Monday, December 5, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 5, 2016


1 Intended Style  righted the ship last time. He just seems to turn it around when he hits rock bottom. Post 1 is a tough sell at this track, but I wouldn't toss him with this soft bunch. Not likely my choice though. The bias is clear. If he could get a 2nd over tow like last time, he has a shot.

2 Every Day takes the more realistic approach tonight and finds a claimer. In for 8k would have been better in my view. I like others.

3 Gunpowder closed with the pack last time, and had pace, but didn't do enough. He remains a bit player. One of these weeks he will pop off on these. He is another who would probably be well off to drop to the bottom where he can pick those up.

4 Warrawee Phoenix is remembered on this circuit as a hanger and one who cannot be used more than once in the mile. The Maritimes was a good place for him to ply his trade, but he is back on the scene now for Galucci. He wont see my money. I tried him a few times with Waxman and even his gas couldn't help this one. He is 6 weeks off and adds lasix. I doubt that helps him. He is just NFG and not much stock. It happens.

5 Cundalini tried to wire them up last week with a blast move but he gave it up in the lane. I maintain I think he is a better 8 than this level. Mcnair takes over and I guess that is an upgrade, but I'm not sure it helps. I would think it would if he could get him out fast and then take a seat and follow the entire way. He is possible, but unlikely.

6 Outlaw Gunpowder was claimed by Moreau and he puts him right back in for 10. I'd think Cullen will take him back and Moreau will gas him up and have him sent. He looks like a short price and a likely winner. I will note the Fillion/Moreau express has been derailed of late, not steaming down the track with the horn blowing.

7 Stimulus Spending  moved late but wasn't dangerous. I like others. So did JJ, he took the 8.

8 Never Been Told met his match in the tougher field last time and now moves back down, but takes the high tag. I think his good form has run its course. I will likely go to others. Front end mission types find it hard to sustain that over an entire month or two. Especially at the big track. He has been charted broken equipment two weeks in a row. Not sure that that is about but you'd hope Montini would get his act together. No Phil tonight, so JJ takes over.

9 Velocity Headlight  draws poorly again because he takes the high tag. I simply don't get that strategy for a horse that was on a line bad last week and has virtually no chance to be claimed for 8 on his form and history.


1 Toy Is Ours took 3 tries to get back to racing for a purse. That made 4 races in a row he made a break. That is not good. He also adds lasix. I cannot see this one. Bad claim, and I think Carmen will bail and take the loss on this one soon. Can't get them all right.

2 Toga Town looked lame to me in his start before last, and couldn't even make the gate last time. I can't see him being dangerous as is.

3 Moonbeam Hall returns with a win 2 back and a bad post in his last where he was probably over his head anyway. He will have to be seen. I cut some slack to him because I respect Ben B's ability to tinker with one like this. However, he has had him a long time and not much has changed. If he looks like he always does, I will pass.

4 Top Dollar  made a break last time and was never in it at London. Per will drive him tonight, as he has before. I would guess this is some sort of test, test drive mission at this track to see if he is both viable and better over the track, and if some Per magic tinkering is needed. He is not impossible with this bunch, especially if the 8 blows up and isn't involved.

5 Most Wanted Lindy is 0 for 32 the last two years and seems a cheque getting bit player type who doesn't have the gusto in the stretch to get more at this age. Going to Flamboro didn't help him do better.

6 Blush and Crush  has a license to be very dangerous here. She made a blast move to the top last time and held off all but one who has been a winning machine of late, and this year. Post 6 favors her if she parades sound. She doesn't always do that. Assuming she does, she is a must use in the pick 5. You wont get the boxcar price she brought last week. That ship has sailed.

7 Chievous Cole has looked terribly lame in the starts I've seen him at this track lately. He went to London, and after one try at the Preferred. dove his tag down and was claimed off an easy win. He will have to be seen. I would be hard pressed to back him unless he looks better. He very likely wont make the gate on stride. He needed a month off between starts last time. That indicates an issue he has. You don't keep horses who can win races out of the box unless you have to.

8 Cracker Zack didn't perform for Ryan, and Johnson took him back. He will have to be seen. If he looks okay, he has a shot to take down the 10 or 6, the only two who look dangerous to me.

9 Girl Drama goes back to the only trainer who seems to be able to keep her together. He ups the tag slightly here, and gets the 9 hole, which probably doesn't matter as she sits way back either way. I don't think she can pick all of these up and probably gets 3rd or 4th coming late.

10 Dirty Secret  comes in with 5 straight, the last 3 for Joe C, and she takes the high tag and gets the 10 hole for her trouble. Because so many of these look like they will run off the gate, or be held together and not go much, I could be persuaded to ignore the 10 post here and think this one almost clears before the turn, or makes front by the turn down the backside, and takes them all the way. Much of that depends on what the 8 does. I dont think the missed time is an issue. She has probably been trained hard in between and tuned up.


1 Intimidate dodges the best ones this time, and while he could be one of those again, at this stage, they are too much for him. I'm not fond of the rail at this track, and I'd probably go against this one here starting from it. He is likely to bring a short price. I will play against it, and him.

2 Olympic Son  couldn't have gotten a better trip last week, but he was no match for the winner, who sailed right by him. He meets him again, and others who look viable. I will go elsewhere. I think this level is too tough for him of late.

3 Cash for Gold was put on the front last week, and we see why that rarely happens. He was a borderline runaway and was spent as they turned for home. He looked good doing it though until he was winded. He is likely to get away mid pack this time, and gets a new driver. I could go back to him if the price is right, which it is likely to be.

4 Charlie Is a Joker had no shot his last two with those posts, but hasn't been very good either way. He will drop his bottom line here and make a big attempt at the bottom or close to it next time. Pass for me, and Mario, who took the other stable entrant.

5 Abc Muscles Boy was forced to try the best on the circuit, and he is overmatched with those based on his Pocono lines. These are more reasonable, but still a stretch. He is a player, but I'm on the fence on him.

6 Wild and Crazy Guy righted the ship on the class drop last week, and blew by them like they were tied to a pole. He seems very variable week to week and always has been. I will take a price on others and think he is maybe 2nd or 3rd here, but not the winner.

7 Stan the Man didn't get a good start from the rail last week, and that did him in when he had to pull first up. He isn't the bravest type when he doesn't have control. This field is a bit too deep for me to think he will take them down with that driver.

8 Etruscan Hanover looked off parading last time and jumped it off. He can get like that. He will have to be seen parading. I'm inclined to wait on him either way.

9 Fearless Man is 3rd back off the shelf and gets some class relief, but the toughest post. That makes this race interesting. The bias of this post and his style works against him finishing them off if he tries to control it.


1 Alexas Hope put in steps multiple times in the mile last time, but Randy got her around and she got up for 3rd. I will go elsewhere this week. She doesn't do enough.

2 Moremunkybusiness takes the lower tag and draws a better post this time. That puts her in play. I can give her a pass for starting poorly and having no shot to win last week. I can't give her a pass for not passing the rats and getting a small slice.

3 Watt a Funny Face comes back to the class where she is 2 for 2 and is likely to blast and try to wire them again. Mcnair this time. She is 9-1 ML? Who sits on her back here and can take her if she is tired from all the blasting? That is probably the winner.

4 Tigra Seelster blasted out from the 6 hole as the favorite last week, but could only get away 4th, as there were some speed demons to deal with. She latched on to live 2nd over cover and should have won off that trip, but couldn't reach the winner, who moved up and did well in that attempt. She appears very sharp and if she can gain the 2 hole on the 3's back, has a legit shot to get home first.

5 Darktwistedfantasy doesn't seem to have what it takes lately to go with them in the lane. She was really good earlier in the year, and might come back around. I will go to others in this spot. She is dangerous with her connections history of turning this type without warning. I will play against that happening tonight.

6 Shes a Maniac has been flat two weeks in a row, but she had the rail both starts. I can cut her some slack with that potential variable in play. With post 6, she is reasonable, but still a stretch. I'd probably use her in the pick 5.

7 Fire Watch got up for 3rd last week, and almost 2nd, but she seems to do that without threatening the winner every week. I'd think she is 3rd or 4th again here.

8 Donna Party got tortured and hung out last time from post 10, and also didn't look pretty trying it. She takes a slightly lower tag and draws a bit better, but she has the same speed merchant to deal with inside of her. Another day, if she looks better doing it here, I might go back to her. She would need a speed battle in front of her, and to lay off it herself, which is what I said last time, and she didn't do that then either.

9 Pretty Hot  met some tough customers her last two at Flamboro and was overmatched. She went a monster trip to win the start before that, and comes back tagged, but takes the high tag and gets the 9 hole for that protection. Randy sticks with Galucci. I will pass here on the tough start angle. Another who might prove me wrong if they battle and she lays off.

10 One Last Bono takes the high tag as she returns to claimers. As she seems to need to lead, I cant see how this trip works out for her and she has something left late.


1 Arrived Late draws better here, but at best I think he needs to hit bottom to have a shot. Even then, I'm unlikely to back him. He has never been good at this track facing horses that finish with more gusto than he does. He seems to be able to go as fast at Flamboro as he does here.

2 Next Thing Smoken was racing Open paces at Hoosier in late September and doing well. They are generally a tough bunch there, and he tried the top ones here, but couldn't go with them. He has tailed off since then, but gets in with a weak bunch here, relative to what he is capable of. I will list him to get beat, and take another on top, but he is certainly possible.

3 Darcee N  paced a decent mile last time to one who moved up and jogged, and another who moved up and won in a gritty manner, both on Saturday night. He doesn't start well, but at the right level, he can pass the right ones. There isn't much to like outside of him. I will take him on top, with the caveat that I need close to his ML of 9-2. 4-1 is my bottom limit. He needs the trip to go right, and you need price value to play those. It doesn't always go your way.

4 J Js Delivery removes lasix for his return, off two qualifiers and a trainer change. He was a nice 3yo, but has not made the transition well to aged ones. I like others, and will watch him.

5 Prince Clyde tripped out and won at the bottom last week. He was lucky in that the main contender was off a year and had a tough journey from post 10, and couldn't get there in time. He was beat if that one got loose earlier. A win is a win though. This isn't a tough rise, and his post is good again. He has a shot, but I like at least one better than him.

6 Lovedancinwithyou is not doing enough at this level for me to back him. He drops the win off here and if I like what I see, I might go to him next time for a price. Pass and watch tonight.

7 Uf Bettors Hanover
was flying late last time, but had post 10 and couldn't get there in time. He rises here, but not by much, and these are possible to take. I would hope the price is there to consider him. He has a history of winning at a big price.

8 Bs Tyrrific paced a strong mile for Weller, and he moves up slightly here and gets the 8 hole. That might stunt his progress. He starts slow anyway, so it might not be the strike against him that it is to many. Minor shot if he picks up live flow.

9 Shadow Margeaux loses Mcnair to his dads horse, and combined with post 9 and the move up makes me go elsewhere. I'd think he is looking to find the proper claiming level at some point.

10 Three of Clubs was 2nd off the shelf last time and very live. He probably goes to the back of the bus here. I have to pass and wait. If he holds his soundness, he is a decent play next time if he races as good this time as he did last week.


1 Shestherealthing continues to finish with horrid last quarters, and only once was that good enough to win a race. I cant back her. I think she had a fluky night. She is a bit of a live wire, and leaving from the rail is not going to help her.

2 Mostinterestingman broke his maiden at this track, but has had trouble doing enough to win nw2, with the trainer driving most of the time. I like others better. I'd have to see more from him and a professional driver to make me go to him.

3 Missedbyaday took heavy action at the windows last week, but backed off the gate and was no factor. This is Per's 2nd try with him. I will wait at least one more and hope he puts him in play here and then lists a catch driver next time. He shows flashes of speed at times, but needs to put it together.

4 Sunrise Avenue had every chance last time, but she didn't do enough. I could see her turning that around tonight. This is a very soft bunch.

5 Work That Magic shows talent at times, but also soreness and she will not go with that. If somehow she looks better this time parading, I'd go to her if the price doesn't reflect her improved appearance.

6 Withahearttomatch was late to the races and shows no speed in the last quarter. I cant back her with what I see. Based on her breeding, I'd think she is off to the breeding shed in a month or two. They probably hope to get a faster record soon, but if not, then not.

7 True Muscle has been horrible for a long time. Cant touch her until I see something positive.

8 Silky Flashy Nfast took advantage of a very soft bunch of maidens to use her stakes experience to handle them. She has been freshened up for the winter, and can probably double up on this mediocre bunch.

9 Little Stuie  shows me nothing to suggest he can do much from the 9 hole, or even a better hole for that matter.

10 Archery blasted out from the 10 hole last time in his first start at this track, and he spit the bit coming for home. He did stay trotting. I will watch this time. Hopefully he draws better next time.


1 Levy Taylore paced a decent mile last time, to a class dropping winner who tripped out and a former top Stakes horse who was class diving. Post 1 would lead me to go elsewhere, but if he does okay I'd probably go to this one next time.

2 They Call Me Gordy didnt do enough last time off a very easy trip. I gave him the benefit of the doubt then. Tonight, pass.

3 Smarter Yet  closed with the pack last time and drops slightly here. These are pretty soft, he has a minor shot for a price.

4 Big Petes Style blasted out from a good post last week and looked to come up the inside to outpace the winner, but was never getting by that one. However, it was a good effort and wake up call for him. I wouldn't take a short price on him, which he probably brings, but he has to be considered a contender.

5 Hail the Taxi closed up okay with the pack last time to nab 5th from a 9 hole start. He is 1 for 42 the last two years, that win coming at KD. Can't back him for the win.

6 Crafty Master takes a substantial class drop from his last 2 at this track, gets the best post and Trevor. My top call.

7 Hickory Terrific ships in from Northfield, where he wasn't winning at the bottom class there, which has mostly horses that wouldn't win a 5 claimer at Flamboro, with some exceptions, like this one.

8 St Lads Lotto  has suspect but okay form. He is one of many, but also one that pops every now and then.

9 Cams Tux was an early scratch.

10 Ideal Jet  draws the 10 hole but gets 9 with the scratch of Cams Tux. Not enough for me. Pass.


1 A Boy Named Suuzz needs class relief and gets it. However, he hasnt looked sharp lately, and while he isnt without a shot, he will have to overcome the early energy he will have to expend to push the rail and then possibly retake. I think that gets him beat by at least 2 of these when it matters.

2 Machapelo  shows me nothing that would lead me to back him, and even a drop to 8k might not be enough.

3 Vital Sign is the one I will call in the upset. he has three 1's and a 9 on the page his last 4 starts off the layoff. He is just on the fringes, but hopefully can be up in the top 5 here and pick up live cover. Its a stab to go against the 6, who looks cinchy here. I can't find any others to back. He has just gotten closer each time. I'd want odds, likely 10-1 or higher.

4 Chosen Hombre doesn't show me anything to suggest he is anything more than a bit player at this level. He was a bad claim, but might have to go in for 10 to do some damage.

5 Raging Fingers was outpaced for 10 last time, when he had every chance to win. I think he is over his head.

6 Lisvinnie looks like a cinch here, but stranger things have happened. I will go to another, but its a stab. If he maintains how he has been, he is untouchable in with this bunch. The new barn is a concern. Johnson seems to have him figured out and that sometimes is a difference maker.

7 New York Nightmare is pacing solid miles, but is no match for the one who beat him last time. I cant back him when he doesn't do enough to win.


1 Tony Soprano made the right move at the right time last week, and simply gained control as most of the contenders were spent or off stride. Like many in this field, he is wildly inconsistent. He is one that could have a lot of trouble with post 1 if his history of bad behavior holds up.

2 Marquis Volo jumped it off last time and had trouble coming through until 2 back. I haven't liked what I've seen from him, and as he takes long breaks when he goes on the shelf, I suspect its hard to keep him racing and he will probably go the wrong way rather than the right one now. Pass.

3 Mystery Bet was on a full gallop coming to the gate last time. I will pass on him. Once he goes bad, he stays bad for a while. If I'm wrong, he can beat me.

4 P L Hercules was solid on the class rise last time, flying up for 4th. He didn't attempt control last time, but he is likely to go back to that strategy here. These are softer, top to bottom than that field was, even though its the same class and purse.

5 Little Red Chev comes off two 9 holes and some decent form, including a closing 2nd last week. She is in the mix and because she can leave when asked, could bag a nice easy trip. Shot.

6 Escuela takes a big class rise here. I don't see her ability matching up with most of these, although her sharpness is better than most. That big late move probably wont pick these up like it did last time against far easier.

7 Zagster is not one I am fond of from what I have seen of him on the track lately. I will wait for some sign of a turnaround in how he travels. He ran last time and that didn't surprise me. He does have some talent.

8 Rockin With Dewey has gained control in two consecutive starts from good posts and simply stepped up the pace when she needed to and was asked. This is a much stiffer bunch and the post negates any idea to try those tactics now. Pass.

9 April Rose the wildcard in the bunch. Post 9, Pocono shipper, Oakes to Allard, fast mile followed by so so effort. She will get her class tested here. I think she will fail that test. Allard is batting zero in the win department lately.

10 Georgies Pockets took 36k out of the Autumn Series. A very nice score for a mid level Grassroots horse. Now, he has to wade into the deep condition waters. With post 10 tonight, I'd suspect they want to see if he can brush late and keep up. No shot tonight from this post and class rise.


1 Shippen Out ships in off the claim for Allard. Of course, this one we know well. Not the most determined type, but he does do well when the trip works out and he is at the right level. This field isn't tough, top to bottom, but I will have to see where he is at before I put money on the table. Lets see him parade. The rail wont help, but it wont kill his chances either. He has never been the type to blast and take prisoners. He shows a break at the top of the stretch last time. Because he comes from Allard, that would concern me. He must be seen.

2 Dinner At the Met is one J Mac was not swayed enough with to stick to as Joe C arrives. I like Carmen's as well, and I know this horse from the States. I will have to see him, but I think he is over his head with these.

3 Dalton Did It hooked a couple of tough ones last time, and trying to keep up with them took the steam out of him. I'm on the fence as to whether he is a 20 or 15. As I am leaning to 15, I will pass on him tonight and watch.

4 Needlecrest  didn't look like he had any front end speed, but as has been said before, any horse can be made to gun. Most don't, because they stop like rats when they are made to spend the energy early, like this one did last time. I remain convinced he is one level too high. Pass for now.

5 Jenkins Creek bagged 4th money in a 6 horse field last time, but the two behind him were not pretty to say the least. Pass on him. Not sure if I will back him on the way back down, but I am certain I wouldn't in this class as is.

6 York Seelster  paced a strong mile last time after starting from the rail then moving towards the turn, taking over late and barely holding on. I would think with this post, and his history, he is aiming for the front this time. He can be picked off if he tries that, but he looks like the one to me.

7 Shock N Rock seems to have lost form in his last two, which have been terrible. He would have to do a lot better to get me interested. I think he is one level up from where he needs to be.

8 Crocadile Canyon was laid off in the summer, after going to Hoosier where the purses are good but the relative competition is much softer than here. He needed 4 qualifiers to get back to the races, the last without lasix and back on Team Z. I want to see him on the track, but he is possible if he shows me the right things.

9 Panedictine post will do this one in. I cant see him from the hole he starts from here.

10 Lonewolf Currier still dont like what I see. Total Pass.

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