Thursday, February 18, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 18, 2016


6 Lady Santana looks tough to beat here.  She blew by a similar bunch 2 back,  and just missed last time against similar at Flamboro. She was very durable last year at 3,  and at times looked good on the track. She almost surely draws a claim tonight, so she wont be saved. I can't find one in here to beat her, even though she will be odds on, I will go with her. She would need a bad trip to go down.
3 Big Tsunami is just the type who would take down the favorite if she doesn't get it done in here for whatever reason. She is very variable, but the odd time she shows up, trips out and gets in the picture. She drops a shade here, and that can't hurt. Viable 2nd choice for a price.
5 Twin B Breezeway was following Frosty Delight last time when she got steppy and had to go 3 wide to avoid her, then made the lead but was running in bad and that crazy run at the lead meant she had it by the top of the stretch. Once again, she gave it up late. She has one big move, and I'm sure Fillion is aware he needs to get up close, sit and pray for room to time the little talent she has just right. If Gibson could get her slightly better and off that line, I could see her if all that happened and the fave had road trouble. Very long shot, but it's not pie in the sky.
9 Whiteglance back into the claimers, another bad post, and her last line doesn't stack up with the best 3 or 4 of these anyway. She is a longshot.
1 Who Says That draws inside tonight, so that gives her reason to convert the performance of the last into a better shot. She still has not gotten on the super since coming here while not beating 5 claimers. I will pass again, but she is more viable now, relatively speaking. Lets see her get on the ticket and go a bit faster.
7 Rhondas Example tried to pike them last time, but once again like her qualifier and the race before that, she really gave it up late. I like others better if I am going to play behind the favorite.
2 Thrift Shop got a bit closer last time, but still hung like an East Coast type meeting A track horses. She probably would be better at Flamboro now where the stretch is shorter and the speed more in her pay scale.
8 Frosty Delight couldn't look worse than she did last time, seemingly done on the turn, then coming on again in the stretch to get it done while about 11 wide at the wire. Those types usually don't come back better the next time, and she has a history of going very bad very fast. Sucker money if she is less than 3-1, which is likely.
10 Stonebridge Suntan aborts the nw2 suicide mission tonight, but gets post 10 and would still be 100-1 if she drew the rail.  She has to show something to suggest she should keep coming back to this track.
4 Jinglewriter is impossible to like off the lines on the page. Toss.


2 Radar Trap already has the maiden win, and looks to be aimed at the Grassroots fillies, so there is no reason not to make a good play for the win here right out of the box. She showed talent at two and was obviously thought of that way to take a shot at the Battle of The Belles at Grand River,  which didn't work out when she ran early. Her mother has produced a long line of pretty nice performers including full brother and sister STOLEN CAR p,5,1.49.3f, 440k and SELMAS WISH p,3,1.55.4f, 74k and half brother Ideal Jet. The speed of her qualifier is not relevant, as she finished well and showed 56 speed over Georgian at 2, which stacks up pretty good against this mediocre bunch. Top call.
7 Jens Credit has backed away in two starts for a purse. However, at least she was closing for a bit in the first one, and was sent to no avail in the next one. I will give her a pass on that and hope she tries the leave a bit, sit mid pack and come back on strategy. Last time, she gunned out from the outside on a snowy and deep track and the winner was 2-5 the best. She is learning and hopefully whatever needs adjusting will be taken care of. It's a stab. She could just be NFG. 
3 I C Your Shadow loses Saftic as he is on the bench. She is tricky to keep pacing, so that is a significant variable. Her long record of coming close but not winning is another one. This is not a deep or overly talented field. If the logical ones cant perform, she can fall into a deep freeze cold February win. That isn't exactly an endorsement from me, in case you were wondering. Doesn't mean she can't win though.
4 Blueberry Will was fast at 2, but never won and was shut down. She has not done well in 3 qualifiers, with a very bad last quarter last time. She still will take lots of money on the Fillion angle. I will play against her as I like two others better and probably get more value price from them.
1 Orch Vicky is a lightly raced 4yo who shows awful final quarters. I want to see her at least compete for a minor prize to use her next time. Not in this spot.
5 Inexplicable Ruby is a very slow starter from any post, and only closes with the pack. She loses J Mac here as he goes to a 20 time maiden over her, one he has not driven before on the page. Pass on this one.
6 Zealous Seelster is very much the typical Big Jim. She can leave and looks good until she sees the tote board, then begins to gasp and stop. No thanks.


1 Flexceptional has enough ability and she can leave enough that on one of her good days, she can handle these. She leaves just enough that starting off the rail means she can beat them to the turn instead of having to tuck like last time. She had no room till late because she stayed in, but still closed a shade. Her last two were competent, so, I will  go to her with a price attached, hoping she gets a 2 hole ride behind my 2nd choice. Thinking there are 3 in here that will take more play and I can get the ML or slightly higher. Good value if it plays out the way I suggest it could.
3 Domitian Hall is a Justice Hall, so you always have to be aware that he could take off running on the gate and be out of it. But, with that risk comes some ability and he can leave fast. I will put him up 2nd as he probably is the favorite or close to it. He has a big shot if he behaves and saves a bit for the end. Trevor seems to get along with him well.
9 Magical Pumpkin shows back up after 3 weeks plus off, now on Lasix, which isn't surprising as that is something Carmen goes to when one doesn't perform, and it has turned many of his around. This one has finished awful the last 3, so its a reasonable thing to try. She also has a suspect gait and soundness as the mile progresses. Lasix wont help that. Shot, but I like others for the price better.
6 Crowningcrest is very spotty, but somewhat talented relative to these.  He isn't impossible considering the lack of depth and risky nature of the probable 3 faves. Longshot I'd add to the pick 5 if you have room and are looking for a sweetener in that mix.
7 Moonbeam Hall scares me as the type that will put it together one night, but he keeps running and disappointing me. I will cut my losses on him and stay away.
8 Herecomesthebride in the two starts for Moreau, he has had every chance and gaps near the end. He drops in class, but these aren't that much tougher than the ones that he couldn't keep the hole closed on. Pass.
4 Jimoris Tigeress another I haven't seen anything to suggest that she is way over her head chasing horses too fast for her. When they do the real trotting, she goes like a bottom end B track claimer.
5 Mr Putter can't see this one on any variable.
2 Pleaseforgiver Riley has had good runs in the past, but the last while he is not getting performance. He claimed this one for 6,  but she has gone directly backwards and would be a huge longshot even back in for 6 at London. Not with these from what I can see.


8 Catch Twenty Two seemed on the right track when he got up for 2nd, then was raced back on short notice, which didn't work out and he regressed for 2 starts. Last time he put it back together and closed sharply into a tough bunch for maidens. He duplicates that mile, with J Mac back aboard, he is the winner. Best bet on the card if the price is in the 9-2 range. It's likely much higher.
1 Flaherty goes first time Budd off the shelf. He isn't impossible on that angle, but he will have to be seen  parading. There is a lot to dislike about most of these, so if the price was right, he could liven up the early Pick 4 by beating them. Shot.
4 Windsun Falls drops out of the Count B where he looked and raced like he was over his head. He was a mid pack type with maidens before that, and he arrives back with more experience. He needs to finish better period if he is to win. I will list him 3rd until I see him engage and pass horses at the end.
2 Dreamfair Mesa first time starter for Fletcher and his bread and butter owner. His mother was not from the root mare that has produced most of those champions he has had.  She took a record of 1:59.3h and only made 6k. Obviously, blue chip breeding, but she wasn't a performer. Its tough to go to one like this first time out. He isn't OSS bred, so, obviously he isn't being aimed at those and has to pace very fast to be sent to any stakes in the States to contend. I doubt he is raced easy first out. He should try and contend, but I think he goes down this time.
7 Charlie Badlands will probably get play on the second off the shelf, paced a fast mile last time angle. I suppose there is something to that with these, but I'm not sold. He appears a contender now, but not win worthy. He got up last time for 3rd. That is more likely the cheque he is fighting for again.
5 Century Churchill like many of Joe Hudon's, they just don't get it done. He seems to have one or two a year that do, and the others hang around maidens the whole spring and summer,  get moved at a B track and then end up some kind of conditioned claimer for another trainer. He looks like one of those. Pass.
3 Hows My Driving has not impressed one step in the two times I've seen him race. I have to see something to make me consider him. So far, nothing.
6 Fleetwould Mach show nothing to suggest he is even in the mix for the Super.
9 Ganacus Seelster looked awful qualifying, horrid in his first start and regressing in the next one. Can't see anything to like about him to this point. He looks like he will spend his summer at Clinton or Hanover for another trainer looking to milk B track money.


5 P H Kenny Fought the good and tough fight last time and made the chalk work every inch of the stretch to get him near the line. He comes back to that mile, he has these in his back pocket. Most probable winner on the card.
1 Rolling Rock  has possibly recovered from his foolish attempt at very tough Stakes horses. He was progressing well to that point, but that stunted him. He is only a 1 time winner, but he has tactical speed and if he can get in behind the fave, he can track him to the wire.
2 Scary Harry came too late last time, and he will not leave no matter what post he gets. That means he relies on the field coming back to him when he makes the big late rush. That will work with many of these,but the fave isn't one of them,and he isn't a cinch for 2nd either.
8 Bad As Creek  has long gaps in his racing, and when he has raced, he hangs off decent trips. I will pass for now.
3 Casimir Obama is having trouble getting a cheque in the maiden races.Next!
4 Rock the Dream seems over his head to me with the top 3 or 4 in here. There is a class he can win at this track, but this doesn't look like it.
 6 Cool Reward  won on 3 days rest against maidens. A good effort, but he goes shallow end to very deep end here. No thanks.
7 Major Unique couldn't take down soft maidens last time  and now meets tough winners.Total pass for me.
9 Princesss Diamond is not one I can touch from the outside with others that look better than him  and he hasn't impressed me with the way he travels anyway. If he hits a conditioned 10 claimer, I'd be more willing to look for something to like.


5 P L Indyanaca is the stopping type I generally toss. But in these types of races, one like this can reverse form and step up. Menary seems to stick with these and find something to improve on. One last chance for me tonight at a price, being at least 5-1 to consider. She is ML fave, but I doubt it plays out that way.
9 Secret Missy looks very tough with her new connections and she showed flashes of talent before when she didn't interfere and take herself out of it. Maybe a Bax touch has fixed that issue. She is a big strong mare who wants to do it. I could see her. Not thrilled taking Mayotte for the win, so I list her 2nd.
4 A Rod Hall was solid and safe in his first for McKinnon and comes right back, with some risk attached of course. It did look like he was trying to run again leaving, and J  Mac was very careful to hold on to him as he went forward. He is a big strong trotter who looks good when he is doing it right. There are a lot of suspect lower priced ones in here. I'd give him a shot considering he is bred to beat these and a lot better. Will he be driven with more purpose this time, and will he blow up or go more if that is attempted? The jury is out.
6 Joyous Hall on the nights she is right, she can leave hard and follow a long way. That trip could be there tonight. She wouldn't shock me, but I like others better.
10 Kaddy almost took them all the way last time, aided by a leader who broke and got out of the way, leaving her loose on the lead. Post 9 again and I will  go elsewhere as that type of post usually doesn't result in the lucky trip she ended up with last time. If a few broke early and she got to the pocket, that would be different. Can't count on that.
2 Muscle Time got up late to take maidens.  These are tougher, but he isn't out of the mix here. I went elsewhere. I'd toss him on the pick 4 if I had an extra spot.
3 Perfect Road  reverted back to his suspect form last time, never keeping up. He blew away maidens, but as expected, any pressure from winners and he doesn't appear to be much. Pass.
7 Erja  ran first time Tyrell, and while he is a very good trainer, he doesn't seem to do well with young trotters, or keep them from running eventually. I have to pass.
1 Tattle Tale Hall ran last time and has lost the form it looked like he had a month ago. Pass.


9 Rolandale Buster got held up mid pack last time by one beside him who was all over the track and pinned him in briefly. 56.3 over Monticello in January on a track rated off 2 seconds would certainly be the type of mile that would handle this lot. Jason Ryan is a more than competent driver but J Mac takes over and he is a regular on this circuit. Top call for the price and luck change. He needs flow this time. He should have a hot pace to shoot at.
10 Kablooie another new barn, and a bad post. These are very soft. If he happened to find the right trip and flow, he is right there. Big ifs.
4 Crown Isle Is likely to be sent down the pike this time, but he has company in wanting that trip and some others who will take runs at him. That likely gets him picked off near the end. In the mix if the 5 somehow backs off at the start. That is very unlikely however, as that is the only trip he wins off of.
3 Lost in Panslation has not raced well for a while now. If not for the improved post, Fillion and how weak this group is, I would toss him. I would have to add him to the pick 4 in a race where there isn't much to recommend on any of these.
5 Future Million is very much the type that likes to go down the road when he has a shot to pull that off. If he has to park, or even be first up, his history is that he is NFG. I think he sets it up for something else.
1 Buckshot Austin is intermittently good then awful. Because he travels poorly and is usually well off the gate, I will pass on him. He can beat me.
7 Likeavirgin has terrible form. But it is Joe C. and he is a tricky one. That is all I got for this one. Pass, but worried.
2 Prince Adam is forced to race here while Charlottetown has down time. He isn't impossible, but like most that race there that come here, the long stretch does them in.
6 Touch of the Past qualified okay off a layoff. Just okay. Jody sticks with Perriera. Mario B is a horrific ROI with anything other than his brothers horses. Gillis at one time was a very good claimer trainer. I don't think he has much to work with here, and will be making a trip to Flambingo in a nw5k tout suite.
8 Stir and Serve long time so so 5 claimer who has come alive briefly off the claim. I'm not sold he is up to this bunch, soft that they appear to be.


6 Ponder the Dream draws better this time and shouldn't be parked the mile. She raced very greenly last time, shaking her head when she was restrained. She did follow eventually and kept coming. I expect McNair to gas her out of there, as the fave still needs some careful handling to get away clean. That leaves her a shot at a soft half or a pocket trip if something legit wants to cut it and give her cover. I will call her on top with that possible trip scenario. I want 3-1 to try her. If the fave gets hit,  that is possible.
7 Fiestys Legacy has been kept around by her trainer, now owner, which is not something he does as a rule with these types. Her last was pretty good, now about 3 weeks plus in the past. I'm sure she is tight, as he has access to a track where he can train her fast. I call her 2nd, but she is reasonable for a price. Pick 4 must.
5 Bettys Bay made two foolish attempts at Grassroots fillies at 2 and was whipped. Shutdown, she returns with more realistic goals. She gets Fillion as Saftic is on the bench. Her fast time at 2 gives her a very longshot chance if that is in the bag. These are super soft. That is in her favor.
4 Docs Diva was handled carefully last time to make sure she got around. Jody managed her well but the winner wasn't soft and that left her 2nd best. She was running in signigicantly at times and was never all out driven. She has a decent shot here, but I'm not sold she is out of the woods enough to take another short price.
3 Greystone Ladymach didn't race a 2, started late at 3, took two wins with maidens at London, then hit the wall. Her mother has produced a wide assortment of performers. But the consistent thing is that they have soundness and breaking issues, high speed, and long gaps where they don't race. Unless they are keeping her to breed this spring, she appears to be heading toward a conditioned claimer.
1 Bad At Redhot was making decent progress at Flamboro towards a maiden win, but came here instead to avoid that and has yet to show she wont be outpaced when the legit A track horses do the real pacing for the money. Pass.
8 Treasured Moments went to the front last time, but backed away bad. She has tried various styles to no avail. Pass from the 8 hole. Double digits again.
2 Miss Mikela D  looks like she was entered at the wrong track.


5 Sky Guy at times shows decent ability, and then he goes lame and off form. He does have a lot of trouble with the turns at the B's, so racing here---properly classified--he can step up. He doesn't race over his head like his last try at this track. Top call for a price. 7 Stonehouse Petey drew the claim last time at 31-1 off that fast line previous. He did nothing-in this class--and now shows up almost a month later. I suspect vet work has been done. These are awful. I can play him if the price is right. I'm looking for at least 8-1. Not sure what to expect with respect to that. 

2 Hp Black Shadow made a big move for the lead last time but that left him open to be picked off by one who has some ability at this level when he travels okay. He is still 1 for 30 something lifetime and after that last effort, he will get play in here. I think he has a minor shot, but he is very beatable. 8 Jenkins Creek was able to stay in again last time and nab 3rd by simply pacing even the whole way. That type of trip might win him this if the two faves revert  to their winless, ratty ways.
4 Youre My Hero goes to Weller who has turned some ordinary B track types into pretty decent A track

performers...however, none of them won at first asking and gradually got better. I will stay away from this one as he is likely to take serious money with this motley crew. He has had a week or less to work with him. I will wait to see how he goes. Skeptical. 
3 Jetster does a lot of racing and was offered for sale when he found a taker. His two wins on the page are his two lifetime scores as he provided the donut as a 3yo. His last quarters are horrid. Pass for me.
6 Einhorn made multiple breaks last time and was well up the track in a poor field. I can't use him, even if I am looking for a longshot here. I am. But not him.
1 Earthquake Madness Is impossible to like, even with Fillion handling the lines. Pass.


9 Sodwana Bay was a strong maiden winner, and as she moves up gets post 9. I am not one who likes to play maiden winners first time on the move up to nw2 unless they are stakes bearcats, which she certainly doesn't show any hint of that. However, this is a pretty soft bunch, and the price should be right. I'd use her as one of a few who have a shot at a price. She was impressive in how she did it.
3 Money Magic put in steps after the gate pulled away last time, and she was the 2nd of Blake's to do that that night, as others did as well. It seems the track was tricky that night. I can give her a pass on that. Her start before that with these was pretty good, Jody sticks with her and perhaps he was trying to rate her and she made a green mistake. She paced okay the rest of the way. She has a big shot for a bit of a price if it was a simple one time thing.
6 Midnight Mayhem does not impress on the page. She started poorly last time and could only make moderate gains while using her energy to get back close in the 3rd quarter. She is hard to like, but this is just the type of race and horse that Hebert always bites us with. Another I will use with a shot at bomb prices. I don't love anything in this tilt. So, she only has to step up to be viable. Shot.
2 Maddys Credit went forward last time and if not for locking wheels with the leader near the wire, she was 2nd or 3rd. A good overall effort for a first crack at winners. She is in the mix here, but maybe needs one or two more to be up to speed with the type of effort needed to win nw2. She has one very big burst, but she needs a second move to win.
7 In the Shadows goes first time off the claim for Jackie Mo. I expect him to tinker with her in whatever he saw in her. I'm not sold she is a conditioned type. Her last quarters are awful. I will watch one time to see if he can do anything with her.
8 Ambrosia Seelster was rough gaited and running in on the last turn last time while following very live cover. Drury had to steady her and take hold to keep her from causing interference. She straightened up and kept coming in the lane, but was still bearing in too much to go forward.  That is an issue she had as well as a maiden, even when she won or got close to it. Post 8 is trouble and she comes right back this time and the price will be short. I will go against her this time and watch for signs she is getting over that habit, or getting over it and improving.
4 Princess Katie first time Galucci off the claim for himself. She has always been a non trying type, with just enough talent and speed to earn decent cheques. I'm not sold she is going to turn on the first start, even with Lasix added. I'd use her in a minor way in the pick 4 to CMA. Otherwise, I can't go to her.
1 Queenofthejungle Brealey has had this one now for 2 starts, and she just doesn't seem to have any speed. She didn't leave a step last time and made minimal gains off a rail ride the entire way. I can't go to her until I see some improvement. The two she beat at this track to break her maiden are still long time maidens who don't beat anybody.
5 Holiday Romance doesn't show any form to suggest she is making the super with these. Can't see it.
10 Uno Cincuenta No shot for various reasons which don't matter. 100-1 type.

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