Race 1 MDN CLM 12.5 5 1/2F
Summary. Three fairly legit likely favorites, although all 3 have questions and aren't cinches to hold off some bomber from the pack. Five first time starters with 2 looking like they might run well first out. No shippers but a few class droppers and many going longer. Post parade and betting patterns will be key. Inclined to think a shorter price wins this, but not likely anything goes off less than 9-5. Queen Ashy Baby is a possible longshot play if she impresses on the track warming up.
1 Luci Breeze by Summer Front makes her 7th start, with two thirds so far. She shortens up a touch here after gradually going longer in each start, then cutting back in her last start. Now she is almost back where she started her career. This will be her 2nd start for 12.5k after dropping a touch last time while cutting back. She is capable enough on paper to make an impact. They added blinkers last time, but she only ran evenly mid pack the entire way and neither gained on the leaders nor faded to the stragglers.
2 Fifth Illusion , a daughter of Fed Biz, who is by Giants Causeway, makes her 4th lifetime start here. She took a slight class drop from 16k to 12.5 last time and ran 3rd. She goes a shade longer here for the first time back in the same class. She was off 3 months before that last start, but comes back much faster this time. She took money last time, ran to the lead, dueled, but gave way late and doesnt seem to have that winning killer instinct. In a bulky field with lots of options, she is hard to like.
3 Facts Only by Bahamian Squall, who is by Gone West out of a Storm Bird mare, makes her 7th lifetime start after improving her speed significantly last time. She is the morning line fave and the top choice of most of the track handicappers. She will drop in class, go much shorter and switch from turf to dirt here. At higher class levels she has run just okay at this distance on the dirt. Interesting they would switch her back to dirt after running much better on turf. She cuts her tag in half for this race. Its looks as though they are trying to get her claimed and win themselves on the way out the door. Her breeding suggests she should like to sprint, but she doesnt have great gate speed and runs mid pack with one moderate move. Beatable favorite overall on the variables.
4 Cottons Last , fts by High Cotton. She is a homebred for her owners, but shows poor works at best to be kind. She is likely 90-1 and will have to be seen.
5 Baby Ana by Ride On Curlin is a New York bred making her 3rd lifetime start. She goes longer, cuts her tag in half and switches back to dirt in search of something to make her viable. She didnt look happy to be out there in the walking ring or post parade last time. She went from disinterested to rank and unruly. She loaded good, and broke well, but gradually backed away, finishing 7th of 7 while cantering under the wire well gapped off the entire field. Cant see her under any circumstance without showing something first.
6 Nicole Princess a fts by Sky Kingdom, who is by Empire Maker, shows 5 works leading up to the race, one weekly for 5 consecutive weeks for Sano, who gets Saez to ride her. She needs to be seen in the walking ring and parading to guage where she is at. If she were to take unusual hits of money, she might be worth including as a longshot option, which she likely will be. I'd say 25-1 is about right.
7 Queen Ashy Baby a fts who didnt sell as a yearling and then went for only 7k as a 2yo in training, is by Daredevil, a son of More Than Ready who won his first 2 life starts, then ran horrible in the Breeders Cup at 2, and finished his career in the Wood Memorial with only 5 life starts. He has sired Swiss Skydiver, a classics winner this year at 3. She shows steady works with some improvement and sharp speed at 3f. She is not impossible with this bunch at this level. Viable and one to look over closely pre race.
8 V K Princess by Palace Malice, a son of Curlin. She is out of an English Channel mare and makes her 7th life start here. She carried a bug rider last time, but it did her no good, as she was a poor 4th. She goes slightly longer here for a trainer that wins at 7 percent and carries more relative weight. Cant see her.
9 Sierra Diamond by Bahamian Squall, finished a solid 2nd last time to a fts later runner. She picked up Lebron first time that race and he sticks here. She dropped sharply last time and switched surfaces, which seemed to do the trick. She goes slightly longer here, but looks to be the one to beat.
10 Kerik a fts by Commissioner, who is by AP Indy, goes for a trainer I have not heard of and wasnt the listed trainer when she was scratched for her first attempted life start. He is a lifetime 8 percent trainer who seems to race mostly at Tampa with cheap claimers. She will have to be seen, but is very hard to like on paper unless she takes unusual money and wows me in the post parade. Possible play for later if she shows enough here. More likely back to Tampa in a cheaper claimer than this one.
11 Mellow Gold by Wicked Strong, who is by Hard Spun and throws tough runners, a sts for Fawkes, who is noted as a trainer who gradually gets them going. She shortens up a furlong and drops from 16k to 12.5 for this race but draws a bad post again. To her credit, as a fts from a bad post, she got up for 3rd. She paraded sharp, calm, cool and collected and focused like an old pro last time. She has a legit shot here but will need some racing luck from the outer post if there arent several scratches.
12 Gaga Oh La La is a fts by Fury Kapcori, by Tiznow, for owner trainer Anna Varsi, who appears to have just bought her cheap a couple of months ago. She worked sharp after that for 3f, but can she go 5 or 6f at race speed? That is the question. An outer post wont help either. I have to see her for todays rating and possible future plays. Intrigueing though.
Race 3 MDN CLM 50 1m
Summary. A lot of class dropping shippers going shorter. One horse switching surface. Trade Deadline, a Chad Brown shipper, dropper going shorter looks like the probable lukewarm favorite, possibly 7-5 or 8-5. The track handicappers picked a variety of different ones, but nobody picked Trade Deadline on top. Pool Shark looks like the shorter priced value play, while the two outside ones appear to be longshot value adds if a lot of the glamour boys on the way out the door bomb out on the fire sale variable.
1 Pool Shark a 4yo son of Tiznow out of an Unbridled Song mare goes for top trainer Kelly Breen. He ships in from Belmont and gets a slight class rise to 50k from 40k. He shortens up a shade after finishing 2nd that day and sticks on the turf. He vastly improved his speed rating last time and looks very playable.
2 Seven Channels a 3yo son of English Channel with 7 starts under his belt. He drops from MSW and goes a half furlong longer. He seems to like to finish 2nd and 3rd, as many English Channel's do. Not my top choice, but he isnt a toss either. He gets a rider change to Saez from Panici, and perhaps he can shake him up when he is asked to seal the deal. Watching him parade last time, he seems to have a bad attitude about doing his work.
3 Trade Deadline a lightly raced 4yo son of Kittens Joy goes for Chad Brown. He made his lifetime debut at Gulstream almost 2 years ago, raced back 2 months later, then missed a year and a half, coming back to race 2 months ago at Keeneland when he finished 5th. He goes first time claimer here and obviously its time to cut bait for his high end owners. He was well beaten last time, only finishing ahead of two hapless no chance longshots. If his price is short, he is the classic bet against type.
4 Exult a 4yo Noble Mission gelding with 7 starts in his resume. He started his career 2 winters ago at Gulfstream with 2 2nd place finishes at MSW then ran okay at Keeneland, then tailed off after that. He missed more than an entire year before his last start at Aquaduct, where he finished 4th and is another who sees a claimer for the first time in his life. As an expensive 2yo in training, he appears to have been primed then, but not worn well over time. He is hard to like at a short price but a viable longshot add on the chance he has a good day and reverts back to the talent he has showed sporadically at times. He tends to run in and that is something to watch for in the post parade.
5 Unpopular Opinion is a 3yo colt by Carpe Diem, who is by Giants Causeway and had a brief racing career, out of a Candy Ride dam, so soundness is obviously an issue in play. He didnt start until mid summer this year, and this will be his 3rd lifetime start, both of the previous in maiden claimers at GPW. His overall speed figs are a bit short of the best of many of these and now he faces shippers and droppers from top barns. He is the longest ML and should go off the longest shot in the field. He gets Lapouroux, so that is a plus, but he isnt a miracle worker either. He was 2nd last time, but those were way softer than these.
6 Colliery a 4yo son of Mineshaft who was a 325k yearling, but has only made one life start, that back in March, and has been on the shelf since. That was a MSW for trainer Jimmy Jerkins and here he comes back with trainer Sweeney in a claimer, but not an overall soft spot. He was 7th in his only start then, He will have to be seen, but I'd think a 16k claimer is more an appropriate level for the start after this one if he can come back quicker and stay sound. He did get a very high speed figure in his only start, but can he duplicate that off the layoff and possibly his soundness issues?
7 Mr Matuschek is a 3yo first time gelded son of More Than Ready shipping in from Kentucky and dropping into a claimer for the first time after finishing 6th last time at Churchill. He was put on the lead that day but faded to last. Perhaps he changes his style here. Angel Arroyo rode him in his only Guflstream start and he sticks here. That day he sat off the pace and finished okay. Since, he has been on the lead with mixed results. He was a 250k yearling but then resold for 75k after that. He obviously hasnt panned out, like many high ticket ones dont. He has a Galileo dam, so he is bred to like the turf. He is not impossible on the variables when there are serious questions about a few of the shorter priced ones in this race. He ran a very high speed figure in his one start at Gulfstream this past summer. Price contender.
8 Phantom Dance is a 3yo gelded homebred son for Sam Son farm trained by Gail Cox and sired by Ghostzapper, shipping in from Woodbine and making his 10th lifetime start. He is yet another seeing a claimer for the first time in his life, but meets many who were legit MSW types when they were still hopeful and viable colts with promise. He races once here last winter, a 4th in MSW, and generally runs good enough to get a decent cheque, other than an 11th place finish at Woodbine 3 back, when he had a terrible post, was wide the entire way while trying to contend and only faded late when not beaten terribly like most 11th place finishers are. He came right back and got 2nd on the turf, clearly his preferred surface and he cuts back a shade here but gets back on the turf. He is a reasonable longshot add. His long winless record is a concern however and his overall speed figs are just a shade short of the best of these, but if they cant produce, they come back to him and he is a contender.
Race 4 MDN CLM 50 7F
Summary. No horses going turf to dirt, but a lot of others making changes, mostly shipping, dropping and changing distance, while many are looking to find suitable levels and this is a test race for them. This race looks like a longer shot type winner, with a few who fit that mold. Have to see them all as many have bounce type questions that could be answered with a bad post parade appearance.
1 Little Demon, a Jacks or Better homebred by their sire Awesome of Course makes his 5th lifetime start, drops out of MSW and has tried stakes company once, picking up 5th money, which was about where his odds suggested he would land, after a 2nd in a MSW in his first lifetime start. The winter is here now and the competition is tougher, so he is priced accordingly. His speed figure regressed significantly last time and he finished 6th as a solid 2nd fave, suggesting he may be tailing off. He was going longer that day, and goes even longer today, but as mentioned, drops in class, and based on the track handicappers selections, will be the favorite although he isnt a top 2 ML choice. Probably a 2-1 lukewarm fave on the class drop and that his trainer has them ready to win on the class drop and is known to spot them where they can do that. He switches to Saez here, and that will also drive the price down, although he had two very good jocks previously so its debatable how much of an upgrade that is this time. He met a kamikaze leader last time, whom he never got near, and while others reeled that one in, he did not and was well back. He seems to be going the wrong way after a promising career start, as happens to many that start early and run hard.
2 Fuego Caliente ships in and makes his 2nd life start, as a son of Will Take Charge. Like him, they tend to improve with more racing. He won 7 of 21 life and almost 4 million, but didnt break his maiden until his 2nd life start, then progressed evenly until he matured. This 2yo ships in from Ellis Park, drops out of MSW and goes longer, all things that should help him. His speed fig is in line or slightly better than the 1 horse. He has been off since August, but has two good recent works to get him fit again. Going longer suggests that he made need one, but he is possible right out of the chute here. He picks up Corey Lanerie, who didnt ride him first out in Kentucky, but is a top jock and has done well so far at this meet.
3 Divert a colt by Candy Ride makes his 3rd life start for sharp veteran trainer Pita but rises in class, meets some droppers and shippers on the way up. He was a 10k yearling, but his speed figs are improving so far, and he has some license to go forward, but will have to to take down this entire group. He is possible and the class rise and moderate speed figs mean the price will reflect that. He has longshot potential in a group with more questions than answers on the surface. He tried him longer last time and got 2nd money and goes even longer here. I suspect the trainer is testing him out here, but he could just take to the changes. One to watch either way for future plays. He has started slowly in his two starts, and he needs to improve that. If he does, and can carry his speed, he is a value play here. He gets a jockey change to Vasquez here, as Torres in on another shorter priced horse, but one could argue that is an upgrade in rider.
4 American Fleet ,a fts starter for trainer Kelly Breen for the West's, who also bred the son of Tiznow out of a Tapit mare, tried to sell him but didnt recieve a high enough bid so they kept him and this is where he shows up to start his career. His works suggest he is ready to run first out, but he will have to be seen. Some of the Tiznow's are green early, and many of the Tapit's are bad actors. Post parade and how he handles himself in the walking ring will be important. Its not a good sign the high end breeder was trying to move him as a yearling and he starts out in a claimer. His dam ran 3 times and was no stock at all as a racehorse, while his 2nd dam was a stakes winner of about 200k who ran 22 times and won many races, but took time to win her first race. He is an unlikely first out winner, and bad value if he is a short price.
5 Big Cypress ships in from Laurel, after making his debut at Monmouth, dropping from MSW to maiden claiming but showing little improvement. He is by Imagining, a Giants Causeway son out of an AP Indy mare who won 9 of 26 and more than one million as a racehorse. However, he didnt race at 2, showed up late at 3 and took a while to get going but then raced on for a few years and ground out that million. So far, he hasnt produced well, but that doesnt mean this guy cant progress through the winter and find a lower level say around February when the better ones win their way out of maidens. For now, I have to see more and he will have to be assessed on the track. He is hard to like in this spot. He will go longer here and test tougher stock. Lets see how that works out for him.
6 Beeboo the ML choice by Elusive Quality for top trainer Cox, ships in from Churchill and makes his 3rd life start. He started out in MSW at Keeneland, ran 6th with a comparable speed fig to many of these, then dropped right away to maiden claiming at Churchill for 50k, which is todays level, and was the 7-5 choice, finishing 3rd but earning a much lower speed figure. You can consider that a bounce effort. Which one of his type will show up today? That is the question and he will have to be seen to make a decent guess. That was only 6 weeks ago, so one would assume he has been kept in training and not rested and possibly repaired if there were soreness or lameness issues. My best estimate is he will end up going lower as the meet progresses. He is going shorter today, and he gave it up on the lead last time. In his first start, he sat out of it and closed to no avail. I would think he leaves but lets others control it and tries for one late run to see where he stands. Beatable but possible at the same time. Not short price material though.
7 Taita a sts by Commisioner who is back in for 50k, but meeting tougher types than he would have at GPW when he debuted. He retains his rider Torres, but he was only 4th with that group and his speed figure doesnt match up with the one needed to beat whoever wins this race. He will have to up his game a big amount to get his picture taken. He goes longer here, and maybe that is his ticket to doing better. One the fence as to whether he is a toss or a longshot add.
Race 6 MDN CLM 20k 7 1/2F
Summary. A turf race where many are switching from dirt last out, many of those going longer and about half of those shippers. A good race to find a longshot out of that bunch or another who benefits from the likely confusion. Most of the lower ML choices are many time losers who have had lots of chances. The only one who does not fit that bill gets the far outside post. A widen open race overall. One standout who runs and blows them away or bombs out and leaves it wide open underneath her.
1 Matcha a 5yo maiden mare by Macho Uno who sold to her current owner for 110k as a 2yo but obviously has not panned out. She is 0 for 10, only once 2nd, but 4 times 3rd. She is very hard to like as a win candidate, yet the ML top choice. Its that kind of race. She also rises in class from 12.5 to 20k here. She runs basically the same speed figure every time, and I see no reason she wont do that again and make the ticket and unsaddle watching something else graduate today. I might argue they are bumping her up in class because they dont want her to win, as she is less valuable once that happens. Just Sayin. Pass and go against.
2 New York Commander by Commisioner, is 0 for 8 lifetime, comes off an 8th and 7th in her last two, yet jumps up in class and switches to turf, but has tried turf before with the same type of results. I can see her future as being in the cheapest maiden claimer they have at Fort Erie next summer, and not even being the favorite in that. No way I can make any case for this one.
3 Our West Indy by Mineshaft, makes her 4th lifetime start shipping in for Kelly Breen and is likely to take some support, but not go off the favorite. She will go longer here, take a very slight class rise, in a race where many arent worth the price they are tagged at anyway, and since her trainer doesnt mess around like some of the others do in this race, I would have to think she is spotted right and in to run and win right now. She goes back to turf, and her speed figure two back when she ran on the turf is better than most if not all of these. She is the likely value in the race.
4 Keypit by Congrats, she is 0 for 12 lifetime, ships down from the east coast and has had some bad posts in her last few. She has enough plausible excuses to suggest if the price is right she is in the mix to upset the apple cart. She ran poorly at Monmouth, but her speed figure 3 back at Saratoga plays with this bunch and those were far superior to this group.
5 Signing Bonus by Union Rags, is 0 for 18 lifetime, switches trainers from a trainer owner who retains ownership to another trainer. That is interesting and the board must be watched to see if others who know better consider that significant. I will take a post time wait and see attitude with this one in a race where I can poke holes and drive a truck through that tunnel for their chances of failure. The new trainer moves her back to the turf and she goes shorter. I guess that might matter, if she is improved.
6 Miss Wrote by Wrote, a classic British bred turf type sire, is 0 for 9 and counting as she tries this mediocre bunch. She went back to Tampa last time and earned a decent speed figure for this bunch, and she seems to run better there for whatever reason. She finishes 4th and 5th a lot and is the type that can pop out of the pack in a race like this. I dont love her, but i wouldn't discount or toss her either. She is a protection add because of all of that. The question I would ask is why ship down here when you can stay at Tampa and get 4th money there. Unless you think you can do better than that and possibly cash a ticket. Its not a short drive from Tampa to Gulfstream if you have ever done it. An entire days work and you would have to leave very early in the morning to be on time for afternoon races, then get home very late. Not worth it unless you think there is some reason to do it.
7 Fina by Congrats makes her 4th life start, very light for this group of multiple chance losers, but is 30-1 ML suggesting she will be in their situation in 6 months or so unless she heads for a track like Charlestown or Sam Houston and a bottom claimer. She will be coming back on 12 days if she races. I cant see her off her form and speed figures so far. Her jockey brings in a lot of impossible on paper longshots, and this would be another. If he can pull some kind of a rabbit out of his helmet.
8 Trinni Girls is a homebred 4yo making her 3rd lifetime start, first on turf, going slightly longer and taking a small class drop. All of that makes her one to consider when you look at the balance of the field of no shot types on paper. She would be a massive bomb if she comes in.
9 Hoity Toity by Mr Speaker, who is by Pulpit, and this filly is out of a Ghostzapper mare, makes her 5th life start, and ships down from Woodbine for a trainer who is also the owner in this case and comes down each winter with a bunch and wins a few here and there. She also goes longer and switches to turf and gets a bug rider so she has a weight edge on many of these because of that and her age. She has higher speed figures than many of these, but comes out of a 5 claimer where she was 7th. Seems more like a Tampa horse, but she meets many in here I could say that about anyway. Longshot, but possible because of others, not herself.
10 She's Just Quality by Quality Road is obviously the class of the field and the one to beat on paper, as she drops from legit MSW company and has far better speed figures than all of these. She is the key to the race. If she passes the visual inspection pre race viewing, then the race is a no play as she will daylight this bunch. If she doesnt, she provides value on others and a license to take a shot on some hard to like mutts.
11 Gingeronmymind by Lea, who is by First Samurai and has a Galileo dam, so a turf pedigree, draws the far outside starting slot and in a race where many are going to take a shot and blow up, she is likely in for traffic trouble no matter what strategy is deployed. She makes her 4th life start here, but so far has done little. However, she slashes her tag from 50k to 20k, where many are probably worth closer to 5k than 15k. She would have to be used in the hope the 10 horse blows up and doesnt run well. One of many who you can both make a case for and a strong case against.
Race 10 MDN CLM 50 1m
1 Flutiste by Mizzen Mast, is the lukewarm ML choice. She makes her 4th life start, ships in from Keeneland and drops into a claimer for the first time for high profile trainer Motion. She has been racing okay, just not good enough to get it done, and thus, they tag her but are unlikely to lose her in this spot where she will probably avoid the future stakes horses she would possibly meet in a straight MSW. She will have to be seen but looks viable enough.
2 Driving Wind by Big Blue Kitten, a son of Kittens Joy who won 14 of 33 and almost 3 million, is obviously bred for the turf. She stays on that surface today, but after two on the board finishes to start her career, drops into the high end claimer today now that she has to face the onslaught of well meant shippers that are on the scene. She acts like an old pro on the track, loads well and leaves fast. She does just about everything right and is a solid contender here. She might have a bit of a hang in her, but since she is only two starts in, that is to be determined going forward. So far, so good.
3 Mothers Day Jewel a fts by Get Stormy, she is a homebred who has worked steady, twice down in Florida in the last couple of weeks, okay enough but not a wow performer yet. She will have to be seen and likely needs a start or two to be up to race speed and some of these with more experience. Her sire ended up being a top older performer, but was lightly raced at 2 and didnt really get going until late at 3. I'm sure her connections have that in mind here. Likely down in Florida for some experience for next spring and summer.
4 Lower for Longer a second time starter bred in Ireland, by Tamayuz, has a clear turf pedigree and is the second ML choice here. She ships in from Monmouth and drops in to a claimer for noted Turf trainer Brown off an eighth place finish in her debut. She broke from the inside that day and that is tough for a fts facing Special Weight types. Hard to say what she is, but she still has a license to be competitive with these. Lets see how she acts on the track. My best guess is that she is going to have to go lower to find a level, but time will tell.
5 Por Que No a fts by Wicked Strong, didnt sell well as a yearling and was moved early at 2, for no profit. She has worked 3 times and shown nothing to suggest she goes with these. I'd say she will take a nosedive in price for the next outing. One to watch today to get a better overall handle on her. She is likely in the 70-1 range today and races to those odds.
7 Wecallherqueenmary a first time start by Exaggerator, a rugged son of Curlin, she has worked okay, steady and shown some speed. She will have to be seen for manners and composure, but if she passes those tests, she is not without a chance to pop at first asking, as her sire was good early and ready to go when he started his career.
8 Big Bad Diva a sts by Skipshot out of a Giants Causeway mare has a turf pedigree. She was second in her debut, a 7f dirt race on the sloppy track rained off the turf. Here she goes longer and gets on the turf for high end trainer Joseph. She took very heavy late tote action last time, had the inside post 1, broke slow and last, worked her way up then was a solid 2nd going forward on a winner who wasnt going to be beaten. If she takes to the turf as her pedigree suggests, she looks like the one in this race. She is 15-1 on the ML, but I wouldnt expect to see more than 5-1 based on all the variables, and possibly could go off a 7-2 fave.
9 Speightster's Gold a sts by Speightster, goes to the turf after finishing 5th in the same race as the one above, and obviously, they were aiming for turf and a longer distance with this one. Because of all that, she is possible on the change in distance, surface and going longer. She does rise in class as does the one above, but not substantially enough to suggest that puts her in a deep hole. She will have to improve her speed here, but that is not out of the question. Minor shot at a price. Her sire did not race at 2, 3 times at 3 and won all of those, then was on the shelf for a year and came back with one start at 4 and was retired. Durability in the pedigree of this one is a question.
10 Brynbella by Flintshire, a noted turf and distance champion for many years, is making her 4th life start, dropping out of MSW and shipping from New York, where she was not good enough to make the ticket 3 times. She goes a bit shorter today for top trainer Pletcher, but again has a poor post and will have to be much better. Contender in a field where any that improves can be the one. She has a license to do that but I wouldn't want less than 7-1.
11 Secrets Kept by Outwork, a New York sire by Uncle Mo, draws outside, drops in class, ships in from New York and goes longer here. She is hard to like on paper, but yet, Acacia made her her longshot play of the day. She is one to look over well in the post parade and warm up.
12 Mission Possible by Noble Mission out of a Stormy Atlantic mare, she is bred to be a turf horse. She is a sts who ran okay in her first start at Special Weight and drops into the high end claimer here. The bad post is an issue even if she improves. Going much longer gives her a chance to settle and hopefully come from out of it if there is enough speed that battles in front of her.
Other races
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In case you wondered....
Mr Matuschek is the name of a character from the 1940 movie The Shop Around The Corner, which starred legendary actor Jimmy Stewart, shortly after his career began to take off. Its a story about a top salesman at a leathergoods shop in Budapest owned by the high-strung Mr. Hugo Matuschek. Stewart plays the salesman. You can find out the rest if google it.
cool horse names
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