Race 1 MDN CLM 25 6 1/2F
Summary. Both of the likely favorites are okay but suspect. One might be a one paced hanger, the other a no good class dropper who has to go much lower. All of the others have reasons to suspect any one of them could be the one that turns it around today. Other than the fts and the rail horse, the balance of the field goes longer, and longer usually means something comes late when others are fading or tiring. Post parade and betting action key here.
1 Pretty Rachel by Dominus, who is by Smart Strike, has made 4 starts to date, is the 2nd ML choice but the top choice of the track handicappers except for one, who picks her 3rd. She has been 2nd in 3 of those starts, and finished 5th in the other when she was jacked up to 50k from 25k and asked to go a shade longer. She rebounded last time on the drop back down and cut back to this distance. Last time was first time Zayas, and he sticks here. She ran a solid steady 2nd last time but never looked like she was a threat to the winner although she was well in range of her. More than that, her main habit or trait seems to be she can break sharp, but then immediately runs one speed the entire way, which means if she gives the leader enough of a lead, she wont be able to go by unless that one collapses. Thus, she is a vulnerable favorite if you can find one who fits the bill.
2 We Bless Luck by Union Rags, is a sts who was 10th on debut, but now switches to dirt, drops in class and goes longer in the hopes one or more of those changes helps her out. She drops from 40k to 25k here and gets a new jockey. In that first start, she was well composed, behaved and acted like a decent enough horse, but then broke slow enough to be well back, and never got involved. She didnt quit either and while 10th, she was not well distanced and keeping up with the back pack. She isnt impossible here with all the changes and some experience. Since that race she has worked well twice from the gate and two other works were okay too.
3 Never My Love by Gone Astray, a sts for Jane Cibelli who goes longer and takes a class drop here. She cuts her tag in half, and goes a shade longer, something Cibelli does very well is making very subtle distance changes with good results. She took periodic steady hits of money last time but only ran 4th. Her female lineage is horrendous. Her dam never ran, her 2nd dam ran 4 times but was no good and her 3rd dam won 1 race out of 4 and made 14k. I'm sure they wont hesistate to keep diving her in price if she doesnt produce quickly. That doesnt mean she cant run today, but its a factor to think about. She gets a switch to Paco today, and the combo of Paco and Cibelli is very potent as a rule. She was very green first time out parading, but then settled and is a very nice mover and looks racehorse fit and tight warming up. She certainly looks the part of a runner. She is a price contender here if that comes. I'd probably need 4-1 to 5-1 to use her.
4 Peachy Queen the 2-1 ML choice sent out by top trainer Gargan is by Runhappy, whose runners have been very unimpressive to date. This will be her 4th life start, as she drops out of MSW at Keeneland where she finished 10th of 10 and keeps the same jockey. Being a shipper, class dropper and changing distance, that added to the jockey and trainer in this case, she will take heavy money. She looks like a bad favorite if she plays out that way. Her connections paid 180k for her but based on her form and horrid speed figures, she looks more like a 16k type, if that. She will have to show a lot more to get my vote.
5 Bourma is a Maryland bred fts by Bourbon Courage, who is by Lion Heart, the sire of Kantharos and Uncaptured among others, and thus, has a license to be very tough when it comes to decide who wins at the wire. Bourbon Courage broke his maiden in his first life start with a very high speed figure for a maiden, won the Super Derby and was 4th in the Breeders Cup Sprint. Her dam is by Smarty Jones, a horse that only lost once in his career and was nearly a Triple Crown winner, and her dam won 100k and 4 races, breaking her maiden in her 2nd life start. In spite of all that, this filly only sold for 1500 in a mixed sale. Her works are steady but unspectacular, although she did show decent speed in the 3 furlong work. She is the only fts in the field and could be the sleeper if she is ready to run and some of the higher profile faves dont run well with the class drop angle.
6 Lady Jae by Big Drama, a local sire who sends out a lot of winners, but mostly ones who lose as faves and win as longer shots, makes her 3rd life start. She is a homebred who improved a bit start 1 to 2, going slightly longer and she goes slightly longer again. She is a viable proposition here as a value play if she is ignored and goes off near or above her ML quote. She broke slow in her first start and didnt run well, and was very unsettled and jumpy parading in her last start. Hopefully she shows some maturity this time and that will likely have to be the case to put her in play for the win. She is very much one paced, so more distance might help her in this case.
7 Lady Tapatia by Laoban, who is by Uncle Mo and won one life race but ran in the Preakness as a maiden and won the Jim Dandy after that. She makes start number 3 and ships in from Tampa after making two MSW starts in the summer, finishing 3rd in the 2nd one and improving her speed figure vastly to a level that probably beats these. She will go longer here for her return while she drops into a lower end claimer. The layoff is concerning, but she will have to be seen. Likely a player and viable as many in here are. She gets a longshot jockey in Reyes, so that is something to take note of.
8 One Night Stand a homebred daughter of Macho Uno for the combo of trainer and owner, she will go slightly longer here after finishing 10th in her 2nd life start, and thus drops into a lower level claimer looking for level competition. It looks like they simply aimed too high with her and took her ambition away, and they aim to rectify that here coming off 2 months rest but steady works. She has broken terrible both times she has raced and given herself no chance. These types sometimes click in and once they get out clean and near the front pack, they pick it up. Yet another with some reasons to think she can turn it around on a dime.
Race 3 MDN CLM 35 5F
Summary. One 4yo who is 30-1 ML, two fts who are both 15-1 and the rest of which none really stand out from the other. Two likely favorites with big question marks and others who have reasons to think they can run big today. The value spread has to be right, but if it is, its a playable race.
1 Emperor's Song is a homebred coming off a long layoff and making life start number 5, by Empire Way, who is by Empire Maker out of the great mare Delta Princess, but wasnt much of a racehorse himself. She last ran December 15th of 2019, so is now one year away. On that day, she ran 7f on the dirt for 12.5 claiming pressed the pace and tired and was vanned off. Thus, she comes back now, goes shorter, switches surface and jacks her claiming tag way up. She is the definition of a wildcard factor. She also has a newer, higher profile trainer. She has to be seen.
2 Princess Merida by Hunters Bay, the only 4yo in the field, with horrid form, a new trainer but same owner who was the trainer, and jacks her claiming tag up while she was overmatched lower. This combo had one like that yesterday, and it ran okay, but was no threat to the contenders. I will pass and watch this one. Maybe she improves and moves back down to the bottom with a shot to win a race. First she has to show something.
3 Sassy Cat by Creative Cause, the second runner for the trainer, as she also sends out the rail horse. Same owner breeder as well. This one however looks more viable or at least promising. This will be her 4th life start, and she missed more than a year before her last start, but now dives out of MSW into this claiming race, shortens up, drops in class and switches surfaces. All of those things should help, as she should be fitter, looks like a front end sprinter type and actually was on the lead to about 4 furlongs last time until she stopped badly right at 5f, and has a strong turf pedigree being by a son of Giants Causeway and a her dam is by Medalia Doro, who is by El Prado. Add in the class drop, and she is likely a player in here who may last the entire way, but tries to in any event.
4 McAllens Music a fts by Macleans Music was only a 9k yearling and makes her debut 2 weeks short of her 4th birthday. Her works are slow and unless she takes a lot of tote money, I cant see her first start. She will have to show what she has.
5 Shoug is a 3yo by Khozan who has been off since last January, which was only her 2nd life start. She was 3rd in a MSW that day at this distance on this surface and took significant betting money. And now its almost a year later, and she is back, in a claimer. She has worked 6 times heading into this race, and her speed figure in her last start makes her the best one if she can come back to that. Big if. Lets see what she looks like on the track. She has question marks as she is likely a short price.
6 Imhavinaverygooday is a fts by Shackleford who picks up a bug rider on debut. She was a 50k yearling. She worked 9 times at 2 in New York but never raced, as she is apparently a terrible workout runner, and 8 times at Gulfstream this year leading into this race, with similar results, barring one strong 3f work. At which point she was asked to go longer, and began to regress again. Who knows what she has? I'm inclined to pass on her and see if she can run 5f at race speed and then find a level. Interesting they didnt start her out at the lowest claiming level, as she would be unlikely to get claimed anyway. She has worked 17 times on dirt, never on turf, but starts her career on the turf. Strangest training regimen I've ever seen. The current trainer however has good numbers in terms of per start earnings and win percentage.
7 Princess Coro by Cairo Prince, is the ML choice, and has made the most starts in this group at 8. She switches to turf, after a few starts on dirt, and tried the turf twice in the summer but at MSW level. She goes a furlong shorter here, but rises in class from 25k to 35k. If she is indeed the favorite, she is a bad value favorite. She went off the favorite last time, but was 2nd. She might be the type that does a lot of that and ends the meet making money but 0 for 12 lifetime. She had every chance last time, but while she ran straight, she just hangs and wont go by, despite very heavy urging from the jockey.
8 Drawntomunny by Munnings out of a Ghostzapper mare, should be a good turf sprinter based on that, and makes her 6th life start for Cibelli after making one start at GPW in November after spending her summer at Monmouth. She started out with 2 starts last winter at Gulfstream. She has yet to make the top 5. She took massive hits of late money in her last start, which was an off the turf dirt race, and she clearly prefers the turf. She ran straight to the lead that day, let another go, but leveled out mid stretch. In her previous start, on the turf at Monmouth going a mile, she blasted out to the top, went a fast first quarter, led to about 6f but faded badly late. She runs hard and fast for as far as she can go and if she can do that here, at this distance, she could bottom them out.
Race 4 MDN CLM 50 6F
Summary. A short field with a clear short priced favorite and a 2nd choice that will be a much shorter price than the balance of the field. Probably looking at 4-5 and 5-2. Both of those have issues and any of the balance could take them given the right circumstances.
1 Frosted Mistress is a fts by Frosted who is a homebred trained by Nicks, She looks ready to start, but not to win. She will have to be seen. Nobody is a toss in this race if you go against the chalk. She has a weak female family and her second dam is by Storm Bird.
2 Patty H by Flatter, she is by far the most raced in this bunch, as this is start 6 for her. She has worked her way down the class ranks along the way, now slashing her tag from 150k last time to 50k here after aborting the MSW trail, but last time was only 6th as the 6-5 choice. She will shorten to 6f here, but has failed twice at that distance too. On the fence with her as to whether she is raced out, or looking for a better spot to find a level she can take them all the way. Her jockey here was on the winner last time against her, stalked her and then blew by. I'm sure he knows she is the type that can only take them so far on the lead and will seek some sort of trip to manage her. She shows no works for the last month, perhaps trying to freshen her up as she has been very hard raced for a 2yo.
3 Izshefrosted a sts by Frosted whose speed figures is in line with the 2 horse and comes back to the same claiming level she raced first out when she was 3rd. She made a very impressive pre race appearance, ran out hard from an outer post, contested the lead wide, and stayed on well for 3rd while the favorite romped. She is the value play here if the top 2 ML choices take the money you would expect.
4 Snackster is a fts by Speightster, she shows 3 works, all of them good, the last one at 5f very very good. Another to use against the chalks if that is the play.
5 Air Cavalry is a 100k yearling by Air Force Blue, who is by War Front, who started out twice in MSW, 12th on debut, then 9th, then dropped into a claimer last time, switched to the dirt going 6f where she finished 3rd and now comes back at the same distance, surface and tag. Her speed figures however are well short of many of these. She has room for improvement, with the recent class drop, surface change and distance adjustments, but she will have to step it up. 2yo's can do that. Minor shot if she can and others bomb out. She has excellent gate speed and that is a plus in a short field like this.
6 Exact by Competitive Edge, who is by Super Saver, goes out for Pletcher, drops into a claimer for the first time, and had been racing in New York prior to her last try on turf at 5f at GPW, where she went off at even money from an outside post and finished 3rd. She is a chestnut filly and looks like a bit of a sulker, as well as suspect confirmation up front. Even though she is hitting the ticket, Pletcher wastes no time in tagging her here, which suggests she is a disappointment in terms of what they thought they had training down. She had to steady sharply last time when a horse in front of her lost the rider, but she wasnt doing much at that point anyway and had a clear run in the stretch and didnt do much then either. She has hanger written all over her.
Race 5 MDN CLM 35 7 1/2F
Summary. There are no shippers in this race, two for Sano, many going shorter, the likely favorite is taking a class drop. At first glance, a wide open race where something will improve or trip out and win it. Tote money will likely give you value contenders. Favorites must be watched post parading as they have attitude issues coming in.
1 Congrats Again a 2yo by Congrats who started on May 1 and has already made 9 starts. When they named him Congrats Again they named him right. He is durable but has missed the ticket in his last 3, so perhaps he is tiring. This will be his first try on turf, so I suppose that is something to go on. Playing devils advocate, they didnt try him on turf all this time until he tailed off on dirt. He is hard to like as a win candidate.
2 Andres Eduardo by Kantharos, has made 7 starts and not made the ticket yet, but we have seen this movie with Sano many times. He is a crafty, possibly shifty character to be kind. His runners just suddenly seem to click in after many starts and usually pay well when they pop. Many Kantharos's are tough customers that fight for the win. I wouldn't discount this one on the surface of his current record. He goes shorter here and drops from 40k to 35k, a subtle change. Last time, he ran out from the 10 post at 50-1 to gun to the lead and took them a long way before he gave it up mid stretch. The slight cut back in distance and the better post mean he can possibly leave out and sit mid race and make a second move. Decent longshot add in this type of race.
3 Champion Up by Carpe Diem, is a fts for Sano. He has a bullet 3f work two weeks ago and then two medium speed 5f works since, the last on Sunday. Another to consider although as a fts, going longer, he will have no experience with that type of trip.
4 Trinni Summer by Trinniberg, who is by Tueflesberg, is 30-1 ML, has shown nothing to date in 2 starts, switches to turf here and goes longer. He is impossible to make on paper or common sense and his trainer is 4 percent from 50 plus starters this year. He wouldnt just blow up the tote board, he might cause an earthquake from Florida to Texas if he were to win this.
5 Sweeney's Cat by Kittens Joy, so bred for turf, shipped in from Penn as they are shut down, got on turf but had a terrible post and ran 11th in week 1 of the meet. However, he had a terrible post, ran out anyway, carried 6 wide in the turn, then wide all the way to the far turn, still contending, was near the lead when another carried him sharply wide, and then, when he cleared that one, another veered sharply into his path and wiped him out. Off all that, with a better post this time, he can be a value play if he can run like that again without the roadblocks and scenic tour.
6 Ghostlyprince by Cairo's Prince, ran okay last time when switched to a claimer and was 2nd on the turf. He comes right back with a slight drop in claiming tag and is the likely favorite. Last time, he was somewhat unruly and rank in the post parade, then certainly a bad actor in the gate, came out running but sharply right, bumped and pinballed with others, then had his head crooked in the first turn, made the lead deep stretch but let another collar him. He shows troubling signs for one you will likely have to take a short price on today.
7 Raulito by Overanalyze, makes start number 5 and shortens up in distance after finishing 5th. Minor shot but others look better on paper unless he wows me in the post parade and warm up.
8 Golovkin by Mshawish, who is by Medaglio Doro, and thus has a turf pedigree, drops out of MSW but his last speed figure was very good for this group. However, he is a bit of a rogue and rebel in the post parade, and he was running in horrible in the stretch and then quit towards the wire. He can be beaten based on the negatives he presents. He is a first time gelding here.
9 Kathern's Joy is a sts by Creative Cause, finished 2nd first out from the same post as he gets today, but shifts to the turf, which his pedigree suggests should favor him. He also goes shorter. He has a legit shot against favorites who have issues.
Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 6F
Summary. 4 first time starters and two with lots of experience. None going longer, class dropping or shifting surface. We could be looking at a speed duel and anything that can rate off that might be the one.
1 Magic Eclipse is a fts by Run Away And Hide, who is by City Zip out of a Runaway Groom mare, made 3 starts at 2, all wins, and then retired with a very high speed figure. He shows 3 so so works prepping for this. Unless he takes unusual money, he is an unlikely first out winner.
2 Arham by Union Rags, a fts for Pletcher, gets Saez and is the ML choice. He is a homebred for Shadwell that they have been very patient with, and now he surfaces here 2 weeks short of his 4th birthday. He shows fast works at 3f along the way, but they stopped and started with him a few times, which suggests soundness issues. Lets see how he looks on track. He is likely talented enough but racing isnt training.
3 Egyptologist yet another late starting fts is by Pioneerof The Nile out of a Lion Heart mare. He is a homebred trained Biancone. Based on his works, he looks ready to run on the lead right away. Must be seen, but he is the likely value in a race where there are a lot of unknowns.
4 Catch On Emotional is a 6 time starter by Uncaptured, who throws runners who like to win, yet he comes off 4 straight 2nd place finishes. He has been the even money or less chalk in his last 2 and beaten in both. Last time, he caught a field of 3 others, one who was never within the rest of them, another who couldnt keep up to the top 2, and the one who beat him, a professional maiden. Which this one is slowly developing into. He is very fast though, and that might be enough with a group who have mostly never raced and have questions as to why its taken them so long to get to the races. This guy runs in a bit late in races, and also appears to not want to pass horses. Tough call as he has found a field he should handle. But that could have been said previously and he didnt.
5 Mutakaamil a 4yo by Tapit out of an Unbridled Song mare, so naturally, he is a gray. He shows high speed at times, as his breeding would suggest, but then large gaps in his races. He is almost 5 now and makes his 7th lifetime start. His top speed figure would probably blow these away. He ships in from New York, where he last raced in the early summer, and finished 4th, in a photo for 2nd with 2 others, and cuts back a furlong here. He will have to be seen. If sound, he is viable to beat these in a race where you can say that about quite a few. He worked a very fast 3 furlongs 3 weeks ago, then went easy 2 more times. I suspect they are sending him today, but he will have company if they do.
6 Tonalism a fts by Tonalist, for trainer Joseph, who has done well with Tonalist, is the 2nd ML choice. He has blasted out some very fast works getting ready. Just another who might be sent out and find company of others who have the same idea.
In case you wondered
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