When Dave Schwartz first interviewed me for his podcast, he asked me what he asks all his interview subjects. Are you a winning player?
I answered yes, but with a caveat.
Yes, overall, I am a winning player, and I laid out the reasons I think that is the case in the rest of the podcast, and in the 2nd one we did. But, the caveat was and still is, that I only win as long as I do the things I know I should do and that work. As soon as I deviate from that, I begin to lose. In many ways, that is different from many or the average player out there. They do what they think works, but it just doesn't. For me, what works works and all I really have to do is do those things and continue to generate newer and better ways to stay ahead of the pack, and then add those things and do them in addition to what already works.
But like most people, and horseplayers, I have weaknesses. My worst one is that sometimes I think I can get away with not doing what I do---and do best, and just make bets because they look good at a glance. What I do best is watch replays, study horses for weaknesses and fatal flaws, assess odds to determine value, gather data and figure out probabilities. When I do all those things, overall, I win a lot more than I lose. So, why do I make the "stupid bets" the "bets I want to take back" the "bets I regret immediately and after the fact".
Why do I do that?
Like many, I can be impulsive and lack some level of discipline. Over time, I've figured out that it boils down to just those two things. In every instance, I let up, fell back into the old bad habits that forced me to become a better player in the first place, and thought I could just "get away with it"....which I know, and you know, and we all know, you can't. It just doesn't work that way.
As I've transitioned into playing and watching only Thoroughbreds, which is completely a new thing for me (I will get into why that is in another blog down the road) I've been very mindful that its even more important not to make impulsive or badly disciplined bets that I know better than to make. So, since its been about 2 months now, and I've played slowly, carefully, and sparingly, and in relatively small amounts for what I normally do and will again, I was progressing well until a day about 3 weeks ago.
Note that under the blue line, its just story to illustrate my main points in this blog, but you don't have to read that if you aren't interested in the story. You can skip over that part if you wish.
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It was a Tuesday. That much I remember. I had been doing well, getting almost all of them right, but with small 2 dollar bets, which is how I play when I'm "testing" something new. I know you need to play with real money even in the testing phase, to keep it real, but I don't want to lose too much in the process of sharpening up what I think I've learned and/or finding holes that I know will be there before I move back up to much bigger sums. Tuesday is a day that I wouldn't play much or at all with the T breds, as the tracks I follow....Gulfstream, Laurel, NYRA, and Charlestown don't run that day. I think Mountaineer might have been running that night and I will play that track occasionally, I don't recall, but during the day, on Monday and Tuesdays, I use those days as prep for the days towards the weekend when all those tracks run at the same time. That is just too much work and prep to do all at once, so I spread the work out for those on the off days that are Monday and Tuesday for me, and partly on Wednesday, as there is no Laurel or Aqueduct on those days.
On this afternoon, I was left with playing PARX and Mahoning Valley if I wanted to do more testing. I did. I didn't end up making any Mahoning bets, so it came down to PARX, which I really don't like playing for various reasons that I might touch on with another blog. Mainly, the morning line (ML) there is horrendous, the purses are grossly overinflated, and the cheating among trainers is over the top, even for an industry that has some of that at every track. In that respect though, PARX is the Al Capone of tracks compared to most which are the low level, street punk mafia types. But, I still wanted to test and make some plays, so PARX it was.
I was out doing some errands, so I missed race 1. Race 2 was a small field which became much smaller. It started out as 7, then there were two scratches, who were 2 of the lower priced ML horses. That left 5 of them, of which 2 looked to have zero chance. That left 3 to choose from. I didn't like Miss Al Dila at all, who was the 2nd ML choice. She went off at a clear 3rd choice but was no good as I expected in the race.
I watched the replay of the heavy favorite, Sheplaysthefield, who was dropping from NYRA into a soft spot at PARX, and she had okay form, although I didn't like how she ran and finished in her last start, which was now 10 weeks ago. Her trainer, Chris Englehart, a very high percentage guy, likes to use this angle, so, I expect that he will do it and I am mindful he can make it work at times. Still, I didn't like how she raced the time before, so, I would need odds to play her. She was likely to go off even money, which was her ML anyway, but early on, she was in the 1-5 range, and only drifted up towards the end of the cycle. The only other horse that looked viable to me was Queen Fantabulous, and in reality, she was the correct play if there was one in this race. She was 6-1 ML, but with one of the scratches being a lower ML than her, and the 2nd ML being a bad rating, I knew she was likely going to be in the 5-2 or 3-1 range. She had reasonable form and a legit shot, although the favorite clearly outclassed her on the program with recent efforts. I had these two horses to choose from if I was going to make the win bet. The rest didn't seem viable or playable.
My normal discipline tells me to layoff a race like this. I don't like playing short priced faves who have iffy variables, and I don't play my 2nd choice unless I get my value price. Queen Fantabulous was in the 2-1 range, and that was too low. So, the right thing to do, was to make no play. The wrong thing to do, which is what I did, was bet the fave to win. She drifted up to even money, and that was okay value. I played her. As expected, from the get go, Sheplaysthefield ran poorly, was never involved or contentious, and even missed the board. On top of that, even money became 1-2 at the bell, and she was horrendous value. Queen Fantabulous won easy, and paid $6.70.
Clearly, a bad discipline play on my part, even though I had done my homework and wasn't impulsive.
Next.
Race 3 was a field of 8, but scratched down to 6, with an entry that made it 5 betting interests. Maiden claiming 2yo fillies, the toughest of the toughest to handicap as a rule. Especially at PARX. Nevertheless, I did the work, to see what shakes out. The longest shot I watched run at Belmont. My comment on her was..."never had any run" and I didn't see a drop to PARX as going to make any difference. Even at Charlestown, she might be 99-1. Nuff said. Toss.
One of the scratches was the ML even money fave. So, the rest that are left were actually much longer shots relative to the entry when you remove the scratched fave. I looked at two others, and they looked, at best, to be hoping to beat half the entry for 3rd money. At best. That left the 6, Family Fortune, who had okay form on paper, but looked very suspect running her last race and in the post parade. I could see her being last, which she ended up close to being.
That left the entry. Neither were spectacular, or even impressive, but they both had legit excuses and looked okay. I could see them running 1-2, but if not, 1-3 and one of them was going to pull through. However, the win price was 1-5, and could have ended up 1-9. No thanks for me on that front. At PARX, even in a 6 horse field with an entry, they will leave up show betting. The bridgejumpers jumped in, as you would expect, even though some of them got burned in the previous race, as I mentioned above when Sheplaysthefield missed the ticket. As they left the gate, the entry had 80 percent of the show pool, you got 2 for the price of one, they had a high percentage trainer and solid jockeys, and both had better form than the entire balance of the mediocre field. So, I wanted to get my $2 back with this bet, and I played $50 to show on the entry. I think it was a valid bet in terms of weighting with my $2 bets otherwise.
The entry ran 1-3, with the winner an eased up 3 length winner, and the 3rd place horse 22 lengths in front of the 4th horse. It was never in doubt. It was about as good a percentage play as you can find. I don't play on the bridgejumper side often, but there are times when its a good play, and this was one of those.
Before I move to the last example of that day, lets look at what I've done. I made a bad discipline play on Race 2, and lost $2. I made a very good, high percentage, well researched and thought out play in Race 3, and made $2.50. An overall return of 12 percent profit on the two bets. But, it should have a net profit of $2.50 and not .50, because I hurt myself by making a bad discipline bet in Race 2. That is the valuable part of all of it. Not the money. The lesson. Don't hurt yourself. There are enough ways to lose on your own without doing that.
I had a few things to do, so I skipped races 4 and 5, as they didn't look like races where I wanted to make a call at this point in my development. The night before, I had looked over the entire PARX card, at a quick glance of each race, which is always what I do when I prep, in terms of thinking of where I want to end up putting my energy. I noticed race 6 right away, as it seemed like a horseman's freebie. For those who don't know what that is, for whatever reason, they sometimes write races where a very successful and dominant horse can actually drop severely in class without going in for a claiming tag, and take a stroll around the track for 1st money. On paper, this looked like a race like that. The horse in question is called Ruby Bleu, a 3yo gelding who had just won a 47k purse at PARX 7 days earlier, and had won today's condition, a 32k starter allowance about a month before.
He also was a very high percentage winner, and top 3 finisher. On paper, he looked bulletproof with this bunch. However, paper doesn't win races, horses who can reproduce their form...and thus, performance, win races. I thought originally he would be 1-9 when I breezed over the race the night before, and thus, I didn't even bother to handicap the race, or even watch Ruby Bleu's replays. That would come back to bite me, as when I came back inside and the race was 0 mtp, he was 3-5 instead of 1-9, and looked like a good play. But how would I really know that, unless I verified that the horse on the program was the horse that was running this day? I wouldn't. I didn't watch him in the walking ring, or post parade, or even race last time or the time before. He could be a 3 legged cripple, or very sore, or tired, or a bad actor. As it turns out, he never ran a step, and was running in horrible the entire way, and was well up the track. On the impulse of seeing his price and thinking he was good value, I made a quick decision to bet him in spite of not doing the work, doing what I need to do to win, as I mentioned to Dave in the podcast. So, my small profit on the first 2 bets was now a loss.
If I had a do over, I skip the first bet, make the second one, and then do my homework and either skip the 3rd one or play something else that was of value in that race. I lost because I didn't do what I was supposed to do to win.
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Its now over 3 weeks later. I don't make New Years Resolutions, but I am making one this year.
No impulsive or bad discipline bets of any kind.
How do I plan to live up to that resolution?
By being resolute, and by having a simple 5 second strategy of a few questions I ask myself before I confirm any bet I make. Those are:
"Is this a stupid bet"
"If I make this bet, will I want to take it back after the fact"
"will I regret this bet, win or lose".
"will I regret not making this bet, win or lose".
"have I done the work I need to do to make this bet with confidence"
"have I used my skill set to the best of my ability to determine value"
These are questions you should ask yourself every time you make a bet if you are a serious player with the intention of winning, not just playing.
A resolution should be something where you can control the outcome. I can fully control whether or not I make disciplined and impulsive bets.
The thing about resolutions is that you need to be resolute. Or don't make them. Or make them but know you will fail because you really aren't resolute.
Resolutions aren't wishes. They are promises you make to yourself based on realistic goals and determined behaviors you deem necessary for you to succeed at whatever you choose to try and succeed at.
Will I slip up once or twice? Maybe. Once or twice over an entire year when I make 10,000 bets is okay, as they are not going to effect my overall results in any way. But slipping up on say 1 out of 5 bets on average is the difference between profit and loss. I don't aim to lose, so, I can't slip up at the rate I have been over the years. That is one of the things I figured out when I realized why I used to lose when I should have been winning.
I will have that voice in my head, over my shoulder, that should be there, to guide me and mentor me. If it's there, I will tow the line and stick to the resolution.
I'm not big on having regrets. As a rule, regret is a negative thing to have, and its backward looking.
Regret is usually a bad thing, especially if its a regret from a past mistake. But, regret can be a good thing if you use it as a guide towards your future, and what hasn't happened yet. Like a resolution, you can control your intentions to avoid future regret. As a motivator and guide to think about your current actions in terms how you will likely view them after the fact, win or lose.
To be a winning player, you have to have your personal variables in line. Even the smartest, experienced and talented players are very capable of shooting themselves in the head with bad bets that they regret making because they weren't resolute in doing what they do best. I am one of those. I hope at years end to say I was one of those. If so, I can possibly move on to a new resolution, like solving world peace. We shall see.
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