Thursday, January 22, 2015

January 22, 2015

Race 7

   1 Chantilly Rose

toss, doesn't look like she belongs for trainer Zhok, who has a long history of racing horses miles over their head. Back to Flamboro after this or one more beating.  
   2 Frosty Delight  

really bad gaited mare with a poor gate but nice speed and kind of tough. Mario gunned her out last time and was lucky he didn't cause and accident when she scattered them. At best, they made an adjustment, he drivers her carefully this time  to see if that works, and he comes late for a small piece, and she is a win threat next time.  
   3 Alot Of Sense             

very low percentage 4 year old mare who has never shown she belongs at this track. Gets a better post, but has not even been close to getting a cheque in many recent tries. Pass until she shows something. Most likely a 5 claimer at Hanover when that track opens. Maybe.  
   4 Tomei Seelster                  

doesn't seem to step up her speed at the big track, because she isn't much in the first place. Likely much better off back in a conditioned claimer somewhere at the B's. She just isn't A track stock, even in the winter when they are much softer. Pass for the win. She could hit the ticket under the right circumstances with this less than stellar bunch.     
   5 Arienne                           

goes 2nd off the shelf for Carmen and her debut for this season was an okay following trip from the 9 hole. She was a hot ticket for him on the tote board after a private purchase, but didn't perform and was then shut down abruptly. Probably because he thought whatever her issue was she was a likely solid Grassroots horse, and he is testing her out now to see if that is the case. Tonight she gets raced to win, and is a top contender. A Mac likely guns her out of there. 
   6 Kiss Me Or Not      

 Has been awful for weeks, and really months, since a promising start to her career last year. She goes for trainer Snowden, who rarely gets much out of them, and MacDonnell, who can't seem to win races anymore and frankly doesn't look like he cares until the stakes season starts. She can't even leave anymore and doesn't like to work for it. Total pass for me.   

   7 Weekly Special                    

graduates from a solid maiden win last time and moves up to tackle "winners". But to call many in this group winners is a wild overstatement. She obviously looks like a prospect, and could take these down right away. She is in the mix, but she will have to be closer up than last time to pass them all.        
   8 Regal Roxy                       

B track 4 year old mare who tackles the big fish for the first time and draws the 8 hole. I suspect a test drive is in order,  as she didn't even beat one last time at London who would not do on this circuit in a maiden. She has to show she has the speed to go with these and then convert that into a win. So far, I don't see it and her breeding suggests she doesn't.     
   9 Play Ground                       

raced sharp last time and got up for 3rd after a following trip. Against these, she has a shot, but needs a few things to go her way. I'd use her on a minor level in case she steps up and others falter. 
  10 Maplelea                           

Circled a very suspect group of maidens last time, but did it with ease. These are a bit tougher, but she will likely have to do the same thing again. Maybe she doesn't want that 2nd win so fast before she learns to be more tactical. I call her for 3rd or 4th, but would use her in a minor way as I will the 9 horse.

1st   5 Arienne 
2nd   7 Weekly Special 
3rd   9 Play Ground  
4th   10 Maplelea
Race 8

   1 Hard Oil Button                  

 second time starter who showed nothing in her first try to suggest she can go with even this suspect bunch. Last time was a similarly poor bunch and she trailed all the way. No thanks. 
   2 Ida Sofia                         

certainly has potential, but as of yet, she has not been raced to win and there is likely a reason for that. Riina wants to keep her a maiden until it is time to start moving forward. Very minor shot here only because these are so poor. I'd use here in a minor way for the pick 4 ticket, but don't see her coming through for me.    
   3 Franney Love Dat                  

 comes back off the shelf for Fellows, who is known to have them ready. She tried Gold Fillies last year and held her own if fast time, faster than most of these appear to be able to go. She is the likely favorite in here, and as such, hard to like, but very dangerous. She must be used, but somebody in this group will probably beat her and next week she is a more serious threat. 
   4 Lady Santana                     

 probably has some talent based on her breeding, but so far, her overall times and last quarters suggest she doesn't have enough for a track like this. I might use her in the pick 4, as these are just as poor as her for the most part,  but she is hard to like until she shows a bit more.    

   6 Wake N Bake                       

first time starter off the qualifier for CC and Brethour, a potent combo with these types. She went okay enough in that test,  and she hasn't proved she is a nickel slug like most of these have. Can she beat the 3 and a couple of the other contenders in here? She could. But its tough to win first lifetime start. I will use her in a minor way. 

   7 Arrivista Hanover                 

shows nothing to suggest she is ever going to win at this track, and I suspect will be sent packing to a new barn shortly that races at a B track where she will have a chance to pick up cheques and eventually win before settling into life as a 4 claimer at a place like Monticello or Buffalo. 

   8 Imacutiepatootie                 

 is fast enough to be dangerous and I think eventually will find her way and win this class. I don't think that is tonight from this post with a few that are still ahead of her on the speed and experience ladder. Pass for tonight.      

   9 Im A Canadian Eh                  

 looks like the type that can be very dangerous with a driver like Henry. Send her one week from the 10 hole and she is short and not ready for that. Take her back and come late to pick up 3rd the next time, all the while improving her overall time and fast quarters in a very early young career. She certainly has upset potential if the two logical ones fail for some reason. Must use in the pick 4. 

  10 Warrawee Qually                  

seems to have potential to win this class at some point and then go on to be an okay grassroots horse at the B tracks when May or June comes along. But her breeding suggests she will remain a cut below at this track most nights, and a back of the bus start from the 10 hole tonight excludes her for me. I will pass and watch her.  She is taking her overall time down, and if she shows she can maintain and slightly improve, I might play her next time or the time after that.

 1st   3 Franney Love Dat
2nd   6 Wake N Bake
3rd   9 Im A Canadian Eh  
4th   2 Ida Sofia

 Race 9

   1 I Am Special                     

has always been a talented, yet erratic and hard to control mare. I will continue to pass on her until I see something that suggests she is maturing out of that. At the B tracks she can get away with that. Not here.
   2 Hie Benny                        

 is a talented and very well bred trotter who shows flashes of what he's got, but can't put it all together. I think he will at some point.  That could be tonight. Carmen Hie puts Trevor behind him and maybe he thinks that will make a difference. I will use him on the possibility that the top players in here bomb out and anything with talent can get it done on this night.

   3 Me The Boss                 

 draws inside this time, but just doesn't have the gate speed to take advantage of it. One of these nights he will blow up the tote board,  as he shows flashes of talent every once in a while. I will use him in a minor way here in case tonight is that night. 

   4 Headsaregonna Turn                

 is another who shows signs that he is going to pop and take these at some point. Definite use on the pick 4, and I could see him winning even if the top faves don't blow up. Must use. 

   5 Walk The Plank                 

   is the consistent type who finds it hard to win no matter what type of trip he gets. One of these nights he will, but he is still a maiden racing winners,some of who have mulitple wins in fast time. Cant play him at very low odds, but I will use him in a minor way on my pick 4 in case he steps up tonight when others falter. On his own, if the others behave, he is very unlikely.
   6 P L Gemstone                       

tried it on the engine last time against a lower class than these and was going the wrong way at the end. Hard to like a 5 year old mare that has never won a race other than once at Kawartha against the bottom of the barrel. Pass and toss. 
   7 Etruscan Hanover       

       is well known for both his extreme talent and terrible manners and consistency. I will completely avoid him and take my chances that he blows up again. He got away with it once, but that was a horrific field and he reset quick enough that time. Most nights, if he runs, he keeps running and never gets his act together. If he beats me,  so be it. I wont use him at all. 
   8 Star Of Thunder         

 is very hard to like off his last line and the rest of the ones on the page where he was a runner and never in it. I will pass on him also. Have to see some form from him that suggests he is raceable first. 
   9 Cash For Gold         

     is the obvious play now that he is fit again and has shown in the past he has the high end speed to go with Etruscan and anything else in here. He is no cinch from this post, but certainly has to be used on the ticket. He is beatable though. And he is still capable of running, although he isn't as erratic as Etruscan is.
  10 Page In Time                   

  cannot see any way this one gets it done from the 10 hole. At best he is looking for a cheque when others falter.     

 1st   9 Cash For Gold
2nd   4 Headsaregonna Turn
3rd   2 Hie Benny   

4th   5 Walk The Plank 

 Race 10

   1 Precious Cammill   

Has not won at this track in a very long time but has enough back class  to pop up.  However, getting beat in a 5 claimer non winners at Flamboro makes her very hard to like against some in here who are okay in a straight 8 on this circuit. Minor use in the pick 4.    
   2 Jet Hot Stuff       

  always looks like she will go forward off her previous start, and looks great on the track.  But she continues to trip over her breeding at the tote board. I will play against her,  although I realize one of these nights she will put it together. 
   3 Whipperosa

   did okay at Flamboro, but she is a known hanger and hardly ever wins. Austin is a fine B track driver, but doesn't do well on this circuit and I suspect she is looking for a cheque. 
   4 Thrill Chaser      

  has gone backwards in recent weeks after showing some promise. Hard to like her off that form.
   5 Outer Drive Girl     

no shot. Not sure why she is even here. I guess as a buddy to Zhoks other one. She goes home with nothing, as her trailer buddy does is my call.
   6 One Night Dance    

   can't see this one as she currently stands. She gets worse every time.  
   7 Itza Free For All 

goes first time off the claim for Dave Dowling, who is a sharp guy off that angle and taking this one off Glide is an interesting play, as her form is not great and she does have back class. Top call  for me in the upset. 
   8 Theron Seelster  

 Is dangerous on the trainer change and the fact that she was a pretty good mare at times last year in the States. I'd use her as an option in a field with many who look a lot more like pretenders than contenders.
   9 Kikiskissinkousin

 had no excuse not to get it done last time, but still got passed by a mediocre mare at the line. Post really hurts this one, and I will play against her and the likely overbet status she will bring.

 1st   Itza Free For All
2nd   8 Theron Seelster
3rd   2 Jet Hot Stuff    
4th   1 Precious Cammill 

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