Thursday, December 8, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 8, 2016


1 Fancourt did not look sound last winter when he made his first appearance, but he had enough overall talent to win despite it. He was immediately put on the shelf, and returned for a qualifier last Thursday. He paced fast enough, but still looked to have the same issues. These are really soft as maidens go. I will go to another, but he isn't impossible if he can be slightly better. He is a winner in 55 facing mostly maidens.

2 Lyons Delight  gets significant class relief, for the 2nd time. He drew the rail last time, but was very steppy leaving and McNair had to hold him together. He doesn't seem to start well from any post, and while he is now facing level competition, he doesn't appear to be the top rung of those. He did get in the ticket picture late, but looked wonky when he was called on for more. He goes just enough each time to be dangerous but not win. Those types always look tempting, but continue to disappoint you. I will go elsewhere.

3 Six Flags  made a very poor post parade appearance on Sunday night at Flamboro, and comes back on 3 days rest, also being asked to step up his speed quite a bit. I don't see him as viable against these for the win slot. I will take a wait and watch attitude as he tries the big track without proving he can handle lesser at the B's. He has won in 56 at Georgian. That is a plus. But that was then. Currently, he doesn't show me enough.

4 Red Store did everything right in his qualifier and has to be considered a legit threat here. He did gap out at times in that test, but he is young and green. We can expect improvement.

5 Sedona Seelster couldn't have gotten a better trip last time if he bought it at the tack shop on the way in to the track. He left out, got right onto the heavy chalks back, who parked out another and used him as a road block to the outer flow. This one had a chance to come out, but he was spent down the backside and all done turning for home. He popped off a decent mile one time, but as mentioned last week, went the same speed overall. If you look at his last 2 bad efforts, when the pace picks up in the 3rd quarter, he packs it in. He doesn't have winning ability at this track.

6 Clouseau Hanover started poorly last time, but made up the difference along the way, only beat a length, driving hard to the finish. He took a couple of seconds off his qualifier. He has had young horse issues along the way, but he is very well bred and looks like the one. He is however, a 2yo. I will have to see if he parades well and is holding up to the long season of racing. If so, he looks like the one to me.

7 About a Boy doesn't look to me to be much stock. He had every chance last time to hang out the horse that was going nowhere and then drive on to at least be top 2. He stopped as soon as one blew by him, then let the majority of the rest steamroll him in the lane. I see nothing to suggest this horse is an A track horse. He can prove me wrong if he steps up.

8 Chummy Park is a total pass for me. Can't see any reason this horse is racing at this track, unless lucking into 5th money every two weeks is the goal.

9 Eas Ideal looked to range up on the last turn last time, and made it through that part then, but he still had nothing in the lane. These are very weak. I suppose Weller might still be tinkering with him. The price better be big for me to even entertain playing him solely that whatever the issue is, he will overcome it at some stage. He was still bearing in in the first turn, but not horribly like before.

One thing about trainers is that they seek out and do very well with certain sires. Auciello does well with Mach Three and American Ideal. Weller does well with Skydancer Hanover and Artistic Fella. John Burns was well known to be fond of Big Towner. Not that a good trainer cant do well with any horse, or any breed, but when you know you can step up a certain type of horse, you seek them out. I think that is in play in this race, with two trainers. The two I just mentioned. Doesn't mean they will win, but it provides an angle that can provide value that might not be apparent on pure form.
1 A Bettors Risk had every chance off a soft trip when he shook free to go forward in the lane. He did not. He hung and others passed him easily. I will watch him this time and he has to do better. At least he didn't cross his legs and look like he was going to lay down on the track like he did before. He might be a project...several race project...for his trainer, who has done that before with this type. Note he was an early scratch.

2 Rockin Ronnie comes off 3 tough posts in a row. He did win off one of them. I will go to others in this spot. He will have to up his game to just get on the ticket now that he is not a maiden anymore.

3 Bugger Jerry  ships back in from a variety of US tracks, mostly Yonkers, where he has been trounced. We have seen this before with Carmen, and then they look like they had some Niatross injected into them and look like bearcats. He is 1 for 24 and that win came at Northville. Essentially, he is a maiden facing winners. He probably needs to find a cheap conditioned claimer at Flamboro, but he is not a toss because of the past history of his trainer with this type of non performer. If you are looking for a hard to take bomb type for your pick 5, he looks like that type to me.

4 Blue Fox  has not raced for a purse since early October. He did qualify okay, although he looked to hang a bit on the turn. He is a new recruit for Weller, and I'm of the opinion he steps this particular type up..but he takes a race to figure them out. Was that race the qualifier? That is your call to make. I would use him in the pick 5, but probably wouldn't list him as a flat out win candidate.

5 Hughgetthecredit broke his maiden in his first try for Cullen. He is a nice little handy horse and is tactical. He can get to the lead or pocket here, and that makes him dangerous. I think he needs at least one to adapt to winners. He isn't facing the 2nd coming of Cam Fella here though.

6 Duneside Sport  did not impress me in his 1st start at this track for Joe C. He gets a better post here but I'm not sold he is a condition horse, even if most of these probably aren't either. At least a couple of them are. Bit player status unless he turns his form around.

7 Putnams Legacy drew poorly last time, went to the back of the bus, and did little. His overall back half speed was good, but it wasn't like he was racing when he did that. He isn't impossible with these, but he has to step up at some point. He looks like a one brush type for this track. I suppose if he were to get away 5th or 6th, follow live cover and just stay on it, then try to one brush home, he has a shot. Its a longshot. Not a toss though.

8 Shooter Inthecreek brushed past a cinchy winner last time, who let him go, but then was attacked full bore by a very nice colt who took the steam out of him, and he folded it up late. That was first time Moreau. He is another who is hard to like with confidence, but possible if the trip goes his way.

9 Chalky I see nothing from this one to suggest he is in the picture tonight.


1 Vasco Bi was first time trotting hopples last time for Per, who kept him trotting. Post 9 likely did him in. Post 1 here wont help a green colt like this. I will take a watch and wait approach on him. He is probably progressing and learning, heading towards whatever works for him when he comes back in the spring, if that is the plan. He is still in test drive mode.

2 Mister Blues has not impressed me from what I've seen of him. I don't think he will do at this track. Pass.

3 Royal Intrigue is a homebred who is getting a late start to her career. Her pedigree is stacked with bluebloods who made good money, many who were better aged than as 2yo's. She was aimed at a 2yo start, but she didn't make it and has been shelved since. She did everything right in her qualifier. She left out to lead, cut it, went around smooth and straight, and kept at it when another came to her. She does seem a one speed type, but that could play with this bunch. I rate her a shot at a price.

4 Spot in the Sun will have to do a lot better than she did in her first start to get my attention. She is a project at best to this stage.

5 Core Fusion was raced to win last time, but it seems 59 is his limit right now and that wasn't good enough to hold off the winner. I will have to go elsewhere and hang on a longshot here. This is the type of race where it looks like some longshot takes an obvious one like this when it matters.

6 In for Along Haul  was never keeping up in her slow qualifier, and meets the winner of that here. I can't touch this one.

7 Sylvia Express ships in as a new recruit for Allard and goes FTL. She has quite a few X's on the page, but you have to take a bit of risk in this type of race. I could see her if she behaves and the trainer change plus added Lasix makes a difference. Chancy but viable. Note, she is scratched.

8 Jagersro is 0 for 30 and has the 8 hole. She tried the front end last time but stopped when challenged. Pass.

9 Dad Leads will have to be seen. His variables are really bad. I think he might come around, but this spot is tough to waste a pick 5 spot on him. If he does it tonight, he will beat me.

10 Andovers Choice has a lot of strikes against him.  Post, lack of winning, off sick, trainer not stepping up trotters of this type. I will go to others.


1 East End tried this class first time last week, and held together well in the last turn, 4 high much of it, then outpaced the one beside him for 2nd. I'm not sold he can keep it together every week. Probably a must use in the picks, but not in my top 3 if I were only going 3 deep.

2 The Avenger is not doing enough. I will go to others. If Robinson gets his attention and he turns this week, I will get taken out. He will probably do that once this winter.

3 P H Blackjack cant see anything to recommend this one. He is going backwards every week. He has tried these now, and not gotten any better. I dont see lasix added, so that must not be a factor.

4 Ignition Switch another new recruit for Weller. Another Skydancer Hanover from the Wilfong's. I'm inclined to watch him once. He isn't impossible and the fact he is being tagged on the first try suggests he has him figured out and he is what he is. Your call. I have to see him.

5 Imsporty took the high tag for protection last time and as a result got 3rd money instead of 2nd and a legit shot at the winner. Back to practical here. Middle of the gate, lower tag, new home again likely, short price, and likely winner. Usable for the pick 4 and 5, but I'd not want a very chalky low price on him straight up for the win. 7-5 would be my bottom limit, and that is really pushing it.

6 Lil Richie doesn't do enough for me to back him. Pass again.

7 Just a Thought went the long trip last time but hung in for 4th. These aren't deep or tough top to bottom. I rate him a longshot if the 5 can get roughed up.

8 Shadowfall took an easy score at London last time. I don't see him as competitive with these. I would guess Vanderkamp is pricing him and letting them have a free look. Obviously nobody is giving him 22k for this horse, and he wants them to see where he stacks up so they can list a fair offer.

9 Ocaptain Mycaptain  was raced in Dayton by a guy who lives in Strathroy. That is curious. Suggests he cant get around London. He didn't look like he got around Freehold. He did win his last in 55 over Dayton, which is a fast 5/8ths. Combined with the bad post, and the steep class rise, the price will be right here. The horse has some breeding behind him. I could list him a reasonable long shot chance. I'd want to see 30-1. Pick 4 and 5 sweetener candidate.

10 Windsun Falls is hard to like for many reasons, among them, his suspect gait at times, his bad form and his post tonight. I can't use him as viable as is.


1 I WANNA BE GEARED dropped a shade last time and attracted a claim from Sr. Johnson. He was a solid 2nd that night and has been okay at this track in the winter before. He has always been consistent about hitting the ticket 50% of the time and winning his share when the variables come together for him. He likes to lead and post 1 might go against that strategy for him. I give him a minor shot, but having to do extra work will probably cost him when it matters tonight.

2 Hoosier Your Dali got beat 13 last week, but the winner was off by himself by 10. The line looks worse than it is. He was steppy and choppy gaited most of the way, trying to run, and that is not on the page. I have to pass on the physical appearance I saw. He was in for 5 at Hoosier for a reason.

3 Every Girls Desire comes to this track and moves up a bit, but off a win. He does a lot of winning. He will get his class tested here. I think he fails that test. He has not shown the overall speed you need at this track to win races most nights.

4 Stir and Serve another one coming in off the claim at Flamboro, stepping up and who wins a lot of races. We have seen him before. This is a mediocre field with no standouts. He has as good as shot as most of them. His starting position and decent gate speed is a plus.

5 Pylater the classic lame but game type. He cant be discounted as one who might leave, run and hide and try the outstagger them route to victory. Not my choice, but he has to be respected on that angle.

6 Scotty Mach N was bearing in a bit last time in the turns, and then flat most of the way. Every week is another week with this kind and Sheppard is one of the best at getting them over problems. He has a shot if he is better this week than the last couple. The better post is a help.

7 Cheyenne Ford  probably needed a start last week, and might be better here. Might. He is another viable longshot to consider if you are looking for one here. He could just be NFG, as could any of those. One of them has to win this race.

8 Well Said Stride comes in a month off and with McGuire, from the Meadows. I've seen this movie before. This one has a famous mother, and a dud of a sire father. He wouldn't shock me, and I'd have to use him in the picks.

9 Calgary Seelster had the crap pounded out of him last time, to no avail, as he was not even close to the winner, nor could he pass the winded leader who has a history of folding. Post 9 tonight. I will go against him and load up on price horses. He can beat me if he shows up and is capable this week.

10 Royal Canvas pass from what I have seen.


1 Profound Patience I cannot back from what I have seen lately and this tough starting spot.

2 Pick Up the Tab was a decent 2nd last time in the first for his new trainer. He looks like the one here, but I'd be leary of a short price. There are X's on the page. Has to be seen.

3 Grace Duharas ran off the gate last time and was never in it. That I could overlook. Breaking her maiden against the bunch she did, that doesn't leave my mind. I think she is in for a long stay in this class.

4 Kilmer Road started 9th from the rail and could never close that gap. I'm not fond of his suspect gait when he is asked for speed. He might take heavy action again, especially 2nd off the layoff. I will go to others.

5 Grego still dont see anything from this one to suggest he wins a race at this track. He can pick up shares by going one speed and behaving, something his trainer has made a good buck on with this type of horse.

6 J N Ryder Nope.

7 Guscrest has missed an entire year. He is not impossible if whatever caused him to miss that time was bothering him when he was racing last year. I will look him over. If he looks the part, I'd be willing to use him in this race, when I can make a solid, definitive case against most of these.

8 Prince of Minto has a license to be a viable longshot off a win at Flamboro from the 9 hole and a decent effort from the 10 last time at this track. One of a few who are likely to step up. Which one? No idea. One of them.

9 Im Wanted has joined Team Moreau. He will have to be seen. He has issues that can be viewed by watching him trot. If he looked to be better this time around, the talent appears to be there. Moreau did well with his full brother Cracker Zack when he has had him. Maybe he knows something about the family. I think anybody knows that adding trotting hopples will keep one like this trotting. But he is lame. That he also has to take care of.

10 Sibson  didn't look good trotting in the race last week and blew up coming out of the turn. Post 10 will do him in here, even if he was viable from a better spot, which I'm on  the fence on. He beat maidens who are likely to stay maidens. That is not a good reference.


1 Warrawee Star  has not showed me enough to back her yet. Her slow starts are a problem. That only gets worse from the rail.

2 On the Minute Mark draws better and gets a nice Christmas gift from the race office, who writes a special condition to let her in. She easily could upset these if the 5 bombs out again like she did last time as the monster chalk.

3 Columnist 0 for 31 and there are viable ones in here. If there is a spot for this one to win, it doesn't look like this spot.

4 Ponder the Dream see above, but this one isn't even hitting the ticket lately.

5 Two Sides of Love was a solid 2nd to a nice enough filly last time who had won before and moved up to be 2nd last time as well. She was horribly overbet last week, but raced well. She is in the mix here, the likely deserving favorite, but I'd think a more realistic price. Possible, but as we saw last week, she is not a bearcat and has to be viewed as a legit contender, among others. Maybe she can leave and that is tried now that she has some experience.

6 Bonnies Gem couldn't catch a softer field or spot than last week, but she still wasn't near the ticket. I don't know what it takes to get this one over the hump. Possibly a trainer change. I will wait on that.

7 Keystone Tiffany was tried early at 2, but didn't make the cut and missed the rest of that year and all of this one. She is a half sister to Invitro and Bigtime Ball, but there are other foals that weren't much either. She could be a good one, or, just one of those with nice breeding but non performers. She shows enough speed for me to consider her. I will watch her parade closely. If she is right, she is the type that can pop off on a field like this at first asking. At 2 qualifiers, she is likely to be tighter than most that qualify but have never raced.

8 Manhattan Kelly is coming off a long layoff and has drawn bad. I didn't like the looks of her when she raced before, even the night she won. She has issues. I will watch her tonight, but pass for me. I like others.

9 Maddys Credit  shows me nothing to suggest she handles this post hole she gets tonight. Pass.

10 Jimmys Little Girl another who gets in on the special condition, and even with post 10, she has a shot. She has been keeping much tougher company than all of these. She will need live cover and very good flow. Its a tough sell, but not impossible to think could play out.


1 Lmc Mass Oak looked like he might be the winner last week, but tried to come out of the hole when the room wasn't there, and jumped it off. Not his fault. He is one of many, but starting poorly and having to work for it because of the rail start has been a problem for him. Ticket material, but tough sell for the win.

2 Conway Escape is hard to like off his weak B track lines and rise in class for this test. I cant see it.

3 Elegant Holiday was claimed by Waxman 2 back and drew the 8 hole last time at Flamboro. She moves up to come here, but meets many who have no solid form at this level. She has had many bad posts on the page. I will cut her some slack and think she has a legit shot in a race where many of these don't look like they do.

4 Asterix aborts conditions after slamming the brakes on at the half last time. He had a bad post that night as well. So, there is some license here on the class relief and post improvement. 1 for 35 does not inspire confidence.

5 Vics Royal Lady was pretty good here last winter when she came and won a few. She took 3 in a row before her last, all 4 at Flamboro with basically this type of horse. She has to be considered a player with post 5 and Fillion calling the shots.

6 Giant Muscles found the proper level last time but was no match for the winner, still stopping badly in the stretch. This post is favorable, and his style is as well. Shot, but I wouldn't take shot money on him.

7 Northern City Girl  improved for Weller last time, as he jammed her on 3 days. I could see her based on the way she trotted the 3rd quarter in that one. She will have to be seen. I have noted some soundness problems there and that is a week to week, monitor type thing with her.

8 Summajestic kept it together last time and nabbed 4th money at 106-1. He has issues but also enough speed if they can be resolved. Another one I have to see. I'm inclined to toss him this week with post 8, but watch to see if a score could be on the horizon in the new year.

9 Secretcode Hanover still shows horrid last quarters, and will be way back based on post and how he has to be babied away to keep him flat. I can't see how he can make up that difference.

10 V for Victory draws the 10 hole again. I will keep my eye on him. These types can hold hidden form when they get ignored with consecutive bad posts.


1 Mr Match on Beach took heavy chalk money last time but while he was given every chance, he was no match for the winner. I'd consider him here if the price was right. Post 1 isn't a huge problem for him. He is probably better racing off the pace, hopefully away mid pack and following the flow. These are weak. He could draw 7-5. I'd pass on that. I'd want 5-2 to play him. That probably isn't there. He is one of many as I see it, but a legit, logical contender.

2 Jrs Big Buddy got parked out last time, but cleared the pocket sitter who closed the hole, but then stopped. To his credit, he kept going forward. He shows signs of having the talent to win this class. I'd consider him at a price and use him in the late pick 4 and double. If he could get to the 2 hole and find a live one to follow, he is viable.

3 Shelbys Ideal comes off the shelf, and was weak in his qualifier. I can't see him lasting if he is put on the front again.

4 Brookletsjustified  joins Weller's stable. This is the type I wait a start on to see if he tunes them up and then they are a big go in start 2 and 3. He has a fast win. That is on the plus side of the ledger.

5 Southwind Savage just missed getting up last week. But again, he missed getting up again last week. He is far better off being 2nd than winning. He appears dead in the water if he wins. Pass.

6 Swellendam is very lightly raced and comes off the shelf, with lasix added. I liked his qualifier and is one I might take a shot with if he looks sound parading. That is an issue from many in this barn. I will look him over when he parades. He already shows speed most of these don't.

7 Jump Jet first time starter, 2yo Jereme's Jet. Pass. Watch. Assess.

8 D M Reacher total pass. I see nothing I like from this one, and post 8 adds a deeper hole to the well.

9 Hes Gone Bad has had 4 off the shelf. No progress to speak of.


1 Max Is Back is one I have backed this fall a couple of times, but I am turning in the membership card to his fan club. He just doesn't deliver on the talent he shows you in small bits. That happens with horses. He will likely find himself in the right stable one day and they will sort him out. I will wait for that to possibly happen. His lines are hard to like.

2 Emptythetill  took back from the 8 hole last time in his first for Carmen. It was a suspicious race to watch period, but in any event, he closed up for a solid 2nd, nowhere near the 35-1 winner who had one lifetime win in about 40 starts going in. I could see him here if the trip was favorable. I wouldn't take a short price off the one start in the barn and big close angle. Those types can burn the crap out of you.

3 Frontier Seelster looked to blast by on the final turn last time, but may have run in a bit, and stalled. He is uber green, and those types come around as they learn and the trainer learns what works best for them. I look up and down the page, and I land back on him as my top call, but I don't want a short price. 7-2 seems about right value wise.

4 New Standard is 2nd off the claim for Giles. I saw nothing first time out to back him now. Whatever his connections saw, I don't see it.

5 Bugatti  tried to pike them, but got picked up by the winner and another, and almost missed the ticket. He just cant be used and then finish. That is my read on him. I like others in here who have two legit moves.

6 Whatashowinontario is an ignorant puller who wont rate, but also doesn't have the talent to wire this caliber. I cant touch him on that scenario. If he could rate, he would be the type that plays in this field. If you think that will play out, he could be value. He was fighting the driver when he tried to take him back last time off the gate. Maybe his new driver J Mac will just blast him and try to hook someone to cover him up.

7 Give Em Back made a sharp and noticable move to grab 3rd money in his first try at this track. Sinclair doesn't come unless he thinks he has power. He can make a good buck racing at London. He will need to do it again to get me to back him next time. He could easily do that, and even do it tonight. I like others just a bit better than him.

8 Rolling Rock is scratched.

9 Deadly Action didnt do enough last week and now draws outside of some sharper and older ones. I have to pass for now.

10 Toy Cop is progressing, but the post will really set him back here. Possible bottom of the tri or super type. I will watch. He seems to have talent and they are finding the right racing style for him.

No comments:

Post a Comment