Thursday, March 9, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: March 9, 2017


1 Lotus Seelster moved first up into a fast 3rd quarter (for this class) and was rebuffed by the well meant easy winner. She didn't entirely fade, and that was a decent first start for Moreau. I'm sure Fillion has learned with her she needs to save some ground and energy for the one limited move she appears to have. This field is not deep, and I will go to her on top instead of the obvious second time starter.

3 Homegrown Honey was solid in her first try with racehorses. She left alertly, stayed in and waited until mid stretch, where she came out and was clearly 2nd best but going forward. However, she had every chance to slide out much earlier, and Randy chose to stay in longer. She has yet to rough it and work for it, like most winners have to do. She figures and will be a very short price here. I will call her for 2nd and go to one who got a bad trip last time.

4 Connie Mach is an aged mare with 2 lifetime wins, one of them being at Mohawk in straight nw2 last year. She has clearly hit a wall with those, but luckily there is a shortage of horses this time of year, and maidens on this night, so, she gets major class relief here. That doesn't make her the winner here, as her current form is very poor and her overall time isnt that much better than the better ones in this field. But, she has won in 53, so she has a license to be rated higher than some others. Minor shot on the variables.

6 Ok Jewel gets out of nw2 and back in with maidens, which should be a big help to one who has won twice, but only at B tracks. I'm still not thrilled with her, as she looks like a one big move and done type. I will go to others who currently look better.

7 Heather Loves Ny doesn't appear to have much gate speed, and comes very late. That gets her pieces, but she isn't live enough to pass them all with one big move from far back. She also continually bears in the entire mile, which compromises her momentum when she begins to build it. I will go to others.

2 Kimberlys Baby tried to leave last time but the hole wasn't there, so she took back for a tuck and finished with pace up the pylons. She at least stayed at it this time. I have to see more for the win slot to back her, but she is possible to make the bottom of the ticket if one of me top 2 bomb out for whatever reason.

5 Lady Sherri looks like a B track horse until she proves otherwise, which to this point, she has not.


3 Total Knockout improved last week, and while you never know what you will get from her, she is capable enough if she can hold that form. Kelly is not here, so JJ takes over. Top call for a price.

7 Case Dismissed goes to Moreau off the claim and he jams her right back in. This is the fit for her class wise, but her slow starting, one big late move style, while effective for her to be close, leaves her at the mercy of the pace, which could be moderate here. First up didn't work out well at all for her 3 back. I will call her 2nd, too late again.

6 Alexas Hope picks up Roy, so, that is an angle to consider here. He can wake one up...and she needs to be woken up. She does just enough to be dangerous but rarely enough to back that up with a win. Her win record reflects that. I will call her on the bottom of the ticket.

2 Donna Party got the right trip last time, getting out fast to the 2 hole, and pulling that pocket before the leader stopped as the backfield was moving up to close the lane. She did back up briefly on the turn, as she is want to do, but once she straightens up, if she has not been used hard, she will go forward at this level. I will play others. She doesn't double up often.
5 Hex righted the ship last time on the class dive and moves back up to face tougher here. She is a player, but I like others who show more. I could see adding her to the pick 5, but I will roll the dice against her.

4 Phoenician Gal does not do enough for me when it matters. Bit player as a rule, and I will stick with that assessment as I have for weeks until she proves me wrong. So far, she has not.

1 Three Pink Bows does well at the B tracks, but the class rise at this track seems too much for her. Pass for me.


6 Zorgwijk Rocket was raced easy by Hudon in his first start back at 3. He is obviously being aimed at the Sire Stakes, and will make what he can until they start up. He drew poorly last week, but raced okay and finished going forward, if not just steady. I will take a shot with him on top for a likely big price. The talent looks to be there.

3 Man of Destiny meets a similar bunch to last time, with a few different names. As expected, he wasn't able to boss around more talented types when he exited the maidens last time. He raced okay, but he will have to do more here. I thought Per was protecting him the way he drove him, and Randy did the same. They are telling you this horse needs some babying to be viable. Until I see something to contradict that, I list him for 2nd, as I can't find anything at all I like other than my top choice. He could develop into a decent condition horse over time if he progresses, but it looks like a gradual thing, not immediate.

5 Dear Dad blasted out, daylighted a very bad field, and kept it together last week to break his maiden. These are far tougher. He doesn't show me he is ready to beat them. I will watch to see how he stacks up.

7 Summit City Turbo was raced on 3 days rest and that didn't go well for him last time. He finds it hard to win off any trip, but has improved. I suspect he is looking at a claiming tag soon if he doesn't beat these. I like others ahead of him tonight.

9 Asterix can leave fast, and goes as far as that will take him. Post 9 tonight, I would figure he is spent by the last turn if he tries to wire them.

4 Willie Wonka won a grassroots for McIntosh last year, which is the bulk of what he made, and otherwise made breaks. He was moved out of the barn and now Keith Jones takes over. Jones is very capable with this type and brings them along slowly. He needs a lot more speed to go with some of these, and I will watch for that and how he travels in this, his first start back.

1 Rose Run Reanna gets a better post on start 2 back off the layoff. Her win record, and in fact her overall record speak for themselves. I will wait to see a bit more.

2 Carmens Fluke made the races at 2, bagged 18k for that achievement, and won at Buffalo. The reality is with those, is that if you can race and behave, you make some money. He will have to do a lot more at this track against others who race without that protection. He has recently switched from Allard to Paul Cameron and looks like a project horse. Pass for now.

8 Magic Missions is a 4yo with one lifetime win at Clinton. Post 8 tonight, he is hard to see as viable.


2 Red Dog Saloon stayed in last week and was caught in heavy traffic. These are ripe to be taken, and he has a shot to do that if he gets a similar trip to last week but racing room materializes.

4 Emptythetill had the 10 hole last time, but raced well to be a decent 3rd. The winner was far beyond his and the rest of the fields reach, but he seems to be around the money when the wire comes each time. I could see him, like I could see many in here.

6 Passport to Art broke his maiden off the shelf, as Wallace is known to do, and while he has missed 3 weeks, that wouldn't concern me with any Wallace trainee. What does concern me is that he didn't perform well in nw2 off the move up from the maiden. He made a big 3rd quarter move then, but petered out when that bullet was fired. I think he is viable in the next few starts, but if the more conservative approach is applied tonight, with an eye to the future and his aspirations for the season, he comes too late tonight. McNair and Wallace have a very high ROI together, much of that due to Easy Lover Hanover, but not just a win record, actual return, which indicates he is a good fit with all of his stock. Easy Lover came from the same connections to these connections, and didn't seem to wake up until McNair started driving him.

3 Bugatti tried a very aggressive approach last week, and it cost him late. He was certainly better than I thought he was going to be, and his leaving ability, coupled with the better post makes him dangerous here. He would do well to leave and follow a live helmet. If that happens, he has a minor shot.

5 Blue Fox seems to like, and does his best racing from well off the pace. No reason to change that here, and if he finds a live flow, he is a contender. I went to others who will bring a better price, as he is not that much better than them most nights. He could make me pay for leaving him off.

1 Get Decked got the job done last time, but it wasn't pretty. Both Beyombo and Undrafted raced okay but didn't do enough in their next start, and I'm not that impressed with this horse. I think the move up to winners stalls his progress.

7 Clouseau Hanover doesn't show me the finish he needs to take these down. Pass and watch for now.

8 Jrs Big Buddy had every chance to win last week off a nice trip behind battling leaders, came out around them and then opened up a bit, but was winded late and picked up on the wire. That was his chance. This field is tougher and deeper. Pass.


pass on this bunch. Good luck. Note that Joshua My Boy goes back to Allard, but not via a claim.


5 Weslynn Dancer made a break in her lone start for a purse, but kept it together in both qualifiers. Being a Bax pupil, I will give her some slack and call her for the win, with the obvious risk attached in this type of race.

8 Spot in the Sun is very hard to like, but in terms of this field, not as hard as some. She has some excuses, and has at least trotted clean a few times and gone 2 minutes. I could make a very unconvincing case that she is possible if 6 or 7 things go her way here.

9 Forte has been a winter project for Per, and he might have him figured out. Being who he is, and the suspect nature of this entire field, I'd expect him to take big play from the 9 hole. There are still lots of ways this one can get beat, and I will play for that chance.

1 Bustingattheseams didnt make it at 2, and begins her career here. Post 1 for a green trotter, I have to pass and watch. Randy would do well to get her around, lop some time off and pick up money, going forward late.

7 Road Light still has no finish, and while she has more experience, very good gate speed and has earned in this class, she has not won and has had ample chance to do so. I will hang my hat on the suspect longshots in this race.

2 Real World Goal kept trotting last time, and as one of seven in that race, he got 4th ahead of some who didn't behave and one that stopped and has a history of doing that. I see no progress to suggest he can do more than that.

10 Royal Intrigue was a decent 3rd last time, but post 10 should negate the chance for even that here. Another day maybe.

3 Travel Lightly another that didn't make it at 2, and barely qualified last time. No thanks.

4 Queen Adjala is a 5yo with two career B track wins, coming off a layoff of 5 weeks. She will have to be seen.

6 For a Reason shows no speed to suggest she can keep up with whoever is the viable one in here.


2 On the Minute Mark slid out in the lane and closed nicely to be a competitive 4th. I will call her tonight with this weak group to get a more aggressive Trevor steer and pull a minor upset. She is no cinch, but could be value if she brings 4-1.

3 Queen Ideal got 2nd in the Town Pro final, and that jumps off this page. She also has not raced since that race, and that also gets your attention. I will have to see her parade. Being that it is the first leg of the late pick 4, you get that look before you have to place that wager. Otherwise, I have no clue, but am inclined to think she can take these right off the shelf.

7 Dancing Shadows K never left the pylons from start to finish last time, but the red sea parted and she just had to keep pacing to get 2nd, which to her credit, she did. I will go to another here, but she is possible as she is fairly consistent and a good fit for this class until the better ones come out of hibernation.

6 Mia Oh My made the lead from post 8 last week, had an easy lead but let the favorite, and winner, go, followed her, but was gapping, and was outpaced in the lane, barely holding 3rd under a lot of urging. I think she has limited ability and while she is viable and has a shot, I like others who show a bit more.

4 I Wish You Well still does not impress me, and she will have to prove me wrong. She doesn't do enough when it matters, no matter the trip she gets. Pass.

5 Alexas Luck got the soft half last time, and that was all it took to step away in the lane. We will have to see how she progresses now without maiden protection. I cant see her doubling up on first asking with these.

1 A Mary Can Sting has missed a month, was a vet scratch lame last week, and has suspect Meadows form. I will have to see her once to see if she is viable for next time. I doubt it.


pass on this group.


5 Stealth Bomber clearly lays over this field and will be 1-9 with a large bridgejumper attached if they leave show betting up. He would have to be horrid to get beat here.

2 New Standard does not leave, even from good posts. That has been his history since day one. In this smaller field, if he were to get away 4th or 5th, and move at the right time, he can be 2nd best to the obvious winner on the page.

4 Twice Drafted tried to wire a weak and light bunch, but the pocket sitter measured him and easily floated by him late. He is progressing, but meets a bearcat in the making tonight, and isn't a cinch for 2nd either.

1 Go Like a Pro raced at 2, but clearly was not ready to. Big Bad John foals can fool you, as you see many of them show you some talent, but not race up to it. He is well short on time in this race, and lets see what he brings to the table going forward for the weeks to come. He could easily be a solid beat at London in the coming weeks.

6 Silversmith looks like the second rung of this field, but can bag 4th if things go right. He has 3 lifetime wins but gets in with maidens, although most are not actually maidens.

7 Sedona Seelster closed with the pack on Monday to get 5th money, but that appears to be the best he can do at this track. He could end up winning a lot of races at KD this summer, and that is probably why he is being kept around.

3 Lyons Delight shows me nothing to suggest he competes with these.


1 Weatherly drops down in class and looks very tough on the page, picking up Trevor and pacing in 52 or faster every week. Horses like this seem to get beat a lot in classes like this, but he is hard to go against. The scratch of Mach Messier gives him a better chance of control, but also a chance he gets trapped in if Mac Raider now gets to cut it. Lukewarm top call and the price is likely to be short.

7 Luke and Duke won this class 3 back and McNair seems to know what makes him tick. He will need some battling up front, which he is likely to get, and some outer flow to progress with, which is possible. He has a shot to make it happen if the lane he is in carries him to the right spot.

2 K D Overdrive was up late for 3rd last time, but no threat to the top 2. He has improved a bit, but not enough for me to go to him for the win.

6 Mac Raider was involved in some speed battling last time and he gave it up late. He has competition again for that type of trip. I go to others. He needs the trip to be in his favor, and I don't see that working out for him tonight. 
10 Big Petes Style is one post really hurts and he drew that short straw tonight. He could be 4th or 5th, but I cant rate him higher.

9 Imsporty starts very slowly, unless you gas him out of there, which Zeron tried a few times and he stopped to a walk. So, he is the one trick pony now, and that results in his poor win record now that he is away from the conditioned claimers. Post 9, even farther back at the start. Pass. 

4 Print Media showed flashes of decent ability at 2 and 3, but even then, he didn't bring it week to week, and he has continued to be that type. I'm just not impressed with him when there are some other okay ones in here, and he would need some grit to take them down, something he rarely shows.

5 Terra Cotta Lad is not one I can see with the class he brings to the table and lack of speed he has shown in the recent past. Dover is a highway, and he paced that in 54. That isn't enough for me to think he takes down pacers pacing in the 52 or 53 range currently.

8 A and C Artist ships in looking to upset the apple cart as he did last time he was here, in this class as well. He made a break on Sunday night at Rideau, and that is not good form to show up with here. I will stay away from him.

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