Monday, February 15, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 15, 2016


5 Tricky Nick ships in off a break, but otherwise good form for Norm Parker, who is a very good trainer. He needs to be 1st or 2nd to stamp himself a ticket in the final. I will play that he behaves and handles this soft split.
3 Love Hunter backed away badly last time for no reason. He seems to have some issue that causes him to do that from time to time. Probably he ties up. He comes right back so, I expect that issue was addressed. Otherwise, he has a big edge on these. Parking 3 high in a 27 second first quarter didn't help either. He can avoid that here as well. I play for the turnaround.
7 Grand Premiere  made a costly break last time, but young trotters do that. Otherwise, he has been fairly solid and J Mac has done well with him. I rate him 3rd, but all 3 have a shot at a fair price. Its kind of wide open.
6 Demand an Answer seems very steady, and is obviously a player in here, like many, but he is likely to take the most money, and I wouldn't play any fave in here. He looks beatable enough to go against. Fillion likely drives the price down even more.
8 Fleet Bumblebee draws post 8, gets Massey, and appears to have 57 and change speed, which is about 4 or 5 lengths off the winner of this race, whoever that is. Not him.
4 Five Below was out fast last time but was behind a stopper and lost any chance. He did come back on and that is a plus. Phil takes over as Jody is away. That is a big negative for a horse who is tricky at the best of times. I will pass this time.
1 Notrouble Dechafra behaved last time and showed the type of talent he has when he does. He still got blitzed by the winner and he is hard to play back on the shorter price this time and short time between races. Pass.
2 Better to Be Lucky was backpeddling from the half to the wire last time, with his own back half in 1:01.3. No thanks.


2 In Secret  has reached the pinnacle of what he showed was there from the get go. He did it gradually and fits nicely with this bunch. Can he double up, at the shorter price this time? Yes. I think he can. He needs to be out a shade closer this time. Short field, that shouldn't be a problem. Top call.
5 Fearless Man seemed to be the winner last week when he beat off Zeus, but he had broken equipment and couldn't be driven all out. That cost him a neck loss. He is likely right there again.
3 Zeus Lightning took a good run at the leader last time but couldn't get past him and another beat them both. He is sharp but he has trouble beating most of these when they are at their best. Minor share for him.
1 Etruscan Hanover  has come on lately to show more of what we all know is there when he is right and behaves. However, post 1 tonight is tricky for him, and for the best of them its not easy to keep winning week in, week out at this level. I go elsewhere. I will take my chances that he is bad Etruscan tonight.
6 Charlie Is a Joker doesn't do enough with these to suggest he can beat them all. I'm looking for a price here, but he isn't it.
4 Windsun Revenge beat these before he got sick. He used two qualifiers to get ready, but I still think he needs one and Randy will race him accordingly.


4 Angels Kid was 2nd best to Hillsonator last time, but that was a nice first effort at this track for one with a pretty decent record of late. If they fail, he could be there to move forward. Top call at a big price.
5 Muscles All Over was 2nd to Hillsonator 2 back and took a run at the lead last time but flattened out. He shows flashes. Another option if the two faves battle and run each other down. He needs to be saved to be better.
6 All B Over was 2nd to Musical Rhythm last time at boxcar odds. He seems very steady and shows flashes of speed if the trip works out. Another option to use if you think the top 2 kill each other off. Which I do.
7 Hillsonator can blast out of there like few young trotters can and I expect no different here. That means he has to fend off Musical Rhythm when he comes at him down the backside. The jury is out as to how he responds to that.
3 Musical Rhythm will likely meet the acid test tonight in that he wont get that soft 2nd quarter he has been receiving lately. I think long term he is going to be a very nice horse, but until he disposes of a legit challenger and then fends off the rest, I will take my chances against him. When he comes to Hillsonator, he will meet resistance. Something else will be on his back and something will be in the pocket. That could be the longshot winner.
2 Amityville Lindy comes off two breaks and even when he doesn't, he is choppy the whole way. That isn't the type of form that beats legit nice trotters like he faces here.
1 Country Prophet is ditched by another driver, and that speaks volumes to his chances at this level. No thanks. He should be in a cheap claimer.


4 Woggy Rocks was taken back by Isaac, who moves him up. I cant see any reason he doesn't handle these as he currently is. He gets better every week and reminds me of Vegas Rocks when he started to improve. Best bet of the night. I want 5-2 for that statement to be accurate.
5 Twin B Wrangler closed up nicely for 2nd last time, but has been more on the fringes with these. I think he has a shot at 2nd or 3rd here if he deploys the same type of trip strategy.
6 Crafty Master always looks like he has pace until he hits that last turn and has to be steadied. Then paces well again in the lane. He is possible on the chance that doesn't hurt him enough this time.
9 Uf Bettors Hanover takes the high tag and gets the 8 hole for his trouble. If they battle, he will be coming. I'm not sure he gets all the way there around a lot of traffic.
7 Topcornerterror lucked out last time and found the seam he likes to score the bomb upset. He isn't always so lucky and when that is the case,  he is a non trying bit player.
8 Idole Duharas is likely to be sent right out of there this time and have to deal  with One Warrawee and others. That hurts his chances to last past the tote board. He will be a short price as his form is good in this class. I went elsewhere on the likely tough trip scenario.
1 Rockabella moves up with the sharp one who beat him last time. He looks more like one of those than one of these. Sharp but he doesn't look like a winner in this bunch.

3 One Warrawee can leave like a bat out of hell, but he is bat shit crazy in the 2 hole and wont sit in, or do it willingly. Zeron is the type that wont like a hard puller like this on a cold night. He is likely to just send him, and if that was a good strategy, Jody would have tried it already. If Fuller puts him back in for 15 and Galucci takes him, I will think about playing him then.


3 Jac Spade could benefit here if the contenders go after each other and battle hard, but he needs to find cover. First up likely gets him picked up at the tote board. CC knows all that. Shot at a price.
5 Intended Style was claimed last time at Flamboro, where he received the typical bad steer by Billy D and was parked the mile, giving it up late. Johnson doesn't do that great with first off the claim, as Olivias Way and others have shown. Short price, I will call him 2nd.  If he wants the front, he has a lot of company here.
4 Broadies Song was in the flow last time, but got wiped out and had no chance. He is another who can pick up the pieces if they battle and he is in the right spot. Shot if he trips out. 

8 Just Henry backed up last time and was taken by Puddy, his 3rd new boss in a row. He isn't the grittiest type, and the 7 hole plus being above an 8 makes me take a pass on him.
7 Chicago Hanover drops down below the claim level he was taken off pretty decent form. Red flag? I think so. He was a 5 just a couple of months ago. Class goes up,  class goes down.
1 First Impression would be a lukewarm  play at best in a straight 8 with few contenders. No thanks.
2 Loves a Challenge made a break last time on the class rise and meets many of those again. He has always been a very low percentage type at this track. He needs to drop back down.
9 Credit Refusal has one lifetime win, hasn't won in the last two years,  draws bad and can't leave to save his life. I will stop there.
10 Mach of Ballykeel was classy at one time, but has fallen off the cliff since Moreau ditched him. I see nothing to suggest he is nabbing a cheque here.


1 Jayport on Th Edge backed out of the pocket last time and was passed by the 2 horse. He has had a lot of chances but I will give him a pass on that latest race as he was coming off a layoff and Kopas and Kerwood are old school types who build towards form. No excuses if he backs up again, which he could easily do.
2 Trumpets  raced well in her 3yo debut off a layoff. She beat all but the going away winner,  and that probably makes her the favorite here. She has a shot, but I wouldn't go near anything approaching 2-1 or less.
6 J N Ryder finds a field where he could be by himself near the front with his one steady quick move while many are galloping or being held together trying not to. He has to learn to rate to maximize his limited overall talent. If that could happen, he could luck out here.
9 Windsong Magic was tried early at 2, didn't make it and was shut down after one try. She has come back ready to race, but her two Flamboro wins are slow and her back halfs are poor. Sure, she won both easily, but many of those fields are littered with older maidens who can barely break 2:06 and keep trotting. I am not sold she is ready to tackle the A track ones, even some of these who aren't much either.
7 Brookie Baby was well off the field the entire way for the 2nd time. I see nothing to recommend this one at this point.
10 Rusty Hefner is here to get around and possibly show he is worth bringing back when hopefully a better post appears and he is one race sharper and more experienced.
3 Murphy Paree will have to be seen,  as she has x's all over the page and one qualifier does not a viable trotter make.
4 Stonebridge Peace was tried early at 2, but in 3 attempts, she was distanced every time and moved out of the barn. Maybe she gets it together this time around, but she needs more speed. Watching this time.
5 Leroys Dream yet another with x's all over the page. He was put right back on the gate after the latest one, yet lay parked the mile. No thanks.
8 Une Duharas got around clean last time, but still did next to nothing. Pass for me.


6 Shock N Rock draws better this time and I expect him to be sent to the top, and possibly retake if he has to let one go. Tonights the night to make the bid. I will go to him for the win.
3 Thepaninsulahotel finds a spot that is to his liking here. He was a solid 2nd to a long gone sharp winner last time. He can leave a ton when asked, and I would expect that to be the case here. When saved off that, he has a decent 2nd move for these types. I'd hope, expect and demand 6-1 minimum to consider him, and 8-1 is more in line. Reasonable shot for a price.
5 Prince Sharka was put on the front last time, but got stuck behind a stopper and had to come on again late to get 4th. He is in the mix,  but still has to show he can fend off some who are tougher than he had to face in Charlottetown.
7 Sir Machalot has shown gate speed before at the B's, but seems to be short of that at this track if he is to have the required 2nd move, so Lyle takes him back and searches for a trip and cover. Sometimes that works. It did in December when he split horses late. Last time it got him jammed up in the pack. I can't play him until the price inflates because of that. Saftic subs for Lyle. No difference in my opinion.
2 The Optimist ships in from Hawthorne and has been horrid the last couple of years. He has recurring gait and soundness issues that usually show up around the last turn. When he isn't bothered by those, he can compete with these. Shot if that is the case tonight.
8 Forever Just  is highly overrated by most handicappers, and that has included me. I have had enough of his hanging ways and excuse filled trips. Others look a lot better in this spot. His time will come.
4 Hit and Giggle A  drops and needs to.  He totally spit the bit last time and with Massey this time, I will pass and wait for some sign he hasn't become the type that needs to go to Northfield or Northville when they open up.
1 Live and Learn was terrible last time and digs himself a deep hole every time, no matter the post. Pass.
9 Zingers Laugh is really up against it to get a cheque with these from the 9 hole.
10 Regal Babe sports two 8ths as he drops to the bottom here and draws the 10 hole. He was big odds the last two and this will be that again. I will wait to see if he shows a bit better form and draws the middle of the car.


3 Windsong Leopold is a long time maiden, but the two that beat him last time are both decent colts or even much better. That bodes well this time as he avoids them. He is hard to like for the top spot, but more likeable than most of these. Attrition top call. Have to see at least 4-1 to put him in play for actual money wagering.
4 Rose Run Ranger ships in from London off a solid maiden score and note who beat him the time before that. He could be the sleeper in this bunch. Others are hard enough to like that I would take a shot with him.
8 Mohegan Blue Chip  draws poorly this time, which hurts one who doesn't seem to have much grit. He will likely improve as Des tinkers with the once blue chip prospect. I'm not ready to call him a maiden no more in this spot.
6 Xpert Bayama is probably the post time fave. He has had 5 qualifiers over a lot of months, and appears to be sorted out.  However, he is still a first time starter and he didn't take his overall time down or show any high speed in that last one. I will call him to come up short first out. I wouldn't take short priced win action on him without seeing him try and beat racehorses for purse money.
2 Shadowfall bombed out last time in his return race, and he did about the same when he was sent  off as a short priced favorite back in December. I don't like the way he finishes and I will pass on him. Vanderkamp can beat me and prove me wrong in this spot.
1 Classic News  ships in from London with so so form, one win and a decent, yet uninspiring 4th against winner types. He can hit the bottom of the super if he stays in and enough of these bomb out, which is not only likely, but probable.
5 Tall Shadow is still a maiden after multiple tries at the B's and his last quarters are awful. He is a longshot even with these poor prospects.
7 Double Decker is at least a 30 time maiden who can leave and effect the outcome. I will wait until KD opens to see if he is a play or play against there. No doubt what he is at this track.


6 Mach Power was basically going a training mile last time to teach him to follow cover and simply was unleashed when the time was right to draw off under no urging whatsoever. Unless he makes a miscue, he is tons the best. He could be the Gold winner come the fall. Most probable winner on the card. You are likely getting 1-9.
2 Trisun  raced great last time and gave it his best shot, but the winner was way too much for him and he moves up with him again. Looks 2nd best here unless that one bombs or makes a mistake.
7 Wichita Lineman was full value for the maiden score last time in very good time, but beating up on Mohegan Blue Chip, who doesn't look like much stock to me, doesn't inspire me to rate him higher than the top 2 ahead of him. He will likely need to adapt to the winners.
8 Leo was a bit player last time with some of the same maidens he moves up with. That was a good first effort at this track.  He can nab the bottom of the super if he can shave another second off that effort.
4 Giovanni  is a one time winner from many tries and his form is poor. He shows flashes of talent, but also issues which include hanging and soreness causing breaks or near breaks. Pass.
5 Lissilas  is bred to be a top one, but in 3 tries on the page with these he has not kept up, and last time was no different. I cant use him off that form and overall talent showing.
3 Goodmorningmister took his time down last time in his first effort with the real racehorses, but he has a long way to go to take on some of the better ones in here. I will watch to see how he handles them.
1 Think Again moves up with the favorite and others and other than beating some very suspect maidens, he has never shown he is is even in the ballpark with most of these.


9 Grana Padanno is sharp right now and has a big shot. Post 9 both inflates the price and makes the task tough. I will take a shot at the likely price I can get here. Looking for 5-1 or higher.
1 Wild and Crazy Guy sat in last time, split horses and flew up to pick off the leader who looked gone until late. The class rise is no issue here. He has recently competed and at times beaten as good or better than all of these. Reasonable shot if the trip works out.
5 Hldontghttoyurdrms draws the 5 hole with Fillion, and those are two pluses. He just doesn't go all the way much anymore. I will  tab him for 3rd. He is hard to rate higher with his inconsistent form.
4 Burnin Money is not one I generally like to play, but Carmen has turned into the master form reversal type trainer and the price is almost always there. I list him 4th,  but you could probably throw a blanket over my top 4 picks and make a case either way for or against.
2 Kinetic King is usually first up or coming late for a piece, and wins when he is low enough on the class scale to make the most of that. This is a deeper bunch.
7 Lindys Tru Grit looked great pre-race last time, but in the race, he didn't travel well and was gapping long before he ran. I expect some investigation and/or work has been done on this big ticket investment and he is raced to improve this time, which means sit in the pack, tip wide on the turn and finish well for whatever he gets. I'm watching.
6 Domedomedome beat up on her own kind and has generally improved over the last few months, but now is up in territory she is unfamiliar with. Older colts and classy, speedy, tough, proven winners. Not yet for me.
8 Ramas Last Son has very good gate speed but post 8 is likely to get him hung if he tries to deploy that here against a tougher bunch than he can normally take down anyway. Can't see him on the ticket.
3 J Cs Jake moves up with the one who beat him soundly and goes for Joe C off the claim. He has had him before. He appears to be a bit player with these.
10 Nowucit Nowudont was extra choppy gaited last time, but handled well by Phil and sped up when he could. Speed has never been his issue. Post 10 and the rise are enough for me alone to discard him this time.

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