WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 9, 2016

RACE 1

1 Howmacscanasta blasted out for the lead from the advantageous post 6 and cut the mile to the far turn, when she was challenged and beat into submission. She packed it in completely coming out of the turn. I don't see enough from her to suggest she is a player tonight. She is probably looking at the nw last 3 class at London after this tilt unless she turns it around. I will watch her to see if she is viable with those. She does have very good gate speed, and that will play at that track.

2 Charming Hill avoids Bring Me Diamonds and Miss Jones Shooter here. She also draws a good post for the trip she likes----leave out and be up close, stay in a long way, and find a live helmet to carry her and break the wind. She is a player for a price in with these.

3 Glory Jean  was backing away badly last week at the half off a soft rail ride. I have to see something positive before I consider her viable.

4 Sr Beach Babe is yet to race on this circuit, and now has missed a month off some sickness. None of that is good.  Its a bit suspicious to me that she was entered for nw3 and then sick and now comes back healthy, one would assume, in a bottom conditioned claimer. I have to see her parade. I'm inclined to toss her.

5 Sand Slinger  drew the 2 hole last week in her first start on the circuit after also missing more than a month. She tried to leave, but post 2 can be a really bad post at this track, especially if the 1 horse leaves enough to make you take back and you cant clear that one. That is what happened. J Mac took back, and then wisely let the eventual winner in front of him so he would have live cover when he came back out to make a bid. She tried to go with that one, and was right on her helmet until she stepped on the gas and this one was left behind. She did pace hard to the wire, and has a bit of grit. I could list her as short last week and a victim of her post to some extent. She is a very viable longshot here in my eyes. J Mac goes to Nixon's one, so P Mac picks up the mount.

6 Sobeautifulsowhat  did not impress me in her qualifier and her race lines are weak to be diplomatic. She is a homebred and has been through Virgil Morgan's barn. There aren't many out there better than him with this kind of horse. Pass for me.

7 Boozer Bruiser cannot be used from what I've seen of her. I will wait to see some evidence she is returning to the type she was last year where she could compete with this kind off the right trip. I don't see anything yet.

8 Nips Beach Girl  left out hard last week in her first try at this track, got away well, pulled first up, buried the leader, but gave cover to the live winner on her back and was beat to the wire by that one, who is razor sharp lately. She looks tough on paper and is the likely favorite, but no cinch. I'd use her in the exotics, but others also. Her last quarters are consistently a shade weak for a winner generally. Post does not help when JJ will have to use her hard once to get the lead if that is the plan. Allard took the lower tag this week, but still got the short end of the post position draw stick.

9 Howmacfiesty changes barns as her trainer is suspended for cheating. I will have to see her on the track. Post 9 likely deters me from using her. It did her in at Flamboro as well.

10 Acefourtyfour Alex is the only one to take the high tag, and gets post 10. She is up against it for the win with that in play. I'd think she can make the ticket, but I will roll the dice against her for the picks.

RACE 2

1 Hot Spot Hanover had some tough luck last time, as she wanted the lead, but was forced to go back in the 2 hole, then pinned in the rest of the way, trying to come up the rail but shut off near the wire. Post 1 likely means she will not get control again. She has been a very consistent and sometimes dominant force in the fall and into the start of winter. She has also been facing and beating or competing well against far better than all of these have. I think she is ripe to go down off some sort of trip problem, but I'd have to use her in anything multi race. Post 1 can get her beat here, and Fillion is making a lot of tactical mistakes since they have come to Woodbine. That is a factor in my mind until he gets his act back together.

2 Norcross Blue Chip is making a huge class jump to tackle some of these, but she has stepped up before. Her fast record was taken this year at Mohawk, and she has won her last two with decent posts. I hesitate to leave her off any exotics, but I probably will. She might be raced to get a decent showing towards making the final. If she does show she is one of the players in the series, I could be convinced to start using her towards the next leg and final .

3 Shooteronbye doesn't look like she has the class or speed to go with the better ones in here. I will pass. She will have to change my mind and do something she does not show on the page.

4 Marvalous Jet was a solid 2nd off a month off last time, and she has a fine record of winning races. She looks like the one to take down the chalk if that is going to play out. She will need more speed this time, but has showed it already in the States.

5 Queenofthejungle  is 1 for 30 and looks over her head for the win slot in this race. She can certainly pick up money though. She is very good at that. Her final quarters are consistently not good enough.

6 Misty De Vie has progressed rapidly this winter. You see a few each year that do that. She has put it together. However, she continues to start very slow, and its not as easy to pass winners, and then winners of nw2, or nw3, who also could have beaten her soundly on the way up the ladder with her. The rail horse has beaten her soundly 3 times on the page. I cant see her beating that one to the wire. Pass.

7 Docs Diva has made 2 gate breaks in the last 3 starts and gets a barn change. She has earned a solid buck this year by making a lot of starts and picking up shares. She is hard to like off her current form. Pass.

8 Icthelight Hanover makes her 2nd start for Zeron, and that is a potent angle to consider. If I was to go to a 3rd one in this race for the exotics, she'd likely be the one. Post 8 is an issue. I'd probably roll the dice against her this time because of that added obstacle. It could come back to bite me. It's a gamble.

RACE 3

1 Willyorwonthe  looked like a nice colt prospect at times last year, but he began to make breaks and he has continued that spotty form this year. He is 2nd time lasix  and picks up Saftic on his return here, but gets the rail. In a race where most, including me would go very deep in the pick 5, I'd be inclined to add him to the list. He will be a big price, but he is not impossible.

2 Rule of Hall changes barns to Dagfin, which obviously gets your attention. For that reason, and that one only, I will add her. She hasn't shown me yet a reason to think that wont make any difference. Maybe she does that tonight. Or maybe she turns on a dime, like Odds On Amethyst did for Dagfin when he got him. She took a fast win at Pocono when she is right. Odds On Amethyst also had a fast record and a whack of bad lines and issues when he arrived too. Beware.

3 Facing Justice made an interesting post parade appearance last week, coming out on a full gallop and doing that much of the time before the race. He was all business when they raced though, and many Justice Hall's are like that. Many also just gallop and never stop. He shows no lines to that effect, but he also shows 1 win in 2 years racing, at Miami Valley in the slop on a night when many probably weren't viable. I counted 5 others I want to use ahead of him. I'm on the fence if he should be the 6th one in addition to them.

4 Dunvegan Don didnt have the year that was expected of him at 3, and never won a race. That happens to many of his kind. Holland is a very low percentage trainer, as you can see by his average. He has burned the chalk players two times in a row at Flamboro, and his last quarters are just not good enough. He is one I will leave off and take my chances. He looks like the type that finds ways to lose but gets bet on his bank account and company he has kept.

5 Justice Jet  has high speed and wins lots of races, but also is very prone to blow up, like many of these. I'd have to use him. On his best day and behavior, he would daylight most of these. You could argue his last 3 posts for purses were not favorable. Two times trailing at Yonkers, and the 6 hole at Saratoga.

6 Hubby Number One finally gets post relief and a class drop. Add that to post 6, which favors his style if he can keep it together, and he is an automatic use in the exotics. He is no cinch though. He is prone to blow up at any time if he isn't exactly right and the track is off even a shade.

7 Stormont Wizard  missed a month between starts last week, and also hooked at least one class dropper and others who had okay form lately. He did okay enough and is a player with this suspect mixed bag of non performers and wannabe's.

8 Stuarts Dynasty draws poorly for the 3rd time in a row. He is hard to like off those lines and breaks. His low amount of starts is also an issue to consider. He has issues. I will pass on him here.

9 Steppin Out qualified last week, although it appears she did not have to. That is curious. Because of her preferred style and her post tonight, along with bad form and some sickness, she is one I wont include in a race I could make a case to include a lot of them.

10 Scary Good total pass for me. I see nothing to suggest he is dangerous here from the 10 hole. He'd have to be a monster price on form and post position. It couldn't be high enough to tempt me.

RACE 4

1 Request for Parole was a very early scratch out of the Preferred last time, and gets some class relief here. But, she is meeting most of the ones she would if that class went this week, less the dominant winner last time. I think she is at least one step over her head.

2 Waasmula has paced 2 really good miles in her last 2. Last week, it just wasn't enough. The week before it was. I suppose she is in the mix, but I will go to others.

3 Wrangler Magic accepted the pocket last week, for once but was no match for the dominant winner. She did beat the rest easily and thus has to be considered a top contender here......if......she doesn't try to cut it and take on all comers. Fillion has been prone to let others do the work the last week or so. If he sticks to that, she has a shot to pop the pocket this time and get there first. She needs every edge to beat these, but she can certainly do that. Her post is very favorable to her style tonight.

4 Yagonnakissmeornot doesn't seem to leave well of late, and last time she was buried in traffic and had no hope. She could upset the apple cart, as it seems happens a lot in this class when so many are so close in talent, ability, form and chance. I'd probably use her in the picks. She will have to do better. Obviously, she has a career license to be able to do that.

5 Delightful Hill  is just not getting it done. She is one who can stay in this class if the Preferred goes next time. Avoiding most of these is probably the right recipe for her to blast off and go full bore the entire mile. In with these, I will pass.

6 Ms Mac N Cheese skipped last week, and Fillion picks against her here. I will as well. She is not doing enough to sway me...yet.

7 Imagine Dragon  did nothing from post 8 last week, and didn't get it done the two times before that. She is possible, but I like others. She doesn't come to play every week. I will bank on that being enough to exclude her.

8 Sayitall Bb  takes a sharp class rise and draws the 8 hole. She looks overmatched with these. If it had not been a Preferred in disguise, I'd like her better. Much the same idea as the 5 in here.

RACE 5

1 True Reflection is hard to like with her penchant to not try and the likely mid pack start this post will deliver. She was passed easily by one who had weak form last time and was 2nd best to her. I will take my chances that she continues to find a way to not be first to the wire. Trevor picked Weller's over her.

2 Velocity Reign  goes first time Weller, but unlike many we have seen come in lately to him, she isn't a young project horse, but an underperforming class mover type. Just the type he can wake up with his formula and make them step up like he has done with Dreamy Fella and Maserati Seelster. I would think she is going down the road here if she has the gate speed to pull that off. She showed that on her bottom line at Dayton, but couldn't sustain. That is where Weller comes in.

3 Whistys Paradise gets some class relief, but has horrid form and is making breaks. She is tough as nails, but I will stick to my assessment that she should be in the 10 claimer. I will play against her making me eat those words.

4 Docs Hollywood  takes a slight class drop, and that is certainly a factor. But, she wasn't winning when she was in with these. I rate her a shot. She has woken up sharply before without much notice, and If I recall correctly, it was with Fillion. Her 1 for 35 record this year is troubling.

5 Shadys M Three looked sounder last week and raced better. She is one of those that will be okay and viable when she happens to be sounder. That isn't often these days, but when it is, she has to be considered a threat. You don't get that visual post parade option for the pick 4, but as a straight win bet, you can look her over parading. If she is good, she is a value play if the odds reflect her 2 for 67 record over the last 2 seasons.

6 Topville Cheetah wired them in 56 and change at Flamboro last time, minus two seconds for the slop. That has to be respected. She is very much a streak horse. Right now, she could be on the front end of the streak. Have to use her in with this bunch. Post 6 gives her the potential start she likes.

7 Three Dreams dropped the line as expected and now hits bottom. The post is a bit better, and Cullen has had her for a month now and for 2 race starts. She has a shot, like a lot do in here.

8 Mappos Moenhay went sharply off form in a cheap claimer at Hoosier and was laid off. She is very prone to do that, then comes back fresh and more viable. Due to post 8, I will just watch her tonight and see what she brings to the table. She could be in for 8 next week, and those are more her kind. At 74 starts the last two seasons, she had reason to need rest. She is now rested...and we will see how ready.

9 Ainsleynoelle draws poorly again, and also was interfered with last week. She is hard to like on form, even with the excuses you could come up with if you looked the page over. That does make her dangerous, but I will go to others and take my chances.

10 Wildcat Beauty habitually does not do good from far outside posts, in any class, even on a drop back to where she has been okay recently. In my mind, it has to be something else in this race. She could get on the ticket if she takes back and follows a live flow. Probably wont get her all the way even if that plays out.

RACE 6

1 Entranced wired a weak bunch...barely, but now moves up and draws the rail, which hasn't worked out for him lately. I will go to others. He is the class mover type now, and this is the move up, not down.

2 E L Rock ships in with decent form, and he has won many races at this track, and others. But, he is probably better suited for the bottom condition. Unfortunately, he won his last race and doesn't fit that. Pass for me. Too many others to like ahead of him.

3 Utopia  is 3rd off the claim for Moreau, and he sent him to Flamboro to take a nice purse last time, which he did. Now he is tagged again, but draws much better than the previous attempt. That gives him a big shot if he is good to go. He sometimes shows up dog lame, so you have to watch that. If he is right, he is a top contender.

4 Totally Ripped  just doesn't quite do enough in this class, but is better one step down. Doesn't mean he cant though. Its not a huge difference between the two, and many move back and forth. I give him a longshot chance if every trip angle goes his way, and against others.

5 Eternal Quest  another B track shipper looking to convert good form there into a better shot here. I'd have a hard time listing him a shot even at the bottom condition here. His overall times don't stack up. Pass.

6 Its Huw You Know  takes a big class drop, but is the buyer beware type. He can just beat himself before he even gets started. I will take a stand against him and play a few others for the pick 4. He is more likely to bomb than behave.

7 Lexus Rocky I suppose is possible, but he would have to show up, get the right trip, and have others not do both of those. I will not bank on that. One level down, I'd think that is more possible. A lot of ones in here probably think they have a shot, and will be leaving hard. That means he has to work hard on the rim to get around them. He has not showed he likes doing that.

8 Harper Blue Chip  I will continue to pass on. He just doesn't look right, and he takes money solely on his previous career as a top notch colt. He isn't anywhere close to that horse anymore.

9 Burnin Money picks up another bad post. Going to the back of the bus isn't something that enhances his chances, and his form is not great either. He always comes back around. I will watch for that and wait for a better post to make use of it.

10 Duh Bubbees drops sharply in class, but that gets negated by the post he draws. I will pass. He doesn't look like the gritty type that overcomes the worst post at this track.

RACE 7

1 Dorabella nipped a very green maiden coming off a long layoff, and bunch behind her who are not much stock. She now has to face winners, with much better form than her.

2 Drift Panic will have to be seen. Soundness might be an issue here, but with these types, they can be fixed up and start performing as most expect they should. If she were to impress me in the post parade, I might go to her.

3 Sportsillustrator picked up a slice last week as most of them were on their hands and knees down the lane, including the winner and 2nd place horse. I don't like the way this one travels, and generally those types have trouble in straight conditioned races with others that look to have an upwardly mobile future. Pass.

4 I Wish You Well had her own way last time, but was easily mowed down by one who followed her all the way and she meets her again. She could turn the tables, and I think has a shot to do so. Those two seem to have a big edge on the rest of this bunch.

5 Life Groove is 2 for 35 life, and rarely as dangerous at this track as she was 2 back. She took her shot that night. I'm not certain she comes to play every week and can compete with the better ones, unless....both of those dont show up or have some horrid trip luck go against them.

6 Zealous Seelster doesn't look viable in conditions at this track to me. She never has. Decent B track horse. Maybe she ages into a solid bottom claimer next year at this track.

7 Seven Angels cant handle maidens at this track. Nuff said.

8 Casimir Operaqueen is likely to be sent out of there again to control her own destiny. If Luc doesn't want to retake she will have to cut it and fend off any pretender that wants to run at her. Will she have enough left if she is asked to work harder this time? I don't know. She does seem determined to pace right to the wire. Your call. I'm on the fence and think it could be either of the top 2 from last time.

9 Collective Wisdom gets some class relief here, and that is a big help. But drawing the 9 hole with a few that want the lead means she is up against a bias in this one. She leaves, she has to be used hard to get the lead and will be attacked. She takes back, she has a lot of road trouble with those that are more likely to be dead cover or roadblocks than a live tow in a decent flow. Only if one of my top 2 run before the gate and don't make it to the first turn. If that happened, the trip scenario completely changes. Neither look like that type.

10 Poetic Dream  draws the 10 hole again. Shit luck for her. Lets see if she can stick a bit closer in the lane this time. Not tonight for me.

RACE 8

1 Docs Sausalito  has developed into a solid mare over the course of the year, and arrives in the Niagara at the right time to take advantage of her improved form and experience. She doesn't need the lead, so the post might not hurt her as much as some. A smaller field means she can not be used hard early and she can pick up cover and save her one potent late move for when it matters. Big shot.

2 Dewar N Soda can certainly get an easier trip here. But she is way over her head with a few of these as I see her.

3 P L Jasmine  is a consistently poor starter who looks about 2 classes behind the top contenders in here. I think she will come around and find a level, but this isn't it. Big longshot.

4 Never Any Doubt  missed a month, then just went around last week, obviously with an eye to this engagement coming up. She looked to be setting up a big try to win the Autumn Final, but she also bears out bad at times late in the mile. She is possible, but others seem to be just a bit better at this moment. That could easily change. Contender.

5 Tempus Seelster  drew post 10 last time and brushed with the pack. Another who was raced easy with the eye to the start of this series. The post favors her here, and this split is pretty soft. I'd think Zeron will take his shot to try and win this week, knowing he is probably going to hook one of the two very viable players in the earlier split next week. She isn't my favorite type, but she isn't meeting a tough bunch here either. I'd call her 3rd, but I expect her to effect the outcome.

6 Art Angel Baby  has terrible form, and will have to be seen parading. These types of shippers can really hurt you if you toss them outright without at least looking them over on a track and barn change. She dominated at Saratoga, but Yonkers didn't work out. Something went wrong. It could easily start going right again. Possible upsetter if I like what I see.

7 Jimbelina  wired a weak bunch last week but she did it well. If she can get that start again and find one to cover her up, she isn't impossible. I like a couple of others, but I'd suggest her as likely enough to add to the pick 4.

8 Stonebridge Pearl  needed to go to Plainridge to get a win. That is a pass for me when I see that. She has not beaten anything else all year, and her lone win at 2 was at Grand River. Essentially, she is an A track maiden meeting some who would be tough in nw3. Pass.