1 Trot, purse $17,000 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1
2 Green Mans Joy
4 Angelic
6 Kenogami Mat
1 Eternal Embrace
I am going with the logical and predictable favorite on top but I need to see them all parade.
1 Eternal Embrace is the wild card in this bunch. She is a first time starter who showed enough in that qualifier to suggest she might have lots more speed to offer, if they want to race her all out first out. That is a big if as the stable driver handles instead of the catch driver and she gets the dreaded rail. They did list J Mac and he took the obvious favorite, so maybe that isn't a factor here. I have to see her parade.
2 Green Mans Joy was 2nd last time to a strong and powerful well means winner and avoids any types like that here. She is the one to beat off current form and ability. She is 0 for 13 though so the jury is out if she wins when she is supposed to. A good post here and J Mac so there should be no excuses.
3 Banks A Million seems to be a one speed type and because of that she is 0 for 15 lifetime, with only one 2nd place finish. She follows along well, but she just hasn't been good enough to pass the faster contenders. She would need all of them to make mistakes here.
4 Angelic went faster last week, made the lead and opened up 3 lengths in the stretch but was mowed down on the line by one who looks to be pretty nice horse. She is one of a few who look plausible here, but her tendency to find a way to snatch defeat from the hands of victory is troubling when she generally brings a short price. I'd use her, but not confidently.
5 Long Legs draws better this time but even so shows a lot of gate breaks and needs to be handled carefully, so gets away back most times. Her overall speed doesn't play with the 3 to her inside, and as such I can't use her until she can leave a bit and go about 2 seconds faster.
6 Kenogami Mat has made two life starts with two late breaks, and was sent back to the qualifiers 4 days later. This time with first time trotting hopples where he was sent out of there in 28 seconds to a big lead, and held that until the lane where he trotted in 28.2 to hold 2nd. Obviously the goal was to get around clean and show he can go speed with the hopples. Mission accomplished. Now, can he go fast enough to beat horses trotting in 56 or 57? In his first life start he trotted in 57.2 even though he made that late gate break. He has upside but he has to be seen, mostly due to his breeding.
7 The Governor made a costly gate break last time and then just went around but didn't gain or lose from there. He is generally a slow starter and doesn't make any bold moves, but is capable of picking up slices by hanging around and passing failing ones late. Until I see more than that I can't back him with real contenders.
8 Frenchmoni Hanover drew the 10 hole last time and made some minor gains in overall time, but not enough that the connections didn't suspect she might need more help. She gets first time lasix here, and while she draws the 8 hole she can show some improvement leading to future starts. Either way, at some point she will have to start better to be a win candidate. I will watch this time but cant see where she is dangerous to the win contenders in this spot.
9 Delphi Hanover in his last 3 starts for a purse was running before the gate pulled away and distanced by the quarter. He does seem to have some ability, but currently he just needs to grow up and show he can race horses and keep up. I will watch for some evidence of that, of which I have not seen yet.
1 Hobnob Hanover is not one I can back at 0 for 31 and no apparent excuses for that.
4 P L Stevie trotted forward when asked in the 2nd qualifier after following along and going quicker in her first one. Now she races for a purse and will have to trot much faster if she is to win at first asking. I have to see her, but I doubt she does that. Her mother was a very good mare, so I'm sure there is something there to watch for as she likely tries Sire Stakes foes in a month or so.
5 St Pats Princess shows nothing to suggest she is a WEG horse or even a competitive Grand River type yet. Nuff said until she shows that.
7 Hadley seems well short of this field currently and I will have to see lots more to get in her camp. Pass for now until I see that ability.
8 Southwind Caspian couldn't hold off the well meant winner last time but easily beat the rest. He went fast enough to beat these and he leaves well, and has shown some class when asked for it. He has a big shot at a likely short price.
10 Resolved unfortunately draws the 10 hole here as she showed signs of coming around last time, lowering her overall time and coming a snappy 56.2 back half. Spotting the field 10 lengths, as she has done in her last 2 is not a recipe for success. She has potential going forward but this does not look like a good spot to break her maiden.
1 Ivy Lynn wasn't good enough in the SBOA and comes back to overnights here. She was a bearcat in the making when she started out last year, but tailed off badly. Maybe she finds her way against this kind. She has rebound potential for a price.
2 P L Sapphire got the right trip last time and pounced in the stretch in good time. It gets tougher and deeper here. I'm inclined to play against her if she brings a short price. She is a bit bossy, and if she gets jammed up in a hole she might self destruct.
4 Film At Eleven after two second place finishes at this level came first up last time with the trainer driving and backed away. She gets a different catch driver this time, one this barn does well with. Others look better but she has a shot if she reverts back to her good form.
5 Lily Lace was a solid 2nd in her return race to the currently untouchable Zette Athena, who she avoids here. She looks primed and ready to contend with these and if her ML is correct she is solid value.
6 D A Dream Girl trotted a sharp mile last time to close in 27.1 after sitting out of it in slow fractions. Now that she isn't facing maidens anymore she will have to start leaving when she draws good posts like this to be more of a contender. I suspect she can do that and is a player this time if she does.
7 Kankoon got her time down significantly last time, so that was a positive. Now she has to find another two seconds. I suppose with her breeding that is possible, but I like others here until she does more.
9 Oceanview Rumours comes back after a long winter rest. She won 7 of 9, taking a record of 55.2 in a leg of The Harvest and banking 44k. She has been prepped with 2 qualifiers, the second one much faster and clearly a tune up to have her ready to race right away. But she draws 9 hole here, so that makes it tougher. Nevertheless, with her resume she has a shot with these right off the shelf.
1 Baden Baden was very good at 2 making 96k but has not shown anything so far this year to suggest she competes against these. She has to improve to get me interested.
2 Ys Queen Beth stormed home in 27.1 last time to score the upset against maidens and now has to move up. She won in 56 flat then, and with any more speed she can take these too.
3 Th Monica didn't look good parading last time and raced poorly. She was good at 2 but has not come back sharp. For now, she is a pass for me unless I see a turnaround.
4 Lisbon a 375k yearling didn't race at 2 but won her first three starts at 3, all at a price, before racing poorly, then coming up sick. Now she comes back here almost 3 weeks from that sickness. She will have to be seen but I am inclined to pass on her here.
5 Ibelieveinangels was solid last year, getting 2nd money in the Grassroots final. She has come back good, but has not stepped forward yet. She would have to trot in 55 and change to likely take this race and I don't see that from her yet. Maybe she will race into shape, but that is for later.
6 Royal Moon has to move up without winning as she won at Flm. She looked really good last time but now she needs more speed. She has a shot, but she is facing a saltier group here. I prefer others in this spot.
7 Clarissa W showed speed last year but didn't win in fast time. She seems solid and consistent, but she might need one with these. She is a contender, but I wouldn't take the short price on her this time.
9 Beersnsunshine Deo finished well last time but draws the 9 hole here and slow starts have been an issue for her. I cant see her against this group from this post.
1 Eternal Embrace is the wild card in this bunch. She is a first time starter who showed enough in that qualifier to suggest she might have lots more speed to offer, if they want to race her all out first out. That is a big if as the stable driver handles instead of the catch driver and she gets the dreaded rail. They did list J Mac and he took the obvious favorite, so maybe that isn't a factor here. I have to see her parade.
2 Green Mans Joy was 2nd last time to a strong and powerful well means winner and avoids any types like that here. She is the one to beat off current form and ability. She is 0 for 13 though so the jury is out if she wins when she is supposed to. A good post here and J Mac so there should be no excuses.
3 Banks A Million seems to be a one speed type and because of that she is 0 for 15 lifetime, with only one 2nd place finish. She follows along well, but she just hasn't been good enough to pass the faster contenders. She would need all of them to make mistakes here.
4 Angelic went faster last week, made the lead and opened up 3 lengths in the stretch but was mowed down on the line by one who looks to be pretty nice horse. She is one of a few who look plausible here, but her tendency to find a way to snatch defeat from the hands of victory is troubling when she generally brings a short price. I'd use her, but not confidently.
5 Long Legs draws better this time but even so shows a lot of gate breaks and needs to be handled carefully, so gets away back most times. Her overall speed doesn't play with the 3 to her inside, and as such I can't use her until she can leave a bit and go about 2 seconds faster.
6 Kenogami Mat has made two life starts with two late breaks, and was sent back to the qualifiers 4 days later. This time with first time trotting hopples where he was sent out of there in 28 seconds to a big lead, and held that until the lane where he trotted in 28.2 to hold 2nd. Obviously the goal was to get around clean and show he can go speed with the hopples. Mission accomplished. Now, can he go fast enough to beat horses trotting in 56 or 57? In his first life start he trotted in 57.2 even though he made that late gate break. He has upside but he has to be seen, mostly due to his breeding.
7 The Governor made a costly gate break last time and then just went around but didn't gain or lose from there. He is generally a slow starter and doesn't make any bold moves, but is capable of picking up slices by hanging around and passing failing ones late. Until I see more than that I can't back him with real contenders.
8 Frenchmoni Hanover drew the 10 hole last time and made some minor gains in overall time, but not enough that the connections didn't suspect she might need more help. She gets first time lasix here, and while she draws the 8 hole she can show some improvement leading to future starts. Either way, at some point she will have to start better to be a win candidate. I will watch this time but cant see where she is dangerous to the win contenders in this spot.
9 Delphi Hanover in his last 3 starts for a purse was running before the gate pulled away and distanced by the quarter. He does seem to have some ability, but currently he just needs to grow up and show he can race horses and keep up. I will watch for some evidence of that, of which I have not seen yet.
10 Stormont Calculus draws the 10 hole and shows no signs of being able to go fast enough to take down any of the contenders here, even if he drew middle of the gate, which he did not. Pass.
Recap.
5 -- Trot, purse $17,000 5 YEAR OLDS & YOUNGER, NW 1
8 Southwind Caspian
10 Resolved
2 Buddies Dream
9 Happy Angel
Another race where I am going to the likely big favorite on top.
1 Hobnob Hanover is not one I can back at 0 for 31 and no apparent excuses for that.
2 Buddies Dream made a monumental leap forward from her first qualifier, where she was 22 lengths back in 2.01 flat to the 2nd qualifier where she sat 2nd and then came on late to hold 2nd in 57.1, back half in 57 flat for a trainer I have never heard of and who has no starts this year. She will have to be seen. Who knows what she actually is.
4 P L Stevie trotted forward when asked in the 2nd qualifier after following along and going quicker in her first one. Now she races for a purse and will have to trot much faster if she is to win at first asking. I have to see her, but I doubt she does that. Her mother was a very good mare, so I'm sure there is something there to watch for as she likely tries Sire Stakes foes in a month or so.
5 St Pats Princess shows nothing to suggest she is a WEG horse or even a competitive Grand River type yet. Nuff said until she shows that.
7 Hadley seems well short of this field currently and I will have to see lots more to get in her camp. Pass for now until I see that ability.
8 Southwind Caspian couldn't hold off the well meant winner last time but easily beat the rest. He went fast enough to beat these and he leaves well, and has shown some class when asked for it. He has a big shot at a likely short price.
9 Happy Angel was 2nd best last time to an easy daylight winner who led all the way. She started well enough to get that trip and then moved into 2nd as another contender blew up on the last turn. Post 9 here changes that variable, but she bears watching and these aren't the toughest and most reliable bunch.
10 Resolved unfortunately draws the 10 hole here as she showed signs of coming around last time, lowering her overall time and coming a snappy 56.2 back half. Spotting the field 10 lengths, as she has done in her last 2 is not a recipe for success. She has potential going forward but this does not look like a good spot to break her maiden.
Recap.
6 Trot, purse $18,000 FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES
3 Wells Fargo
1 Ivy Lynn
9 Oceanview Rumours
6 D A Dream Girl
This race seems wide open and there should be lots of action. I think it sets up for a price horse, all of which I have picked and it could be any one of those. Tough race. I couldn't pick one I liked and the favorites looked okay, so I passed.
1 Ivy Lynn wasn't good enough in the SBOA and comes back to overnights here. She was a bearcat in the making when she started out last year, but tailed off badly. Maybe she finds her way against this kind. She has rebound potential for a price.
2 P L Sapphire got the right trip last time and pounced in the stretch in good time. It gets tougher and deeper here. I'm inclined to play against her if she brings a short price. She is a bit bossy, and if she gets jammed up in a hole she might self destruct.
3 Wells Fargo raced better last time and got 4th money, but still, her slow starts put her in a hole she cant dig out of. She needs to get up closer early and on the move before the stretch. She gets a new driver this time, and maybe he takes a different approach.
4 Film At Eleven after two second place finishes at this level came first up last time with the trainer driving and backed away. She gets a different catch driver this time, one this barn does well with. Others look better but she has a shot if she reverts back to her good form.
5 Lily Lace was a solid 2nd in her return race to the currently untouchable Zette Athena, who she avoids here. She looks primed and ready to contend with these and if her ML is correct she is solid value.
6 D A Dream Girl trotted a sharp mile last time to close in 27.1 after sitting out of it in slow fractions. Now that she isn't facing maidens anymore she will have to start leaving when she draws good posts like this to be more of a contender. I suspect she can do that and is a player this time if she does.
7 Kankoon got her time down significantly last time, so that was a positive. Now she has to find another two seconds. I suppose with her breeding that is possible, but I like others here until she does more.
8 International Love showed some improvement last time adding trotting hopples, kept trotting and took her overall time down with a good last quarter. She has upset potential here if she can be towed into it and the leaders go too fast on the front end.
9 Oceanview Rumours comes back after a long winter rest. She won 7 of 9, taking a record of 55.2 in a leg of The Harvest and banking 44k. She has been prepped with 2 qualifiers, the second one much faster and clearly a tune up to have her ready to race right away. But she draws 9 hole here, so that makes it tougher. Nevertheless, with her resume she has a shot with these right off the shelf.
10 Trot, purse $18,000 FILLIES & MARES NW 2 RACES
2 Ys Queen Beth
7 Clarissa W
6 Royal Moon
9 Beersnsunshine Deo
Mixed bunch but the 2 seems to have an edge if she can what she did last time.
1 Baden Baden was very good at 2 making 96k but has not shown anything so far this year to suggest she competes against these. She has to improve to get me interested.
2 Ys Queen Beth stormed home in 27.1 last time to score the upset against maidens and now has to move up. She won in 56 flat then, and with any more speed she can take these too.
3 Th Monica didn't look good parading last time and raced poorly. She was good at 2 but has not come back sharp. For now, she is a pass for me unless I see a turnaround.
4 Lisbon a 375k yearling didn't race at 2 but won her first three starts at 3, all at a price, before racing poorly, then coming up sick. Now she comes back here almost 3 weeks from that sickness. She will have to be seen but I am inclined to pass on her here.
5 Ibelieveinangels was solid last year, getting 2nd money in the Grassroots final. She has come back good, but has not stepped forward yet. She would have to trot in 55 and change to likely take this race and I don't see that from her yet. Maybe she will race into shape, but that is for later.
6 Royal Moon has to move up without winning as she won at Flm. She looked really good last time but now she needs more speed. She has a shot, but she is facing a saltier group here. I prefer others in this spot.
7 Clarissa W showed speed last year but didn't win in fast time. She seems solid and consistent, but she might need one with these. She is a contender, but I wouldn't take the short price on her this time.
8 Kadiddle draws outside again and very bad starts from outside posts have limited what she can do at this level. She is one to watch as she might do if she can get back to the middle of the gate. Not tonight though.
9 Beersnsunshine Deo finished well last time but draws the 9 hole here and slow starts have been an issue for her. I cant see her against this group from this post.
Recap