Saturday, April 7, 2018

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: April 7, 2018


1  POP I

was used hard to make the lead last week and he backed away sharply once headed. He wasn't that much better the week before. He won for Moreau first off the claim, then got sick. Perhaps he will just turn it around at a price. He is possible on that angle.


 found the right class, trip and field to finally win a race 2 back. He reverted back to his usual form last time, at this level, and until he shows me more, I expect him to continue to get beat unless he is lower than this, and maybe even at that level too.

jumped it off last time, which he has always been prone to do, but he was solid the time before, and even paraded great that night too. He drops back to that level here, and he is my top pick to turn it right back around.


 received a bad drive by Fillion 2 back, as he let him get shuffled out the back door completely. Last time, he just put him on the front and wired them. He moves up slightly here, and that is enough to deter him, as he appears very class sensitive.


 never looked good last time and ran eventually. He has been going the wrong way for weeks, and I need to see a reversal to get back interested in his chances.


 is what he is, and that is well known. Until I see him parade, I make no call on him. Because its race 1, I get to see him before I make any real bets. At least they are giving us that chance tonight. He is buyer beware.


 moves up off 2 solid 2nd's, but was bearing in badly, hard to steer in both of those late. It only gets tougher when you have to beat better when that is the case. No thanks.



can leave plenty and the short field helps him greatly here, but he has trouble finishing it off. If he trips out and can hold the pocket to Nirvana all the way this time, he has a shot to take him near the end. A minor shot to do that.


moves back to Ben B, where he has been before I think. He is most potent with Moreau, and even at that, he has trouble at the top level. Bit player in my view that gets money tonight just by showing up. Another day maybe.


left out and then went unchallenged to the half last time and there was no beating him. He could get that same edge here again, and its his race to win or lose. I cant go against him and I'd be inclined to single him. When he gets good, and around this time of the year especially, he can dominate. The shorter the field, the better for him.


 is capable enough when he is right. He didn't look right to me last time and he made the break leaving. He will have to be seen, but at this time of the day, I think he is in tough taking down Nirvana or The Rev who is likely sitting on Nirvana's back all the way.


  didnt race for a long time, then came back from the Maratimes and came to life here, was sold, but now races sporadically, which is a concern competing with the top level at this track. I will play others.


I will breeze over this race, as I don't really play cheap claimers anymore.


​has poor form, but he did draw post 1 and 2 in every start on the page at WEG, and that has been a bad place to be since New Years, resulting in a lot of bad starts for him. He does again, so he is up against it, but perhaps watch for another day.


moves up off the claim, but this level has proven to be outside her comfort level to this point. She would have to be a lot better than she has been in her recent past.

should be called erratic, not xtatic, as he seems to just pop off a big effort, then find a bunch of reasons to fail otherwise. That is the nature of this class anyway, so, he can get it done on a relative class drop if tonight is one of his good nights, as he had at Yonkers a month ago.


has horrendous form and rarely looks good parading.  Hard to toss anything in a field like this, but he is the one I'd go to if I had to pick one.


 raced badly off the claim and now has missed almost a month. Maybe he was sick. Maybe he just is raced out. He can get that way and need some rest. He is hard to figure race in, race out.


Made a break leaving last time first off the claim, from the rail, and I can give him a pass on that. He too can be very erratic, but on his best day, he can pop off a monster mile and blow up the tote board as he did in his lone win in the last 2 years. Post 6 and McNair might work for him if he can get him to the gate and follow it out without a fight.


drops in class, but needs to. He has not been impressive for some time. His trainer, who was once the toast of WEG town, is now 2 for 69. Pass.


Draws outside, and that can cost one like him when he is willing to cave if the trip doesn't go his way. I would go elsewhere and play the "rat that lucks out wins this race and doesn't figure" angle.



​Appeared to me last time to be test driven, taken to the back, with the knowledge the winner was a cinch, come late and tune him up for future tries. That try is here tonight. He keeps McNair, comes off a decent win two back off the claim, goes for Marfisi, who is winning at 50 percent, and he hooks a weak bunch in a 6 horse field. He looks like the one to me, and the price should be okay.


To his credit, and his owners bank accounts, has won 2 of his last 4, making almost 12k in the process, while basically tripping out or outstaggering some pretty weak competition. These look no tougher, so 3 times a charm? I think not. Life doesn't work that way. I will go elsewhere.

 Came late last time and got there in time, with a solid steer from McClure, and he meets no tougher here. He should win this, but he has been known to just bomb out from time to time. He won his way out of tough conditions by winning in a bunch, but now he has to fight it out week to week with others who have done the same. Player, but only one of many.


 is 2 for 56 the last two seasons, with one of those wins last year at Georgian, the other at the bottom of the page taking down McDave. McDave..nuff said, and he came a weak back half to do it. He was a very nice 2yo, and has had flashes of being okay since, but lately, he looks like he is on the downside of his career. Others look better for the win, but he can effect the outcome with his gate speed here.


Ships in from London but he has won here before. He has competition for control here, and if he blasts, even though its a short field, we could see a rodeo. That doesn't favor him when he needs to race at the B's to get his wins lately. Pass.


gets significant class relief here, 3rd off the layoff, he is a noted drop and pop specialist, and he should handle these. Hamilton notes that he wasn't very interested last time, and that concerns me when a horse comes off a layoff and has the miles on the tires that he has over the years. He is possible, maybe even probable, but I can go against him with others. Must use, but certainly iffy on what I see.



​Moved up to face the toughest ones and held his own. He was sitting in but was not about to go gunning at his stablemate, so he hung back and came home with the pack for 5th, but raced solid. Before that he ran into the current buzz saw that nobody is beating at this track, and was 2nd best to him. This is a good intermediate level and field for him.


Has certainly matured into a solid aged horse and he seems to come ready to compete hard every week. This is a fairly tough bunch, he isn't outclassed by them either and his overall speed matches up, but he will need the right trip to take them all down.

 Comes in off a solid 3rd in the top class and a win just below this level, yet he fits the condition as he completely missed a cheque in the 3 races before that. His 54.3 back half last time certainly makes him very dangerous with this bunch and he can leave enough to make it work for him.


has matured nicely into a solid upper end condition horse over the last year or so, with his last race one of the best for him in a long time. However, this is another level entirely and in this deeper field, he will have to beat more than just a dull Jins Shark and a bunch of others who would be 99-1 in this race. He can get a small piece if things go his way.


​has missed more than a month, and while he drops and has 2 2nd place finishes at the level just above this, the sharpness he would need to take many of these down is not there in my view. I will watch him for a play next time.


Came from out of the clouds and blew up the tote board last time, on a night when that was the norm. He has found his legs lately, but again, he meets others who look a lot better than him at this stage of their respective careers. He is a victim of his own current success in that he has to tackle horses that are beyond his reach. Pass.


Moves up off a 7th place finish a class below and meets some very legit class droppers with solid form. No shot.


Failed last time and is one start away from a major class drop and easy score. I expect a no try effort tonight from him and just enough of a brush to set him up for next time.



​Race well last time but couldn't take down Flying Isa and now bumps up the tag and meets some conditioned foes. He looks short on class and speed with a few of these, but he could be good for the bottom of the ticket if they don't perform and come back to him.


Is a habitually slow starter who comes from well out of it and picks off whatever he can as they come back to the field and he can find a seam to do that. Just the type of longshot that wins races like this if the top faves bomb out, of which the likely ones in this race have a history of doing for a bunch of different reasons. The slight class drop in his last two have made him a shade more competitive, and he is also a horse that is best handled by someone who drives him steady. McClure sticks for time 3 now, and if things go right, meaning in this case that others go wrong,  he is a price option here.

 Has decent leaving ability, but he relies on going to the B tracks to take them all the way, which he did last time. Back here, he seems to think the tote board is the finish line, and sadly, it isn't. He should be a very good earner all summer racing a lot at the B tracks when they start opening up and his tactical early speed gives him a bigger edge there than it does here.


Came off the shelf, had a prep at Flamboro, then gunned to the top and coasted to the half, and in a soft and gapped out field, just had to go even from there to wire them up at a big price. He could be one of those that finally finds himself as he ages, so he isn't a toss, but the way he won last time and who he did it against makes me think it was more smoke and mirrors than reality. He will have to prove it to me one more time before I'm A Believer.


Was a pretty nice horse as a colt, and even won the Preferred a time or two when younger. That was then. He has lost a step or three since then, and while he won at the bottom 3 back, he hasn't gotten it done at this level in 2 races since. I could see Roy blasting out with him here, and if so, whoever is on his back is viable if they get out in time. Who that is I'm not sure, but that is probably the winning trip. And that isn't him.


Has known issues and talent, and in that he sometimes can overcome those while he lasts, which is pretty short most seasons, he can't be relied on week to week to perform. Post 6 can help him here if he can get away mid pack and not way back, and stay on stride. If so, he can trip out and beat this suspect bunch.


 Doesn't win often and has a trainer who is 0 for 25 this year. She would have to massively turn her form around. No thanks. Too many options in here to take a flyer on her.


Moves up without winning, but that doesn't concern me, as many of these are short on current class. He gets post 8, but this is likely to be a tight pack and he can stay in range. He has been a beaten fave 3 in a row, and if he was sent off a 4th time at that rating, I would play against him. But, if he goes off 7-2 or above, he is possible with the nature of this field and how the race might play into the hands of a guy like J Mac, who wins these types of races on the line. 

 RACE 7 


​Ships to Moreau from Allard, from which he was the same horse we saw here last year---he is inconsistent and he has trouble winning most nights. Unless Moreau finds some key to him, I'd say he is heading for the 20k conditioned claimer in the near future. Pass for me.


Got it done at the bottom class but reverted to his hanging ways back in this class 5 days later. At this point, I think he is in deep when he doesn't have the class relief, and he is even marginal in with those. Pass for me until I see him tagged and find a level that works for him.

  Drops in class and picks up J Mac.  He is just one of those horses who is always viable and always beatable, at both classes lower and higher than this. He has missed a month now and was pacing in 52 every week, but only taking small shares because of the company he was keeping. I'd have to think staying out of the box when he was eligible to this class means he was sick on some level. When you add up all the negatives..possibly sick, short, low percentage winner, minor class drop off a poor line, and possibly still a shorter price with the fast lines on the page, I can take a shot against him and toss him out of the pick 4's entirely.


Ships in from Rideau with good form and he is a 35 time winner who knows how to make money moving around the condition classes. Perfect type who could upset this bunch who also do a fair amount of that. In terms of pros and cons....he picks up Fillion, gets a good leaving post, and comes in off a fast win at a Preferred level. On the con side, he won off a pocket trip, gave it up before that when he cut it, and probably isn't much faster at the big track than he is on a half or a 5/8ths. If you are looking for an upsetter, he isn't impossible. Thats the best non recommendation I can give out.


Has always shown high ability, but he doesn't last long and he goes very lame. Off his latest layoff, when he looked very bad last summer, he was given a prep race by Budd before coming back here at a low level. If he does poorly tonight, he will get to try the softest class at London or Flamboro next time. I'd think that is the plan tonight. I can't see him in this competitive for this class field off his current suspect form. Trevor passed him up for a MacIntosh horse even though he has done very well with both Budd and this horse in the past.


Left last time but stayed in then shuffled out a bit, came back on and nabbed 3rd in a very gapped out field. He earns just enough each week picking up small slices that he can't drop to the bottom, where he would be much more dangerous. His 2 for 53 record speaks for itself in terms of where he is likely to finish tonight. Pass.


 Has been off since the fall, when he was knocking heads with Gold colts and some grand circuit types. Upon his return, he gets lasix, gets a new driver in Henry, who also qualified him twice and is doing some steady driving for MacIntosh and gets in this class because they added a nw5 life to the condition. He never looks sound parading, and sometimes in the race, but he seems to go with it. This is such a weak and iffy bunch, he is in with a shot. MacIntosh brings them off the shelf ready, so there is that. Tough call on him as he is tough to figure at this stage.


Drops in class off two decent efforts a class above, and he looks like the one, although he comes with the baggage that he doesn't always produce when you think he will, like many that inhabit this class. The equalizer in this case is post 8. I'd like his chances to get home first a lot better if he had the 5 or 6 hole and could get out near the lead without being used hard to do it. That makes me think something in here takes him down whichever way they decide to race him. 


Was solid last week racing from off the pace, and pretty much resigned to racing for 2nd money, which he did and got. Post 9 gravely hurts his chances, and I'll pass on him with that crutch in place.



​Was claimed Monday and comes right back here on Saturday, off a weak effort and in for a higher tag if he was tagged. He is hard to like, and Puddy and Carmen basically do the same thing, although Carmen tends to do it slightly better overall. Not enough for me to play him, but he is not impossible. Carmen does very well with Bettors Delight and Art Major horses, East End and Major Hill being two recent ones he claimed and stepped up, but his slow starts overall, added to the likelihood the rail makes it an even deeper deficit at the half, I can't see him bridging that gap late at this level. Lets see how he looks on the barn change.


Was off stride before the start last time, although that was not charted. He made a decent recovery, grinded it out and got it done, but he was life and death to hold off Red John, who was daylighted last week by the chalk in this race. He also moves up significantly here. He appears to have lost a couple of steps from the top form he showed at this track a couple of years ago. He is likely a class mover and dropper if he hangs around and doesnlt head back to Quebec for the summer. Pass for me.

  Was laid off after rising up the ranks last fall and doing very well. He probably isnt a Preferred horse at this track, and he would have to face those if he kept racing. He returned a step above this level, did little but took his time down marginally. He picks up McNair here for his loyal owner, but he would have to do more. He has a decent shot if he does. If the price was right, I would think he is worth a flyer. I'd use him in the multi race plays as a viable price spicer.


Comes in off a win, in which he was the longest shot on the board, the track was terrible, and he seemed to benefit from others not liking it. He gets back in to basically the same level, and at times, he shows big talent. At this point, he is clearly a stalker and closer, and he shows 27 and change on every line at the end on the page. My thing with him is he doesn't usually show up week to week. I will pass on him for that reason. These are not as soft as some he beats.


Left well last time, sat a loose pocket on the sharp front ender, who daylighted them and hung in well, but he did try to close the gap in the 3rd quarter and tired as a result. He does his best work when he leaves and then does very little during the middle half of the race but maintain his position. He did move up to this level last time, but he has been good enough at this level before and the chalk here is moving up also this time. He has good upset potential if you aren't sold on the 6.


Had just about everything in his favor last time. A class drop, a very soft bunch to contend with, a switch to Moreau and picking up Roy. He didn't waste any of that as he let the dust settle then moved to the top and said goodbye to the field on the turn, coasting home. These are tougher and wont lie down like most of those did. I see enough contenders in here to think something will take him down if he is challenged earlier and forced to pace on late under pressure. I will go against him completely in anything and go deeper with some other viable chancy type.


 Picked off a soft claiming bunch last time, first time off the claim. That was a solid effort, but most of these wouldn't even be in for that tag.  The suicide fractions he closed into that race favored him and he isn't likely to get that edge here. Bit player in my view.


Comes in with pretty good form and gets to drop a level. He loses Trevor, but picks up JJ, who has done well with him before, and at big odds. This horse knows how to win and his trainer has been hot of late. He is one I would use as a legit long shot with a chance if they mix it up and he is sitting on live cover with a chance to tip late enough to time the wire.



​Has nice tactical leaving speed and he seems to show up every week and race. He has been managed well by his owner/breeder, slash sometimes trainer. As such, he has banked 75k mostly in overnights and he is still early into his 4yo year. In 5 tries with these since winning, he has been hanging around but not able to beat them all. He draws inside again and I would think gets the same trip he has been. He beat all but the winner last time, who he meets again. He has a reasonable shot if things go his way. I will look to others for the win position, as I wouldn't take less than 7-2 on this one, and that is probably what he is going to bring. If I was going to roll the dice against anything in the late pick 4, he is the one I would leave off and take a shot with something else. He finds ways to get beat, like being shuffled back last time, because he needs that soft trip to finish his best. McNair could have pulled him first up, but he chose not to. That gets horses beat.

Seems to be a bit of a late bloomer, as some Bettors Delight's can be. He did win his share last year although he didn't race much, and then stalled this year before being moved from Adams to Galucci, which has proven a very successful move in the past for many of that stables stock. He improved sharply in the first try and only was beaten by a decent horse in Humboldt, and last time drew post 10 and went the trip you expect with most of those. Trevor had a fantastic night last night, and if he can get him the trip he got Musical Spell and find a seam late, he is possible at a decent price. Trevor and Galucci have an ROI of $3.41 together. So so shot type.

  Is the prototype Big Jim type. He has ability, he can leave and go a long way on the front, but sometimes he shows up, sometimes he doesn't. Sometimes he trips out, sometimes he doesn't and caves in. Lance claimed him and improved him 2nd out and has now protected him back in condition races. JJ made the backstretch move to the top last time, but he caved late. If he could leave and somehow get someone to cover him up, he could win this like he did with that type of trip on March 19th. This is not a deep group but mediocre like him. He is 6 for 23 over the last two years. That tells you that when the trip favors him, he wins his share and doesn't get beat on the line, like many in here. Another shot type.


Looked like a pretty nice prospect last year, but he doesnt look nearly as desirable now that the Brealey potion is not in the cabinet on race day. He was dead last all the way last time with most of these as his competition. I have to see something positive from him with these connections now calling the shots to consider him anything more than a rat who was juiced up. Watching for a sign of that.


Took a decent mark at 2 and looked like he might be an okay bottom end stakes horse. But he has done little since and was moved to the new connections in March. Last time, away last, he moved wide with some apparent pace but started to put in steps many times on the turn and coming out of it. He finished even. He has some ability if he can be driven start to finish. I think he might pop for a big price if all can be rectified, but as he was so noticably steppy last time, I want to see him get around clean and be driven to win. I will pass this time. 


Was babied off the gate by Roy last time, and that is something he has needed from time to time. He picked up decent cover and that carried him into a good position mid stretch, but he hung and didn't look right. With Roy winning at the rate he does, and the lines this horse shows on the page, I will take my shot against his likely short price. He appears to be tailing off to me, and he isn't really a durable type as it is.


Has always impressed me as a horse with a lot of upside if he could get his head together. J Mac did an excellent job getting him to that point, as well as his previous trainer, and last time he put it all together as he tipped off cover and blew by them all. He goes to a new trainer tonight but stays with the same ownership. He has won 2 of his last 3 in this class, and he is the likely 6-5 favorite. I like him as an include in the multi race things, but I would go elsewhere for the straight winner.



​Won his 2nd last race at the bottom level condition, beating a decent one in Adversity, who came back to win last week.  Last time, he hit a terrible wet track and ​
it ended up being a field of six, which was actually 4 when the gate sped away and two of them ran. He sat a loose 4th all the way, not under much urging, but was asked on the turn and looked to not be grabbing the track, as the pace also picked up. He was home 4th. This is not a soft bunch for this class, and while I can give him a pass on the last race because of the track and watch him for a better spot, I can't see him for the win tonight.


Has been aimed at the top shelf types since she was a yearling, but while she showed some ability to go with them at times, she earned a decent buck mostly taking smaller shares. She was also prone to running, and she was stopped with last fall. She qualified back okay and then came right off the shelf and won her first start, but, that was against I Jasmin, who rarely wins, and Give Angel Credit, who isn't much stock at all. The back half was only a minute, and she only had to show up with her inherent ability to pass that bunch. These are far tougher as she moves up. Her slower starts will start to cost her when she reaches this level, as they wont be as easy to pass. Wait and see what she shows me. Pass for tonight.

  Doesn't race much, as his breeding would suggest he has a lot of talent, but the lameness issues to go with it. Last time, he was gapping from the get go, and made little advance the entire way. It was like CC sensed he wasn't good to go this night and just got him around. In the process, he held up Mighty Nicky, who stayed on his back too long, hoping he would go forward and carry him. On his good days, he can take this bunch, and we cant ignore that Henriksen is a noted trotting master and can fix whatever it was last time. He is one I'd have to use in the multi race wagers, but he is hard to play for the straight win off that poor showing last time. He is 15 for 19 to hit the ticket the last two years, so he generally doesn't put in many bad ones like last time. If you have room, use him.


Seems to have hit a class wall at this level. Last time, he left out well, was sitting a good 3rd, but gapping and that gap got wider the farther they went. He was simply out trotted. It could be any number of things, but either he is tired from racing steady week after week since last summer, he is just at a level he cant go with, or his late start to his racing career has forced him to meet a higher level earlier than he is ready for. Either way, to me, it adds up to minor shares at this level as long as there are decent contenders, which there are this time.


Looks very tough with this bunch. Something went wrong going to the gate on March 17th, but other than that, he has been solid and impressive. They aimed him at the Hambo at 3 and paid Takter to get him there, and he didn't pan out. But obviously, you don't do that unless you think you have some pretty good stock. He shows winning on March 10th from the rail in 53 and change, beating a tough talented customer in Vero Amore Bi, and other solid ones. Last time he was geared down late and even an all out Mighty Nicky was racing for 2nd. I don't think we have seen his best yet this spring, and he is still heading for top form. I'm not sold on singling him, but he is certainly an overweight in the multi wagers for me, even with him likely going off 3-5.


​ Has always been useful but mediocre, and he continues to be that, with a bit more zip since Henriksen got him gaited right and Moreau got him finishing better. Now he finds himself at a level where that will get him small shares. Last week he caught a short field and it got shorter at the gate, and he simply sat on the front with no challengers and held 2nd while he was wildly outclassed by the winner who toyed with them. It was an okay effort, which is what you get from him most nights. I'd like to see him tagged before I go back to him. Pass for me.


Has proven to be a solid claim for Galucci, and now that he is reunited with J Mac, he is finding his groove. As mentioned above, last time he sat back, as he is usually doing, but he got gapped out by one who was not keeping up. He went around that one, went first up and went after the winner, whom he meets again, but was no match and probably wouldn't have beat him with the trip he had to go to get to that point even if he has the talent to take that one down. We wont know until he gets a better trip and takes a fair shot at him. He has a minor shot if he can find a better and earlier flow. Or maybe he is content to be 2nd until the bearcat in the making wins out and/or moves on and up the ladder. The addition of lasix in the new barn has made him an even more potent closer than he was before, and he was already that anyway. They have upped the lifetime earnings condition to let him in this class, and being short of horses, I'd expect them to do that again next time until he shows he is 2-5 the best. Tough call. I'd be inclined to single the chalk and roll the dice he doesn't pick him off.


 Was struggling with Baillargeon, but came alive and had a very nice run with A Mac. He has tailed off sharply as of late with the switch to McGinnis as head trainer, and whatever the reason, he looks well over his head with these to make the ticket. He will need to be tagged or drop back to the bottom condition again to get me looking at him as a contender.


Took Oceanview Deb from a good post and a pocket trip, but since moving up has not been as potent and has missed 3 weeks. He did have some interference last time, and he has showed some flashes of talent along the way. With the bad post tonight, I will watch to see where he is at if he draws better next time and avoids the logical top 2 in here.

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