Race 1 MDN CLM 25k 1m
Summary Very mixed bag, with a fts who is the likely favorite, a bunch of others with reason to suggest they could step up and beat that one, and a few with suspect races who might have been aiming for a race like this for a big score at the windows. This will be very much a jockeys race, and a jockey known to pop with bigger longshots might be the one to do that here.
1 Chipshape by Backtalk, who is by Smarty Jones and out of an Affirmed dam has started 5 times with one 2nd place finish in his 2nd last start at Maiden claiming, and was raised up to MSW last time and finished 10th. He also tried the turf for the first time last time and shortened up. This time, he will stay on the turf, go back to the mile distance and claiming class where he managed second. He is an interesting longshot prospect. Perhaps turf is the right surface for him and he just needs to be on it at the right class level.
2 Lord Flintshire by Flintshire, who had the classic turf distance pedigree and delivered on that genetic code at the highest level, this one makes his 3rd life start. He has had trouble getting in races that stay on the turf, due to the unusual amounts of rain in the late summer and fall. Now, he gets to come right back in 3 weeks at the same distance, class level and surface and draws a much better starting post. His speed figure progressed from start 1 to 2. If he can go forward off the tighter return and improving speed, he is very viable as a longer shot. He does have a Rahy dam, and that means both that he is even more likely to excel on the turf, but also might be a hanger when they get near the line. Not all of them are, but many. He kept closing late last time but his bad post and slow start then meant he couldnt get up in time.
3 Military Commander by War Dancer, who is by War Front, he also makes his 3rd life start. War Dancer was a Grade 2 winner, broke his maiden early at Gulfstream, raced all over the map and was fairly consistent and durable, making 30 life starts and a million bucks over 4 years. This one started his career at GPW, but then shifted to Tampa last time and improved his speed rating a bit, now comes back to Gulfstream to resume his chase of better horses, So far he has been 9th and 10th, and while he takes a slight class drop here on his return, he will have to do much more as a 30-1 longshot to get my attention. He bears watching, but I cant use him in this spot. Blinkers are off today. Lets see if that helps.
4 My Maxamillion is by Bullet Train, who is by Sadlers Wells, and was a minor stakes winner and chased Grade 1 types many times over with at best only on the fringes type finishes. This one has raced much like his sire, with a 3rd, 4th and 5th in 3 tries so far. He will go longer here and try the turf, and thus, has some room for improvement in a race with mediocre types like this. He is possible if he can move forward a bit. Blewitt takes him on top and Nic takes him 2nd. I will listen to what they have to say as to their reasons.
5 Quinto Sol by Social Inclusion, who for a month or two was thought to be the next super horse, then leveled off chasing the best of his year, and has sired some okay runners and winners with his first crop to race this year. This guy has a trainer who makes strange change moves, like running a horse in a maiden claimer, to a horrid speed figure, dead last, then moving him up to MSW, running better, at least he beat a few, then putting him back in a maiden claimer. He does bring in some big longshots, so obviously, his moves are shifty and have to be watched with suspicion. Like he is setting up a score. He started out at 50k going 6f on dirt, last time MSW at 7.5 on the turf, now goes even longer, drops back into a 25k claimer and stays on turf. Dangerous type if he is just playing around with him to get him in the right zone. He takes the blinkers off today and maybe that might help also.
6 Westerly Wind by Cajun Breeze, who is by Congrats, and sires a lot of 2yo winners early, this one makes his 4th life start, and started out with a similar profile to many of the runners of his sire. He was 2nd in his lifetime debut, but has since finished 7th and 6th. His speed figures for all 3 are virtually the same. He had his chance to crack first out, but didnt get the victory. He runs exactly under the same conditions as last time, except he gets a much better starting post this time. That might be enough to enhance his win chances. His trainer is sharp and makes no other changes. He did have some road trouble last time in a race where there was a lot of bumper cars going on and he had to wait until late to try and go forward, which he was doing at that point.
7 Golden Fiddle a fts by Tonalist. He was an 82k yearling but debuts for 25k. He worked about 12 times in New York, but never raced as he was unimpressive overall doing that. He has shipped down here and worked 3 times, but still doesnt show much. Unless he takes unusual money, he is a watch only type.
8 I Am the Grey by Mizzen Mast, a sts making no changes of note and running back on 27 days, was up near the pace in that debut, and while 7th, was in a pack of many near the winner. I suppose he has a fighting chance here, but is a bad value low fave if he turns out to be that. I wouldnt take 3-1 on him. Acacia and Ron take him on top and the others have him rated top 3, so while he is 6-1 ML, you arent likely to get anything near that. He had every chance last time but couldnt last when the better ones ran late. He looks like a fader.
9 Marlon B a fts by Hard Spun goes out for top trainer Gargan and is the 3-1 ML choice. He shows steady improving works and on paper, looks tough. He is fts though, so he will have to be seen. He is a homebred, so Im sure they have high hopes for him.
10 Parmenides a sts by Munnings who only sold for 2500 as a yearling. So obviously he has some sort of confirmation issue. Nevertheless, he had made the races, sticks to the turf, goes longer and drops in class for start 2. Sano trains, and you have to be afraid of anything he sends out at long odds making changes. So, there is that.
11 He Ain't No Saint by Shanghai Bobby, who is by Harlans Holiday, is a homebred making his 5th life start. The first 3 starts were mediocre at best, but the last was better as he finished 3rd, vastly improving his speed rating while going longer and trying the turf for the first time. He was hard to handle at times last time and still finished with good punch when he had a chance. He comes right back with no changes from last time but draws a bad post this time, which is a factor in a race like this.
12 Weight of Glory by Gemologist out of a Distorted Humor mare, makes his 3rd start and showed a lot of improvement in start 2, dropping out of MSW, into a claimer and nabbing 3rd with a much better speed figure. He shortened up that day, but will go back to the mile distance and this time try turf for the first time, but, he gets the far outside post in a race where many are likely to blast out and take their shot. One of many who could pop on these, but he is up against it because of the ground he will have to give early or get caught wide.
Race 3 MDN CLM 12.5 5 1/2F
Summary Two likely short priced favorites who figure but have issues, and a bunch of others who are hard to like but not impossible to make a case for. Tough call, but Id be inclined to say the favorites go down here.
1 Con Permiso by Algorithms out a First Samarai mare, has made 9 starts already as a 2yo and hasnt gotten it done. He was a cheap yearling, has shown mediocre speed and finishes on the edges a lot without winning. He comes right back to the same class and distance, this time though he wont be 12-1 after finishing 3rd last time. He finished 2nd for 32k on Sept 11th as the fave, then missed the ticket his next start at a similar class at 1-2. If he were to take heavy tote action, which is likely, he is very bad value. I wouldnt take less than 3-1 on him. Id probably take 12-1 on him again if he doesnt click here and runs back a couple of weeks later. He is that type of horse for that type of barn.
2 Artista by Distorted Humor, has made 4 starts, first 2 in MSW, next two in maiden claiming, has yet to hit the ticket and shows little speed at all, even relative to this suspect bunch. His owner trainer may have a plan for him, but I cant see what that would be. He will cut his tag in half here, which he needed to do anyway, go back to dirt, which he has already tried and didnt do any better, and go a shade longer, which he has already done. I cant use him off any of that until he starts to compete.
3 Aces Up a fts by Union Rags out of an Unbridled Songs dam, he is likely to be a big boy. He didnt sell well as a yearling, was attempted to be flipped as a 2yo, but returned unsold at 9k. Those arent good signs. He is 5-1 ML, but his works are mediocre and I am likely to pass on him and watch once. Unless he wows me in the post parade.
4 Master of Disaster by Khozan is a 5 time starter to this point with one 2nd place finish. He got that 2nd place finish in start 3 when he dropped out of the MSW chase. But since, 2 more starts in maiden claiming and he has missed the ticket. Thus, he will take another slight drop, 16k to 12.5k, and shorten up a shade. He is viable, but as the likely chalk, he can be had. Going shorter will help him as he looked spent mid stretch, but he does run in and that can get him beat in any case by anything that runs.
5 Florida Endeavour a fts by Central Banker, who is by Speightstown, and thus we might expect this one to be the type to blast right out of the gate. He showed reasonably fast works in November, but has since regressed. If he does blast, I wont expect him to last with these seasoned if not vulnerable types. He could take a few with him and set it up for a closer.
6 Without Passport fts by Tapizar, who sold for 12k, then 9k as a yearling then dumped off for 3k as a 2yo to his current connections and he debuts near the bottom claimer. He will pick up the apprentice jockey, so he gets a break on weight, but his works suggest he isnt anywhere near competitive at this point. Pass.
7 You're All Right by Gone Astray, is 3 starts into his career with no finishes on the ticket to this point. He is a homebred who started out in MSW, aborted that after the debut, and last time sliced his tag in half, shortened up a 1/16th and took significant tote money off the ML, and was able to get 4th. He comes right back under the same variables. He fits at this level, but will have to do a lot better to beat a few of these. They are ripe to be taken, so that isnt impossible.
8 Valeroso by Uncaptured, 6 starts in, has not made the ticket in any of those and his terrible speed ratings dont get any better as he races. I cant see him at any point with these. He would be a massive bomb if he comes in. He will drop in class, go longer and switch surfaces, all things that have been tried with him with the same result.
Race 6 Maiden Special Weight 6 1/2F
Summary A lot of big ticket fillies, and a few who would have been if they had not been homebreds that have been retained, and many making their first lifetime start. Post parade will be key, and nobody in here should be a short price, less than 2-1. If they are, others are value. If anything takes unusual money, that one is to be looked at closer.
1 Touring Egypt fts by Cairo Prince, She was a 160k yearling, then RNA twice as a 2yo, obviously trained down fast and they didnt get what they were looking for. Here we are almost 2 years later and she makes her debut. Something obviously happened from the time she went into the 2yo sale and when she was attempted to be trained to race. She will have to be seen, but Im inclined to pass on her first out and see what she has, or has left.
2 Aqaareb sts by Bernardini out of an Unbridleds Song dam, a homebred for Shadwell. didnt perform at all first out. Pletcher makes changes here, going shorter and switching to the turf. As she is almost 4 and breeding season is coming up shortly, I suppose the goal is to see if they can get her a win before she is to be bred in the spring.
3 Whispering Pines Uncle Mo filly, out of a 300k winning dam who won 5 of 7 lifetime, this one raced solid last time at Churchill, finishing 3rd with a big speed figure, but she gave it up a bit in the deep stretch, and will cut back here, likely a wise move. She seems to be heading towards winning form and the cutback seems like the winning move
4 My Ashleigh a homebred by Field Commission has started 3 times with two 2nds so far. She will stick to the dirt here but go a bit longer. She has a longshot chance if the faves dont show up, but her speed figures are just a shade short of the better ones. However, she can improve and they can bomb out, as often happens with maidens, especially the blueblood types who havent made the races until late in their 3yo season.
5 Emma Rose a homebred by Bernardini out of an Empire Maker dam, she has made 4 starts so far with 2 fairly good, including the last one where she got 3rd and earned a high speed figure, and two not good, including the 2nd last where she had a gate incident and was trapped in the gate as the others raced away. She seemed none the worse for wear though last time. She has sneaky good form and might be the price play here. This will be her 3rd start off the shelf, and the 2nd if you discount the gate incident race. She will go shorter and come off the turf...exactly what she did for her first lifetime start here last winter.
6 Into Candy a fts 3yo by Into Mischief out of a Candy Ride dam, they paid 210k for her as a yearling. Another probably they are looking to get a win out of before the breeding season comes up and will test her here to see if she is worth carrying on with as a racehorse first. Her works are uninspiring to say the least, but yet 3 of the track handicappers have her on top. I will listen to what they have to say, but Im inclined to play against her based on several variables, breeding, form, and price.
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