Saturday, February 20, 2016

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 20, 2016


5 Single White Sock gets to drop off his latest line with much tougher than these. He was a fast closing 2nd the time before that with these types, and he had a bad post then,  and the time before that as well. When he gets away a shade better his late move is very potent at this level. Top call this time.
2 Mitt Jagger looks the best on paper here. He was a pretty talented colt at 2, then showed promise at 3, but got sick and was shut down for the season after only 4 starts.  He was qualified look a colt ready to  go and being aimed at something a lot more  important that this race. As well, his  stablemate was scratched sick last night, and that is a concern. For those reasons,  and the likely short price, I will call him 2nd. He bears watching. No doubt about that.
1 Stature Seelster picks up a driver here, and that certainly has to be factored in. He still appears very dangerous at times and also equally fast and talented. Being off 3 weeks is also an issue. He is the real  dark horse in this tilt. No matter what, he needs to improve his final quarters to take  on the best here. He has a longshot chance.
6 Sabine Pass wired the level just below this. He seems to take a few to improve at each level,  which is reasonable enough. I will give him one with these to see how he stacks up. He wouldn't shock me though. He appears to be the type who matures late and suddenly shows up as a 5yo who is a high end horse. Not that he is going to be Nickel Bag, but his progression is mirroring that horse at this stage.
3 Smalltown Terror switched from bottom of the barrel claimer to condition last time and was a solid 2nd. You can't take that away from him.  These are a bit tougher. I will call him off the ticket. Gilmour's seem to have a very short form life and he is close to the downside of that.
7 Imkeepnthisguy is all over the map class wise,  and lands in a spot he fits but maybe is a cut below the top 3 or 4. His slow starts from the outside are a big issue for him,  and he is likely in for that type of trip again. I will wait to see if he can show me more,  or if he is heading back to a conditioned claimer.
4 Bieber Hanover got the parking ticket last time and he didn't have a great trip the time before that. He appears  to need everything  to go his way for him to perform. When it does, he does produce. I will pass on him. If he gets the trip and beats me, so be it. 
8 Distinctiv Rusty was claimed by Isaac for 10k on January 7th,  but has not performed in 3 starts and now comes back with Lasix first time. He stopped last time like he bled. He is likely to be better this time, but these still look pretty tough for him overall. I will watch to see if he is improved, and ready to take on claimers if he goes there next.


3 Rafa is super talented, but also his own worst enemy. He wants to go a million miles an hour and not save something for the end. That is a family trait he inherits and hopefully the more he races he might figure it out. He comes to his speed early in his career, but I can't say the same for his maturity. At this point, he is a lot faster than smarter. In spite of that, I'm putting him on top again. He still only got picked off by one late last time. A slight improvement will be enough to handle them all. Nothing less than 6-5 to make him viable.
4 Mach Code couldn't go with the winner or the one that tripped out and got up in time. I will call him to last a shade longer this time, now that he has 3 under his belt. I don't think he is as talented as my top choice, but he is much smarter and versatile, and if that one undermines his own chances again, he could be sitting on his back and the one that pounces this time for a price.
8 Half a Billion has one crazy burst that has to be timed right. If it isn't, he deflates significantly before the wire. Jamieson has always been the type of driver that learns a horse and gets better on them as he figures out where the sweet spot is. That could be the case here. Longshot chance if he fishes out Cajon Lightning, follows him and can tip him at the right spot to arrive in time.
7 Cajon Lightning turned his form around last time, by sitting a trip and pouncing on a leader who shot himself in the head by going more than he needed and trying to beat off one who wasn't going by him either way. He is obviously in with a fair shot, but he has been hard raced for a long time. Being not very sound anyway, I will go against him tripping out like last time.
1 Legion of Boom strikes me as at least one cut below most of these, although back in conditions, spotted right with the right type of trip, he will win his share. Pass for me with these for now.
6 Sports Lightning looks hopelessly over his head in this spot. A Grassroots mid pack player racing tough Gold winner types. Total pass on the win front. Can't see him near the ticket.
2 Shippen Out zero shot with these.


4 Wizard of Osney Was one who did take down Wine Photo first off the claim for Moreau from the 8 hole in a sharp 55 and change score. She looks the best of this bunch if she is right back to that effort. Great claim at this stage.
5 Giona missed her last race sick, and will be back blasting out as McLean almost always does. I could see her lasting for a good piece if she can let one go and follow to the tote board. She isn't impossible but this race is a bit deeper than she is used to.
9 Flexie is gradually coming around for Giles, who is very good with these types. Post hurts here, but she can get a slice again if the flow works to her favor. She is one to keep tabs on.
6 Herbies Wildflower comes right back to this class after bombing out last time as a very bad short priced fave. She was on the chooch when that was not a good trip that night, especially at that point of the card. Either way, I've seen her race at Miami Valley and she was chewed up even then. She is a tough and fast mare, but I think she is tired. Sucker money if she takes action like that again.
7 Freddie wired a horrific bunch last time and takes the big class rise. He has always had talent, but keeping form is a big issue for him. If somehow he has clicked in, he isn't impossible. I'm not sold. If he had taken down a Wine Photo or one like that, I would have cut him more slack. There wasn't one in his race last time who is a legit WEG horse. I will watch this time. He has to show me he can do better with better.
3 Jayport All Muscle rises back up to the level he has had a lot of trouble with before. He is not a frequent winner as it is. Not a good spot to play him here. Pass.
1 Fashion Goddess made one quick move to the top last time and opened up enough to coast home. She is good for one of those a year, and now she has it. She moves up and faces much tougher. Pass.
2 See R Chin Win had a one race stay and the Dagfin Inn, and now goes back to Markle. She was gapping Freddie. Freddie. Yes, Freddie. Now, in a head scratching move, she goes bottom claimer to tough conditioned class off that race. In terms of passes, this is the overpass of passes.
8 Gronk needs to get his act together before I can go near him. One day he probably will. I haven't seen it yet.


3 Mach Pride is hard used as a rule to get out on the lead, or even better, in the pocket, and then come back on. If you have to push him midrace, like A Mac did last time to keep up to a dueling set of leaders, he wont finish. So, he needs a trip and could get it here. He is one of many that are possible for a price. He is consistent about how he races and he wins his share.
2 Sunny Beach Day won at the bottom by pouncing mid race on a leader going the wrong way and opened up plenty to draw off and win easy. He makes a significant two class jump here, but he is tactical, razor sharp and could be the price to play in here. He has tackled these before and held his own. He just seems a lot sounder these days, which helps his cause.
8 Grin for Money took a lifetime record first time Moreau, then started to regress and has continued to slide. He takes the big class drop here, but I don't think its enough. He has reverted back to what he always was with Kopas. He can pick up these types and slightly better when the trip favors him and he has a good night. I'm not sold this is that spot.
4 Twomickeytrip is a fast, but unsound horse, who looks in deep with this field, which isn't soft. One more drop down and if he holds form and race horse soundness, I might go to him then.
7 Avatartist continues to regress, as his soundness falls apart. He has a long history of big talent, big gaps in his racing and steering issues that result from wear and tear. If he takes tote money here, he is bad value. I tried him 3rd off the shelf when he was sharp and still reasonably sound enough to take a shot. He got picked up that night, and now, he is on the downside of the hill. I would think after this next layoff he comes back in the claimers. Very much reminds me of Crafty Master, although a better bred and higher quality animal.
5 Big City Jewel  made a break last time and McNair ditches his fathers horse for a mid pack type with seemingly a small, but better shot. I can't go to him based on all of that. He is a closer and that is in his favor here. But, he rarely goes by them all.
6 Mckinney is a one trick pony, who pulls hard, wont sit and follow willingly, but stops enough that others dont always want to let him go because he wont be easy to retake. That puts him in a tough spot as a racing proposition. He does drop here, but he wont have an easy time getting the front or going easy fractions. He likely sets it up for something else.
1 Hes a Sensation got beat a nose a step below, but this level is tough for him if they aren't very soft, which they aren't this time. I would like him back down where he just raced. I will wait for that spot if it comes.
9 Hunch Man not with these from this post. Pass.
10 The Big Year shows solid and consistent 52 speed and if he had drawn better, I'd give him a shot. He is hard to like with the hole he is likely in at the start. Pass and wait for another time.


5 Mach Magic put it together last time and almost took them all the way. She gets Fillion here as McNair goes to Much Adoo. Normally that would red flag me, but I think that is a mistake and I'd stick with this one. Top call. Any kind of trip that saves something for the end makes this one a decent priced winner.
6 Twin B Sweetheart was scratched sick last time, but was a good 2nd in Leg 1. She is in the mix, but she has trouble finishing if she is pushed early. She has a shot, as do many here.
8 Double Olives just didn't have enough last time and the weather probably didn't help. She seems to show up when the big money is on the line, as it is tonight.
10 Much Adoo 10 hole is death for this type. Can't use her from out here. She would need a lot to go right for her to get the top prize.
1 Ainsleynoelle tripped out last time for one of her every now and then wins. I like too many others here to go to her and see her double up in a final like this.
7 Pinky Tuscadero didn't wait last time, and took an earlier run at the leaders. She still hung at the end. Every trip seems to result in that type of finish, and I will abandon her now. She could do with a trainer change. She is not performing to the promise she showed last year.
9 Amazing Control tries very hard and is likeable with some rest and the right trip. She could prove me wrong here, but I don't think she has enough to overcome this post. Pass and go to others.
2 Show Some Leg is almost always a bit player type as she just doesn't do enough on the end of a mile to win the race. There is a big price win in her down the road this spring, but I will wait for another day to seek that out.
3 Tilikum was coming along nicely and shows some talent at times. She seems to be regressing a bit now and as this is the best one St. Pierre and Staley have, I expect him to take an aggressive shot and bust out of there looking for a close up trip. I wouldn't toss her, but she is more likely to effect others chances than enhance her own.
4 Windsun Chanel is a complete outsider longshot in with these. I don't know if I play her in with nw2 types. She has to find a level. This doesn't look anything like one that suits her.


6 Entranced was a solid 2nd to a back class daylight winner who woke up that night. Otherwise, he has been beaten by some pretty nice trotters and hung in for good shares at this level. He is a viable option with a bit of a better price than my 3rd choice in all likelihood..
3 Justalittlefaster is one of those who turns his form on a dime from some bad outings. He has a good turn of speed but at times needs handling to keep him going. Those types have bad months and then click back in. I can use him for 2nd on the off chance he shows up this time. His current form is poor. No doubt.
8 Twiggys Twick doesn't appear to meet the condition earnings requirement, yet is in to go here and comes in off two very good lines. If she can perform back to those she is the best of this bunch currently. I will list her 3rd because the price value wont be there.
2 Zukav has matured a bit this year and become easier to rate, and thus drive with an eye to making the most of his one late brush off a decent gate leave. This level is still something that gives him problems, but there aren't any terribly solid ones in here to think he is outclassed by a Bags For All or Stormont Kate here.
4 Summit City Nate has the speed to be a player on the days he doesn't blow up. Being a Justice Hall, he is always a possibility to do that. I'd toss him on the pick 4 to CMA if there was a spot left.
1 Santo Domingo picks up Fillion and the rail, but he is hopelessly win shy, even in the bottom condition. I can't go to him at this level unless he somehow channels his inner Mack Lobell and reverses his career trend.
7 True Day Dream was 2nd with these last time from the same post she gets here, but she also doesn't travel well on the track week to week. She has a lot of talent, but she will have to be seen in the post parade. Either way, I will go elsewhere for my top 3.
5 Mego Moss is not getting it done at this level and is iffy and the level below. When he drops some lines and gets in with those, or hits the 12 claimer, I will take a better look to see if he is formful enough to rely on. He isn't always.
9 Power Move draws poorly, starts slowly as a rule and is a bit player even off pretty good trips.  Another who will be more viable on a drop in class and a better post.
10 Stormont Wizard starts very slowly as a rule and draws the 10 hole here. That is no recipe to get your picture taken. He takes a big drop here, but I will wait to see if he goes well here, draws better next time and goes one class lower. He is up against it here.


3 Track Master D was taken back by Jody last time, which is not his style as a rule.  He paced a great back half but it didn't do him much good. Maybe Carmen did more tinkering. He is likely to be a big price here. I will put him in with a shot due to all of those things. I would expect him to fire out of there this time.
7 Mohawk Warrior is 3 weeks out of the box, but his form is good and he has enough talent to compete at this level before he eventually works his way up to the Preferred and might have some trouble with those.
1 Wazzup Wazzup moves up two levels but he has been here before. He has to do slightly better in terms of his current form. I will call him 3rd but he wouldn't shock me. His short price wont be there this time and that makes him more attractive.
6 Velocity Driven came late last time and paced his own back half in 54.2, which is more in line with what he can do when he puts out. He did have a wall to face when he got near the top,  and that is an issue he faces as a closer for he most part. I will put him up for 4th but I'd use him in the pick 4. If he gets a clear lane, he could just blow by them all. 
4 Machal Jordan drops back down but doesn't hook a soft group. I will go elsewhere.
8 Crocadile Canyon seems like a perfect fit for a 30-35 claiming handicap, but that isn't being written or filled currently. He will be very reliant on falling into a trip that favors him against others who get used too hard to get him on the ticket with this type of horse.
2 Cool Rock is a one trick pony who isn't as potent when the top end of the field keep going like these do. Pass for me until he goes back down the ladder a bit.
9 Dalton Bromac N blew up the tote board last time and is back in with similar types, but maybe a deeper and more talented bunch. Post 9 presents a challenge then, and I will watch him this time. Others look more win worthy when all the variables are considered.
10 Ideal Jet  deep waters and a bad post this time. Pass.


1 Bringhome Theblue has this class opened up for him on the earnings condition to let him in the back door. If you think the 2 needs a start, and the 4 needs at least one to get up to race speed,  then he stacks up pretty tough with the rest. He takes a slight drop off a very solid finish. Top call and the price should be right with Shades of Bay on the scene. If the price is in the 7-2 range,  he is my best bet of the night.
5 Tighten Up is certainly sharp and stepped up last time when asked to challenge these. Moreau has found what makes him go and he has a big shot tonight at a price if the ones who come in with bad dates or layoffs are overbet. Price option.
2 Shades of Bay has been a bearcat for about the last 6 weeks he raced. Now off a month, and with probably bigger dances ahead, he isn't likely to be raced hard or aggressively here. Can he still take them on ability alone?
Yup. Will I play him with that angle? Nope. Pass.
8 Mac Raider has missed 3 weeks and has been a bit player anyway at this level since Fuller claimed him. Fuller is very good at gradually improving whatever a horse has, as we saw with Mappos Moenhay and Mileys Big World, among many he has turned over the years. I will list him 4th, but I'm still waiting for the turn. This one always showed flashes of decent ability and the key is there if Fuller can find it.
9 Senior Market is razor sharp for Titus, who has the key to him. However, post 9 in with this bunch is no picnic. He has no shot at the 2 hole here, and I don't like him to do any better than have a shot at 3rd if he catches the right flow and a few weaken late.
4 Sportsmanship I would think he needs at least one start to go with others in here who are racing steady and have pretty good form. Pass and watch. The transition to the aged types is not an easy one for a mid range type like this.
6 House of Terror moves up and faces tougher. You cant knock his form or his speed, but Jody was in a tough spot as he drives for both the trainers he had to choose from here. He chose the other. That's enough for me. I will pass here on this guy and watch to see if he stacks up. Jury is out.
7 P L Heavenly beat these in his first for Brealey and went about the same mile last time but that was only good enough for 3rd. He loses Phil to the obvious drive he wants to keep, and I think he is more of a bit player than contender at this level week in, week out. These aren't soft enough for me to put him on the ticket.
3 Julerica still doesn't leave or travel well and has a lot less ability to outpace these in the lane than he did one level lower. I can't touch him until he either improves his gait or drops enough to offset that flaw.


4 Nickle Bag As many have mentioned, Trevor gets the most out of him, he is very tough to go against right now, and he is the one to beat. So, I will list him on top,  as I think maybe one more week and he is beatable. I'm not sold he doesn't go down this week, so if I was to play a pick 4, I wouldn't key him like he is a best bet type,  and would add my next two underneath him evenly or close to it.
3 The Rev draws better this time and that helps his cause. He needs any edge he can get with this bunch, and not having to work so hard to get the lead and keep it is energy he can use at the end. If he got a live two hole ride, he has a shot.
1 Nirvana Seelster has very good early speed, and can be determined and gritty on the end of the mile when he is sound and sharp. He appears to be both at this time  and he is another I put underneath Nickle Bag with a solid shot if he gets soft this time.
5 Rise Up Now  did not perform towards the end of January, as many of Moreau's didn't and got 3 weeks to regroup. I am sure he has a win in him against these--eventually, but for tonight, I can only slot him 4th.
2 Prescotts Hope is still rock solid in terms of being a legit high end type, but maybe has tailed off from a lot of big and tough miles. He cant go  to the front and boss these around like he did in the fall for a while. I like others better at this stage and will look to engage him again when he gets to drop, if that is the case.
6 Erle Dale N moved up the ladder and  lucked into two wins when the trip really worked out, and he certainly is very good stock. But possibly not really as good as many of these most nights. Pass.


6 Stimulus Spending
suffered a bad trip last time. He can turn the tables on that. Its debatable if he has enough class to beat all of these. I will give him the benefit of the doubt this time in a race where its hard to pick one out.
1 Grits N Gravy tripped out and beat these last time. It wont be that easy this time, but this isn't the deepest field. If he can fish out cover and follow it, he has a big shot. 
5 Better Art  went a solid trip on the front end last time and comes right back with the expectation he will try that again. No reason to think he doesn't have a shot to pull that off. He is one of a few that could hit the line together or close to it.
10 Er Quinn likes the top and that penchant did him in last time. Post 10 means it would be foolish to even try that strategy and I will have to see how he stacks up with this bunch. If he can close for 4th or 5th, he could be viable next time from a better starting slot.
8 Lets Wait and See has been off a month and draws bad. I will  pass and see if he shows up this time and adds the fitness angle to that.
9 Deetzy  is too pace dependant to think he can dig out of the hole the 9 hole digs him in.
7 Antar Phil has not performed for a while and goes to Carmen from Puddy. I want to see him turn this one. I don't think its going to be that easy. He has a history of dropping the bit.
3 Steves Legacy draws better here, which helps his cause. But he could end up first up, and I can't like him off that trip. If he pylon skims and happens to luck into room,  then he is reasonable.  I can't count on that. Pass for me.
4 Vegilante Hanover is jacked up in class for new connections. He barely outpaced one who came back to run off the gate and be no factor. No shot from  what  I can see with these.
2 Casimir Overdrive is a bit player at best with these.

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