Friday, December 2, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 2, 2016


1 Justasmalltowngirl is not one I can see on her current form and past history of getting beat even when she is good.

2 White Becomes Her takes a big class drop looking to end a year long drought. She is a likely contender, but no cinch. She is the ML choice, and I'd want 3-1 to even consider her. Not sure if she brings that. One of 2 or 3 I think have a legit shot in this race. I'm inclined to go to the other two.

3 Mr Putter I usually look up these types on the ship-in angle, but not this one. I know him well enough to know he wont do with this bunch. His win record and his trainers B track history of not bringing live ones to this circuit is clear to me. Pass and toss.

4 Deweykeepumnwhy  got around clean in the qualifier, and gets to drop even more here. I was willing to take a shot on top with him last time, but not here. There are others who don't need to be babied and finessed, and while he has more talent and speed than them, he doesn't tower over them. Pass. He is too risky for me at this stage when the price is still low.

5 Our Mojo just missed last week and thus, he gets another try with these. That is good enough for me from what I see of him. He only needs a decent trip and I'd think I might get 7-2 based on some others who can take money in this one. The fact that J Mac pulled pocket last time tells me he thinks he is very live off the shelf. This is his time of year to pile up bankroll.

6 Class Me Nice raced solid last time but didn't get there in spite of having every chance. He has a shot because he is on the edges. Others have better form and probably more ability.

7 Five Below if you read my comments last week, you would know I'm not impressed with this horse on the track. I like others better, so its easy for me to go to them and avoid him. He couldn't pass Entranced and almost let the 6 by him last week.

8 Severus Hanover draws slightly better and if there is a longshot upsetter in this race, he could be that one. Could be. He is one of those that doesn't perform most of the time, but then pops off a huge one every couple of months. I will watch him in the post parade, and if I like what I see, I'd add him to the pick 5 instead of the 3, who doesn't impress me of late.

9 Facing Justice is possibly a dangerous shipper, but with post 9, a month off, a trainer who doesn't know him and is prone to tinker and mess them up, as he has done with Night Witch, and a horrid win record, with a general lack of class I will take the stand this one is not viable tonight and watch to see how correct I am on that. These types can make a fool out of you. I will take that chance.

10 Meadowview Vicky is impossible to like on the variables that go against her...class rise, post draw, low percentage driver, and weak at best form.


1 Think Again backed away badly last week, and went home with Moreau. He has 2 lifetime wins. Pass for me.

2 Royal Canvas looks like he is going in the wrong direction again. Pass for me. He had a shot on the trainer bump, but didn't get there.

3 The Illuminator aborts the condition mission and gets realistic. He gets a better post and its possible he has hidden good form masked by bad posts and being overclassed for at least the last 4 starts, likely more than that. Its also possible that he isn't even good enough for this class. His lack of gate speed probably puts him in a hole here he cant dig out of. Probably. All bets are off when Zeron calls the shots on this type. He is the type you add if you have room.

4 Maserati Seelster tried to run away and hide from them, as that can work for him but he got picked up by one he meets again. Weller's seem to try that, then come back and trip out like Crankin It Up last night and find a sweet spot. I'm inclined to go to him here if the price is right. That price is 7-2, but I'd budge if he parades okay and take 3-1.

5 Sierra Madre loses Henseley and picks up Davis Jr. I don't like that swap, and I will pass on this one. He isn't the type that doubles up anyway. Off that win, the price gets slashed. Last week was the wedding with the nice cake. I don't want to attend the funeral with the tickets on the floor.

6 Sky Guy bombed last week as a really suspect, maybe even default, favorite. Zeron has his own, and that means A Mac is listed. Another trade I don't like. Not like I preferred this one anyway.

7 Mystic Deuce loses J Mac to Joe C, as it seems he will take all of his and ride the stable momentum, assuming he can do what he has done the last two winters. I liked what I saw from this one last week, and if the price is right, I will probably play him on top, if....I get something in the range of 7-1. I don't expect the 12-1 ML, but I wont take short money either.

8 Charmbo Orbit ships in with decent form, and he has shown the speed he needs when he has been here before. His last quarters seem a shade short of some of these. He has a shot if he improves.

9 Duneside Sport is one Joe C has claimed and is tinkering with. I dont like his breeding, nor his lines, nor his post. He will have to be seen. This might be one that he made a mistake taking. It happens. Its a numbers game for that guy.


1 Bad As Leader draws inside after 4 outside posts in a row. However, the outside has been better than the inside so far at this meet, and she might not get away any better in this spot. She has bad fave written all over her if she ends up being that. She has had a long and productive season, but they cant hold that form forever.

2 Sayitall Bb  drops out of the Preferred, and class relief can help one like her. There was also mention of some sickness last month in Cullen's barn, and a few performed well last night. She has been off 3 weeks, but I suspect Cullen trained her up last week. She has a shot, but as ML fave, I wouldn't want that short price on him. Post 2 has also not been a great post or starting spot at this meet. She will have to work for it. That could do her in.

3 Lovethewayoulook didnt have the same punch on her return to the races after she was halted due to a positive. She meets many in here who handled her last time and a couple of others who have pretty good form, with upward momentum. I like others.

4 Aintsheasweetie has decent improving form, but also a low percentage driver at this track, a style that goes against the overall bias, and a class rise without winning. Not this week for me, but I respect how she has improved.

5 Pop Goes Theweasel wired them last week, but she also pinned in her main rival and buried him in the lane, and had a tired one outside blocking the 2 path flow. I like others, but she is certainly sharp and rejuvenated.

6 Lindwood Beachgirl sat back last week and picked them off easily, at will. She moves up, but she has faced much tougher than all of these this year. Top call and I'd be happy with the ML quote.

7 Regally Ready moves up with the one who beat her last time. She is possible, but this field is as deep as you can get for a 7 horse field. She doesn't win that much. I probably dont put her on my ticket. She wouldn't shock me either though.


1 Kassaras Song comes around here in the winter when she wins out at Rideau. I like others and post 1 probably is enough to do her in. She was lucky enough to be in with maidens at Rideau last time. Tell me where I can get that free money too.

2 Shooteronbye raced 30 times this year and won 3 of those. Like many of those cheap conditioned claimers, she will have to be seen in her first start for Puddy off a few weeks.

3 Maddys Credit is above 15k now with her 3rd in the maiden last time, so she loses that chance at double dipping those chips. She has to face winners again, and she didn't beat maidens last time. I have to see more. Dorabella turned us on our heads last night and she is a similar kind. I will stick to my guns here.

4 Krystal C ships in from Flamboro for Carmen and his seemingly new owner. She is 3rd start lasix, and first start for the new trainer, but not off the claim. Top of my head, I think she is a half brother to Mac Raider. He improved late in his 3yo year, before he regressed later in the year. Her final quarters are horrid. I could go to her on the premise Carmen can turn that around on a dime, as he has before.

5 Jimmys Little Girl draws much better here and I can probably go to her if she parades fine. Her back half speed last time was superb, relative to this bunch of no talents or up and comers who haven't come yet. 15-1 ML, what can I say? If I could lock those odds in, I would do that on the spot. 5-1 at the high end is the best you can probably hope for.

6 Jimbelina looks solid on the page, and in appearance, takes a class drop, avoiding ones that wouldn't have fit this class in her last few. Her gate speed is a plus, and she has the post that works for that. If Fillion can fish out a breather for her this time, she will be tough to outpace late. If she doesn't get that, she can be picked up, but at least 2 of these.

7 Drift Panic has found the going tough here on the move away from Ratville East. I suppose she might find her way, but so far, she has not impressed. I will watch her. She could go back home with her tail between her legs and steal more purses there, but they leave her here so far, and lose money. There has to be a reason for that.

8 Zealous Seelster does well at the B's, but has had trouble lasting in the stretch at this track. Post 8 makes the trip to be not in her favor, and she can come late for the back end of the tri or super, but I don't see her mowing down the top 2, whoever that happens to be. She will have to up her game on the move to the big time.

9 Sunset Filly got a second crack at maidens and wired them, daylighting them in the lane and coasting home. She was impressive. Post 9 on the rise. I am inclined to go elsewhere, but she does have upside that would make me use her in the pick 4.

10 Poetic Dream comes in with 3 wins in a row. That is the good news. She draws the 10 hole and doesn't show anywhere near the speed of some of these. If she can pace in 56 and pick up a small slice, I'd think her connections would be thrilled. That doesn't do anything for me as a win bettor.

This is a race where post parade is very important. If you aren't capable of making that call, I'd take whatever top 7 you think have a shot and use them all. That would mean, for me, not using the 3, 8 or 10 if he is allowed to race.

1 Second Sister  has been rock solid for weeks, but was no match for the winner last time, who had her own way and just outsped them from the half. Lasix has really helped her finish. Post 1 will hurt her, and I will go to others. She needs every edge to get home first, and that is far from an edge to this point.

2 Lady Ping takes a class drop. I have to see her. She is one of those that can go either way. Post parade call for me. These aren't soft.

3 Shoot the Thrill goes off the claim for Puddy and he jacks him up. I cannot see how that is possible. Pass for me. If he is much better, he can beat me. He didn't look any better last time, and he has been through many barns and many have tried.

4 Adversity has spotty, inconsistent form, as has been his history. He is possible and another I have to watch.

5 Zeus Lightning gets a bit of class relief, and that is significant. He is no lock, but in the mix. I think he is just a bit below the top few in here, but he has enough talent still in the tank to step right back up to them without tipping his hand first.

6 Harper Blue Chip looks virtually done as a racehorse, and in his last two, showed signs he just wont hold up soundness wise. I will watch him parade. I am inclined at this point in the day to toss him and roll the dice. For the pick 4, where you have to make that call before you see him, I'd probably use him. He could have a good night, and crush this bunch.

7 Ramas Last Son takes a class drop and improves his post. From a statistical standpoint, post 7 is a big gain on post 9, which is a very low percentage post. That gives him a license to have a shot.

8 Fork is damaged goods and needs the bottom to be viable. Even when he reaches there, I'm not certain he isn't sucker money down there if he goes chalky.

9 Kinetic King put the trotting hopples on and that kept him steady. Not sure why it took 5 years to figure that out. In any event, he was pretty close to getting it done last time without them. I'm not fond of his driver, as a win proposition, but he is one of the best trainers out there. So, this one has longshot upside, if he brings price.

10 Smoother Ride looks impossible off the page, assuming he gets to race here, which he should not. He should be on the list for breaks.


1 Glory Jean didnt do enough to convince me she is a legit contender in this class. Lets see her again and see more effort. I wouldn't quite toss her, but others look better on form and past proven performance.

2 Sand Slinger is tough to figure in here. She comes off a vet scratch, more than month off , and now shows up with Joe C in her first start for him. She could easily be a bad overbet if the bettors want to go to her off those cheap claimer lines. This is a monster class rise relative to those. She won her last two off the most perfect trips you can get. I cant see her in here, but I will watch. She will get her class tested tonight.

3 Queenofhearts takes the lower tag again, but draws in 5 spots here. That is a better scenario for her. I like others better as she has not shown she can beat A track horses. Her record is at Northville, and she loses some cache with me when she meets an entire field who look viable at this track in some class. She doesn't. Bit player type who can pick up shares when the better ones are used hard and fade.

4 Casimir Pardon Me is progressing nicely, but she meets many in here who are at least 2 levels above her in the class department. I like her, but pass for tonight. Her time will come again shortly.

5 Miss Jones Shooter needs to trip out. I think that is pretty clear. Trevor must think so, because he gives her that trip every time, and is willing to roll the dice it gets him trapped, as it did last week. Those types sometimes find the right trip at decent odds when newcomers come to town and the winner last week has a tough post which could cost them. If I were to see 4-1 here, I could be persuaded to go to her on top.

6 Howmacscanasta  had very live 2nd over cover, but Jackie Mo was chasing her with the whip the entire way and the field was just moving faster than her at every point, including the stretch. She could be the type that goes 57 over Truro and 56 over Woodbine and needs to seek out B track types to make that profitable. She can take a healthy class drop to non winners of last 3 at those tracks with a zero tonight. I'd be watching her to see how that play will shape up either way.

7 Sunset Sara had no pace last week, and Moreau immediately tags her. This looks like a better fit, and I'd be willing to try her if the price is right, something like 6-1.

8 Diamond Tested was an also ran last week, and draws the 8 hole with similar, and at least one other who is added with some upside. I can't see her. She looks as overmatched this week as she did last week.

9 Nips Beach Girl takes the high tag for Allard on the track change, and obviously, a much tougher bunch than she blitzed at Philly. JJ is aboard, as you would expect, The sudden dive in class from Yonkers nw types to a very cheap claimer, coupled with Oakes being the previous trainer, when he is a known cheater who has junk few others have access to...even Allard, means this race is thrown into some peril. I'd have to use her in the picks, but only because she is so unknown. Otherwise, I'd avoid her and pick another one. Allard is doing horrible at this track without the freedom to get away with what he does at Yonkers and Philly. Post 9 makes it tougher but if she guns, it could set up for something else, especially if she takes out the 10 with her.

10 Bring Me Diamonds takes the high tag again, and gets a tough post to go with it. They know that when they enter, so they must feel at this level it doesn't matter and they will protect their stable charge for now. With the allowance, that would scare off most of the takers with only two cards left for these types to race. She went a long mile last time but got it done anyway. She could easily be 8-5 from the 10 hole. I took it last week, although I thought I was getting 5-2 until the bell and it flipped. I wouldn't take it this week knowingly. I like her, but the odds against that being a profitable play are against me if I do that over time. J Mac ditches her for Joe C's new kid in town. That certainly is a factor in my thought process.


1 Katies Beach was off stride for a few steps last time trying to leave. She never does that, so, I have to think she didn't handle the track for some reason, or she needed a shoeing adjustment. That was the end of her chances, but otherwise she has been very competitive with this bunch for weeks. She avoids the top 3 from last week, and that is a plus. She has a legit shot if she can overcome the rail and get away up close. That is possible with one like her with high gate speed. If she can do that, she is viable and a longshot chance. Trevor is her 7th different driver in 7 starts. He has been known to wake up and gas one out of there. She is the right type of fit for his style, or vice versa.

2 Dontbruisecarrie goes to Carmen off an ok line, but she also didn't look good after the wire. She will have to be seen. These look way too tough for her from what I've seen of her.

3 Naughty Lady B has decent form, but possibly needs a class drop. Her win 3 back keeps her from making that move down.  I cant see her against some pretty tough customers in here.

4 Lady Jen takes a big class rise and comes back on short notice. I cant see her going with these in any variable I could come up with.

5 Miss Babe Delight gets the top driver from the stable this time, and also gets away from the 10 hole, where she did the best she could given the bias she was up against. She hooked wheels in the first start for the stable, but was still pretty good then. I can't see the 12-1 ML being accurate and would think 9-2 is about the right range. She has a shot if she avoids road trouble. Her lone win all year was taken at Trois Rivieres. That is a concern, but not a toss factor because she was connected with a low percentage trainer, not her current boss, who has lit up that owners stable on the barn change.

6 Killean Finale was listed as a sale entrant at Harrisburg, but comes back to this circuit a month later with the same connections. They either didn't get their price, decided to keep her, or she improved greatly just after they put her in the sale. I choose to think it was the latter. I have loved what I've seen from her in her last 3. The month off concerns me, and I'd probably go to others here, but she is on my radar for many scores this winter, possibly the start after this.

7 Bernadette got a mini break after the grassroots final, in which she didn't get any money. I'm not sure she is any more than a bit player here anyway, but I'd think she will need one to get up to speed with a few of these. I will watch. She will run in or out bad at times. Maybe the time off will help her with that type of thing.

8 Lady Marina won the Autumn final against a very soft bunch, relative to these. Post 8 tonight. I can toss her. I don't see her going with this bunch at all.

9 Three Dreams got the parking ticket and hopefully that was the wake up call Cullen needed to drive smarter race to race. He will always be aggressive, because that is his style, but he needs to picks his spots. He has seemed to do that this week, and if so, he goes to the back and brushes late, waiting for another day with this one. If she drops the bottom line, she can go right to the bottom class next time and make 6k for the win. She could even win one of those at Flamboro and then double dip in that class and come home with 10k for 2 weeks work.

10 Wasaga Beach was better last week and tripped out, nailing the main foe on the line. McNair goes to Carmen's one. I can't see this one from this post on the class rise. Lets see how she travels this week to have a better read on her when she gets a more viable starting spot.


1 Eldorado of Gold S drew post 8 last time, coming off the shelf, was taken to the back and then came home evenly. Post 1 probably doesn't help him get much better of a trip here. I like others and I don't like him anyway. Not for me.

2 Crown Classic took back last week, but was rolling late on the outside. She isn't always consistent in terms of showing up, but she catches a beatable bunch if she does. She has a longshot shot.

3 Muscles All Over has multiple strikes against him. Class, driver, form at the top of that list. He has to show me more. I could give him a pass on the driver, who might actually be pretty good. The other two I cannot. He looks over his head, and his win record is the icing on that pass cake.

4 Stormont Wizard has missed a month and raced sparingly this year, with no wins to show for it. He is hard to like, but talented enough on his best day. Your call. I have to see him.

5 Win the Day had the rail start last time, and that is a consideration when he looked like he wanted to leave and close the 2 hole, but couldn't. He might be able to do the same thing but get there from the 5 hole. I suppose he has a punchers chance if it plays out that way. He was gapping in the lane last week, but he traveled the inside path the entire way, and maybe that was not a good place to be.

6 Amityville Lindy was running briefly last time off the gate, but not enough to chart an X. That is two in a row he has blown his chance early. Since he has a long history of doing that, I think whatever Pat was doing for a while is now not working. I will pass on him and he can beat me if he somehow turns that around and rights the ship. He has 6 lines on the page and has not made the super.

7 Grana Padanno was done in by the 10 hole last week, but raced hard and wasnt far off the winner. I'd think he is the favorite here, and I'm not sure I take that short a price on him, although I think he is in the mix and likely to make the ticket.

8 Musical Spell was the early leader last time, but 3 leader changes later he was sitting 4th and pulled first up, going nowhere and hanging, bearing in bad in the last turn and spent by the tote board. Post 8 back in with basically the same bunch only makes it tougher. Cant use him as he appears currently.

9 Domedomedome made a gate break last time and now has been 3 weeks away. She drops back to the classes where she was 2nd twice, but had better posts both of those times. I cant use her with the strikes against her on the page.

10 Maximuscle draws the 10 hole. I thought he was viable off his last race if he had drawn well again and possibly been slightly better. He didn't. Maybe next week.


1 Shadys M Three I see nothing to suggest she is in the mix with these currently.

2 Double Olives ships back in with very suspect form. Her last quarters are not acceptable to me, and that used to be her bread and butter when she was winning last year.

3 Shellyssilvermoon took way back last time, as she is prone to do, and never really got involved. She was okay. Just okay, as she seems to be most nights. Her time to upset the apple cart will come. That could be tonight. I have to not like others that I might otherwise like, off the post parade, to use her by default. Her win percentage over the last two years is less than inspiring.

4 Voodoo Charm was a really  bad 4-5 fave last time. She was steppy the time before, on the engine and away clean last week, but she had a 5-1 shot pull pocket on her. Obviously the drivers didn't feel about her like the public did, and she showed why sometimes the drivers know better. She did end up locked in for a bit, but she had a clear lane in the stretch, and while she did go forward, she didn't pace away from the ones behind her and actually lost 3rd to a big longshot. I'm sure she gets overbet again because of being locked in. I'd have to go against her once again. She shows troubling signs. I will wait and if she continues to lose, this type usually goes up in odds when the sheep follow another sucker money pack leader, and she will be potential value then.

5 Sportsillustrator comes in off a win at Flamboro and ships in for Gilmour, who bags Trevor to try and double up. She wears spreaders and doesn't travel well, as is the case with many from her sire. She had poor 2nd over cover last time, which forced her 3 wide early, but in spite of that, she mowed down the even money fave on the line. I don't know that she has the ability for this class rise test. I put nothing past Gilmour to gas this one up, but will it be enough?

6 Justabit Mean shipped to Flamboro to try and braven up and steal a purse, but she could only nab 4th. She takes a big drop coming back here, and perhaps the goal was to drop the 5th line. In any event, she will probably be a short price, and Cullen grabs the lines again. She is habitually a very slow starter and she isn't always that motivated to come get them if she has to work for it. I'm inclined to pick another if she is shorter than 3-1, which is probable. Phil took the 10 horse over her.

7 Artistic Madison is obviously a risky play at this stage with her issues. But, she does have talent and fired off 2 27 and change quarters on the back end last time. She isn't likely to look sound parading, but if she just looks okay, and the price is right, I'd be including her in any play. These are so weak, she might get by on 70% of her ability. I'd be interested if she looks ok and draws 7-1 or higher. Menary has been known to make this type go, as he did with Nicholas Ryan and Jenkins Creek when they didn't look too good coming into races.

8 Whistys Paradise is not one I can back with how she has been racing and how she starts..or doesn't start. She should be in a claimer to have a better shot to pass horses that come back to her. Not all of these will, nor have they. Foolish way to race her.

9 Call It Courage had nothing last time from a decent post and now draws the 9 hole. She is a low percentage winner for a trainer with the same variable. Unless they write a class even lower than this, she isn't dangerous anymore at this track as she has shown. Maybe she comes around. I don't see any evidence of that so far this winter.

10 Ainsleynoelle drops to the bottom, but draws the bad straw of the 10 hole. I would roll the dice and leave her off the late pick 4 and think the 10 hole finds a way to beat her.


1 Twenty Three Red moves to Carmen as her previous trainer is on the bad boy list. Auciello does very well with underperforming Mach Three mares when they come to him. That has to be considered here. She takes a very substantial class rise here. At the most, he has had her 6 days. I'm not sure that is enough or that she is good enough for these anyway. I will watch her once to see if there is any improvement. She might be a solid play if he gets her going and she goes back in for 15 or 20. To go with most of these, she will need at least 2 more seconds overall. She is 2nd time lasix, that cant be ignored as she went forward last week.

2 Never Any Doubt has been off a month sick, and looks like she is one class short of these even if she was 100% fit and healthy. Her last win, she was drifting out. I have to pass on her for now. I will watch to see where she is at for a better try next time.

3 Docs Sausalito missed 3 weeks between starts because she was late for retention, but she was solid last time, although likely outclassed at this stage by the top 3 or 4. She had a good rail trip, but swung wide coming out of the turn, only to hang a shade late in a blanket finish. It was a decent effort, and if she can get out closer, she would be more likely to put that one big brush to better use. She has developed slowly and in stages. Dropping from nw4 to nw3 is a big help to her.

4 Queenofthejungle went to the back and closed with the pack last time. She has 1 win in 29 this year. She has one brush. That will play in some field once this winter. I don't think this is that field.

5 Marvalous Jet joins the Nixon outfit and comes in with almost a month off from her last US race. She pretty much wired that bunch after letting the dust settle early. You can't knock her results or talent, relative to this bunch. Her 11 for 38 record is also impressive. JJ sticks with Allard's one, as he seems to be hooked up with that trainer, as Simon seems to be making a winter home at Northfield.

6 Bettys Bay was okay last time, on the move up off a decent win. I'm not sold she is good enough for these, or if she is, not yet. I will watch her and go to others. She has soundness issues, but might be the type that can go with them. She loses Phil to the 7 horse. She will have to improve her final quarters to beat this kind. I don't see that speed...yet.

7 Top Royal bagged 3rd off a rail start in the Autumn final, which came up pretty soft with important scratches, which greatly helped her cause. She was spinning her wheels with this kind before she entered that series. I will go to others.

8 Dewar N Soda left out well last time and settled in the 3 hole, but Henry yanked her out early, thinking he was going to clear, but she never did or looked like she would, and she was all done by the turn. She can get like that. She was in with her own kind in the Autumn, but will find it tougher to grind it out with more experienced and talented mares. This week she avoids many of those, so, I suppose she has a shot. Post 8 will hurt her, so, I will list her on the edges with a shot to make the back end of the ticket if things go her way. She isn't the most determined of types.

9 Collective Wisdom made an aggressive move to the lead last time and then parked out another who ground her down. Post 9 this week is a big disadvantage for her. I'd think she is headed for the 15/20 conditioned claimer shortly. I cant see her in this spot.

10 Tempus Seelster was driven smartly by trainer/driver Zeron in the Autumn to bag 20k over the entire series. Tonight is a different story. She is really up against it with this post. Maybe another day.

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