It was an insightful post, and I like that Chuck knows he doesn't know enough on his own and avails himself of the help that is there in my group. That includes myself, my friend Garnet Barnsdale, who is a paid handicapper, and a host of others, including seasoned players and professional trainers.
Right off the bat, I knew what Chuck was thinking, because many would think it, and its the common perception that most will have...if...they don't know horses, and they don't know the people who participate in the racing of horses.
So, I made a comment, which you will see in the above screen cap, and then I wrote a status, which I will post below that.
"Since Chuck brought it up, I'm going to take the time to make a handicapping point.
In another group Chuck and I are in (and some others in this group), a guy made a post about speed horses in the T breds. His theory was that front end speed would win the majority of races, and to play them that way. In the race he mentioned, he thought that would be the case, but while it was, he wasn't on the winner, a 14-1 shot, because he didn't show any gate speed on his recent lines.
When Chris Christoforou was in this group, someone mentioned that a certain driver can "make speed" with horses. Chris mentioned that any driver can make any horse leave if they really want to. That is just something you know if you train horses, and drive them. If a horse can close in 27, he can leave in 27. Cool Rock showed that last week when he wired the field, when he is noted by the talking heads as a "stone cold closer" which is really just bullshit.
Back in the day, a horse called Shady Hill Pride was a WEG warrior for many years. He was so noted as a lay back, then monster closer, that Earl Lennox would call him coming wide on the last turn every time, as he was "winding up"...and coming from "the end east parking lot"..which Greenwood had but most didn't want to park in that lot, as it was far from where you sat to watch the races. One day, Harold Stead was driving the horse. I don't think he was the regular driver, and that day, for whatever reason, he blasted off the wings, opened up daylight, and maintained it. After that day, the horse was on the front end a lot, and won some, lost some. When he was older, he was a crazy front end kamikaze that could open up 20 on a field of 2 claimers at Hanover or Orangeville. Sometimes he held on, other times he caved. He had enough ability edge on those fields to attempt that. We have seen Stature Seelster try that at WEG, and it doesn't work. At Flamboro, it can work for him, but still, he can get picked up like he did last time.
I had a mare I claimed called Mac Ms R Nukes. She had one monster brush, the No Nukes brush many have seen if they watch his old races. She was by a son of No Nukes, out of a Sonsam mare, another horse with a crazy brush. She was racing off the pace every week, and winning. She had low lifetime earnings, so, I claimed her, and put her in low earning conditions for a big purse at London. Those were the times when the money was really flowing.
I got her home, and she was very quiet and lazy. Two fingers to jog as they say.
So, after a day or two, I turned her and rattled her cage. I woke her up.
I put her in at London, and got the rail. I thought I was a cinch winner. She was so hyped up, she was hard to get off the trailer. Anyway, she blasted out and daylighted the field most of the way, only to get beat by some WEG class dropper Mark Etsell had. Still, 2nd money was good money. I put her back in that class, she drew the rail again, and pulled the same stunt. She got 2nd again, then regressed. She was not really a good horse to put on the front, as she wouldn't rate once you started doing that. That is why many don't do it. You end up with a Stature Seelster once you let them get that way.
But make no mistake, just about any horse can be that type, if you want to race them that way. Don't get sucked into a program page that makes you think one horse will be the only speed. When other drivers see that, they think this is the night to leave and take a shot."
Further, I made a comment about which horse I thought would do something that most would not expect, and as it played out, that horse did exactly that. What was that?
In a race with apparent lone speed, with the favorite having that speed, a horse who shows flashes of that sort of thing, would be gassed out of there to go with her, and try to take advantage of that.
My point to Chuck, and others, was that most horses can leave, even if they don't show that very often, or even at all. It's there if you want to ask them to do it. There is a reason mostly why you don't, but that doesn't mean there isn't a reason on that day to try it.
Now, say you were a jockey. You can read the program just like the bettors can. Everyone thinks the fave is the lone speed, you know your horse can also go if asked, and possibly most of the others are going to take back. This is your chance to get out, sit on that one's back, stay close, suck along, and then take your shot at the end of the race. That is what jockeys do, and what the good ones are paid to do. That is...figure out how to win races and make calls that win races that most times the horse should lose.
Think about that the next time you think there is a lone speed horse, and nobody will go with that one. Likely, something that doesn't show gate speed will take a shot. And you will get long odds, because nobody is figuring that one will.
That is how value plays are created.
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