Mohawk Thoughts and Selections, November 2, 2023

Race 1 

 Goober Smack 

He should continue to step forward in his third lifetime try and can lay the smackdown on his rivals again tonight at what figures to be a price of the shortest variety. 

That is what Reid states in the journal. That is, of course, the logical position to take. He is fast. Faster than most of these. He is doing it easily, so the theory is that he has much more in the tank. He has more experience now, so he is more likely to be put on top, maybe a backstretch breeze to the top. That is the theory. But he is still an unknown quantity. 

To me, he has the makings of a Gold colt next year, and since he is a homebred, a cheap bred at that, they were either in no hurry to get him there, or he needed time. His sire seemed to need a bit of time to get to the high level he did. Ive seen others in the family not race at all until they are aged horses. 

That doesnt mean there wont be bumps and stages along the way. If as is, how he was first out and then last week, he steamrolls these in probably 56 if the weather and track accommodate. Will he be as is? Thats hard to say. No matter how you baby them, and make no mistake, he was babied along in his first start, which he could have easily won if that was the motivation, its still racing at race speed and none of them are used to that until they experience it. With a colt like this, post parade and score down are key. They will start to show it by doing little things, like cocking their head, or being ever so slightly steppy or sore behind. If not, and the likelihood most dont want to take him on, he makes front or pocket, gets easy fractions, and breezes home well and easily clear. However, the jury is still out until he is challenged or headed and he has to fight back.

Its always good to remember that the theory that they get better as they race more is a fallacy. Some do, but some regress with the stress and pounding of racing. They might even need a few starts to adapt to that before they come back to themselves again. Busy Making Moni is one that experienced that and was showing signs even while he was winning early that he was feeling the pinch. The other night, he seemed to finally be over the hump where experience and maturity meets soundness and adaptation.

Other than Goober Smack, there are two others who will bring a price relative to the chalk.

P L ROBERT G has gradually taken his time down, hit the ticket in his last 4, and been near the win photo most times. If the chalk were to falter, he is next in line on paper to be the one. Id say 7-2 is fair value, and you might even get 4-1 if they go overboard on Goober Smack. He has tried it on top, and then first over, but his best chance lies with making an early lead, letting the chalk brush by easily, and popping the pocket early stretch to see if he can wear him down. 

DEVILS KISS has had a long season chasing grassroots types and is now a 12 time maiden as a 2yo. If he makes the final he will be 14 starts into his first season and have raced many months from early summer to almost December. Since he doesn't appear to be a grassroots type, I guess get as much money now as you can. He came on late last time to be in the win photo, in what would be considered the softer division, sans Goober Smack. He shows 3 breaks in stride in 8 lines on the page, so he needs some handling. That said, he is competitive with these and fast enough to win if 57 is good enough. Minor shot and I'd want at least 8-1 to try him.

Race 2

TROPHY TAKER is very similar to Goober Smack, except he is already farther along the curve. He is a late starter to the season, missed all the Sire Stakes, and now 4 starts in. He was taken back and brushed late in his debut, similar to the one above. Then, hammered in the wagering, he was sent down the road in 51.4 to score easily and impressively. Off that start, he wasnt quite as good and met a colt who was good enough to make him pay in the stretch. Which he did. He sailed by this guy easily and Trophy Taker was clearly 2nd best. Working for the lead and having to pace on when challenged exposed him just a shade. Moving up to face winners also played into that situation. Last time, similar race, similar result. He went to the top as the heavy chalk but was mowed down in the lane by another who had showed flashes of talent. I would think he might be looking for an inside trip and some cover this time. There are more than a few capable but spotty ones who could step up here. I would take a shot against him this time if he is 1-2 or less. He hasnt regressed, but seems to have stalled at about this speed. One of many to me. The favorite, but a suspect one.

LYONS GERRARD has 3 starts and has not hit the ticket. He hasn't even really been dangerous and goes 2nd start Moreau but loses JMac. He did suffer interference last time, so he gets a slight pass on that. He will have to show more, but he isnt a toss at this stage. 

HONOLULU VACATION shipped in from Flamboro last time for his 2nd life start after not showing much in the first one and went off 86-1. He didn't do much but go around with the pack, but did take his time down enough to suggest that he at least belongs on the fringes. He is worth watching and isn't impossible to make the bottom of the ticket in only his 3rd life start.

BETTIN AGAIN has won 2 races at the B tracks, the 2nd for new connections as Team Blais cut bait on him early. He has showed early speed at the Bs, but was taken back off the pace last time, and since he had post 1, I can give him a pass on that. Otherwise, he held his ground while gaining none. He is two to three seconds off the contenders at this point. 

MAGICAL AOINE broke his maiden before exiting the Beaton barn by going to the top, walking the 2nd q and then accelerating from there. He didnt gain control last time and got burned first over in a middle half in 55 and change. He didnt cave in though and JMac sticks with him. He has rebound potential. Overall, he needs another second or two to get all the money. Debatable if he is at that stage yet.

ROCKET FREIGHT is a maiden facing some strong winners here. He picked up a nice cheque in his sires exclusive race when there was one legit one and a lot of other lesser ones. He did suffer interference last time, but he has to show a lot more than he has in all the other races. Pass for now.

SOUTHWIND CIRCUIT beat maidens last time while being off a month, and then was scratched sick last week. He shows 2 52 and change miles in with grassroots types. He has a chance, but likely his price is shorter than the other ones who also do.

MAX PATRICK shipped in from Flm last time, left well and finished well to pick up 2nd money. He draws poorly and loses JJ to the chalk. He could be value if he can get the pocket trip behind that one. 

GEISHAS TREASURE draws the  9 hole and is  0 for 13 so far. He is hard to like based on that and his mediocre form.

Race 3

LOCKDOWN ROMEO has found a good groove since moving from Bax stable to John Holding and moving away from Sire stakes types. Now with two in a row, the last barely hanging in on the front end while under pressure from both sides. His leaving ability is a big plus with these and his form is good, but I will take a shot against him as he appears all out in winning and others can step up. Or at least one of the many in here with talent but issues.

SID THE KID was well back of the gate and off stride last time and was refunded. That is two early breaks in his last 3. In between those, he trotted a solid mile in 57 that would beat most of these. Have to see him post parade and score down. 

NAPOLEON HILL left out well last time but then blew up right after the quarter while another bad actor beside him did the same thing. He got back down trotting quickly but then gradually backed out of it. That they bring him right back when he fits a very soft maiden at Rideau leads me to think they know why he did what he did last time. He will get a different driver this time. 

DR G missed last week sick and shows nothing before that to suggest he contends. Pass. I have to see him at least compete to back him.

WHEELZABLAZIN shows several breaks but he also can leave and carry that speed if he gets a breather. That could put him on the back of Lockdown Romeo and a sweet trip. Another I want to see parade and score down before I rate his chance. He is capable enough if he behaves and comes to play.

 

BRUTALIZER was first time lasix last time, and went to the top, before being swallowed up by a bearcat in the making and another one who had Gold experience. He held for 3rd, and Fillion sticks with him. He draws well and has competed and even won a Grassroots. He is showing signs of peaking at a good time.

LMC MR SQUISHY hung out with gold types most of the year and held his own, but his only wins were a soft bunch at Hanover and a straight maiden at Mohawk. He left well last time, but began to act up and jumped it off. He was a bad actor in the post parade as well and is clearly not mature mentally yet. He did get back at it fast and finished a clear 2nd. At this point, you dont know what you will get from him. 

Race 4

CACTUSTOTHECLOUDS has become a very consistent type and you know basically what you will get from him. He can trot 55 and change to 56, leave well, needs some type of breather or rest in the mile, and has one brush. Drivers can read the program too and drive him accordingly. Tonight's driver and trainer combo has had him for 4 starts now and he has been 1st or 2nd each time. He is hard to go against and the price will be reasonable with the one below taking money on his shown ability. From this post, his ability to blast out and get a close up trip makes him a decent play if you can get 2-1.

LAST PAGE FIRST, a filly taking on several colts, she shows a lot of breaks on the page and comes off a qualifier. She shows winning in 54 and that would be good enough if she can produce that. She will have to be seen. Im inclined to play against her. 

SISTER ACT beat maidens by gaining control and going a finable slow 2nd quarter, then barely holding on. She always looks good on the track and willing, but in the race, she just doesnt produce. A big ticket yearling, she has been a bust and is likely racing out the early winter then going to the breeding shed. I cant back her for the win.

P L QUINELLA made the grassroots final and raced well but came home with no money. In 3 starts since, he has had 2 bad posts and raced well in the other getting 3rd money. He picks up McClure and he is good with these types. If the faves dont deliver, he is a decent price play at 5-1 or higher. He is a very slow starter and that poses the issue. Perhaps he can get out a bit better this time.

WOMAN OF PASSION is a 2yo filly facing older fillies and many geldings or horses. That isnt a recipe for success in a spot like this when she isnt a bearcat herself. I cant possibly see what the plan would be at this stage of the season. This is a terrible spot for her and my opinion is that she should be eating grass in the field.

IRISH DREAMER ships in from the Bs off two wins but will need vastly more overall speed than you see on the page. I will pass this time. He has to step up and meet winners at this track.

GLENFIDICH won 3 back in a maiden from the 10 hole in 54 and change. An impressive mile. Since then, against these types, he has been MIA. He will likely pop once in the winter, but I dont see this as that spot. 

SHAWN POPS was rushed at 2 and after he bombed out in the Wellwood, he was off for 2 years. Lets see if he can keep up here now that he is racing steady. Winning at 2 means he doesnt get in with maidens, which looks like a more viable play for him. Maybe they will let him in once this winter.

JAYPORT ANNA MAY broke her maiden in the pop up series and then doubled up, but wasnt as dangerous in the final. She draws terrible here and Id think the goal is to take back, brush late for a small piece and see how she fits if and when she draws better at this level. Not tonight for me.

Race 5

PAM has had a lot of chances to get to the wire first but just cant seem to do so. She never races bad, but she is very hard to back when she goes off short like she will tonight. I'd look for something in the mid body of this field to take her down. 

AMERICAN STARLIGHT is a 12 time maiden who has not even gotten 2nd. She is also slow starting as a rule. That would put her at a big disadvantage to Pam if that is the case here. She was able to blast out at Yonkers once and finished well too, but then was on the shelf for a couple of months, which is suspicious. She has enough ability and has faced better than many of these. I will have to see her parade.

SILENT LUCIDITY raced poorly last time in the slop at short odds, raced much better the previous start from the 10 hole and raced very well off the shelf 3 back to be a solid 2nd in 53. I can give her a pass on the last 2 and think she has the ability to produce what she has before, if the price is right. Two to one is not that price. I need at least 9-2 to use her. But she is usable.

RED DIRT FLASH is a B track shipper with 2 life wins already, one of those in 57 at Charlottetown. She was a big ticket yearling for the Maritimes, but that has not panned out and now has shipped West looking to make some money before her conditions run out. She made her first start for new connections last time and did little at Flm, yet ships here. She has upset potential. 

WILDCAT HERA is 2nd off a long layoff late into her 3yo season. She just seemed to go around last time and get fitter, but did go 55 and change on a sloppy track. She has speed and potential. I wouldn't toss her in this spot with questions surrounding anything that looks like a contender in this field. 

HOT COE COE a 2yo, 2nd time starter, who is trotting bred and that breeding indicates soundness issues. Nevertheless, she paces and was well out of it last time but went respectable time. She will have to be seen but Id pass on the win this time. Not impossible she steps up and nabs 3rd though if she is closer and goes forward.

POP THE BUBBLY a 4yo, learned the ropes this summer at KD, but didn't beat straight maidens and is 0 for 18 on the year. She tried her luck here last time, laid out of it and brushed nicely for 3rd money in decent time for what these normally go. JMac chose the 5 horse here over her. That is enough for me to wait another day to see how she responds to going a big mile last time, the first time in ages if ever she has done that.

WINDSUN COCO draws bad, starts very slowly and has shown very little speed to this point as a late starting 2yo. She has finished well at the Bs, but that was against ones that will likely never see this track. They jury is out. I will watch once. 

JILLIAN JIGGS a very late starting 3yo for the Cullen's, who bred her and others from that mare. She has scored easily twice in the last month at the Bs and now ships here before her earnings exclude her from taking this class. She draws badly though and I cant see them blasting off with her. So, lets see how she stacks up and if she can be competitive with A league horses. 

IM A KAREN another late starting 3yo, a homebred, who has done well picking up decent slices but not winning at the Bs. She ships here, but draws the 10 hole and is likely looking to take her time down and wait for another day to compete for the win. She looks like a good winter prospect. Megens elects to switch to a catch driver here.

Race 6

STONEBRIDGE THRILL has not seen a straight maiden or overnight in his 6 race career. He jumped right into the grassroots and lived there until the final. He held his own until that final, but as of today, he still does not start well and digs holes that are hard to win from, as was the case that day when he found a slower half and paced his own final half in 53.2. He picked up a slice then. Last time, back in the Harvest, his odds dropped sharply but he started slow again and dug a hole too deep to climb out of. He was almost a month off then, but, back faster this time, he needs to get involved earlier to take them all down. 

FLAG PARTY has been a fairly consistent colt this year but he finally put it together last time as he left much better and that gave him the jump on the heavy chalk who he meets again here. He paces consistently around 53, sometimes a bit faster, sometimes a shade slower, and his main rival have seen 51 but digs holes and cant overcome them. With the 8 hole this time, he might not be as forwardly placed but he can be as he showed in August when he blasted off from the 9 hole and held his ground the entire way. He could be value if they go overboard on the one above.

WICKED PRINCE stung the favorite last time, then stalked him and blew by him late to score the big upset. He meets much more accomplished and tougher foes here. He isn't impossible, but he will vastly have to step up his game here to take the top 2 down. With the win last week, he is probably already in the final and no reason to gut him here.

BE RIGHT THERE is an 11 time maiden for Jmac and Macintosh, but he has had 4 poor posts in a row and draws better today. He has shown he is good enough to go with these, but a step below late. That doesnt mean he cant step up this time and is good longshot value if he goes off that way this time. Id think 20-1 or more is about right.

BROOKLYN STRONG is in very deep with this group this time and Id think he is hunting for a small slice if he can get it.

LIKE A GLOVE was put on top last time by Filion, who sticks with him, and he faded away in the lane. I expect a different set of tactics this time and a run at 3rd or 4th to get in the final.

LISBON SEELSTER looks to be way over his head on the win front and loses Filion to Like A Glove. I cant see him hitting the ticket. He is much more viable in a maiden race.

BRUDON made the lead after being parked out last time to break his maiden in this series. However, he doesnt look as good as a few who have gone much bigger miles and loses Roy to one of those. He doesnt figure in this spot. 

Race 7

Anybodies race. Faves look logical enough, but they dont win.