Monday, December 14, 2015

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 14, 2015


Race 1

Overall synopsis: Kind of wide open after the scratches. I liked the 10, but she is out.

Probable Favorite: P L INDYANACA

HALO EFFECT  was on a line in the turns a bit last time, but went okay enough. I thought she would be a suspect chalk next time if that happens to play out. Hard to figure who will take the most money with these. She is the ML, and I will play her to be in the mix but not get there in time. With the better post,  she is likely to try to leave out this time. She has company for that. She probably has to come out and make a second move. That might do her in when some good late closers come to her.

P L INDYANACA   stayed well out of it last time, but was flying on the end while the pace was really slowing. Nevertheless, that was a step forward and he arrives in this spot under Menary's care. That has to be viewed as a positive move, but he also meets one he did not pass last time. He has a shot, but I like two others better.

 Play Against:

NOBLE POWER gets a better post and a new trainer, which might get him bet in this spot. He just has no go from what I can see. I will take my chances against him. I'm not sure he would even be dangerous with straight maidens at this point. I am very skeptical that this is anything more than a last chance hail mary to see if he can avoid being shipped to Monticello where his lack of overall speed and talent wont hurt him.

Anticipated Win Price 9-2

COUNTRY PROPHET was a bit better last time and Zeron put him near the lead. He is likely to get some medium play here, and I still don't see enough to suggest he is going to be reliable. I like others who can trot clean and have shown the same type of speed he has when he is sound and behaving.

Anticipated Win Price 5-1

The rest:


CITIZEN HALL--gets first time lasix, and he looks like he needs it based on how he finishes. Lets see if it helps him. Even if it does, others look better as viable plays here. If he races okay, I'd think about him for next time. If it solves the problem, he has a longshot chance to blow up the tote board.

DADS HAT--has never won at the big track, but his last at Flamboro was fairly good. He is the type that could step up here. His leaving ability is a plus and that gives him a longshot chance to get ahead of the pack if there is some commotion behind him.


MACHO MASS--is impossible to like off his recent efforts, the last of which was a blow up real good start. He will come around, as many of Henriksons do eventually. I expect Randy to finesse, bury and save him for a positive finish,  which likely means 4th or 5th if he can keep his act together.


ELEGANT HOLIDAY--there are just too many in here with a legit shot to suggest this one from the 8 hole can win this race based on what I've seen.

Race 2

Overall synopsis: As maidens go, this is even tougher that usual. First time Nixon on a horse that has a monster stale date only makes it harder.

Probable Favorite: HES GONE BAD

SILVERADO --drops back in with maidens and his overall speed is more in line with these. Allard will gas him out and that can work out well if he can get the 2 hole and pop back out. Top call, but he is still not very reliable. Most of these fall into that category anyway, so might as well take a bit of a price on one who shows more speed to date.

Value Win Price 5-1 

MAYFIELD DUKE  on form, he looks better than most of these. Saftic strangely takes the rail horse,  but I will go with him to be in the mix, as Henry can motivate this one, and he can leave if asked. He doesn't always finish hard, and Henry is better as a rule to get that out of them than Saftic. I'd use him in the double and the picks. He has a shot.

SEDONA SEELSTER    never was asked or fired last time, but I still maintain he has some go and will go forward with time. I thought of playing him again on top for a big price, but I will list him 3rd. One of many who could pay big in here. Its a toss up type of race.

 Play Against:

SHOOTIN TO KILL goes first time lasix, as he was scratched from the anticipated start with it in October and then qualified with it back 5 weeks ago.He is first time Nixon but he has sucker money written all over him. I can't touch one like this, and I will play something else.

Anticipated Win Price 3-1

HES GONE BAD does just enough to remain a maiden and keep picking up nice pieces. Same here again from this post in my view. 

Anticipated Win Price 3-1

The rest:


KWICKY KWANZAA--doesn't show anything to suggest he has the kind of talent to win at this track. I will watch him once and see if he can knock 3 or 4 seconds off for the track change. That doesn't win anyway tonight, but it at least justifies looking him over closer. Tonight, I wont bother.

CATCH TWENTY TWO--will have to be seen,  first time Tackoor, off those horrid lines and the 9 hole.

STONEBRIDGE MARVEL--tried grassroots horses twice, and ended up on the list. Now he has a new trainer and a couple of qualifiers. Not tonight, but I will watch to see if he has matured. Not very often you see McNair put one in a spot like that if they don't have the talent to at least compete. Something went wrong. He is a prospect for January if he is fixed up.

Race 3

Overall synopsis: Tough race to play. I don't like taking a short price on the obvious favorite, but he just keeps on coming every time and wins,wins, wins. I will pass the race on the win front, but if he takes bridgejumper money on the place front,  I will play against him on that with 2 or 3 I like that show enough to be there if he has the off night or the Trevor beating doesn't work here. In the pick 5, I'd take them all but Fearless Man, who I can't see winning as is.

Probable Favorite: IL SOGNO DREAM

 Play Against:

FEARLESS MAN until he is off the line, I doubt he can accelerate enough to outleave or pass any of these.  I'd have gone against him even two steps lower. He has not looked good since he returned, nor did he when he was laid off. Zeron can figure him out at some point. I haven't seen it happen yet this time around.

Anticipated Win Price 5-2

Race  4

Overall synopsis: If my choice shows up, he is the winner. He appears to have more talent and current upside than the rest,  and should now be fit and tuned up.

Probable Favorite: TYLERS BEACH BOY

TYLERS BEACH BOY --gets my top call. He left so so in is first for Nixon off a stale date, had very bad cover most of the way, lost some lengths on the turn because of it, and then exploded forward late. He was on a line a touch early, so that needs to be corrected. 2nd time Nixon is a good angle on the right horse. He can have him ready this time

Value Win Price 5-2

PRINCESSS DIAMOND  was bet down to 3-5 last time and raced like he was the best. Trevor gunned him down the backside and he only just got picked off. Its him and my top choice in here as I see it. I like the other one better. Rideout leaves him with Jones, and they know each other well from the Barrie days. He has a shot.

MACHERATI    was very impressive last time, and now moves up to meet winners. Fillion stays on, and when he pulled pocket, he rocketed forward. He isn't unreasonable in this spot, but I rarely play maidens who move up, especially if they aren't aimed at something bigger in the near future. I'd have to use him in the picks, but he is probably a shade short of my top choice if he shows up.  I have no reason to think he wont.

The rest:

HP BLACK SHADOW--drops out of the stakes series where he was over his head and back in where he is one of many. He appears to be ready for the conditioned claimer. Tonight will likely decide if its a 10 or a 20. The jury is out on which for me. I'd be leaning towards the 10. He has to do more now that he is in with ones he can go with. Bit player tonight.


THOUGHTYOUDLIKEIT--is extremely green and has no idea what he is doing out there, other than he is willing and he can go fast in stretches. I expect this to be a bravening, confidence building trip, and only if they battle and the race falls apart could he win this. That is unlikely, but not out of the question. He was way overbet last time but that indicates he is well regarded.


JET PASSING--I continue to watch him for a play against. He is zero shot tonight for the win. I wouldn't even play him from the 6 hole.


LISSILAS-from what I've seen of this one, he should be in the field. He looks like a tired and raced out 2yo.

STATURE SEELSTER--is an ignorant thing, who can make very dirty breaks. He has recently made a trainer change, and that has not worked out. I can't see him with a few in here who are going in the opposite direction to him....forward.

TWIN B COMMANDER--is way over his head in this spot and blew his shot at the ticket last time even though he had every chance.  He needs to find a claimer or a different track.

Race 5

Overall synopsis: Usual mixed bag you see in this class. No big class droppers with good form looking for an easy kill. I went for one who was good back in the spring, over others who have had their chances and failed repeatedly.

Probable Favorite: IDEAL JET

CLOSING CREDITS --I will call on the upset. He has won at this track in very fast time, and the Open at Batavia is no piece of cake. He knows how to win, and many of these are looking to lose. That could be a recipe to bake the right cake here.

Value Win Price 20-1 

MONTE CRISTO  gets a better post and J. Mac returns. He is hard to like on the win front almost always, but this type of spot gives him a shot. J Mac is very good at sitting and finding some room when it matters, as he did with Amble Over Hanover on Saturday night. That one was about as logical as this one would be. He has a shot if everything breaks his way. If he somehow could get on Ideal Jet's back and let him carry him to the tote board, it could happen.

IDEAL JET    tried to leave a bit last time but had to duck into mid pack. He then made a big move to the top, but as usual with him, if he moves too early,  he will stop late, which he did. I can't back him hoping Zeron will get the exact type of trip he needs to just last or get there just in time. He is likely taking more action this time and leaving more with this post, and will probably backstretch blast if he isn't on top already. I will play that he gets picked up.

 Play Against:

DIALAMARA made a very dangerous and ugly break last time,and looked to be traveling badly the time before that. I can't go near him until he is sorted out. That coud be tonight, but I would think Jackie Mo is careful to get him going in the right direction and hope he can start pacing entire miles before he races him to win. He is dropping and has a lot of talent. I will take my shot tonight isn't the night. 

Anticipated Win Price 4-1

The rest:

HAIL THE TAXI--loses Jody here and every racing style has been tried to no avail. I will pass again. One of these times, something will work. Enough decent ones in here to think its not tonight.

MILLIONDOLLARCELL--was scratched lame before the program began last time, and hit a wall on the front end the time before that. More than a month ago. No idea what shows up here, but he is hard to like on paper from the 8 hole.

INTENDED STYLE- 10 hole is hard to take on this type. I wont. He wouldn't shock me though. Wide open race.


SURPRISE HANOVER--picks up Fillion, so he avoids the no shot tag only on that variable and that at one time he was a nice enough horse. His trainer is 0 for 43 and at least one from her care popped right away in new hands. No thanks for me. Anything is possible with this group but he is a huge stretch and leap of faith.

WINDSONG LIGHTNING--looked to have a lot of promise in the spring but then derailed for some reason, and has not come back to any kind of form. Off the layoff, he hooked two very live ones,  and now he hits bottom with the 9 hole. I can't play him, but any chance he goes back to what he appeared to be, and he wins this for fun. He didn't look like that horse last time, even when viewed within the pack that wasn't dangerous to the winner.


SUNNY BEACH DAY--not the soundest horse, so any layoff either means he might be sounder, or could show up and be watched closely by the track vet to see if he can pass. His trainer's record speaks for itself. I will watch. When he is good, he can take these. 

Race 6

Overall synopsis: I will pass on this bunch. I don't have a good handle on these bottom end trotting claimers, and I have to get up to speed to make a viable play. Maybe next week.

Probable Favorite: GIRL DRAMA

Race 7

Overall synopsis: I will stick with one I have been watching and go against one who got it done for me last time.

Probable Favorite: DIGGIN IN

GOOD FRIDAY THREE --I will go to this time, as he just gradually is coming around. He was in a tough spot to get there last time, but did pace his back half in 54.4, and his own mile under 53. He is just barely coming around. I will stick with him one more time.

Value Win Price 15-1 

MONTEZUMA BLUECHIP  went to London last time for the easy score and delivered. He needs a soft trip back at this track, and while he figures, and has the magic combo of Fillion and Moreau, I like one better to take him. He is a close 2nd choice for me.

R U MACHIN ME    tripped out and beat the chalk down the lane last time. These are tougher as a group. He will have to find more now. I don't see it.

 Play Against:

DIGGIN IN I really liked him last week and he delivered off a very good trip. But, he has soreness issues that appear to be consistent and adding up. I think the more hard WEG miles he goes, the more it takes its toll. He will be hit hard in the betting this time, and I will go elsewhere.

Anticipated Win Price 5-2

The rest:

PIER HO TEMPTATION--ditches the claimers and goes back into the conditions. He hasn't shown me he is good enough to compete with these so I pass. He has high gate speed and we will see if that gets him anywhere

FRANKIE BOY-CC passed on him and I will as well. He has talent, but there are just too many options to think this is a good spot for him. He needs to show he can be in the pack before he can be considered for the win.


IM DRINKIN DOUBLES--will have to be rated after we see how he fits with the locals. 55 over Northside is a huge mile and he paced in 51 over Charlottetown to make the final of the Cup And Saucer. He draws poorly here and probably needs one. I will watch this time. He has a lot of upside.

DOJEA SOLO--2nd time Cirasoula and he went forward last time. Post 8 and I can't go to him here. I will watch to see if he is viable from a better post next time.


SINGLE WHITE SOCK--post 9 with these. No shot for him.

Race 8

Overall synopsis: I will pass on this bunch. Just to say I don't like Big Rich and would go against him with many who could win. Grana Padanno is a possible turnaround candidate tonight, but he will have to be seen. Could be any of the rest. I'd take them all.

Probable Favorite: BIG RICH

Race 9

Overall synopsis: Didn't like what I saw from JcS Jake again last time, and Moreau keeps tagging him. I will play against him and hope tonight is the night he completely blows up or needs to be handled so carefully he doesn't get there.

Probable Favorite: J CS JAKE

KINETIC KING --stays at the same level, and is certainly capable enough if he behaves. Very lukewarm to go to him, but I will. He wins his share in classes like this at times of the year like this. Tonight could be just such a night.

Value Win Price 3-1 

OUR MOJO  tried to take them down the road last time but gave way late. He is likely to try and do that again, and he could go farther. These are perhaps a shade easier than those, top to bottom. Post is obviously an issue here. For a big price again, he is worth a shot. In my view, he would need both my top choice and play against to completely blow up to beat both of them and there are others who could also pick him up if he tries to park them all like last time.

CRACKER ZACK    bombed away at the bottom, but had no interest last time at this level. He is capable enough, but will have to do more. He is an opportunist. That could be there this time. I will call him minor share until I see more speed.

 Play Against:

J CS JAKE drove better last time, but he didn't seem as live. He is in the mix for sure,  and I doubt he gets the monster chalk money he has seen lately,  but he is still the clear betting favorite and I don't like him for that. He could beat me.  I will take that chance and leave him off the pick 4.

Anticipated Win Price 7-5

The rest:

LEXUS ROCKY--drops back to where he is more dangerous and gets a post that suits him getting away close to the top, which is where he likes to be. I didn't like what I saw physically from him in his last 2, and I will go to others. His type doesn't hold form long.

MY KID SISTER--was awful last time from the get go and took herself out of it. She is about as variable as they come. Post parade is very important. If she is right,  she could be the winner at a price. I will watch her, but as of this call, I will lay off her and watch for a sign that whatever is bugging her is being looked after. Her gaps in races and long layoffs in general are a red flag for me.

JUSTALITTLEFASTER- beat a very suspect bunch at the bottom last time for one of his infrequent wins. He did park a long way to get it, but that wont work with these. Minor cheque if he trots like that again.

BROADWAY PRINCE- post 10 at this level just seems too much for this one based on his starting style. He could rush up for the ticket if a lot of things go right. I can't see him winning.


ZUKAV--moves up with the winner and loses Phil to the 10 horse. He is overall a better racehorse to drive now, which is a big issue for him. I could see him being on the super, but can't back him for the win. If he has stayed at the same level, I'd have played him.


MAGICAL POCKETS--takes a substantial class rise and meets many in here who are far superior on form than the ones he beat last time. Pass.

Race 10

Overall synopsis: If they battle,  my play has a shot to pass them all. It all depends here on who does what. With Allard out in the 9 hole and gunning, it could be rodeo time to the half. Trevor is likely to be riding shotgun to him also. I stick with the one who has done it before here,  and the driver with some brains to figure it all a price.

Probable Favorite: ALWAYS THERE

SKY DESPERADO --gets the upset call from me. He was first up last time, first off the claim,  and that winner is sharp right now. He has always been the type that can throw in a bad one, or get a lousy trip, and come right back and race better the next time with a better trip.  His driver is heady enough to position him for that. If it all works out, he can be a decent value play. He needs the trip,  for sure.

Value Win Price 12-1 

SPARTACUS JIM  take the high tag and gets post 10. He has wicked gate speed, and those Philly 10's aren't always soft like the WEG 8's can be. It all depends how hard he has to work for the front, and if he has company inside of him on the way there. One of many who are dependent on the trip here to finish off for the photo.

FIRST IMPRESSION   show back up on this circuit for team  Allard and trainer, fresh off some fast Pocono miles. He takes the high tag so he gets an outside post. I could see him getting hung a long way if somebody wants to make him work for the lead. He does hang at times leaving and if he doesn't clear when they turn down the backside, he is in for a long night. If he happened to get to the 2 hole, he has a shot. I like two others better than him.

 Play Against:

ALWAYS THERE goes in for 8 here, below where he was claimed and gets a better post. Obviously, he hasn't panned out like Moreau thought he would,  and I thought he would,  and he has a barn full of pretty nice horses. No reason to keep this one around if he can't win or be 2nd every time. I did not like what I saw from him last time, and I think he is sucker money for the win, and is possible to miss the ticket entirely. 

Anticipated Win Price 7-5

The rest:

PASSIONATE PETE--moves up from a 5 at Flamboro, where he is not winning, and has a non driving trainer /driver. I can't see him being dangerous as is.

CHEYENNE FORD--shipped in to Rideau last time from the Maratimes,  where he was racing okay, and drew the claim for 6500.  He has been here before and won the odd time. I will watch him here,  but he wouldn't shock me. I almost listed him 3rd, but I went elsewhere.

BUCKSHOT AUSTIN- is a slow starter, and at times doesn't even make the gate. But even so, he can make up big ground. If there is enough battling here,  which could easily happen,  he will be coming for them. The big track helps him step up a bit. Minor shot,  but I have little confidence in him as a rule. I went to the ones racing a bit higher lately.


GUNPOWDER--another shipper who has suspect lines, but the trainer change to Riley gets my attention. I give him a very longshot long shot chance if that has any effect. He has never been good enough at this track, even on the nights he isn't very lame, which isn't often.


BETTER ART--is a strange entry. He requalified for some reason, and now he tackles WEG horses when he had a lot of trouble with Rideau ones that wouldn't do at this track. That is a long ship for a hopeful shot at 5th money. He will have to be seen. He is a recent Lasix user, but it didn't help him last time.


ROYAL CANVAS--continues to go off at 100-1 or so every time,  and races like he can't keep up. Still not sure why he keeps bringing him here. Pass for me. 

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