Saturday, February 25, 2017

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: February 25, 2017


1 Pop Goes Theweasel despite parking the entire mile from the 10 hole last week she earned 5th money, and that was just enough to put her over the limit and force her to move up in class. She does draw better, and these aren't that tough compared to what she has faced and beaten in the recent past. On her top form, she can gun and finish with these types. Roy is good at getting them off the gate, and that will help her. As seen two back, you can't go too much or she will get picked up. That is the task Roy faces here. She was 3rd twice with these before she dropped. I can see her if the price is right, and that would be about 3-1 or slightly higher.

2 Onyourmarknatava won at the bottom and then doubled up on the next level rise, but was no factor at all at this level last time. I cant see her gaining control here, and that hurts her chances. Pass and watch for now.

3 Barockey
dropped to the bottom last time, blasted out from the 9 hole and wired a very soft bunch. She used her best asset, which is leaving the gate like a bat out of hell. She might try that again here, but two levels up, she will face pressure. She can effect the outcome, but I don't see her winning with some competition this time.

4 Miss Coco Luck Another who earned a good chunk last time and that forces her to move up on earnings. Pass with these. She can hit the bottom of the ticket if a few logical ones fail.

5 Shezarealdeal takes the class drop and is 2nd time lasix. She started out at this circuit at the Preferred level, which is clearly over her head at this stage. Her slow starts are also an issue. She was in the live cover flow last time, but when it mattered, the ones that got money went much more than she could or would. She also bears in enough in the turns that if she is parked, it will cost her. She has 5 lifetime wins, and 4 of those were at 2, when she banked almost 400k. Sometimes the ones that race hard for that don't come back well as 3yo's and aged mares. I will play others. She is a contender, but isn't doing enough for me to think the class drop is the right formula.

6 Ainsleynoelle won two straight on the way back up, and went okay with these last time. She is an option, but I like a few others better.

7 Maplelea is 2 for 30 the last two seasons, and has blown many good chances to win races with much less than she faces here. She was a solid Stakes filly, but she has regressed badly in the last few months. I'd have to see something very positive to see her with this bunch, but she could hit bottom next month and win that if she continues to be just okay with these.


1 Star Photo switches from J Mac to Massey, a downgrade for sure. He was okay last time, just okay, and he meets that one and others who have pretty good form. He was very productive last year, but facing Open foes at the B tracks has muted his progress. I will watch for a better spot.

2 Buzz goes to McNair, first time on the page and second time Carmen off the claim. He was okay last time, and will likely be bet based on the expected improvement and better trip. 8-1 ML seems oddly high, and at a likely 3-1, I will play others. He can beat me, and he might.

3 Rockin With Dewey was sent to Yonkers in search of another softer spot after she won when she was thrown a bone by the race office. She bombed out there, and came back here and didn't do enough last time. She is the type that wins a race and hits no mans land until she finds the right class. Pass for me.

5 Damfoolrmillionair stayed in last time, and was bearing in badly into the first turn. He took the lucky inside journey and found room to pass a very soft bunch. He has simply not returned to the form he showed as a promising half brother to San Pail when he was younger. He probably will turn around at some stage. I will pass on him here.

6 Eldorado of Gold S mowed them down first off the claim for Moreau last time from the 10 hole. Henry sticks with him, and he is possible, but on the move up in class, I like others better. He could hit the bottom of the ticket, and possibly do better if the top rung all dont show up.

7 Meadowbranch Memo is generally a very slow leaver, and last time that resulted in a move up the pylons as others pulled. When room materialized, he weaved and was coming hard to just miss the win. Trevor jumps off to go to Moreau's, so JJ takes over. He is subject to traffic issues and thus, I will pass on him tonight. He is possible, but more likely to lose than win.

8 Finish Line got away okay last time, but then had to sit to just about the 3/4 waiting for room, and then had two pull right when he did, so he came 3 high on the turn, and the winner was long gone. To his credit, he chased willingly and gained, to be a clear 2nd. He is solid at this level and looks tough to beat, but being its post 8, I'd want a price to take him on. Somewhere between 7-2 and 4-1 seems right.


1 Daylight Rush comes back after bravening up on London competition. He will meet a fairly stiff bunch here, and while he was very sharp in late fall, he looks in a bit deep at this level currently. Longshot potential, but I will pass on him and take my chances with others.

2 Dialamara    took the big class jump to this level last time, got away mid pack, bided his time and closed well to finish in a blanket finish for the top 3 positions. He has certainly righted the ship and is beginning to show the ability he flashed early at 2 but never came back to. The leave hard approach has been replaced and it seems to suit him to come from behind. He is a player here, but obviously no cinch.

3 The Wayfaring Man is possible, but he has normally just not done enough at this higher level to pass the real contenders. I like too many others to play him in this spot.

4 Resistance Futile  has worked his way up the ladder and of course he has the talent to go with these, but does he still have what it takes? We shall see. I could see him if the trip worked out and others battle.

5 Mach on the Beach has missed 3 weeks, and switches Fillion to Roy for his return. I will pass based on his suspect form at this level. He is likely a drop and pop candidate if he gets no money tonight.

6 P L Jackson has developed gradually over the winter, and last time he came from out of it to just miss. He did want to leave, but wisely Cullen see sawed him to the back of the bus, then moved up the pylons the entire way, following the winner but not quite passing him. He can stay in this class for a long time based on the lifetime earnings condition, and he fits well. It is fairly soft tonight relative to what you might find the odd time with classy droppers not showing up this time. He is another player among many. He rarely misses the ticket, and that is part of his overall consistency. At some point, he looks like a Preferred horse. He does need to develop a bigger second move, and that would mean also working for it a bit more. He seems to be heading toward that goal.

7 Bringhome Theblue has to move up without winning, as he bagged 2 consecutive 2nd place cheques at that level. McNair chose Blake's, so Drury will handle him. I like others. He is a better fit down at least to the level he raced last time.

9 Champagne Phil is up against it at this level at this track and from this post. Not tonight for me.


1 Single White Sock moves up without winning, but is not out of it with this mixed bunch who aren't that much better than him currently. I'd use him in the picks if you have room.

2 Darcee N is a very slow starter, a low percentage winner who has not done so in a while, but capable enough that he will at some point on the right night. Because he earns pieces just about every time he shows up, he doesn't get to drop down to the bottom, where he could be very dangerous. He was in a live cover flow last time, but gapping it noticably under heavy urging, and ended up burning the chalk players. He doesn't do enough to make me back him at this level at a short or shorter price. I will play against him.

3 Lonesome Attack was 2nd last week a step lower to a very live one who doubled up a few days later with authority. In his younger days, he was viable with these. He missed all of last year, and still has not won on his return. Pass for me.

4 Er Zach Attack ships in from Miami Valley, and retains Massey. His form stacks up here, and being that he had the 9 hole last time, which is the far outside and not the trailer, he has a license to be a player here. Another to use in a race where you need many to progress to another leg on the horizontals. He was 2nd twice at this level when he was here earlier in the winter.

5 Casimir Overdrive won at the bottom as the chalk by wiring them, but he generally doesn't get or go that trip, and needs to work for it. He will hang the last turn, but when they straighten up, he keeps coming, as he did last time. He stayed in last time, at this level, but the opening never came and he couldn't go all out to the wire. He is a player, but beatable based on his flaws.

6 Ufdragons Rocket seems to need to go to the B's these days to get his wins. He looks overmatched to me with this bunch.

7 Perfect Vista won at the bottom, but was no factor with these last time, coming late but not picking up a cheque. He is one I would leave off the tickets and roll the dice.

8 Code Word ships in with 40 lifetime wins, more than a million in the bank, a new trainer but a tougher post. I can see him being overbet here on the Allard/Roy angle. I will go to others and leave him off. Its a risky play with an unknown like this.

9 Late Night draws another bad post, and his slow starts mean he has a long way to come and would need suicidal fractions in front of him. I can't see how he gets his picture taken in this spot.


1 Nirvana Seelster avoids the Preferred foes tonight, but while he can go with those, and has, and has bossed these around for stretches, he has had his troubles lately even with these, who aren't slouches. I will take a wait and see approach here. Based on how poor he looked for a while, I want to see him put two back to back.

2 Velocity Driven looks overmatched with some of these for the win, but he could make the bottom of the tri or super. He would need a few to get hard trips and come back to him late.

3 Vegas Rocks is possible if my top choice somehow bounces. Otherwise, like most in here, he is looking to get a trip and take the biggest chunk that isn't the win cheque. He is sharp, and when he is, he has to be respected. Post position favors him here with the way he can leave.

4 Mach Pride went a long way on the front last time for McNair and didn't give it up until very late. Drury is back on, but this horse is pretty simple to drive. He will go as far as he can if you don't use him too much early. He needs to leave just enough to get that type of trip. He is possible if he can beat others to the 2 hole and save some for late.

5 Brilliant Strike N was prepped expertly by O'sullivan to make his N. American debut. He was ready to go 1:50 and he did, but he was raced easy and from the back, then picked up excessive cover and that cost him a shot to get 2nd or 3rd, which he didn't miss by much. He is very eager and willing and looks to have speed to burn. Fillion chooses him over Moreau's one, and he should handle this bunch at a short price tonight. The only caveat is that he has never raced at this level week to week, and being a Shadow Play, watch his soundness parading. If he is good to go, he looks very tough to beat.

6 Company Man was hard used for the lead last time and didn't have the finish he needed. Fillion takes the one that you would expect him to, so Roy picks up the leftover. He is not out of this, but this is a pretty tough bunch. Your call. I will leave him off, as the likely chalk just looks too tough for these, him included.

7 J Eagle Feather looks way over his head with these. Total pass.

8 Shadow Margeaux moves up off a solid win where he shot the rail and that was enough. These are tougher, the post is not favorable, and there are many leavers who will beat him to the trip many want in here.

9 The Rev will be severely comprised by post here, and he isn't the type that mows them down at this level. He is damned if he leaves, damned if he takes back here. Pass tonight.

10 Mach Code has drawn well for a long time, and tonight gets the short straw. Pass. I would think he takes back and hopes for a lot of battling to pick up 4th or 5th late.

Tough bunch and I will pass and just watch them. I'd advise taking at least 5 in the pick 4 if you want to play this race that way.


1 Blue Fox moves up a notch off a decent win and keeps Henry. At best he looks like he will need to adapt for this level.
2 Bugatti doesn't look like he can go with this bunch when they turn for home. I can't see him getting any money.

3 A Bettors Risk found a weakening bunch to his liking last time and took advantage of it. He has had a very suspect gait in the past, and this move up puts more pressure on him now. I will watch to see how he handles that.

4 East End  came home well in a 10 claimer last time in his first try with Budd, who has been known in the past to figure out one like this. If there is an upset on this card, he could be the one. They protect him here, and that is a positive. This class came up light here, so, he is usable.

5 Podge won this class once, but seems to be going the wrong way as the weeks progress. I will go to others.

6 Keystone Keen  was claimed in a cheap claimer at Pocono at the end of that meet, and raced sparingly since. This is a stiff test for him. He would really have to turn the form around to even make the ticket. As he likes control and seems to do his best with it, I don't see him winning but he will effect others who might try to fight him for it.

7 Hughgetthecredit  is another who has lost the sharp form he had in early winter when he appears to have gotten sick. He is at a level where he can get money, but has to do more. He is possible, but I will pass on him here and play for a better longshot.

8 Big Yellow
blasted out from the 9 hole last time and took a big win. However, he isn't always so sharp and he doesn't always show up. He is likely to take big play on the attempt to double up. I will pass on him and play for the bigger price.

9 Rough Trade is an odd entry and looks completely overmatched with almost all of these. Post 9 gives him very little chance to luck into a trip even if he was viable, which is very debatable.

10 Whatashowinontario won the condition bottom and now comes back to these. No thanks even if he had drawn better, which he did not.

Another race I will pass on. I don't like anything in this race and I also could not toss anything. I'm not a fan of using an "all" but this is close to that type of spot.


2 J Js Delivery picks up shares with these, and isn't impossible if the 7 is horrid again and the 5 has an off night, which he does every now and then. He stacks up with the rest, and I'd consider him a solid add onto the late pick 4. He will need them to not perform, but that isn't out of the question.

3 Fine Diamond doesn't do enough from what I see to think he wins this class very often. He did once, but most times they outpace him in the stretch, as they did last time. Pass.

4 Alexas Jackpot took Nickle Bag a long way last time, and as he can leave very fast and then get a decent trip, he is possible if that trip happens here. Another longer shot to add to the ticket.

5 Nickle Bag is what he is. He will settle, pull, bear in, hang, and then just keep coming to the wire. He looks beat, but he doesn't get beat. I think his turn was last week, and while I respect what he brings to the table each time he does, I will pass on him and think its somebody else who gets the prize this time. Its very hard to win back to back in this class when its this deep.

6 Shadow Place habitually has trouble at this level, although his times stack up well. I will pass on him.

7 American Virgin
made a break last time and was running oddly, like he caught a boot or something like that. He was pretty good for a long time, but also horrid for a while before that. He will have to be seen. I'm inclined to think he is competitive, but beaten tonight.


1 Koultons Rocket is more of a fringe player at this level, and I will list him as such. He doesn't do enough to beat these.

2 Bugger Bruiser had every chance last time, but was nosed out. He moves up and loses McNair, and that is two strikes against him. He is not impossible if the trip falls into his lap. Otherwise, he finds ways to lose races at this level.

3 Par Intended comes in off a fresh claim, and will have to be seen. He looks to be in tough with this group.

4 Rise Up Now is McNair's choice over several in here, but that isn't enough for me. His recent history is that he doesn't get it done at the A track anymore, and he isn't at the absolute bottom either. He will have to prove me wrong.

5 Asap Hanover picks up Fillion as JJ opts for the 10. He takes a stiff class drop, and that will help his cause. I could see him if he gets out near the top and gets some kind of a breather. One of a few who will need things to go his way.

6 Lonewolf Currier goes back into a claimer after conditioned types ground him down. He is possible with McMillan fine tuning him as he does with many, but I like others. His gate speed likely means he will take on any comers who want to try and leave with him and get the top.

7 Paparazzi Hanover takes a big class drop, but he was big odds his last 3. I don't think the drop is enough to make me jump on board. Pass. He will likely take big tote support on that drop.

8 Erle Dale N  picks up Roy here, but his form is suspect and the post wont help. I will pass, but he is dangerous on the connections he brings to the dance.

9 Smalltown Terror  has won two in a row, but meets a stiffer bunch here and gets the tough post. I will pass on him.

10 Spider Man Hanover blasted out from the 10 hole last time,  but was all done after the half, as something went wrong. He qualified right back on 5 days, but draws another 10 hole. I would think the plan is to race him easy and have him finish well, and wait for another day. He is one to keep an eye on, as he was a topnotch 2yo with a bright future then

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