Friday, March 3, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 3, 2017


5 Donna Party tried to leave last week, could not get there, and there were no holes. She drove on, but was mostly in the road. She will just back up when that happens, but come right back next week and be viable if the trip works out. You can be sure Trevor will have the sword up and he is blasting to get the lead or a comfy 2 hole. If she achieves that, she is certainly capable of beating the 6. Hard to find another who shows much to go with otherwise.

1 Mystical Wonder was 2nd over last week, tipped wide around poor cover, but the winner was on her back and blew right by her, and then reeled in the runaway leader. She did keep coming, and she is possible in a weak bunch where anything close the week before can turn the tables the next week.

4 Total Knockout is the type that wins races like this when the front enders battle and set it up for a closer who can show up every now and then and pass staggering ones. Longshot chance if all that happens.

6 Case Dismissed mowed down a runaway leader last week, but she isn't always so racy and is more likely to stop as she did in previous weeks. The party was last week and this week is more likely to be the funeral to those who hop on her chalky favorite train. I will look for 1 or 2 who figure but will bring better odds because she popped last week. She is likely to make the ticket, but I list 3 win candidates to go to in the pick 5, and completely leave her off for that play.

7 Watt a Funny Face was the early leader last time but backed through them and beat nobody. Hard to like her and think Trevor is going to make the lead and let her go. She could however, run him and set it up for others.

2 Darktwistedfantasy was a hot commodity last year, but tailed off sharply in the winter, and still shows little to suggest she can finish with these types. Its an interesting rise, when 6500 looks like the right fit.

3 Phoenician Gal stayed in last week, and was being chased to keep up, but split horses late as they staggered home and picked up 3rd. She doesn't seem to have more to offer than that. I will go to others for the upset.


7 Greystone Ladylike is the type that really benefits from a class drop like this, especially when she draws a post that keeps her up close or in the race to the half. She is one of a few I can see taking this field down. I'd want 4-1 to make her a solid win play.

9 Voodoo Charm moves back down, but skipped this level on the way up. Post 9 and another come from behind try, I don't think she picks these off as easily as she did 2 back, when it was a very soft field. She is possible if they battle and she doesn't have horrid cover to get around. That is a lot to count on.

8 Kiwi Focus N is generally a pretty gritty and tough mare, but she appears to lost her good form and now is on the downward class move. That didn't help last time and she was given an extra week off. She is dangerous enough, but I will go to others with better current form. She is likely to turn it around in a few weeks.

3 Shezarealdeal had every chance to win last time but couldn't pace away or shake the eventual winner. She seems to lack the grit needed and last week was evidence of that. I will pick others to go to and roll the dice against her finding a way.

5 Lights Go Out raced okay last week, but picked up 4th money, and that forces her to move up a level. Based on her current form, that is not good for me. Pass.

1 Drivingthedragon N can leave fast, but going all the way at this level seems beyond her. She probably needs to hit bottom to get back in the win column. I will wait for that class drop.

2 Miss Coco Luck stays at the same level, and had no pace when it mattered last week. I still think she will need to hit bottom to be win worthy.

4 Onyourmarknatava seems one level above where she is dangerous and that showed last week and the week before. I will pass until I see something that changes my mind.

6 Barockey  was completely outpaced last time and backed up sharply. She might be viable one class down, but will have to drop some money to do so. I will wait for that move to make a call against her, if that is the case. I don't ever play her, but I wont go against her either if she looks like the one. She doesn't in here, for sure.


 8 Mia Oh My has beat these once, and been 2 lengths off the winner last time with a post 9 back of the bus start in between those. She looks very playable considering the soft nature of the competition. My memory of this filly family is that they start late in their careers but progress quickly and benefit from not being tossed into the fire at 2.

1 Dancing Shadows K has had 2 decent efforts at this level, sandwiched around a 10 hole start where she ended up first up at 65-1. She looks to be very viable, and one of a few who get it done for a decent price.

4 Evangelin Seelster showed flashes of talent last year, but also showed the trouble that caused her to make breaks and be shut down in the middle of stakes season. She will have to be seen, but is possible if she has come back sounder and ready to race. Her qualifier suggests she is, as she kicked home with good speed to indicate readiness.

2 On the Minute Mark just missed last week, and her last two have been reasonably good. However, she has 1 win  from 25 starts, and thus, is a mare that broke her maiden and has been stalled at this level since. I will take my shot against her and the other possible fave.

3 I Wish You Well has now missed a month with a vet scratch sick. She beat these once, but most times does not have what it takes to go all the way to the wire. If she draws favorite status, as the ML suggests, I will be happy to go against her. 

6 Shooteronbye moves out of the claimer, where she wasn't getting it done, and into the nw2 condition, which is a mixed bag where its not that much tougher. She has not shown she can start well though, and that is an issue for the win spot. I will watch. She looks like a bit player.

9 Life Groove is likely to be in a deep hole from this post and I'm not sure she can overcome that. I will play others.

7 Mach Majorette is another slow starter who aims at conditions tonight and ditches a claimer. She looks in very deep considering her overall performance. A straight 8 claimer looks like the better spot to me.

10 Itsallabouthebass came off the shelf last time without lasix, went around, took her time back down, but now draws the 10 hole. Another day maybe. Can't see her overcoming this post, and she would have been iffy even from a good post.

5 Ok Jewel  shows B track speed to this point, and will have to prove she can offer more. I will pass for tonight and see if she belongs. The jury is out.


4 Wrangler Magic didnt get to race last week, but draws well here, can leave a ton and draws the red hot Roy. I will go to her and play that the 5 either comes too late or gets hung up in traffic.

 7 Sayitall Bb did all she could last time but the fractions went against her and she was 2nd best. She has upset potential here, as many do.

3 Bernadette takes her first shot at the top class, as she is 4 now and will have to tackle the best around when she does well, as she has for many starts. I rate her an outside shot, but there are at least 3 in here who have tackled the top rung for a long time and won. She will have to prove she can handle all of them at once. I say she makes the ticket, but 2 of them beat her...for now.

5 Sandbetweenurtoes as has been her history, she will miss time and then come back, race easy, and then fire the following time. I expect a big effort from her here, and also a short price, and while I expect her to be right there, she can arrive too late, and I will play for that angle.

6 Waasmula gained easy control last time and just stepped it up from the over. Not going to be that easy this time. She is very good right now, but also finds ways to lose when you think she is rock solid.

2 Dazzling Rockette has admirably won her way up to the tough class. I think she is a bit player.

1 P L Hurricane meets the full compliment of Preferred mares here. Pass for me.

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