When I first started going to the races, the harness races, I had this crazy idea. It went like this.
I
noticed that most of the horses that won on the first few nights I went
had the fastest last quarter on the program page. When I say most
that won, I mean most that won that I bet to win. I was locked onto
that, and I made the leap that this was the most important angle. So,
when I would get the program for the next card, I circled who had the
fastest last quarter, and who had the slowest ones. Whoever had the
fastest one, that is who I bet. And if they had the fastest overall mile
time, I might bet that one too.
As Dr Phil says. How's that workin for ya?
Well,
as you can guess, it didn't work. It took me a year at least until I
figured out there was more to a race than just the fastest horse, or the
fastest closer. In the meantime, I lost races I would surely win today
with what I know.
What
is it I know? The fastest horse doesn't always win the race, there are
many reasons it can lose and others can win. Its a factor to consider.
Speed wins races. That only makes sense. But, fast cars only go fast if
they aren't in a traffic jam, or, have a flat tire, or run out of gas
while the slower car saved some gas for the entire journey. Again, that
is just common sense. Speed wins races, it doesn't win every race.
Similarly, good jockeys win races. Many races. But, they don't win every race, and they don't always win when you think they should. Sometimes they don't have the best horse, other times they ride a poor race, and other times, any number of things can happen to get that horse beat.
Do
jockeys matter? Of course they matter. They control the horse from the
time they mount them in the walking ring to the time they pull them up
after the race, and every moment in between. Every decision they make
contributes to victory or defeat. To say otherwise indicates a lack of
understanding of racing horses.
But you know what else indicates that? Saying they are the most important factor. They are not. You know why?
Because there is not just one important factor. There are several at any one time.
Trainers
matter. Breeding matters. Class matters. Fitness matters. Trip and pace
of the race matters. And most of all, speed matters.
No
matter how good the jockey is, how sharp and skilled the trainer is,
how much class relief the horse is getting, if the horse is not fast
enough, or in some cases, not sound enough to use that speed to full
advantage, the horse will not win.
There is a saying on backstretches. It goes something like this:
The
jockey can't win the race with the horse, but he can lose it. In other
words, he can get max performance out of the horse, but most jockeys
that get to a level at any track aren't that much better than the other 7
or 8 guys they race against every race. In fact, they aren't that much
better than the next 20 guys either. Sure, they are slightly better and
can make a difference. But, even the top guys, a bad ride, a bad
decision, a miscalculated rating of the horse, that can get them beat.
Some would argue Stewart Elliot did that with Smarty Jones in the
Belmont. I wouldn't. I think the horse just couldn't go that distance.
But, could a higher level jockey have nursed him to that win? I suppose.
We wont know that because it can't happen now.
At
the end of the day, everything matters. All factors matter. Its a very
poor bettor who locks onto just one factor and ignores all the rest, or
most of the rest, or any of the rest that are relevant to the entirety
of the race.
A
race is a big puzzle. The one who puts the puzzle together correctly
wins the money. The one who puts more puzzles together than the guy who
happens to get one or two puzzles right wins more often. Anybody can get
lucky and throw the pieces of the puzzle on the table and have them
fall together by accident a few times. Its the guy who sorts them one by
one, with no luck or chance that wins the most often. And when doing
that, that person considers all the pieces and how they fit together. As well, many races are complex puzzles, and no one factor will solve them. But the more complex, the bigger return if you can figure it out. Anybody can figure out a 1-9 shot is going to win unless he falls down or breaks down. That is not a puzzle. And the jockey likely doesn't matter. Those are not the races we speak about in a blog like this.
There
are many factors in complex races. If I put this piece with that one, what is left? If I
start at this end of the puzzle and put a few different sections
together separately, will that give me greater insight on the pieces
that are left that are tricky to fit together?
If
I solve just one part, is that enough to finish the puzzle? If I only
consider the jockeys, do the horses and trainers and conditions even
matter?
Well, do they?
Of course they do. Here is why.
If
they didn't matter any simpleton could do it, and pick the winners. The
price would be so low that the profit and value would eventually be
negated. If it was that easy to only consider one factor, or say just
the jockeys, any idiot could do that. If the highest percentage jockey
wins the most races, then he will get bet to the highest degree and the
price wont bring return over time when it doesn't work out that way. Put
another way, if the jockey wins 30 percent, which is very high, that
means he still loses 70% of the time. Or, 7 times out of 10, he is going
to lose. That is 7 winners you can get if you figure out who is winning
those races when that jockey isn't winning those races. Some will be
won by other high percentage jockeys. A few will be won by other jockeys
on the pecking order. Usually, there will be some kind of price value
attached to that winner, as the public will latch on to the high
percentage jockey, and in many cases, trainer, and also probably
excellent form and overall speed of some horses they ride. That is because those types of horses
do win many of those races. But not all of them. Or even a majority. It
just seems that they do. They win more than the average horse, or
jockey, or trainer, but not the majority.
If
you are a 300 hitter in baseball, which is considered top notch, you
are going to make an out 7 times out of 10. Fail, 7 out of 10 times.
Now,
what it really boils down to is being consistent, but not being too
rigid. If you truly believe that your system works and will bring you
ROI, then play it that way. Prove it works. To yourself, and to others.
If you are so rigid that you think only one thing matters, but you still
make a profit of some sort, I would suggest you are not making as much
as you would have if you had considered all the factors. If you are okay
with that, then go with it.
Most
successful bettors don't see it that way. They consider all the relevant factors, and they
have a system. There are few that have the same exact system. We can
learn from all the players who play the way they do. I study the losers,
and I see what they do wrong. I listen to the winners, and see what
they do consistently right. I have unique skills which I rely on and
give me an edge, in addition to the basics I have an understanding of
and others do as well. I am always looking to learn what others know,
what they have figured out, and why it works. But most of all, I want
proof. Statistical proof that it works that is significant to the
standards we all learned in year one of University if you took that
course. If you can show me that, you have my attention. If you make a
strong case, back it up with results and sound logic, I am more than
willing to give you the proper credit for what you do.
But,
if you are just going to yap and sound like a yapper, with no facts,
and no real system or ability to solve puzzles, you will be discounted
as nothing more than what you are...which is....all talk and no results.
In
a race, you have a horse, a trainer and a jockey. And then 8 to 10
others all with those same variables, and other variables that you might
consider. They all matter. Everything matters. Figure out what matters
most in that race, and then make your call. If you just consider one
variable, you are very likely to lose over time. Just like I did when I
only considered fastest overall final quarter speed. That was foolish.
Don't be foolish.
As
I go forward, any race I make picks in will only be done if I think I
am beating the favorite. Will I beat them all? Of course not, and I do
not expect to. But, I know the percentages. Favorites win about 40% at
WEG, and less than even money favorites win about 55%. That leaves a lot
of room to beat them, and as well, I can't just beat 60% of favorites
and 45% of less than even money shots. I have to do better than what
others can with those to derive a profit over time. That is what I
attempt to do, and I will list on each blog, starting with this one,
where I am at on that. If
I think the favorite has a very legit shot to win, then I pass the
race. If I think I can beat that favorite, but can't reasonably come up
with value plays below him or her within the number of picks in that
race I deem the right formula, I still pass the race. By my count, that
leaves me somewhere between 5 and 6 races a night to make plays from.
Some nights that might be 9 races, other nights it could be 2 races.
RACE 1
Alexas
Hopelooks solid in here. She was locked in last time and looked to be
very live. These are soft, she will draw a fairly short price, and I
wouldn't go against her. I wouldn't single her either, but its not easy
to find one or two behind her to pick from. Pass on the race for me.
RACE 2
7 Ohello
Blue Chip showed flashes of speed at 2, and was aimed
at some better
prospects at times. She comes off the shelf here, and with Drury. I will
take a shot with her on top, but in reality, I could see any of my top 3
as the one to take down American Sara, if that plays out as I suspect
it could. She has missed a month, and that is troubling, but I will take
my chances she has been trained in the interim. 5 Stonebridge Honey
has gone 3 qualifiers now for Hudon, each one better than the one
before. Hudon is old school, and that is the way you like to see it
done. She is a filly prepped and ready to race. I generally don't like
to play first time starters at this track unless they look like top
stakes colts that tower over a field. I don't see many other places to
land in this race if you are going against the obvious chalk, which I
intend to do. She could easily use that gate speed and be sitting on
American Sara's back turning for home, and that makes her very
dangerous. Not my top call, but she is possible and I'd use her in the
exotic horizontals.
6 Two Sides of Loveshowed
a decent progression to get her first win, and was first or second 5
out of 6 at 2, twice however not getting it done at very short odds.
That is not her fault though, as its a reflection of bettors who
expected more of her at that stage than she was ready to give. Now,
after a short rest, she is back off one qualifier at Flamboro. She might
need one, but a 57.2 back half at Flamboro suggests she could just be
ready to go off that effort. Another to use if you are going against the
chalk.
2 American
Sara broke her maiden in her 2nd start. The 2nd and 3rd place finishers
have both come back to break their maidens, both fairly impressively.
In that race, Fillion looked like he wanted to sit a pocket trip, but
she was very grabby and he had to pull her and cut it. She also bore in
badly coming out of the last turn, being completely inside one pylon and
hitting another. In any event, she dug in and fought off the pocket
sitter. She seems to have some future upside, but she has young horse
holes at this stage. She gets another shot at this class, but missing 3
weeks plus is a red flag to me. She still probably brings a short price,
and I will take my shot against her.
4 Roselily
has 2 under her belt now, and looks to me to be a filly with a bright
future. She travels well and is willing when asked to pace faster. Last
time she took a tuck, stayed in, took a shuffle and had to keep edging
up, checking mildly, then angling to go forward. Either her driver is
not able to drive at race speed with the pros at this track, or he is
just teaching her and being safe, but in either case, it doesn't matter.
It adds up to poor value at this stage when she is not a bombs away
type. I keep watching, and I might latch on to her at some point, if
some of the variables change.
1 Double Down Jo
qualified over 3 weeks ago, but then came up sick for her career
debut. In that qualifier, she stopped badly in the lane. Perhaps it was a
sign she was getting sick, and that played out right after that. In any
event, she did come home poorly and the one that beat her has not
really impressed to this point. I will watch her once to see what she
brings to the table. It could be 2 or 3 starts before we see what that
is.
3 Northern Lauren won a couple of times at the
B tracks, but at this track she has trouble going the last quarter the
way the better ones do, even off easy trips. She barely raced until this
year, and appears to have multiple issues that cost her at the big
track when she needs max performance to achieve. I will pass on her.
RACE 3
7 Bustingattheseams
went the mile you would expect last time, and one I expected to see.
Leave a bit, get around, go forward at the end, take the time down and
get experience. Back half in 59.1. Will she go forward? I have no idea.
She could, and she will get some play. Shifting from post 1 to post 7 is
a plus. I will add her to the mix of possible ones.
6 Travel Lightly stayed trotting last time and took his time down. Just another one of
many who could step up...or blow up. Only one of them has to step up.
The rest could blow up and you won't care. He shows consistent good back
half speed in his last two. Post 2 has been horrendously bad for any
horse to leave or win with the last 6 or 7 cards. In fact, its 1 for 73.
This is a much better post. That is a consideration. That is good
enough for me to add him among the other suspect ones.
2 Majestic Marvelraced
with trotting hopples at 2, but made breaks anyway and was shut down.
He qualified without them, but ran in the race and now has qualified
again, with them back on. He shows flashes of fast quarters at times,
and while he is extremely chancy, he is worth playing if you think the
favorites in this one have enough issues to look behind them. I do, and
this is one I would add with a shot if he pops into gear and figures it
out. He could also easily be up in the air and distanced.
4 King of Magic
has missed 5 weeks now and has a low percentage, infrequent WEG driver.
He does have one thing in his favor: from a good post like this, he can
leave fast and get the kind of trip that avoids the traffic and
breakers that do many of these in. His performance overall is not good
enough, and his finish is suspect. A couple of times, he has been near
the money anyway in spite of that. He has also won a real race, and in
pretty good time for Flamboro. He is another that is usable, but not
reliable.
3 Forte
drew the 8 hole last week and that cost him a bit. He did stay trotting
this time and was in the mix. His last quarters are still consistently
slow, and that is a concern. He might develop speed and steadiness as he
goes, but getting that combo at the same time in the same race is Per's
task. One he is up to I'm sure, but it's a process and that can take
time. He is an Ontario bred, so I'm sure the goal is to have him sorted
out when the Sire Stakes start, so he can earn against softer
competition overall. At this stage, Per seems careful to not put him in a
position to take a hard hold of him, and he might be one of those hot
Angus Hall's you don't want getting any ideas that he can be the boss of
you out there. I keep my eye on this one as he goes.
5 Dobee
seems to be progressing. On the positive side of the ledger, she is
finishing well and keeping her gait under control. Part of that is the
way P Mac is driving her and managing her, and he is well known to be
very good with young trotters, which is one reason why Bax goes to him
with many of those. On the flip side, she needs to be floated away slow
to keep her steady, and while she seems willing enough, she bears in
sharply at times, even cranking her head, which is not a big deal if you
are getting a price on her, but not something you want to accept if you
get odds-on like last time, and a short enough price this time. The
field was wafer thin last time, and although she passed those very
easily she was no threat to the winner, not really gaining on him while
the last quarter of the race was very slow. I like others for now. I
will watch to see if her issues resolve. They seem to with Bax trainees
and you can get the long price if you wait for that sweet spot.
8 Road Light
at first glance, as I touched on yesterday in a blog, she appears to be
a professional maiden in the works. However, last time she was mowed
down by what appears a very legit green horse, who will be on to bigger
and better things. It wasn't a bad effort, and she could once again get
out on top and control things. I don't like her tonight, but she shows
slight improvement, and I will keep my eyes and mind open on her. On the
right night, with the right group and trip, she could be a value price
play.
9 Blameitonthewhisky left out last time but
was bearing in badly in the turn and blew up coming out of it. Post 9
tonight and there are some leavers inside of him. He appears to have
some ability, but has not put it all together yet. When he leaves, he
tries to go all he can go and stops like he did in the qualifier to get
ready for another try. I will watch. There is something there, but the
setup is not good tonight for him. Pass on him as an include. 1 Jayport Sport was
tried early at 2, but was making breaks consistently and shut down. He
has kept it together twice upon return, one in a qualifier where he had
early interference but stayed to task, and then in a real race at
Flamboro where he did again and bagged 2nd. He needs more speed now. I'm
sure that will come, but post 1 for a green trotter who has issues with
a driver who isn't a top guy would lead me to take a wait and see
attitude.
10 Royal Intrigue
is marginal to begin with, and draws another bad post, which she has
shown not able to handle. I can't use her with all the strikes against
her tonight.
RACE 4
8 Gillys Boy
broke his maiden February 9th as a 13-1 longshot. He was on the move
last time, and when I say on the move, he was flying, but made a wild
speed break. It looks like he hit himself up front and almost went down.
Fillion caught him and kept him going, but he was mostly in the road
from there, and all over the track in the stretch. He appeared to bear
in and hook wheels with the leader. In spite of all that, he still paced
in 55. He comes right back on 10 days and hopefully, with some
adjustment. I would keep my eye on the changes to see what Brethour
tries. Shot in with this bunch if he can keep it together and use his
speed to his advantage, not disadvantage. He is a big rangy type, and as
Cams Card Sharks go, he reminds me a bit of Four Starrrz Shark, who had
big ability as well but took time to come to it and be able to control
it.
9 Lawrencetown Beachis
a full brother to Melmerby Beach. If you recall that horse, the
connections were very high on him as a colt, aiming him at the NA Cup
and some other big dances. He did show that type of raw ability, but was
prone to making breaks, as this sibling appears to be as well. I would
think P Mac takes the careful, sensible approach tonight and keeps him
pacing, only moving late on natural ability. Could that be enough to
take this bunch? It looks like it could when you look them over, but I'd
only add him to the exotics if you have extra room, and otherwise I'd
roll the dice against it being tonight for him. He needs to be watched
closely to try and time when he clicks in and delivers on his apparent
potential.
6 Bettor Jin
is a 3yo first time starter who comes in off one qualifier, where he
did little but brush late. That is all he is required to do, and I'd be
fairly certain there is lots more to work with. His half brother Jins
Shark impressed me the first time I saw him at Mohawk, and their dam was
a topnotch solid mare in her day. He came a back half in 57.2. I can
use him and think he is very possible right out of the box. McNair
sticks with Hermanus, and that is curious, but I still like the chances
of this one.
3 Go Like a Pro
has a license to have a shot. He drew the rail last time, and has 1's
and 2's on almost all his lines. He knocked his time down to 55.4 last
week, and while he didn't do much, he did that. Second off the shelf,
better overall post, decent connections, suspect probable contenders, I
can see where he is one to stick with on the chance he steps up and they
step back.
2 Hermanus
goes for his 3rd start back and McNair sticks to him when he appears to
have had a viable option to go with. He has established he can pace a
solid 55 mile, even slightly better the time before, but can he go
forward and get near 54? I'm sure he can as he comes along, but he would
need to tonight to probably win this race if the weather holds to what
it looks like it will. I have enough options in this one that I will
leave him off the exotics. Your call. If you think you have room, he is
one to add. I'd certainly play him if my choice is Undrafted or him. I
am leaving both off.
7 Undrafted was
on top at the half last time, in soft overall speed, and turned for
home with the lead. He had a first up horse all over the track, blocking
traffic and hindering a live one who came right back this week and
blitzed a similar group to this. All of that was not enough to get him
to the wire. He was interfered with in the stretch, and that could be a
reason to give him an excuse. J Mac has now given him two legit chances
to win with very good steers and he has been outpaced by others. He
could simply be developing, but I will go against him here and try
others. He has to show me some grit and finish.
1 Mckinley
can be terribly ugly gaited and even dangerous at times, but JJ got him
around in the qualifier with a big, fast 3rd quarter move. Lets see how
he stacks up for next time. Not tonight for me.
4 Secures Jetstream
needed 3 practice runs to get back to the races. He doesn't show
anywhere near the speed of most of these, and based on his breeding (
Jeremes Jet onto a The Panderosa dam) I am skeptical he is much stock.
Lets see how that plays out. Adams has the gas, but you still need an
engine to make a car go fast.
5 Southwind Savage
will race for the 4th time in 14 days, and second time off very short
rest. He didn't look sound at all parading on Monday, but raced okay. I
like others and can't see him taking down a few of these. He will have
to prove me wrong.
RACE 5
I will pass on these. Got
to pick your spots and this one doesn't look like a good spot to try and
get value. I do have my eye on Weslynn Dancer and Zorgwijk Rocket, so I
will be watching them closely.
RACE 6
Another race I
will pass on. Mixed bag that can go many ways. Take your shot if you
think you can find something. I don't see it.
RACE 7
7 Weatherly is an angle play for me tonight. Sure, he is
the ML choice, at 3-1, and I'd hope to get close to that. 5-2 would be
the lowest I'm willing to go, and even that is pushing it. I am of the
opinion that the night he raced, post 1 and post 2 for any leaver was a
big disadvantage, and few from those even tried it. Of the ones that
did, he was one, and the energy he expended to leave, and then retake,
cost him late, as he collapsed near the tote board. He has never been
the grittiest type, but that was flat out a poor result and poor effort.
I can give him a pass and give him a potentially valid excuse to bounce
right back up from. He isn't meeting Cam Fella here. I won't take a
penny less than 5-2 to find out though.
3 Counter Strike
was shrewdly taken to Flamboro last time by Cullen, who took the 3k
first money, put it in his pocket and comes back here to face the same
bunch he was a "one of many" type before that. He beat the usual also
ran types we see in this class here, being Dredyl Hanover and Blue Chip
Sunshine, and whoever was behind them. These are tougher, but Cullen has
showed me he can turn a mediocre form horse and get them going again
within reasonable time. If my top choice bombs again, he is a viable
option with his confidence restored. The winner of his race 2 back
daylighted and bottomed out the field in crazy time, so the amount of
lengths he got beat that night is deceptive. He did give up ticket
money, but that was partly because he was chasing that one in vain. We
often see those types come back better when they don't work so hard in
the middle of a race. Like he did last time.
4 Hidden Potential
is 1 for his last 42, and if I looked up his 2015 performance, I recall
it wasn't any prettier. Lets be frank: he shows no grit, and any reason
to give it up late, he will do that. Luckily for him, he is among
friends here. These are so bad, I could make a case this is his night to
have a shot if my top 2 both decide they don't feel like working for it
tonight either when others come to them. J Mac seems to win with this
kind every now and then. He is possible, but needs others to hand it to
him. If you go back far enough, he has won this class at boxcar odds at
least once, and possibly twice. Every dog has his day, and so does every
rat.
5 Shoe Shine clearly was missing something
last time on the move to Heard from Johnson. He was all done at the
quarter and JJ eased up on him wisely. He came right back on 7 days and
paced a decent 56 mile, behind an old class horse who qualifies great
when he is forced to do that and a FFA bearcat from earlier in the
winter. Another option if you don't like my top 2. I'd only be willing
to go 3 deep here, so I'd use the 4 over him. His trainer is 0 for 24
this year and has never been high percentage. That is the tie breaker
for me.
6 Koultons Rocket comes back to this track
at the lower level he won at when last he won a race. He also draws the
right post for the style he likes. He is also 4 for 50, or an 8% winner.
I have to make choices here. I will go against him. He has competition
for the front, and he isn't the type that works for it and wins many
doing it. His 55 mile at Flamboro 2 back certainly stacks up here, so he
isn't a toss if you want to go deep here.
1 Big Bang Boom
for a while at 2, he looked like a decent prospect. He even dominated a
few times, but he did show troubling signs, and when those surfaced, he
was NFG. He never even won at 3 in 18 tries, and now he appears as an
aged horse looking for a resurrection and spot where he can find a level
and get his confidence back. He did pace in 52 in a Sire Stakes at KD,
and that has to be respected. He isn't a slug, but he has to perform. I
will watch tonight, and see if he gives me reason to back him going
forward.
2 Sierra Madre is 2 for 42 the last two
seasons, and shows that by hanging most nights in the lane. He hangs not
because he doesn't try, but mostly, because he isn't the soundest thing
and drifts out badly. He did close at Flamboro last time to bag 3rd,
but, most of those are much softer than these, albeit these aren't world
beaters either. He did come a very fast back half last week, and thus,
he can make the bottom of the ticket picking up the bad trippers and non
triers. I don't view him as a logical win candidate.
8 Southwind Razor
has been with his current connections for as long as I can remember but
now goes to Waxman off the claim and picks up Roy. I will stay away, as
I suspect he will be wildly overbet on that angle and I'm not sure a
class jump like this wont equalize that, even assuming the chemical
potion he gets tonight will wake him up. If he was back in for 6500, and
drew the rail at Flambingo, I'd probably take a shot.
9 Big John Houn
is an Ohio purchase that has not worked out so far. He made consecutive
breaks and had to requalify, which he did well. He will need a lot more
speed here to take down Weatherly and a few others, and post 9
certainly dooms him to coming from behind, which is not something he has
shown he can do at this track to this point. He does get a class drop,
but he was outclassed before, so he is not dropping, he is searching.
RACE 8
Girl Drama is out. I will pass on the rest.
RACE 9
Terrible
bunch to sort. Not for me. Cundalini finally draws a post that helps
him not hurts him, if you are inclined to search for an angle here.
RACE 10
8 Queen Ideal according
to Brealey, he thought she would need a start off the long layoff last
time, and she was raced that way, closing late for a share. These are
there to be taken and she has stakes experience and success to lean on,
which most of these do not. She only has 1 lifetime win though, so,
buyer beware. I could see her and use her here. One of a few who need
the trip.
3 Itsallabouthebasshas
longshot upside potential. She has post 10 last time, post 2 the time
before that as her current form off the shelf. She doesn't appear to be
much stock, but if she can get away 4th to 6th, pick up decent flow
cover and use the speed she showed last time for the back half, she is
possible at a big price. Usable.
4 Tearful of Happy
has the look of a beatable favorite, if she holds the ML assessment of
that. For starters she has missed about 3 weeks, and she won by a nose
last time. That was her 2nd win, the other being a maiden score. That
means she is a nose away from being a 1 time winner in 14 starts. She is
always around, but not the kind you can rely on at a short price. These
types go down all the time. Last time, McNair tattooed her a couple of
times to get off the wings, and was lucky to get the 2 hole, then came
out and went back in, forcing another who was moving to back off and
then come out later when she didn't want to. Deep in the lane, she was
done, hopelessly locked in but the leader both caved and went right just
in time to allow her to slip up the rail. A lot of luck went her way
that night. I will bank on that evening up a bit tonight. She seems to
need all of that to take these.
5 Greystone Ladyluck
goes to Weller from Oliver, who claimed her from Belore, who had her
probably since she first saw a harness. Its a potent angle, but I find
with Weller it takes a start to figure these out, while he can do it
faster with older more experienced types like 15 claimers. I will roll
the dice against her and watch to see. I don't get any inside info
otherwise, so I have to call it based on how he has performed in the
past with this type.
9 Strike a Chord is the unknown here, on
the trainer change to Boyd, new track, sparse racing as of late, and a
tough post. Pompano is cheap speed, so her 54 mile there is meaningless.
If I had a 3rd one to add, it would be her on the off chance she has
more ability than she shows and Boyd turns her. Its a monster longshot
type of angle.
7 Windsongmagnifique
had nothing last time at Flamboro. I will give her a pass and suspect
she couldn't get around, as she comes here. That's not a move you make
unless you think that was the only reason she bombed out. She has had
trouble lasting with these, so the win is hard to list, but she could
make the bottom of the ticket.
6 On the Minute Mark
is 1 for 27 life, and isn't getting it done with these. Trevor goes to
Weller as you would expect. I will pass. She has to do a lot more to get
my interest back.
1 Ok Jewel got
a free spin with maidens last week and did well with it, coming late
for 2nd, no match for the winner, and beating a kamikaze front ender and
another who looked bad sitting a loose pocket the entire way. She meets
tougher again, and doesn't look viable when she meets others who have
done more than she has before. I could see her sneaking on the ticket if
they battle and come back to her late.
2 Alliwannadoisplay
is 2 for 41 life. Not good. Win number 2 came last time at Flamboro in a
conditioned claimer. I don't see anywhere near the speed of many of the
others in here. Can't back her on a lot of variables.
We
have all seen that Jimmy Swaggart confession when he got caught with a
New Orleans prostitute. I was never a big fan of his or any of the
televangelists, but I thought it was interesting that he chose this way
to try and worm his way out of trouble. Trouble only he caused for
himself. Do I believe he was sincere in the way he repented? I'm not
sure, and it doesn't matter either way for this blog. The fact that he
copped to it, and could be sincere about it, is the reason I start
there. It came to me that way when I was pondering this blog last night.
Admitting
you have an issue, or that there is a problem and moving away from
denial is a key step in making progress, in anything.
I
have preached before that in any race you play, if you truly are a
serious player, you must fully vet out and analyze any horse on current
form and variables. That might only take 1 minute, it might take 10
minutes. But what you can't do is have a built in bias and discard them
based solely on what you think you know about them from some past
performance that isn't terribly relevant now.
Bias
is a very tough thing to overcome in betting. The reason for that is
that it is very easy to fall back on that type of playing. We do it in
real life too. We think it simplifies life and how to deal with the
barrage of daily facts and situations we encounter. I will give you some
brief examples.
-He is on welfare, he is just lazy. Or does drugs, or lacks motivation like the rest of us do.
-She is pretty, and has a great job. She should have no problem finding a man.
-All Muslims are terrorists, even the ones not doing anything currently. They will if given the chance.
I could go all day, but I wont. This blog is about betting on horses. Safe to say those statements are way too general, uninformed, and mostly will be false in the vast majority of cases.
One
of the reasons I do a very thorough blog when I do it is not to pick
winners. That is important too, and its the goal, but the true benefit
of what I do when I do those is to step back every couple of weeks and
see what I got wrong, in many cases horribly wrong, and take a long look
at that. I will do that here. I already know where the problem is, I just want to be specific about each example to make my overall point.
Clearly,
my bias is hurting my ROI and will continue to do so until I correct
that. For all I know, it has for as long as I have been betting. The
easiest way for me to see the mistake is to list all the horses that
won that I picked last or second last, look at what I said about them
and think about what I thought about them overall.
This
was my first blog back after a short break. I did that because I am
moving towards playing mostly T breds, and I have a lot to learn to play
those at the level I like to play. I simply didn't have time to do a
blog up for WEG harness, do the research of the T breds, and live my
life otherwise as I wish to. But, I also developed a few new playing
strategies, and I wanted to test them out with real money and
handicapping on a product where I already know plenty enough to do well
if I do the work. So, I took a lot of time and did this blog up. I did
my homework, and I got the first 3 winners out of 4 races right, two of
which paid very well (Pop Goes The Weasel in the 1st ($11.00) and Casimir Overdrive in the 4th ($6.90 ). Finish Line in
the 2nd was a pretty easy play for me, but he paid only around even
money. I expected higher, but the smarter bettors were on to him and bet
him down.)
Anyway, 4 races, 3 right, and they were very accurate
comments if you watch the races, the replays are available on You Tube under WEG replays. I gave the other winner, Resistance Futile
a good shot, he was viable and was a use in the pick 5 if I had played
that. Then we arrive at Race 5, and here is where I made a mistake.
I liked the favorite, Brilliant Strike N,
and so did everyone else. I did watch his previous race replay, and I
was confident that he was ready to go, and only needed to show up.
However, I did list reasons he might be suspect, based on things I know
about his sire and the nature of overseas horses coming to this side of
the world and dealing with weather and class they never have before.
That played out, and he bombed out. That I am okay with. I weighed all
that and made my call. Some of those will bomb. But, what I'm not okay
with is how I viewed J Eagle Feather.
My
comment on that horse was based on two things. I had remembered that
two races back, he was a heavy favorite but didn't look good in the
race, hanging badly and bearing in terrible most of the way. That race
was a class below this. In his next start, a race I never watched, he
dropped a level from that and was only 4th. At first glance, a quick
glance, he looked outclassed and my bias memory was now that he wasn't
good enough and had physical issues. But that was one race, and one race
does not a horse make, good or bad. In fact, when you look at his last
race, and the last race that Brilliant Strike N went, on the same night, J Eagle Feather paced a faster back half than Brilliant Strike N. In terms of effort, he raced harder and performed as well or better. I am still of the opinion Brilliant Strike
is the far superior horse and will prove that out, and in fact his next
start he finished 2nd and raced up to the potential I thought he would
actualize this night. But, on this night, J Eagle Feather was not an automatic toss, as I listed him. It was a lazy, quick glance mistake. Lesson learned.
J Eagle Feather finished 2nd, and almost won. The payoffs on him were very large, as listed below. Brilliant Strike
was a well beaten 7th, never involved in the race and hanging badly in
the stretch. I was on the wrong horse, because I didn't handicap the
race properly.
Quick
glance handicapping is what losing bettors do because they don't have
the time, or don't care to use it even if they do have it.
"I have a read on this horse, No need to look at current form"
I
did well on the next card and then for the most part, I did very well
on this card, getting many right and turning a profit because I was very
thorough, except for one mistake. Again, I focus on the mistake. I am
already doing the other stuff well, I can just keep doing that. The
mistakes are where I have to improve. This is a mistake I have made for
years, and it costs me weekly.
I had a clear bias here. I used the word "appears" which indicates I didn't even look Andovers Choice
over. That is correct. I did not. I made a comment about him not being
good enough and likely to be shipped to a lesser track and circuit by
spring. That has been my view of that horses ability since he broke his
maiden. He made me pay on this night for that comment.
First
off, he is a young trotter. They can turn on a dime. You have to look
at them currently to make any call. That is a huge mistake to make.
Either you pass on playing any race they are in, or you do the work that
will pay off if you do it. Its very similar to the Maiden Special
Weight, Maiden Claiming variables in T breds. It's not like playing
older, established claimers. In his case, he was making breaks in
stride, and when he didn't, which he didn't in his previous line, he
performed up to what was needed in this race. In fact, he did exactly
that on the bottom line on his page, when he got exactly the trip he got
on this night, and won, as he did then too. Secondly, he has the top
trainer at this track for many years, and the best percentage post by
far at the track, one he didn't have on any of the lines on the page.
Thirdly, he has the top driver currently at this track, and it was his
first time driving him. Those are ALL reasons to consider this horse. To
top it off, it was a very weak field, he had shown the speed needed
before, even on the page, and his qualifier wasn't bad. He had improved a
bit. He was still very chancy, but in no way should I have viewed him
as an easy toss. I did. He won easy, and beat me.
You should get
beat when you make as many mistakes as I made here. It's hopefully the
way you learn that the game isn't as tough as you think if you do what
you know how to do well. If you don't, you will lose, and should lose.
Others are doing the work. Hard work should be rewarded. Its the
foundation of how we view our society.
"If a horse beats you, its likely your fault, not his or hers. Don't hold that against them."
The
next card was the next night. I decided part of the issue was the
amount of time I had, and to do 10 races the way I like to do it was
not reasonable or necessary. So, I narrowed it down to 4 or 5 where I
was positive I could beat the favorite (which is how I play if you know
anything about how I play) and get value that way. I found 4 races where
I thought there were bad overbet favorites and I had viable options to
beat them with. I listed all of those races with how I was going to play
them. I had the outright winner in 2 of those 4, which is very good
handicapping, and both paid well.
Donna Party paid $12.80 and Wrangler Magic paid $19.30. In another race, I was confident I was beating the two I thought would take most of the money, I Wish You Well and On The Minute Mark, and both of those missed the ticket. I had the top 3 finishers as my top 3, but the favorite turned out to be Evangelin Seelster,
so, the bettors got this one right when she won. My top 2 were both
11-1 longshots who finished 2nd and 3rd. I didn't actually bet the race,
as I realized I had read the odds on the race wrong, and the favorite
won, so its not a race I probably should have played. My friend Garnet
Barnsdale did. He read the race as I did, had the top 3 in a triactor
and cashed a big ticket. I'm not really a triactor player, so that isn't
something I would play. In any event, I was thorough in this race, and I
got the race right. The 4th
race I listed this night is probably the most important lesson of all
the ones in this blog, as its the one mistake most of us make the most. I
don't know any handicapper who doesn't make this mistake. It gets back
to the real world examples I listed at the start of the blog.
"When Barockey wins, I lose"
I
have a friend who say that all the time. In fact, the same guy who
cashed the triactor. I don't say it, but I could, because I bet the
races that way when she is in them. Why is that?
Well, for a time, Barockey
was a very nice mare. She was even a tough Preferred level mare about 3
or 4 years ago. Shortly after she lost that form, she plummeted down
the class ranks, but in spite of that, she would continually lose at
odds on or lower, many times with very easy trips. She just appeared to
be no good any more. And for a while, she was no good. But then, she got
a longer layoff, and somehow, she returned to be a decent class moving
mare who won her share. Sure, at times, she would still blow big leads,
or fail off pocket trips she should win off of. But, she did win her
share. For me, and others, we already have a mindset on this mare. She
will lose when you think she should win, so, never play her.
In the race earlier in the blog where I hit Pop Goes The Weasel, Barockey was
the 2nd favorite. She was coming off a win and moving up in class. I
didn't like the favorite either in that race, for the reasons I stated,
and it played out exactly as I said it would. Barockey stopped badly, as she is prone to do.
But
you know what else she is prone to do? Come right back and race better
the next time. That is her history if you look up her past performance.
She is just one of those that can be very bad for a race, or month, but
turn it right back around for no reason that any of us can figure.
The handicapping angle we miss on her is that she is consistently inconsistent.
That will bring big odds, and she delivers on those odds. As she did on
this night. I tossed her, because she had bad current form. That was a
mistake. I tossed her because I have played her in the past and lost
bets on her. I played her, however, when she appeared to have good form,
and then went bad. She performs on the bad form--race good angle. Some
do that. It's not for me to figure out why, if that can even be figured
out. Its for me to figure out she is that type of horse, and play her if
the odds are right. My comment on this night reflects I had already
decided she had bad form and was not going to win, no matter what.
Here is the reality of Barockey.
She has made 370k lifetime, has a record of 1:50.2 and 35 wins. She is a
very talented and fast horse who knows how to win races. She just
doesn't care to do it when we think she will. That is our problem, not
hers. Unless we make it our problem, which I have.
Losing
a bad bet on a horse once, or even twice, isn't the horses fault. It's
your fault, and if you hold a bias against that horse because of it, you
will lose more bets because you didn't figure out the reason you lost
the first time.
On
this card, I got almost everything right and made a very nice profit.
However, I should have made more. Being happy you did okay when you
could have done better is what losers justify as luck or the way it
goes. I don't. I want to be the best I can, and make adjustments when I
see they are there to be made. The fastest car in the world will not be
as fast as it was made to be if the timing is off and needs to be
adjusted.
No need to go into much detail here, except that I view Paparazzi Hanover in the same way I view Barockey, and also with a dose of Andovers Choice.
So, I tossed him, and he beat me. Its probably the point where this
blog started to develop in my head. A repetitive mistake I could see 3
nights in a row.
I could also note that J Eagle Feather and Paparazzi Hanover have the same trainer/driver and maybe I need to get a better read on that guy, which I thought I had, but I clearly do not.
"The worst kind of mistake to stomach, You are right, but you still get it wrong."
As Britney would say, "Hit me baby, one more time."
I got this race right. I had a bad favorite tabbed and she was very beatable. I had a live contender, at 35-1 in Total Knockout, who I even noted is the Barockey
type, but not nearly as talented. I had her on top. She raced pretty
good, was right there, but was short at the end when it mattered.
You
know who wasn't short? Phoenician Gal, who is a similar
type, and also another of Travis Cullen's who beat me on this night.
When somebody beats you enough times, you stop saying hit me baby one
more time, and start thinking about how not to get hit. Cullen has
convinced me. Tossing him on an inconsistent horse is a stupid thing to
do. Whatever the issue is, he finds a way to fix it eventually. I don't
have to know when that night is going to be, I just have to make sure I
have him on that night. The two track hosts that night even touted how
she was wildly underbet, had a legit shot, and finally went off and won
at 16-1. I had the race figured right, which was a longshot was coming,
but didn't cover all the ones that could be that longshot. It's the
worst beat to take when you play the way I do.
If
you are certain the favorite is beatable, you don't short out any
longshot that has a legit shot in your mind to beat that favorite. I had
tabbed Three Pink Bows as a no chance type. I didn't like Donna Party back at shorter odds this week. Other than that, and the favorite, Case Dismissed, I needed to use the other 4. I didn't. I lost. Lesson learned.
"Midnight Blue. One more time for all the old times"
When
people you have respect for, like my friend Garnet and track
handicapper Chad Rozema pick a horse on top, and you are tossing it, you
should take a second look at why you tossed and they tabbed. I didn't. I
stuck to my stubborn guns, and I got shot by the bullet I should have
seen coming. It didn't feel good around midnight, when the card was
over, and I realized my bias handicapping was really a serious issue.
Odds On Amethyst is a combo of just about every mistake I described above. Like J Eagle Feather,
he has a very good last race, but I ignored it. I figured he was
outclassed and he raced poorly the times before I had actually watched
him. He is inconsistent, and a trotter, so, he was likely to blow up
either way, and I could toss him based on that. He has done it so many
times as it was. The Andover's Choice angle that bit me. Like Barockey,
he goes very hot and cold, and generally is bad as a favorite but turns
it around when the odds float up. His inconsistency is a plus, not a
negative, from a betting perspective. His trainer. Pat Hudon, is someone
I know, and I know he is a hard worker and very skilled horseman. He
will keep working at it to figure out this horse and make him perform,
to the talent the horse clearly has. I know all that, but I still tossed
the horse. I figured this race for a price horse, but I didn't look
over carefully every possible price horse.
At
the end of the day, the common theme of this blog is that I was lazy,
and used a bias that isn't valid to justify not doing the work I know I
should and have to.
Strictly a bias issue.
Should and would I have gotten all of these horses if I had done more work? No. But, I wouldn't have gotten beat by all of them in less than two weeks. One mistake, or beat I can take. A second one I can understand. Racing and race horses are not an exact science. But when a clear pattern emerges, and you can see why you are not performing, you cannot ignore that.
You
can have tons of years of experience like I do. You can have a
specialized skill set that I have gathered over those years. You can
have valid knowledge and really understand the game. But, you can never
beat a bad bias mindset and think you don't have to work for it. You
cannot. You will lose if you insist on doing that. It cost me, as it
should have.
As
I go forward, any race I make picks in will only be done if I think I
am beating the favorite. Will I beat them all? Of course not, and I do
not expect to. But, I know the percentages. Favorites win about 40% at
WEG, and less than even money favorites win about 55%. That leaves a lot
of room to beat them, and as well, I can't just beat 60% of favorites
and 45% of less than even money shots. I have to do better than what
others can with those to derive a profit over time. That is what I
attempt to do, and I will list on each blog, starting with this one,
where I am at on that. If
I think the favorite has a very legit shot to win, then I pass the
race. If I think I can beat that favorite, but can't reasonably come up
with value plays below him or her within the number of picks in that
race I deem the right formula, I still pass the race. By my count, that
leaves me somewhere between 5 and 6 races a night to make plays from.
Some nights that might be 9 races, other nights it could be 2 races.
RACE 1
4 Passport to Art
broke his maiden 3 back, but while he is trying hard, doesn't seem to
have enough finish when he meets level or tougher competition. Luckily
for him, this class is very soft right now. He comes back on 3 days
rest, but if he is still lively and sound, and blasts out like last
time, he has a reasonable shot with these. No cinch though.
6 Dream of Luck
beat maidens off a sweet trip but those have not come back to race well
at all and he looks like he is in for a long stay in this class as he
has to develop now at this level. He will become something as the season
progresses and make some kind of Sire Stake horse. For now, he is more
likely to be a bit player.
3 New Talent
could not have gotten a sweeter trip last time. He floated out from the
2 hole, angled down the backside, picked up advancing and willing
cover, followed him to early stretch, then tipped off his cover but
could not pass him and let another by late. The leader was long gone,
and doubled up Saturday night, but he showed a trend for him...a lack of
grit and desire to get it done. The cheque he got that night forces him
to move back up the ladder and he shows that they have been tough for
him. He has 2 lifetime wins and only raced sparingly last year. He came
out guns a blazing at 2, but has leveled off after that season. There
isn't much to choose from underneath him but, I will go against him.
2 Blue Fox
made a break and put in some ugly steps behind the gate on Thursday
night, but he was back pacing on the gate when it pulled away. He went
an okay mile, but was not good enough when it mattered. He doesn't
strike me as one that does well off short rest, although that is a
tactic Weller uses often and has had some success with.
8 Fancourt
sat way out of it last time while the pretenders battled, then made a
wide stretch move to pick them all off. He was more controllable with
the martingale, and he did pick them off, but he was rocky most of the
way, which is probably his way of traveling, but bearing in many times
as he tried to gain momentum in the stretch. They came home in 30
seconds, so that gave him a reason to get away with it. Some of these
are just a shade tougher and more seasoned. I will pass on him tonight,
but he can go either way going forward.
1 Only Half Bad
finally broke his maiden after many starts, in part due to a first up
horse who was all over the track and dangerous, thus stalling the
progress of the logical and live contender. He meets winners here, and
coupled with the rail, I can't see him at first asking, and have a hard
time thinking he can handle nw2 at this track if and when he gets a shot
at them.
7 Windsun Gotham
wisely double dipped on maidens, but looked sore, steppy and borderline
lame last time. He was bearing in horrible in the last turn, but they
staggered home and came back to him, so he was right there with the
pack. He looks like one that will not take well to consistent winter
pounding and racing. I will take a pass until he shows me otherwise.
5 Get Decked
looked terrible pacing in the backfield all the way last time and
didn't cut into the pack in the lane. I can't see how he goes with the
better of this bunch.Early scratch. RACE 2
3 Think Again
had little chance for the win last Thursday when he drew the 10 hole,
but he did float out and not work very hard to get away a closer up 6th.
That left him enough to pick up 3rd money against the old seasoned,
veteran open claiming types. He gets back in tonight with the not so
sporty conditioned claimers, and that helps on some level. Post 3
doesn't hurt his chances either. This will be his 3rd start for Weller. I
like that he went forward as the pace picked up late. That bodes well
in with this bunch.
7 Sports Vision
had every chance to win last time, as Ryan gave him the perfect setup,
but he didn't go forward at all. These types sometimes just don't show
up, but show up the next time. That is why they are able to reside in a
class like this. He doesn't leave at all, so he is another who will need
some hot fractions and hopefully he brings his A game this time,
whatever that is to one like this.
4 East End
tried the condition types and did okay, picking up a solid 2nd once,
and now can maintain protection with the tag as they up it enough that
getting claimed is not probable. Roy takes over from Zeron, and that has
to be considered a plus based on the results lately from Mr. Roy. He
will need them to battle a bit in front of him, as he is not a fast
leaver.
1 Six Before Seven
was the victim of stretch interference two back, but last time took
back off the gate, moved early into the flow, was 2nd over on dead
cover, but that cover was at least keeping up with the leaders, and all
he had to do was tip off of it and pick off a suspect bunch. These
aren't much tougher, but a few are. I think the short price he brings
tonight poses bad value. If he has to work a bit harder, he is likely to
come up short.
6 Just a Thought
was sold by Hudon to Allard, and he got one start with him as he was
claimed by Holland out of that event. He never looked like he wanted to
try in that race, but Roy convinced him to keep pacing, something he
appears to be a master at. It was enough to save 3rd, but these look a
lot tougher than the ones he faced then. I suspect Randy knows him as he
was a McIntosh hopeful in his younger days.
2 Keystone Keen
draws the ML top choice based on his class drop. He also is a month
away and a vet scratch lame, which was a late scratch as he was
programmed to go just a few races prior on that card. That suggests he
warmed up poorly. He was inside the pylons in that last race he
participated in, and he is very chancy, even in a race where many don't
look very dangerous. I'd be very leery to take any kind of short price
on him.
5 Notetoself Hanover is a 4yo who has done
enough racing but only has 2 lifetime wins, many times blowing golden
opportunities to mow down a suspect leader but coming up short. He now
resides in the Ken Oliver barn, but his results and finishing prowess
have not changed. I can't see him with these as is. RACE 3 3 Tour De Lindywas
moving up last time with the 10 hole and that did him in. He did well
to get 3rd and draws better here. Fillion seems to be out of the funk he
was in, and when he is in the right mindset, he can dominate and win
with these types. He looks like he wants to be a good horse, and will
develop into a higher end type as he matures.
4 Alfa Mersadies gets in light tonight on the inflated lifetime earnings condition. She
has 8 wins in 25 starts the last two years, and an experience edge on
many of these. She could wire these, or sit on the back of one who
attempts that and pop that pocket late. Her versatility is a big plus in
this race. Shot.
7 South Win Bax
was coming along with maidens at this track, but went to Flamboro
before winning that class, then doubled up there, and now has to face
winners here. I wouldn't toss her, as winning is winning, and she looked
okay even with maidens when she had the right post to work with. Minor
shot if the likely ones don't perform.
8 Vasco Bi picked
up JJ last time, as Per was on vacation and he skipped before the start
and was never dangerous. JJ did good with him 3 back, so that can't be
the only reason he bombed, and it isn't. He floated out just fine, but
appeared to strike himself up front and that set him off galloping. He
was up against it after that, parked the mile, and behind a runner mid
backstretch, then simply was tired. In any event, JJ is available but
Per will steer him tonight. He is a 1 time winner facing many who have 4
or more wins, and a couple of others who have 2. He might be the best
long term prospect of this group, but for tonights race, I wouldn't play
him tonight, but I might next time if he shows me he is sorted out,
which most of us count on Per to do with his trainees.
1 Igocrazy Without U can
continue to pick up slices with this class, but a win would require a
lot of horses to do things wrong, and the chances off all the contenders
doing so in one race is slim. Bit player in my eyes.
2 You Cant Afford Me
had ambitious connections at 2, who aimed her at the Gold a few times
and even the Champlain. She picked up shares in some of those and the
grassroots, hence her 39k return. She was sold off to her current owners
and has not been let down this winter. She got her lone win in the
Autumn, and now comes back here looking for bigger purses, and likely
will be a fringe Grassroots type as the summer progresses. Being an
Angus Hall and from a Cantab Hall dam, you would expect her to be
erratic and make breaks, and she does that. I think she has an outside
shot with these, but others look a lot more viable and consistent. 2 of
her last 4 racelines resulted in breaks, and she had very easy fractions
when she won. These are tougher.
5 Noon Hour is
another who is a high percentage winner, but that was mostly at
Northfield, where the fields are not deep at all relative to what you
get at this track. The way she finished her last two races, even with a
moderate class drop here, I cannot back her. She looks like a B track
horse.
6 Summit City Turbo was good a few weeks ago, but was raced on short rest, and now has regressed for 2 consecutive starts. I am off the bandwagon. RACE 4
Pass and watch these, as I suspect Beyombo is the one and he will bring short odds. Brief comments on what I see. Not listed in order but by post position.
1 Devils Peak looks like the type that will get a lot of 2nd and 3rds in this class. Keep watching to see if he confirms that. 2 Kazimoto first time starter, has to be seen for future tries. Watch closely. 3 Sedona Seelster should be overbet on the last race. He doesn't always show up and perform. Beware. 4 Southwind Savage still not impressed with him. I'd leave him off the ticket. 5 Chummy Park hanging rat who teases with short bursts of speed. Roy isn't likely to get this one over the top. 6 Beyombo unlucky trip last time, but gritty to pace right to the wire. Improving and looks like a good one. 7 Sporting Life decent pedigree, nice progression, looks like a prospect, outside shot tonight if faves bomb. 8 Nascar Seelster one to watch for future plays, expect usual Randy sit and brush late first time starter treatment. 9 Mystical Sun well bred, looks like a player on this circuit, post hurts tonight, watch for future plays. Longshot. 10
Casimir Patriot too many strikes against him tonight, but might be
viable as he goes along if he is allowed in with maidens again. RACE 5
2 Utopia
left out for the pocket in a 5 horse field last time and looked to be
sitting perfect when nobody pulled deep into the last turn. That turned
into a trap and he never got out of jail, Roy never even asking him or
driving him, just coasting along last but with no chance to go forward.
He is possible if he can maintain that level of effort and get more
racing luck this time. Roy sticks with Allard, so J Mac takes over, and
he does well with Joe C anyway.
1 Finish Line is a former 8 claimer that Allard has turned into a trotter who is a
win away from the Preferred. He is hard to go against here, but even
with the rail start, he seems to be willing to work for it. Shot.
7 Marquis Volo is about as consistent a trotter you can find when he races. He has
long gaps when he goes on the shelf, but when racing, he races, he tries
and he wins his share. This is a deep group, so he isn't my top choice,
but he is probably an add in the picks if you play that. I wouldn't
want him to beat me.
3 Catch the Dream
tucked immediately last time and that is a strategy that works for him.
He stays trotting and can finish if the trip works out in his favor, as
it did that time. He moved up the inside when many went out, ran into a
roadblock, but both in front of him bore out just in time to allow him
to drive the plyons and get up for 2nd, to the sharpest trotter on the
circuit who doubled up as well. He meets a few tougher ones here, but
not terribly more so.
4 Major Athens was first up
last time and 2nd best to Finish Line, whom he meets again and others
who have a bit better form than him. I will go to them. Minor shot, but
just not enough for me.
8 Fearless Man draws
the outside, and he isn't carrying his speed like he did the last
couple of years. I think he has lost a step and will pass on him. He
looks to be entering the class mover, drop and pop type as he ages.
9 Burnin Money
does okay, but is generally more viable when the classes are thinner,
he is down a level and draws a better post. Pass for me tonight.
6 Charlie Is a Joker wired
a much weaker bunch last time by getting the 2nd quarter breather and
trotting away from there. That party is over. Back to reality.
5 Odds on Amethyst needs
careful handling to get away clean and stay trotting, and he doesn't
need many reasons to give these an advantage anyway, as they have more
class and form to him as of late. Pass. RACE 6 6 B N Bad might, and I say might emphatically, have been better last time.
Fillion took several looks over to his left leaving, and when he saw a
few gapping and taking back, he decided to sprint out of there. Late
Night beat him out, then two others filled the gap and he had to take
back to 4th. That resulted in following one who stopped to a walk and he
lost all momentum, then ducked to the inside and went as much as he
could. Post 6 is the best leaving post, and if he can blast again and
somehow find a 2 hole and save his energy, he is a decent longshot play.
He has 32 lifetime wins and a record of 49 and change. That is ancient
history, but he still has enough speed left to go with the bottom rung
like this.
4 Rockabellagoes to Carmen. Good enough for me. I'd use him on the chance he finds the key to make this rat try.
1 Late Night was gassed out of there last time by Phil, but a longshot who backed up
at the half carried him all the way to the quarter and he was down to
the half in 54.2, and spent by the tote board. He looked good doing it
the whole way, and simply was a victim of post and trip. If he brings a
more reasonable price tonight, I could back him.
10 Burning Shore was blasted out of there by Randy last time, for reasons I don't get,
then backed through them sharply. He has never been the soundest horse,
but if that race didn't hurt him, he can turn the tables here with the
double class drop. I'd use him in the picks. An off the pace approach
could work here. I could see many of these wanting the front and
battling to get it.
2 House of Terror
was in a live cover flow last time, but they went better than him when
it mattered. He has lived in this class all winter, and I don't see him
moving on up to the better ones based on how he races. Bit player and
opportunist. Wont work for it.
9 K D Overdrivecomes back on 3 days rest, loses post advantage, and isn't winning anyway. Pass.
5 Crocadile Canyon
was distanced last time and got on the vets list. He qualified back,
but he has not come back off the long layoff good this time. Pass and
watch, but I'd be willing to say its more likely he is an 8 claimer than
20 at this point, and he doesn't look good enough to win even this
class.
7 Team Edward is not one I've ever seen
before, and he appears to have spent his career at the B's, most
recently at Rideau. I suppose he has a shot, but I will go to others who
show they can race for higher purses.
8 Mach It Big is
tough to back on form and post. He has seen better days, but the odd
time he pops back into gear. If you think tonight is that night, this
group is ripe for the taking. I don't and will go elsewhere.
3 Hail the Taxi I don't know how soft a field it takes at this track for him to win, but I haven't seen one yet, and neither has he. RACE 7 I will
pass on these. They are too evenly matched, with the favorites looking
both probable and beatable at the same time. I will note I liked the way
Cue Hall looked on the track last time and he is heading towards a big
score, but post 10 tonight takes care of that chance. I will have my eye
on him for a potential score down the road. RACE 8 Not a bunch I'd try to sort. RACE 9
4 Top Dollar
drew poorly last time and was out the mile. He moves up in class again,
but Roy seems to find a way to win with anything, and Allard's juice is
still effective at this point. I could see him if the right trip
materializes. Before he had the 9 hole, he had all 1's and 2's, and
thus, hasn't had a preferable post in many races. That could indicate
hidden form, and anyway, he won two of those and was 3rd in another.
Medium level shot.
9 Mighty Nicky never performed for Alagna, but as we have seen many times, a barn
change away from him and some of those turn right around. He has done
that, winning 3 straight, and moves up again. J Mac takes him over the
2, one of his main clients. Post 9 isn't easy, but he is possible on
continued improvement.
3 Lmc Mass Oak draws better here, but his slow starts from any post put him in a hole
he rarely digs out of when he is up against this type of competition.
However, he has blown up the tote board a few times, and I wouldn't toss
him in a race where I am of the opinion the top 2 obvious ones are
beatable tonight.
5 Honor Above All ships
back with poor form, but he has competed okay at this level before. He
doesn't always have the grit to win, a function probably of his dam
sire, but he is okay enough if the top choices bomb.
1 Free Willy Hanover is
a tough call tonight. On the one hand, he was compromised by having
post 1 last week, which he gets again, and thus had to make a strong
blast move to the top, and that cost him the win, while only being beat
by a legit one. He beat the rest. On the other hand, he is in for that
trip again, and also looked sore and bearing in many times in the mile,
and that could be something that is accumulating now that he races on
and meets level competition. He might have gotten away with it before,
but others have more talent at this level and can make him pay for any
flaw. I will go against him. Its a risk/reward play.
8 Sergeant Seelster
is on a 4 race win streak, beat the one last time that beat the 1 last
week, and adds Trevor in favor or Wray, who while he has done a fine job
so far, is not Trevor Henry. Post 8 will also test him. He waits on
horses and looked all out last time to just hold on. I am playing others
in here and will roll the dice against him.
2 Keegan Ho loses J Mac to the 9 and gets Hensley don't think he can win, but he can hit the ticket if things go his way.
7 P L Jill beat
a weak bunch 2 back, but now she has to face the next level up, and
that looks like a tough chore for her until she develops more. She is a
big strong mare, but she is meeting the upper echelon now of what this
track brings. She can't boss around and outmuscle these. Pass.
6 Majestic Presence
doesn't look to have the overall speed of many of these and when she
gets headed, she stops. This is a competitive race. She is one I can
toss and take my chances.
10 Major Muscle is not one I can see with a post like this in a field like this. RACE 10
4 Barefoot Bluejeansis
a 4yo homebred taking a tag for the first time off a long layoff. I
could make a case he pops on this bunch. He shows 54 over Georgian, and
that stacks up here if he paces back to that. Trevor can motivate him if
that is needed.
2 Classic News
has changed hands, and goes first time Etsell. His form and overall
speed ability look as good as any of these, and I rate him a big shot.
6 Futomaki had every chance last time, but didn't seem to want to try. I'm looking
for a pricey longshot for this race, and Carmen has been known to turn
one like this week to week. I could use him on that chance.
7 Four Card Major is
a logical play for the hot tandem of McNair and Marfisi, and he could
even be the chalk over the 5. I am inclined to roll the dice against
him, although I'm aware that is risky with his good form and the nature
of the crappiness of this field as a whole.
3 Trigger
gets a shot here tonight on the ride up with his more success
stablemate. Why not? You are coming anyway. He moves up sharply and
doesn't show me what I think you need to make the transition to this
class. Wray has improved him since he took him from Weller, but not
enough for me. Cheque getter in all likelihood.
9 Jump Jet
will have to show me a lot more speed to think he overcomes the 9 hole
and takes this bunch. He gets a pass for the 8 hole at Flamboro last
time. He doesn't get a pass for the effort before that. They are trying
to move him and I suppose this is a showcase to try and get that
accomplished.
5 Flyin Orion is a
horrible Northfield rat and I will be happy to go against him if he gets
heavy play on the Roy/Allard angle. The horse that beat him last time
caved in big time next out. He probably would have that night too if he
had something to pass him. This one couldn't even get by him.
1 Lock N Reload has not been competitive twice in this class, and I see no reason he is here tonight. These are soft, but he is softer.
8 Dg Ramtough 5yo, 1 lifetime win and terrible form. I can't see him being the one.
10 Duneside Sport
total pass. Ketros can start by trying to get him under control so he
isn't so dangerous, if and when he draws better next time.
