
Probable Favorite: MICHELLES HATTRICK
STATE OF JOY looks about as race ready as anything I see on the program tonight. Montini likes to win, and races them that way. She is likely to get out ahead of them and that might be enough to help her get there first. Curious trainer change though, and of course, I'd be watching her closely in the post parade and any score out that J. Mac might attempt.
Value Win Price 9-2
MICHELLES HATTRICK looks well prepped to start her career, and she is very well bred. She picks up CC as Fillion sticks with his man and a solid prospect in her own right. She looks as good as any of my top 3 and a couple of others who have a legit shot.
ICTHELIGHT HANOVER Fillion chooses this one over my 2nd choice, mostly because he drives better stock for Blais, but he isn't that locked in to anyone anymore, so, the fact that he goes to this one suggests he thinks it has a future. The one that beat her twice in those qualifiers, and the one that finished 2nd the 2nd time would blow this bunch away. That can't be discounted. In with more suitable types, maybe she is more interested and likely to find a way to pass them or wire them, whatever Fillion chooses.
Play Against:
BERNADETTE is another who looks very race ready, can leave, sit and finish well. The price will be short and reflect that. The 9 hole is still what it is, and that is tough to overcome in your first start with a driver who doesn't get that much respect yet at this track.
ST LADS SMOKIN HOT first time starter for Moreau that Fillion chooses against. That is enough for me.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
GIRL FRIEND--another for Team McNair. Hard to figure where she fits. Tonight gives us...and them...a better indication. Not a toss, but doesn't look as viable as a few others.
WRANGLER CAT--- looks okay enough and could pop up. I like 3 or 4 better than her tonight. The rail helps get her in the mix without having to work for it. That is a plus.
NO SHOT
TOP ROYAL--easiest toss of the night. This trainer loves to just toss them in to the mix, miles over their heads and let them sink. Her average both reflects that and flatters her. She has enough good ones to make her look better than she is.
RETURN TO STYLE--looks to be very much a bit player with these looking for 5th money.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
SPECIALCELEBRATION--missed her first start sick, now has the 10 hole and a month out of action, and is likely just raced in this spot because he is bringing the whole team. I will have to see what is there. Randy wont be doing much with this one to threaten for the win.
Race 8
Overall synopsis: Another contentious split where you could make a solid case for about 4 or 5 of them. Take your pick. Post parade is really important in this one.
Probable Favorite: VERA BON
HEAVENLY HILL homebred who goes first time for JJ and Menary. She was hard used leaving and then came a decent back half. She is still iffy, and green, and young..but she has a legit shot here and the price should be right. Lukewarm call and not the only one I use for the late pick 4 kickoff.
Value Win Price 7-2
DIVAS IMAGE looks very ready to score, and if not my top choice, its likely this one. Post 8 doesn't help, but its a weak field and there will probably be a decent hole early to get out okay and make her own luck.
LADY PAQUET was raced for experience at Georgian, and closed with the winner, who will likely be the fave in here. She is probably the better prospect of the two, and if one of those two are getting it done tonight, I believe it to be her. Last time, she was on the rail and not in the flow when the front end stopped and backed in to her. She was moving fastest and the long stretch is likely to help her here. Her overall final quarter speed makes her very dangerous with this bunch.
Play Against:
VERA BON upset them at Georgian from an 8 hole start on a terrible weather night where the field was weak to say the least. The back half was over a minute, and she didn't have to do much to pass that lot. Tonight, the good post and she will not be a longshot. I suppose she has a shot, but her odds will not reflect her chance. I could have listed her for 3rd, but based on her breeding, I will have to be shown she can compete with legit stakes fillies. I am also not a Holliday fan at this track, or any track, and he adds to my list in this section on this one.
The rest:
MINOR SHOT
MY CANDY--homebred for Joe Hudon, and over the years, I've learned you can rarely toss him. This one doesn't look quite ready for this race, but he sometimes bring them in that way and they leave having changed your mind. She wouldn't shock me and I'd be tempted to add her to my pick 4 if I like what I see post parading. Mach Three/Camluck has proven to be a very potent breeding combo.
NO SHOT
UPTOWN WOMAN--I kind of feel bad for Dave Wall, who was once the man who had tons of great OSS horses. And this and the other one are what they bring to the dance tonight.
CASIMIR PLEASE ME--in terms of nickel breds, this is the nickelest.
LONGSHOT CHANCE
BAG OF CARDS--looks to be a bit behind the pack in terms of being ready to compete for the win. That being said, these types can step up without warning. This is probably the softest division of the night, so beware on this one. Mario drives for his girlfriend and he owns a piece.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
DEWAR N SODA--very big stretch to think this one has any shot tonight, but I will watch and be prepared for the maiden try next time at a place like Grand River, which is a more logical spot.
Race 9
Overall synopsis: Another tough call. More legit faves, but not cinches. Tough night to sort them out sight unseen.
Probable Favorite: ACTION BIG
ACTION BIG race a big trip last time and is clearly the one to beat off the program. If she duplicates that mile, plus the benefit of that experience, she will be very tough to pass. Not impossible though. Price will be important, as it always is.
Value Win Price 5-2
ACTIVE LADY looks ready to go, with 3 solid preps, better in each one. Her tactical racing style is a plus, and Jody is the type to sit a trip with a young horse if they don't have big aspirations. Viable 2nd option to my top choice.
CASIMIR PUCKER UP
Play Against:
STARTLED looks as good as many in here, but likely takes more money than she should. I will take that action. She might be a week behind the top contenders in this race.
MINOR SHOT
DIXIECRAT--
TAHITI SEELSTER--has now missed a month coming into this prep. She looks viable, but for that.
NO SHOT
PARTY IN ROME--seems way over her head in this spot.
AVICII--
LONGSHOT CHANCE
BAD IN PARADISE--had a poor post last time, was taken directly to the back and closed up nicely to make a decent first impression. From a better starting spot, she is much more dangerous and likely brings price. She held her own from the half and had to work hard to get back in the mix in the 2nd quarter. She can improve off of that.
Race 10
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: VERMILION BIRD
VERMILION BIRD
Value Win Price 9-5
BOOZER BRUISER
Play Against:
WARRAWEE ROCKET
MINOR SHOT
GLORIOUS DELIGHT--
BOLD AMORETTO--
NO SHOT
TRILIFE--
BETTYS BAY--
LONGSHOT CHANCE
MISS BABE DELIGHT--
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
ENDLESS LEGACY--
Race 11
Overall synopsis:
Probable Favorite: BET ON HILL
ELECTRICINTENSIONS
Value Win Price 25-1
BET ON HILL
Play Against:
GLISSANDO
FROSTY DELIGHT
MINOR SHOT
STONEBRIDGE SUPERB--
OUTLIER--
NO SHOT
ON THE RISE--
NEVERSAIDIWASSWEET--
LONGSHOT CHANCE
DAZZLING ROCKETTE--
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
MARIGOLD BLOOM--
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