Monday, February 22, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 22, 2016


4 S J Moore made a solid 3 deep move at Northfield last time to draw away from those. Like many, he had trouble with the down the road style Wine Photo deployed last time and he couldn't get near him. None like that one in here. J. Mac does pretty good with Joe C., and I will take my chances on him as my top call.
2 Steppin Out jumped up last time after a solid, yet unexpected 2nd the time before. That was a suspect thing to try and it didn't work. Back in with her own kind, with a good post, and Jody back in the fold, if she can keep it together leaving, a big if, she has a shot to upset the apple cart. After her first try with Jody, she has kept it together, so maybe she is the type that needs a steady driver to know her holes.
1 Petty Hanover jumped it off last time and started poorly without much recovery the time before that. He gives you 312k reasons to like his chances on a bounce back with Randy if he shows up. These types are very variable and you can forgive a 2 week form drop off if the price is right this time, and he parades decently upon viewing. I'd need 9-2 minimum to take him on. That should be there.
3 Girl Drama is a good steady earner, wins her share, hits the ticket about 50% of the time and stays in where she belongs. She comes late and that means she wins when the leader is vulnerable in some way. I like others for the win, but she has to be respected. Her consistency and record draw her the shorter price in here, and I will try for more value. Pick 5 must to CYA.
 5 Warrawee Proton was really good 3 back for Johnson, looking like a player. That drew in Bowins who took him as he was only fair that time, and drew in Moreau the next time as he backed up and had to requalify, as he has now done. I'm not sold he is back on track, as he has long periods where he just doesn't get it done. He is the likely fave, and I will go against him here.
6 Blush and Crush doesn't win much on this circuit as it is,  but her last 5 lines are very bad and she is a rank outsider here for the win. I can't touch her.
7 Fortunes Friend gapped out Freddie last time, and while he seems to be a fairly solid B track claimer, he has never done much at this track to suggest he handles a few here who have proven they are that. Pass.
8 Excuse Me Please Fuller is a historically very low percentage trainer and he is 0fer already this year. He insists on taking the high tag and putting an already mediocre mid pack type in the hole with the outside. No thanks.


5 Twin B Wrangler started up too late last time and was only able to get 2nd.  It's doubtful he was going to beat the winner either way, but every week is another week with claimers. He can turn the tables on that one this time. My top call for a price. I'd think 4-1 is fair. Could even get more if the fave gets hammered.
2 Topcornerterror got the worst of it last time. He got away 4th, sitting on Woggy Rocks back thinking as a live wire for weeks he would pull first up and go after the leader. A nice helmet to follow, which this horse needs and likes. That resulted with a helmet that backed into him on the rail, which drew him out first up while he paced a 27.1 3rd quarter and left him empty for the drive. He kept coming for 4th. Just a bad luck trip. Otherwise, he is as good as any. He does have decent gate speed if you want to use it, and I suspect Fillion wants him up near the top this time. If he can figure out where to position relative to One Warrawee, he can be fresher for the drive this time and has a legit shot to win. That is what Fillion gets paid for, and why he is consistently a top driver. Big shot.
7 Idole Duharas couldn't have gotten a better trip last time if you mapped it out ahead of time. Left out, yielded to One Warrawee, who carried him as far as he needed to while Woggy Rocks backed into the only other legit players, leaving him an easy vacate of the pocket and a drawing away score. He isn't always as potent when he doesn't get that trip, although he is still viable. I see him as taking almost even money, if not just above that here. I will look elsewhere.
6 Uf Bettors Hanover paced a back half in 54.1 last time, but it did him no good as he was just 7th. His total lack of gate speed leaves him vulnerable unless he gets a speed battle to make that move potent. I don't see that here. Possible ticket add if he gets the right trip. I don't see him passing them all. Shorter field helps his cause, but it also helps others he has to beat.
4 One Warrawee is very much the type you have no choice but to send to the top or choke. He refuses to sit in the hole and follow willingly. As expected, Zeron wasn't likely to fight with him, and sent him down the road, resulting in a gasping finish again. He meets the same types again and Zeron is away, so Trevor takes over. I can't see him beating all of these off trying the same tactics again. Pass.
3 Rockabella seems to be a better fit at least one level down and a bit player with these as he is currently. Pass.


4 Arnie beat these two back, going first up and trotting steady, which is what he always does. He isn't flashy, gritty or classy, but he is steady. They were soft that night, and they are again. Just the types he can make a living with until he wins out of this class and has to start thinking claimer. Overall, he shows better and more consistent back half speed than many of these. Top call as he simply looks like the value price horse in with these.
2 Lady Jones draws better this time and trots enough to suggest she can be in the mix at a price. She is chancy, as her trainer doesn't win races at the A track, but these aren't gassed up claimers or class movers she is facing. She has price upside.
7 Piscean got hung the mile last time from the outside, and that was enough to spoil her chances. She has had a string of poor posts, but post 7 is slightly better with the chance that a few from the inside have no speed or will run. That can land her mid pack just before the turn and a chance to sit and stay, and take a shot then. As always with her,  watch her parade. If she is sore or off somewhere, she will show it. If she passes that test, she is in with a shot. She has more natural speed than the entire field and that counts against a few who don't and a few who aren't there yet.
6 Crown Classic went to the front last time, kept her act together, got a pedestrian middle half of 1:01.1 and simply stepped on the gas to beat an iffy bunch behind her for her first win in 25 plus tries. She wont get that type of trip here, and I will pass on her.
8 Trumpets made a big move in the 3rd quarter last time while the leader was NFG and there was one out parked and blocking the flow. She was long gone by the time the legit ones got near her, and yet she was already walking at the tote board and two steps from still being a maiden. She gets the outside here, a back of the bus or close to it start, and several in here have shown a lot more than her to this point. I think she could be a very nice Grassroots filly come May and there is no reason to gut her tonight and end up with 3rd or 4th money. Pass for me this time.
5 Striknglyimpresive was running like a T bred last time and was never in it. She doesn't win much anyway and she is hard to like in this spot. And I don't like her. Pass.
3 Stormont Jubilee would need to do a lot better with these to compete. Her last quarters alone indicate if she keeps up she will have trouble going forward in the stretch. I will watch once. Richardson has to be respected as a B track guy who knows what to bring and not bring to the A track. If she keeps up and takes her overall time and last quarter time down, I'd give her a longer look for next time.
1 Flashy Hanover is impossible to like on any variable you can think of. Non driving driver. Doesn't win. No speed. No finish. Isn't doing well with B track conditioned claimers. Poor form. 99-1 shot at least.


8 Domedomedome the race office throws this one a bone and adds a condition to allow her to drop back in with these. I expect Jackie Mo to take advantage of that and try to find live cover then storm home for the minor upset. Top call. She is just in the right class spot to match her form and current level of ability.
5 Stormont Kate tried to leave last time but others went a bit more and she had to duck. She didn't like that and was getting jammed up at times. However, JJ did the right thing and kept her in and she finished strong with good late trot. She has a very willing leader this time who can go enough that she can follow and not get backed into. Big shot, but I will list her 2nd. A close 2nd call.
3 Wine Photo is exactly the type of trotter that can be very effective for a short amount of time in the Johnson outfit. This guy can leave a ton, trots pretty steady and can go a long way trying to bottom out fields. He just needs that "little extra" to make him last longer. He has met his trainer soulmate there.  However, he will likely have a pretty tough one on his back if he tries to pull that off here. I will list him 3rd on the first time off the claim overbet angle and that he can get picked up very late. In any event, he has a big shot and should be included on your pick 4 tickets. The rise up is also something that will have to be seen. When he drives off down the backside, many of these wont gap like the claimers he tries that with.
6 J Cs Jake was razor sharp in the winter when he behaved, and then drew the claim when he appeared to put the form and consistency together. However, he was very flat the night he was claimed, but appeared revived last time for Joe C., who had him before, although he was over his head. Back down with these, he has a big longshot chance to pull an upset here. I list him 4th, but I'd add him at least in a minor way on the pick 4.
4 Ole Jack Magic loses Saftic and overall, he looks to be over his head at this level. He was good for a bit and took advantage of that, but now has tailed off chasing tougher foes who have his number. He has also missed 3 weeks now. Lets see him go lower with at least a solid finish and then assess whether he is still sharp enough to bag a few near the bottom.
1 Ramas Last Son drops down here, but his form is not good, nor is his overall winning attitude, and while he drops, he was quite a bit over his head there, so he isn't dropping but now racing where he fits...but still looks in deep.  Pass. He will need to go lower to attract my interest.
2 Neils Golden Girl makes a break every now and then, but otherwise, she is steady when classified where she can be tactical. This isn't a great spot for her in that others will beat her to the top and she would have to rough it to get it done. I will pass on her this time.
7 Nowucit Nowudont reverted back to his breaking habit last time, and was ever so close to doing that the first off the claim. He can stay trotting and beat me if he does that this time. Not sure he even wins if he stays at it. Pass for me.


3 Intended Style wired up a similar bunch last week off the claim and comes right back. Johnson jacks his tag up a shade in an attempt to keep him, and doesn't pay any post position price for that risk. When he gets good, he is really good. He also gets along great with Randy, and seems to only have one in here who can leave and come at him. I will call him as the winner of those two, and assuming that one takes some action and this guy stays at around 8-5 or higher, my best bet of the night.
4 Velocity Headlight  drew off on a similar bunch last time, and basically meets the same types, plus my top choice, who is better than all of those when he is good. Its a horse race for sure. I call this guy 2nd.
5 Amble Over Hanover  has been off a month off terrible lines and drops looking for something he can keep up with. He isn't a good off the shelf type. He seems to hit his peak around week 3, then be good for a week or two more. I will watch him this time to see if he is playable the next time. He isn't very sound, so you have to really watch him to see what he brings. On his good days, when in the right class, he has a history of blowing up the tote board. I will keep an eye on him. Pass in this spot.
6 Washington Hanover went directly backwards last time and has yet to win a race at this track. He will turn his form eventually, but is probably better off at KD or Flamboro.
1 Just Henry was taken again last time, and he was hung the mile then. These are even tougher at the top end of the short field. Pass for me. I think he has been raced and used hard lately and will start to tail off anyway.
2 Mach of Ballykeel shot the rail last time and hung in for 4th. That is about what he brings these days and a better post wont help him much be in a better position. He would have to rough it and he doesn't show that he can do that and beat these. Pass.
7 Cheyenne Ford Van Meer made a nice score on this guy, taking him for 6500, winning for 8 and losing him for 12. He went back after him for 15, and now he is stuck with a horse racing above where he can win and losing form. Hard to see where he is a play until maybe he fits the nw bottom class with a good post. That isn't this spot.


2 Hillsonator gets a better post this time and a new driver, as Zeron is away. Randy is a noted money driver and I think he might be willing to make Mario take a seat or carry him a way to release him if he wants the front again. Due to all that, and that he will be the bigger price of the two, I will go to him.
5 Demand an Answer blasted out last time and only went evenly from there, which was plenty enough for control and an easy score. The key question in this race is what if Fillion tries that again, gets in the 2 hole behind Hillsonator and Musical Rhythm is left out there? If so, can this one come back out and pass them both. There is a longshot chance he can. I will call him 2nd, but he has a shot if all that plays out, or one of the two faves runs and he has an easy pocket trip on the back on the one left standing.
9 Musical Rhythm blasted out of there last time, took no chances and bossed the 2nd best horse around. He is capable of doing that again, but the big money is on the table here and he will have to work for it. Post 9 is just enough reason to suggest he gets stung. He will take some beating, but is beatable.
3 All B Over gapped out and was soundly out trotted by the two logical big faves in here last time. There is nothing to suggest he isn't 4th or 5th here again. He would need a lot of battling to have a shot. Even then, he has to pass the one left standing. I don't see that.
1 Five Below seems to be getting his act together, but he hits two bearcats and a few others who are as good as him. He has bottom of the ticket possibilities. Cant see him near the top 2.
7 Muscles All Over is really up against it when both fields come together. It was reasonable to think he might take down half a field of contenders, not all of them at once.
6 Amityville Lindy is a pretty nice trotter to go in 55 and a bit with the way he travels. One day he might find a way to smooth out. For now, that handicap leads me to think he can't go any more and he would need to if he is to win this race.
4 Fleet Bumblebee starts slow and goes about 57. That wont cut it here. Pass.
8 Grand Premiere did little to earn his way into the final. Big longshot and not likely on the ticket.
10 Angels Kid  ran leaving last time and is a bit player at best from this post.


2 Thepaninsulahotel didn't have it last week after he was put in a spot to do well. He came his own back half in 56, and only one of these did slightly better, and that one has not raced well for a while now. At this stage, he can only bring it now and then. But when he does, like 2 back, he is very dangerous. He is also a lot better near the front and then following if he can get that trip. I think that is possible in this spot. He will need some luck and some more determination, but he has been an up and down performer for years now.  We see those types win this class all winter. Tonight could be his night at the price.
4 Shock N Rock spit the bit last time like the no good cheating rat he used to be a couple of years ago. I will go back to him this time with a price attached on the rebound. If he could get 2nd over, he is probably where he needs to be to apply the one burst he has to use.
5 Hit and Giggle A was better last time, but still not good enough against a bunch who were all hanging. He isn't impossible but he hasn't done enough lately to think he wins this without so much going right that you can't count on that.
7 Blissfull Years comes right back to the class he won last time, with not as good a post. He will be the fave or second choice, and his kind rarely doubles up. He barely got it done then. I like others better.
1 Prince Clyde was full value for his last victory, in this class,  but that was two months ago, he has been off 3 weeks and doesn't always show up and put out, even on the drop. There are better options here than were the case the night he won. I will go to others.
6 Ufdragons Rocket went to London last time looking for easier competition and didn't find it. He was beat by at least 2 who would be 1-9 in this race. He is in no mans land. He is probably a 15 claimer. This is a better spot for him while he fits it, but his lack of winning desire leads me to pick others.
3 Tomitta Bayama came up big 2 back and swooped up for a bombs away victory. He very rarely shows that determination, and is more a mid pack type. There are many others to like in this one, and I will go elsewhere.


4 Legionsofangels seems to go even, but is gradually taking down her time. 59 might win this race, and that seems like its in her ballpark 3rd off the shelf for a young trotter learning the game as she goes.
2 Dead Red Hitter kept it together last time. In a race where you really have to dig to find viable ones, I will look the other way on his very spotty form and look at his record last year and show of speed in the 3rd quarter in the qualifier. Its the stab of stabs. I'd be looking for at least 20-1 to use him. At least. I said at least.
6 Northern Bruiser has some breeding behind him, and was aimed at top horses last year, with mixed but not horrid results. I can make a case that his qualifier sets him up for a fair try. He is in the mix. Dagfin seems to take it easy on them first out of the box. For that reason, I list him 3rd. If he comes to play, he could be long gone on this bunch.
3 Miami Magic the logical fave here who was beat by two who have both graduated since. Logical faves have a way of not proving logical in reality 2 minutes after the gate speeds away when it comes to this class. I only play those if they are very dominant and show high promise. Not the case here. Pass and play for the longshot. I'd take the risk and leave her off the pick 4. I'd rather have another longshot because you need many in here to increase your chances of getting the one that might be the one.
9 J N Ryder can leave a ton and is fairly steady but cannot finish no matter how you trip him. His times probably get him bet a bit in here. I can't back him with his record of finding ways to lose.
5 Brookie Baby continues to gap fields with little show of any recovery. She goes back to Smith and that is not a
good sign.
10 Sassy Dreamer TOSS
8 Lilysgonecheating TOSS
1 Honorable Mission TOSS


7 Charlie Is a Joker bided his time in the Preferred as the good soldier waiting for his time at bat. That comes tonight. He meets a bunch he can handle here, most of which don't have his current form or class. He would have to not show up to get beat. He isn't above going it first over when he meets these types and grinding them down. Top call. Not sure what to expect price wise.
3 Wild and Crazy Guy had to go first up last time, and that isn't his trip. Sitting and making a move late worked well two back, and that is a trip he can win off of. Call for 2nd with a shot to beat my top choice to the punch if he gets held up somehow.
1 Hldontghttoyurdrms  went a long way last time off a soft trip with every chance. The winner outclassed him and otherwise it was a big improvement on the one before that. He, however, doesn't seem to have it week to week and I wont rely on him. I will place him 3rd and go to two others who produce more often when expected.
2 Muscle Matters  moves up here and its a tough rise. I'm not sure he is up to the best of this bunch at this stage. He needs to finish better and go faster. I haven't seen that from him yet.
6 Hubby Number One moves up on the improve, but I am not sold he is one of these. He will have to show me. He has a tendency to not put strong efforts together and gap in the lane. These will give him more than he wants to deal with.
4 Our Mojo  is in very tough with these types who have always been better than him. He is in class mover territory now and the move down is what I will wait for.
5 Burnin Money spit the bit last time and his form has been poor for a month. He usually shows you a hint of turnaround before he goes on a good run. I will wait for that, possibly on a drop in class to make him braver.


3 The Optimist left out, kept it together last time and was rushing up the rail. He has to be seen parading, but if he passes that test, I will go to him. He doesn't hold form long, but when he has it, he is right there with these.
1 Alexie Mattosie was sent on a suicide mission last time by Saftic. He wont make that mistake again and he can rebound.
8 Live and Learn saved ground up the rail last time, but ran into a wall, steered right around that but lost momentum and a couple of lengths then closed with the pack. He is just close enough to pop if he does a bit better and finds a late seam.
6 Prince Sharka hung down the lane last time when he had the tiring first over leader in his sights. Nevertheless, he meets similar this time less that winner. Maybe he builds off that and outstaggers them. Maybe.
2 Forever Just  draws better for sure. But he had the 5 hole with these types and gave it up late that night too. I'm not sold its only been the post positions. He was good for a while last spring but once he worked his way up to the top level, even trying to keep up with those stung him. He will turn at some stage, but the shorter price is not the night I will take a chance on him. He can beat me tonight if he is ready to turn his form around.
4 Hail the Taxi  probably has a shot in a race like this where there are many like him.  But still, I cant tab him. He just doesn't win races.
5 Czar Seelster can not be played off those lines. He has to show something to suggest he hasn't lost a lot of talent and form.
7 Zingers Laugh on his best day, at the top of his form, he is only one of many with these. I will  pass on him until he heads back to the B tracks.
9 Lisvinnie post hurts him even if he was viable, which he doesn't look like he is.
10 Oldfriendskentucky  non factor with these from this post.

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