Saturday, December 12, 2015
WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 12, 2015
Overall synopsis: Can Mohawk Warrior go down tonight and blow up the pick 5? I think he can and will play it that way. He might be good for one or two more dominant efforts. Its not if, but when he blows up in my view.
Probable Favorite: MOHAWK WARRIOR
ON THE ROCKS --was buried last time after a bit of an overdrive the time before. He had no shot at the winner but he took the balance and he shows the talent to come along and do a bit better. Randy is a money driver in the stakes races and I am playing that he is gunning this time, lets Mohawk Warrior go and takes him at the tote board. I don't see any others coming from behind those two and passing them both. Top call for the healthy price.
Value Win Price 12-1
MOHAWK WARRIOR notes below
MOHAWK WARRIOR was bearing in noticably in the first turn last time, and did a bit of that in his first start on this circuit. Fillion just managed them and then used his speed to overpower that bunch. I feel if there is heat put on him, he will wilt. That might be tonight. It might be in the final. At a likely 1-5 tonight, I will take my chances tonight is the night.
Anticipated Win Price 1-5
ROCKINONBY--hangs around and is certainly one that is capable if the big chalk isn't at his best tonight. He isn't my choice however. Others look better to me. He just doesn't do enough at the end to beat top shelf types.
NATURESCAPE--got a very heads up steer by McNair last time. He stayed out of the crazy early speed and simply picked off the balance of anything that was left for 2nd money when those were tired battling to the half. He has a shot at 3rd here, but he is another I think is a cut below when it matters.
SPORTS WARNING- seems to have a 52 ceiling at this point, and while he might make 51 on a good day, or a sounder day, that is unlikely here. The farther he goes up the ladder, the more his shuffling gait and shortness at the tote board comes into play. I can't see him being dangerous in here.
PACE SEELSTER--is beyond overmatched here. 100-1 territory.
PAN STREET USA--folded it up last time as expected and I see nothing to suggest he can go with the top 2 or 3 in this race.
Overall synopsis: The winner looks like a cinch, but I don't like the obvious 2nd choice and will play it that way.
Probable Favorite: CAJON LIGHTNING
CAJON LIGHTNING --appears untouchable at the moment. He can only beat himself by doing something stupid. Otherwise, he has many lengths on this entire bunch. Who knows how good this one is?The only plays here are singling him in something or playing him on top of an exactor or triactor and beating something off the ticket.
Value Win Price: none.
SHADES OF BAY raced well last time, almost 3 weeks out, and if right would have a shot at 2nd money. He does have large gaps in his races, and that concerns me enough, on top of who he beat last time and how easy a trip he got. I will go against him for 2nd and try to get value for an exotic play.
Anticipated Win Price 12-1
THE ROCK--made a nice close out of the clouds last time for 2nd. He isn't very sound, but if he parades well I would think of using him on the bottom of a straight exactor for some value.
HOT DEUCE--romped at Flamboro last time, but the 2nd horse is probably a marginal phony 10 claimer. Pass for me. He is better off beating up on those types at London and Flamboro than wasting his time chasing these.
ROLLING ROCK- is coming along but moves up the ladder in a premature move here and looks to be swamped. His gate speed allows him a shot to luck into 2nd if you don't like my choice for that. That is possible in the 5 horse race for 2nd money.
TOWER OF POWER--has not impressed me in any way from what I've seen and I wouldn't like him back in easier conditions, let alone facing a bearcat in the making here. No shot.
Overall synopsis: I will go away from the top faves here for the upset. Two I like for that, although it is possible my top choice gets bet and I'm wrong there. Drivers and trip race, and we could see some Western rodeo behavior to the half.
Probable Favorite: AMERICAN ROCK
SHOCK N ROCK --is a completely different animal from the one who raced here in the past. He carries his speed a long way now, and will take some air if needed. I will play him in this spot from mid pack after some others who look like they want the front and will battle hard into submission.
Value Win Price 7-1
CHUCARO ACERO BC is an interesting horse. He started his career in Argentina, and was never beat. He came here and took time to get used to the climate change, did so and racked up 80k in earnings, winning his share against better than these. Last time, 10 hole, no shot for him. He simply is not the type to try if he can't get away near the top tier. That wont be a problem here and I'd call him for the upset or close to it. He will be a big price off his last, and is certainly capable. Third start Menary and he should have figured him out by now.
AMERICAN ROCK has certainly improved for Moreau, and has returned to the high promise he showed in the spring. These however, are much tougher than last time and I'm not sure he can take them all. He has a shot, but I like a couple of others better. If I keyed my top 2 choices in race 1 and 2, I'd for sure use this guy in the pick 5.
VELOCITY DRIVEN is very sharp right now, but has trouble winning at this level and higher when he meets some resistance. He usually races from behind, and that might favor him here. I see him coming late and making the ticket, but not coming all the way.
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
THORN IN YOUR SIDE beat these last time he faced them. Will A Mac blast here? Bahahaha. Yeah, I just wrote that. Anyway, who goes with him and puts pressure on him?
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
MCKINNEY--takes a monster class rise after blowing out rat city types on Monday. He has been in this class and higher in the past, but his bigger issue is the need for the front and he is usually not willing to sit in and save some energy. I like others better in this spot. This is a deep field. Pass for me.
HUNCH MAN--won a step below 3 back but has struggled with these. Too many options in here to think he is the one. Two more starts and he is out of jail and back down the ladder. This is start one in that endeavor.
BIG CITY JEWEL--gets the perfect setup here if the battling happens. I don't see him going by all these this time, as he moves up with the winner last time and meets far tougher. He could make the ticket if the right things happen.
Overall synopsis: First leg of the pick 4. I'd go 5 deep to be safe. My 3 top picks, my longshot chance and the newcomer from Philly. That should cover it and I have no idea which of those it is.
Probable Favorite: VEGAS ROCKS
CHEYENNE REIDER --gets post 10, however, he has one thing in his favor. Other than Shamballa, for a piece, at any point in the mile, he is probably the fastest horse at this track. His one move brush is off the charts. That could get him to the top again here. But will he get that breather he got last time? That is very doubtful. I put him on top, but it is about as lukewarm a call as you can make.
VEGAS ROCKS wasn't traveling well again last time, and now goes back to claimers. If the rain comes tonight as they say it will, that will hurt his chances again. Because of Waxman,and that A Mac is likely to gas him out of there, he could simply run and hide on them. On that angle, I give him a shot. He has been facing some very tough customers of late and beating them when he was right. He avoids all of them here and only has to get back to where he was a month ago to be the one. Big if, but its a reasonable angle to play on.
HIT AND GIGGLE A hit an impossible bunch of tough ones last time and was just taken around the track.These are more his kind, but he isn't the best of this lot most nights. If the trip work out though, he can be the one if they fail or get the worst of it. Minor shot, but I go elsewhere for the win.
CRAFTY MASTER--has declined in the last few weeks after looking very sharp but getting trips that hurt his chances. In the past, he hasn't been the most durable, and he has been going for quite a while now. He didn't travel well at all last time, and I can't touch him now. He might have to drop another level to get my interest back.
MAC RAIDER--strikes me as a shade over his head with these. I don't know where he fits on this circuit. Possibly a class riser and dropper in conditions when winter sets in. I will pass on him here and I'd toss him for the pick 4. He doesn't have enough grit to fend all of these off. McNair picked against his dads horse here.
CARRACCI HANOVER--makes the move to claimers here, as needed, and he is a wakeup candidate on that angle. These are probably tougher than what has been beating him, but he was good enough at one time to handle the entire field and he is only 4. The jury is out on him. I haven't liked his overall lack of effort lately, but he has been on a line a bit and if that was corrected, he is in play here.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
TENDTOWIN--made a nice first over score at London last time, but these are a much different ballgame. He is a bit player at best here, but I'd watch him if they write a 15 claimer in the coming weeks, which seems likely with some new people shipping horses and less opportunity at the B's for the winter. He'd fit that nicely.
CROCADILE CANYON--ships in from Philly, 2nd off the claim for the latest trainer to move her stock to this circuit. He knows how to win and make money, and some of the likely faves in here have big enough holes in them to suggest one like this could step up, but I will watch him one time. Philly shippers are hard to rate class wise on the track change, and I can't be certain this one isn't a step below these.
UF BETTORS HANOVER--actually meets tougher here on the move into claimers. I'd say he is more in the 12 to 15 range than legit with these. He wears spreaders and struggles in the turns, which is why he was so good at Vernon. He needs to go much lower and even then I have a hard time liking him at this track. Perfect KD or Georgian type if they were still racing.
AMBLE OVER HANOVER--2nd off the layoff and is another who needs more class relief than this race. Perhaps a straight 20 where he can draw to the middle of the car. Not in this spot.
Overall synopsis: The chalk shows up and does what he is capable of, and they all race for 2nd. I will give some opinions on who I think is value if he happens not to show up or blow up. That is unlikely, but we have seen that movie a few times lately.
Probable Favorite: MUSICAL RHYTHM
MUSICAL RHYTHM --has much the best written all over him. He only has to show up be what he has been since he arrived. These types don't always do that, but he doesn't meet many in here who look dangerous to take him even if he is a cut below that for some reason. I will give him the top call and single him in the pick 4. Win price wont be there to bother here.
No Value Win Price 2-5
HERBIES WILDFLOWER was a surprising favorite on Monday night and raced to win, first up and went a long way before giving way. She comes back on 5 days, but might have needed that start. I liked what I saw and will call her 2nd to the obvious play. If he bombs, she could be the value play. I'd hope to see 8-1 on here if he gets hammered and Moreau's takes the logical action he should.
SILVERHILL VOLO goes first time Moreau, and that is the obvious angle here. He does have X's all over the page, so that is the elephant in the room. Did Moreau solve that? How long has he had him? Post parade is important here. He will have to be seen. The connections are searching for answers on this top bred son of Muscle Hill. We see those turn around very fast at times. But, so many of them just run at the start. Your call. I will call him 3rd and watch to see if I can detect anything. If he goes good, I will look up his replays from before and see if there has been any improvement. If he runs, who cares for now?
IN SECRET raced Monday night and comes right back on 5 days. His last two were good, almost getting to the very well meant winner Monday from way back, and trotting a strong first up 2nd best to the one he meets again here. I don't like this type on short rest, and I will go against him for that. He has issues that pop up from time to time, and racing him potentially sore could further that possibility. I'm not sure he beats the chalk either way.
Anticipated Win Price 10-1
JUANITAS FURY--keeps grinding away as Bax hopes for a turnaround. She just doesn't seem to have the answers. Eventually she probably clicks in, but I will go elsewhere. She is another coming back on 5 days rest. That isn't preferable for her either.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
TWIGGYS TWICK--draws better here but this is still a tough spot for her. No cheque here and she gets to dive to the bottom. I am watching to see how she looks for that attempt. She isn't always the most consistent type.
MEADOW SEELSTER-Budd always has to be respected, so I will keep watching for another day. 10 hole plus her form does her in tonight, but she could dive and be dangerous in a few weeks.
KEN KAN WIN--went Markle to Ben B, which made him a cinch Monday night, and immediately exited that barn. He is now back to a no shot type under that care.
JUDY THE BEAUTY--has terrible form, a bad post and a driver who took a non winning longshot from the 9 hole over her. She was good much of this year, but should be shut down and rested by now. She wont see my money unless that happens. She is spent.
JAYPORT ALL MUSCLE--a 100-1 plus longshot from the 9 hole who is so far over his head in here that I can't even find the words.
Overall synopsis: My best chalk to beat tonight is Putmeintogo. Reasons in the comments.
Probable Favorite: PUTMEINTOGO
KISS ME OR NOT --gets my top call on the big class drop, and generally she fights a lot harder than she used to when engaged. It's well known she can leave a ton if you wish to do so, and she now also will sit in and come back out with some zip. That makes her the winner here if the chalk bombs as I expect and she is in just the right position to take advantage of a decent enough trip.
Value Win Price 7-2
REGAL LUCK drops and these are more in her range now. She beat these the last time she faced them and post 7 is a decent post to use her gate speed here. If she can trip out, she is as good as any of these right now. Her will to win is still in question, so I go to my top pick over her. That one simply tries harder when it matters.
LIGHTS GO OUT gets class relief,which will certainly help her. Because she has been at the top of the mountain before, she always gets that respect. And in some ways, gets her overbet in spot like this. She is in the mix, but she isn't quite the mare she was about a year ago.
PUTMEINTOGO pulled 2nd up on live cover last time, gapped that and was steering bad, dangerous bad. I noted the race before she had no pace and would need to drop multiple classes to get her act together. And now, here she is. I am not certain she is ready to drop and pop here. She might do that in a start or two, but she could burn some chalk on the way to a turnaround. I will go with that here. She has multiple issues, including that she is tricky on the gate, tosses her head when rated, and can get so sore she is hard to steer on the turns. That makes her hard to like at odds on.
Anticipated Win Price 6-5
YOUR MY SECRET--came on late last time to get 3rd, but is still lazy, a non trier with head sideways much of the way. She hard to rely on when she starts to meet the better ones she now has to face as she won her way out of the bottom nw conditions. I will wait to see if she is any better tonight. I doubt she is and I don't see her making the super here.
FOOLISH MIND--is not my preferred play, but I wouldn't toss her either. She is the type who can leave and find a hole down the lane if one appears. She has longshot potential in this class, and I'd be tempted to toss her on the pick 4 if I had room for one more when my ticket is formed. For the win, I'd pass on her. So many things would have to go right.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
DOCS HOLLYWOOD--in two starts over this track, she has not traveled well. I think its time to start thinking about a claimer to find a class she can compete in before lameness might set in. I am off her bandwagon. I was looking for her to step up, and I feel now she is not going to do so.
DIANNA SANTANNA--is off almost a month vet scratch sick, and even on her best day has trouble winning the bottom class which isn't filled with several who can win the Preferred when good, which many still look like they are. No thanks.
REGALLY READY--caught as soft a bunch as you can meet last time from a good post and made no mistakes. Good for her. Party is over. No shot from this post in this group. Zeron will hope to pick up 4th or 5th if he can manage it here.
TRUE REFLECTION--probably looking at 100-1 plus here. No shot for the win from post 10. She is close to hitting the bottom soon. She can be rated when that time comes.
Overall synopsis: I was tempted to go to Nickle Bag off his last line, but I will not. He takes major play here off that, and I'm not sold he deserves that. These aren't soft, and he still has not reproduced what he was before the drug thingy.
Probable Favorite: NICKLE BAG
HIS BOY ELROY --finds road trouble as a rule, because of his style. Last time, he came up the rail, but got shut off and had no room to go forward. He might have been the winner. He gets that comment a lot in my notes because he keeps being driven that way. One of these days the hole opens and he just drives on through. For a decent price I will take my shot tonight is that night.
Value Win Price 15-1
C L ART MAGIC was used very hard last time to get control, then gave it up and tried to stay with one who outclasses him. That took the air out of his balloon. He can do better with most of these, and Fillion seems to know him well. I could see him winning, but he is a bit too trip dependent for me to call him for that.
SOUTHWIND AMAZON takes a slight drop and was right there with better. Zeron is red hot, both as a driver and trainer lately. I could have listed this one on top, but I thought the value might be better on another. I'd certainly use him in the pick 4 and he wouldn't shock me if he got his picture taken tonight.
NICKLE BAG he is a bad, but plausible favorite. I just think others are more justified, and I will wait for a better price when the pack is completely fed up with him burning them.
Anticipated Win Price 2-1
ERLE DALE N--comes right back with these, and with a better post this time. Still, he has not proved that he can be top shelf with the better ones in here. He will have to show me he can handle better than Adkins Hanover, who is probably a 20 claimer now. Many of these would be double that tag if they were tagged. His class is in question, and the bloom is off the Adams rose.
VICTOR BAYAMA--moves up and was only one of many below. I can't see him being very dangerous in this spot. Pass for me. On his best day, he can take these. That doesn't seem to be the current status.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
MOONWRITER--will have to be seen, on the comeback trail now that the OSS is over. He gets Lasix off the rest, and lets see what kind of conditioned horse he is. At times, Randy buried him and saved him, and that is an indication he might not be up to this type now that the protection factor of open competition is removed. On the fence with him.
MACHAL JORDAN--does a lot better when he goes a step lower than this. I don't like him in this spot, and will wait. I'm not sold he jogs in that spot either. He can get very lame at times and he has to be watched pre-drop.
APPRENTICE HANOVER-comes off the shelf, 9 hole and no lasix. He will have to be seen. He was less than impressive all summer burning chalk like an arsenist on crack.
Overall synopsis: Very tough bunch to like. I played the first time Waxman angle, which is suspect here but there isn't much to go on with this non performing group. I'd have to be firm with the price, and I think it will be lower than I'm looking for. No win situation as a win bettor here.
Probable Favorite: DONTTELLRUSS
DONTTELLRUSS --has been off a month, and hits the Waxman gas station looking for some high octane. She has won at this track before, but beware of playing her without watching her parade. She can be very wonky gaited, and even Waxman can't overcome that if she blows up. If she is okay to watch parade,I'd think she takes this very bad bunch. If the ML is the ML, that says a lot about what she has to compete against here.
Value Win Price 5-2
KAYLA GRACE has big time finishing ability, but leaves too much to do, as she did last time. No change here, and she is likely trying to get up for 3rd this time, which she didn't even do last time.
D GS PESQUERO takes the big class dive, but she isn't the same anymore or reliable period. She could go off the fave, or more likely a close 2nd fave. I will take that action. She has looked horrid at times and I haven't seen anything to suggest she has turned that form around for the drop and pop attempt. She needs more pop to execute the pop on the drop.
Anticipated Win Price 5-2
BRESCIA SEELSTER--is ofer the season,and has no pace most nights. Mario doesn't seem to want to trip her out, and that only makes her less gritty, getting her butt kicked. Until I see some sign of life, I continue to go against her. She needs to start passing horses, not get passed. I'd hope for a barn change soon.
P L HURRICANE--doesn't win races. Period. Pass for me. I've never liked her.
SOUTHWIND GEISHA- drops down, but does not travel well even when she does well.She is hard to like, and I wont play her. She seems the type that might just not be able to keep racing past a few more starts.She is tough, but soundness does her in.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
SPORTS CHIC--comes off the layoff after a bad season, after breaking down as a 2yo. Some of those never come back good. Others do eventually, but it takes a long time. I will watch her here. I don't know what to expect short or long term with this one. Pass for tonight, but watch closely.
BOAT HOUSE ROW--lucked into a perfect trip last time when the outer flow pulled and all stopped , allowing her to move up, stay in, get out and pace past bad ones. At the bottom. Now, back up, and her luck runs out. I expect to see her in for 8 by Valentine's day, if not sooner.
WILDCAT BEAUTY--any advantage she had from the good post is gone now. She didn't even do anything with that. Pass and toss. I would be hard pressed to play her at the absolute bottom from the best post she could have.
SHADYS M THREE--impossible to like from the 10 hole in this class. Not tonight for me.
Overall synopsis: Playing the trip angle, bad trips to good trips even out on a relatively sharp and properly classified horse on a drop in class. He has legit competition here. Its a horse race.
Probable Favorite: CAMAES FELLOW
MAKE SOME LUCK --my top choice. He has been hard luck lately, and he just needs to get out on the lead, let one go and pop back out with room. Camaes Fellow is just the type to provide that trip for him. His tactical gate speed is valuable. He does have issues relaxing when gunned, but Jody knows he needs that ground saving to win. He had no choice to pull last time and that did him in very late. Hopefully the trip works out this time.
Value Win Price 9-2
CAMAES FELLOW drops off a very good line, and when he is good, he is really good. He is preferred material still on his best day, which might be ancient history. In this spot, he is very live on paper. He also likes a soft track, and he very well could get that tonight. His price could be small, and I will play another I like better and have been watching for a while. Close call. There are a few options in here.
TRACK MASTER D returns from jail now that he is back in the spot he needs to be to have a shot. He didn't beat these last time, and his will to win is always in question. I like a couple of others better than him on form and grit, and I will stick with that. I might go to him next week if he is still at this level and the price is inflated. I never take a short price on this one because he doesn't justify it.
Anticipated Win Price 3-1
PRINCE CLYDE--I can't see him in this spot. Too many legit ones. He might be viable back at the bottom. He fits that, but was not entered for it. Curious.
GALAGHER SEELSTER--gets an acid test tonight. He was wildly overbet last time but certainly whoever did that knew he was good to go. Hard to know if he is just finding himself at this stage. He has never taken down the likes of what he faces here. I am not jumping on his bandwagon now. I like a few others better, but he is certainly one to consider if you think he has just improved over the hanging nw2 type he was all last year and much of this one.
CAMS TUX- continues to improve under Drury, but this is a tough spot to take them all down. He has a shot at the ticket if some of those fail. I can't see him winning.
WATCHING FOR A FUTURE PLAY
WAZZUP WAZZUP--has horrid form and looks terrible on the track. He is one who doesn't like a deep track, and I can't see him tonight. He has to be watched. He has always been very variable in terms of which one of his personalities shows up.
EXPLODENT--ships in off the claim, for the new kid in town trainer, after winning 5 straight at Philly. Post hurts here, and so does the class rise. I think he needs at least a notch lower, but she has one of those already. I will watch and make my assessment for another day. Class is an issue to be decided here.
THEPANINSULAHOTEL--on recent form and overall physical appearance, he has no shot with many of these.
Overall synopsis: Going against the faves here and hoping my assessment is accurate. Not fond of Rise Up Now from what I've seen and Nirvana seems in deep as he moves up lately.
Probable Favorite: RISE UP NOW
DRACHAN HANOVER --I will play the longshot here with the big closing ability and count on CC to get on Fillion's back and let him carry him to the tote board where he can brush if he is in position and doesn't have to work hard to get there.
Value Win Price 7-1
PUSH BACK can leave a ton and is willing to follow a hot leader like Nirvana willingly. He doesn't often have enough to outpace them all in a class like this, but he can be close enough to be considered. He is as sharp now as he has ever been. That counts with these types as they have trouble dominating week to week, as we saw last time when Ellis Park bombed and Thunder Steeler bombed away.
NIRVANA SEELSTER was very tough on the front last time, as he can be if he gets control. He moves back up here and I like others better. They wont be so easy to beat back. He has turned into the classic rise and dive condition mover. This is the rise. Not the dive.
RISE UP NOW I am not of the opinion that trip did him in last time. He had every chance in the stretch and hung when he should have been going forward. I saw the same thing the time before. He can prove me wrong with this pretty tough bunch, top to bottom. He is the likely chalk, a bad chalk in my view, just as he was last week.
Anticipated Win Price 9-5
BILBO HANOVER--meets a tough bunch and has declined in sharpness a bit the last couple of starts. Not something he can do against the likes of these. Pass for me.
BOOMBOOM BALLYKEEL--doesn't like to win, and he meets many in here who do with as much or more class than him. Pass for me on the win front. He is the B team from this stable in this race anyway.
Overall synopsis: Motley crew of non performers. I wasn't terribly impressed with Star Cover on Monday and thought he was lucky that Czar Seelster blew up. He has some previous class, but he has to do more.
Probable Favorite: UFDRAGONS ROCKET
UFDRAGONS ROCKET --Hung tough on a decent group last time, parking against the bias. If he can get on the engine or 2 hole, he can outstagger these simply by getting the jump on them. That is a very unimpressive endorsement as the top call.
Value Win Price 3-1
STAR COVER I will call him for 2nd, but he can't be counted on at a short price for the win.
ROCKABELLA another Philly shipper and if I was going to go to any of them with a shot, this might be the one. He has seen a lot of air lately, and a softer and shorter journey is enough to beat all of these.
SMARTER YET--does a lot of racing these days, but mostly his wins come at the B tracks when everything goes his way. Even at the bottom at this track, he is in deep to hit the ticket.
A MARCOU STORY--takes the class dive and gets a better post, but his lack of consistency still troubles me. I am watching to see if he matures and cuts that shit out. I will watch tonight. He is possible in with these.
WARRAWEE PHOENIX--wired a soft bunch at Flamboro last time, but has always had trouble at this track. He is a bit player type who will get it done once this winter. I don't see tonight as that night. A juice trainer might do this one good.
KINMUNDYS STRYKER--has longshot potential with these types. He is competitive most nights, but the B tracks aren't WEG. He has to show a bit more. Minor shot.
I will pass on the outside 3. Post hurts all of them in a race where they all don't need many excuses to find ways to lose.