1 Beyombo got a
pretty good steer last time, getting away 4th and staying there,
swinging out in the lane with a clear shot to get 2nd, but he seemed to
be going all he could go and it just wasn't good enough. He looked like a
prospect in the winter, when they were going slower and the better
horses had not come out yet. This race comes up pretty soft relative to
the Classic Pro's and others he has met lately. I still need to see more
but he is possible in with this group.
2 Rock N Fantasy
faced the double edged sword last time. He had the far outside, left
out, but had to take a seat and then stayed in while he had one in front
who wasn't very live, and one beside who was going the wrong way, but
wasn't doing it fast enough. McNair bided his time, and the rail opened
up, allowing him to pace forward and be a solid 3rd to 2 pretty nice
prospects. As the rail was deep and hard to travel around that time, his
race and effort looks pretty good overall. He meets a group here he can
beat, and I'd want about 3-1 to make that value. He won on the front,
breaking his maiden on March 23rd, and McNair is likely to put
him there again. The names of some of the ones that have beaten him
recently, Southwind Diesel, Classic Pro, Stealth Bomber, are pretty
tough customers with high aspirations that he mostly avoids here.
3 Sedona Seelster
is one that fooled me, and I am fully prepared to admit that. Mid
winter, I couldn't see why he was racing at WEG, when he looked like a so-so B track maiden type. That is why Doug Hie is who he is. He saw the
potential for this one to get better as he goes, and he has. He still
has trouble sealing the deal with the better ones he meets in here, but
he has very good tactical gate speed, and he is gradually coming into
his own overall. He is however 1 for 40 over the last two seasons, and
beat a very weak maiden group in the dead of winter to get the one win
he did. I'm not sure at this point he has 52 in him, and that looks like
the speed the winner will go here. Bit player with a minor shot if the
logical ones don't perform.
4 Undrafted has had a
variety of trips, and none of them have resulted in a win or even a
close miss. I see too many options in here to think he steps up and even
if he does, takes them all.
5 Kazimoto gets
Trevor, as J Mac is in the penalty box for two race days. He has
longshot potential for a variety of reasons. First, he gets post 5,
which is a very good leaving post position, and he picks up a driver who
likes to blast when he gets a horse he has not driven before. Secondly,
he took back last time and was not going to gain on the contenders off
that trip. He paced his back half in 55.2, and that seems like a live
enough horse to consider. He was a solid 2nd the start before that when
he got out closer. He is usable as an upset option for the picks.
6 Rebellious reminds
me a lot of Shamballa. Not that he is likely to have to crazy overall
speed that one does when all is said and done, but he came to Zeron as a
project, and Zeron is taking his time and teaching him to be a
racehorse. In start one, he was floated out for position, but he was so
grabby, for safety's sake Zeron had to pull and put him on the front,
where he daylighted that group with ease. Last time, he was taken off
the gate, floated out again, but this time he drove in a more manageable
way, picking up cover, and following it willingly. However, it was
immediately dead cover, he had to go 3 deep on the turn around it, which
he did, and he was digging all the way to the wire. He paced his own
back half in 55.3, wide for most or much of it. I could have listed him
on top, in what was a toss up call, but he is still a bit green and he
is likely to take more money than my top choice. Could be either of
them. I expect this one to progress to be a Gold type colt in a few more
starts. He is on the same cross as Somebeachsomewhere, who is also the
sire of Shamballa. Zeron seems to know what to do with these types to
max out their potential.
7 Face of War loses
McNair, as he sticks with my top choice, but picks up Roy, so he is
still in solid hands. His last mile is troubling though, if you are
playing for a winner here. He gapped the winner badly last time at
Flamboro off a sweet pocket trip, and his back half quarters don't stack
up with the better ones in here. I have to see him compete at this
track, but for tonight, I prefer others.
8 Homey Joe jumps
into the deep end tonight, and has a driver who doesn't drive much, and
post 8 to try it with. However, he did pace London in 56.3 last year,
and that is not to be taken lightly. He looks to be a solid Grassroots
type of horse, but he is not an Ontario Bred. He meets a few in here who
look a notch above that type of class. Pass and watch.
1 Four Card Major raced
on very short rest last time, and as he is not a very sound horse, that
worked against him. As always, he tried hard and he was competitive. He
looked to be showcased then, with a discount and he was sold after the
race to the new connections. Post 1 here will likely doom him to a long
trip again, and in spite of picking up Roy, coming back on more
reasonable rest, and getting back in the softer claiming condition, I
rate him a minor shot. He is likely to be overbet.
2 Lively Freddie takes
a minor class drop here, and Nixon is good at tuning them up and
finding a level to make money with them. His slow starts are a problem
though, and I haven't seen any progress on that front. He did take 3
seconds off his previous race, and that does indicate some progress,
although time can be deceiving as a stand alone factor. He had
interference the start before that, and made a break in his 4yo debut.
He could have hidden form and he paced in 54 over Georgian last year. He
is chancy, but that is the nature of this class as a rule.
3 Cam Engine
didn't race as a colt, but appears to be putting it together as he ages.
Some Camluck's do that. He has the magic Camluck/Artsplace cross, and
his dam, Loving Place, comes from the family of Camtastic, and many
other very good ones. He has some potential built within his genes, and
could blossom as he finds his way. He is starting on this circuit at the
bottom level they offer. Last time, he made a nice post parade
appearance, took back to the tail with a 10 hole start but only got beat
4 lengths at the wire. He is a slow starter, but looks like he could
get away 6th or 7th with this better post. I could see him picking them
all off in his 3rd start to try this class. Upset call.
4 Mammoth Jack seems
to be the type of bit player in this class that wins this class on
nights when its hard to like any short priced horses and he is around
most of the time anyway. I give him a minor shot because of all of that.
His win record is not bad, albeit a B track enhanced record.
5 Rockin Ronnie
makes his 2nd start for Budd for a purse, but maintains the same
connections he has had all along. I recall he needed a lot of
encouragement to go forward in his races last year, and only once did
that play out as a win. He qualified back okay after running at the
start in his Flamboro debut for Budd, and dives into a low conditioned
claimer here. Just another longshot who could win this in a race where
you should be looking for one and forgiving big time flaws, which this
6 Jet Black Cadillac is 1 for more than 50
lifetime, and even with the solid post and looking for something longer
priced to play in this race, this is one I cannot go to. Too many
chances and fails.
7 Badstormanyport picked up 2nd
last time, beating a horrid bunch that were behind him, but nowhere near
the winner, who daylighted the entire field for his first win in many
years. He is likely to take some tote money this time, and he is
possible. He is usable as an option if you want to go deep here, but he
does find ways to lose races.
8 Kwicky Kwanzaa had
post 1 last time, and he didn't race bad. He draws outside here, but
Phil takes him over two others who look viable, and that is a plus. He
is a reasonable longshot that needs a lot of things to go his way, but
might get it done if they do.
9 Oforpetesake got
out near the top from the best post last time and turned that pocket
trip into a win as he just sailed up the rail. Post 9 is a much
different ballgame. I like enough others in here to pass on him.
raced well last time, but wasn't nearly as good as the time before.
Perhaps the bump he got on the trainer change has a shelf life. Post 10
is just about enough reason anyway for me to look elsewhere when he has 1
win in 3 years.
1 Dubious Claim is
a terrible starter, and he doesn't do much once in the race. He is
really up against it here from the rail. I cannot see him under any
2 Shagnwiththedragon qualified well
for McCabe, who sends them out ready, and he made a very nice post
parade appearance last time. However, he stepped on the wheel of the
2nd place finisher and lost the win because of it. None of that was his
fault, and the only knock I would have is he never moved off the rail
until very late. Obvious shot chance, but he is still green and there
are some options here to go against him.
3 Jaydens Place
is a 4yo maiden with 12 3yo starts under his belt. He needed 3
qualifiers to get back racing. I will take a watch and wait attitude
with him this time. He will need to take more time off his performance
before he can tackle some of these.
4 This Is My Song
was the beneficiary of some crashing and banging in the backfield last
time, but to his credit, he made the most of it and got 3rd money, no
threat to the 2 classy ones in front of him. He is hard to like, in that
he is 0 for 16, but also has 3 bad posts in his last 6 lines. He is
possible, but he hasn't contended for the win spot yet. Your call.
5 Casimir Quasimodo
has some breeding behind him, as he is a half brother to Moving
Pictures, Mr Massimo, and Mambo Italiano, all high end winners with big
bankrolls made. He is also a sibling to Casimir Operaqueen, who did
nothing at 2 and 3, but came alive at 4 and was a decent low condition
horse at this track last fall. Joe C has had him all along and he hung
on to him. That says something, as he doesn't normally do that with
horses that don't pay their way. In his return qualifier, he chased 3 top
stakes horses, and couldn't go with them when they kept going at the
end. Not really fair for a green maiden to chase high end stakes horses.
He could be better right off the shelf, so, its a post parade call for
me. If you are concerned he can be a lot more than he shows to date
tonight, just use him and negate the unknown factor in play here.
6 Master the View
didn't win in 11 starts at 2, but he was near the money most nights, and
made the Grassroots final. He qualified back okay, and Jack Darling has
no need to show anybody how fast his horse is when no money is on the
line. He paced in 54 last year and has an experience edge on these.
Minor shot, but not my top pick. Based on his breeding, I have to see
7 Three More Smiles goes 2nd off the
layoff here, in what was a decent first effort for the season. He did
look green trying to go around bad cover in the last turn, then
completely blew that turn on his own, ending up 6 or 7 wide, and then
suffered uncharted interference when there was a jam up right to his
left. He finished okay off all that, but still hung a shade. He won once
in 13 starts at 2, and he had to go to Grand River to get that. He was
kept paid up to the NAC, which is puzzling, but they must think that he
has a lot of talent and upside..or...they smoke crack and just cant
think straight. I'm not sure which, but he has a shot here considering
who his trainer is and the driver steering tonight, who drives him for
the 2nd time in a race and 3rd time overall. He looks like a one brush,
one speed type, and I'm sure Roy has figured that out. He needs to leave
and sit, and hope to score like Bettim Chris did when Roy first drove
him to his win a month ago. One of many to think about here.
8 Hermanus was
one Roy turned down for Three More Smiles. He draws poorly again and
doesn't look like one of the better ones in here. He is taking time to
get it together, and might be better off at Grand River or Georgian when
9 Maverick Joe was a first time
starter last time, and he went to the back, followed from a distance,
and brushed late but was no factor, taking his time down to 56. He draws
bad again, but he might be the type that progresses a bit each start
and then finds the right mix of experience and post improvement. I will
wait and watch.
10 Mckinley gets the 10 hole but
picks up Gingras. He also has a very low percentage trainer, and he also
can be dangerous at times on his own. I cant back him.