Friday, January 2, 2015

Woodbine Harness Notes: December 22-27

 Possible plays: 


Likely play against:


Horses to watch for improvement and value:

December 27 

BADLANDS LOVE, horrible traffic trouble but closed strong at the end. Improving mare who reminds me a bit of DG's Pesquero this time last year. Might just get better as she goes along, one class rise at a time. If the post is right next time, she is likely a huge go.

ER ZACH ATTACK looks like a horse that wants to cut his own mile and doesn't like to be rated but needs to until he improves a bit. Watch for a situation where he can do that. The speed is there and likely will improve as he matures. He has a big fast gait.

DINNER AT THE MET is horribly steppy most of the way and sucker money on a drop in class.

THE REV. nice mile off the shelf. Weaved between and was closing best of all. Maybe he is finally becoming the horse he appears to be. Solid play next time if he doesn't take too much money.

GRIN FOR MONEY. super sharp mile to finish up from where he was at the half. He has come back really good from the layoff and can be expected to move up the ladder as he gains even more sharpness.

AMERICAN GI will get the right trip at some point and score when you least expect him to. He seems to be able to go any kind of trip, but needs things to go his way to get to the winners circle. Perhaps a bit of a drop where he can get the front and some kind of breather.

 IDEAL JET. Jody took him back deliberately, even though he is a noted speedball and poor finisher and he was fighting with JJ, but it got him in a world of trouble later when he had horrible flow and cover. He finished very well considering, but you can be certain he will be gunning next time, and likely gets picked off again. He is very one dimensional, to his detriment.

VIP BAYAMA will not try if he isn't put up close to or on the pace, and I would expect that he is sent next time and gets beat. He is not much stock but wins off the right type of trip.

SURPRISE HANOVER..very steppy behind the gate, actually ran and was snatched up nicely by Saftic, then gapped the whole way and had little to nothing to offer in the lane. Seems the long season is catching up with him now. A good play against on any kind of drop in class or trip to the B's.

TIGHTEN UP..perfect 2nd over trip, and didn't have to do any work to get it nor tip early as his cover was good, yet had zero pace behind several well known poor or bad finishers. Likely needs to find a cheaper claimer to be more racey.

URBANA BAYAMA also had limited ability and should be finding a claimer soon. I would say the 15k non winners might suit him well, but he will be no bearcat in there either.

 December 26

STUARTS DYNASTY got progressively sharper and faster for Ben B but has started to decline. One OTB finish and a break at the wire followed by a win but a suspect effort, almost running and looking to interfere badly on the turn, although Mario B kept him going. The post parade would be key next time,  but if he looks off and takes the likely big chalk  money, he is a good play against. Or, if he looks fixed up,  he might be a play if the price is right.

ULTIMATE RED didn't get the cheap fractions this time, had to work for the front and showed where she fits on the class ladder when that is the case. She can rebound for a price if she gets the type of trip she needs. Watch for it.But the price would have to be inflated and the likelihood of the easy trip fairly solid.

DOUBLE JOY continues to get better and better as she races. She is one to watch for the winter as she could easily reel off several wins, and eventually take down a mare like Witch Dali or Mach Some Noise when they tail off.

VAL DI NOTO is still bearing in bad and when she dives into a cheap claimer is a solid play against. 

CANT STOP got a somewhat suspect drive and then very bad cover which got her angry and bearing in bad mid lane. I would expect an equipment adjustment for next time, likely leaving hard if she draws okay and a much better result. She for sure would have been 2nd if she had live cover or was placed closer to the pace.

MAPPOS MOENHAY  finished okay, but was terrible leaving, ran for several steps and then was just driven with the pack to split horses and take 2nd. Solid play against next time. A Maritime horse like that is likely to get worse, not better as she has to perform to a much higher standard at this track on a weekly basis than she is used to.

NIPPY W HANOVER put in some ugly steps near the backfield before she got rolling and finished well. I suspect she draws better next time and takes major money, which she likely burns.

MISS POPPYCOCK has had lots of chances and good steers and simply cant compete at WEG at the condition level. She either needs to find a cheap claimer or go to the B tracks where her very good gait speed can pay off and not get picked off down the lane when they all finish poorly like she does.

BADLYINCLINED  got a very slick steer from JJ, stayed in and waited while Nine Lives Hanover gapped cover to allow her out and she finished well, while no match for the winner. She can certainly be a major factor next time, and much more so if she could get a pocket trip and sit even longer. 

BRIGHT FUTURE  I don't know where he really fits on the class ladder, but I know it isn't WEG. I am not sure he isn't sucker money even at a place look Flamboro. I would play against him there if he goes that route. He just hangs and wont try, no matter what trip he gets.

CANADIAN EDITION. Hard to get a read on him off that mile. Certainly, for a 6-5 shot with dead cover and a very soft bunch, JJ wasn't in any hurry to pull the trigger 3 deep,  and when he finally did, the horse stopped pretty badly. Possibly he could turn it around at a big price next time. Would need at least 8-1 to consider him.

RANSOM DEMAND. Keeps getting better, just like his older brother did. He is going to put it together at some point, but doesn't have the killer instinct that suggests huge chalk against the types he now faces. Put in some fumbly steps getting into gear in the stretch. Maybe they can sort that out and he can get rolling earlier next time against slightly softer.

MISTRESSTOTHESTARS looks to be interfering badly, likely crossfiring. Watch for signs of a change. Shoeing or rigging and that she can pace better. Looks like the speed is there and a big price could be had if she is sorted out and hits before she tips better form. She was very fumbly in the first turn long before she make the charted break. The issue is not minor, but probably correctable.

SOUTHWIND TERROR. Was kept back off the gate on purpose,  which seems like something he needs considering his history of gate breaks.  That left him exposed for a long trip and it got him late. He is the type that is going to get beat because of himself, and there is little A Mac can do about that.

 December 22

BLUE CHIP SUNSHINE Solid mile start to finish, and unlucky to be behind a bad stopper that killed any chance of making the ticket. Back in that class with a better post, he can score at a decent price.

TELLEMHOWYOULIKEIT. went a monster trip. Had to back off because the 9 horse was running and going sideways to the gate. Spotted the field about 8 lengths doing that. Trotted strong the rest of the way, up the rail with tons to the wire to only get beat a length. Without that interference he wins it easy. He has a big speed pedigree, and also an erratic based one. He must be watched. But could be big value next time or the time after that. Hitching and hiking in the turns though, and looks like he hits his knee hard,  so the price would have to be there.  Likely not next start.

FLIGHT LIFTED. Nice overall mile. Trapped in a shade, but wasn't crying to get out either. Made nice steady gains right to the wire. Might be the type that improves in a start or two and scores at big odds against a false fave chalk. A bit green though for a 3yo turning 4.

WINDSONG JACOBA. Big time improvement and just unlucky in the way the race and trip played out. Big time play next time if there is any kind of fair value price.

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