Race 1 MDN CLM 35 7 1/2F
Summary. There are several good options here, with many fts of which one is going to be the likely favorite off suspect workouts for a top trainer who, through no fault of his own, has his horses overbet most of the time. A good race to go deep and cover all bases. No shippers but a lot of class droppers.
1 Sip'n Dip a fts by Wicked Tune, who is by Cocordes Tune, and was a decent racehorse, is a homebred who has worked just okay and likely needs a start or two to get used to racing. Lets see how she stacks up for 35k. Breaking from the inside is also a problem for a young inexperienced filly like this.
2 Dreaming of Audrey a homebred sts by Field Commission, who is by Service Stripe, who is by Deputy Minister makes her 2nd start and drops out of MSW. She took no money first out and her longshot jockey sticks here on the class drop. She was the longest shot on the board that day, off last, made a late run in the stretch but couldnt get to the top pack. Clearly, with more experience and easier competition, she should be a player in with these.
3 Lullula a fts by Flintshire, so bred for the turf. She shows some very fast works, and if she can run farther in a race like this and carry that, which her sire was known for, she is a big player. She will have to be seen though for manners and composure.
4 La Dame a fts by Karakontie, who is by Bernstien and was good right off the bat, this one was bred by Marylou Whitney, has worked every week for 2 months and shows steady, unspectacular speed. Perhaps she is a grinding type that does well going longer. Tote money likely tells the tale of her chances today. She blistered 3f early in her training, but they chose to aim her longer and not sprint, thus you would expect she has one burst late if she is in striking distance. Shot.
5 Katiesdreamgirl by Young Brian, a son of Hard Spun who made one lifetime start, a win, then disappeared after they turned down 500k for him as a 2yo. This one makes her 4th lifetime start, and if she shows her sires speed, which was very good in that one and only start, she can be a player here. She improved slightly on that from start 2 to 3, and got 2nd then. She will drop in class here from 40k to 35k and go shorter and makes her 2nd start on turf. The kind of fine tune adjustments you would expect from a sharp trainer like Nicks. She has been off since just before Labor Day, and worked steady and even suggesting she is already fit enough that she doesnt need to be drilled. Due to her sires short career and her layoff, she will have to be seen to make sure its not some soreness or soundness issue. If not, she is a top contender with a lot of fts who lack her experience and form.
6 Goodbye Carolina a fts by Uncle Vinny, who is by Uncle Mo and was a so so racehorse making 225k, broke his maiden in his first start and then won the Sanford at 2, but didnt really go forward after that. This filly is a homebred who shows two very unimpressive works so far. She will have to be seen, but on paper looks like a longshot with a lot of work to do to become a viable racehorse.
7 Short Circuit by Street Boss, a sts who drops in class and goes longer. Her dam was unraced, but she has had two turf winners from her two foals She certainly looked the part in the post parade and took heavy money along the entire cycle. She broke okay, but was pinballed hard and squeezed, and was well back.She made some decent attempts to catch up, then carried wide and bumped a shade in the turn, and again in the stretch, but was even or flat late. The type of effort to go forward off of and if her 12-1 ML is close to what you get today, she is good value 2nd out on the class drop.
8 Smarty Queen by Honor Code, who was a late runner and a good one when he did that, and this filly out of a Hard Spun dam, makes her 3rd life start. She improved her speed figure from start 1 to 2 and its a bit better than the other contenders who have run before in this race. Hence, she is the top pick of most of the track handicappers. She was 2nd going for 40k last time at 19-1, but you wont see those odds today, and she cuts back slightly. She took some money hits that day, indicating somone or many thought she was going to outrun her post time odds, which she did. She paraded on her toes, but very managable, loaded well, broke sharp and to the lead, held that lead the entire way while being pressured by another who faded, but was picked up deep stretch by one who tripped out. As she cuts back today, it looks as though while that is a small cutback, its where she seems to lose some energy, so a wise move by an old pro trainer. Big chance today.
9 My Miss Miracle a fts for Pletcher who gets Saez, she was a 190k yearling by Kantharos out of a million dollar winning dam, and thus, the connections dont get any higher end than this one. Because of that, she is the ML choice and will likely go off in the 2-1 range as the chalk. She has worked just okay along the way, but her last two from the gate were not very good strictly on time. She will have to be seen, but likely bad value as a favorite if that is where she lands.
10 Tequa by Dialed In, already a 6 time starter in a field with a lot of firsters, many sts and a few with slightly more expience, has had her chances. However all of those chances were at MSW, and they abort that today, along with putting her on the turf again, for which she was 2nd going 5f on debut and 5th going a mile, both at MSW. Since it rained off many turf races the last couple of months, she was forced onto the dirt, and now she gets back on the intended surface, goes slightly shorter and uses the class drop angle. All of that will get her some tote money, and the issue is probably she has some leavers inside her and she has an outer post. That should keep the price high enough to make her a value use in this spot. Her first life race on the turf produced a speed figure far above this entire field to date. She is capable if things go her way.
11 Rouway a fts by Gone Astray, a homebred with 2 okay works but starts from an outer post and is 30-1 ML. Unless she takes unusual money here, I will wait and watch one from her. Her dam wasnt a great money earner, but showed high speed ratings relative to a group like this. She has potential if she can run like that, likely next time though.
12 Honorary Guest a sts by Tapizar and out of a Giants Causeway dam, will get the far outside post. Top trainer Breen drops her in class, switches her to turf and asks her to go longer here for high end owners the West's. I'd say he is building to a possible win, but not in this spot. She isn't impossible, but up against it to take the entire field down from this starting spot when there are many options inside of her.
Race 2 MDN CLM 12.5 1m
Summary. Many who have had a lot of chances, and one who hasnt who will be a heavy favorite shipping in. If that one bombs out, and he looks like a ticking time bomb, anything else pays well and some longer than others who could be considered value relatively speaking.
1 Majority Rules a 4yo by Tiznow, makes start number 9. He seemed to have some promise last year, when he ran 2 good races at Saratoga and Belmont, high speed figure races where he was 2nd, then tailed off the next time and missed almost a year when he showed up at Keeneland and ran poorly, Then he shipped to Florida, started to pick it up again, but his last two have been bad. This will be his 2nd start for new connections and they raise him up slightly in class, although he has beaten far better before when he runs to his ability and potential. Last time, for the new connections, he paraded ok, loaded well, broke slow but not bad, was way back, did little and was well back of the top 3, splitting horses late to just nab 4th with a very suspect group. He's not hopeless in a field like this, but he will have to step it back up.
2 Elbrus by Malibu Moon, was a 200k yearling then dumped off for 15k at a 2yo sale. That says a lot about how he was training down. In start number 5 last time, he tried the turf, but to no avail as he was the same as always, a plodding grinder who runs mid pack and does little. Back to dirt today. Going slightly longer. He is probably good for 4th or 5th money again, but cant be recommended for better than that.
3 Old Main by Lookin At Lucky, also makes start number 6. He is the 2nd ML choice and played that way by most of the track handicappers. He comes out of the same race as the 1 horse, but this guy was a solid 2nd, while not a threat to the easy winner, and has decent steady form. He is possible if the chalk doesnt produce. Hopefully his price stays up there on the overbet of the favorite.
4 Express Boy by Orb, is a 13 time loser going longer. I cant see him in this field with viable options. Acacia takes him on top and I will listen to her reasons to see if she can sway me. His two best speed figures in the summer beat this bunch, but that was 5 bad starts ago now.
5 Meteorito by Gone Astray, makes start number 4, goes longer and comes off the turf. He has two 9ths and a 4th, is 30-1 ML, and unless he takes unusual money or wows me in the post parade, I cant see him. He was off an entire year before his last start, so perhaps you could argue he wasnt fit yet. That's some kind of bullshit reason I guess. Bullshit excuse reason horses sometimes win races like this. He was cold on the board then. If he were to take some kind of unusual money here, I could be tempted to add him on the protection angle.
6 Ultraconfident by Cross Traffic, has seen the gate 12 times thus far. He has one 3rd place finish out of all that in his 2nd life start. If I was crossing traffic riding him, I wouldnt feel very confident he would get me safely to the sidewalk in time. He is another going longer and coming off the turf and is 30-1 in the hopes that something from the kitchen sink approach shakes him into being a viable racehorse before he heads for a 4 claimer at Charlestown at the end of this meet .....or sooner. His last 2 speed figures wouldnt get him on the high 5 with this bunch.
7 I Got a Secret by Strong Mandate, who is by Tiznow out of a Deputy Minister dam, is a 2nd time starter shipping in from Belmont and dropping, no diving from 40k to 12.5k rather quickly in his career. Deputy Ministers are tough customers like he was, but also prone to the chronic lameness he had. This one will have to be seen to see which of those he most resembles. He should blow this group away, and 2-5 at post time is not out of the question. And questions this one certainly has. The question is what secret is the actual fact.......overally lame and going to detoriorate, or diving down to smoke this bunch before that happens. That is the call that has to be made her and what this race hinges on. Generally, in my experience, horses that debut for 40k and get 3rd dont drop in value by 70 percent unless their racing days are numbered. Doesnt mean he cant win, but it means he is no cinch. His dam broke her maiden at Gulfstream on the extreme class drop, then ended her career shortly after with two claiming wins at Turfway and was bred shortly after. Did this guy drop just in time too?
8 Liquid Louie by Old Forester, an ontario bred who makes start number 10 for a trainer who ships here every winter, drops, changes surfaces and will go shorter as the 3rd ML choice. In reality, he ran for 14k Canadian last time, which is less than 12.5 American. But he did get 4th and 2nd before that. He is possible if the fave totally bombs out and the others dont step up. He is an attrition add.
Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 1m
Summary. Short field, but deep. Post parade and tote betting will give indications if this race is a pass or play. Likely a pass on first glance.
1 Well Done West is a sts by Awesome Again. He ships in from Keeneland for trainer Gargan, goes longer and moves up to MSW from a maiden claimer. Therefore, the connections probably like him or want to protect their investment until they can figure him out. He was 3rd that day and ran an impressive speed figure for a first out starter.
2 Emperador by Curlin for trainer Brown, makes his 3rd life start here. He is the 2-1 ML choice here after running 3rd and 4th in the first two tries. His speed figures are similar to the rail horse. Being a homebred, they appear to have waited on him. He has worked twice since down in Florida, the 2nd one on Sunday much sharper than before. He will go shorter here. I suspect them to send him.
3 No More Business by Itsmyluckyday, makes his 3rd start and goes longer. He has been off since Labor Day and only 4th and 5th so far this summer against softer than he would likely meet in the winter when the big time trainers like Gargan and Brown bring the high end ones with potential futures. Hard to like based on all that and he is the 12-1 ML because of all that.
4 Emperor Ofthe Nile is a fts for Breen by Pioneerof The Nile. He was a 400k yearling but now debuts two weeks short of his 4th birthday. His works are mediocre for a MSW runner and he meets some who have raced and done okay so far. Unless he takes money, he is one to pass on and watch to see what he has to offer.
6 Noble Empire by Empire Maker, for Pletcher, he has made 5 life starts, but only 1 this year. His last start was in January at Tampa, where he finished 2nd and ran a huge speed figure, one that towers over this group, but then on the shelf until now. I'm sure there is a story as to why that is. I want to see how he looks. If he is right, he blows these away. If. He works steady like he is a sound horse, so maybe it was something else.
In case you are interested
Cool names today
Hushed Hijinks
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