Race 3
Even with the 10 hole, can any of these handle Goober Smack? It doesn't appear so. Can he keep it going, or does he regress a bit? That is doubtful, as he hasn't even been pushed or asked to do anything close to what it appears he can. I can only see one who has the ability to go with him and even then, that is a stretch.
GOOBER SMACK seems well within himself, and mtb with this group. He would have to regress in a very large way to not get the job done. As with last week, if he post parades as is, which he did last time, he is virtually a cinch. Post 10 poses no problem as long as he avoids any traffic breakers.
LMC MR SQUISHY is really the only one who has any shot on talent to beat the chalk. On his best day, he is capable of that. He behaved last time and ground down one who was on a roll. Now he meets the beast he avoided last time. I said last time, you don't know what you will get from him each week. If we get the best version of him, its possibly a race.
LOCKDOWN ROMEO is a nice enough, steady, reliable trotter. He goes what he can and isn't without a chance if the chalk blows up and his main rival reverts to his bad boy image. Otherwise, he seems short of their ability. I cant back him against both of them.
NAPOLEON HILL miles over his head with these if he shows up.
SID THE KID is improving, but not enough to beat the top 2 at this stage. If he matures well, he could be the best of the 3 next year. That is a call for another day or year.
DEVILS KISS was going all he could last time to nab 3rd money. Now he meets those and others from the other division. Pass.
VUNDERBAR doesn't show he can be anywhere near the ticket.
P L ROBERT G seems like he has okay, but limited ability. I prefer others who show more and deliver. Good overnight type, but not stakes caliber.
BRUTALIZER seems overmatched with these. pass
ROYAL DUHARAS has some upside and is improving. He is the longest of longshots to win this, but not a toss like some others. He has a chance at 2nd money if one of the top 2 dont perform.
Race 4
PAM is the classic money burner type who eventually wins at a bigger price when absolutely every possible thing goes right. Something like a pocket trip, which she had last time, a leader who caved in completely, but not before she was out and by her, which happened last time, and a backfield wiped out by a breaker, which didn't happen last time. Horses like PAM don't win a race, others simply refuse to beat her when she tries to give up. Tonight, you get chalk PAM again. I wouldn't take those odds, just as I didn't last week. Look elsewhere.
PAM is well on her way to cementing her professional maiden status, yet, she is a solid money maker and likely will have 40k made before she transitions to the nw2 class or goes straight into a conditioned claimer. I'm not sold that they overuse her just enough in races to make sure she gets picked up. Either way, she always looks viable but doesn't seal the deal. I expect tonight to be more of the same.
AVAS ANGEL BABY might go off as the chalk, based on her connections, her previous ability and the fact this barn qualifies them twice to have them race ready off the shelf. I want to see her parade, as they are also prone to racing cripples. She looks like a winner coming off the page.
RED DIRT FLASH will have to start better and do more to be viable. I'm not saying that isn't possible down the road, but so far, she hasn't. I will watch her but I would use her as a cover as she seems good enough on her best day and she is race fit.
WINDSUN COCO spots them 15 plus lengths every time and hasn't shown she is capable of erasing that yet. Brethour is a cagey guy who brings in a lot of maiden boxcar types. Beware, but she has to start better. Pam is Pam, but you don't beat her giving her a 15 length head start.
SILENT LUCIDITY needs to start better to have a shot. That could be on the table here from this post. She is one of many capable of stepping up if the two faves revert to the mean of how they have raced before.
DECKED OUT has a win already and ships in from Pocono where she was double digit odds every start and didn't really appear dangerous. She looks like she will be heading to a new home or conditioned claimer if she doesn't go forward in the next start or two. If her odds are lower this time, I will consider her.
WILDCAT HERA is on a better rotation now and closed up nicely last time. If she can pick up live cover, she has a shot to take them all down. I'd think she brings 9-2 or slightly higher.
ACEFORTYFOUR BELLA is the type that wins races like this. She has sort of hung around for weeks, not racing bad, not being vigorous. She would be a protection use based on the questions I have on both of the probable favorites and the racing style of the other contenders.
Race 5
Jonny Boots is very similar to Pam and what i said about her. But, he is a trotter, and sometimes it just takes time for them to put it together. As with Pam though, no way I am taking any kind of short price on Jonny Boots. He can beat me. Its a very thin bunch underneath him, but a couple have better variables than last time and if Jonny Boots is the fave, they are value underneath. The balance are impossible to stomach.
QUICK FIX has the makings of a cripple, but on one day every few months, he achieves what he probably was before he went on the downhill slope. I have a hard time backing something that looked as bad as he did on the last turn last time, but anythings possible with green trotters.
VIMY RIDGE VENTI shows nothing to suggest he belongs in this race. Nuff said
QUEEN INDEED was done in by the 10 hole last time but she can leave fast and if rated this time, and gets a breather, she turn the ship right back around.
JONNY BOOTS picked up 3rd money last time, but again, he wasn't threatening the real contenders. One day he will get it done. It could be tonight, but, I prefer others who have not yet proved they blow good opportunities many times over.
THE RIGHT TIME will lose the big price this time, as she was a for sure winner last time if not used so early from the outside to gain up close position, and then moved early to take the lead, which only one of them took away. I'd think she is 3-1 or less this time, but is very viable if she parades like she looked on the track last time.
ARCHIMEDES has potential, but even though Lyle was once a top notch driver, those days are long gone. I will wait until they put a catch driver on him. If I was playing the multi legs though, Id use him because he is as good as any.
BELVEDERE FRANKLIN ships in from Flm. He has upside potential but the things that work for him at the small tracks wont play here. Lets see how he adapts. Minor shot only because so many of these just don't impress me and he did win his last.
STARLITCRESENTROLL was parked out last time but held his ground the rest of the way. He is another option for a big price if you don't like the short priced ones, which I don't. 1 for 40 the last two years doesn't inspire confidence.
GO HAVE FUN draws the 9 hole, has the trainer driving and needs a clean line. On top of that, her form and previous efforts are horrid. Complete toss for me and I'd think most.
SHAWN POPS looked horrid in the race last time. He has a long way to go to get back to where he was as a fresh colt. Pass and watch.
Race 7
Drivers race from my view. Trophy Taker draws the 10, and he has showed me troubling signs, but he can leave fast and carry it a fair way. I will go against him, but he can effect the outcome.
STONEBRIDGE THRILL has gait and immaturity issues, but he is a fast closer and likely the best of this bunch going forward. I'd use him but I would never single him.
TROPHY TAKER runs in bad every time, even when he drives away, which he really didn't do last time. He did go a big mile to break his maiden, but mostly, it seems 53 is all he wants at this stage and that wont play here. Adding in the 10 hole means he likely gives it up on the last turn if challenged, assuming he makes the top.
MAGICAL AOINE raced solid last time, but was all out for 2nd. I think he is a few steps behind my top 3 in here, and I will pass on him.
BE RIGHT THERE is the apparent value here. He needs to find a way to get on Stonebridge Thrills back and ride him to mid stretch. If that happens, he has a shot to pass him late at a decent price. He does run in, so losing that ground may cost him, but the price should be right to take that risk.
ROCKET FREIGHT doesn't look good enough to go with most of these in the stretch, but he can get some money and is capable of 3rd if a lot of things break his way.
FLAG PARTY didn't look good parading or on the front end last time and he packed it in early. A reversal is not out of the question, but this isn't a soft bunch. I will pass on him.
MAX PATRICK looks good for a chunk, but he would need a ton to go right to get 1st money. I'd use him as a cover, but I don't like his chances. To many viable options for him to take them all down.
LISBON SEELSTER lost some momentum in the stretch last time then came on again. If there is a bombs away horse in this bunch, he could be it. He needs them to battle in front of him, and that isn't out of the question.
BRUDON looked overmatched last time and draws the 8 hole here. Hard to see how he gets it done with these. Another day for him.
LIKE A GLOVE has tried various styles and none have worked at this level. Post 9 makes it easy to toss him here.
Race 10
Tough race.
STONEBRIDGE BRAVO has missed almost a month from a vet sc sick. She is a habitually slow starter and only moderately gains on these, enough to pick up small slices. She is the ML choice. Because her overall times are better than most of these, and she shows a 52 and change mile on the page, she is likely to take action. Her racing style and lack of wins means that she will go the speed they do, and that makes her a bad favorite if she goes off as such. Obviously, a horse that finishes 3rd in the Gold Superfinal should handle this bunch, but it doesn't always work that way.
YANK MY HALO will go 2nd start on lasix and has been on the fringes for weeks. If you don't care for the chances of the rail horse at her very likely short odds, he is a good viable option at a reasonable price.
HP RUN FOR DAN moved to a new trainer last time off the layoff, but showed little improvement. He is both a slow starter and mediocre at best finisher. He is hard to like in this spot, but he does have a decent win mark and if he somehow could produce that, he isn't impossible with this weak bunch.
TALISMANO is 1 for 30 the last two years and that win was at Pocono, likely in a maiden, which is where he currently fits on the class scale. Unfortunately for him, he has that win and cant race against those. He will have to do a lot more to beat even the weak ones he faces here.
NORTHERN CLASSIC is a strange entry in this class as she has been just barely okay at Flm against much softer than these. She doesn't show any of the speed that most of these do. Its hard to like her at this point. I would think this is just a test drive to see how she goes over the big track now that she is more mature and is already making breaks at the Bs now that the competition is getting tougher.
MAJORDANCEMOVES is the wildcard in this race as he ships in from Dayton and gets the trainer change. He had poor posts his last two but shows going right to the top the start before that, which he won. He will have to be seen parading, but I'd think he is a major contender in a race where most are spinning their wheels.
MSFRANNIE another shipper with a new trainer, this one from the Meadows and goes to Moreau. She didn't race at 2, but lately, she has come on strong, albeit against the very weak Meadows nw1 and nw2 classes, which are rarely deep this time of year. Nevertheless, she is 6 for 6 in the top 2 on the page with 3 of those wins. With the move to the tougher circuit and move to the bigger track, can she take her 58 speed and go 56 or faster? That is the question. She hooks up with JMac for her Mohawk debut.
GLENFIDICH has not looked viable in 3 starts at this level, and while Filion sticks with him over many others he was listed on, most of those are no shot longshot types. This guy is not a no shot type, but he is hard to like since he won the maiden race, is 2 for 27 lifetime and one of those was a win at Flm last year. Post 8 doesn't help his cause and he is already a slow starter.
TWIN B SHOWMANCE left well last time but gradually faded out of it and Filion picked his stablemate over him even though both are big longshots at best. He doesn't seem to have the overall speed of maybe 3 or 4 others here. I would think he is looking for a new home in the very near future.
SISTER ACT has been lucky to hold 5th money off two easy trips where she faded badly. Post 10 this time, she has become an easy toss. I don't know where she goes from here, but its not working right now with these types.
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