Monday, May 12, 2025

May 12

2 -- Trot, purse $28,000 ​   PREFERRED 2.

3 Top Mast
7 Locatelli
4 Osceola
2 Perfetto

​Have to see them, but I am inclined to play against Quebec Hanover and use Osceola only as a cover. Both look very chancy for short odds. Both of the two iffy ones parading good, so I took a pass on this race. 

1 Dealin With Dewey​ has taken to avoiding the better ones at this track by going to various B's and using his class to trounce them. That worked at Buffalo, London and Flamboro, but at this track he now has to face Preferred types due to the money he earned at the B's. I would think he is hunting a small prize.

 2 Perfetto   ​at one time would be the solid favorite in with these, but he isn't at the peak of his career anymore. He couldn't hold off Nasey last time for 2nd money and that is an indication that he would have a hard time beating whatever contenders dont self-destruct. He can however get 3rd or 4th money on back class and stability. 

3 Top Mast​  couldn't touch the top 3 last time but trotted his own mile in 52.2 for a solid 4th. He can beat these if he stays the same and the two chalks make mistakes or aren't as good as they sometimes are. He looks like the value play in here with J Mac.

4 Osceola  wired in 52.1 two back, and that is sandwiched by two tries where he made breaks and took himself out of it. McNair loses Logan Park so he is back aboard and he seems to do well with him. Still, he is risky. He has to be seen parading, although last time he looked good but then ran while moving into contention on the last turn. Steel to alum up front shoeing change. Maybe that will help him avoid making a break.

5 Quebec Hanover​  will generally show you how sound he is in the post parade and going to the gate. When he is right, he handles these. When he is not he can trot without running. Have to see him. Good race to against a favorite if he looks like he will make the gate but go off stride.

6 Phoeni​x has taken 3 in a row and is very sharp right now, but this is an entirely different level he has never shown he can handle. He seems at least a full second short of the better ones in here.

7 Locatelli avoids the top shelf types like Logan Park and Gaines Hanover and other than Osceola, who is prone to make breaks, the rest are in his wheelhouse. He has a shot in with these.

​Recap

Perfetto looked like a million bucks parading and scoring out. Osceola went off 2-5, kept it together and was tons the best. Quebec Hanover looked okay to the gate but when it pulled away he was on a full run. Top Mast followed the winner the entire way and did what he could, but he is no match for that one at this point unless that one makes a mistake. The rest of them finished in a pack for 3rd to 6th other than Quebec Hanover who was not on the screen. Shoeing change seemed to be enough to keep the winner trotting.

4 -- Trot, purse $24,000   NW $15,000 LAST 5 STARTS.  AE: OPT. CLM. $70,000. 

8 Myretirementdream
7 Myfriendjose
9 Mars Hill
2 Nasey 

​Tough race where trip will likely decide it. If I was playing a pick 4 or 5 I would be 6 or 7 deep. Couldn't make up my mind so I took a pass. Hopefully the 8 doesn't win and make me regret that.

1 Pennteller Hanover​  didn't have the answer last time after being impressive taking two straight one level below. He gets the rail here and will need more. I still don't see evidence he is ready for that yet. Maybe one day. He is bred to be good. So far, he is only so so good.

2 Nasey  seems to have one style, and that is earning him a good living at this track. If he keeps up this track he is likely to earn 120k this year. He leaves, he sits, he waits and then he brushes late. That got him 2nd money last time when he found room between horses. He is possible but he will need room again. 

3 Sparks Fly​  dropped and popped last time but now he is right back up where he seems to have trouble. He is likely to be close up again, but he would need a lot of others to have issues to win this race. Not tonight for me.

4 Spartan General​  sits so far back he needs a lot of flow and trip luck. He was flying late last time but starting as far back as he does means that doesn't always work as he just got up for 4th. He is capable and he could produce, but his style is troublesome.

5 My Buddy Sam   ​didn't have any answers last time and seems like maybe he has hit the peak and is back down where he used to be. I cant see him contending in this spot off what I saw last week.           

6 Eden Onthehill​ was noticeably good last time and got 3rd money, but these are far tougher and it seems a big task for him to go much farther forward, which he would need to do. I like others better in a deep race.

7 Myfriendjose​ is sharp right now taking 2 in a row, the last in better time than some of these are currently racing. These are tougher, but he is getting better. One of many off the right trip who could get it done.

 8 Myretirementdream​  seemed over his head in the Graduate and he draws the 8 hole here again, although these are more his type. He has some longshot potential if he can pick up live cover to carry him to early stretch and the leaders come back to them. That is a lot to ask, but not mission impossible.

 9 Mars Hill   ​was flat last week although he did close in 26.3. He now draws the 9 hole in a somewhat soft field for this class. He has an outside shot if he can get in a good cover flow, but he looks like one who might need a class drop and a better post would help as well. 

10 Willowtime  tried the best in his last 3 starts but was not competitive. He was a very good 2yo, not as good last year but still decent, but he is slumping now. He draws the 10 hole on the class drop but his form is way off and even if he had a mid pack gate post I still wouldn't like him in his spot. He has to show some form reversal I don't currently see.​ He loses Roy to the rail horse.

​Recap

All paraded okay. Myfriendjose wanted the lead, but when challenged he quit right away. Mybuddysam turned for home on the lead but they went 52.1 and that is too much for him. Pennteller Hanover had every chance at 2nd money but hung a bit late, although he is adapting and going faster. Nasey was a solid 2nd again, but no match for Spartan General who sailed by them easily and was a clear easy winner at the tote board as the lukewarm 5-2 favorite.


6 -- Trot, purse $15,000    POP UP SERIES: NW $20,000 (F&M $25,000) 

5 Allsummerlong As
2 Peso Hanover
1 Crystal Baller
3 Market Banker

Took another pass on this one. Didn't really like or hate anything here and the value didn't seem to be there. For sure 8-5 on Market Banker is bad value.

1 Crystal Baller came late last time but too late. He is in the mix but he needs a lot of things to go right.

2 Peso Hanover made a solid winning move on the turn but the winner blew right by him. He looks good every week but seemingly doesnt get the job done. Maybe tonight things go his way. For a price he is usable.

3 Market Banker moved up last time off a win and was raced easy, coming late for 3rd money. He fits with these if he keeps the ball rolling but needs to work for it if the goal is to to win. 

 4 Eternally Hanover seems to alternate good starts like last time with breaks in stride. I missed that last time but I note it now. His price will dive sharply so he is bad value if he gets bet this time, considering how variable he can be.

5 Allsummerlong As strangely went off the favorite last time but did little and was never involved. The track was bad at that point and I could give her the benefit of the doubt for that. If the price elevates, which it likely will she could redeem. 

6 Valuable Miss draws better here but she appears to be a mare that was good at 2, pretty good at 3 but now has hit a wall. She has missed the ticket in all 12 tries this year only banking 4k. That indicates that she is a bit over her head with the contenders here. 

7 The Canam Banker started slowly last time in a class that doesnt stack up to some of these and had limited powers of recovery. His slow starts di​g him a hole he cant seem to overcome.

8 Gigondas   tried to wire them from the rail last time but completely caved in when headed. It doesn​'t get easier here. I cant see him.

9 Scintillating Tom  came up empty last time off a good following trip in a class he should do more. Now he will start from the 9 hole and he was no factor from the 10 hole last time on the page he had it. I like others this time.

10 Shadrack Hanover  did not impress last time in this series and was flat at best. He draws the 10 hole and I cant use him under all those variables.

Recap.

All paraded okay. Eternally Hanover, as predicted blew up as the gate pulled away. The speed all came from the outside, with hot fractions and the outer flow gradually passed them all in a slowing final quarter. Peso Hanover had every chance again but did not do enough near the line. Crystal Baller was a solid 2nd. Market Banker sat way back, picked up 3rd over cover, then just sailed by them all with minimal urging in a slowing last quarter. Valuable Miss finished well for 3rd to show some life. 

7 -- Trot, purse $21,000 ​  5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 3 (FM 5) RACES OR $50,000

6 Grambling Hall
3 Fadeaway Hanover
7 Hp Run Detector
1 P L Rainbow Dash 

Tough to go against the two favorites here as they both paraded good so I wont. 

1 P L Rainbow Dash   
comes off a winter break and last year she made 200k, almost 300k lifetime. She was qualified twice and the second was a sharp 55 flat with Highland Kismet winning that. She needs to be seen but she could take these down at first asking.

2 Debra  
​is 3 for 3 after sweeping the Ontario Spring series and now has been off 17 days and meets males on her return to overnights. She will have to go much faster here and these are deeper and tougher. No need to push her here as she gears up for the Sire Stakes.

3 Fadeaway Hanover  
has two wins and three 2nds in his last 6 and obviously is a player with these from a good post. Scott Young is on the 8 horse, so McNair picks up the drive. He is the likely slight favorite.                   

4 Gaslight Hall
​ got it done last time but now will need to go faster. J Mac is back aboard although Davis got the job done last time.

5 Flirty Dancer
​ broke and was well back the entire way last time, and that is 3 bad efforts in a row. She comes right back on 7 days but I cant see how she improves enough to beat these.

6 Grambling Hall​ left well last time, stayed in, then came up the rail for 3rd money to a very sharp winner and an improving 2nd place finisher. He is coming along and has a big shot here. 

7 Hp Run Detector​ moves up here off a win in his 2nd start back off a 6 month layoff. These are tougher but his good early speed is a plus and its not the most dangerous bunch. Shot.

8 Veracruz​ moves up here off a flat effort and now draws the 8 hole. No thanks.

Recap.

All paraded okay. Fadeaway Hanover in particular looked great and he looks to have a bright future. Hp Run Director blasted off for the lead and was let go by Grambling Hall on the give and go, although the 7 didn't want to give up the lead the driver made him. From there Grambling Hall opened up a big lead and held well late. Fadeaway Hanover took way off, followed good cover of Gaslight Hall then tipped off him when he stalled, and was a good 2nd by about half a length. P L Rainbow Dash came flying out of the pack for an eye catching 3rd, but had too far to come and not enough time to get there. Flirty Dancer behaved and was better, a decent 4th. Hp Run Detector was good to mid lane then gave it up. Veracruz was 3rd over but well back at the end. He needs class relief.

8 -- Trot, purse $15,000 ​   NW $6,000 LAST 5 STARTS. 

3 Truffles Too
8 Mister Magic​ 
7 Century Jaguar
6 Eyes Of Justice

Avoided this race as Truffles Too looked to have too much of an edge and went off 2-5 and just missed. Not really much to play here.

1 My Holy Moley   trotted in 55.2 last time in a return from a short layoff, which is faster than his lifetime mark, but that didn't get him any money, and now back in the same class he meets tougher ones. I will wait for now but he could be viable in the right spot going forward.

2 Like Chaos   
  ​looked home free last time in the stretch and then just stopped. I see no changes so I guess they just hope he is good, then bad, then can be good again. He is hard to back when he continues to stop in the lane.

3 Truffles Too
​ dropped a line last time and now gets the power class drop and its go time. He also picks up J Mac here and I would think he blasts and tries to take them all the way at a short price of 4-5 or less.

4 No Angel Like Me  
 ​seems a couple seconds short of the better ones here and has also missed a month. I like others in this spot.

5 Bella Cavalla
​ was flat last time and has been for a few weeks now. I cant back her again until I see something more positive.

6 Eyes Of Justice​ left well last time, let the leader go, and then came back at him late. Now he has to move up and face many better ones. I don't see this race going his way but he has a shot at a minor cheque. He took a new overall mark with that win.

7 Century Jaguar    ​makes the trainer change for the same connections as he simply does not perform. He is noted as one who sweats terribly in the post parade, even coming out that way. He is a big rangy type with speed. If he could learn to relax he probably is as good as most of these. Big if. 

8 Mister Magic
​ brushed to the lead last time by the one who eventually came back on inside him and beat him to the wire. He now takes a higher tag and moves up and draws outside. Still, he is as good as many of these if things go his way and he stays on stride. Possible price play.

9 Cadillac Moon​  left well from the rail last time and parlayed that into a solid pocket trip and 2nd place finish at this level. Right back but this time the far outside draw. When he tried leaving like that at this level from post 7 he got the lead then backed away. He likes the pocket ride but I don't think he can get it here.

Recap.

All paraded okay. Century Jaguar was quiet this time, and not washing out. They put a Pelling Pacifier on him for the new trainer. In the race he went back to last then came on late but was too far out of it. He has some appeal going forward. The two outside horses blasted off, then when they settled Truffles Too took over, looked clear but began to hang and let a drifting badly Bella Cavalla nab him right on the line. Mister Magic left then took his shot late but didn't have enough to pass the leader. He looks better down a level. Eyes of Justice stayed on for 4th but cant really go with the contenders here.

10 -- Trot, purse $18,000 ​  NW $9,500 LAST 5 STARTS. 

2 Djimon
5 Masstercraft
7 Southwind Domino 
6 Willys Home Run 

Mixed bunch with two stakes refugees and one who didn't perform last time but has strong ability when he does. Trip may decide it.

1 Yank My Halo​ caught an unusually tough bunch for this class and in this case is more likely to sit and look for a slice. I like others but he has upside in the weeks to come if he draws the right field.

2 Djimon​  never really fired last time at 1-2 on the class drop and comes right back here.  He is the type that can be good one week and not so good the next week. Maybe he comes through this time at a better price.

3 Made Of Magic
​ ships in from London off the short layoff, but doesn't look viable at this level against some tough customers here. Lets see how he does to assess where he stacks up going forward.

4 Macallan
​ draws much better here but he is still facing 53 trotters when he is more of a 55 trotter and possibly 54 when he is really good. I like others for now, but his leaving ability gives him an outside chance with these. He does drop but he meets some stakes refugees this time.

5 Masstercraft​  is another Graduate casualty of Paquet and others and dives into an overnight like Willys Home Run. Trevor picks up the drive and he has done well with him before. He has a shot coming from the middle of the gate in a light field.

6 Willys Home Run tried the Graduate to start her season, and made a strong bid in Leg 1, getting the lead only to fade late. In the next leg and final she met Paquet and like many is no match for him. She seems right at her limit in 53 and change and that might be enough here as she drops into an overnight.

7 Southwind Domino ​ can be a bad actor but JJ seems to be able to get him to perform as he did last time. He generally doesn't leave great from the outside but since he has shown bullying tendencies I suspect JJ wont fight with him and let him blow out of there and see what that gets him. He has a shot if that works and he can work out another pocket trip.

8 Victor Invictus  was vet scratched sick two weeks ago and returns to the same class with the 8 hole. This is a tough bunch for him and he is better a class lower. Pass for tonight. 

Recap.

All paraded okay. Macallan looked exceptional in the parade and left hard, but in the end isn't good enough to contend with the better ones here. He might be good in the coming weeks. Djimon reversed his form immediately as he is prone to do as he moved to the lead and out sped and out classed them in the lane. Masstercraft was a solid 2nd but no match for the winner. Southwind Domino took back this time and was only good enough to brush for 4th. Willys Home Run was a shade hot in the parade, then made a hard push at Djimon on the last turn but ducked back into the pocket, then backed through the entire field. She isn't right currently.

12 -- Trot, purse $11,000 ​  NW $3,250 LAST 5 STARTS 

3 Radio Lab
1 Deliciousstone Dk
2 Mystic
7 Buck Dancer

If Radio Lab shows up and behaves he should crush this bunch.

1 Deliciousstone Dk​ made a late break last time to spoil his chance but otherwise has kept trotting. He retains his 20k claiming tag and that allows him to keep playing with many of these non performers, which he crushed a month ago and beat on the line two starts before that. Is he still the same? We shall see. He is worth a play if the price floats up.

2 Mystic​  dropped last time but didn't pop, as he is very variable in terms of the nights he shows up. If any of these is to step up and take Radio Lab its likely this one. JJ gets the steer as obviously Borth would go with Radio Lab. This is the type that JJ can motivate to try.

3 Radio Lab​ takes the class drop when he trotted in 54.4 last time which would easily take this mediocre to non performing bunch. If he passes the post parade test he looks very tough to take down by this group.

4 Quick Fix     ​returns from almost a 5 month layoff and will do so without lasix and a new trainer. He is another that has to be seen. 

5 Okeanos​  has missed almost an entire year off a lame scratch and he has had many of those. He has to be seen.

6 Talk Show Host  has horrendous form and doesn't look competitive here or anywhere else currently for that matter.

7 Buck Dancer​ has blown a lot of short prices lately when it position to win. This isn't a tough bunch, but neither were the ones that beat him last time. I will shop elsewhere.

 8 Floyd The Freak   ​comes back to this track with better form than when he left to this bottom condition. He did draw poorly and that could be a factor here. He has not won a race in the last two seasons and only made 5k total. He seems in deep here.

Recap.

Radio Lab looked iffy parading. The rest were okay. Buck Dancer was stumbly as the gate sped away, possibly tossing his head then ran off and took himself out of it. Okeanos looked okay but then took off running as well. As did the rail horse who was out of it after that. Radio Lab cut the mile but looked weak as they turned for home. Mystic stalked him then angled and blew right by him. Quick Fix got up for 2nd, but only because Radio Lab had nothing left.




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