Wednesday, February 24, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 25, 2016


1 California Rachel left out well last time, stayed in behind Perfect Road, who figured to go forward. However, he never did, began to back into her, while she had a hanger to her right and the horse in the 2 hole was also backing up. There was no way out until mid lane where Fillion had to zig then zag back to the rail while the pace was picking up and she settled for a going forward 4th. She isn't always that consistent to go forward off a trip like that, but these aren't tough or deep. I will call her to hopefully get in the 2 hole and have a shot to trot home the winner.
6 Donicus got a heads up steer by Green last time, and maybe he has learned to use a horses one move wiser overall. I could see him leaving a bit more this time and trying to get the top or making a retake if that becomes necessary. He is the one to beat on paper, but I will call him 2nd. These types don't hold top form for very long and he could be in even money territory here. 
8 Southwind Gizzel comes in off the shelf with a sharp last quarter in a going away win in the qualifier. However, she also has to move up from maidens to nw2 with a bad post, because she won 2 last year and made a bit of money. She is a tiny filly and I'm not sure she is up to these yet. I will watch her once. Dagfin usually seems in no hurry with his young ones.
7 A Rod Hall took off running last time, something he tried to do the start before but J Mac held him together. I suspect he tries to do that again, and brush him late under wraps, as he also did that time. That gets him 3rd or 4th, but not likely the win picture. That all  presumes that he doesn't just run anyway early and dig a big hole like last time.
3 E L Ima Diesel was entered for Flamboro but didn't get in, so they come here to keep him raced. Obviously, Flamboro looks like a better option at this stage to keep the train rolling. He has won two in a row, the first one first off the shelf daylighting them, the last on the front, even fractions most of the way under wraps against nothing that will ever see this track. He is a one speed type who seems to be getting his act together at 4, but hasn't shown the speed needed at this track. He does have issues with the turns at Flamboro, so he could be a bit better here. I want to see him show he can beat 2 minutes, which he has not yet. He is a long way off the speed Donicus and others show in here.
2 Rose Run Reanna comes in off a break in stride late and 3 weeks out. Blake's stock hasn't done well lately and he is streaky. I will pass on this one tonight.
4 What a Peach did little from the 10 hole last time, but draws better here. In any event, he has been a bit player in any race at this track. I will pass on him until he shows some desire to go after the leaders.
5 Perfect Road was going backwards 2 back then ran at the start last time. On his best day he can take a bunch like this, but he has very few of those. I will pass on him.


7 Lmc Nukular Stryke went a training mile at Flamboro last time off a sick scratch with far better than he can handle, but right back with these, less the winner who beat him last time, he has a big shot to take them all down. This could be a very gapped out field and that helps him avoid any road trouble if he takes back, or leave him room for a breather if he blasts out. Price could be the issue. I don't want less than 5-2 on this guy. I'd expect and hope for 7-2.
8 Man of Many Arts draws the outside, has been off 3 weeks and has burned win money many times this fall and winter. He will be a very big price, and while he is not easy to like, I have seen Gibson bring ones like this many cold winter nights and they turn it around for a start. I will tab him 2nd as a price option. Any of my top 3 are playable and I'd use them all in any pick exotic feature.
4 Sky Guy left out last time but tucked immediately. He stayed put until the turn for home, and at that point was trapped and racing for 2nd money as the long gone winner daylighted the field under wraps. He got that cheque and doesn't have to face him again this time. He has a fair shot to take all of these, if he uses his gate speed to get up closer and doesn't get gutted to keep that position and the flow goes forward this time. He looks better than the two likely faves and I will give him play on the expectation that 4-1 or higher value is there. It should be, and then some.
1 Stonehouse Petey left out hard last time but that left him hung. The cinch winner threw him a bone and let him clear and then retook and said goodbye to the field. This guy raced well, considering it was first time Montini off the claim, and he went fast enough to handle these most nights. However, he did let the 2nd place winner slip up inside him and pass him. That is a concern and being that I expect him to take a short price this time on the "second race tighter, second race new trainer" angle, I will take my chances he is short of whomever is the winner here. He is likely top 3, but not the winner.
2 Hp Black Shadow ran just as the gate sped away last time and disappeared. He had every chance the race before but got picked up then. He is one of those who finds a different way to lose every time, assuming that he is involved, which isn't always anyway. Another I will take my chances against on the overbet, underperformer angle.
6 Earthquake Madness shows nothing to suggest he is in the ballpark of even these hard to like foes.
3 Einhorn continues to leave, travel dangerously and lose drivers who don't want to be aboard when he does something really bad near the top and causes a wreck. In my opinion he should be on the judges list and not allowed to race until he is sorted out. In the meantime, drivers put him in the center of the track to keep him out of harms way and nobody wants to let him go and be behind him. He has 6 starts this year and zero dollars made.
5 Sports Vision was at the back last time, could not keep up, bearing in horribly in the last turn with no advancement. He is impossible to like, even on the Nixon angle.


4 Jagersro  is certainly the wildcard in this bunch. She showed speed and went with decent minor stakes types before being shut down. In her qualifier, she left out, but was gapping from the get go and walked home in a manner that would suggest a second qualifier to get her on the right track before facing racehorses. I frankly don't know what to expect, but I would think a soft rail ride and a brush late if that is in the cards to be the desired trip.  Could that pass all of these? It could. I have trouble even listing anything as the winner here, so its likely a non betting race for me and I'd want my top 5 all evenly in the hope that the longest of the 5 gets up and sweetens the pick 5.  
2 Fashion Star shows flashes of high speed, but also many breaks and when not breaking, gets away way back to keep him trotting. He might grow out of that, as many trotters do, and it could be tonight that he puts it together. It could also be in May. Your call. I will put him up for 3rd and I'd use him in the pick 5.
6 Jayport on Th Edge is sure to get play here, as everybody saw that he got pinned in on the turn and lost many lengths while the leader began to open up. Once free, he came on, got 2nd, and would have reeled in the winner in a few more strides. That was then. He is 0 for 14 now, and he is an excuse pit of broken pari-mutuel promises. I will pass on him here. He likely makes the ticket, but he isn't on my short price radar. I will wait for a better betting spot. He is also bearing in enough in the turns that it hurts him and that needs to be addressed or he is hard to play period.

1 Windsong Magic parked out a long way to make the top in her first try at this track, then tried to walk the 2nd quarter but was swooped and passed by another who trotted all she could to the turn and this one was beat by then. That leader stopped to a walk at the tote board and made this one look like she was coming back on. However, she trotted a back half herself of 1:00.2, which continues her slower back half racing style. If she tries to cut this, which is likely considering her driver loves the front, she probably gets picked up. She was also racky gaited in the last turn when she needed more speed to fend off the winner. If pushed, she very likely could jump it off. 
5 Dead Red Hitter came ready to play Monday night, swooped up in the 3rd quarter and blew by that leader, while opening up enough to safely hold off the only one who had a reasonable shot at him. That probably gets him big time play here, and while I cashed on him at 19-1, I wont be giving any of that back. I simply will not play a green trotter back on 2 days rest, and especially one with breaks all over his resume. Pass.
8 Une Duharas  stayed back and did little last time. I don't see any hope for this one at the A track and she is likely moved out of the barn very shortly. She isn't paying her way.
7 Murphy Paree left and stayed flat last time. That is the good news. On the other hand, she didn't improve her time and backed through a very weak field. I can't go near this one until she shows she can stay flat, leave a bit and not stop to a walk.
3 Stonebridge Peace  has trouble staying flat, and doesn't show much anyway. Can't go near this one.


1 Crown Isle likes to be on the front or the pocket. First up is not his trip, so he sat in the 3 hole when he was outleft and didn't move until the turn, and raced okay, just giving it up very late. Under a different trip scenario, one where he blasts out, protects the rail, and either lets Future Million go and retakes, or sits on his back this time, he is viable for the price. That price would have to be 9-2 or higher. He is very trip dependent and no sure thing even when he gets it.
4 Jac Spade avoids tougher ones that would give him a lot more trouble than these will.....Intended Style, Velocity Headlight, Chicago Hanover, One Warrawee, Just Henry..etc. Christoforou has won with this guy many times before, and knows how much he's got with him and when to move. He doesn't win much anymore, but he pops every now and then. This is the softest spot he can find this winter. Call for 2nd, but I easily could have reversed my top 2 picks.
3 Future Million got the trip he likes last time. He left to make the top, got the breather to the half, no challengers to the top of the stretch, so he went sensible fractions yet was picked up at the wire by the one who pocket sat on his back the entire way. A good overall effort. I'd expect exactly the same trip here, unless Crown Isle gets away good and wants the front with a retake. That wouldn't be terrible for this one if he fell into that trip.
5 Kablooie  was parked the mile from the 10 hole last time and backed up with that excuse. He has decent enough form and a better post here, so if he were to get away 4th or 5th and pick up a live helmet to follow, he has a fair shot.
6 Lost in Panslation got the dream trip last time. He got out fast, beating Crown Isle to the rail, then let the obvious leader go and he carried him to the tote board with no one outside him to make him do anything but wait for the one move to pick him off...which he did....barely. Based on his post position here, he wont get that trip and his shorter price this time means he is likely poor value. Pass.
8 Shiftyn Georgie is one I don't think we've seen before at this track. He arrives off a nice win for 5 at London, claimed by McKinnon and tackling tougher on the rise with the 8 hole. I want to see him once. He is hard to list on the win front at this stage.
2 Buckshot Austin left out last time, stayed in, got a shuffle and came on late for the smallest cheque. The top 4 were all together at the wire but he didn't reach them while the 3rd place finisher came from way back. He just doesn't do enough and I like others better. Pass.
7 Prince Adam did nothing last time to suggest he belongs in with this bunch. He is a big longshot to make the ticket. I'm sure his connections will be happy when Charlottetown starts up again.
9 Big Unit won 1 of 35 last year and draws the 9 hole here for a try at the big track. He was 2nd last time to one who won this class the last time he tried it. If he had drawn better I'd have given him a longshot chance. Spotting them 10 or more at the quarter is enough for me to discard him tonight. I will watch to see if he is legit if there happens to be a 2nd date.
10 Rolandale Buster had no pace last time, and drew the claim. Right back in for 8, but he draws the 10 hole. I can't touch him until he draws a post that will allow him to get involved earlier. Pass.


10 Wichita Lineman was Rocky in against Apollo Creed last time, and we didn't get the Hollywood ending. He took a run at that one, even getting to his wheel, but when it was time Randy just let the other one loose and this one got the worst of that, losing 2nd to another. He wont meet another one like that for a while, even if the 2 is a very nice horse and the 3 has tried stakes colts. I will call him to overcome the post and race back to the impressive effort he put out 2 back to break his maiden.
4 Goodmorningmister was solid last time, leaving for the 3 hole, following along and tipping out in the lane to beat my choice here right on the line. You cannot knock how he has progressed and showed he fits this class and track. Fillion sticks with him and takes him over Moreau's, who frankly is not an impressive racehorse.
2 Dreamfair Mesa took a lot more money last time than the program suggested he should, then floated out like Randy knew he could do what he wanted when he wanted to. He made a move to the lead, then cat and moused a challenger until just after the top of the stretch, then drew off to win with the only legit one pinned on the rail. He was also reluctant to pull first up and could have gotten pinned in, as well as on a line bearing in quite a bit into the last turn and turning for home. On paper, he is strictly the one to beat here, likely at a very short price again. I will go to two others, but he looks tough if he learns from that effort and they can get his head straight. He wont have it so easy when something more talented than Century Churchill comes at him.
6 Scary Harry got away 4th last time, went after the chalk leader after he got a big 2nd quarter breather, and faded at the end as a result. He is tactical and if he can leave like that again and find a helmet, he has a shot to make the ticket.
1 Cool Reward beat nw1 two back, and a sad lot they were. He ran first try with these,and now changes trainers, to a highly respected guy who knows how to right the ship. I don't like him at all in this spot, but I will watch to see if he steps him up.
3 Three Truths other than picking up Big Bang Boom when he went bust bust bust on the engine, this one has been nothing but rat city. Pass for me. He hasn't taken to the Moreau program.
8 Princesss Diamond got away near the back last time, didn't look pretty or like he was going to do anything on the last turn, but got it together in the lane and nabbed 2nd. He is not very sound, but he tries hard and the odd night he can get it done. Trevor goes to Puddy's one, and he gets Phil. I like others better. Overall, he meets tougher ones this time.
5 Rolling Rock left out, stayed in and sat third, had no room much of the way, found a seam and paced home okay, even, but was outpaced by others. I will pass on him again. He just isn't doing enough.
7 St Lads Charger was no factor in the Count B final, nor the leg before that. As with many of Puddy's, they go good for a few starts then fall off the planet sharply. Based on his breeding, this one will be aimed at the Grassroots program in a couple of months, assuming he is still walking. Pass for me here.
9 Think Again wont get anywhere near the top with these from this post. Without that advantage, the big longshot he was anyway makes him a total toss.

This is a tough race to rate. I hate most of the ones who will be the top 4 faves, and the only longshots I can see are impossible to back. So, I go with the non performing ones who occasionally come back to the form they have shown from time to time. Its a stab kind of play. I'd rather lose on them than play favorites I don't like at all or longshots I dont see having any chance.

3 Flexceptional is hard to like on her mid pack form, but one of these nights she is going to blast out of there, wire them or sit a two hole and pop in the lane. I will take my chances that will be tonight. Not confident, but in my view, she looks just as viable as the likely 3 faves in here, with a much better price to risk ratio attached.
5 Harleigh Ryder is worth taking a risk on as a shipper who shows times that are within reach when you allow for the track variant and the weather lately. Those are very loose standards to make a claim like that. Jody and Laver teamed up with Muscle Time to score a bombs away upset, and while this one appears nothing like that one, its possible.
9 Elmo Rockbottom has drawn badly lately at Flamboro, and does so again here. He has won at this track a few times, and mostly it was a big price. I'd give him a minor shot to do that here again.
4 Crowningcrest was a good 2nd to Domitian Hall on his return to this track and Kerwood's barn. He has a shot, but as the likely 2-1 favorite, I have to look elsewhere. I'd have to use him in the pick 4, but I can't justify taking that kind of win price on this one. He doesn't hold soundness very long when he is forced to go faster based on previous history.
7 Townline Momma stayed flat last time, but got the parking ticket and tired. She is reclassified tonight to have a shot, but I don't think its enough. Minor shot if she wakes up, behaves and gets the trip. Even if all that happens, she still has to win.
6 Magical Pumpkin went to the front last time, cut the entire mile, but was wonky and lame the whole way, especially in that last turn. She appears on her last legs and is hard to back with the short price she probably brings in with this sorry lot. Lasix seemed to help her stay at it towards the end, and with many playing the 2nd time Lasix angle, I will play against her. She could easily jump it off this time at some point.
8 Boot Scootin Loral  was claimed back by team Wray, and while there is some form to suggest he can fit in with these, he is a 7yo with a mark of 2:02. Its not enough for me to think he can take these down from the 8 hole.
1 Herecomesthebride has not responded to Moreau's program and I don't see any hope. Pass.
2 See R Chin Win got daylighted by Freddie then was jacked up over her head. Still don't like her one bit. She is a rat.
10 Jimoris Tigeress best bet on the card to not get a cheque tonight.


6 I C Your Shadow left out well  last time, made a move for the top and was travelling well. She let the favorite go, who backed down the tempo and this one got doubled up for just a few steps,  which is enough for her to  interfere and take off running.  Otherwise, she was very live and looked to take a shot at  the winner. I can forgive her for that and  go  back to her here,  even knowing she is an excuse pit of torn tickets type who is in serious futility territory. She does have high speed at times and if the price is right, I will take a shot with her here. Massey takes over and J. Mac ditches her, and Saftic got days again. If Massey can manage Whiteglance and get her across, he can handle this one.
3 Dorabella missed last week, and is the type that leaves, sits, and moves up the rail when others attempt and backpeddle. In a race like this, that gives her a shot to make the ticket, and a longshot chance at coming up the rail to win.
7 Jens Credit left out again last  time, had trouble clearing but got there,  then was looped twice  and seemed  okay with that as she wasn't grabby or racey in the 3 hole. She was run into on the last turn,  but she didn't seem  to be doing much anyway and hung  in  the lane,  almost losing 2nd.  She is likely to keep taking shares, but she has to show more to get my win ticket.
1 Docs Diva was handled carefully again getting away, settled in, then tipped 3 wide to the half to clear a first up hanger going backwards. She did make that lead, but was very steppy again in that last turn, and suspect coming to the wire. She is like her siblings,  in that she isn't pretty out there, but iron tough and tries hard. Another short price is likely here again, and I can't play her as is. When the long price comes, if she is still a maiden, I'd think about her.
8 Bettys Bay  in her return start at 3, she was floated out near the back, started up at the half, made nice progress, with a fast last quarter, but was running in the entire way and that type of thing will cost her if she is near the winner. I will pass on her this time and wait to see if that is a habit.
4 Zealous Seelster stayed mid pack last  time and was an okay 4th.  She is a bit player at this track, as she just doesn't finish like an A track horse. Solid Grand River type when they open with the banked turns if she doesn't get that win and have to face tougher. I will watch her for that a few months down the road. She has nice tactical speed that would be more valuable at a B track.
2 Bad At Redhot has been sold since her last race, as she doesn't look like an A track horse and Hudon doesn't keep those around. I don't see anything to suggest the new connections will get any more out of her. Very nice B track maiden if she shows up at London in March.
5 Inexplicable Ruby went around again last time but did little. I will  pass on her unless I see her show she has two solid moves. At this stage,  she has one medium one.
9 Orch Vicky was tricky to  steer last time and borderline dangerous. Holliday steered  her out into the middle of the track and then followed along once she was in safer waters.  Post 9 tonight, and she will have to do a lot more anyway. Pass for now.
10 Miss Mikela D post 10 and miles over her head. No thanks.


10 Flaherty was very impressive first off the shelf, and first for Budd. He zoomed out of there, let the favorite go, followed him nose to helmet right to the wire, but had no room and just went along for a solid 2nd.  Yes, post 10 is a challenge, but as maidens go, this is a soft bunch and I wouldn't be surprised if he blasts out of there this time and tries to take them all the way. If he does and the 1 wants to cut it and give him cover, even better. Top call, and the price should be there because of the post and the fondness for the 1. The way he travelled in that race, he looks to be a very good one and could do serious damage in the Grassroots this year.
5 Fancourt first time starting Big Jim colt out of the solid mare Catch A Wish, who was impressive in his qualifier and retains Fillion. My 2nd choice. But he is possible right out of the box.
6 Classic News went an even mile last time, following along and pacing in 56, which was much faster than he has seen yet to that point. I think he might be up to these in a couple of starts, and I will watch for his progression. He isn't impossible here if he steps up right away, the 10 gets a bad trip and the 1 coughs it up again.
8 Windsun Falls dropped out of the Count B, but didn't do much last time. Brethour has to be respected and I keep my eye on this guy to pop at some point at long odds. I like others tonight so I feel safe leaving him off. If he turns tonight, I will get beat. 
1 Mohegan Blue Chip  left hard last time, got the top, cut the entire mile and even got a breather in the 2nd quarter. None of that was enough when he was challenged by the winner, who passed him  easily, and the other two beside him either did or were about to. He has no fight whatsoever when he is headed. Another short or shorter price, I will pass.  
9 Silver Bullet was first up last time and backed away. Post 9 this time. Back of the bus and a shot to come late for 4th.
4 Charlie Badlands missed last week and was just okay before that. I like others better. Ticket maybe. Can't see him winning this.
7 Century Churchill moved 2nd over but lost his cover last time, kept at it and actually seemed to get by the leader, who was just toying with him and used him as a trap for the 2 hole rider. I can't touch this one as he appears. He probably will get it done when Georgian or Kawartha opens, and probably for a different trainer.
2 Ganacus Seelster left out last time, was forced to take a 2 hole, which became a 3 hole. He had every chance to go forward late and do better, but he didn't. Pass for me. He doesn't look like any kind of stock to this stage.
3 Fleetwould Mach is impossible to like off the program and replays. He looks to be 15 lengths out of this most of the way. He will have to justify the reason he keeps coming back.


2 Ok Gladiator was wiped out last week by a horse cutting to the rail with no room. He was claimed by Carmen out of that one and gets put in this spot, which isn't any tougher than those were, and he does very well with Mach Three's who just aren't doing enough with other trainers. This is the type he can turn right off the bat.
3 Regal Fame daylighted a field 3 weeks ago in a lifetime best and comes back here off the shelf. That would suggest he came up sick and needed a week off,  then a training mile to get him fit. He is a big player here, but I will call him 2nd in the upset.
5 Real Raye was claimed for 5 three back,  but has not gone forward. He has a reasonably fast mark last year at KD, and longshot potential in here. I went to others, but he is the type this outfit turns at some point.
4 Rock the Dream takes a serious drop in class here, but he has tried these before and come up short. He doesn't travel well and isn't the smartest cat in the alley either. All that being said, he does have speed and Joe C is a cagey guy who finds ways to win with this type of horse.
1 Jenkins Creek went his usual mile last time, which wasn't quite good enough to make the ticket. He is the bit player type and there are a couple in here at least who will probably keep him to that title.
6 Regally Magnified bagged 2 in a row at the B's with these types, but got the parking ticket from post 3 last time at London. He has upset potential, but has not proven he has the high speed the top 2 have shown already many times. I will pass here.
8 Jetster changed hands and came here looking to step up. He didn't. If he was ever going to nab 2nd money, it was last time. He didn't. No thanks from an 8 hole start.
7 Jet Black Cadillac shows me nothing to suggest I shouldn't toss him. So, I did.

RACE 10 

7 Holiday Romance blasted out from  the middle of the gate last time, getting to the quarter first in 26.4. She yielded to a leader who took her the rest of the way, but she was spent just before the tote board and passed by them all when the wire came. She is only 3 and that was the fastest she has even been. Now back in with claimers, she is a viable longshot if she can leave enough to get midpack and save that brush for the end. I could see her in a field with pacers that have Swiss Cheese holes all over them.
4 Twin B Breezeway left out last time, sat as expected,  found late room and got 2nd. A good result and the type of thing she can do off the right trip. I'm sure Fillion will try to get the same one again. She is possible as you can make a case for many of these,  and just as good a case why you should go to bed after the 9th and not play with these Flamboro rats disguised at WEG racehorses.
3 Bella Santanna was claimed for 5 last time as she wired them  at London. Ellis has a sharp claiming eye for these types,  and last year at 3 she won in 56 and change at Grand River. She has to be respected on the quick turn. Shot.
5 Stonebridge Suntan Improved a bit last time. She left out from the 10 hole and kept close tabs the entire way,  going a bit faster than she had been. It was in this class, and she seems to be finding a fit. I'm not ready to send her love notes just yet, but she is on my radar now. Watch for next time. She needs to show now she can work for it. The winner of this race probably goes 55 and change. Based on her record last year at Hanover, that is probably in her wheelhouse  if she is coming back to form. Tab for later.
10 Lady Santana took the long way around last time, and had to go it first over from the half at the leaders wheel. That left her soft for a couple of others. Post 10 here, she is up against it. I will pass this time.
6 Lucky Cocktail got second in this class the last time she was here, and was already double entered at Flamboro, where she drew the rail, left out and used turn advantage to hold the lead, went a soft half and then gunned the 3rd quarter and paced enough in the lane to hold off the pocket sitter. A  true old school Flamboro type win in the deep freeze of the winter. She comes back here and she certainly fits, but there are a few in here who can go with her.
1 Midnight Mayhem drops out of conditions to the bottom claimer looking to make some money. Although Hebert brings in a lot of longshots,  I can't play this one. She has to do more, even with these. Pass.
2 Blushing Promise turned her form last time and got 3rd in a blanket of 3 of them. She isn't always that good and I backed her that night but will go to others here.
8 Art U Coming was galloping well  off the gate last time and never got in  touch with the field.That is the second time  in 4 starts she has done that, and otherwise starts very slowly anyway.  She is a 6yo with a mark of 2:00.1 over KD at 5.  Its hard to see why they would even bring her here when she should be in a 5  claimer non winners at Flamboro.
9 Jinglewriter got away poorly and closed with the pack. Post 9 is an issue for one who doesn't start well.  I can't see her spotting these 15 or more and making all that up. Treen is a tricky guy in terms of form of his. I leave her off, but I am watching for a small sign that can turn into a big price in March.

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