How was your night? Mine was pretty good, even though it wasn't.

Note, this blog was intended to be purely a message and lesson blog, but it turned mostly into a story blog when I got going doing that. That is how it goes sometimes. A short blog became long.

C'est la vie. That's just the way it goes sometimes, and no, I'm not going to post the Robbie Nevil song if you think I was leading to that. I'm cutting down on the music links in the blogs, in a mindful way.

A common convo heard in barns and households of trainers and horse players.

"have any luck last night?"

"No, no luck."

"Better luck next time."

Back when I was racing horses I raced a lot at places like Belleville and Sudbury. I hated Belleville, because the money was so bad, the conditions to work were so bad, and the horses and drivers were terrible, but for 2 or 3 drivers. I did like many of the people, as they had more fun than many I raced against. They were part timers and just doing it for fun, and weren't as focused and edgy as many racing people can be. It was 2.5 hours each way, and a long night.
Sudbury was okay. The money was great, my horses fit well there, and I had a decent relationship with 2 or 3 better drivers at that track. I made good money most times I went there. Not every time, but almost all the time. So, I decided to cut Belleville altogether and just go to Sudbury. The problem was I live in Toronto and Sudbury was 5 hours each way. I got to where I was going every Wednesday and Saturday, and it was wearing me down, taking a toll. I did all the jobs, groom, trainer, shipper, and any other job required in my barn. I was my barn. No help. I didn't really mind that, in fact I enjoyed it. I'm a hard worker, and even a tireless one to some extent. As long as its fun and there is a purpose to the activity.  

So, I decided to take 4 horses to Sudbury and stable there for a while, then see how it went. That meant being away from home most of the time, but I could leave the horses for a day or two---on Sunday and Monday, as long as they were racing steady, and just pay someone to take care of them on those days, and go back home. That was a hardship, but it was worth it if I could make a decent amount of money for a couple of months, and hopefully sell the ones that could not race closer to home for decent money. That was the plan. It should have been a good plan, but it was a very bad plan in actual practice.

I had one horse that should have done well at Sudbury, and that was Emersons Paradise. He was a solid 4 or 5 claimer there, and he could race as much as you wanted. He was sound, durable and good gaited. He was very low maintenance for any trainer as long as you knew what to give him health wise to keep his mind and body in top shape. I did know that and it was a very consistent program I had him on. I had 3 others and they earned their way at places like Sudbury, even won on occasion, but they weren't consistent about it like Emerson was. It didn't matter as long as he performed and one of the other 3 did well that week, and they took turns. That is how it should have played out. 

Right away when I got there I knew I was in trouble. I saw that some local guys had bought some horses out of town, and the competition was going to be much tougher than I normally met there. But I was there, and all in as they say, so I just took my chances.

I had 3 in the first night that I was there, and they all should have gotten money, thus I should have made my weekly paycheck I counted on. I got nothing. I had some bad luck with one, another was in too tough because the competition level was upped, the other was no good on her own, and that was a trend she continued until I retired her the next year. She had always done well at Sudbury, but that was when the entire field went 2 seconds slower. Now, they all went two seconds faster than she could go. 2 seconds is 10 lengths in racing. She wasn't going to make money anymore. There was no luck involved in that.

The next racing night, I had 2 in. One had a good post, but he only raced so so and I got a small check. The other got interference at the start, and made nothing. It was only one week, one bad week, but that happens in racing and in life. That was Saturday night. I did the work, put them away and came back home for Sunday and Monday. I already knew which ones I had in to go for the next Wednesday. They were trained up and prepared. Rest was all they needed for those two days.

I had decent posts with decent shots for the two I had in that Wednesday, but both simply were not good enough, and even good or bad luck was not going to matter. I got nothing again. Not only wasn't I making money, it was costing me money. A lot of money. A racing operation, even one where you do all the work yourself costs money. They all eat the same, the stalls cost the same, supplies cost, you have to pay help at times and they are depreciating assets from the time you buy them, which you did with your own capital. If they don't earn, steady, you lose. And they all need new shoes at the end of the month, race good or bad. Most blacksmiths like to be paid on the spot, and that is really the only way to keep them coming. I learned that early in the training game. Not to mention I still had to eat and live, and had a mortgage to pay back home.

I had two more in for the following Saturday, but again one wasn't good enough, the other had bad racing luck, and I got a small cheque between the two of them. I went home again. I decided that I would gradually ship them back, two at a time, and race one more time on the Wednesday since I was there, then ship out. It wasn't working. And it wasn't luck. It was a bad plan and the bad results flowed directly from that. Luck played a part but not a significant one.

I raced the last two on Wednesday, did okay but not good enough, and shipped the last two home. I decided to regroup and not race any of them for a week. I was back home, but Belleville wasn't really a good option, so I had to find a place where they could race and compete that wasn't like taking an entire day road trip. That was wearing me down and I didn't want to do that anymore.

​Ten days after I was back home, I had Emersons Paradise in at Flamboro. Flamboro was tough racing at times, so you had to be spotted right. I thought I was that day with him, but, I was tired and disorganized because of all the commotion of the Sudbury fiasco, and while I was back I began to go to the track every night looking for new horses to buy so I could upgrade my stable, which sorely needed that. That is another job I did, talent scout. I also did the books, and the books weren't looking good.

I grabbed my harness bag and went racing with Emerson. As I said above, he was easy. There were not many things you had to do with him on race night other than warm him up and put his equipment on. Normally, for any horse, every time, I checked my equipment over thoroughly before I left. This time, I did not do that. I paid the price that week for this, and it wasn't luck. It certainly wasn't bad luck.

I always warmed him up free legged, as he was just that good gaited and he didn't need hopples , except for the race. Everything was going well, and we were about 30 minutes to post. I had a good post position and he was very sharp, just as he was at Sudbury. Normally, Flamboro racing was much tougher than Sudbury and they raced for less money. At this point, Sudbury was tougher and Flamboro was the better fit for Emerson. All systems go, or so I thought. I went to put his race equipment on, and when I did, my hopples were not there. If you are not a racing person reading this blog, that is the equipment that keeps a horse like Emerson on the proper gait the entire race. Almost all harness horses who are pacers use them. So, I had effed up, and now I had to find a set to use for the race. Time was not on my side. I could buy them at the tack shop in the paddock but the lady who runs that was away for 10 minutes. That was 10 minutes I didn't have.

Back then, I knew almost everybody that raced at Flamboro, and they still stabled on the grounds. I asked a friend I saw in the paddock if he knew where I could get a set to borrow real fast. He told me of a guy. I asked that guy and he said go to Barn whatever he was in, and take a set out of his tack room. I did that. I had 10 minutes to the race by this point. I didn't check them over to make sure they were in good shape. They were not. When you are experienced, it only takes about 30 seconds to slap a pair on a horse that doesn't give you any trouble. Emerson was the best horse that way. He would let you do anything without any bother or fuss.

He paraded okay, and nothing seemed out of the ordinary. As they approached the start, he was still okay. Then, as they hit the turn, the driver began to pull him up. I had no clue what that could be about. Emerson was sound and had no issues. When the driver got in front of me, I could see the hopple had snapped, because they were frayed in some sections. I would have caught that if I'd had the time to check them. I would have had no problem if I had checked my equipment at home. It was the only time I ever didn't, and only time in hundreds of races I raced where I had broken equipment in a race. Nevertheless, it was not luck. It was entirely my fault. I got no money, again. Sort of.

After the races, obviously I was not a happy camper. My wife came with me that day, which she rarely did when I raced. It was a Saturday afternoon and a nice day. I guess she just wanted to get out and enjoy herself. It didn't turn out to be so enjoyable, but it only got worse.

I was chatting with a guy I knew in the paddock and he asked me how I did? I said the horse broke a hopple. He asked me if he was going to be good anyway, and I said yes, he was going to win or be 2nd. He was a solid contender. Then he asked me if I could ship a horse he just bought that day back to his barn, which was "just down the road 10 minutes" and he would pay me 20 bucks. I said okay, as long as it wasn't too far. It was on my way home anyway, and it was more about the favor than the money. He loaded his horse up beside Emerson, and I followed his car to the barn he was stabled at, which I'd never heard of before. Well, 10 minutes became 30 minutes, and then became an hour. When we finally got there, he could see I was not very pleased, and he thought giving me 50 instead of 20 was going to cool that situation down. It didn't. I bit my tongue, took the 50 and decided I would be more careful about shipping a horse for a guy in the future unless I knew him better, and also that I would make sure I always checked my equipment before a race. I maintained that religiously until I stopped training, and had no equipment issues going forward.

Sunday came, and now my capital in the bank account had been severely drained. There was one week left in the month to fix that situation, or I would have to use the line of credit to pay the bills, something I never wanted to do.

I decided I would race 2 at Belleville the following Friday night, make some money, and then take Emerson to Kawartha the following night in a very soft non winners class that he now fit because of the Sudbury and Flamboro mistakes. You never know how these things will go, because there is always some luck involved.

The two in Belleville seemed logical to win, and since things went my way, they both did. That was a good Friday night to start the weekend. It wasn't great money, even for two firsts, but it was still first money and more than I had made the entire month up to that point.

At least some pressure was off for Saturday night. I had enough to pay the bills, although the overall month was still negative. Emerson was still at the top of his game, he had a decent post and the best driver at that track, who I didn't get to use much because he usually had a better one to take in any race I was in there. He also was a good guy who would listen when you told him things. I told him what Emerson was like, his little quirks in a race, and what he would do if you got him in the right position.

Emerson didn't like to be hit with the whip. You could wave it, you could show it to him, you could speak to him, but you couldn't hit him. He also did not like to be driven hard, unless he had the lead. He wasn't going to get the lead in this race, so he just needed to be floated up into position and then tipped when it was time, and he should just blow by the weak field that was in front of him. 

He drove him perfect and did exactly what I said, and he won easy, going away. As soon as he pulled off his cover on the turn, he slingshotted around the entire field and opened up, going away and coasted to the line a very easy winner.  That was a much bigger paycheck, and I was 3 for 3 on the weekend, and turned a good profit on the month because of it, in spite of the mistakes I made.

People say they would rather be lucky than good, and you hear that all the time when you race horses for a living. I have never subscribed to that theory. I would much rather be good than lucky. Being good will win for you consistently, while a run of good luck wont last.

I didn't do well that weekend because of luck. I didn't do poorly at Sudbury and then back at Flamboro because of luck. I made my own luck, my own bad luck. Only, it wasn't luck, it was just due. Some luck played a part in all the races, both at Sudbury and then Belleville and Kawartha that weekend, but no matter how lucky I might have been in those races, I won all 3 because I trained the horses right, entered them where they could win, and made sure they were driven to win. The direct opposite of what I did in Sudbury.

You know that saying,

"if it wasn't for bad luck, I wouldn't have no luck at all"

Well, as a bettor only now, I know you simply cannot rely on racing luck. You might even have good luck when you make so so or bad plays. 

My mantra is you can't rely on luck. It can be very streaky, and its no way to make a plan and hope for success. Anyway, it evens out and at the end of the day you are no farther ahead. While being really good at something means you will win more than your share, over time and consistently. Good luck might even out the bad periods where even being good doesn't help. But, bad luck plus bad betting or handicapping overall will ruin you when you hit those patches.

Now, what happened last night. I mentioned in an earlier blog this week I am cutting back on the amount of tracks I play. I have determined that is just Woodbine harness and Yonkers. Woodbine I don't usually play on Thursday nights unless I have extra time because its a favorite based card. I thoroughly handicappped Yonkers and when I was done I didn't have time to do up Woodbine. I took a quick look at it, and I could see the favorites looked hard to beat. That I got right and the first 5 races were all short priced favorites. So, I decided to just play Yonkers this night.
I know a bit about Yonkers, have followed it a bit here and there over the years, but I'm not up to speed on it like I am for Woodbine. So, there is still going to be some learning curve to learn the horses and all the participants. Handicapping is still handicapping wherever you go, but the more you know, the more you play, the better you should be, if you have the right skills.
My system is always to vet out the favorites first and see who I think I can beat, then find value in the balance of the field. My mistake ended up being I found value, but didn't stick to playing it.
In race 1 I tried to beat the favorite, who I thought was iffy, and I had two options. One option was a longer shot, and he needed the right trip. He didn't get it. That happens, and that is the luck part. The other option was a very legit contender and he led most of the way, only beaten in the stretch by the favorite. I got one of the two right, bet them both to place, and lost a small amount because the favorite killed the place price on the one I hit with. I played it well, and only lost because I didn't get the favorite part right. I'm okay with that. You wont get them all right when you go against favorites.
Race 2 is where I started to get into trouble. I didn't like the favorite, and it turned out I was right. She was sore and she began to fade on the last turn. But the ones I picked underneath all failed in their own way, while a 29-1 shot won, which would have helped my place price if I had played value, but I didn't. I took 3 of them, one was risky and he broke stride before the start, which was a risk I knew on him going in. The other two were poor finishers as a rule, and they finished 3rd and 4th, beaten late for 2nd by another horse who came up the middle and passed them both late. If I get either of those two horses, its a profitable race. But that would have been lucky. I would have needed good luck for that to happen, and not the bad luck that created the opening that allowed the 2nd place finisher to find room. If either of those horses I took were actually good value, they wouldn't have needed any luck to capitalize on a bad favorite. I should have just left the race. Those horses weren't good value plays, even if I did identify a bad favorite.
Race 3 I played well. I identified a suspect favorite, who is both a hanger and a poor leaver, and he fell right into a trip that would cost him. I had 3 solid value plays against him, and I played all 3. I made a small profit, because one lost 2nd on the line. The other one won the race. It was a good value play, not a great one.
Race 4 I played decently, but the race just didn't go my way, and all my choices either were hard used or hung late. Again, that can happen. I will accept that as part of the overall game.
Race 5 I played well, by not playing at all. I thought the favorite was fairly solid but not a cinch. I didn't like many behind her, and so I just passed the race. The favorite did bomb out, but my choices behind her were overbet and didn't race that great anyway. No value, no play.
Race 6 and 7 I thought the favorites were solid, and they both were, winning fairly easy. I just left those races alone.
Race 8 is the race that makes or breaks the night and its the impetus for starting this blog. I knew the favorite was a bad one, and that he would be raced very hard, likely setting it up for a longshot. I identified who I thought that would be, and I was getting a big price on that one, 43-1. I also liked the horse I thought should be favorite, and that one went off 9-5. I played the 43-1 shot, the race played out exactly as I thought, but I would have needed some good luck to win. The 43-1 shot came flying late, but didn't get room in time and passed the winner right after the line, getting beat less than a nose. The 9-5 shot won the race, by that nose. If I had good luck on this night, I win that race. But here is the lesson I take away.
Its better I didn't have good luck and win that race. Why? Because then I might have ignored the lesson that I didn't stick to the value principle earlier and if I don't do that all the luck in the world is not going to keep me profitable.
Good luck will come and go, as will bad luck. Playing smart and sticking to value is how you make money playing races, and racing horses for that matter. To some extent, its how you succeed in life.
And so, I will close with a line from a Dr. Hook song. It's something horse players learn to do. You just keep hangin in. Better love (luck) next time. 

Sometimes you lose but you're gonna win, if you just, if you just keep hangin in.

How was your night? Mine was pretty good, even though it wasn't. I lost money, but it was better to lose money on this night than to get lucky and make money.

I need to be reminded not to rely on luck in any way. Last night was a bad night, but a good night to remind me to stay on course. Not go running to tracks that aren't going to matter if I play bad, or bring poorly prepared horses to race at. That will never work long term.