Friday, May 26, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 26, 2017


1 Wasaga Beach has missed 3 weeks now, and returns with first time lasix and Mackenzie driving, as the colony is thin tonight with the action at London. She now drops in class and has had 3 bad posts in a row, one of which she won from anyway. She is usable here if you are looking to go deep, which looks like a good move in this field.

2 Barockey typically shows bad form, which she has for a few weeks, and then pops up and races better without warning. This looks like that type of situation. She isn't reliable, but you can rely on her showing up once every 6 weeks when you thought she was to be discounted. I'm inclined to use her here. Drury does well with her when she shows up ready to compete.

3 Regal Luck beat mediocre types like Hex and Cant Stop last time at Flamboro. She has a lot more trouble at this track when not at the bottom, but she has her good nights here too. Three back she had the 9 hole and had no shot, but the previous two at this level, she was only beat a length and a bit, and was a solid 2nd the time before, with better posts. She can blast from this post and look for another soft trip. Another one to use among many.

4 Pretty Hot is hard to ignore with her current form and all the variables in play. Jason Ryan is both a high percentage driver and trainer, and very potent when he is both on that particular horse. Post 4 is a good post, and she has had 2 9's and 7 in her last 3 races, one of which she won anyway, another she was 2nd after being first over and towing the winner into a perfect trip, then last time she was parked the mile and stayed on for 3rd in very fast time. She is just hard to not like. She has made the ticket in 6 of her last 6, and her consistency and grit are her two best assets. Ryan keeps the tag on her head, so she gets to continue racing with these while performing. Big shot.

5 Topville Cheetah got the perfect steer last time from Roy. She floated out from the rail, which had a long drought before she took care of that, he made sure she maintained position without using her, then tipped as late as he could, then gradually wore down a leader that wanted to be defeated, and simply cleared and opened up. That was a class lower, and while she gets a better post, she is generally not good enough at this level, in a race where there are lots of options and possibilities. I will pass and go to others.

6 Lights Go Out is simply not getting it done a level lower, with a variety of trips and drivers, but picks up enough money that she has to move up here. I can't see her as she has been for weeks. I will need to see something positive that shows me she still has it, and is willing to give it. I will wait for that. She can be real hot and cold over the course of a year.

7 True Reflection is another who got it done with Roy a level lower, but she neither has him here, or races at that level. She has not been dangerous in her last two at this level. Pass.

8 Glamour Seelster has had 3 back now off a very long layoff. She popped at first asking, which was at this level, but was not anywhere near good enough when forced to move up. She did pace very fast back to back quarters in her last race, but she generally does not leave, so she is dependant on a hot pace and decent flow. She has a shot, but she is just one of many here. She seems to get along best with McNair, but he is not here.

9 Bet Ya is another mare who can run hot and cold over an entire year, and when she is hot, she is just short of a solid Preferred mare, but when she is cold, she can even get beat in the bottom class, even though she is a drop and pop specialist. Currently, she is somewhere in between, with flat form and a bad post. Pass for me tonight.

10 Our Hot Majorette is up against it on the class rise and 10 hole start. Another day for her.


1 Sharky Shark was having a lot of trouble grabbing the track last time. He left from post 1, which was noted as deep and heavy around that time, and by the time he hit the backstretch he was losing ground badly. P Mac angled him into a different path, and he picked it back up, then was back towards the inside turning for home, but had to check out of that trap and swing very wide, just missing and moving fastest of all late. However, tonight, he gets a new driver and the rail again. He will be overbet on what everybody saw last time, and I will wait for another day to play him. He appears live, but tonight is probably not his night.

2 Windsun Gotham seems to have hit a level where he might reside for a few weeks. He also loses Sylvain tonight, who is at London, and he looks to be a bit player with these. He did pace a back half in 54.4 last time, so he is progressing and will adapt to these in time. Minor shot tonight, but I like others. Randy is likely to bury him and come late for a minor share.

3 Bet on Brett drew the 7 hole at Flamboro on Sunday night in his first start of the year off 2 qualifiers. He was no match for Frontier Seelster, who was long gone on that entire field. He won a Grassroots last year and was second in a Gold, so he has some class in a field where many are suspect on that front at this point in time. He had two post 1's in both qualifiers, and thus, altogether, he must be considered potentially live if he progresses as his conditioning and experience suggest he will. I can see him being dangerous as a decent longshot option.

4 Rock This Way is a wildly inconsistent type, in that he can pace a huge mile and come right back and spit the bit off what looks to be an easy trip to score off of. Last time, he gave it up completely, and so did his connections with the NAC pipe dream hopes. I don't love him, but he is very capable of turning it right back around. He is highly inbred with Western Hanover on his top line and Modern Art as his dam sire. He is likely to be very fast at times, and totally no good many other nights. Must use, just to negate what he can do to you...which is wipe you out of the picks.

5 Dreamfair Mesa scored at the bottom conditions for non winners when he drew well and got favorable fractions on the front end. Back in with conditioned horses, he hasn't been good enough, although he has had 2 poor posts in a row. He has always been tough to read, and with a good post and an upset specialist in J Mac, I'd have to use him as well in what looks like a wide open race.

6 Mcsinner Man is a new one for Cullen, and he has missed a month now. His last quarter last time is not inspiring and I would think like most that Cullen buys in this manner he will need a start or two to figure out what works with him. Based on how fast they go at Dover and Pocono, he would need to drop a lot of time to compete with many of these. Pass for tonight and keep an eye on him for the right spot.

7 Give Em Back is a full brother to Justabit Mean, and just like her, he rarely wins. He is 5 now, and has 3 lifetime wins. He is puzzling to consider in this spot. I can't see him.

8 Jrs Big Buddy moved into Carmen's barn 3 back, and moved over to Flamboro for more reasonable competition. With post 8 and his current form, and serious class rise, I cannot see him for the win spot.

9 Western Hill paced in 49.3 over Lexington last year chasing some bearcats, for which he was within range of how they were performing. This is his first start of the year, I suppose as a prep for the Somebeachsomewhere and NAC, as he is still paid in to those. His qualifiers are spaced out and he is now 18 days from the last one. I would be inclined to toss him for this start, but I'd probably use him for 20c on any pick just in case he is sorted out. He has a monster class edge on this entire bunch, but that isn't always enough when you are first off a layoff, post 9 and have a driver who has never handled you before.


1 Waasmula loses Trevor tonight, and that is a big difference, as he seems to get the most out of her. She is not impossible, but with the new driver, the post and that she is meeting many who have beaten her lately, I will pass on here here.

2 Wrangler Magic probably needed a start last time, and also drew poorly. She had the 7 hole in the Matchmaker final and got parked to the half, and then faded. Before that, she was fairly solid and beat this group in the winter. I could see her turning it around here, as one of many who will give the 4 a tough go if she wants to keep the ball rolling in this class. Saftic has usually done well with this type of mare in the past. I'd use her in the picks.

3 Wiggle It J has really come alive for Cullen since he has had her, rising from the bottom to the top in 6 starts. This is a stiff test though, and I will have to see her adapt to a deep field of talented ones she has never been measured against. I like others.

4 Sandbetweenurtoes is hard to go against with her very sharp current form and obvious class. However, I will here. They all go down, and there are enough options in this race to think at least will run her down. Risk/reward. She is likely to be a very short price.

5 Bedroomconfessions is a classy mare, with 875k made lifetime. She was razor sharp in the spring, but has tailed off quite a bit into May. She was given a short rest, and qualified back sharply to Lady Shadow 7 days ago. Randy does very well with her and he is not likely to bury her like he does most that look like they might need one. She could be the one to take the 4.

6 Request for Parole just cant quite get there with these, and now the class usually shows 2 or 3 tough options ahead of her, not just 1 like she hit in the winter. This field is deep. I like others more than her.

7 Ms Mac N Cheese tailed off sharply in the winter, as she had raced tough for more than 2 years straight. She appeared spend and worn out. She did still earn though, and now she returns at the highest level. She will drop some money if she just tags along for a couple of starts, and then get to drop when she has some fitness and is fresher. That should be the spot to go to her if she shows she has benefitted from the rest.

8 Much Adoo was very sharp and well driven last time by Trevor, who attacked a soft leader and opened enough daylight to hold off the one challenger who didn't have enough stretch to mow her down. She paced her own back half in 54.2, and is a longshot to consider in this race if you are going deep. This is an obvious big step up, but she was a solid 3rd with these on April 14th, and has done okay with them before.

9 P L Hurricane loses Randy to the 5 and draws bad. She likes to be up close and stay in, pouncing on whatever they give her that night. This doesn't look like that night. She has had 6 straight good posts, and while she has raced great, that flatters her form. Lets see her tackle this bunch from a disadvantage.

No comments:

Post a Comment