Friday, February 19, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 19, 2016


5 Jordies Hope was on the front last week, which was not the place to be when the card was looked at in retrospect. Its the only way she races well, so the bias was dead against her. Cross that line out, and she is certainly a play here, and probably much bigger odds due to that suspect line. I'd give her a shot for the price.
2 Katies Beach was a good 2nd best last time to a mare who tripped out. That is 2 good results in her last three starts at very big odds. The odds will come down here, but still be in the 8-1 or so range. I can take a shot with her in that range. Its a wide open dash and she is one of a few who could get it done.
8 Kiss Me or Not takes the drop, and needs to. These are more her people, but unlike her last time dropping for the pop, this bunch comes up deeper and with the post she has, not as likely to go all the way with these. I will go elsewhere. If she races okay and comes right back with these and draws middle of the car or inside it, I'd play her then.
4 Dazzle N Delight has stepped it up the last few weeks, and last week she raced right onto a bias that favored the trip she got. Full credit to her though. She made the most of it. She does move up and I think she is still iffy to take them all if the last quarter isn't as slow as last time. Bit player with a shot to prove me wrong if she can keep it going.
3 Shez a Gold Mine beat nw2 types last time but now faces older, seasoned mares who can go a lot more than she can currently. I have to see her compete with those once to see if she is up to that. My impression is that she isn't yet, but will develop into that in a month or two. Pass for tonight.
4 Dazzle N Delight has stepped it up the last few weeks, and last week she raced right onto a bias that favored the trip she got. Full credit to her though. She made the most of it. She does move up and I think she is still iffy to take them all if the last quarter isn't as slow as last time. Bit player with a shot to prove me wrong if she can keep it going.
10 Rock Her World has been off many months now, draws the 10 hole off so so qualifiers and had serious steering issues before even when she was winning. I will watch to see if Moreau can fix the issues Alagna never did. This isn't a good spot for her even if he has, but a good spot will arrive and she will be shorter priced then. I want to know what she offers when that comes.
9 Dilly Dali post 9 at this level really hurts one like this who likes the front and needs a breather. Pass.
7 P L Hurricane got the win at the bottom, but those were very soft, even by that classes standards.  She makes a 3 class jump back up, and I wouldn't even consider her with this bunch. If she drops back down two more classes, and races okay here, she is playable then with a decent post.
1 True Reflection seems to need a perfect trip at the very bottom class to even have a shot at winning,  which she still doesn't do much. I can't list her to win. She is 4 weeks out now with a scratch sick. That's enough for me.  Toss.
6 J High has two wins at the bottom on the page, and a trip around finish last time, which was 5 weeks ago. She would be hard to take tonight back in at the bottom.  No shot whatsoever.

 RACE 26 Greystone Ladylike has very good form, if you consider she was chasing mares she can't handle and takes that form to ones she can. This is no cakewalk for her, but even at favorite odds, she is the play. However, if she was to fall into the 3-5 category, I'd have to pass. Even money is still poor value, but possibly fair. She just has a class and form edge over these and post 6 is the perfect spot at this track to leave hard, which is likely what she is going to do here. Top call.
4 Mischieviousgirls comes in off two bad posts and she didn't do much pacing last week. I will hunch play her for 2nd hoping the better post gets her a closer start and she can fish out one of the faves to cover her up and tow her into a favorable top of the stretch position to strike. She has to be better. For sure.
1 Regally Ready turned it around last time to finish a solid 2nd, racing with the bias of late closers that night. She is certainly in the mix with a shot. I like a couple of others better.
2 Back Yard Baby moves up but is very good right now. These are in her wheelhouse, but being off 3 weeks is a concern. I will list her 4th only because of the slight move up and the stale date. In a game of close finishes, that could be enough for her to finish close but no cigar.
7 Dazzling Rockette closed late for a decent share last time. That is what she likes to do, and it works out well for her owners. Winning at this level is another thing. She doesn't do much of that. One level down, she is a lot more viable.
5 Total Lee is one of those who finds multiple ways to lose with an excuse that makes you keep going back to her. She will win one eventually, and unless its at big odds,  I wont have her. Like tonight. But the big odds wont be there. She can beat me.
3 Barockey won 3 levels lower off a soft trip when she split horses late. Her last 3 with these have resulted in being non factors when they hit the tote board. No thanks.
8 Miss Coco Luck didnt last well last time and she appears over her head at this level. She will likely drop back down soon and could be a play then. She is a very trip and class dependent mare. Both of those variables go against her here.


6 Gotti  Is my top play here. With the gate speed he shows, he should get the 2 hole ride behind the chalk, and he was closing at him last week. He appears to need that one to fail on some level, but I see that as possible enough. He could go off 4th fave and possibly in the 10-1 range. I think that is good playable value.
8 War N Munn the obvious heavy fave. He daylighted them first out for Carmen, made a mistake last time but Drury deftly snatched him up and got him back on the front, although tiring and bearing out late, still opening up. He looks like he goes off 2-5 or less. I will take that action. He isn't rock solid yet in my view and the finals of these local stakes have a way of beating these types.
9 St Lads Charger his last line plus post 9 are enough for me to pass on him here. However, if the fave bombs, and the next two logical board plays perform as I expect, he isn't out of the question to pick up 2nd or 3rd.
1 Three Truths is one that Moreau can't get sorted out. If he isn't running in horribly, he is off stride, or just hanging when he has a shot. His bag of excuses has become too large for me.
5 Big Bang Boom goes back to Virdy as Carmen can't get him to finish. As the Big Jim's race, that is a very common trait, even in the ones who have very high speed for a piece, like this one does. They can really pace until the air comes out of the tires mid lane...or sooner. I will call him  to miss the ticket altogether. He is another who could burn a lot of fave money at the B's in the Grassroots this year.
3 The Loan Ranger doesn't do enough for me to go to him. He will be interesting to watch when the Grassroots start up. He has some go, but also lots of issues which means he can be a play both ways at those B tracks. He could be a bomb longshot one week, and a bad fave the next. For now, he is overmatched and his odds will reflect that.
7 New Standard doesn't look up to this bunch at this stage. He is about 3 months ahead of himself and should have stuck to maidens.
2 Podge I wont even bother. If he was mine, I wouldn't even race him in this spot.  It's outright foolish.
4 Spaniard missed last week. Still a maiden facing proven winners. Pass.


1 St Lads Penny Lane lands in a good spot to take these down. They are the types she handles when class meets trip meets form. Top to bottom these are much softer than what she faced last time, and she was pretty close to the ones that beat her then. She needs to get away 5th or 6th, not 8th or 9th. Saftic knows that and will try to gas her out a shade to hold position. I doubt he will be in a hole giving mood if that means he ends up 3rd over instead of 2nd over. She is my top call.
6 Onyourmarknatava is an extremely slow starter who digs herself a huge hole that isn't easy to overcome. I will toss her on for 2nd money with a longshot chance in this group where many can be figured to not perform. She needs a hot pace and very live flow to get her in position. She has bombed away before.
2 Mappos Moenhay  has been very good in two starts for Moreau, and he keeps her at the level she can excel. She needs to do a shade better on the end of the mile at this level than she has been doing. For that reason, I list her 3rd. She wouldn't shock me, but with Moreau and Fillion engaged, the price wont be right. Pick 4 must.
4 Wildcat Magic is a very low percentage winner who would be a lot more dangerous one level down. She gets enough decent slices that she can't go there yet. She just doesn't do enough to attract me to list her on the ticket. I'd leave her off the pick 4 and take my chances.
3 Whistys Paradise was dog lame parading last time, looked like she was in big trouble on the last turn, but once she hits the straightaway,  she sucks it up and tries hard.  She is one tough bird, but she isn't meeting mediocre claiming types here. Her grit aren't enough to take these, and whatever bugs her has got to be adding up. Toughness will only get you so far. I will play elsewhere.
5 Machet Rocket got the win at the bottom. She hung around last time. I'm not sold she can beat all of these even off another soft trip like last time.  She lacks a second winning move at this level at this stage of her career. Pass.
7 Dianna Santanna  off a long time, and she generally needs a few to get going. Watching.
8 Mary Celeste still not the right spot for this mare. A drop back down might lead me to her.
9 Neversaidiwassweet is in very deep with this mixed bunch who have a huge class edge and she draws bad.
10 Shellyssilvermoon total toss on form, past performance and post.


6 Mattjestic Tempo made an unusual break last week and took herself out of it. I can give her a pass on that. Otherwise, she has been in the mix but short of the win since she came off the shelf. If she had produced last week, she would be the clear 3-1 second choice in here. Because she bombed out and has not won period this year, she presents likely 6-1 or higher value. I will take that risk on. I can't find anything other than the fave to like, so I will rest on her to get me there.
8 Cracklin Rosie skipped last week because of the cold weather,  and while she is certainly the logical top dog in here, she isn't bulletproof. I will call her 2nd and play another on reversal of form and the big price that is coming this week on that one.
4 Bad As Leader was solid last week for the win, aided by favorable fractions. Another trip up near the front gives her a shot. I like 2 others better, but she shows flashes of ability on their level.
1 Im in Luv made a bold move at the leader last time but flattened out late. However she paced a big back half on her own off the shelf, and if she can build off that,  she could make the ticket.
2 Windsun Glory simply didn't race well last week. She was put in the perfect spot, began to gap, then closed that gap and was pulled out before she got trapped in, but showed no desire to even try and pass that one. The pace went against her getting by that one, but she didn't even put up a fight. She had that trait in her qualifier and seems to need a buried trip anyway. She makes a great racetrack appearance and has some speed, but her class is in question. I will continue to watch her, but I don't like her at all in this spot. Currently, I am off her bandwagon.
3 Party in Rome doesnt look up to at least the top half of this field. I will wait to see how she stacks up with Grassroots fillies when she gets there.
5 Sandy De Vie got the maiden win. But didn't look great getting to that point and has not kept up with these. Toss. I'm not sure she isn't in for a very long stay at nw2.
7 Arizona Seelster had nothing last week and generally just doesn't put out. Total toss for me.


5 Vics Royal Lady was done in by the post last time. No problem this time. Straight to the front, yield and retake if that is necessary, and then see ya later. Best bet on the program if she comes with 7-5 or higher odds. She is in top form and has held it for a while now.
3 Aspen California after seeing this one back up near the front a few back and hang first up last time, its easy to see why A Mac saves her for the one big move. Again, as I said last week, that leaves her 2nd a lot more than winning. I will call her for that, again.
6 Rocky De Vie comes back for a 3rd try with Holland. He is a tricky one. Both the horse, who seems spotty but occasionally talented, and Holland, who will race a horse multiple times with no result and jam them right back in and they pop at huge odds like Think Again and others have. Its tough to find viable ones in here. I will list him 3rd with a shot to take it all down on that angle only.
10 Federal draws poorly and that really hurts him. I dont see enough talent to overcome that deficit against my top 2. I will wait another day on this one.
2 Tymal Wizard is a crazy inconsistent type who can bomb away at long odds and has a few times. But otherwise, he reverts right back to being a poor performer. I will pass on him here after his last which was poor in a poor field.
4 I Jasmin showed up and hung in for 2nd last time. She is another who is a real in and outer. I like to play her at very long odds and last weeks effort shortens her up this week. Pass, but she isn't impossible. There is some talent there.
1 Luau Hanover still doesn't travel well, and even back on the drop to this class, she had trouble with them too. I just don't like her and unless he sorts out that issue, she is a no play for me. Trotters are variable. Maybe he will find the issue.  I will watch for that. Haven't seen it yet.
7 Candida is a 6yo mare with 2 lifetime wins and no cheque in this class in the last 3, yet has made 100k lifetime. Nuff said.
8 Eldorado of Gold keeps taking chalk money for a reason I can't figure. Pass even as the odds float up this time. He is just a non performer from what I can see.
9 Townline Momma came here and won a couple with good recent form, then starting making consistent breaks. She daylighted a weak bunch in the qualifier but still  stopped coming home. Pass from this post. Lets see her get around and not be held together with glue by Massey's hands. 


9 Rock N Roll Xample gets a 2nd crack at these and  I will call  her for the upset. They are somewhat the same as the last bunch, but one rung down and just a shade softer top to bottom. She blasted out last time and clearly quickly. Then she let one go, who let another go and she was sitting 5th at the half with the first up mare right beside her going nowhere, blocking the flow, and then she was going to follow the one she let go, but ducked back in and  lost momentum. She had some pace in the lane but was picked up by others who have come back to win or race very well. I would think that her speed is saved for a covered flow trip this time and if so, that could land her in the top spot. I'd want close to the ML, which is 8-1, but would except a shade less.
3 Lights Go Out drops down from where she won last, and she fired out of there last time and stayed for 3rd after a second move. When she is good, she is as good as any of these and her improved versatility has made her easier to play this year. I think the 8 is too much for her, but if not, she is likely the one.
5 Rubis Prescott isn't out of the question here, as she is as good as any of these on her best day,  which hasn't been lately but she has showed signs she might be gradually coming around. Her leaving ability is a plus in a race where those on the front look legit to keep going a long way and allow her to pop out late with some degree of room. I could see her and certainly would have to use her in the pick 4. Dropping back down one level is a big plus for a mare who is on the fringes like her.
7 Oceanview Bindi moves up here off a good effort from a bad post. I will play others, but she isn't a toss by any means. I doubt she has enough to beat them all.
1 Wildcat Beauty jumps up two classes when she is just barely contending with much less.This field is too deep to think she makes the ticket. Another day in a better spot...maybe.
6 A Plus sat in last time, popped out midlane and took a much weaker bunch than she meets here. I am still not on her fan club list. She will have to show me something I don't see.
2 Docs Hollywood is settling in as a class mover who will do okay at the bottom and possibly the next rung up. This class is two up from that and she meets a few who are dropping with decent form. Pass for now.
8 Your My Secret is gravely over her head here but needs one more line off her card and she can move down a bit. I will wait for that and watch her this time to see how she travels. She isn't the smoothest pacer and doesn't do it willingly without some encouragement. She has to be 100% right and classified to be viable. Not in this spot.


2 Pretty Boy was claimed by Johnson off noted trotting guru Walker, and at least he stayed flat last time. He has a record of 56.2 over this track, and if Johnson can make him go, and he can keep him trotting, that is enough angle to hang my hat on in a race where it is very difficult to like anything. Its a dart throwing stab in the dark type of play.
3 Silverhill Volo daylighted a trotter who was a decent stakes horse at 2, came right out and won his first and was a good 2nd next time out. That was the first effort for Carmen, as he didn't perform for Moreau. Perhaps Carmen has whatever this one needs. I'm willing to take that shot in a race where you have to take risks on spotty performers. He has some ability and nobody turns a bad performer like Carmen can consistently these days. Shot if he trots.
5 Adversity I will list for 3rd on the attrition angle in this tilt. He gets Pers expertise and Moreau's skill set to hopefully turn him around like he did briefly before when they tried that angle. They have to try something. He also gets Fillion, and that upgrade alone has to be worth 3 or 4 lengths. Another with a shot. I'd need all 3 top choices and hope I get one of them. It could be any of them, but I list them in order of what I perceive as value. I am using the highest percentage trainers all trying to turn low percentage performers. I only need one to get it right this time.
1 Shoot the Thrill was bought by Aaron with the idea Cody could gas him up with the high octane milkshake and steal another purse. That plan is dead now and he gets to try it with Gallucci, who wont be deploying that shady behavior, so, its anyone's guess how this one will perform. Gallucci is more than competent, but this horse has obvious issues that made him only an 8k purchase. He won 1 of 23 last year, and otherwise has not done much than run and get on the list. His decent qualifier, in which you can get away with a lot of things you can't in a race for money, will draw tote action and inflate others. I will go to them. Pass for me.
4 Hetties Commander simply cannot leave a step with these types and has limited powers of recovery. He is just too hard to justify even when you are looking to do that in a race like this. I have to go elsewhere.
9 Thankyoukessel goes 2nd off the shelf from post 9 off a weak effort for one who doesn't win much and was pegged at short odds last time. He isn't the soundest either. I have to pass. He might come around, but I need to see something positive.
6 Jetpedia I watch Pompano a bit here and there, and I happened to catch this one every time he raced there.  And he was awful, much like he was all last year at WEG. Unless I see some change in that, I wouldn't play him in a straight 8 claimer. He just has not panned out from the ability he showed at 2, as some don't. Oh, and he is 6 weeks out of the box. If WEG had any morals, they would insist he qualifies first. If he comes out and wins in 54 off those lines, it will look bad with no form to suggest that reversal.
8 Hidden Identity has seemed to lose a few steps over the last year, and he wasn't that gritty or classy at that point anyway. Post 8 with Pat, he is hunting for a soft trip and a small cheque.
10 Gliding Boy post 10 off those lines makes it impossible to touch this one, even in a race where I am looking to cut a lot of slack to anything that can  be justifiable.
7 Muscle Girl  in terms of no shot types, she is 1-9 to not win this race. And she would be 1-999 if you could give out those odds.


1 Our Hot Majorette passed the class test last time and kept up to the best this track has. Now she has to work for it a bit and not stay glued to the pylons. There are plenty of leavers in here, so she is going to have to rough it. I will play her on top with the idea that the 2 takes a lot of play, the 3 also enough that I get 5-1 on her. That is fair enough for me to go to her. She will have to do more but I think she is up to it.
2 Ms Mac N Cheese is clearly the boss of this bunch as it shows up this week, sans a few that give her a hard time for the big prize. That doesn't mean she can't go down. I will call her 2nd in the upset and go with one who has one under her belt and didn't get beat much last time by her. She is the one to beat. Clearly. But beatable.
3 Waasmula goes back up the ladder, brimming with confidence on a big score, fit, and in good form. When she is good, she is very very good. And she is raced like she is the best. I have never had any luck with her no matter when I try. I will list her 3rd, but I can't deny she looks very dangerous in this spot tonight.
6 Kayla Grace moves up while very sharp, the best she has ever been from what I can see. This is a big acid test for her. I will call her bit player this time. She isn't impossible though.
4 Witch Dali  has missed 3 weeks now and faces a much tougher bunch than I think she can handle even if she was on regular rotation. I don't like her in this spot for both of those reasons.
5 Aniston Seelster still doesn't show me that she is not a few months from being up to the speed and grit needed to handle these types. I will  watch for signs she is closer to that level. Not yet in my view.
7 Doctor Terror is in very deep with her current form and the class types she meets here.  I can't see her being close.


I liked Beyonces Rockin in this spot, but she is out. What is left, I can't sort nor do I want to even try. Its just wishful thinking there is form to play with here. So, I will give you my top 4 based on strict data that spits out picks for me.

9 Aintsheasweetie top call. Hard to like, but data tells me to like her.
5 Call It Courage data tells me the drop will be enough for her to get the trip and come back on. Shot.
2 Peppermint Patti a longshot with a driver who can make rats like this look good like he did last night with an old classy veteran on hard times.
Any one of those 3 would be great if they came in for the last leg of the pick 4.

No comments:

Post a Comment