Race 1 MDN CLM 25k 5F
Summary The ML choices are pretty suspect as win candidates, although they are likely to be in the mix of the race and effect who can win this. Very good race to find a price who takes advantage of their flaws. Three fts in this group, who need to be watched closely as a fresh face likely plays in this pretty soft bunch.
1 Pugin by Palace Malice, makes his 8th life start. He has been 2nd in his last two and the last start was at this meet. He seems to run alternating higher and then lower speed figures, which, if holds, means he will run poorer overall this time than last time. He tries sprining here, and he started his career out with three sprint tries, all on the dirt, at a higher level than this with also ran results. He is possible, but I would probably go to others before him. I suppose they are trying him sprinting on turf as he has not done that exact thing before, to see if they can get him over the hump or not. Early scratch.
2 Twirling Fire by Twirling Candy, a horse who ran very high speed figures from his first life start right until he retired. His dam made one life start, a win, ran a huge speed figure, and then never ran again. This guy, 6 starts in, has run slower, consistent, mediocre speed figures and races, but he meets mostly similar today. He resembles the 1 horse in many respects but he will sprint again on the turf at the same price as last time when he was 3rd. He is 4-1 ML. I would use him if I could get 8-1, but otherwise use his spot on the ticket for something with better value.
3 Todaystheday by Verrazano, he is the ML choice after making 3 life starts to this point. He gets that race office respect because he goes out for the current flavor of the month hot young trainer, and finishing 2nd in this class while doing exactly what he did last time after coming off the dirt and shortening up. However, he didnt win that start so while he will be a short price today, he isnt a lock. He will have to be seen. Some of the Verrazanos run, others develop a sour attitude and begin to regress as they go along from my experience. Attitude will be important for this one if you are going to accept the short price. His speed figures dont tower over the two inside him.
4 Nitro Time by Munnings out of a Big Brown mare, he is a homebred making all the variable changes in his 3rd try at racing. Shipping, dropping, going shorter and getting on the turf. He needs a change as he ran a horrid speed figure last time that probably wouldnt win a 4 claimer at Mahoning or Fort Erie. He drops out of two MSW efforts, but its debatable if that is a drop as he wasnt even competitive last time. I guess you could argue that since he went to the lead and then caved in to finish 12th with that horrid speed figure that sprinting is a better option and dropping means he doesnt have to fend off better horses when he starts to tire. That is still in question. Being that he has a Big Brown dam, I will go on the theory he is a stopper and non trier when asked to fight for it, and pass on him.
5 Mindship Q by Midshipman, who is by Unbridleds Song, he was an 8k yearling, has run 6 times, with 3 3rds and generally finishes on the edges. He is just the type of rat that steps up and wins races like this, without taking any special tote money. Watch him closely in the post parade to see if he looks live. If he is, he could surprise this bunch.
6 Valeroso by Uncaptured, he has yet to make the ticket in 5 starts and his speed figures are consistently a cut lower than the contenders in here. He is hard to make on paper and would need something like unusual money to entice me to use him unless I see something else that I like.
7 Forty Flash by Forty Grams, who is by Distorted Humor, has shown little to date but might slight improvement each start. He has room to improve in start 4. I will look him over to see if he looks good in the flesh. On paper he is still a ways away from winning form in this type of class.
8 V. I. P. Who a fts by Gone Astray, he is a homebred who shows only mediocre works, all on dirt, yet he debuts on turf. These types scare me as its possible they are hiding his ability to cash a big ticket. I will have to see him to make a proper call on him. On the fence as to whether to use him, as this race screams fts winner.
9 Old Man Mac a fts by Exaggerator, out of a Heatseeker mare, Heatseeker by Giants Causeway, so he has a turf pedigree on the bottom side. He has not shown much speed to date in his 3 works and Id say he is likely out for experience and a test ride to see what they need to do with him going forward. Unless he takes unusual money, he is a pass for me, but watch for future plays.
10 Blame Charlie by Adios Charlie, makes his 3rd life start, goes shorter and goes to the turf first time. He has room for improvement and a sharp veteran trainer in his corner. He has a longshot chance if he can improve a bit more and the changes help him. He could be the one in this group. The trainer is also the owner and the breeder of this one, so he has had him since day one. He also trained the dam, who made 10 starts with 2 2nds but never won a race.
11 Rub My Belly a fts by Point of Entry, he shows decent enough 4f works to suggest he can contend for the lead early. However, he has an outside post and thus, he is in for a long trip. One to watch but hard to like today based on his draw and that he has never raced before. He easily could be stacked up 8 high before they get to the turn and never see the fence.
12 Deputy Indy by Prospective, who is by Malibu Moon, thus he is more likely to want to go long, he is a homebred making his 4th life start. Post 12 in a sprint will not help his chances, which were slim to begin with. He is not impossible off his last speed figure, if, he sits out of it, they battle hard and he swings around them all. That is a lot ot ask of a cheap maiden who has yet to finish in the top 3 from post 12, so I am inclined to not use him.
Race 3 Maiden Special Weight 5F
Summary Five fts and one sts. As usual, it makes for tough handicapping. Have to see them to see who is mature and who is acting like a green colt. Some very fast types who are likely to send and battle.
1 Chieficia fts by Into Mischief, was bought back by his owners as a yearling for 145k, then sold off for 40k as a 2yo in training. That is not a good sign. His dam was not much of a racehorse, His works to date do not insprire confidence that he can match up with this type of company. He will have to be seen.
2 Mutaraafeq fts by Frosted, who has sired some ready to go runners around Gulfstream this year. This one has a Rahy dam, so bred for the turf. He is a homebred for Shadwell and Pletcher, so he is likely to take heavy money on debut. He hasnt wowed in workouts, but Pletcher generally doesnt start them until they are ready, so that is something to consider. The dam made 9 life starts and never won a race.
3 Rockstar Ro by Gemologist, a 4 time starter already ships in from Kentucky with good speed figures and decent results, but meets possibly a very tough and well meant crew here. Not impossible, but he will have to bring his A game and a bit more to get over the hump with these. HIs dam won 2 races and 200k while chasing some stakes level company, but like her son, finished 2nd and 3rd a lot more than won. That has to be considered. I am sure he will break his maiden, just not sure it is in this tough spot. He will go back to the turf and shorten back to 5f, which is how he started at Indiana when he was 3rd then, against likely a much easier group than these though.
4 Lucky Law an Irish bred by No Nay Never who goes out fts for Biancone, he showed impressive works when he was sold as a 2yo in training in Europe and shipped here to race. He shows 2 bullet works preparing for the debut. He will have to be seen, but he is race ready on the speed angle where some of these might be a few away. He is probably the post time favorite, in say 9-5 range.
5 Shaftesbury a fts by Uncle Mo who is another for Pletcher in this race. His dam was a 4 time winner by Lemon Drop Kid. Repole paid 675k for him as a big ticket yearling, but to a guy like that, he doesnt even blink when he signs those tickets. Generally, his works have been slow relative to the type he has to run against here, but being that he has a Lemon Drop Kid dam, he is probably being pointed for longer races next year, and this is just the start for him. I dont prefer him today in a sprint where he simply might be fast enough or close enough to win the race.
6 No Que No sts by More Than Ready, out of a Broken Vow dam, a homebred who ran okay on debut, getting 3rd, and switches to turf for his 2nd start and cuts back a shade. While he isnt technically dropping in class, he meets very legit high end types here and that wouldnt be said about the first group he met, which was also a short field. I think he is overmatched on the win front, just unlucky he caught such a tough field this time. He does show very fast 3f works, so likely to seek the lead and effect the outcome. If many of the young prospects bomb out, he isnt impossible to be there if he gets ahead early.
7 Midnight Tequila a 4 time starter already by Justin Phillip, he moves up from maiden claimers to meet this tough legit MSW group. He is hard to like based on that and his trainer runs a lot of impossible longshots as a rule. Pass and watch for his likely return to claimers.
8 Sanctified fts by Point of Entry is a homebred out of a Broken Vow dam. He shows blistering works at 3f and generally has trained well. He is likely to try and wire this bunch. Can he hold his speed at 5f, that is the question.
Race 4 MDN CLM 20k 6F
Summary Two clear favorites who look good on paper with the variables of change considered, but are beatable enough by a few in here who look like they have a legit chance to step up.
1 Water Wizard by Flashstorm, who is by Storm Cat, has started 13 times with 2 2nd place finishes to show for her owner, trainer and breeder. He certainly is patient, I will give him that. She will go longer here and try the dirt again. Hard to like on paper and her winless record, but I suppose these types win races like this every now and then if you want to take a flyer on a bomb like her.
2 Gilded Lady by Tapiture, goes for Cibelli, shipping in with the rest of her barn from Monmouth and not racing since late August. She will go longer for her 4th life start. She dropped from MSW to claiming last time, vastly improved her speed rating and nabbed 2nd. Obviously, she is a big contender here. Tapiture get can be difficult sometimes, so that is something to watch for. Otherwise, she is a player with this crew. Cibelli has them ready when they race, layoff or not. She tried MSW here last winter, but is more reasonably spotted this time. Cibelli races to win, and that is where this one fits.
3 Miss Uncaptured by Uncaptured, a 6 time starter, raced twice at GPW in 2018, then went to Laurel for 3 starts and was no good, then off more than a year when she resurfaced at GPW last time in October, and didnt run hardly at all, 7th now in her last 3 starts. She has worked 3 times since but nothing spectacular. I cant make her at all and will have to see some progress for future plays. They have kept her around all this time. They must see something the rest of us dont. I guess her 2nd place finish at MSW two years ago gives them hope she can return to that eventually.
4 Theycallmeprincess by Currency Swap who is by High Cotton, is a 4yo 2nd time starter who has been off more than a year. She debuted 3rd in a MSW about 18 months ago. High Cotton throws a lot of lame ones. So, she might fit that mold. She will have to be seen. Her 4 works prepping for the return are too slow to think she does much today. Lets see her and make a call for later races if she makes it to another start this meet.
5 Uptown Queen by Big Drama, a homebred sts for Fawkes, who trains a lot of Big Drama foals, and i think trained him during his racing career. She was 2nd on debut and goes longer here. She looks like a major player. As a sts who is almost 4, I want to see her parade to see how she handled the wear and tear of an actual race the first time. If she passes that test, she is one to overweight on the tickets.
6 Good Shabbos by Munnings, an 8 time starter who goes out for Breen, she has been 2nd or 3rd 7 out of 8 starts, but 3rd and 4th in her last two, all MSW races, and so, wanting to get her over the hump, they dive into a claimer here. Will that do the trick. I dont know. Breen is sharp, so I am not likely to go against his opinion as to where she fits to win the race. She was a 190k yearling and in for 20k today, so clearly she has not panned out and they are about to cut bait with her today, as she is a likely claim. Knowing that, I suspect they think they have picked the right level to win with her on the way out the barn door for good.
7 Chattin With Jenny by Car Talk, an Irish bred son of Bernardini out of a Deputy Minister dam, she is a Washington bred who goes for a trainer who has a lot of horses that dont win, and she fits that bill at 0 for 17 and a week short of her 6th birthday. They write a 12.5 claimer and at best, she should at least try that bunch. Toss.
8 You're the Best by Malibu Moon, a 6 time starter who is the 2nd ML choice, goes for Barboza, will drop in class and go shorter. In her last 2 she has dropped out of MSW into claimers, gotten 2nd and 3rd and goes lower today. That all makes sense. Her speed figures are slightly higher than the rest of the field as a whole, and she is fairly consistent about it. Likely the one to beat.
9 Comp'd a fts, a homebred by Competitive Edge he shows ok enough works to compete with this bunch, and thus, I would use her as a protection add. Post 9 for a fts is an issue though if others with more experience want the lead more than she does.
10 Addi a 130k yearling by Wicked Strong with 4 starts under her belt, she will ship in, drop in class and change surface here after showing so so speed and overall finishes. Another who is possible off all the changes in a race where something is going to respond to that and many will just run the same. She has been off since April and makes her first start at Gulfstream.
Race 7 Maiden Special Weight 7F
Summary Very tough race of green horses that have super high connections and aspirations but likely not motivated to try and win today. Follow the board if anything to find one who might be live and interested today. Otherwise, a race to watch closely for future plays.
1 Tayet a sts by Cairo Prince out of a Street Cry dam who they paid 150k for as a yearling, she ships in from Churchill where she was 7th on debut and ran an ok speed figure to suggest start two might show some improvement. She was on the lead that day but gave it up in the stretch. Perhaps they will change tactics here.
2 Make Me Laugh a 185k yearling by Distorted Humor out of an Unbridleds song dam, makes her 3rd life start, tried the grass last time and went longer, but now goes back to the dirt and shortens up a bit. She has been 4th twice with similar speed figures and it looks as if they are looking to find the right mix of distance and surface, while maintaining her at the MSW level for now. Based on that, maybe they have it right today and she is a player here if they do.
3 Zaajel a fts by Street Sense, a homebred for Shadwell, and Pletcher, she showed high speed in early November when training, was not race, perhaps not one for the GPW surface, then eased back to top speed with her last workout before this engagement. Lets see how she looks in the ring and parading. She looks very viable first out if she passes those tests.
4 Bonnie's the Best a fts by Distorted Humor, her mother raced 6 times but did not win a race. She was a 95k yearling purchase. Now owned by the trainer but not certain if he paid up then or bought her later. In any event, she will start out here in MSW, showed a bullet 3f workout when she first started working, and has worked longer and evenly going forward off that although not as quick. I suspect she is ready but wont be pushed too hard today. Pass and watch.
5 Cajole by Flatter, a 3 time starter already who ships from Laurel and shortens up a bit today, she has 2 2nds from those 3 starts to date. She will have to improve her speed rating to take these down, but since they are shortening her up after starting out short and going longer, they must think that is where she does her best work. Shot.
6 Breehazel a fts by Sano, by Distorted Humor. She has worked steady, but slow, for this group as a whole. I will watch her today to see if they are just saving it for the race or she will need a class adjustment to be viable and where that likely is.
7 Mail Order by Liams Map, a fts for Mott, who is known not to have is fts ready to win when they debut. She was a 300k yearling and worked evenly so far. I will watch and pass for today.
8 Unbridled d'Oro a fts by Medaglia Doro, a homebred for Fipke, trained by Pletcher. She is out of a legit Grade 1 winner but has been brought to the race seemingly not as sharpened up as she might have been, suggesting the long game is the big stakes next spring and summer. Doesnt mean she doesnt have enough talent to take these down anyway, but a short price wouldnt be in order in my opinion. She is the lukewarm ML choice.
9 Shannon by Nyquist a Derby winner by Uncle Mo, the 2nd starter in the field for trainer Matz, ships in from Laurel and going longer for her 2nd lifetime start. She was a 205k yearling, then a 290k 2yo in training purchase. She was 4th in that start at Laurel and ran a speed figure that plays with this bunch if she goes forward and does a shade better. She draws outside for her second straight start. If she does okay here and draws better next time, she could be a price play then. She is up against it with the post today when she isnt the best on paper to begin with.
10 Mission Up a fts on the dirt by Noble Mission, suggesting this is a test ride for when she gets on turf which is her breeding suggestion. She is a homebred who has worked steadily, but much slower than the group she meets as a whole. Pass and watch today.
In case you wondered.
Good Shabos
Cool Horse Names
Theycallmeprincess
Rub My Belly
Topo Grigio
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