Monday, May 22, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 22, 2017


1 Beyombo got a pretty good steer last time, getting away 4th and staying there, swinging out in the lane with a clear shot to get 2nd, but he seemed to be going all he could go and it just wasn't good enough. He looked like a prospect in the winter, when they were going slower and the better horses had not come out yet. This race comes up pretty soft relative to the Classic Pro's and others he has met lately. I still need to see more but he is possible in with this group.

2 Rock N Fantasy faced the double edged sword last time. He had the far outside, left out, but had to take a seat and then stayed in while he had one in front who wasn't very live, and one beside who was going the wrong way, but wasn't doing it fast enough. McNair bided his time, and the rail opened up, allowing him to pace forward and be a solid 3rd to 2 pretty nice prospects. As the rail was deep and hard to travel around that time, his race and effort looks pretty good overall. He meets a group here he can beat, and I'd want about 3-1 to make that value. He won on the front, breaking his maiden on March 23rd, and McNair is likely to put him there again. The names of some of the ones that have beaten him recently, Southwind Diesel, Classic Pro, Stealth Bomber, are pretty tough customers with high aspirations that he mostly avoids here.

3 Sedona Seelster is one that fooled me, and I am fully prepared to admit that. Mid winter, I couldn't see why he was racing at WEG, when he looked like a so-so B track maiden type. That is why Doug Hie is who he is. He saw the potential for this one to get better as he goes, and he has. He still has trouble sealing the deal with the better ones he meets in here, but he has very good tactical gate speed, and he is gradually coming into his own overall. He is however 1 for 40 over the last two seasons, and beat a very weak maiden group in the dead of winter to get the one win he did. I'm not sure at this point he has 52 in him, and that looks like the speed the winner will go here. Bit player with a minor shot if the logical ones don't perform.

4 Undrafted has had a variety of trips, and none of them have resulted in a win or even a close miss. I see too many options in here to think he steps up and even if he does, takes them all.

5 Kazimoto gets Trevor, as J Mac is in the penalty box for two race days. He has longshot potential for a variety of reasons. First, he gets post 5, which is a very good leaving post position, and he picks up a driver who likes to blast when he gets a horse he has not driven before. Secondly, he took back last time and was not going to gain on the contenders off that trip. He paced his back half in 55.2, and that seems like a live enough horse to consider. He was a solid 2nd the start before that when he got out closer. He is usable as an upset option for the picks.

6 Rebellious reminds me a lot of Shamballa. Not that he is likely to have to crazy overall speed that one does when all is said and done, but he came to Zeron as a project, and Zeron is taking his time and teaching him to be a racehorse. In start one, he was floated out for position, but he was so grabby, for safety's sake Zeron had to pull and put him on the front, where he daylighted that group with ease. Last time, he was taken off the gate, floated out again, but this time he drove in a more manageable way, picking up cover, and following it willingly. However, it was immediately dead cover, he had to go 3 deep on the turn around it, which he did, and he was digging all the way to the wire. He paced his own back half in 55.3, wide for most or much of it. I could have listed him on top, in what was a toss up call, but he is still a bit green and he is likely to take more money than my top choice. Could be either of them. I expect this one to progress to be a Gold type colt in a few more starts. He is on the same cross as Somebeachsomewhere, who is also the sire of Shamballa. Zeron seems to know what to do with these types to max out their potential.

7 Face of War loses McNair, as he sticks with my top choice, but picks up Roy, so he is still in solid hands. His last mile is troubling though, if you are playing for a winner here. He gapped the winner badly last time at Flamboro off a sweet pocket trip, and his back half quarters don't stack up with the better ones in here. I have to see him compete at this track, but for tonight, I prefer others.

8 Homey Joe jumps into the deep end tonight, and has a driver who doesn't drive much, and post 8 to try it with. However, he did pace London in 56.3 last year, and that is not to be taken lightly. He looks to be a solid Grassroots type of horse, but he is not an Ontario Bred. He meets a few in here who look a notch above that type of class. Pass and watch.


1 Four Card Major raced on very short rest last time, and as he is not a very sound horse, that worked against him. As always, he tried hard and he was competitive. He looked to be showcased then, with a discount and he was sold after the race to the new connections. Post 1 here will likely doom him to a long trip again, and in spite of picking up Roy, coming back on more reasonable rest, and getting back in the softer claiming condition, I rate him a minor shot. He is likely to be overbet.

2 Lively Freddie takes a minor class drop here, and Nixon is good at tuning them up and finding a level to make money with them. His slow starts are a problem though, and I haven't seen any progress on that front. He did take 3 seconds off his previous race, and that does indicate some progress, although time can be deceiving as a stand alone factor. He had interference the start before that, and made a break in his 4yo debut. He could have hidden form and he paced in 54 over Georgian last year. He is chancy, but that is the nature of this class as a rule.

3 Cam Engine didn't race as a colt, but appears to be putting it together as he ages. Some Camluck's do that. He has the magic Camluck/Artsplace cross, and his dam, Loving Place, comes from the family of Camtastic, and many other very good ones. He has some potential built within his genes, and could blossom as he finds his way. He is starting on this circuit at the bottom level they offer. Last time, he made a nice post parade appearance, took back to the tail with a 10 hole start but only got beat 4 lengths at the wire. He is a slow starter, but looks like he could get away 6th or 7th with this better post. I could see him picking them all off in his 3rd start to try this class. Upset call.

4 Mammoth Jack seems to be the type of bit player in this class that wins this class on nights when its hard to like any short priced horses and he is around most of the time anyway. I give him a minor shot because of all of that. His win record is not bad, albeit a B track enhanced record.

5 Rockin Ronnie makes his 2nd start for Budd for a purse, but maintains the same connections he has had all along. I recall he needed a lot of encouragement to go forward in his races last year, and only once did that play out as a win. He qualified back okay after running at the start in his Flamboro debut for Budd, and dives into a low conditioned claimer here. Just another longshot who could win this in a race where you should be looking for one and forgiving big time flaws, which this one has.

6 Jet Black Cadillac is 1 for more than 50 lifetime, and even with the solid post and looking for something longer priced to play in this race, this is one I cannot go to. Too many chances and fails.

7 Badstormanyport picked up 2nd last time, beating a horrid bunch that were behind him, but nowhere near the winner, who daylighted the entire field for his first win in many years. He is likely to take some tote money this time, and he is possible. He is usable as an option if you want to go deep here, but he does find ways to lose races.

8 Kwicky Kwanzaa had post 1 last time, and he didn't race bad. He draws outside here, but Phil takes him over two others who look viable, and that is a plus. He is a reasonable longshot that needs a lot of things to go his way, but might get it done if they do.

9 Oforpetesake got out near the top from the best post last time and turned that pocket trip into a win as he just sailed up the rail. Post 9 is a much different ballgame. I like enough others in here to pass on him.

10 Meabhrach  raced well last time, but wasn't nearly as good as the time before. Perhaps the bump he got on the trainer change has a shelf life. Post 10 is just about enough reason anyway for me to look elsewhere when he has 1 win in 3 years.


1 Dubious Claim is a terrible starter, and he doesn't do much once in the race. He is really up against it here from the rail. I cannot see him under any circumstances.

2 Shagnwiththedragon qualified well for McCabe, who sends them out ready, and he made a very nice post parade appearance last time. However, he stepped on the wheel of the 2nd place finisher and lost the win because of it. None of that was his fault, and the only knock I would have is he never moved off the rail until very late. Obvious shot chance, but he is still green and there are some options here to go against him.

3 Jaydens Place is a 4yo maiden with 12 3yo starts under his belt. He needed 3 qualifiers to get back racing. I will take a watch and wait attitude with him this time. He will need to take more time off his performance before he can tackle some of these.

4 This Is My Song was the beneficiary of some crashing and banging in the backfield last time, but to his credit, he made the most of it and got 3rd money, no threat to the 2 classy ones in front of him. He is hard to like, in that he is 0 for 16, but also has 3 bad posts in his last 6 lines. He is possible, but he hasn't contended for the win spot yet. Your call.

5 Casimir Quasimodo has some breeding behind him, as he is a half brother to Moving Pictures, Mr Massimo, and Mambo Italiano, all high end winners with big bankrolls made. He is also a sibling to Casimir Operaqueen, who did nothing at 2 and 3, but came alive at 4 and was a decent low condition horse at this track last fall. Joe C has had him all along and he hung on to him. That says something, as he doesn't normally do that with horses that don't pay their way. In his return qualifier, he chased 3 top stakes horses, and couldn't go with them when they kept going at the end. Not really fair for a green maiden to chase high end stakes horses. He could be better right off the shelf, so, its a post parade call for me. If you are concerned he can be a lot more than he shows to date tonight, just use him and negate the unknown factor in play here.

6 Master the View didn't win in 11 starts at 2, but he was near the money most nights, and made the Grassroots final. He qualified back okay, and Jack Darling has no need to show anybody how fast his horse is when no money is on the line. He paced in 54 last year and has an experience edge on these. Minor shot, but not my top pick. Based on his breeding, I have to see him parade.

7 Three More Smiles
goes 2nd off the layoff here, in what was a decent first effort for the season. He did look green trying to go around bad cover in the last turn, then completely blew that turn on his own, ending up 6 or 7 wide, and then suffered uncharted interference when there was a jam up right to his left. He finished okay off all that, but still hung a shade. He won once in 13 starts at 2, and he had to go to Grand River to get that. He was kept paid up to the NAC, which is puzzling, but they must think that he has a lot of talent and upside..or...they smoke crack and just cant think straight. I'm not sure which, but he has a shot here considering who his trainer is and the driver steering tonight, who drives him for the 2nd time in a race and 3rd time overall. He looks like a one brush, one speed type, and I'm sure Roy has figured that out. He needs to leave and sit, and hope to score like Bettim Chris did when Roy first drove him to his win a month ago. One of many to think about here.

8 Hermanus was one Roy turned down for Three More Smiles. He draws poorly again and doesn't look like one of the better ones in here. He is taking time to get it together, and might be better off at Grand River or Georgian when they open.

9 Maverick Joe was a first time starter last time, and he went to the back, followed from a distance, and brushed late but was no factor, taking his time down to 56. He draws bad again, but he might be the type that progresses a bit each start and then finds the right mix of experience and post improvement. I will wait and watch.

10 Mckinley gets the 10 hole but picks up Gingras. He also has a very low percentage trainer, and he also can be dangerous at times on his own. I cant back him.

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