Thursday, December 10, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 10, 2015


Race 1

Overall synopsis: Very mixed bunch. I went to the outside for a price on a chancy horse who might go forward. Can't say I'm confident in any of these.

Probable Favorite: CRACKLIN ROSIE

BAD AS LEADER --a first time starter last time for Puddy, had the 10 hole, got away last and dug a deep hole, but to her credit, she paced forward and gained back 12 lengths from the half. She draws bad again, but has more experience now. I will call her on the upset angle in a race with some who have suspicious form to count on at short odds.She does bear in at times in the mile. That could be just greenness but she would be a lot better if that could be fixed. I expect Trevor to test her more this time. She is a prospect with a future.

Value Win Price 20-1 

SO RAVEN  gets back in with maidens after a suspect entry last time. These are her kind, but she is still not a winner after many legit chances. Post 8 doesn't help her cause, and there are a few apparent live ones here. Her race 2 back was okay enough to suggest she is in the mix. Hard to back one like this for the win with her past performances.

WARRAWEE RAP    backed away badly last time after gunning out 3 wide and then taking a tuck. She is young. I can forgive her one bad start here and there. She comes right back, so it could have been any number of things. Previously, she has raced okay but not done enough when needed. This isn't a deep bunch. I list her for 3rd. I have suspicions she is going to pop in the next few starts. She is just that type. 

 Play Against:

CRACKLIN ROSIE really had no excuses last time. She left out, got the lead, had one outside her to use as a pick, did so, really got a soft 3rd quarter, but she just didn't have enough when two came to her and went by. That was her first start in months, and she is a 2yo. I can give her some slack there, but I expect she gets bet down again, and I'm not sold she goes all the way, or Luke races her the same way. She is probable for the ticket, but I can't go to her for the win again at the odds I expect.

Anticipated Win Price 5-2

The rest:

WISHES FOR YOU--came alive last time and was right there to take down second. As an almost 4yo maiden, who is 0 for 28, for a trainer known to race horses that almost never win, I want to see her back that last effort up with another one. Drury ditches her for a first time starter for a guy he isn't locked into. I like others better here.

WHITEGLANCE-was trying to bear out at the start last time, in badly in the last turn and stretch. She is a cheap 3 claimer type. Could have went the no-shot route with this one. Another effort like last time, and she will be branded as such if she shows back up at WEG. She gets to drop from nw2 back to maidens. I will give her the very slightest benefit of the doubt on that angle. She still looks like a 50-1 shot to me.

BLISS AND LUCK- draws the 10 hole, and based on what I've seen from her before, that is enough to do her in. She needs a good post and some breather along the way.  Another day for her. I wouldn't outright toss her though. If there is a scratch here and there, and she would somehow get away 3rd or 4th and luck into some kind of flow on the rail, she could pop back out and come on again. Unlikely scenario, but not out of the question.


ROMANCE WRITER--ships in from Yonkers, with a new trainer, gets  Fillion, and looks reasonable enough. Have to really see her. She doesn't do enough on paper to suggest she is that dangerous, unless the trainer found something and she can go forward. She is only dangerous here on the unknown factor. I'd be more inclined to think she is just NFG than something that will step up. She is also more than 3 weeks since her last race.


AMBROSIA SEELSTER--is a first time starting half sister to Aniston Seelster. Her qually was good, but her 10-1 ML is far from what you are likely to get. I could see her being in the 4-1 range, or even lower. I want to see her compete one time first and then make a judgement call. Up The Credit foals are much like he was...very variable. Her back half was impressive and Hall usually sends them out ready.

MACH MISS--made a very dirty break down the backside two starts back. It looked like she wants to go too much, hit a knee while she was being rated. Last time, she was slightly better, although still acting very green at times, almost running again. Phil kept her back a shade after that, giving her room to make mistakes and still keep pacing, which she did. When angled for room, she paced forward strong. I thought about listing her for the win, but she is still too mistake prone to go to for me. J Mac is back in the bike, and he knows her now. One more and hopefully she gets it. I am watching. She looks like a good prospect over time.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: This group is so suspect, in any pick play,  I'd have to take them all. Period.

Probable Favorite: KILMER ROAD

WHAT A PEACH --has a win in the summer at Georgian, when he got out fast, backed the half down and just kept going. That is typical of how a horse like this wins at a track like that. Most of the ones behind him probably ran or were trying to. He ran last time, but he caught my eye parading and how he finished the time before as a prospect. This field is wafer thin on talent and form. For the price, I'd play this one, with about as much confidence as I'd have in playing a cat to start barking.

Value Win Price 12-1 

GREGO  follows along with minimal talent and will pick up pieces until the cows come home. Like many of Hudon's, he knows when to not win with a type that would be drowning once he does to make money. I expect the same here. This is such a bad bunch, he might not have any choice but to win. I still wouldn't play him for that.

 Play Against:

KILMER ROAD gets Phil again, and his first out was pretty good. In his qualifier, he looked to be a blow up candidate if pushed, but he was managed well in the race last time and certainly trotted an impressive back half for a first time starter. That probably gets him bet this time. I find Holiday Road foals to go off form extremely fast, make lots of breaks, and have issues holding soundness and form. Since I saw hints of trouble in the qualifier, I will play against a 2yo trotter here who has to show me consistency before I take a shorter price.

Anticipated Win Price 5-2

METS LIFE has never impressed me at any point, and her last was no different. She simply has no finish. Ben B can't fix them all.This is her 2nd start back off a layoff, and she has only made 3 starts this entire year. She is likely to get play on the 2nd start angle, combined with the Ben B angle and a drop back in with maidens. I will go against her. I would think she is very close to being shipped out the door to someone who races B track types for a living. Ben B does not.

Anticipated Win Price 7-2

The rest:

J N RYDER--is 0 for 24 and at times this year has chased stakes horses and got cheques.  His last quarters are suspect to say the least. Just another one in here who is hard to like. In fact,  I don't like any of them tonight.


TOY IS OURS--is very hard to like off those lines on the page. We all know Vanderkamp is a cagey guy to rate chances from, but with post 8 and the lack of high speed, consistency, and even experience, I have to pass on this one. Anyone else by Vanderkamp and I toss this one outright.


TATTLE TALE HALL--needs to get around clean once before she can even be considered. That has yet to happen in a race. She has issues going to the gate. Maybe there is some talent there. As we have seen with many Dewey's, that is a trait that comes with nice ability when they can put it all together. She could be a bombs away candidate this winter. I will keep my eye on her.

RESULTS MAY VARY--is an interesting prospect.  Three qualies for Gaetan Hebert, who is a master blacksmith. You don't see him train many or even any I can recall for outside people. Bodz, the owner, is a decent trainer in his own right. I would think this has to be a test drive, and I will watch to see how that goes.  Most Federal Flex foals are monster rats anyway. The jury is out. Very far out here. I have no idea what to expect.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: More maiden trotters,  with spotty form. Just another Thursday night at the office. Total guesswork here.

Probable Favorite: WANAKA

WANAKA --was raced from the back in her first lifetime start by Trevor for his trainer wife and he is the owner. That was a good start. Based on the chancy nature of the 5 horse, this one figures to be the favorite. I will play her on that, but reluctantly. I want to see her parade,  and make sure she is well behaved and sound after having to go a real racemile. Her sires foals are loons in most cases, and they can lose soundness on a dime. If I'm going to take 5-2 here, I need to at least think she makes it to the turn clean and can get around sound. She needs to start better and closer to win the race.

Value Win Price 5-2

UNE DUHARAS  is the obvious wild card in this race. First time Ben B from Sowerby. Sowerby is a solid guy and competent, but he isn't Ben B with trotters. This one is as chancy as they come, and could run again here, or even be tested driven and come up short. She will take enough play on the Ben B angle that I wouldn't play her straight up for the win, but would have to add her to the picks.

TALA SEELSTER    has made 8 starts as a 2yo, and showed at least some speed and trotted most of the time. She chased Grassroots fillies all year, and now tries the maiden after two qualifiers. She has a shot. Budd is the type that can turn this kind into a decent racehorse, like he did with Meadow Seelster over time. If something is coming out of the pack to take down a favorite here, its probably this one. 

 Play Against:

FABULOUS HENRI was very rammy last time. JJ was see sawing him before the start and after he ran. Looks like he hit a knee and ran because of that. He might be okay at long odds if he bombs a few times and then gets his act together. Might. I wont touch him tonight and would be happy to take his action. 2.01 at Hoosier is about what I can trot if I'm fit. Even a 2 claimer could trot that. He shows nothing to suggest he should be 20-1, but he will take action again I suspect.

Anticipated Win Price 2-1

AMITYVILLE LINDY has looked horrid on the track every time I've ever seen him. He is about as bad gaited a trotter as you can find at this track. I am not sure why Bax hasn't shipped him yet.

Anticipated Win Price 7-2

The rest:


MAGIC SON--first time starter for Steacy with unimpressive qualifiers. He will have to be seen.

MERCHANDISER--is a big ticket yearling flop for Takter who didn't make it, making breaks at every point. He shows up here with Peck, who qualified him and got him around, and puts Fillion up. Who freaking knows with one like this? I would think the goal would be to just get him around clean and then sell him after the next start if shows any promise. I could see this one landing in Ben B's barn at some point.


LITTLE STUIE--based on what I've seen of this one, and how dangerous he is to steer, in addition to his lack of overall ability, this is one I can toss in a race where its hard to toss anything.

Race  4

Overall synopsis: Deetzy is 9-1 ML.  So I will just say it. WTF? I thought he was post time favorite material looking at the early entries. Mixed bag and trip will play a great role here. I have no viable win play. I'd take about 5 in here to kick it off and hope I get to the next leg. The 6th one would be Antar Phil. I'd take the 4 I list above him, including my play against, and my longshot chance. That should cover it.

Probable Favorite: DEETZY

Value Win Price 18-1 

DEETZY  can leave slightly better with this post, and if out in the flow with live cover, can be right with them at the wire. I am hesitant to play any Jereme's Jet horse on top at this track, and that burned me again on Monday when one stopped at the tote board---again. I will go with my gut and place him 2nd,  although he figures for a great shot to win.

SWORD OFTHE SPIRIT    picked up the typical bad Jones steer last time, and packed it in. That means he is a huge price tonight in with these from the 7 hole. He could make the ticket if Jones uses his head this time. Even win. I'd use him on the pick 4 ticket. He has shown high ability at times. 

 Play Against:

SOAKING UP THE SUN was very tough to control at times for Fillion last time, a problem this horse shows most of the races I've seen. When he goes, and is sound, and gets his nose near the front, he is very tough. He moves up a shade here, but Moreau/Fillion drives the price down I suspect. I hate him more than like him, so I go against. If his price rises above what I anticipate,  I leave him,  but don't play him. He might be value if that happens, but he scares me. Win 4 ticket add for sure.

Anticipated Win Price 7-2

The rest:

HEY DALI--beat these last time with a decent effort, and was good the time before although the trip didn't work out. I'm not sold he keeps producing and the way he struggled to pass the 2nd place horse last time suggests to me he is more of a bit player than play for the win here. 

STEVES LEGACY-the classic Jereme's Jet hanger. No thanks. He will luck into a win once or twice this winter. This doesn't look like the spot to me.

ANTAR PHIL- draws bad here and has poor form. I can't see it. He starts bad enough to suggest he would have to pass a lot of them. That isn't likely based on what he brings to the table. 


MYHONEYTELLSALL--has longshot potential here. I don't like him, but he has shown on occasion he steps up and produces. Not my preference,  but if he tripped out, he could get it done at a big price. I would think 20-1 or higher is in the ballpark here.


CASIMIR OVERDRIVE--has been off 5 weeks, and takes the high tag here, so he gets the far outside. I will watch to see what is up here.


SHIPPEN OUT--finally got it done last time,against a highly suspect bunch. He now has to be tagged, and he doesn't look solid with many of these. He is 3-1 ML , and I can't see that. But no matter what, I don't see him on the ticket here. Pass and toss.

CHARLOTTES COLONY--one trick pony who needs the lead and wont get it here. And if he did, he would be hard used to do that and then come under attack, and back through them. No thanks. Toss.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: A few options here, but I stick with the dropping favorite, 2nd time Nixon who has showed flashes of talent along the way to suggest his breeding is legit and not a mirage. He better step up tonight.

Probable Favorite: SABINE PASS

SABINE PASS --this is the type that gets beat in a race like this. But, he is dropping back from nw2,  and that was a somewhat deep bunch in his first for Nixon off a purchase and a layoff. He can get  a pass for some of that. He also met a tough winner, and the one who took him a long way before letting him by, then paced in 51 Monday night, right back. This guy was 3 high on the turn then flattened out. If he can duplicate that last mile, leave better and take another second off, he should get it done. I wouldn't take a shade under my value price here, which I am already pushing my luck to even accept that.

Value Win Price 9-5

BAD GAMER  was a decent 4th in his first ever start. He had the 10 hole then, was 100-1, and came on late for 4th with a mostly weak group. He can step up here. He went in 56 and change and he will need at least 2 more seconds to win this. I think my top choice is ahead of him at this point, so he might not have enough if he is legit in the first place. I will go to listing him 2nd this time, but the top choice has suspect chances based on his lack of winning attitude. The better post certainly helps this guys chances here.

SHADOWFALL   ships in from Flamboro off two good lines, both where he burned the chalk players. As if Vanderkamp cares. He was there to teach this horse to race, go a bit faster, and he did that. Now he comes here and will attempt to convert that. I will call him 3rd against a few who show a lot more current speed. He wouldn't shock me if he is getting his picture taken tonight.

 Play Against:

METTA WORLD PEACE picks up Fillion and I see him as an overbet. He did win first start Libby last time at Flamboro and comes here ready. Others like slightly ahead of him on the form cycle, and he is a 2yo facing older ones. Just enough to go against him if he goes off the shorter price than he deserves if I am correct.

Anticipated Win Price 3-1

The rest:

SPANIARD--is back in action after a freshening. He shows speed and ability, and as such, I think Luke buries him tonight and gets him  around. I think he can make the ticket, but can't see him winning this.

MUSIC TO MY GEARS--shows nothing to suggest he gets a cheque tonight. He will have to at least keep up at to show if he is anything more than a 2 claimer at some point. I gave him the benefit of the doubt last time because of Kingshott. That ship has sailed. 

LEON B FAITHFUL--I wouldn't play this mutt from a good post, let alone the 10 hole.

NO TROUBLE HERE--the program speaks for itself here. Another filler type. 

SPORTS COLOGNE--and yet another. This one hasn't even got the hope that he is learning. He has learned to be no good and isn't improving.

CLASSIC BOLT --as Brittany would say. Hit me baby one more time. Another non performer with zero hope for the ticket, unless there is some sort of commotion.

Race 6

Overall synopsis: I will pass on this bunch. I had a hard time even coming up with anything that could be a logical favorite. Take them all unless you hate something. 

Probable Favorite: NO IDEA

Race 7

Overall synopsis: They are what they are. I went to the gas trainer angle and against a few I don't like for various reasons. Price has to be there to maintain the play.

Probable Favorite: CYNDALIANNE DUC

B SANTANNAS LOVE --I will call on top on the Waxman  angle in a group of very suspect plays. Hoping she doesn't take lots of action and will be a fair price. Her form is good and she has won at this track before. Those couldn't possibly have been any better than this sorry lot. Gas her up Isaac and have A Mac step on the accelerator. 9-1 ML is not realistic, I will take the bare minimum of my listed value price. No less.

Value Win Price 4-1 

CYNDALIANNE DUC  hangs around and could get it done this time. But, she likes to be 2nd, and I can't see taking a short price at any point on one like this. I suppose you would have to add her to the picks, but she is hard to like on the straight win front. She has zero grit and doesn't pace to the wire. Another who stamps her sire's traits.

MARIGOLD BLOOM    takes a big class dive here, but needs to. She is a lukewarm 3rd place call. She is one of those who can find multiple ways to lose. 

 Play Against:

WHISTYS PARADISE got on the vets list last time and should have been on it before that. No thanks. If she is somewhat sound, let her beat me. She might not make it past the vet in the post parade this time.

Anticipated Win Price 2-1

The rest:

JENNA CASIMIR--her last two have been very bad. She could pop. She has turned around fast before. I have to go elsewhere.

JET HOT STUFF--gets away from the 10 hole here but still doesn't show me that she has found the soft enough bunch to get near the win. She is more of a January or February type, when they are really thin and soft. Not just yet.

ROMANTIC FEVER- doesn't do enough for any win call. She could make the ticket.


REGIL MEG--continues to draw outside, and she is the type that needs the front or close to it. I will wait, and keep my eye on her. There is a score here at some point. Not tonight I suspect.


BRAVEHEARTEDMILLIE--popped at boxcars two back, but was back on the NFG train last time. No thanks. Ship sailed. Missed the boarding call. Too late now.

IDA SOFIA--post 10 with Mario with this thing? Pass.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: Tough race to play. I have comments and preferences here, but its very lukewarm.

Probable Favorite: CALIFORNIA RACHEL

GRAND PREMIERE --took a run at the leader and winner last time but couldn't pass her. Good first out effort for Allard and trainer. That was almost a month between starts and he comes right back here. If he can get away okay from the pylons, he has a legit shot. No cinch for sure. One of 4 or 5 I could see here.

Value Win Price 5-2

CALIFORNIA RACHEL  put it together finally last time for Weber and Fillion, who stays on the team. That is important for one like this. She will have to go more this time, but she was under wraps last time. She has a shot. Almost took her as my top choice. Coin flip.

SECRET MISSY    stepped up last time and showed she belongs. A better post this time gives her a chance to show if she can do a bit more than that. Jury is out, but it should be acid test time. Upset potential is there with this one. 

 Play Against:

DERIVATIVE I'm not sold this one is legit and will back up that effort based on what I've seen of him before, who was behind him last time and how many breakers there were in that entire field. He appears to be sucker money if he gets bet off that race.

Anticipated Win Price 6-1

The rest:

PRINCESS ELSA--swooped some really weak maidens last time. Pass for me here.

CRAZY BLUE--loses Fillion here. I mentioned last week why I don't like this one, and you can look that up. Just has no finish and runs in consistently. That adds up to small shares.


BENVENUTI--I thought could step up at a big price last time, but he had steering issues again and blew up. Looked like he broke a trotting hopple. I will just watch tonight. I like his talent. I want to see him be a shade more mature and managable.

JOYOUS HALL-bad post really hurts this one.There are just too many legit options to think she could take all of them down on her best day even if she is as good as the last two, which is debatable. If they all bombed, she has a shot. They probably wont.


STRIKNGLYIMPRESIVE-9 hole and this ones performance=ditch.

B FLOREAL--same as above. and the 10 hole.

Race 9

Overall synopsis: Can't pick a winner here. I will just say I think something of value comes out of the pack and guns down the probable chalk. I don't know who. Go deep with a few you like for that chance.

Probable Favorite: READ THE PROPOSAL

READ THE PROPOSAL  was the chalk last time and I can't see him not being so again. He loves the front, and can get it. But, he just doesn't pace to the wire. I am not sure which horrid one comes out of the pack here, but somebody picks him off. I call him for 2nd, possibly 3rd if he gets run a bit to the half or the turn. If he somehow got breather he might last. Can't count on that. 

STEVE SAID    finished well enough last time to be considered a threat here. Like many of these. He isn't that much better or worse than them, but his last line is a lot better. Minor shot for the minor upset.

 Play Against:

VEGILANTE HANOVER will likely take lots of tote money tonight. He has a lot of issues, and when you add them up, it makes it hard to back him. He is 3-1 ML, and I'm not sure how accurate that is, but if so, or close to it, he is sucker money. He needs a lot of finessing at the start and at certain points to even be pacing on the final turn.

Anticipated Win Price 7-2

IMKEEPNTHISGUY turned it around last time, and will probably take some action because of that. He looked awful for a few starts before that. I am not sold he wont revert right back to being NFG.  Pass for me.

Anticipated Win Price 4-1

The rest:

TWIN B SPORTSMAN--drops here into this claimer, but he has looked lame for some time. Cal Campbell is capable of fixing that up, but I am not sold he can do it with this one. Pass for me. If right, he could be the one who beats the chalk. 

SKY GUY--is yet another who shows flashes of talent and yet disappoints more times than not. He could be a decent aged horse. For tonight, he is in the pack with a shot if he trips out. 

MIDNIGHT PLAY- yet another. as good as any, not much better than the rest.  He is 2 for 38 to this point. If you are going to take a flyer, I think you pick another. I would. He meets tougher here.


DRAFT SEELSTER--had big speed in early summer at Grand River, but has fallen off the form wagon since. They tried Jackie Mo and he couldn't help or solve him. He could pop any time. He could also go 6 more starts and not get a cheque. Your call. Watch him closely in the post parade to see if he looks good. If he does,  and plus Fillion, he might be worth a flyer in here.

HALF A BILLION--is the wildcard in this bunch. He comes in off a decent win in 56 at Rideau, goes for Giles and has an outside post. Price will be big. This horse has never traveled well, but if Giles is still hooked up with Hebert, there could be some shoeing adjustment made here. That could be a monster upgrade in this ones performance.

Race 10

Overall synopsis: Play for price, and take a shot. Its anybody's race.

Probable Favorite: BIG PETES STYLE

JACK THE BRIDGE --I will take a crazy flyer on this one. Off 6 weeks, and he goes for this trainer who turned Vital Sign into a pretty nice horse. I have no clue who this guy is, but he gets results. He should be close to boxcars. 

Value Win Price 35-1 

BIG PETES STYLE  gets classified where he can compete, if he can do what he has been doing lately, which is do enough to get around poorly to the top of the lane and then accelerate in the straight line. If he can do all that he could be there at the wire. He does finish well when he gets rolling. These aren't as hard to go by. They come back to you.

EL TORERO    draws inside and has the gate speed to make the most of it. I don't like him for the win, but he could achieve that with this bunch at a healthy price. I will go even bigger longshot for my win play

The rest:

ROCK THE DREAM--at times looks like he will run if he is not managed. I can't go near this one. Unless he is somehow fixed,  he is not viable.

ALEXAS PRAYER--I don't think he has bottomed out enough even with this bunch to be that dangerous. He will have to prove me wrong.

MAN OF MANY ARTS- came late last time and didn't miss by much. I could see him, but went elsewhere. He just doesn't do enough.

HIGH RESOLUTION- had zip last time and now makes the obvious drop, which he needed to do. I will watch him, but he has a minor shot on that angle only.


REGAL FAME--dives in for a tag, and that gives him upset potential from the outside. I don't like him myself. I think he is better off at the B's.


ARNOLD DICK--stepped up and raced well last time. Post 9 really hurts his chances. He isn't the type that can give away 5 more lengths at the start and get those back. Another day for him.


JET BLACK CADILLAC--post 10, monster rat, that's enough for me.

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