Race 1 MDN CLM 20k 7 1/2F
Summary. A mixed bag with about half no chance shots while the other half all have reasons to step up, but arent certain to do so. Likely a good race to get a price on something that takes unusual money and/or looks great parading and warming up. Tough race to make just one horse on paper, which makes it a good chance to make money if you can pick 3 or 4 price horses and get one of them to come through.
1 Gran Patron by Poseidons Warrior, who is by Speightstown, and like him, throws many who are very fast for as long as they can last, and somewhat tough relatively speaking if they get their own way, this one makes his 4th life start and 2nd of this meet, and has showed little to date in terms of overall speed. He will go longer today and try the turf for the first time. He will be a big longshot and actually rises in class slightly to get on the turf. I suppose they are just trying him out to see if the distance and surface change will help. I will wait to see if they do. Looks like wild stabs in the dark to me and a class adjustment to Tampa is the more likely elixer he will need to be competitive. He was an early scratch.
2 Capture the Crown by Uncaptured, makes his 5th life start, the 3rd this year after a long gap of more than a year after his first two starts last year. He will go shorter here, but as his speed overall so far has been subpar, even for a group like this, and the best he has managed is 7th in his debut last year, and two 9ths in his return this year, I can't use him without seeing something positive first. Massive longshot.
3 Rey de Ligas bred in Chile but not raced there, has had two tries at this circuit, neither impressive. He was 3rd of 4 in a MSW taken off the turf which decimated the field size, the 4th one was no runner at all, the top 2 distanced this guy. He followed that up with a 4th place finish last time, and a much higher speed figure which certainly plays with this bunch. That was on the turf, and he comes back on that surface today and goes longer, obviously his intended surface and distance. His trainer seems to get them to run and thus, he is a player in here. He also cuts his tag from 35k to 20k. I suspect that based on his breeding, he is going to try and wire them. I'm not certain he can get the entire distance, but he will likely try.
4 Treasure Run by Treasure Beach, so bred for the turf, has had 13 tries and has yet to make the ticket, while running so so speed figures for this type of group. He will cut back slightly here. His trainer is a very low percentage winner, but he does occasionally bring in some crazy longshots in races like this. That has to be considered in a field like this of cheap horses.
5 Call Bros by Sky Mesa is a homebred making his 8th start and is the ML favorite. He has several factors in his favor, being that he gets Paco Lopez, has been 2nd and 3rd in his last two and his speed figures are consistently faster than most of these. Yet, he is a 7 time maiden, so, like many Sky Mesa's, he knows how to get beat near the line when he should not. One might argue he could earn a good buck this meet by being 2nd 3 times and then waiting to break his maiden near the end of the meet when the big players go elsewhere so he is viable at the next level against the locals next summer in short fields filled with pretenders. One could argue that. i will be that one to argue that. Take note that he ran an unbelievable speed figure in his first lifetime start, then a horrid one in his 2nd start, and since, they have kept him even, but not good enough to graduate. That one bad effort was his only try on dirt, so he is one dimensional as well, just another reason to keep him the bridesmaid a while longer.
6 Realtor Danny D by Big Drama, a late starting 3yo this year, making his 2nd start, after debuting this year at the end of the GPW meet after racing 3 times last year then shutting down almost a year. This will be his 5th life start, and he showed some promise before shut down. Is he ready to pop today? That's the question, as his previous speed would likely make him a major player here. Big Drama's seem to just pop at odds after a few mediocre starts and if he follows that pattern, today or next time is likely the time to play for that. He sprinted last time for 12.5k, but goes much longer today and jacks his claiming tag up to 20k, so his price will be good if you are playing him. I want to see how he appears in the flesh, but he is a useful add if you are going against CallBros. He has enough speed to beat him if he is fit and ready. He was a short price last time on his return and while 8th, he wasnt beat a long way. Watch the betting pattern on him. He gets Panici, who brings in a lot of longshots like this.
7 Jupiter Blues by Astrology, who is by A P Indy, has been off more than a year, and goes for his trainer owner who brings in some crazy longshots you dont see coming. This one will drop from 50k last year and start out at 20k, going on the turf, which was the intention last year but the race was taken off the turf, he went to the lead as a big longshot, then backed away sharply enough to get a 0 speed figure, and now retools a year later. One to look at is he is yet another in this race who could turn the car around just like that and get off at the win exit. Or he could be way up the track. He is just that type. He will be a first time gelding today on his return.
8 Sierra Cat a 5yo by Factum, who is by Storm Cat and was a European runner imported here but did no good at all and only made 23k in his life, this one makes only his 4th life start for a trainer I dont know at all. He is a homebred who only started his career this year, so something probably happened when he was younger training down. He shows nothing so far to indicate he can run with the better ones in here. I have to see something positive. Lets see him compete and then he can be considered. If he blows up the tote board today at 80-1, I will miss the party this time.
9 Big Perm by Noble Mission, so bred for the turf, and thus he has been scratched a lot this summer and fall because of all the off the turf racing. This will be his second start of the meet, so he comes back on a two week rotation, got slightly shorter after finishing 3rd last time for this claiming tag. Clearly the connections feel they have a beat on him. He is a decent mid level claiming horse at about a mile on the turf. He raced at Monmouth all summer before shipping here and being scratched out many times, and was forced onto the dirt a few times there. Last time he got what he wanted, and produced his best life speed figure by far, one that blows this field away if he can duplicate that. As a 7 time maiden, that is in question, but just off his last race, he is the likely favorite or co favorite. Hard not to use him, but I wouldn't take a very short price. Noble Missions seem to lack a little grit in the stretch from my experience, even though they are fast and legit otherwise.
10 Jealous Eyes by Will Take Charge goes shorter here, after shipping in last time from Keeneland and getting a new trainer for the same owner. That was a huge class drop but this time he stays at the same class level for a sharp trainer who bring in quite a few price winners as she tinkers with ones just like this. He took quite a bit of money last time, being a 10-1 ML but going off at 5-1 with one late hit, but ending up 9th nonetheless. He comes back on two weeks this time and keeps the same jockey, who is a high end jockey with this type of horse. While 9th, his speed figure is good enough to beat most of these if not all of them. He is a price option if he takes less money this time due to the finish last time.
11 Future Prince by Amiras Prince,who is a European turf bred but low profile type, and has sired a few okay runners, this one makes start number 9 and will be a massive longshot. He has yet to make the top 4 in his career, 7th in his last 4 starts, and gets the outside post this time on top of that. He switches from sprint to route here but stays on turf. I can't see him off the current variables.
Race 3 MDN CLM 16k 6F
Summary. Several who are capable, but inconsistent and may or may not show up. That kind of cheap maiden claimer race. Wouldn't be afraid to take a price or a flyer one of the others if they gave me reason to do that.
1 Pa Encima a fts by Bodemeister, didnt sell well as a yearling and shows so so ok mediocre works, thus debuts for 16k and will have to be seen. Likely a watch, wait and pass today.
2 Cobb by Brethren, an Arindel homebred who gets a new trainer today. He got 2nd last time in his 7th lifetime start, and being a 2yo who started the first week of May, has been going a long time. He has suspect variables. He figures on paper, but he did last time too when he didnt get it done at 2-1. He looks like a good one to go against if he is the post time fave. They have given up the MSW chase, but he still arrives a maiden after two tries at claimers.
3 True Identity by Commissioner, makes start number 7 for his trainer owner and his second of the meet. He will go shorter here and perhaps that will help as his speed figures are less than inspiring. He shows a 2nd and 3rd with better speed figures in the previous two. I guess he is possible if he turns it around and the distance cut back helps him finish. Shot.
4 Exxtop by Exagerrator, a homebred makes his 4th life start. He comes off two 2nd place finishes with similar speed figures which play with this bunch. Obviously a logical paper contender. Likely many in here, he will go slightly shorter. His trainer is high percentage. If he passes the walking ring and post parade inspection, he is tough to go against at a short price.
5 Sidarth by Temple City, who sires a lot of good turf runners, but seems to do okay enough with dirt runners, runs for the 5th shortens up for the 2nd consecutive race and has run okay overall, but not a wow type. His best speed figure, two back when he finished 2nd would do with these. Much like many in here, whomever shows up today and has the better day is the probable winner. Many of these are variable in terms of when they show up or dont.
6 Master of Disaster by Khozan, another making start 5, making no change in terms of variables, runs about the same speed figures as the others and was 2nd two back. Very similar to the one above. He has a longshot jockey and a trainer who brought in a longshot bomb the other day. Value play on all that, but not one you would have confidence in as a single horse to play by himself in this race. In his favor is that he raced his first two races at MSW, and he clearly is not that quality, so this is really his 3rd start where he can be considered as a viable option, and thus, he is one 2nd out of 2 legit starts, while others have had more chances with these types.
7 Royal Meeting by Uncaptured, makes his 6th life start. He also has a Rahy dam, which is a strike against him in my book as he tends to stamp them as hangers. He has a similar profile to the two above, same amount of starts, 2nd two back, lots of chances but cant seal the deal, so so claimer type. Based on his breeding, he is the one I would toss of that trio.
8 Jr Speed a sts by Speightster, goes longer and drops in class, and thus, he has promise relative to some of the others in this race, and goes for a trainer who can make them go. He will need to improve, but he has room to and bears watching in the post parade and on the betting board. That will decide for me if he is to be used as one of many in here. He sold for 85k as a yearling, but was dumped off for 12k as a 2yo. That isnt good, but he is in for 16k, so maybe he has found the sweet spot.
9 Little Dude by Tapiture out of a Harlans Holiday dam, he has hang written all over him. Also a very similar profile to some above, 5 starts, mediocre results, goes slightly shorter here, and similar, inconsistent speed figures. I suppose he is a protection add, but terrible value if he goes off 4-1 or less.
10 Captain Kirk a fts by Conveyance, who is by Indian Charlie out of a Holy Bull dam, won some minor stakes and was 15th in the Derby. He will have to be seen to assess what he can do. He shows a fast and improved work two weeks ago. If he takes money based on that, he is one to add in a minor way on the chance he has more and many of these revert to the bad day part of their Sybil personality.
11 Globaltroublecoco by Global Response who is by A P Indy out of an Elusive Quality dam, shows many of the bad attitude traits of Elusive Quality and in fact has caused trouble in many races, dumping her rider last time. 7 starts, no top 3 finishes and a bad post. She can consider herself tossed.
Race 4 MDN CLM 25k 1m
Summary. This race was not handicapped as I didnt have enough time to get to it. A good lesson. If you cant do it right, just pass the race. There will always be more races but if you bet races you shouldn't and lose, you have to win that money back to just get even, which makes no sense.
Race 11 Maiden Special Weight 1m
Summary. 10 horse field, 4 first time starters with top pedigrees and connections, and the balance are split between 2nd time starters and an equal amount with slightly more starts, all shippers and many changing distance and three changing surface. A tough one that mostly you will need to see them on the track to delete a few and make the race playable if you can go against the favorite. That is probably going to be the 4th time starter from the outside going for Pletcher with a hall of fame jockey on top. Likely to be overbet, but not for sure one to go against.
1 Girl Dad by Malibu Moon and purchased for 125k at the 2yo in training sale in March, the most experienced of the bunch with 4 starts under his belt, and two on the board finishes out of those 4 starts. He ships in from New York, 3 weeks ago being 2nd there and 3rd before that. He has progressed nicely and will cut back to a mile today. Obvious contender who might bring a decent price due to the high profile of many in here. He worked a light trip last Saturday, similar to how he prepped for his last start to keep him fit for this race.
3 Kentucky Pharoah by American Pharoah, makes his 3rd start as a homebred for Calumet. His dam won a million bucks and a couple of nice high end stakes in Canada, and placed in many others. He seems to be progressing nicely as he upped his speed figure in start 2 in Kentucky and now winters down here, I'm sure in the hope he is a Florida Derby type or better. Lets see what he can do in this seemingly tough and deep field. Some of the A Pharoah's are goofs, bad actors and dont run straight, so that is something to look for. Not all though. He throws a wide variety of types. His dam has a turf pedigree and he gets on the turf for the first time today. That is something to consider.
4 He'spuregold by Vancouver, an Aussie bred who has two in this race, This guy has a very strong Turf pedigree and is a homebred sent out by top trainer Nihei, coming off a 3rd in the debut in Kentucky with an impressive speed figure for a fts. He will come right back, same distance and surface while shipping for the winter. Big shot on paper. Big ML and he might slip through the cracks at the window if that ML holds.
5 Ultimate Gift a fts by Pioneerof The Nile, one of two starters in this race for Pletcher, and very high end connections who paid 350k for him, but has not shown great speed training so far, not relative to many of these. 4-1 ML, but likely to go off closer to 8-1 or even a bit higher. I'm likely to exclude him and include the 4 in his place.
6 Not Stormy a sts by Got Stormy who sold for 11k as a yearling, so obviously, he is the low profile horse in this bunch. There might be times this winter if he sticks around he catches much softer fields than he meets here, but today is not that day. He ships in from Belmont, his only start in October and goes longer here, off a speed figure that isnt anywhere near the ballpark with this bunch to hit the ticket, he would have to show vast improvement to be competitive. I will pass on him today and watch him for a better spot to see if he is the type that will do that day or a bad favorite on maybe a class drop.
7 Advanced Placement by Point of Entry, fts who shows mediocre works at best, he will have to be seen. Off those works and his pedigree, he is overmatched here. Being a homebred, I'm sure the long game is in play here and he could be 3 starts away from being a win candidate.
8 Van Dusen a fts by Vancouver, this guy has been sold 3 times, as a weanling, then again for a small or no profit at 115k as a yearling, then sold off for 20k as a 2yo. None of that is encouraging. In spite of all that, he has worked well prepping for these and a bullet sharp 3f workout on Sunday, yet he will go long to start his career. Seems like a prep race for a try in a turf sprint, for possibly a 32k claiming tag down the road. He will be watched today with that in mind.
9 Public Information a sts for Chad Brown by Into Mischief and his top owner, his dam was 2nd in her debut, then won the next start in a MSW, so she was ready early then only made 4 more life starts, chasing stakes horses and being a mid pack type. The connections paid 400k for him based on his pedigree I would think and he switches to turf and goes longer after finishing 8th at Keeneland in his debut. He is the 3-1 ML here and if he were to go off as favorite, he would be a bad favorite, win or lose. HIs speed figure in race 1 doesnt stack up with many of these. He will simply be bet on his sale price and connections.
10 Courageously a fts for Casse and Oxley who they paid 625k for as a yearling. He is by Quality Road. His dam by Empire Maker made 200k, raced a long time and won some minor stakes at Charles Town and Ellis Park. He could be anything, but right now, he is just a yearling with a big ticket hanging over his head. His works leading up to this start are fast enough to suggest he can compete if he is mature enough to do that. Lets see how he looks and acts pre race. On the fence on him.
11 Munqad by War Front, a homebred and Pletcher's other one in here, will accept the outer post and makes start 4. He seems on the edges so far, not horrible though, and ships in from Keeneland. Pletcher sometimes takes his time with the big time homebred types, as he knows those owners will wait if the horse is projected to be worth it. Thus, he hasnt tagged him yet, he will try him shorter and on turf today. Wide open race and he is just another who will have to step up to beat what looks like a deep and tough crew of prospects.
Cool horse names
Shes One Mad Momma
Diamond Oops
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