Saturday, May 20, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: May 20, 2017

 Race 2
1 Stuck In My Spanks kept it together last time, but that was about all she did and she was not in the picture when the other 3 ahead of her were battling for the win. Post 1 will hurt one like her who has issues going to the gate. I suppose she has a minor shot for the top 2 positions, if, she behaves, the flow tows her, and the heavy fave bombs out. That is a lot to count on.
2 Paradise Image tried to wire them last time, but she couldn't take them all the way. She is learning, maturing and improving, but maybe she is about a month or two from getting there, and she is in a position where she needs to be that horse now. I like others better, for now, but she looks like a prospect as the summer progresses.

3 Magic Presto needs only to get a clean trip, show up, and be herself. She has 2 seconds on this entire field, and the fear factor that most don't want to try her and lose their shot at a big 2nd money prize. She trots, she should win this easy. I'd think she is 1-9 when the bell rings.
4 Mrstery Bear is a fast leaver and she will follow well. That gives her every chance to get as much as she can. She will need others to run or not perform to do any better than 3rd, and she is no cinch for that. I'd think she is in play if you want to take a shot against the bridgejumper that will be betting big dollars to place on the 3. Being able to leave and get ahead of any trouble that might happen is a strong plus in these types of races.

5 Expose Yourself
is a very aggressive filly, as you can see by her race lines, and mostly the 2nd last one at London. Last time, she was trying to leave a ton, so much so Henry had to keep her under control so that she didn't over trot herself and run. She settled into the 2 hole, but couldn't go on with the classier ones she met then, and meets again. I don't know that she can beat 57 at this point and might be the type that is a half mile track specialist who goes 57 there and gets rewarded for that, but comes back here and gets nothing for the same speed.
6 Gravitator was well prepped by Blais, and well driven by Roy last time. Post 1 start, he just laid off, found the flow, which was poor, came out around that late when he had his spot sewn up for the final, mowed down the leader, but the pocket horse got a jump on him. She figures obviously, but, in these types of races, horses that figure don't always get it done when they get ambitious and tackle more vigorously the strong favorite. I will play that somehow she battles and comes up short. Minor use for the place position, but I like others for the price in that spot.

7 Royal Witch sat out of it last time, but moved late to be a clear 2nd to the classy winner she had no intention of bothering with. She won the race she was there to win, which was clearly 2nd best. She did look better than most of the ones who raced in the other division, so, she has a shot to pick up 2nd money here, and even win if something goes wrong with Magic Presto. She is still a maiden, but she doesn't act like it. She seems to have her breaking issues from last year sorted out.
8 Anikadabra was solid at 2, but has not come back as good yet. Post 8 here, and she barely made the final. Pass for me until I see her step up her game to this level of competition. I'm not even certain she dominates the Grassroots if she goes back to that class looking for wins.

9 Tymal Reign is an 8 time maiden who was clearly raced last week to make the final, and she did just that, getting 3rd money while not any kind of threat to the top 2. She had post 1 last time, so her effort was good all things considered, but post 9 here in with all the ones she couldn't handle and a few more live ones from the other split. She is hard to like for the ticket.
10 Holiday Promise was in the flow last time, following the winner, but she dropped off sharply when the real racing started to take place. Post 10 here, and she looks impossible and is hoping for 5th money, which is a longshot. Others are taking their time below 57, she seems to have hit a wall at that number.

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