Saturday, December 3, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 3, 2016


1 Mach Power left sharply, and was sitting pretty until Saftic moved, forced McNair to move, and then he had to move as well, before he likely wanted to. He hung late, but he was better overall than normal. Post 1 will compromise him here, but JJ gets along best with him. He was listed last week but was absent at post time. He has a shot at a price.

2 Flaherty came out running last time, and that was the end of his chances. Cullen has been replaced, and Henry, who has done very well with him, is sticking with Weller's. That leaves Fillion to take control. He has not been driving great, and his results this meet reflect that. But he is still the top percentage driver at this track, and Budd is still one of the best trainers out there with this kind of horse. Longshot shot to turn it around. He paced a 26.2 3rd quarter once he got is composure back. He still has sharpness when he behaves and gets a trip.

3 Think on It comes in off 5 straight, and people love to hammer this type. I don't. Cant knock his results, but I can notice the trips have all gone his way. These are tougher, some older and more experienced. I will take my shot against him and leave him off the pick 5 and double, whichever I play.

4 Late Night won again, and has to step up sharply. I cant say I'm impressed when the 2nd place finisher is Migrate Blue Chip. Pass and I like a few a lot better.

5 Dreamy Fella beat a suspect bunch last week, but he beat them. Another who jumps way up. I like others and think he won the race he could, and now needs to find a claimer.

6 Electric Western has become a very effective stalk from the pack and close late type. That gets him a lot of 2nd and 3rds, but not many wins. His 53.4 back half jumps off the page. He could find the right mix this time and get there first. He has a shot, like many others.

7 Reel looks outclassed and outformed by this bunch, top to bottom. If he drops the line and gets no money, he fits where he was 2nd down the page. That is a better spot if he holds form and comes back there next time. I will keep my eye on him for that. He has soundness and sturdiness issues to consider.

8 Good Friday Three came to life at London last time, and you cant ignore the ability he has if somehow Robinson has found why he has gone so far off form. He is one to consider and I would use him and toss the 3, 4 and 5 instead, who all come off wins, and some multiple wins in a row, but will be overbet and meet tougher here. He could easily just be NFG again, but he could also reverse form as Late Night has, and Dreamy Fella has.

9 Perfect Vista draws bad for a very low percentage trainer. I cant see him in any way, and he is an easy toss for me. He would do well to go way down the ladder when the earnings allow that. 9k comes off this week.


1 Regal Son races sporadically, and thus, I think there is some issue there. Sickness was listed as the last race reason. When he does race, he makes the ticket about 50% of the time. He doesn't win much. I will call him for a minor award of some sort.

2 Thorn in Your Side is and has always been a noted front end specialist who will carry that a long way if he gets the breather he needs. He is a big brute of a horse, and the big track should be his forte, but he also carries a sensational gait and very quick step when asked for it. JJ goes to Allard, so J Mac picks up the mount. He will have to up his ballgame to beat these, but he is capable of that. Reasonable minor shot if the trip works out. A lot of these find ways to lose. That gives him a shot to win by default.

3 Ys Lotus has tailed off sharply since the summer, when he won the Cup and Saucer. He was a beast then. Not so much now. I like others here and Allard is not winning races at this track.

4 Vegas Rocks comes off two rails and an 8 hole, and thus, he might have hidden form. It isn't that hidden though, as he was a nice winner 4 back, and a large daylight winner 6 back. He gets a bit of class relief here, and is likely to blast out and hope to ride a 2 hole the entire way. If so, and room appears he is very viable as a play in this one.

5 Cool Rock loses Trevor to the 9 and gains Cullen. No thanks. Driver matters for this one. You have to time his move just right at this level, and you have to know him well to do that.

6 Asap Hanover was sharp last week, but has trouble with this level of pacer. I like others better and would leave him off the pick 5.

7 Mach Pride wired a soft bunch relative to most of these last week. As he has aged, he has trouble with this level, and isn't as dangerous without control. I think the bias and class is against him here.

8 Gratias Deo a new recruit for Moreau, who has been off a month and draws the 8 hole. He will have to do better against this level of competition. Most open pacers at Dayton, unless they are grave exceptions, are borderline 20 claimers at this track. He missed a cheque with them last time. He will have to be seen.

9 Mach Code is Trevor's choice. That wont matter too much to me tonight, but it will be something I consider as an opinion he has of this horse, when he ditches a Cool Rock, who he has done very well with. Post 9 is a big issue for this one here. I have to go to others. He likes to speed out, and he will have company here if he attempts that.


1 Big Tsunami had no shot drawing the 9 hole last time. She is very competitive at this level, which she drops to tonight. Her 6 for 83 win record will lead me to list something else to win.

2 Victoria Semalu paced a top effort from the 10 hole last week, and her form is rock solid on the barn change. She dropped a line there, and is allowed to get back in with these. Big shot, and there are enough viable ones to expect a reasonable price. 7-2 seems fair, but 3-1 is tolerable. Anything approaching 2-1 is bad value.

3 Wildcat Magic  takes a class drop, but I like others. Her best style is coming from way out of it. I think she wont take them all down in with this bunch. Jackie Mo is 2 for 2 with her on the page. But, its not enough to sway me.

4 Greystone Ladylike was done in by post last week. That is the game. She draws better here and is likely to blast, and either follow one or try to wire them. She looks like the one to me, but not the only one. She has soundness issues. I will have to see her parade. If she is holding up, I'd probably list her on top.

5 P L Hurricane gets to drop back to the scene of her last win. In that one, and the one before, she was hanging on for dear life at the wire. This field is deeper than those, even though the purse is the same. I like others.

6 Rubis Prescott goes lower in class than anything she shows on the page. That matters greatly to her. She was much better last week, and she seems to float between poor and excellent. She is one of a few, but I like two others better. She would be no shock, and a must use in the pick 5 to CYA.

7 Kiss Me or Not moves up sharply with the 8. I don't like either of them in this spot with the ones inside them. Pass.

8 Sing Like an Angel pass. see above.


1 Barockey drops back down, after being whipped by far better last week. She has okay form with these. I like others. She finds ways to lose at this stage in her career.

2 Bet Ya as expected, she was in jail last time, dropped the line and drops sharply in class. She fired off a 53.4 back half last week to get beat 2. She should handle this bunch. I only see one who can take her.

3 Icthelight Hanover I'm not fond of playing ones that need to go to Plainridge to get wins when they come back here. I will have to see how she fits back on home turf. I don't think she can do with most of these.

4 Maplelea  draws better here with a few that wont leave at all from the outside. That gives her a reasonable chance to get away 5th or 6th, and not at the back with "no pace" traffic in her road. She has a big shot to take down the 2 if she can pick up nice outer flow.

5 J High is the easiest toss of the night for me. No way.

6 Show Some Leg made one huge move to bury the mutts last week, and now has to face talented ones again. That tactic wont work here. Pass.

7 Miss Coco Luck did not get away well as expected last time. That was her chance to do something. Her lack of gate speed of late indicates to me she might be tired. This will be start 85 in two years. I cant back her off what I see.

8 Your My Secret got up late to shock for 3rd last week, but loses Saftic to another. I'd have to see more than one decent effort to think she overcomes this post and beats them all. Fillion is added. That is a plus. Its not enough for me.

9 Docs Diva got the tough trip from the 9 hole last week and that did her in. Same post, cant go to her off the lines. Her time will come again this winter. She is variable. Not tonight for me.

10 Brookdale Shadow loses Saftic to a bit player, and draws the 10 hole. 2nd easiest toss of the night. Same race.


1 Migrate Blue Chip was bearing out very badly at the wire last time. He has major issues. Its nw4 not nw3 this time. Suggests there is something even tougher he cant beat. Not like he needs a reason for me to toss him anyway.

2 Mach Messier couldn't beat nw2, so it appears to me he is ahead of himself racing this class. I cant go to him from what I see. Conditioned claimer seems like the spot he will have to go to.

3 Quick Fun N was racing some very tough customers at Yonkers relative to this bunch. He had the 8 hole a month ago at Pocono. I would think Ben B has trained him up and figured him out since he paid 23k at Harrisburg for him. He doesn't buy pacers often, but he didn't forget how to train those either, and when he first came to this circuit 20 years ago, he made a good buck with the right ones. He picked this one out. I have to think he is very live tonight.

4 Twomacsonemach didn't have it last week, but he also had the rail, which could have been a factor. Trevor is back on board as Weller doesn't have one here. I could use him on the factors listed. He has won 1/3rd of his races this year and is tough as nails if he gets control.

5 Jack Rackham continues to show me nothing to convince me he should be in this race and not a 10 claimer. He has to do a lot better.

6 Luke and Duke is one we have not seen before, and he is a homebred for his owner. He is 2nd start Dave Byron, and that has to be respected. I doubt he brings him here if he didn't think that was a wise move. His 55.1 mile at Flamboro stacks up with the best this group shows. I have to see him, but I'm inclined to put him on any multi race ticket I would play.

7 Dreamfair Mesa is not performing. I wont back him until I see some sort of change in some way. I think possibly a trainer change with a new owner who will let that trainer call the shots is needed. I will wait for that. Until then, he is a no play for me.

8 Cams Lucky Sam seems to be a show up, dont show up type. Post 8 is likely to convince him to not show up this week. He has " big score at a price" written all over him this winter. I think that is not this week but I will hope to market time him right for that play. If he does it tonight and beats me to the punch, I will accept that.

9 Speedling is not one I would ever back with a post position disadvantage like this. He falls into the same category as the 8, but as well, not one I'd go to tonight. Note he was an early scratch.

10 Tango Star is 2 for 28 life and has the 10 hole. He can be very funky gaited at times. I find it hard to think there is a spot I will ever play him in.


1 Party in Rome is a victim at this track of her own success and that there isn't a class between where she won and this one. Not much can be done with her but watch her and wait for the drop when that plays out. She is the type that might get sold to the States where they find openings for this type.

2 Waasmula turned it around last week and pulled the upset. She will see a shorter price now. I will go to others. There are plenty to choose from. Its a different one every week in this class. She had her turn.

3 Delightful Hill loses McNair on the musical chair game. He goes to the 5, while JJ goes to the 6. I have given this one enough chances to get it done. She hasn't with these. If she misses the ticket this time, she gets a healthy class drop next week. I will watch her very closely. My play on her tonight is to figure out my play on her next time. She must be watched closely. She is in the position tonight Bet Ya was last time.

4 Wrangler Magic continues to try and wire them, and fail each a different one every time. I've seen enough. I will go to others and let her beat me if it works out here.

5 Sandbetweenurtoes loses JJ as he is locked into Allard. She skipped last week, but isn't really the type that goes every 7 days. I like her tonight, in spite of losing the driver that does best with her. McNair has convinced me he is using his head more these days, and the results reflect that. He has a lot of power to work with here. He got this owners one a big prize at Dover, and I'm sure he is very motivated to latch onto that account and lock it up.

6 Yagonnakissmeornot was off a month going into the last race and just went around, no threat, but paced a back half in 54.2, back to back 27.1's. She has a big shot here on the class factor and hopefully better fitness and the right post.

7 D Gs Pesquero drops her 5th line here, and hopefully that gets her a drop in class next week and she holds the sharp form she moved up with. She is miles over her head with these based on the last couple of years.

8 Imagine Dragon was a solid 2nd best last week in her debut for Zeron. Post 8 will hurt one when there are so many viable ones inside her. I'd think she is 3rd or 4th this time, and will take her turn again sometime later in the month or next.

This race is thrown into peril by the variables in play on the 2 horse. That won should have been made to qualify, but the rules allow for him not to, and puts the bettors behind the 8 ball in terms of figuring out what might show up. Play this race at your own risk. Lots of unknowns, and they aren't minor ones.

1 Rose Run Rudi  shows flashes of the type that will find a spot this winter at odds. I keep watching. I don't think this is that spot. He is a trip horse to the core. Another day, and different starting spot.

2 Sweet Royalty is a new recruit, qualified about 6 weeks ago, but has not raced, changes barns, shows a whack of X's on the page, but shows high speed and stakes ability. Who knows what we will get? Nobody but Ben B and his inner circle do.

3 Swan for Dee got the jump on a suspect bunch last week, but was very wobbly legged coming to the wire. These look deeper and tougher. I would be inclined to go to others.

4 Majestic Presence won the final of the Autumn after being solid in both legs. The trip was perfect last time and the 2nd place horse came back to win this week. She has a shot ,but this race is all over the map in terms of what she might face. One of many who have a shot on paper. I want to see her parade and see if those miles have taken anything out of her. Many who come out of those series, racing in consecutive weeks dont fare well back in overnights.

5 Air Glider is a new purchase for Allard, gets FTL and picks up JJ, who is now looking like the stable contract driver for this track. That means he moves off the 3 here who he got home last time. This one is 2 for 24 lifetime.

6 Striknglyimpresive was back to the bad behavior last time. Took my shot on her last week. That is the one shot I will take with her this year.

7 Maker a Yankee didn't look quite right on the track last week parading, and possibly she was protected. She wasn't horrible and I have to think Blake will tinker with her. I give her a shot to turn it around. She also comes back faster this time. She has a shot. So do many others.

8 Mission Man draws poorly again, and gets the switch back to Saftic. He isn't impossible, nor is he likely. If you are going deep in this one, which I think you must, this is another to add.

9 Windsun Missile will have to be seen. He is going the wrong way on form, has a bad post and a driver who isn't on when they are meant to win once they clear nw2. Pass for me. I will watch. He is likely to come around again this winter.

10 Joyous Hall was an early scratch.


1 Evenin of Pleasure seems very flat of late, and has a license to be that way. He raced his heart out all year and bagged 260k in the process. After this start, another Moreau stablemate will move up, and he will drop into a softer condition if he doesn't make the top 2 here. I will wait for that play. Not leaving at all last time and Fillion picking against him then is reason for me to think he is a toss tonight.

2 American Virgin  wired them last week but these are much tougher and deeper. I like others based on what I've seen from him.

3 Ellis Park comes back off a short layoff, which he looked like he needed badly. I will watch him to see if he looks better than when we last saw him, when he was being chased to keep up but wasn't doing so.

4 Andreios Kardia looks for 5 in a row against these. He will have to deal with a tighter Nickle Bag this time. Your call. I wouldn't take a short price here, but I said that last week and then he didn't bring one.

5 Nickle Bag is my top call here. He just seems to come around and win when this time of year rolls around. He was gaining on the winner last time but not many could go any more than he was last time, and he would have had to go more to take him down. I'd expect he is closer up this time. He has been known to leave and take control before when he is really good.

6 Alexas Jackpot was FTL last time, and it stepped him up. JJ goes to Allard's and that is a strike against this one. Not because PH cant drive a horse, but JJ seems to know what makes this one tick. Pass.

7 Domethatagain  was 2nd best to one who he moves up with here. I cant see him, although his talent is not in question. The top 2 currently look much better than him. Current form is always the most important factor.

8 Nirvana Seelster looks impossible in this spot the way he has raced lately. He is 80 starts the last two years. I see some fatigue lately. He could use the winter off. He is not likely to get it.


1 Walk to Folsom draws the rail, and that did him in last time, in addition to a minor class rise. He had no choice but to settle in mid pack, and then sit. That got him a bad shuffle and little room until late, when he came back on and went all he could. I might expect the same start, but a brush to the top attempt this time. I could see him turning the tables, but the price will have to be there. This field is not as deep as last week, and there will be less likely resistance to that sort of move. He is possible. I'd want 7-2 to consider him viable for that sort of scenario to play out.

2 Abc Winner ships in as an unknown, and Goodwin has made that variable pay off in the past. This one is a slow starter, and that is problematic when he is taking on much tougher than he usually sees. He didn't handle much softer well in his only start here, and now has missed a bit of time as well. He isn't impossible, but he will need a lot of luck, and a few logical ones to bomb out. Very minor shot.

3 Manofmanyimages changed tactics last week, as he left out and secured a 2 hole. That got him a shuffle as the leader caved in and the first up horse pinned him in as the winner found the best flow. He trotted hard right to the wire and saved 3rd. He is one of those that finds it hard to win, but he seems to be improving overall every start he shows up. He will likely be another short price tonight. I thought he should have finished a bit better considering he had a lane to do so. I will go to others on top. He isn't my top choice, but obviously he is hard to leave off the pick 4.

4 Honor Above All couldn't handle two he meets again here last out. He might have hit a wall, or maybe just needs some time to adapt to these. He is possible if the ones that edged him out go backwards, don't perform, or get bad trips. Shot.

5 Batoutahill picked off a drawing away but badly tiring leader last time, but has to move up here to ones that look a bit farther advanced than she has shown. The lasix seemed to help, but I doubt Vanderkamp wants to win right off the bat in this class, even if she is capable at this stage, which is in doubt. I will pass on her and roll the dice against MV.

6 Pink Pistol raced good last week to be 3rd best, but must move up sharply. Her overall class means you cant toss her if she is back on course, and I wont. I have to see her. She paraded very nicely last week, and is a viable longshot to go to here if you arent fond of the short price you have to take on the inside 2 who will be the favorites.

7 Air Dynamic  is a new horse for A Mac, and is off a month since racing claimers at the Meadows. He looks far over his head with this bunch, and will have to be seen.

8 Smash Hit doesn't figure in any way with these, or even the ones she raced last time. Total pass for me. Not sure where this one goes to find a level. This isn't it.

9 Ready Any Time switches Henrikson's, but shows nothing to suggest she is competitive with this bunch, even from the inside. Post 9 makes it easier to just watch her and see where she is at.  She has been off 5 weeks.

10 Meadowbranch Memo is a 3yo with 107k in the bank. That jumps off the page at you. He goes first time Johnson. That gets your attention. He fired off a fast 3rd quarter last time, so there is something to work with. Post 10 is certainly an issue. I have to see this one trot. I am inclined to take a bunch of possible longshots in here and make up a nice late pick 3 ticket. He is probably one of those. Only one of them has to win.


1 Prescotts Hope galloped off the gate, as I thought he might. He was ever so close to doing that the week before, but pulled it together and then kept it together. He had a great run for a year and a bit, but that is now in the rear view mirror. He did pace a back half in 54.2, and that is not ratty territory. Post parade is everything with this horse and he must be pacing smooth, and going to the gate pacing. Your call. I will make mine when I see him. He doesn't meet a terribly soft bunch like the ones he beat 2 back and is up a couple of levels from that race.
2  Dialamara moves up without winning, but bagged 2nd twice. I am of the opinion he is borderline at the lower level, and overmatched at this one. He also didn't look sound in his last, and needed some rest to get back racing. Pass and watch.
3 Velocity Driven is picking up nice slices, and even has a win 4 back, so, even though he is one of many a level lower, he must move up off a 2nd place finish. Because he has been good enough before, I wouldn't toss him on the rise. He does have to do better though. He has altered his overall style, from closer to leaver and follower. That gets him trapped at times, but it also gets him a soft trip like last time. He is possible if things go his way. J Mac sticks with Joe C, so JJ takes over. Tomato/tomato.

4 A Cool Card  a new face on the scene, comes in with the Joe C string. He seems to bag a solid 75k every year, and he is a decent fit with this bunch. He has missed a month, and that is a factor against this type of competition. His 16 for 60 win record is impressive, especially when you see the type of company he keeps. I will probably list him a shot and take him 2nd or 3rd, but I want to see him.

5 Sunny Beach Day takes a big jump in class, and just got up on the wire last time. I think he is over his head with these.

6 Company Man was severely compromised at the start last week when he got squeezed between two breakers at once and was pinched in a tight spot in between them. He made it through the fire, and regrouped. but didn't pull when the pace was going to go against him at that stage and he would be running at a Moreau horse with a Moreau horse if he had done that. He split horses late and paced up to get 3rd, the only race he could have won after the trip he fell into. His 26.4 last quarter is an indication of where he is at, and I'd probably go to him if the price is reasonable. He gets to drop a shade here, and I'd take 5-2 on him. That is well below his ML assessment.

7 Bugger Bruiser has returned some sharpness to his resume, but has had to move back up the ladder, where he meets others with more talent and grit than he has. McNair has done some handicapping for us here. He drives a lot for both trainers, and he went next door. Pass for me.

8 Daylight Rush was given a heads up steer last time and paced away with the 2nd move. He was bearing out bad at the wire, but some of them do that and go forward. He is one of those. He gets in on a special earning condition, but he also now has to tackle a few who aren't moving up the ladder, but have been all the way to the roof and back a few times. I think he is possible, but not my top play against a few who wont cave like the ones he beat off in his last two.

9 Casimir Overdrive draws bad and will look to drop some money. That will take two starts. I will wait until he moves back down to consider him. Not tonight in this spot and this post for me.


1 Trashytonguetalker made his first start at this track last week, floating out mid pack, picking up cover that wasn't very live, but towed him up and carried him as far as he needed to go. If not for the cinchy, going away winner who has a resume this one does not, he was a much the best, eased up winner. As he was willing to rough it from mid pack, post is not that big a factor with this one. He does meet tougher company this time. I'm inclined to wait one more on him. His 54.4 back half on a cold and slightly rainy night can't be ignored. He has winning form, but needs to find the right fit...class wise.

2 Champagne Phil  drew the 10 hole last week, and that sealed his fate early. He took the back of the bus approach, when normally he likes to be near the top. He spotted them 17, and did not move until the top of the lane, when he swung out wide and got beat a closing 6, picking up 5th money. His back half in 54 flat. He is razor sharp and has competed with these before. He takes a slight rise here, but he is viable if he holds the form with the improved starting slot. The last 2 years, he has won at a 25% clip. When spotted right, he knows where the wire is.

3 Half a Billion  was forced to race over his head his last few at this track, so he made the move to Flamboro for a couple and to drop some money. Mission accomplished. He isnt the greatest leaver, and that makes him a slave to trip. I could see him if the flow favors him.

4 Paparazzi Hanover draws better this week, and catches a bit of a softer field. That is in his favor. I still think he is slightly over his head, and he will drop a win off the bottom with this start. That gets him to the bottom class, where can dominate currently. I like others better in this spot, but I am watching him very closely this week. He will be short money next time if he doesn't make the ticket here. He went back of the bus last week and then brushed home with the pack. I expect more of the same, but possibly mid pack this time.

5 Woggy Rocks left out hard from the 7 hole and secured the 2 hole ride all the way around, following the eventual winner. He wasn't nearly as potent at this level as he was the previous start at the bottom. Unless he wants to wait another 4 starts to drop that winning line, he probably needs to seek out a claimer, which is mostly what he has always been and where he has made the majority of his bankroll. I will pass on him in with this bunch. He doesn't have the finish most of them do.

6 Wazzup Wazzup has missed an entire month, and that is a concern for one with a history of soundness problems. He does drop on his return. He probably draws a short price, and I'd be likely to seek out others for price. He can go either way. I will go elsewhere and roll the dice that he has an issue that gets him beat.

7 Single White Sock is 4 for 49 the last two years, and shows troubling signs of late. He has always looked steppy lame, but he goes. Lately, he has balked at going to the gate. That is a sign he is tired of the pain. He looks like a bit player at best with these.

8 Carracci Hanover was flat last time, for whatever reason, and gets to go even lower this time. The price will go up, but post 8 is a problem for him. I liked him last time, but I will probably list him on the bottom of the ticket and play price for the win slot. He could make me pay, but I gave him some slack last time and he didn't show up. Another day, post, class, I'd probably go back to him.

9 Imkeepnthisguy was given an interesting steer by Saftic last week. He rarely leaves, but did that time. He pulled first up and gunned at the leader, who was not really willing to release him, but finally did. To convince him to do that, he had to pace a 55.1 middle half, and he was clearly spent as soon as he made the lead, and looped right back by the one who let him go. In truth, he could have hung him, but it was easier to let him go and get him out of his hair, and go back around him, letting him back into anything that was on the rail. That made another contender have to go around him. It was a winning move. For this horse, that drive was a losing move. Post 9 this week, with a tougher bunch. No thanks. But, I'd say there is some room for value based on that last trip, and his likely no try effort this week. He will get to drop down, and carry hidden form. I'd want to see him brush home well this week and finish with pace, to go to him on the drop next time.

10 The Rev loses McNair to another because he draws bad and is hard to like even on a class drop. Another day maybe. Just a trip around here to further the fitness off the layoff angle.

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