Friday, December 4, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 4, 2015

Best Win Bets:  
Best Longshot Win Bets: 

KAYLA GRACE in the 1st
YANKEE PUZZLE in the 9th 
HOPE FOR PADDY in the 10th
Best Place Bets: 

Best Show Bets: 
Worst Win Bets: 
LIGHTS GO OUT in the 8th
MARQUIS VOLO in the 9th


Race 1

Overall synopsis: Fairly evenly matched bunch where most have a legit shot if things go their way. I went for a price option and took two behind her, one who rarely wins but gets a new driver and a better post, the other who has the most talent and pops huge when she's good, but you never know with her.

Probable Favorite: DAZZLING ROCKETTE

KAYLA GRACE --generally starts slow with the better ones at this track, but she can finish huge if the flow goes her way. There should be some contentious action on the front end, and that helps her cause. Strictly a trip play with a horse who has shown she can capitalize on that in the past.

Value Win Price 10-1 

TRUE REFLECTION   gets a better post and Trevor back.  However, there are others who want the front or close to it here,  which means she gets used hard to get and maintain position. This mare only needs a very mild reason to not win. That should be enough. If she somehow managed to get a 2 hole trip and didn't have to move until very late, she could convert that. That is unlikely, but not out of the question. Otherwise, 2nd or 3rd is reasonable here.

GREYSTONE LADYLIKE    which Ladylike will show up tonight? The one from October 16th, who looked like the Preferred mare this one was for a while, pacing out of her skin on a front end mission? The one who broke before the start two back, something she has a habit of doing from time to time? The one who was live enough but didn't have the grit to pass after a first up trip? You just don't know with this mare. I will slot her 3rd, with a shot, and not play her on the likely short price, based on that she is sharp enough and is the ML. She is probably bad value, but certainly capable of taking the entire field.

 Play Against:

DAZZLING ROCKETTE goes for the potent tag team of Moreau and Fillion. She drops back here, and after 4 wins in a row before that, is the certain favorite, possibly heavy. I feel, although I like her enough,  she is overbet here,  and is in the mix but better off to go against her and look elsewhere. This is a more experienced group than she has faced before, other than last time, which were also better quality than most of these. So, she gets class relief, but has yet to show she can beat decent aged mares. She will have to show me that tonight. They aren't as easy to blitz as some she took down in her streak.

Anticipated Win Price 8-5

The rest:

BAROCKEY--If not for Carmen as the trainer, and his long history of turning horrid form into winning form on a dime, I'd list her as no shot. She gapped a perfect trip in the stretch last time, ran with another great trip the time before that.  She has an issue for sure. Does he fix that? That is your call. I pass, but I can't toss her either.

BRESCIA SEELSTER- has a hard time winning, and now moves up two levels without doing so. I can't play her based on that, and Mario B holding the lines. Bit player for tonight.


SHADYS M THREE--not very sound these days, and not much of a winner period in her career. Maybe back at the bottom I have a look at her chances. For tonight, I keep an eye on her and see where she is at for that likely drop.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: With The Murmuring Pan an early scratch, things are wide open here. I didn't like her that much anyway, but all the price that might have been there just evaporated with her out of the mix.

Probable Favorite: TYMAL FIREITUP

ASPEN CALIFORNIA --is the one I go to. She raced okay in both legs, and if not for her live cover running in the wrong spot, may have taken the winner. She needs to do more early, and if A Mac can get that trip, she has a shot to arrive in time this time. I think she is a better mare than she is showing, and hopefully she steps up tonight with the money on the line. 

Value Win Price 4-1 

TYMAL FIREITUP   She is tough to go against with her front end style and the ability to carry it against frankly a poor balance of the field. I found one who might take her, but she is dependent on somebody going after this mare. It is debatable if that actually happens. 

HURRICANE HAZEL    has the talent, so I rate her a shot. She has breaking and soundness issues, but on a good night, she is probably the best one of these other than the scratched horse.  She is pretty much a late closer, and that sometimes wins in these stakes races where others overdrive their horse to take a foolish shot at a big pot. She can benefit if that happens.

 Play Against:


The rest:

ILL STAY HERE--tripped out in the first leg, but was all done on the turn last time. She has a history of inconsistency. If she turns that around in a week, then I suppose she is in the mix. I don't see that. She was racing in a phony claimer before this series. That is more in line with her overall skills.

HOPE RISES- closed up well last time to nab 3rd. If everything goes her way, she could do that again. That is about the best she can hope for.


STRIKNGLYIMPRESIVE--is anything but, and frankly, she is lucky if she pulls off 5th money here. She is basically a fresh maiden meeting proven winners. I can't like her chances and her form isn't great on top of that.

CROWN CLASSIC- is a 21 time maiden who has breaking and steering issues. I can't see her taking home any money here at all unless there are multiple breakers and she isn't one of them. She doesn't have enough go, even when she leaves herself a shot.

P L INDYANACA-is marginal enough to begin with, and now we add the 9 hole and not much of a chance she gets a hole if she tries to leave.


BRINKERS DREAM--continues to show she has the talent, but every time she arrives on the far turn with a shot, she is running in so bad she loses momentum and P Mac does what he can to keep her trotting. If that was ever corrected, she is a different mare.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Short field, and a likely pretty short price on the favorite. That favorite is tempting. I will probably play another. But she wont be easy to take down.

Probable Favorite: YES YOU CAN

OUR HOT MAJORETTE --steps up to the next level, and meets a few who have been ahead of her for some time. Her last mile shows that maybe she is finally reaching the potential she has hinted at for a long time. I will give her the top call as the 2nd likely betting choice. I would have to be firm on the price. 

Value Win Price 5-2

YES YOU CAN   looks hard to beat in here, but she is beatable. Here is my take. The way Fillion drives her, he appears to see her as one who needs to stay in and save ground to finish. Tonight, he might just give her a shot to challenge my top choice. In that case, she can be rebuffed. If she happened to get in the 2 hole and follow that one and slip out at any point before the tote board, she would probably be the winner. I could see her being 6-5 or lower, and I don't want that price based on her lack of wins at this track.

 Play Against:


The rest:

SOUTHWIND GEISHA-draws better here and has a shot. I don't favor her against some who have a slight edge, but if they fail, or battle each other, she is the benefactor. I would think she is probably 3rd or 4th.

RIDE AWAY SHARK- She looked sore, start to finish last time. She draws bad off a bad line with these. Bit player for tonight.


YOUR MY SECRET--even if she is good enough to go with these, which I doubt, she needs at least one to get up to speed.


LADY HOT SHOT--moves up off a sharp effort to one who is very sharp right now. She just doesn't show as much consistently as some of these. So, I list her as a longshot if she can actually come right back and be as good as last time.


DOCS HOLLYWOOD--gets her 2nd start with these, and she needs to step up and show more. Much like when she was a maiden, she shows flashes to suggest she will pop and click in, which she did at a big price then. I keep watching for the sign of that, but just watch tonight.

Race 4

Overall synopsis: Bottom level condition trotters, with two likely and legit faves and a newcomer who comes in completely unknown.

Probable Favorite: GAME ON HANOVER

JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL --every now and then, this mare leaves and keeps going. Most times, she finds a way to get beat, or be out trotted. The price will be right tonight, and while I don't mind the likely faves, I don't like them enough to play them as win candidates. I'd take a shot at this one and add her to the pick 4.  At least she will be a price.

Value Win Price 30-1 

GAME ON HANOVER   gets a 3rd try at these. She is racy enough, but finds ways to get beat. As the probable favorite, and maybe even 8-5, I will pass on the win with her. She needs to start better to gain my confidence. And if she does that, she needs to show she can do that and still finish. The jury is out on if she can accomplish that task.

QUIT SMOKING NOW   just missed coming late last time. The 7-1 ML doesn't seem logical. I'd say he is 7-2 if you are lucky. 5-2 isn't out of the question. I will list him for 3rd, but he is as good as any of these right now.

 Play Against:


The rest:

HER NAME IS LOLA--just cant quite put it together since the spring. She is on the edges, but little things seem to do her in. Mostly, she needs a bit more at the finish, and the drive must be timed to get the max out of her before she feels the air come out of the balloon. I could have listed her as watching for a future play. Any hint she is turning it around, and she would whip this bunch. That hasn't appeared yet.

JUSTALITTLEFASTER- is a very slow starter who pops every now and then when they stop and he is having a good night. That could be tonight. He is more likely a bit player, as always.

SUMMIT CITY NATE-is the new face in town. Off a month however, and I will list him in the pack while I have a look. His sire has a penchant for producing horses with big talent who make a lot and consistent breaks. He doesn't show that on the page. I have to see him once around. He wasn't beating nw2 as it is at Hoosier, and these are generally tougher than those.


EXCUSE ME PLEASE--was overdriven by Hughes last time, but hung tough for 2nd in spite of it. He isn't a legit WEG driver, and this horse isn't much most of the time. I see that mile as a mirage, and wouldn't go near him unless he doubled up that effort and put someone who does it for a living in the drivers seat.

MEADOWVIEW VICKY-had nothing from the 9 hole last time and moves over one more here. Maybe another day. 


FIVE BELOW--was on a wild run last time well before the start and was never in range.  Who knows if he is fixed up? It could be that Adams is just tossing him right back out there, like he does most, and taking his chances. If he were better he has a shot.


MEGO MOSS-goes back on lasix as the search for dartboard answers continues. Talent is there. Performance in the here and now is not. You could not look worse in a race than this one has his last two. He should be on the list.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: The likely fave looks great on paper, and has performed. I think that brings value to the one who got the worst of the trip last time. I will play it that way. I don't see any others threatening for the win prize.

Probable Favorite: MUCH ADOO

ANISTON SEELSTER --got screwed last time, as she took back, then rushed at the leader and went crazy 3rd quarter speed trying to head her. Tonight, back to blast mode, and probably sitting on the chalk's back. That kind of trip is what she likes and needs to beat legit contenders. I will take the win price listed and no less.

Value Win Price 2-1 

MUCH ADOO   Is 2 for 2 in the series, full value both times. But, the first time she benefitted with some pinballing behind her, and last time got a monster breather to the 2nd quarter which killed off the chalk when she came to her. Things might not go her way this time, and she could get picked up. I will play for that. 

SHEZ A GOLD MINE   got away dead last from the 10 hole last time, but closed huge in the stretch. she looks very live for a shot at the ticket here if she can reproduce that and be up a shade closer.

 Play Against:

AMAZING CONTROL dominated the weaker half last time, but has to face the full set of contenders here. That should do her in.

Anticipated Win Price 6-1

The rest:

SHOW SOME LEG--does enough to be in range if there is some crazy front end battle and a collapse of anything legit. Otherwise, she comes late for 3rd or 4th, and continues plodding along all winter winning her share in conditions.

PINKY TUSCADERO- same comment as Show Some Leg, but also the chance she is more stock if there is a trainer/driver change at some point.




DOUBLE OLIVES--was offstride early last time, and that is a habit she possesses. It looks like she interferes. On the nights when she doesn't, she might be as good as any of these. Who knows how she performs tonight. If you want to take the chance she gets away clean and picks up live cover, she could blow up the tote board if the chalks battle and get soft.

Race 6

Overall synopsis: back to the bottom end trotting condition types. If Power Move is the ML choice, you know the field is not deep. I wont even bother going over the field. I will make a straight data play that is math based. Its a longshot.

Probable Favorite: POWER MOVE

ZUKAV --my data tells me he has a shot. Nothing more to it than that. I will probably ignore it and take a break with this race. Rat city.

Value Win Price 30-1 

Race 7

Overall synopsis: Not the easiest bunch to sort, but I went to the one I know well hooking up with the trainer that is making them all go for the moment.


DUSTYLANE MSVICKIE --is a month off as she ships in for Brealey. Unlike many Maratime shippers, this is one I know well from watching their Sire Stakes. She has a lot of ability, and Brealey can fine tune her into a 51 pacer right away. Maybe not tonight, being off a month and it being cold, but within some time. She can do enough to handle this very weak bunch. Top call. 

Value Win Price 2-1 

CHEEKIE  Got 2nd last time in a non threatening move to the long gone winner. CC ditches her for a big longshot here. That isn't a great reference, but not enough to deter me to give her a legit shot if my top choice bombs out. She was very good in the summer for a month, and a return to that would handle this bunch.

BLACK WIDOW BABY    has a maiden win against 2 who were well known to not perform when it came to crunch time. She continues to pick up shares at this level, and I see no reason to change that assessment. She might be a decent aged mare claimer, but for now, she is a middle of the pack type who gets cheques.

 Play Against:

HOT SPOT HANOVER looked terrible post parading last time, and equally bad trying to catch the gate while running. Until I see a reversal of that, I go against her.

Anticipated Win Price 5-1

The rest:

FOXY DANCIN--first time starter on this circuit with very low earnings as a 4 year old is first lasix for the new connections of Allard and Perriera. No thanks. Shooting a pop gun at a dinosaur here in my view.

CAMPS BAY- draws bad and looks bad period.  Maybe another day if she gets her act together.


KASSARAS SONG--backs up like the B track stock she is when it counts.


BOOZER BRUISER--drops out of the Autumn series, where she was clearly over her head. She beat a similar bunch to these at boxcars off a perfect trip. She can do that again, but she also has had gait issues this season, a season that is 12 hard starts in for the first week of December. Could go either way on her.


SHESAGAMEMAJOR-makes another start up attempt. Soundness and or sickness are obviously some issue with this one. Based on how she was driven in the last attempt, they feel she has some ability. I will watch this time. As of now, she can't be touched.

PASSIONATE BEAUTY-spit the bit last time and now draws the 10 hole for a 2yo who should probably have been shut down at this point. I don't know what to think longterm on this one. Tonight, I think she has no shot. Her breeding makes me keep watching her. I will do that again.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: Seems like 3 legit contenders out of 7, with a couple who have an outside shot if they completely reverse very bad form.

Probable Favorite: BET YA

BROOKDALE SHADOW --wired them from the 10 hole last time, and I can see her racing near the top this time also, with the legit chance to outpace many in here who hang near the end. For the right price.

Value Win Price 9-2

MISS COCO LUCK   leaves well and generally has a shot in this class but comes up short. I will call her 2nd again, for that reason. 

BET YA   just doesn't pace to the wire like she did in the summer when she reached the Preferred. That seems to have taken the zip out of her on the way back down, and up, and down. She is kind of in the middle of all that now, and if she were to regain that, could handle the entire field. I think she might be the fave again, and I don't like her based on that. If she were somehow to draw 4-1, I'd consider her.

 Play Against:

LIGHTS GO OUT was flat last time, after beating up on the lower lights two in a row. She isn't the same anymore and I view many of these as too much for her.

Anticipated Win Price 6-1

D GS PESQUERO is slumping to say the least. Like many in here, her preferred miles appear to have stung her, and she is fighting the uphill battle to overcome that stress. So far, I don't see anything to suggest she can finish as is. 

Anticipated Win Price 10-1

The rest:

REGAL LUCK--comes back from Flamboro, where she didn't win against lesser than she faces here. She tends to hang anyway, and these aren't the type that works well against. Pass on her. She will have to go lower to get my attention again.


TOTAL LEE--quite a bit over her head with these.

Race 9

Overall synopsis: I am going against the top 2 likely chalks here, one a big chalk the other the next in line who has a history of very bad behavior.

Probable Favorite: MARQUIS VOLO

YANKEE PUZZLE   Is 1st time lasix, and grabs Jackie Mo. Plus improved post over two of her last three starts. In the other one, she got up for a distant 2nd to one she meets again. On even terms, she wont beat that one. If that one fails, she is as good as anything left and will bring a price. 

Value Win Price 15-1 

RANDOM LIGHTNING    picked up 3rd last time and is capable enough to be dangerous. Not my top choice for the bomb, but one of them I'd use in the pick 4 who could be the one. But just like my play against's, he could be galloping and long out of it before the first turn.

 Play Against:

MARQUIS VOLO my experience with these types is that even when they burn the chalk players bad they go right back to them and make them almost as big a chalk as the last time.  So, while I think he gets around if Randy is showing up tonight, he can still get beat if he needs to be babied again. Hence, play against, as I did last time.

Anticipated Win Price 3-5

KAMIKAZE LINDY has been away almost a month now, and he has always been iffy to behave due to his well earned name. He is the likeliest one to take advantage of the failure of Marquis Volo, but I will go against him also and look for the homerun.

Anticipated Win Price 4-1

The rest:

ELDORADO OF GOLD S--had post 10 last time, and gets a pass on that. I don't like him anyway, not since he showed up and didn't perform. Adams is terribly poor with trotters. CC sticks with this one, but I'm not sold. I go to others to beat the chalks.

FLEET BUMBLEBEE- picked up the pieces last time, and was full value. I'm not sold he can take them down again. Certainly in the mix, but I like others better. The win last time shortens the price this time. I liked him at those odds  but not shorter this time. He isn't the kind that doubles up.


CANDIDA, WHY ARGUE, JUSTICE DELIGHT--all don't show the ability to overcome the posts they have, at least not for the win. Can't see any of them making the ticket, let alone win.


I JASMIN--shows flashes at times that suggest she can beat a bunch like this at big odds. Post 9 negates the likelihood of that, but not altogether. Very minor longshot chance tonight. She is still on the radar to do that,  at some point this winter. This doesn't look like the spot.

Race 10

Overall synopsis: Very contentious race. You can make a case for or against many of these. I went for a price on a performer who seems to be better in the winter with a driver who also wins more once the weather gets cold.

Probable Favorite: MARLEE B

HOPE FOR PADDY -Fillion chooses the other entry, and there will be a price on this one. She is a late closer, and that might be beneficial here. She has handled these before on her best day. She will have to bring that here to take them all down. She is moving up, but off a win and generally her form has been good and consistent. I can't say that for all of these.

Value Win Price 10-1 

OCEANVIEW BINDI   takes a large class rise to fight with borderline Preferred and some legit ones. She will have to do even more, but she has seemed to have almost no bottom lately. She is in the mix, but not my top choice.

MARLEE B    took them all down last time and is generally in the hunt. If they all don't have good nights, she goes by. That worked last time. More times than not, at this level, she can't pass them and gets a minor share. 

 Play Against:

ARTISTIC MADISON made an uncharted break last time, and now has stayed away 3 weeks. She has to be seen, but for now, as is, I go away from her.

Anticipated Win Price 7-2

The rest:

MARQUISE DE SARAH--got it done last time against weaker,  barely. Before that, she wasn't doing enough, and I still don't see anything that has changed. She is in tough with these and l can't see her making the ticket. She has lost a step or two. She needs that to go with these.


KISS ME OR NOT--these seem way too tough for her, until she proves otherwise. She has a shot at these already, and was well whipped. She looks like filler here to make the class go.


PUTMEINTOGO--seems to be progressing to better form with these types. This is her 3rd back. I think she might need one more, but she could topple them all if she can improve another second and get the right trip.

Race 11

Overall synopsis: Awful bunch I wont bother with. It would just be wishful thinking to pick one of these out of the pack. If you try, play long. The faves are for sure bad value, whoever they are.

Probable Favorite: ADDISON BAY

No comments:

Post a Comment