1 Wasaga Beach
has missed 3 weeks now, and returns with first time lasix and
Mackenzie driving, as the colony is thin tonight with the action at
London. She now drops in class and has had 3 bad posts in a row, one of
which she won from anyway. She is usable here if you are looking to go
deep, which looks like a good move in this field.
typically shows bad form, which she has for a few weeks, and then pops
up and races better without warning. This looks like that type of
situation. She isn't reliable, but you can rely on her showing up once
every 6 weeks when you thought she was to be discounted. I'm inclined to
use her here. Drury does well with her when she shows up ready to
3 Regal Luck beat mediocre types like Hex
and Cant Stop last time at Flamboro. She has a lot more trouble at this
track when not at the bottom, but she has her good nights here too.
Three back she had the 9 hole and had no shot, but the previous two at
this level, she was only beat a length and a bit, and was a solid 2nd
the time before, with better posts. She can blast from this post and
look for another soft trip. Another one to use among many.
4 Pretty Hot
is hard to ignore with her current form and all the variables in play.
Jason Ryan is both a high percentage driver and trainer, and very potent
when he is both on that particular horse. Post 4 is a good post, and
she has had 2 9's and 7 in her last 3 races, one of which she won
anyway, another she was 2nd after being first over and towing the winner
into a perfect trip, then last time she was parked the mile and stayed
on for 3rd in very fast time. She is just hard to not like. She has made
the ticket in 6 of her last 6, and her consistency and grit are her two
best assets. Ryan keeps the tag on her head, so she gets to continue
racing with these while performing. Big shot.
5 Topville Cheetah
got the perfect steer last time from Roy. She floated out from the
rail, which had a long drought before she took care of that, he made
sure she maintained position without using her, then tipped as late as
he could, then gradually wore down a leader that wanted to be defeated,
and simply cleared and opened up. That was a class lower, and while she
gets a better post, she is generally not good enough at this level, in a
race where there are lots of options and possibilities. I will pass and
go to others.
6 Lights Go Out is simply not
getting it done a level lower, with a variety of trips and drivers, but
picks up enough money that she has to move up here. I can't see her as
she has been for weeks. I will need to see something positive that shows
me she still has it, and is willing to give it. I will wait for that.
She can be real hot and cold over the course of a year.
7 True Reflection
is another who got it done with Roy a level lower, but she neither has
him here, or races at that level. She has not been dangerous in her last
two at this level. Pass.
8 Glamour Seelster has
had 3 back now off a very long layoff. She popped at first asking, which
was at this level, but was not anywhere near good enough when forced to
move up. She did pace very fast back to back quarters in her last race,
but she generally does not leave, so she is dependant on a hot pace and
decent flow. She has a shot, but she is just one of many here. She
seems to get along best with McNair, but he is not here.
9 Bet Ya
is another mare who can run hot and cold over an entire year, and when
she is hot, she is just short of a solid Preferred mare, but when she is
cold, she can even get beat in the bottom class, even though she is a
drop and pop specialist. Currently, she is somewhere in between, with
flat form and a bad post. Pass for me tonight.
10 Our Hot Majorette is up against it on the class rise and 10 hole start. Another day for her.
1 Sharky Shark
was having a lot of trouble grabbing the track last time. He left from
post 1, which was noted as deep and heavy around that time, and by the
time he hit the backstretch he was losing ground badly. P Mac angled him
into a different path, and he picked it back up, then was back towards
the inside turning for home, but had to check out of that trap and swing
very wide, just missing and moving fastest of all late. However,
tonight, he gets a new driver and the rail again. He will be overbet on
what everybody saw last time, and I will wait for another day to play
him. He appears live, but tonight is probably not his night.
2 Windsun Gotham
seems to have hit a level where he might reside for a few weeks. He
also loses Sylvain tonight, who is at London, and he looks to be a bit
player with these. He did pace a back half in 54.4 last time, so he is
progressing and will adapt to these in time. Minor shot tonight, but I
like others. Randy is likely to bury him and come late for a minor
3 Bet on Brett drew the 7 hole at Flamboro
on Sunday night in his first start of the year off 2 qualifiers. He was
no match for Frontier Seelster, who was long gone on that entire field.
He won a Grassroots last year and was second in a Gold, so he has some
class in a field where many are suspect on that front at this point in
time. He had two post 1's in both qualifiers, and thus, altogether, he
must be considered potentially live if he progresses as his conditioning
and experience suggest he will. I can see him being dangerous as a
decent longshot option.
4 Rock This Way is a
wildly inconsistent type, in that he can pace a huge mile and come right
back and spit the bit off what looks to be an easy trip to score off
of. Last time, he gave it up completely, and so did his connections with
the NAC pipe dream hopes. I don't love him, but he is very capable of
turning it right back around. He is highly inbred with Western Hanover
on his top line and Modern Art as his dam sire. He is likely to be very
fast at times, and totally no good many other nights. Must use, just to
negate what he can do to you...which is wipe you out of the picks.
5 Dreamfair Mesa
scored at the bottom conditions for non winners when he drew well and
got favorable fractions on the front end. Back in with conditioned
horses, he hasn't been good enough, although he has had 2 poor posts in a
row. He has always been tough to read, and with a good post and an
upset specialist in J Mac, I'd have to use him as well in what looks
like a wide open race.
6 Mcsinner Man is a new one
for Cullen, and he has missed a month now. His last quarter last time is
not inspiring and I would think like most that Cullen buys in this
manner he will need a start or two to figure out what works with him.
Based on how fast they go at Dover and Pocono, he would need to drop a
lot of time to compete with many of these. Pass for tonight and keep an
eye on him for the right spot.
7 Give Em Back is a
full brother to Justabit Mean, and just like her, he rarely wins. He is 5
now, and has 3 lifetime wins. He is puzzling to consider in this spot. I
can't see him.
8 Jrs Big Buddy moved into Carmen's
barn 3 back, and moved over to Flamboro for more reasonable
competition. With post 8 and his current form, and serious class rise, I
cannot see him for the win spot.
9 Western Hill
paced in 49.3 over Lexington last year chasing some bearcats, for which
he was within range of how they were performing. This is his first start
of the year, I suppose as a prep for the Somebeachsomewhere and NAC, as
he is still paid in to those. His qualifiers are spaced out and he is
now 18 days from the last one. I would be inclined to toss him for this
start, but I'd probably use him for 20c on any pick just in case he is
sorted out. He has a monster class edge on this entire bunch, but that
isn't always enough when you are first off a layoff, post 9 and have a
driver who has never handled you before.
loses Trevor tonight, and that is a big difference, as he seems to get
the most out of her. She is not impossible, but with the new driver, the
post and that she is meeting many who have beaten her lately, I will
pass on here here.
2 Wrangler Magic probably needed
a start last time, and also drew poorly. She had the 7 hole in the
Matchmaker final and got parked to the half, and then faded. Before
that, she was fairly solid and beat this group in the winter. I could
see her turning it around here, as one of many who will give the 4 a
tough go if she wants to keep the ball rolling in this class. Saftic has
usually done well with this type of mare in the past. I'd use her in
3 Wiggle It J has really come alive for
Cullen since he has had her, rising from the bottom to the top in 6
starts. This is a stiff test though, and I will have to see her adapt to
a deep field of talented ones she has never been measured against. I
4 Sandbetweenurtoes is hard to go
against with her very sharp current form and obvious class. However, I
will here. They all go down, and there are enough options in this race
to think at least will run her down. Risk/reward. She is likely to be a
very short price.
5 Bedroomconfessions is a classy
mare, with 875k made lifetime. She was razor sharp in the spring, but
has tailed off quite a bit into May. She was given a short rest, and
qualified back sharply to Lady Shadow 7 days ago. Randy does very well
with her and he is not likely to bury her like he does most that look
like they might need one. She could be the one to take the 4.
6 Request for Parole
just cant quite get there with these, and now the class usually shows 2
or 3 tough options ahead of her, not just 1 like she hit in the winter.
This field is deep. I like others more than her.
7 Ms Mac N Cheese
tailed off sharply in the winter, as she had raced tough for more than 2
years straight. She appeared spend and worn out. She did still earn
though, and now she returns at the highest level. She will drop some
money if she just tags along for a couple of starts, and then get to
drop when she has some fitness and is fresher. That should be the spot
to go to her if she shows she has benefitted from the rest.
8 Much Adoo
was very sharp and well driven last time by Trevor, who attacked a soft
leader and opened enough daylight to hold off the one challenger who
didn't have enough stretch to mow her down. She paced her own back half
in 54.2, and is a longshot to consider in this race if you are going
deep. This is an obvious big step up, but she was a solid 3rd with these
on April 14th, and has done okay with them before.
9 P L Hurricane loses
Randy to the 5 and draws bad. She likes to be up close and stay in,
pouncing on whatever they give her that night. This doesn't look like
that night. She has had 6 straight good posts, and while she has raced
great, that flatters her form. Lets see her tackle this bunch from a