Monday, May 15, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 15, 2017


1 Noble Prize was aimed at some bigger prizes at 2, and bagged 34k along the way, but never won. He parked to make the lead in his qualifier, but went the wrong way from there, trotting a poor back half and not even near the top bunch. Mayotte is a fine horseman and capable enough as a driver, but he is low percentage, the horse has the rail and he has no reason to push him here. I can pass on this one and watch to see if he is making any progress.

2 The Back Nine is a first time starting 3yo by Muscle Mass, and most of those take a while to figure it out. They are generally steady, smart enough, and earn a good buck as they go along. He might be one of those. We shall see. He wasn't even in the ballpark in his qualifier where Noble Prize was well ahead of him. He looks tough to back until you see some experience in his ledger. He is a homebred and I guess these people are patient. They are names I recognize from many years back, so they probably are taking the long term view on this horse, as will I.

3 Holiday Money shows X's all over the page, but being he is handled by Greg Peck, he probably will be thrown into an OSS gold because we just don't see the potential in him that he does. Blair gave up on him. I can't even think of going near him until he shows some talent and can keep his act together over an actual mile. 5 starts into his career, he is 0 for 2 in that regard.

4 Stritch qualified 3 weeks ago but did not race until this start. Warning sign for me. Not the worst thing, but at a 2-1 ML, and his performance last year, I wouldn't be taking a short price on a horse like that. Maybe he was just sick, and they waited. Maybe he was sick and they will race him easy tonight because he has some OSS races coming up. Steacy has been known to operate that way. On paper, he looks solid, dependable, capable and more talented than most of these. Paper doesn't win races. I will have to see him, and of course, he has to be used in a pick 5 play, but, he is likely bad value as a win prospect. Not that that will stop the sheep from getting sheered.

5 Try Try Again looks like the one to me. But first, lets get it right. He was 2nd in his qualifier, beat about 6 lengths in 2:00.3, not 3rd by 15 lengths as charted. He was well in hand and wasn't being asked to do more. He looks like a serious prospect, he has big time connections. From a pedigree perspective, he is bred to be a very good one. His mother, Sweetspellosuccess is a Credit Winner half sister to Marion Marauder, and her dam is Spellbound Hanover, A world champion who has produced a Hambo winner. His dam has produced 2 other foals that were no good at all at 2, but came on at 3. It was probably wise to lay off this one and let him do what he can probably do best, which is mature into himself and earn that way.  As he is still eligible to some big dances as Hamilton has noted, they probably feel that way about him.  Hamilton didn't watch the qualifier, or he would have seen what I did and what Ryan Willis told me he saw. If the 4 takes big money, he could easily take him at a price. He is still a first time starting maiden though, and that can't be lost in the conversation.

6 Hp Run Like Mom is a homebred for her connections, but Ben B has not been able to do much with her. She doesn't appear ready to win at WEG, and she blew up as a 50c on the dollar chalk at Flamboro last time. Back here she comes, but she will have to prove she can do a lot more to get me on board. I will watch. She has some speed, but probably not enough for the best ones in here at this stage. In spite of Hamilton's detailed commentary, she is not a colt, but a filly taking on some colts and one filly who is likely to be the favorite.

7 Spark Business is a 4yo with very few starts, off a very long layoff going for new connections and was far behind my top choice in the qualifier. Based on his breeding, he will have to be seen. He is likely to be a loon. I will look him over in the post parade. He has enough X's on the page to get the win in Tic Tac Toe.

8 Charmbo Chrome made 11 starts at 2, but didn't win. However, he is on his sires best cross, to Angus Hall, and he showed decent speed in the qualifier, and some overall ability in his races last year. He is a viable option to use even from the 8 hole if you think the 4 might not fire tonight and the 5 is not a known quantity to rely on yet. Both of those statements can easily hold water.

9 Archangel Raphael is a 3yo colt that has some breeding on his side, being by Muscle Hill and coming from a female family that included talented ones like Dancers Victory, but also troubling soundness issues, which many Muscle Hill's can also be prone to. This one is a half brother to Lady Dynamite, who shows some flashes of ability. Post 9 tonight, and Zeron is likely to just get him around and build up his confidence and experience. He is not impossible, but I don't want to go deep here, so I would leave him off and take the chance that even if he is going to be something, tonight is not the night.

10 E T Phone Home was mentioned to be a project horse by Durand last fall, a big fumbly trotter with some learning issues. He shows the speed, but, between the horse, the driver, the post and his current suspect form, I can pass and watch.

Here is my overall synopsis of this race. It would be tempting to single the 5 here, but that would also be foolish. I would go 3 deep and overweight the 5 and short the 4 and 8 as backups.


1 Electric Western takes the healthy class drop, and that is very much in his favor. He does that with very good form, which also works for him. He tows Mario B, who is a very low percentage driver (Mario Baillargeon (177-10-12-22-.135) at this stage, and that is a problem. Post 1 is also an issue for a horse that has gate speed when its a good time to use it, and this class would be that time for him. Also note that while he is racing well and dropping at least 2 classes, he was a longshot in every one of those races, so the public viewed him as over his head in every one of those, and rightly so, as he didn't prove them wrong. Last time, he blasted out from the 5 hole, let Randy cut it, who for some strange reason let Phil clear when he was hung and going nowhere and then backed into all of them, including Mario who got left in. When he finally got out, he closed well and wasnt badly beaten by a group who towers over this bunch. He is a must use, but Mario is a little slow off the switch to make moves now, and that can easily get him beat if he cant make front, which post 1 might prohibit him from doing.

2 Ciona Bromach picked up some nice shares in the bottom classes here, and moves up a shade because of that. Last time at Flamboro in the Preferred 3, he was 3 wide on the last turn when the leader was live, the pocket horse was live and first up was the winner. He was also 45-1 from the 2 hole, and he backed up to finish 8th. Trevor took Weller's over him, and while that used to be automatic, it isn't anymore and that one has horrid form and lines. Pass on this one for me until he hits bottom again. He fits nw of 3000l3 at Flamboro if he doesn't earn tonight, and that is likely his next stop.

3 Rockin Finish strangely does not have Trevor aboard, the driver who he won with last time and has a pretty suspect one to drive against him. He does get Roy, but its an odd driver change. He has 528,000 reasons to be able to move up from the bottom off a win, a layoff to keep him fresh, and a weak group to tackle. And a driver who is winning with just about anything live he touches these days. He is also 9 for 32 in the win column over the last two seasons, and has won 37 times, many at a high level. Big shot, but he would have to bring a decent price to be a win play. Easy use in the pick 4 to close it out if you are playing that. With the allowance for the sloppy track last time and his overall past ability (not back class, but back ability), he is in range time wise.

4 Burning Shore dropped last time, but he met Machal Jordon who was also doing that, and MJ is the king of the castle of the drop and pop. He hung in there with him, but was never a threat to haul him down, as none of them were. Roy jumps off him for the 3, and Randy gets back aboard a horse he has driven many times. With his leaving ability, and this post, he could trip out, and we all know Randy loves to do that. I'd have to use him based on that scenario playing out. Over his career, he is a very low percentage winner when he looks like he can win it. Even more reason for Randy to bury him and hope he gets lucky at the right time. Just a side note for Hamilton. He is a gelding, not a mare.

5 Bs Tyrrific has missed a month, and one could argue he has been MIA for much longer than that. He did draw poorly on April 15th, and they did go a big mile, so, he has the potential to have hidden form. That is a big stretch and a very optimistic view, but Trevor lands on him when he probably could have had the drive on the 3. Hmmm. He isn't impossible with this post and his decent win record. If I had one spot left over when my pick 4 ticket was done, I'd add him on the chance he wakes up and others bomb out. Its very pie in the sky, but not like that doesn't happen a lot in this type of class.

6 Mac Raider was sent to Flamboro by Cullen to try and steal some purses while he could, a tactic he wisely uses with the B team when they can't quite cut it at WEG. On his first try, he got up on the wire by a nose in the lower class. Last time, on a sharp move up to the top Preferred level there, with Davis driving, he blasted out like a bat out of hell, made the lead but had to go plenty to keep another in the 2 hole. This horse will begin pulling and wont relax when he is driven that way, and while Davis got the breather on paper, the horse was using energy anyway. Then under attack in the 3rd quarter, he fended that one off, only to get picked up in the lane by 2 of them, and others were right beside him. He is back now, as that class is too tough for him, and he has to face tougher than he was racing last time he was here. The post is in his favor here, for the style he likes, and I suppose that gives him a shot for a longshot upset. Possible use in the picks, but I probably wont. There are enough others in here I do like and he has to beat all of them. I don't see it playing out that way.

7 Hes a Sensation goes 3rd off the shelf, usually a pretty good angle for him, as he seems to go lame and need long layoffs and comes back sounder for a while each time. This time, not as sound. He is getting up there in age, and traditionally he does best right at the bottom, which he has not reached yet. Roy is off, Phil is back on, and he has done very well with this horse over the horses career. Be mindful of that. I'm not sold he is ready to win yet. He had broken equipment last time, but I want to see him compete and he has yet to do that since his return. Pass and watch.

8 Casimir Overdrive was his old self last time. So so leaver, out moving under heavy urging, backing up on the turn, coming back on turning down the lane and going enough to get some money. Post 8 will dig a deeper hole tonight, and he isn't at the bottom either. I prefer others and he has to show me he can do a bit more for the time he reaches the next level down, if that plays out. Pass for me.

9 Weatherly can be fairly effective at the bottom, but he is a low percentage winner as a rule, trip dependent, and not liking parking long ways to do his best. All of that goes against his chances here, when he is not at the bottom, draws the 9 hole, and was going all he could go last time to get 2nd. I will pass and roll the dice against him proving me wrong here.

10 Dalton Did It  dropped in class last time and tried to wire them up from the 4 hole. Things were looking good until the favorite steamrolled him on the turn and said goodbye. He hung in there for a while, but then spit the bit and collapsed. With post 10 tonight in the same class, back of the bus looks likely and brush late for a share and a positive move towards a possible better draw next time. For the 30k they paid, he is not looking like a good investment at this stage.

Here is my overall synopsis of this race. This race is ripe for some kind of illogical longshot to step up and beat a few in here with not terrible form, but reasons to think they can lay down when it matters. I have mentioned which those are, and I'd play both sides of the fence here and use all of them. They are highlighted in pink. 5 deep.


1 Dovuto Hanover has been skating on very thin ice soundness wise for a very long time. I'd say at least 2 years, but it could be longer. To his credit, he tries his heart out. Unfortunately, his legs have little left to give, other than the speed that was bred into him when he was a clean legged yearling. Here he takes another drop in class, but there really is no choice. He is so lame and used up, in my view its just a matter of time before they scrape him off the track and that will be a sad day and sad ending to a very nice horse in his day. Last time, he drew the 9 hole as Cullen tried a lower nw condition, and he attempted to blast off the gate, but first he ran in sideways, then he put in steps. Cullen drove on, and he was hung into the backstretch, where he found a 3 hole. He kept up until the turn, where he was rough gaited (called by Middleton) but no more so than he always is, and then shuffly all through the lane, but still trying and going forward to pace up for 4th money. In spite of his obvious soundness and shelf life issues, I could see someone dipping in and taking him tonight. If that is the case, Cullen will beat the crap out of him and probably use him harder than he should. I can't back him off what I continue to see.

2 Next Thing Smoken travels a lot as Joe C. looks for spots for him to win races, and he can do that because of his location and proximity to all those tracks and his ability to ship here by whatever means he does that. Two trips to Northville have resulted in two wins, and each time he does that, he has to go elsewhere to find a place to compete. Last time that was Hoosier, a place he was very good at a couple of years ago when he raced at the Open level and did well. Note his 1:50.2 win last year there. He is not that horse anymore, clearly, but he can still move around the nw classes and find the right claiming class to be viable if the trip is right. He was 6th of 6 at Hoosier, straight to the back with no gain but he kept up. Now he returns, in a 15k claimer here, which is a drop from the 20k he competed at last time he took a tag at this track, and he picks up J Mac, who does very well with Joe C. He drew the rail and 2 hole when he raced at Woodbine, and both of those were very bad posts over the meet and also around the time he raced there. He ended up with a tough trip in his last Woodbine try, and held his own but faded at the end. He did pace in 52.1, last quarter in 27.1 over Hoosier last time and won parked the mile at Northville, 3 high on last turn, beating among others Cobble Beach, who is not a bad horse for Northville types. He has sneaky good form and a license to be good enough to take these.

3 Cheyenne Ford was claimed for 17k by Johnson and Casie Coleman, but he was not good enough, so they dropped him so that they could get out on him and get another one. Mission accomplished. He beat that group, with a 12k attached, but most were in for 10k and are even suspect at that price. He meets far tougher here, and loses the gas that a Johnson, Allard, and others can provide. I think he is over his head with this group and I will pass on him. Even though he won last time, he still didn't have a lot of interest in going by them. These will give him a fight for that if he even tries. He has been known to quit when that happens.

4 Think Again is now at the earnings point that he can't rely on beating up on conditioned claimers. In with these types twice, he has gotten 5th money. These are likely to go 52 or so, and he has never shown he can beat 53 and change, which is where his lifetime record sits and where he won at last year as well. He seems a second tier type with these, and more viable if it was a 12 to 15 claimer and he drew okay with those. No cheque tonight and he will fit the class that goes in race 11 tonight. Keep an eye on him for that possibility. He is a outsider longshot in with these.

5 Lonewolf Currier is a lot of things. At one time, he was a very high end, very fast stakes horse. He paced in 1:48.3 over a 5/8ths as a 3yo, but he broke down after that, and has never been the same. These days, if you can convince him to try, he is about an 18 claimer, give or take. He also does not like to go onto the track or turn and pace to the gate, so he needs assistance and convincing to do that. That is a sign he isn't really all that interested in his current career options. He is the typical The Panderosa foal, in that his desire can be severely lacking, but his speed is certainly there. As I mentioned in Race 11, Robbie Mac knows value, and knows when to bail and take some profit. He moved his price from 22k to 20k, and that was enough to complete the sale. Hart/Gangell/Friend et al jumped in, and off that race, jacked him up to an optional 30k race, where he met a tough claimer in Musselsforbrussels and a tough conditioned foe in Audreys Dream, and others who soundly trounced him when he made a first over bid to no avail with them. The Katie Gangell era appears to be over and Friend returns and they move him in for 20k, possibly hoping somebody will bail them out. It might happen. He loses Roy, and picks up Phil. While I like and respect Phil's talent and skills, currently, he is a big downgrade from what Roy is doing. Roy takes the Moreau horse here no matter what, but, I have to go elsewhere and pass on this horse tonight.

6 Mckinney seems to like this class, but I think they have written it since his last try with them. That being the case, Ryan took him to Flamboro, where he already races regularly, and did what you do with this one. He blasted out looking for the top, but another was faster away, so he sat a comfy pocket the entire way and had a clear shot at him in the passing lane, but couldn't quite go by, and another took both of them in the 3 path. It was pretty much a blanket finish. He seems to be between classes right now, in that he is okay with these, and viable, even possible, but, he probably a solid 18 to 20 claimer for the win prize, and he is an even better fit in the bottom 3 conditioned nw classes, but he needs to drop 2 lines to get back in there. A victim of his own success. He bears watching and has a shot with these, but he will be all over the bottom types if he gets there and holds his decent current form. Keep an eye on him. Ryan has a very high ROI, both as a trainer, a driver, and a trainer/driver because he brings in a lot of longshots and finds the right trip when he can. He did exactly that 4 back when he took his lifetime record, although I think he has paced faster in the past but not won. I'd have to use him tonight for all the reasons I have mentioned. As a 10-1 ML, he could easily be overlooked in the late pick 4 and wipe out a lot of players.

7 Panedictine goes 2nd off the claim for Fuller, who seems to do well with these types. He jacked him up in class last time and he was no good, making a break and was distanced. I don't like the connections he has gone through, and being that he is always one that looks borderline lame, I am suspicious he will hold up as he travels from barn to barn. Somebody is going to lose the game of musical chairs and eat him. He might get claimed again tonight
and McNair won with him the last two times he drove him for two different barns. His 9 for 49 win record over the last two years is certainly a positive, and many of those were for big odds. Your call. I'd have to see him to make a true call, but if you are playing the pick 4, I'd think he has to be used to cover your ass.

8 Jimmy Be Good is one of those that is good, not good, good, and who the hell knows on any given night. He has always been that way. Moreau has had him for a couple of months now, and he keeps looking for spots to make him profitable considering the kind of things he needs to do and what that costs to race one out of his barn. He tried him twice at Flamboro but he couldn't get the job done, although he bagged 2nd in the top class. Back in at Mohawk, he was a very good 2nd to Lisvinnie last week and fits this class nicely, with the tracks top driver on board again. Moreau and Roy have a positive ROI together, and he is a must use in the picks, but I suspect bad win price value.

Here is my overall synopsis of this race. To me it all hinges on who gets claimed and how they might be raced. If Dovuto Hanover is claimed, he will push the pace and likely set it up for others. I will go on the premise he will get claimed. I see Jimmy Be Good being claimed, and being sent right out, with McKinney going right with him from the best post to leave from on this track. That leaves Dovuto coming at whoever holds the lead down the backside, and any number of others latching on to the flow, and in the end, if Next Thing Smoken is good tonight, J Mac somehow finding a way or seam to beat them all when it matters, which we have seen him to time and again the last few years. I have highlighed in pink which ones I view as uses in a pick 4 play. 

Race 11

1 Shoe Shine loses Fillion to Monte Christo, which isn't surprising as he has weak form anyway, Larocque is more his regular ride, and the way Fillion has been driving lately, not entirely a bad thing. He is still Fillion and has talent, and he will break out of the funk or slump. But, any horse he has driven over the past month or so, especially the suspect ones like this, you have to look at the trips he has given them. He has post 1 tonight, and thats still clearly a negative at Mohawk. Post 1 did not win a race on all 3 cards on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. 0 for 31. He has missed more than 2 weeks now, even though its not hard to get in whenever you want. Last time he had the 8 hole, floated to the back, was following one who wasnt very live, but didnt sit on his lap either, but he did get trapped behind him briefly when he needed out as another came up beside and neither went by or went backwards. When angled out, he did have pace and was going forward, but the pace was picking up sharply. He came a back half of 55.4, which is solid. He has drawn 7 hole or outside in all of his last 4 starts, so, another poor post here, but when he did draw a bit better, he was in the mix but no threat to the winner. The horse is 0 for the last two years, and Saftic is a very low percentage driver at this stage. Very minor shot. I would leave him off the tickets. If he shows some decent pace tonight, and draws 4,5 or 6 next time and back in this class or the bottom, I might use him then.

2 Monte Cristo picks up Fillion upon his return to this track. I have made comments about Fillion's performance as of late in the Shoe Shine commentary. Monte Christo is a well known hanger at this track and even others. He has 4 wins out of his last 44 starts, and the years before don't look any different, possibly even worse. All of those wins came at the B tracks. Last time at Flamboro, he had the 9 hole (the trailer) got away 5th, pulled first up before the 2nd turn, had trouble even getting up to the leader, even though the 2nd quarter was slow, and then began to hang and fade as the pace picked up. He hung in there in the lane to only get beat 3 lengths, but didn't get a cheque. He was also bearing in all the way and noticably on the right line. The bigger oval will help him with that tonight. The longer stretch will hurt him as he is a poor finisher, which is why he does a bit better at the B tracks. Too many options in this race to think he is the one to pick up the pieces when a few of them likely fail. He could be a good one for the lowest non winner class at Grand River when that opens in two weeks if he gets no money tonight, which is very possible.

3 Im the Pied Piper  had to move up last time as he got 2nd money two back, just missing on the line to Koultons Rocket, who makes a good living winning that class. He has had two 10 holes in his last 3 starts and that has done him in. He can leave a little bit, so I would expect Henseley to attempt to do that here, but he is better coming from off the pace with one well timed move, which looks like all he has left at this stage in his career. When Burke had him, he was a top Open horse at tracks like The Meadows and Northfield, but he has been raced out and is clearly on the downside of his career. Most in this class usually are. Cullen moved him to his sister and brother in law 4 back because he couldn't make him go at all. They got him going, but last time, in addition to the 10 hole start, he wasn't even keeping up in soft fractions and Hensely was tattooing him all thru the last turn and into the lane, to no avail as he was not even gaining on the pack, even though they only came home in 29. All signs point to him being overbet tonight on the class drop and better post. I would leave him off the ticket and use that spot for something else. He looks like a 5 claimer now. Hamilton picks him 2nd, even though he made a pretty good case against taking him at all. Just sayin.

4 Ideal Jet went to Flamboro last time, drew the rail and had JJ, in with a very soft bunch in what looked to be an easy score. As many times happens when you train horses and you show up with that in play, something happens and you get nothing. He suffered broken equipment and was pulled up. I had that very thing happen to me at that track once (I forgot my hopples that day, borrowed a pair from a guy I know that was stabled there, didn't check them over and they broke in the race and my horse pulled up as well), then jogged the next week at Kawartha with that horse. That is how the game goes sometimes. No fault to the horse or trainer last time. It happens every now and then. In any event, on the positive side, he dropped a line and gets in with easier here. For this horse, one who looks like he is in contention and moving forward in the lane, only to hang in the last bit before the wire, that is a very big positive. The post is also good for him, as he can leave plenty when asked to, but needs a breather to finish. This post can achieve that. JJ is aboard again, and he has driven him enough to know what to do with him. If you look over his last 5 lines, ignoring the last one where he pulled up, he shows a very fast quarter in his last 2 quarters, mostly in the last one, but a 26.3 3rd quarter in the only one where he didn't have the fast last one. The class drop and the very soft nature of this field make him viable. He is a must use tonight.

5 Southwind Masimo was listed on the SC site for sale and Puddy bought him and raced him first time last start. Unfortunately, he drew the 10 hole and also moved up in class. He had zero shot, and was beat by many, including the sharp winner who has serious ability and doubled up against better on Saturday night.
In terms of how he performed, he did follow the gate okay and was leaving smooth, but when Trevor took hold of him, he threw in a step or two, and he had to hold him to his gait. (He also seemed to do that the start before when J Mac took a light hold of him behind the gate). He also ran in badly in the stretch at least once last time, but when not doing that, he was going forward at the end, like he always does. I would look for some equipment changes, possibly a tighter hopple and maybe some headgear adjustment. That was the first time Trevor drove him that I know of, and he will know him well enough to leave with all the variables in mind.
That was his 3rd bad post in a row, and tonight he gets the 5 hole, statistically one of the two best posts at this track. He also managed to get 2nd twice in a row from the 8 hole, both in this class or the one below, once making a gate break, the other time flying up from the backfield and pacing his own back half in 55.1 to nab 2nd when the winner was on a front end mission and long gone. He meets that horse again tonight (Sports Lightning) on the drop, but he is very hot and cold, and right now, ice cold. Masimo is only 3 for 37 over the last two years, and has been known to hang badly in the stretch when he raced in the States, even on the nights he looked live and in good form as he does now. That is something to consider. He has new connections now though, and that can change a horses attitude and racing style. He is in the mix, and one to use, but he is beatable enough and not reliable in my eyes. "His 2016/2017 boxscore isn’t terribly encouraging but make no mistake about it, he does know
how to win races; he’s 33-for-159 (20.7%) lifetime."
That is a valid point Hamilton makes in the Journal. Or it would be if it was correct. Which it is not. He has 7 lifetime wins, which is right on the program page.

6 Chief Talkalot has all the right variables in his favor. He has post 6, which is the right post to have in a field like this, or any field at this track for that matter. He has a high percentage trainer in Robbie MacMillan, who I was stabled with for a couple of years. Robbie knows how to get one going, classify them to make money, and then move on to another when they are in need of that. He is hanging on to this one, and he has clearly improved in his care if you look at his lines before he got him, which are now off the page. J Mac has been aboard him in all his starts on the page, and now knows him. The horse doesn't always leave, but he can, as shown by his April 3rd line when he had the 9 hole at Woodbine and was 3 wide in a first quarter of 25.4 and yet still finished 3rd in 52.4 to a daylight winner who on his best day was an Open horse. He consistently paces miles in 52 or 53, which is just about right for this class. He isn't making a class move here, but clearly this race is easier than last time, as Spinfiniti and Shadow Place would both be heavy faves in with this bunch off their last races. In that last race, J Mac took him off the gate although the horse wanted to leave, and that was a wise move considering the wicked pace, got him 3rd over, but he just wasn't good enough, although he tried hard right to the wire and did keep going forward. An effort like that again, being more forwardly placed should be enough.  Under that race, he was chasing Jins Shark, a horse who has moved back up an dominated the Preferred. He was 2nd 3 back off a back end trip and clearly has good form. Hamilton doesnt even list him in his to 5, but to me, he is the one to beat. Not a single for sure, but he is one you would have to have. J Mac and Robbie Mac have a positive ROI together. That can't be ignored.

7 Who Doesnt has drawn post 7 and outside in his last 3 starts, and taken way back each time. I see no reason he doesn't do that again. To his credit last time, he did lay off 15 at the half and closed to get 2nd, in a back half that was only a minute flat. That was one level below this, which while a very minor difference, is something to a horse like this who doesn't win often at the big track. He has needed to go to Flamboro to get all 3 of his wins since he returned from his Alberta base with Cullen. He is a 38 time winner, but many of those came in Alberta. He just seems a shade short of winning form at this track. Next winter he is probably more viable for that consideration when they slow up about 2 or 3 seconds. I'm sure he will have a solid summer going over to Grand River and some of the other B tracks and beating up on those when he fits the conditions, as he did at Flamboro on April 16th. Not with these for me. I will leave him off the tickets and roll the dice.

8 Sports Lightning is one of those types you see in this class every now and then. On his best day, he could blast out and daylight them, and then outstagger them with the big cushion in his back pocket. Which is exactly what he did when Roy blasted him out, wanted a hole but the horse wouldn't rate, so he just drove on and kept going. Right after that, he returned to his no try ways and terrible finishes. He can be a bit of both of those types on any given night. Post 8 tonight, with quite a few inside him who will also want to blast does not favor him here. He made a bid for the lead last time on the last turn, but it was short lived and not even close to being dangerous. When that happens, he will stop like he hit a brick wall backed up with another brick wall to make sure there are no designs to do otherwise. He is dropping in class, and if Drury were to try and send him out on a mission, I doubt he completes that mission tonight, but he could take a few passengers into the ditch with him. I will roll the dice against him tonight based on too many negatives I see.

9 Surprise Hanover had Fillion listed, but obviously there was no way he was going to take him, so he picks up Roy. Not the worst trade that could have played out. This is his 3rd bad post in a row, and he seems to not leave a step when that happens. Roy is a smart kid. I doubt he is going to alter that on this horse, who is well known as one who wins very rarely, even from good posts. He did pace back half in 54 flat 2 races back, and if, and only if, there was some kind of crazy speed battle and he was in a live flow, with another contender pinned in while he got the jump on them, he is possible. Being that Roy seems to fall into those trips, he is a use if you want to go deep here. I'd certainly trade Im The Pied Piper's spot on the ticket for him if you are looking to make that call. He is a longshot, but not a "no shot".

10 Par Intended goes 2nd off the claim for Lee, and gets a lot of class relief, but he drew the short end of the post position stick. That is his 3rd bad post in a row, and he was also in with some very tough customers relative to these last time. He seems to take right back to last when he draws like this, and its hard to see him passing the entire field when he is likely to have a lot of road trouble with the hangers on the last turn pushing him very wide and losing both ground and momentum doing that. He is not impossible, but he is up against it.

Here is my overall synopsis of this race. Ideal Jet and Chief Talkalot are both likely to blast out, and one of those two should be cutting it, likely Chief Talkalot. Shoe Shine is hard to see being any factor, and should stay in most of the way, while Monte Christo will do the same and look to find a seam late to see what he can get. Im The Pied Piper is likely to be in the flow, possibly first up, depending on what Southwind Masimo does. I could see that one trying to make a brush to the top just after the quarter. Does he clear? Do they hang him? If they do, who is on his back? Who is on that ones back? I would think in that scenario, it is being set up for one of the two on the front, or one of either Surprise Hanover or Par Intended, both at a very big price.

No comments:

Post a Comment