Thursday, March 2, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 2, 2017


2 Dream of Luck left out, locked in last time. He looks very logical to take this bunch.
7 Twice Drafted took back, saved ground, came late with pace. He is progressing.
1 Devils Peak coming along, one of a few who are possible.
3 Southwind Savage still a maiden. These don't look soft enough to change that status.
6 Itsaboutmachintime looks like a B track horse to me, but has some longshot potential if you are looking for that.
4 Vinnie Bobarino bombed out last time. Doesn't show the last quarter speed you need at this track.
5 Born to Cruise looks far off this bunch at this point. He will have to show he has more.


4 Dobee is still risky, as most young trotters are, but she has come back to the races steadier, at least to this point. I'd watch the post parade to see that she is as she appears. If so, she looks to have a slight edge over this bunch.

6 Pingaling appears to be nothing special, but he isn't meeting any future Mack Lobell's in this bunch either. Its not a stretch to think he goes the same mile he has been, and maybe slightly more, and that is good enough to win by attrition. I rate him a shot only on that premise.

5 Dear Dad is the ML choice, and I suppose that is possible, but unlikely with his performance to this point. He was left parked out last time, by choice of the driver/trainer and left to go his own mile. He looks suspect on the turns and like he will run if asked to go any more than he does. He kept at it last time and that is mostly due to Vanderkamp's skill. At some point he might develop and become steadier, but I don't see that as imminent. He is a half brother to Cash For Gold, and VK took his sweet time bringing him along to have him end up what he has become. I don't see why he would alter that here either.

1 Road Light has good gate speed, but little to no finish. That might play with this bunch, but she is still chancy to seal the deal. She threw in the odd extra step last time as well and bears in enough to suggest the miles are wearing on her, something her breeding would also suggest. I can go to others for the better predicted price and leave her off any tickets.

3 Blameitonthewhisky comes back to the races after 2 qualifiers, but loses P Mac to another and picks up JJ. He is young and well bred, so I suppose he is a long term project for his owner/trainer, but tonight he will have to start showing more overall speed to get my attention for next time.

7 Real World Goal would do well to get around clean and pick up a small cheque, beating the ones that don't behave. I can't see anything more for this one from what he has shown in previous tries.

2 Royal Intrigue shows nothing to suggest she is viable even if she stays flat, which is no cinch either. I have to pass.

4 Homegrown Honey blew by a stopping leader in her qualifier, but nonetheless, she did it. There are two questions here. First, is she being raced to win? We all know Randy will race them easy when they are young and learning. That is a concern. Assuming he is racing to win tonight, can she take 2 or 3 seconds off the qualifier right off the bat? I would use her in the pick 5, and I will list her on top, as I'm not sold on Alexas Luck.

8 Lotus Seelster goes to Moreau, and picks up Fillion. She was competitive in a Grassroots last year and the type of speed you need looks to be there. I will play her with the Moreau angle in play.

3 Alexas Luck went a good trip last time, but the winner was able to step up the speed in the lane and that was enough to hold her off. She is bred to be a good one and seems like she will be a decent Grassroots filly this year, maybe even a Gold if she progresses like some do that start up in the winter for experience. For tonight, she is the logical top choice, but others can take her and I will go to them over her. She has been short odds in all 4 tries and had legit shots to win those, but has not. That is troubling.

9 Heather Loves Ny came very late last time but was no threat to the top 2. Post 9 means she likely has a far way to come again. 
5 Roselily is possible with the gradual improvement, but the driver is an issue and one race doesn't make a horse. She looks like bottom of the ticket material for now.

1 Northern Lauren adapted well in her first trip back to the big track, but while she sat a stalking 3rd, she was no match at all for the top 2 and couldn't hold off the 3rd horse, who she meets again. She now fits, but will have to do a lot more to win.
6 Kimberlys Baby doesn't look like much stock to me, and a small piece is possible if she actually can race the entire mile this time. Pass for the win.

7 Erosha is coming off 2 breaks at the start in her last two races for money. Trevor got her around in the qualifier, but she was far back of two she meets again here. She will need a clean line and show a lot more speed doing it to get me to consider her for next time.


Good luck if you want to sort out this bunch who look unsortable to me. I don't.


2 Shoe Shine solid form, claimed twice in a row, big trip last week. Major contender.
6 Evasive Card Shark comes in off a win, has improved with lasix. In with a shot if the trip works out.
8 Don Mcwhite was very hard used to make the lead last time, in hot fractions, and he gave it up. He is possible with a soft bunch if he gets an easier trip and returns to the solid form he had at times last year in the States.
5 Monte Cristo slow starter, stretch hanger, outside shot, as he shows up about once every 3 months.
1 Counter Strike got away last at Flamboro from the 3 hole, made one move, hung. Hard to like.
9 Sierra Madre picks up Roy as JJ goes to the 2. Post 9 should do in his win chances, but he can pick up a slice.
3 Hidden Potential his win record and form speak volumes.
4 Doing Some Damage off the claim, raced Sunday, cant see him with these.
7 Rockabella I see nothing to recommend him.
10 Mr Irresistible hard to justify on form and post.


8 Zorgwijk Rocket earned good money picking up shares at 2, but only won once, so he gets to start back with a soft crew that are barely winners themselves. If the intent is there tonight, he could win right off the shelf. Two qualifiers means he is probably tighter than the average layoff horse.
10 Tour De Lindy would be very hard to take, moving up and drawing the 10 hole, if this were not such a soft field, and he is coming off a win and a solid 2nd. He is playable for a price.

5 Gold Medal Swan draws much better here than the first two tries at this track and that could be enough. He could be a lot braver if gets the lead earlier and doesn't have to go around others.

1 Summit City Turbo raced hard to win on Monday night, but the pocket sitter picked him up in the lane. He was double entered from that, but has to race with these on short rest. I will pass.

3 Vasco Bi leaves big gaps in his races and that is a concern. His last line stacks up well with this bunch, but he must be as is, and that is questionable. I will go against him.

7 Little Stuie is fairly steady, and would be a dangerous maiden at this track if he could race against those. Unfortunately for him, he won at the B's when he was younger. He is just short of winning form at this track with winners.

2 True Muscle has not been competitive for a long time and I cant use her for the ticket until she turns it around.

4 Shestherealthing fooled them once when she had a really good night and everything went in her favor. Otherwise, she has been a clear also ran every time she races. I can't back her against winners.

9 Rose Run Reanna has been on the wrong track since late in her 2yo year and has not yet shown she is righting the ship.

6 Andovers Choice is not one I can back. He broke the maiden, but appears not capable of doing more against winners at this track. I suspect he is looking for a new home in upstate New York before the frost breaks.


5 Jrs Big Buddy has adapted well to this track over the winter, and his gate speed is a big plus. He also has the right driver for that job. Big shot.

3 Windsun Gotham doubled up on maidens, but now takes a steep rise, although this is a soft bunch for this class as a rule. I wasn't overly impressed with the horse that finished 2nd to him last time, he was suspect on Monday also, and he had trouble shaking him in the lane. I think he is a bad favorite if he goes off as such.

1 Blue Fox hung badly last time and stopped to a walk in the lane. He is inconsistent and can turn it around, but I like others who show more and do it more often.

7 Red Dog Saloon was pretty good at times last year, but other times he was rat city. I dont think he did enough at Flamboro to list him on the ticket. He might step up in the weeks to come. I'd be watching him for signs.

2 Fancourt is a very lightly raced 4yo and has shown those issues on the track if you watch him move. Until I see him sounder and race in a steadier manor, I will pass on him.

8 Clouseau Hanover looks like the type that could live in this class for a long time. Post and his weak winning form are enough for me to discount him tonight. He will find a level at some point.

4 The Roadies packed it in last time and meets one that went by him, and others who have decent form. I will pass on him. He beat up on some very weak stock at the Meadows when he was there.

6 Lyons Delight has missed almost 5 weeks and he wasn't very racey before that. I think he is overmatched with this type. He couldn't even handle maidens.

9 Bugatti went backwards on Saturday night, something he has a habit of doing. Roy takes over as Fillion sticks with the better prospect. He is impossible to see and 5-1 ML is crazy. He is at least 30-1 in my book.

10 New Standard shows nothing to suggest he isnt in the wrong race. Post 10 to boot. Toss.


pass on this bunch.


pass on this bunch too.

No comments:

Post a Comment