Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, March 21, 2022

Race 1: NW $9,000 L5 2 DANCER HALL dropped to this class last time and woke up sharply. That was 3rd off the shelf, and if he maintains that form, he is the one to beat. There are enough other chances here that he could offer in the 3-1 range or slightly less. I like him in this spot. 1 DERF HANOVER moves up in class off a 2nd and 3rd, changes owners and trainer. He also gets Trevor Henry and an inside post. He has a outside shot if he makes the top or the pocket and the faves blow up. 6 PRINCESSPARTYPANTS is capable enough with these types, although she is the win shy type. She has an outside shot if she trips out and the faves blowup for some reason. 7 IGLARE AM was flat last week on return, but J Mac got her a sweet trip and found a seam late to get it done. These are slightly tougher and she would have to be better at a probable short price. I will go against her. 8 HONE THE TONE did all the work first up, had the lead until late, but was picked off by the favorite who had a sweet trip. He has stepped up lately but the post is an issue here and he is a bit short of the best ones anyway. I will pass on him for the win, but he can pickup 3rd or 4th if others fail. 3 TYMAL RIGGS has faded twice in the lane against these and beat a suspect group the race before that a class lower when they went a back half in a minute. He is not likely to be competitive at this level until he steps up. I havent seen any of that yet. 5 COLD RAGE generally trots in the 57 range, and there are at least two in here who are likely to go 56 or faster. I cant see him winning with this bunch. 4 ARRAKIS comes off a win at Flamboro, and has upset potential at big odds here, but generally he is a bit short of this type of competition at this stage of his career. He would need a lot to go right for him to take them all down. Race 2: NW1 1 ALMOST THERE BOSS was a bit player at 2 when he tried Grassroots types. He did show high speed though and paced home fast in his qualifier prep for these. He has an obvious shot but is no lock. 2 LETSFLYTOGETHER N. is 0 for 11 life and ships in from the Big M. He catches a weak bunch but he is no bearcat either. He will have to be seen. He is fast, but he has never hit the board. That isnt good. 7 WELLWORTHTHEWAIT shows a win in 12 starts last year, at Rideau. He has been off for the winter since November and tries his luck here, as he gets in a straight maiden with a weak and suspect bunch. He did pace in 54.2 last year and came back 7 days later and paced in 55 and change. His qualifier was okay. He has upset potential if he is ready to go in 55 and the chalks dont deliver, which is possible looking them over. 6 J M DEFLECTION brought his time down on Thursday night and comes right back. There are questions regarding the likely faves here, so he is viable as a price play with Trevor Henry back on for a second time. 4 ARSAIG seems to be gradually improving, and he can probably bring his overall time down another second, which might land him on the ticket, but I still think he is a race or two away from winning form. 5 ROCKNROLL NATION ships to the big track off 3 5th place finishes at London. He will have to drastically improve his form and time to go with many of these. He does pick up McClure from the trainer/driver, and lets see if he shows anything to recommend him for next time. Pass here. 3 SUCRETARIAT is 0 for 29 lifetime and other than being a good steady leaver, he doesnt do enough when they turn for home. Pass until he shows me something that indicates he can win at the big track.