Race 2
2 Kountry Clover
5 My Ghost
3 Love Wins
4 TH Trix R Forkids
A lot depends on who stays flat and who can get to the front before the half.
1 HP Sophia is still a maiden after 9 career starts. However, 7 of those starts have come in stakes races, and some of those were Golds. That seems to have taken its toll, as her last two have not been good, and she hung in to the top of the stretch last time before fading. Either way, she gets 2k for just showing up tonight, and more if she stays flat and others don't. I could see her just floating out, sitting 3rd or 4th at the half and just moving up the inside to at least mid stretch. She would need a lot of good luck to get the win though. In her favor is that unlike most young trotters, she starts well from the rail at this track.
2 Kountry Clover loses J Mac as he is away, but picks up Cullen. She was 2nd best at less than even money last time, but she was already locked into the final, so they had no reason to gut here there. She has been very steady and solid as two year old trotting fillies go. On paper, she looks very tough to beat here at a very short price.
3 Love Wins blasted off last week from the 8 hole, made the lead in 27.1, a speed she had not showed in her many starts in any quarter, then went 3 straight 30 second or more quarters to be a spent 5th by almost 10 lengths. She also tried to leave in 27.4 in early September, made that lead also, then went the same mile as last time to back up then too. I would think that tactic is now off the table. She has a fair shot at 2nd or 3rd if she leaves reasonably, sits in, and one of the two main contenders blows up. Her consistency and leaving ability are two pluses for her in a race where trotters break and others need to be held together leaving.
4 TH Trix R Forkids looked like a million bucks parading last week, then broke her maiden easily in her 4th life start in an impressive 55.4, which is a second faster than anyone has trotted in this field. Nevertheless, she now has to come back and do that again on 7 days rest. My experience with these types is that once the public sees that, they hammer them the next time, and many of them go backwards to some extent since they have never achieved that kind of speed before. I will take the chance this is just such a scenario and play to beat her.
5 My Ghost is fairly steady and is what she is. She is versatile enough to either float out, or leave and hunt a nice trip. I could see Roy blasting off here and hoping to get to the front and then let one but not both of the favorites go and take his chances from there. If he does that, she has a minor shot if that leader comes back to them and also fends of the other one in the process.
Race 5
5 Flashchap
4 Alure
1 Ivy Lynn
10 Sunday Shoes
Seems like its Flashchap's race to win or lose. Unlucky loser last time, but now she is tight and Roy knows her. He likely moves earlier and attempts to draw off to avoid someone nipping her on the line.
1 Ivy Lynn showed flashes of speed for the previous trainer, but she was erratic and didnt look great parading several times. Since the move to the new barn, she has become a lot more consistent. She will add lasix here and if that moves her forward, it might be enough to get her there.
2 Ibelieveinangels moves up in class here off 2 straight and 5 straight first or second finishes. She is the ML choice and she does stack up well here, but others look just as good. A short price is coming and I don't see her as good value facing a bit tougher competition here.
3 Titian has been a disappointment since she showed up at this track. She has blown good trips in good spots and generally she has no oomph in the stretch. Her time will probably come in this class, but I don't see it as tonight.
4 Alure likes to leave but has drawn two 8 holes in a row. Now, she moves into the 4 slot, and its go time to see if she is good enough to compete with these. I am on the fence with her, as her gait seems suspect for me. There isnt much good early speed here, so she should get the trip. She has a shot as there are questions about others in here.
5 Flashchap a new purchase for Roy, looked like a winner last time but a horse that zig zagged a lucky trip nipped her up the inside late. She looks very tough this time in with these again. She is my top choice. She has a class edge on many of these and with Roy and the 5 hole, this is her race to lose.
6 Shesamanlishi has looked horrid parading lately and is making breaks. Lyle got her requalified and he will attempt to get her around here. Otherwise, I see her as a no shot type tonight.
7 The Green Book isn't the prettiest mover, but she has banked 89k doing what she does. She avoids Medley Seelster here and she can leave well, so anything's possible. But I like others tonight.
8 The Bear A Cuda added lasix last time and had an interesting trip, zagging his way to a clear path late and he blew up the tote board. He gets the outside again and isnt likely to get that lucky a trip. No thanks tonight for me..
9 Meadowview Rothy raced well last time to take them all down. Now, she moves up and draws outside. I think at best she needs to adapt to this level, and post 9 only makes that tougher. I will watch her. She is a late bloomer who is getting slightly better as she goes along.
10 Sunday Shoes would be very attractive with this bunch if he didnt draw the 10.hole. But he did. He would need a lot to go right to overcome that. He isnt impossible if certain things happen.....a couple of breakers, some sort of speed battle, picking up very live cover. That is a lot to pin your hopes on.
Race 7
2 Chic Choc Rose
No play here as I cant see going against the newcomer. Nor would I play her at very short odds. Lets see what she is like.
2 Chic Choc Rose is a 9 time winner who exits the barn of Auger and ships west from Quebec and Rideau, while entering the barn of Menary who trains for team Burke. She is almost a month off, but that is no concern as I'm sure she has been schooled and trained a few times in the interim. She won her last in 57.3 at Rideau, and that alone stacks up well here, and she also adds lasix to the mix. Roy jumps aboard the change parade train, and she will have to be seen. Unless I see something I don't like, she is very tough to go against at a likely very short price.
Race 8
3 Flirty Dancer
1 Right Here Hanover
2 Roxie Hart
8 Flanagan Sunshine
6 Getthegreen
Kind of a mixed bunch, so looking for some sort of mid level price to score.
1 Right Here Hanover will have the trainer driving tonight as McClure is not available. He blasted out from the 8 hole last time with McClure and held okay for 3rd, but he doesn't usually start as well from the rail, and that would require the driver to work a trip, which I don't have the confidence that Turcotte can get that trip.
2 Roxie Hart is done with her sire stakes career, but looks like the type that could grind out 100 to 150k on this circuit until she is ready to be bred. She is fast, fairly consistent, and has shown decent class. Being that her dam is by Deweycheatmnhowe, its not surprising that she is a bit flighty and hard on herself parading, and that she has to come out after all the others have come to the track, even if she has the 3 hole like last time. Nevertheless, she behaves and races tough when the car pulls away. Last time she did draw well and left hard, and with the very significant class relief she had, she was a solid 2nd in this class and comes right back to it. She only fits it because she is Ontario sired and gets a break on the nw5 condition to make it 6. She has 5, so she wins her way out if she wins here. I would think that makes her more likely to be 2nd than win. I will go against her on that variable. If she wins here, she either goes into the field or has to race at the Preferred level, which currently she is not viable to try.
3 Flirty Dancer gets a trainer change but keeps the same connections, including the part owner trainer, as he is likely headed south to train babies for the winter. In this class last time she left hard but had to duck in and take a seat, and was even from there. She gets a positive driver change here and a much better post and is a candidate to do much better if she gets near the top and gets a trip. She is a viable value play as a longshot if she brings 8-1 or higher. She gets in this class only on the special addition portion at the end, which serves only her needs.
4 Wildturkey Hanover has done very well for Waples Jr. as a 5k yearling who races at this level and already has 110k made and he isn't done with his 3yo season. However, he looks overmatched against some very tough ones here, including former and current Gold types and others who win regularly at this level. I cant see him taking all of these down, but he has a decent shot at 4th or 5th money. When many of these win their way out of this class and the race office doesn't write in special conditions to fill the field, at that point he can be a decent price horse if he holds his form.
5 Major Bank has missed a month now since his last, which was well below this level and based on how he finished that mile he may have been sick. Either way, he is likely just looking to go around and get back in action, so the level is not important. I will pass on him tonight but watch to see where he is at going forward. He is facing younger ones here but with this race and his next, he drops a big money win and can find some soft condition. At that point he can be assessed.
6 Getthegreen didn't win last year but made 107k in 7 starts. That made it easy for him to return, and win the maiden and nw2 easily and fairly early. He added a Grassroots win to that and that is his 3 wins to date. Now, he hangs out with Gold caliber types and others who have almost maxed out this class while he is near the bottom part of the condition. He was a bit player at best in the Gold tries and no factor in the Superfinal. Last time, with J Mac driving, he came on late to get 4th money and only get beat a length for the win. They seem to be playing the long game with him, as you would expect from Mayotte, who has a long history of making big money with good horses who race for years and pile up the money over several years. With J Mac away and Roy choosing Flirty Dancer over him, I expect Mayotte to continue the cheque hunting and the career progression tonight and at some point in the next few weeks, pop off a good win in this class and start moving towards a higher level. But not tonight.
7 Cally L the newcomer here, as her Ohio SS career is now over and she heads to this circuit with new connections, owner and trainer. She is almost at 100k, but that is while only showing 4 fair wins and a mark of 58 over Northfield, which is a very fast half mile, taken 3 and a half weeks ago, her last start. She will have to show me she belongs anywhere near this field. She looks like a 100-1 outsider with these.
8 Flanagan Sunshine has some class and good speed vs these to bring to the table. He does draw the 8 hole, however he blasted out from the 9 last time against arguably as good or better than many of these and was only beat 3/4 of a length. I don't like that he has been raced so hard lately, so I want to see how he looks parading. You can only race trotters so hard so many times in a row before they feel that burn. He is likely to take action here, so I am inclined to go against him. Depends on what I see from him before the start. Hudon has driven him all along and drives many for this stable but went away from him for one that is only a mild contender. That should be noted.
9 Chip Happened shipped in from the Bs more than a month ago and was solid against easier. His last two against tougher he has not been close, but he did have the rail both times and as he likes to be near the front, that was a handicap for him. He does win a lot, but this time he has the opposite problem He can blast off, but he has many inside him who will beat him to the punch and not let him into a hole. I have to pass on him tonight, but he bears watching for better variables, a class drop and a middle of the car post.
Race 10
3 Buck Dancer
6 Nzuri
1 Caballero
5 My Holy Moly
Not the most reliable bunch, so taking a short price on anything is no good. My top 2 are likely to both be short prices, but I would use all 4 equally and I see them mostly as having equal chances based on consistency. There are no singles in this bunch.
1 Caballero is the type of horse I have always hated to back. He is an extreme hot head, borderline nutcase at times, he has breaking and gait issues, and he doesn't impress you when you see him parade. But like some trotters, when he has his good days, he is very good and usually wins because his bad days allow him to get in with bad groups like this. He is coming in off 4 races in a row where he has not gotten a cheque, and he generally has looked bad doing it. He does get an excuse last time, as he drew the 9 hole, sat way back, then closed 9 lengths in the stretch, trotting his own last half in 56.2 to trot in 55.2. He keeps the same driver which is very important for one like him. Because he has been a bad Caballero for a while, he gets to drop in with horses that he can handle if he can be the horse he was 5 back, when he wired. He also shows 3 breaks in his last 6 lines, but his win was in 54.2. I'd use him on the chance tonight is his good version. Obviously, he is horribly unreliable, but so are many of these. At least he does have ability.
2 Victor Invictus has improved as he has aged, which you would expect with an old school type like Duford. He is now 9, soon to be 10, yet he has now banked 300k plus, and seems to be getting a bit better every year. Whereas he almost never won back a few years ago, he seems to take his fair share now. He has 18 lifetime wins, with 8 of those coming in the last two seasons. His current form is not great, with only a 4th place cheque in his last 6 starts, but in his defense he was horribly over his head in most of them. His last two at more reasonable levels have not been good either, but he did have the 10 hole two back. He moves back up a level here, and for me, that seals it for tonight. I will pass on him, but he is dangerous with these if a lot of them don't show up or blow up, which isn't out of the question. I will take that risk with him tonight.
3 Buck Dancer is the 2-1 ML choice, based most probably on his fast qualifier that makes him look race ready with a bunch like these, and his overall record and company he has kept. He has been away for 4 months now, but in his case, that is probably a good thing. Not having to trot fast miles in the warmer weather plays with him, as he is now fresh and not chewed up. He has handled these types before, and he is really a winter horse at this track. When good, he can win several in a row when he is allowed to take a claiming tag in an optional claimer scenario. While not listed for a tag on the program, it appears that is the only way he fits this condition. Either way, he is spotted to win. As he is generally easy to spot in the post parade in terms of how good or not good he is going to be that night, that will be the most important part for tonight.
4 Jokic like his friend to the left of him on the gate, he is usually very easy to spot in the post parade if he is not going to be good that night. He ships back in from the B tracks where he does most of his racing now. In his one start on the page at this track, he tried to wire this class but couldn't last the entire way, although he did hold on okay to take 3rd money in a fast mile relative to these types. That was then. His last two haven't been great, but he does have excuses. Two back he was way over his head in the Preferred at Flamboro, and last time he drew the 7 at London, made a break and had broken equipment. Like some other contenders in here, on his best day, he can win this. I want to see him parade and then score out. He is possible. At least he draws well and he likes the front.
5 My Holy Moly grinds out 40 to 50k each year for his small stable which also owns and bred him. His last two lines on the page are not good, but he also gets some excuses. He made a break at the start last time and he drew the 8 hole at Flamboro in the Preferred the start before that. Before that, at this track, he was a bit player with far better than these and took a decent 2nd at Grand River with similar to these types. I don't love him, but I wouldn't toss him either. Borth chose against him. Ratchford is very good with trotters and brings in some decent longshots on occasion.
6 Nzuri gets significant class relief here and importantly, he gets post relief. With one like him, who leaves okay but not fantastic, the difference seems to be sitting 6 lengths or so closer at the quarter or half than if he draws the nine hole like last time and sits 11 or 12 out of it. He only got beat 4 lengths last time, so, its a big plus for him tonight with a much softer bunch. I don't see any Perfetto's or P L Robert G's in this group. To back him you take a marginal, but capable driver. He is one of many that can win if things go right. He shows consistent fast miles and he stays flat. That plays with this bunch.
7 Fabulous Freddie had the 9 hole last time and made a break at the start. Before that, with similar to these, he was a minor player. Knowing his connections, I would think he will be handled with kid gloves here and brush late for a small slice if he can stay trotting. I will pass on him in this spot.
8 Zip Me Up is more of a B track horse, and that is where he takes most of his wins and does most of his races. He starts slow and draws badly here, and his last two have not been good enough. He is strictly a longshot outsider in this race.
Race 11
4 Radcliffe
1 Tymal Riggs
8 Magic Dealer
6 Insanity
No clear cut dominant horse in my view. Looking for something to step up at a reasonable price. Radcliffe looks like that horse to me.
1 Tymal Riggs went a solid mile last time, making the lead and keeping on going for a solid win. He draws the rail here and meets some tougher ones, on paper anyway, and he generally doesnt leave as well from the rail. He also will find that others want control here and are not likely to lie down for him. So, he will have to rough it if he wants to be near the top. He isnt the type that doubles up often and especially when he isnt at the bottom class level. I think he is bad value if he goes off at shorter odds, and I will play against him. He is the 2-1 ML favorite, although I think he is more likely 7-2, which is still way too short for me in this spot.
2 Fireinsidemyveins returned to the big track last time and he was slightly over his head. Most of his wins come at places like Tioga, Flamboro and Grand River. He is almost at 200k life, so he isnt a slug, but he is a very infrequent winner when he races A track horses and isnt at the bottom of the class ladder. He isnt the type who beats Tymal Riggs, Southwind Domino and their kind unless they are no good at all, which is possible here, but even so, there are others who have a better track record of winning than he does. I would think he is looking to sit mid pack and then brush late for 3rd or 4th, which is certainly within his wheelhouse tonight. He trotted in 55 flat last time and if he can stay close to that, he has a decent shot at the bottom of the Super. He ran in badly at the start last time and collapsed in deep stretch when he had a shot at a small cheque. I don't see him as a win candidate here.
3 Hungry Hill didn't rise in class last time, but he caught a tougher group, of which Willys Home Run, a million dollar winning Grade A stakes horse in her day was one of them. He got away poorly, trailed, picked up the cover of Willys Home Run, but gapped it badly and was clearly out trotted at 50-1 in what turned out to be a race where he was well over his head. He still seems at least one second off most of this field, and needs a class drop back to the ones he finished 2nd with on October 2nd. I will wait for that day.
4 Radcliffe looked sharp parading last week but then sat too far out of it to close that gap, although he did make up 10 lengths in the stretch. Like his half brother Pemberton, he has his issues, and like him, missed most of his 4yo year, while his brother missed all of it. Also like his brother, when he is good, he can be really good, and he seems to be heading towards that form now late in his 5yo year. He is fresher than most of these and his HOF trainer Paul Walker knows how to manage one like this. The driver is not ideal here, but he wins some at this track on the right horse, and his 54.1 mile last time stacks up very good against the logical contenders here, a few of which are ripe to not perform. He is the one I will go to.
5 Southwind Domino looked very sore parading last time, wonky even, and then when he was scored out looked like his back end couldn't generate the speed he wanted to and needs and thus he was protecting himself. He is a hard trier, so he sucked it up in the race, but as it appears he is sore over his back and possibly stifles, he couldn't muster that extra he needs to be more of a viable win candidate. Here we are 10 days later, he finds a very soft spot, the types he should blitz, but he will have to be seen as he is not viable and likely to be worse than last time and if he is, he is horrible value. Roy is very good with these types, but there is only so much he can do.
6 Insanity ships in from the B tracks here and he is almost a month off the track, as he was scratched sick from his last scheduled outing at Flamboro. He shows a 55.1 mile over Grand River, so he plays with this bunch on the overall speed requirement, and he can leave enough on occasion, with the post here playing to that likelihood. He also beat The Fixer 2 back at Grand River and that horse would also play with this bunch. But, that was 2 months ago. How tight is he? I'd say he is usable as a cover type include on the chance that he has been schooled back fast enough to suggest he is race ready to compete tonight.
7 Wheelin My Bentley ships in from London and he has been off since late May. As the driver is also the owner here I would suspect he isn't going to be pushed in this spot if they gave him all that time for whatever issue he had. I will pass on him tonight and watch him for future reference.
8 Magic Dealer drew outside last time, went to the back and just followed around. He draws slightly better this time, but not much. He did make the lead 2 back, and then just kept going for an easy win, but, he only had to trot a back half in 59 to do that, and he started with a better post. You could also argue that field was much softer than many of these. I would think he is hunting for 4th or 5th with a late brush to pick up the ones who are spent.
9 Lilys Lass generally does her best racing at the B tracks and now she changes hands from the longtime connections. With the bad post and the so so form, her 9-2 ML seems ridiculous, and I would think she is well above 20-1 in this field. I cant see her in this spot.
10 Malone draws bad, the worst post, has iffy form, and has not beaten much softer than this bunch lately. He has 11 thirds this year, so even from a good post I would have trouble backing him. Not tonight for me.
5 My Ghost
3 Love Wins
4 TH Trix R Forkids
A lot depends on who stays flat and who can get to the front before the half.
1 HP Sophia is still a maiden after 9 career starts. However, 7 of those starts have come in stakes races, and some of those were Golds. That seems to have taken its toll, as her last two have not been good, and she hung in to the top of the stretch last time before fading. Either way, she gets 2k for just showing up tonight, and more if she stays flat and others don't. I could see her just floating out, sitting 3rd or 4th at the half and just moving up the inside to at least mid stretch. She would need a lot of good luck to get the win though. In her favor is that unlike most young trotters, she starts well from the rail at this track.
2 Kountry Clover loses J Mac as he is away, but picks up Cullen. She was 2nd best at less than even money last time, but she was already locked into the final, so they had no reason to gut here there. She has been very steady and solid as two year old trotting fillies go. On paper, she looks very tough to beat here at a very short price.
3 Love Wins blasted off last week from the 8 hole, made the lead in 27.1, a speed she had not showed in her many starts in any quarter, then went 3 straight 30 second or more quarters to be a spent 5th by almost 10 lengths. She also tried to leave in 27.4 in early September, made that lead also, then went the same mile as last time to back up then too. I would think that tactic is now off the table. She has a fair shot at 2nd or 3rd if she leaves reasonably, sits in, and one of the two main contenders blows up. Her consistency and leaving ability are two pluses for her in a race where trotters break and others need to be held together leaving.
4 TH Trix R Forkids looked like a million bucks parading last week, then broke her maiden easily in her 4th life start in an impressive 55.4, which is a second faster than anyone has trotted in this field. Nevertheless, she now has to come back and do that again on 7 days rest. My experience with these types is that once the public sees that, they hammer them the next time, and many of them go backwards to some extent since they have never achieved that kind of speed before. I will take the chance this is just such a scenario and play to beat her.
5 My Ghost is fairly steady and is what she is. She is versatile enough to either float out, or leave and hunt a nice trip. I could see Roy blasting off here and hoping to get to the front and then let one but not both of the favorites go and take his chances from there. If he does that, she has a minor shot if that leader comes back to them and also fends of the other one in the process.
Race 5
5 Flashchap
4 Alure
1 Ivy Lynn
10 Sunday Shoes
Seems like its Flashchap's race to win or lose. Unlucky loser last time, but now she is tight and Roy knows her. He likely moves earlier and attempts to draw off to avoid someone nipping her on the line.
1 Ivy Lynn showed flashes of speed for the previous trainer, but she was erratic and didnt look great parading several times. Since the move to the new barn, she has become a lot more consistent. She will add lasix here and if that moves her forward, it might be enough to get her there.
2 Ibelieveinangels moves up in class here off 2 straight and 5 straight first or second finishes. She is the ML choice and she does stack up well here, but others look just as good. A short price is coming and I don't see her as good value facing a bit tougher competition here.
3 Titian has been a disappointment since she showed up at this track. She has blown good trips in good spots and generally she has no oomph in the stretch. Her time will probably come in this class, but I don't see it as tonight.
4 Alure likes to leave but has drawn two 8 holes in a row. Now, she moves into the 4 slot, and its go time to see if she is good enough to compete with these. I am on the fence with her, as her gait seems suspect for me. There isnt much good early speed here, so she should get the trip. She has a shot as there are questions about others in here.
5 Flashchap a new purchase for Roy, looked like a winner last time but a horse that zig zagged a lucky trip nipped her up the inside late. She looks very tough this time in with these again. She is my top choice. She has a class edge on many of these and with Roy and the 5 hole, this is her race to lose.
6 Shesamanlishi has looked horrid parading lately and is making breaks. Lyle got her requalified and he will attempt to get her around here. Otherwise, I see her as a no shot type tonight.
7 The Green Book isn't the prettiest mover, but she has banked 89k doing what she does. She avoids Medley Seelster here and she can leave well, so anything's possible. But I like others tonight.
8 The Bear A Cuda added lasix last time and had an interesting trip, zagging his way to a clear path late and he blew up the tote board. He gets the outside again and isnt likely to get that lucky a trip. No thanks tonight for me..
9 Meadowview Rothy raced well last time to take them all down. Now, she moves up and draws outside. I think at best she needs to adapt to this level, and post 9 only makes that tougher. I will watch her. She is a late bloomer who is getting slightly better as she goes along.
10 Sunday Shoes would be very attractive with this bunch if he didnt draw the 10.hole. But he did. He would need a lot to go right to overcome that. He isnt impossible if certain things happen.....a couple of breakers, some sort of speed battle, picking up very live cover. That is a lot to pin your hopes on.
Race 7
2 Chic Choc Rose
No play here as I cant see going against the newcomer. Nor would I play her at very short odds. Lets see what she is like.
2 Chic Choc Rose is a 9 time winner who exits the barn of Auger and ships west from Quebec and Rideau, while entering the barn of Menary who trains for team Burke. She is almost a month off, but that is no concern as I'm sure she has been schooled and trained a few times in the interim. She won her last in 57.3 at Rideau, and that alone stacks up well here, and she also adds lasix to the mix. Roy jumps aboard the change parade train, and she will have to be seen. Unless I see something I don't like, she is very tough to go against at a likely very short price.
Race 8
3 Flirty Dancer
1 Right Here Hanover
2 Roxie Hart
8 Flanagan Sunshine
6 Getthegreen
Kind of a mixed bunch, so looking for some sort of mid level price to score.
1 Right Here Hanover will have the trainer driving tonight as McClure is not available. He blasted out from the 8 hole last time with McClure and held okay for 3rd, but he doesn't usually start as well from the rail, and that would require the driver to work a trip, which I don't have the confidence that Turcotte can get that trip.
2 Roxie Hart is done with her sire stakes career, but looks like the type that could grind out 100 to 150k on this circuit until she is ready to be bred. She is fast, fairly consistent, and has shown decent class. Being that her dam is by Deweycheatmnhowe, its not surprising that she is a bit flighty and hard on herself parading, and that she has to come out after all the others have come to the track, even if she has the 3 hole like last time. Nevertheless, she behaves and races tough when the car pulls away. Last time she did draw well and left hard, and with the very significant class relief she had, she was a solid 2nd in this class and comes right back to it. She only fits it because she is Ontario sired and gets a break on the nw5 condition to make it 6. She has 5, so she wins her way out if she wins here. I would think that makes her more likely to be 2nd than win. I will go against her on that variable. If she wins here, she either goes into the field or has to race at the Preferred level, which currently she is not viable to try.
3 Flirty Dancer gets a trainer change but keeps the same connections, including the part owner trainer, as he is likely headed south to train babies for the winter. In this class last time she left hard but had to duck in and take a seat, and was even from there. She gets a positive driver change here and a much better post and is a candidate to do much better if she gets near the top and gets a trip. She is a viable value play as a longshot if she brings 8-1 or higher. She gets in this class only on the special addition portion at the end, which serves only her needs.
4 Wildturkey Hanover has done very well for Waples Jr. as a 5k yearling who races at this level and already has 110k made and he isn't done with his 3yo season. However, he looks overmatched against some very tough ones here, including former and current Gold types and others who win regularly at this level. I cant see him taking all of these down, but he has a decent shot at 4th or 5th money. When many of these win their way out of this class and the race office doesn't write in special conditions to fill the field, at that point he can be a decent price horse if he holds his form.
5 Major Bank has missed a month now since his last, which was well below this level and based on how he finished that mile he may have been sick. Either way, he is likely just looking to go around and get back in action, so the level is not important. I will pass on him tonight but watch to see where he is at going forward. He is facing younger ones here but with this race and his next, he drops a big money win and can find some soft condition. At that point he can be assessed.
6 Getthegreen didn't win last year but made 107k in 7 starts. That made it easy for him to return, and win the maiden and nw2 easily and fairly early. He added a Grassroots win to that and that is his 3 wins to date. Now, he hangs out with Gold caliber types and others who have almost maxed out this class while he is near the bottom part of the condition. He was a bit player at best in the Gold tries and no factor in the Superfinal. Last time, with J Mac driving, he came on late to get 4th money and only get beat a length for the win. They seem to be playing the long game with him, as you would expect from Mayotte, who has a long history of making big money with good horses who race for years and pile up the money over several years. With J Mac away and Roy choosing Flirty Dancer over him, I expect Mayotte to continue the cheque hunting and the career progression tonight and at some point in the next few weeks, pop off a good win in this class and start moving towards a higher level. But not tonight.
7 Cally L the newcomer here, as her Ohio SS career is now over and she heads to this circuit with new connections, owner and trainer. She is almost at 100k, but that is while only showing 4 fair wins and a mark of 58 over Northfield, which is a very fast half mile, taken 3 and a half weeks ago, her last start. She will have to show me she belongs anywhere near this field. She looks like a 100-1 outsider with these.
8 Flanagan Sunshine has some class and good speed vs these to bring to the table. He does draw the 8 hole, however he blasted out from the 9 last time against arguably as good or better than many of these and was only beat 3/4 of a length. I don't like that he has been raced so hard lately, so I want to see how he looks parading. You can only race trotters so hard so many times in a row before they feel that burn. He is likely to take action here, so I am inclined to go against him. Depends on what I see from him before the start. Hudon has driven him all along and drives many for this stable but went away from him for one that is only a mild contender. That should be noted.
9 Chip Happened shipped in from the Bs more than a month ago and was solid against easier. His last two against tougher he has not been close, but he did have the rail both times and as he likes to be near the front, that was a handicap for him. He does win a lot, but this time he has the opposite problem He can blast off, but he has many inside him who will beat him to the punch and not let him into a hole. I have to pass on him tonight, but he bears watching for better variables, a class drop and a middle of the car post.
Race 10
3 Buck Dancer
6 Nzuri
1 Caballero
5 My Holy Moly
Not the most reliable bunch, so taking a short price on anything is no good. My top 2 are likely to both be short prices, but I would use all 4 equally and I see them mostly as having equal chances based on consistency. There are no singles in this bunch.
1 Caballero is the type of horse I have always hated to back. He is an extreme hot head, borderline nutcase at times, he has breaking and gait issues, and he doesn't impress you when you see him parade. But like some trotters, when he has his good days, he is very good and usually wins because his bad days allow him to get in with bad groups like this. He is coming in off 4 races in a row where he has not gotten a cheque, and he generally has looked bad doing it. He does get an excuse last time, as he drew the 9 hole, sat way back, then closed 9 lengths in the stretch, trotting his own last half in 56.2 to trot in 55.2. He keeps the same driver which is very important for one like him. Because he has been a bad Caballero for a while, he gets to drop in with horses that he can handle if he can be the horse he was 5 back, when he wired. He also shows 3 breaks in his last 6 lines, but his win was in 54.2. I'd use him on the chance tonight is his good version. Obviously, he is horribly unreliable, but so are many of these. At least he does have ability.
2 Victor Invictus has improved as he has aged, which you would expect with an old school type like Duford. He is now 9, soon to be 10, yet he has now banked 300k plus, and seems to be getting a bit better every year. Whereas he almost never won back a few years ago, he seems to take his fair share now. He has 18 lifetime wins, with 8 of those coming in the last two seasons. His current form is not great, with only a 4th place cheque in his last 6 starts, but in his defense he was horribly over his head in most of them. His last two at more reasonable levels have not been good either, but he did have the 10 hole two back. He moves back up a level here, and for me, that seals it for tonight. I will pass on him, but he is dangerous with these if a lot of them don't show up or blow up, which isn't out of the question. I will take that risk with him tonight.
3 Buck Dancer is the 2-1 ML choice, based most probably on his fast qualifier that makes him look race ready with a bunch like these, and his overall record and company he has kept. He has been away for 4 months now, but in his case, that is probably a good thing. Not having to trot fast miles in the warmer weather plays with him, as he is now fresh and not chewed up. He has handled these types before, and he is really a winter horse at this track. When good, he can win several in a row when he is allowed to take a claiming tag in an optional claimer scenario. While not listed for a tag on the program, it appears that is the only way he fits this condition. Either way, he is spotted to win. As he is generally easy to spot in the post parade in terms of how good or not good he is going to be that night, that will be the most important part for tonight.
4 Jokic like his friend to the left of him on the gate, he is usually very easy to spot in the post parade if he is not going to be good that night. He ships back in from the B tracks where he does most of his racing now. In his one start on the page at this track, he tried to wire this class but couldn't last the entire way, although he did hold on okay to take 3rd money in a fast mile relative to these types. That was then. His last two haven't been great, but he does have excuses. Two back he was way over his head in the Preferred at Flamboro, and last time he drew the 7 at London, made a break and had broken equipment. Like some other contenders in here, on his best day, he can win this. I want to see him parade and then score out. He is possible. At least he draws well and he likes the front.
5 My Holy Moly grinds out 40 to 50k each year for his small stable which also owns and bred him. His last two lines on the page are not good, but he also gets some excuses. He made a break at the start last time and he drew the 8 hole at Flamboro in the Preferred the start before that. Before that, at this track, he was a bit player with far better than these and took a decent 2nd at Grand River with similar to these types. I don't love him, but I wouldn't toss him either. Borth chose against him. Ratchford is very good with trotters and brings in some decent longshots on occasion.
6 Nzuri gets significant class relief here and importantly, he gets post relief. With one like him, who leaves okay but not fantastic, the difference seems to be sitting 6 lengths or so closer at the quarter or half than if he draws the nine hole like last time and sits 11 or 12 out of it. He only got beat 4 lengths last time, so, its a big plus for him tonight with a much softer bunch. I don't see any Perfetto's or P L Robert G's in this group. To back him you take a marginal, but capable driver. He is one of many that can win if things go right. He shows consistent fast miles and he stays flat. That plays with this bunch.
7 Fabulous Freddie had the 9 hole last time and made a break at the start. Before that, with similar to these, he was a minor player. Knowing his connections, I would think he will be handled with kid gloves here and brush late for a small slice if he can stay trotting. I will pass on him in this spot.
8 Zip Me Up is more of a B track horse, and that is where he takes most of his wins and does most of his races. He starts slow and draws badly here, and his last two have not been good enough. He is strictly a longshot outsider in this race.
Race 11
4 Radcliffe
1 Tymal Riggs
8 Magic Dealer
6 Insanity
No clear cut dominant horse in my view. Looking for something to step up at a reasonable price. Radcliffe looks like that horse to me.
1 Tymal Riggs went a solid mile last time, making the lead and keeping on going for a solid win. He draws the rail here and meets some tougher ones, on paper anyway, and he generally doesnt leave as well from the rail. He also will find that others want control here and are not likely to lie down for him. So, he will have to rough it if he wants to be near the top. He isnt the type that doubles up often and especially when he isnt at the bottom class level. I think he is bad value if he goes off at shorter odds, and I will play against him. He is the 2-1 ML favorite, although I think he is more likely 7-2, which is still way too short for me in this spot.
2 Fireinsidemyveins returned to the big track last time and he was slightly over his head. Most of his wins come at places like Tioga, Flamboro and Grand River. He is almost at 200k life, so he isnt a slug, but he is a very infrequent winner when he races A track horses and isnt at the bottom of the class ladder. He isnt the type who beats Tymal Riggs, Southwind Domino and their kind unless they are no good at all, which is possible here, but even so, there are others who have a better track record of winning than he does. I would think he is looking to sit mid pack and then brush late for 3rd or 4th, which is certainly within his wheelhouse tonight. He trotted in 55 flat last time and if he can stay close to that, he has a decent shot at the bottom of the Super. He ran in badly at the start last time and collapsed in deep stretch when he had a shot at a small cheque. I don't see him as a win candidate here.
3 Hungry Hill didn't rise in class last time, but he caught a tougher group, of which Willys Home Run, a million dollar winning Grade A stakes horse in her day was one of them. He got away poorly, trailed, picked up the cover of Willys Home Run, but gapped it badly and was clearly out trotted at 50-1 in what turned out to be a race where he was well over his head. He still seems at least one second off most of this field, and needs a class drop back to the ones he finished 2nd with on October 2nd. I will wait for that day.
4 Radcliffe looked sharp parading last week but then sat too far out of it to close that gap, although he did make up 10 lengths in the stretch. Like his half brother Pemberton, he has his issues, and like him, missed most of his 4yo year, while his brother missed all of it. Also like his brother, when he is good, he can be really good, and he seems to be heading towards that form now late in his 5yo year. He is fresher than most of these and his HOF trainer Paul Walker knows how to manage one like this. The driver is not ideal here, but he wins some at this track on the right horse, and his 54.1 mile last time stacks up very good against the logical contenders here, a few of which are ripe to not perform. He is the one I will go to.
5 Southwind Domino looked very sore parading last time, wonky even, and then when he was scored out looked like his back end couldn't generate the speed he wanted to and needs and thus he was protecting himself. He is a hard trier, so he sucked it up in the race, but as it appears he is sore over his back and possibly stifles, he couldn't muster that extra he needs to be more of a viable win candidate. Here we are 10 days later, he finds a very soft spot, the types he should blitz, but he will have to be seen as he is not viable and likely to be worse than last time and if he is, he is horrible value. Roy is very good with these types, but there is only so much he can do.
6 Insanity ships in from the B tracks here and he is almost a month off the track, as he was scratched sick from his last scheduled outing at Flamboro. He shows a 55.1 mile over Grand River, so he plays with this bunch on the overall speed requirement, and he can leave enough on occasion, with the post here playing to that likelihood. He also beat The Fixer 2 back at Grand River and that horse would also play with this bunch. But, that was 2 months ago. How tight is he? I'd say he is usable as a cover type include on the chance that he has been schooled back fast enough to suggest he is race ready to compete tonight.
7 Wheelin My Bentley ships in from London and he has been off since late May. As the driver is also the owner here I would suspect he isn't going to be pushed in this spot if they gave him all that time for whatever issue he had. I will pass on him tonight and watch him for future reference.
8 Magic Dealer drew outside last time, went to the back and just followed around. He draws slightly better this time, but not much. He did make the lead 2 back, and then just kept going for an easy win, but, he only had to trot a back half in 59 to do that, and he started with a better post. You could also argue that field was much softer than many of these. I would think he is hunting for 4th or 5th with a late brush to pick up the ones who are spent.
9 Lilys Lass generally does her best racing at the B tracks and now she changes hands from the longtime connections. With the bad post and the so so form, her 9-2 ML seems ridiculous, and I would think she is well above 20-1 in this field. I cant see her in this spot.
10 Malone draws bad, the worst post, has iffy form, and has not beaten much softer than this bunch lately. He has 11 thirds this year, so even from a good post I would have trouble backing him. Not tonight for me.
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