1 Expose Yourself
d
id
some
winning in the winter at Pompano, where Henry spends the winter. She
came back home with aspirations to tackle the better ones. She is
definitely a live wire parading and going to the gate, so anything that
can help her when she gets rocky might help. The first time she made the
gate and was away well, but she seemed to be in way too tough, and
chasing the likes of Magic Presto and some of the lesser ones behind her
were too much for her. She blew up before she got started both times
after that, and went back to school with the trotting hopples, which
kept her together enough to blast out a 57.3 mile at Grand River. That
can't be discounted, but, the rail is very bad again at Mohawk, it
claimed Hill Yes last night, and there have been no winners the last two
cards. I find her hard to latch onto with all the variables in play.
2 Late Shift
h
ad
post 10 last time, blasted out to an easy lead as there were many
jumpers who weren't in the road, but in spite of reasonable fractions
from there, packed it in when it mattered. She did the same thing from
the 6 hole the race before that, although the back half and overall time
were much faster. It could be that she is a 58 trotter at this stage
and that will only get her what it does. I'd have to think that isn't
good enough to take down this entire bunch. She is an 0 for 12 maiden
facing a few winners here. If her 5-2 ML top choice holds, I'd think she
is very bad value.
3 Hab Faith
is pretty much in the same boat as Late Shift. She has enough gate
speed to get up into contention, but when they start asking her for
more, she wilts.
Like
many, her good manners, solid gait and early speed served her well at
2, but its not enough to carry her at 3, when the fields are deeper and
faster as a rule. I can't see her on her current performance.
4 Sweet Kimmy
look to have been a project horse for Burgess since he broke her.
She managed to pull it together and surfaced finally on Friday at Grand
River, where she was a distant 2nd to a very high end prospect who
toyed with and outclassed the field. She was a good 2nd to him. She is a
longshot for sure, but appears to have some upside as she learns her
craft. I like that she at least makes the gate and gets away clean most
times. Last time she stayed at it the entire way, and under pressure
first up. Outside of an equipment break in a qualifier, she has kept it
together the entire way this season. She now needs to do that and go
faster. 2:01 over Grand River is in range with most of these if she
makes the 3 second gain you can from that oval to this one. Blair turns
her over to Saftic, which is another positive sign. Shot.
5 Muscle Lane
raced
at 2, but she wasn't much and clearly wasn't ready to compete. She has
come back ready to play, trying to go down the road in her first start
at Kawartha, and only being picked off on the wire. She is possible, but
she will have to leave faster to get control with a few that are both
inside and outside of her. I want to see her once with this level of
competition. She could slide onto the ticket if enough of them blow up, she behaves and drops another second or two. Kawartha is a very fast
track, so that might not happen like it can with the ones coming from
Grand River or other half mile tracks.
6 Northern Oath
raced decently at 2, finishing 3rd to Cameron Hill, and drawing two 10
holes prior to that, and a solid 4th in the start before that, all
starts where she was just below or at 2 minutes.
She
qualified good upon return, in 58 at Georgian, then made a break
leaving last time, but recovered. I'd have to think they don't pay 350
bucks to race in this spot unless its something they can rectify, when
she could go right back into a maiden and bag 3k without paying up to
try and get it. Good upset potential, Steve Byron brings in a lot of
longshots and is a very fine driver with young stock.
7 Literally
won
a Grassroots last year when she first came out, then was 2nd and 3rd in
two Golds, before tailing off and being shut down. She qualified a 2nd
time, over a month ago, and then came up sick for her first start. That
is hard to go on, and her consistent weak last quarters make her tough
to go to. Lets see her return to the promise she showed early last year.
Being a Justice Hall, she is likely to be very erratic. Good longshot
prospect some time this summer when the variables come together.
8 Angies Dish
s
hows
nothing to suggest she is viable in this spot, or any other spot for
that matter. I have to see something positive from her. Zeron's stock
has mostly been awful this late spring and early summer. Pass for now.
9 Twin B Venus
draws
poorly, is yet to show the speed of most of these, and I would think is
hoping to pick up a decent cheque. A return to Grand River and that
type of class seems the better spot.
She still fits the class she got 2nd in last time. She has enough
allowance to take 4th or 5th here, get her speed down a bit, and return
there for a few scores.
10 Hudsons Ya Ya
draws poorly and her two starts this season have not been impressive. I can't see how she wins this.
RACE 3
1 Gisele Treelane
m
ust have showed high ability all along, as she really looked hopeless in all her preps. She finally held it together, then
found
the perfect soft field composed of no talents and runners to simply one
move late and mow them all down with a 57 flat back half. She blew up
again last time, but she is a young trotter learning. She could be
either tonight, but the ability looks to be there. I'd like to see her
parade before I make any play on her, but if you are playing the pick 5,
I'd consider her a must use. Post 1 could be tricky for her, but if she
gets away clean and doesn't spot them 15 to the half, she is in play.
2 Powerful Mission
shows very high speed at times, and can beat a tough enough bunch when
she keeps it together. Her breeding suggests she wont very often, but on
any given night, she is one or the other.
She
was rolling wide last time when she blew up, and I'd think Phil will
try to avoid that trip and stay in as long as possible, aiming to split
horses or swing out when they are going straight. Shot, but iffy as the
page and her lines suggest.
3 Moni Justice
seems to be like most of the young ones Dagfin brings out....she has
ability, he doesn't let much of it show early as he keeps them within
themselves and gradually ups the ante as they show they could possibly
be ready for that demand. Off a qualifier and a decent race at Georgian
where she trotted in 2 minutes and took 2nd, I could see her as a decent
add. There are enough iffy ones in here to suggest they could just self
destruct while she takes her time down to 57, and that might be enough.
Tough call when you don't have a lot to go on except the trainers
history. Her slow starts put her in a hole, and these are likely to be
even faster to the half. That is a negative first time out with this
sort of company.
4 Magic Maddy
looks
like the bit player type for now. I suppose eventually she could mature
and come into herself, like many do. At this stage, not winning on the
Kawartha soft spot, and only getting 3rd to a very weak bunch last week
don't inspire me to think she can do much more, and many of these do
have that upside.
5 You Cant Afford Me
was a solid 2nd in nw3 last time, and that coupled with her overall
time, likely makes her the favorite here. I'm not sold that she is
worthy of that, based on 1 good race and being 2nd to a mare who went
winless for 2 years, then didn't have much last night either. I will go
elsewhere and let her beat me. She is not proven as a winner against
stakes types. Her high level of inbreeding also suggest consistency can
be an issue. She hasn't proved yet that isn't in play.
6 Hilarious Honey
has been all over the racing map, Georgian, Philadelphia, The Big M,
Pocono, and not got the job done yet. However, this type, in this type
of class, over time, in my view, can be very dangerous. Nobody gets an
accurate read on them, and they move them around because they feel the
horse is worthy of all that effort. Philly and Pocono race every week,
many times a week. You could just leave her there and race maidens for
free. Why ship here again and pay up to race? I'm suspicious that she
might bring more to the table than they have showed us. Yes, she is a
maiden, and she has had 10 tries to change that status. But she also has
6 OTB finishes, and some money made. The other note of interest is that
Philly is well known to those that watch it as being a trap along the
rail to start from for a young trotter, or any trotter, or even some
pacers. The track is very loose and the turns are uneven ground. That
plays into her current form, as does a tune up at Georgian last time
where she wasn't bad, although a bad overbet favorite. Neither of those
factors are her fault.
7 Holiday Style
shows nothing to suggest she can go with maidens, let alone stakes horses and some who are winners. I can't see her.
8 Lady Justice
made 52k last year, but never won a race. Her first two this year have
been terrible, and she draws bad again. Another I cannot see at this
stage, but Henry might turn her around during the summer. I will watch
for tonight.
9 Gaelic Lass
has a bad post, a low percentage driver, and doesn't look fit enough or
fast enough to compete yet. Lets see what she can do. I don't like her
tonight, that is obvious from my previous comment. She gets 1st time
trotting hopples, so there is room for improvement as she goes along.
10 Angora Seelster
has some speed, and some upside, but as for tonight, she has a non
driving trainer and the 10 hole, and she is erratic on her own. Can't
play her from what I see, but she will be a player at some stage this
season.
1 Try to Resist
2 Perfect Delight
3 Tymal Declan
6 Anikadabra
7 Majestic Kat
8 Jilona
RACE 5 1 Try to Resist
is a maiden leaving from the rail who has not showed the speed or ability of many of these. Cant see her getting money.
2 Perfect Delight
trotted a solid mile in her first effort of the year, 2nd of her
career. I can see her going forward and she would be a decent longshot
if her ML holds, which I suspect it wont.
3 Tymal Declan
has not shown anything to suggest she belongs with this group, or at
this track. She will have to fool me. She appears to be a nice B track
horse if she sticks to that and stays in conditions.
4 Da Miracle
t
rotted
a decent yet unspectacular mile last time, shaving her time down
considerably in her first start of the year. She is another who could
step up, in a race where there are many unknowns.
5 Bustingattheseams
is
somewhat erratic, yet capable enough when she keeps it together. Post 5
might favor her getting out near the top, where she appears to like it.
Randy is not opposed to doing that and then sitting the entire mile
looking for a late opening. That could be the right formula here. She
shows bursts of speed at different points in different miles. If she
gets the right trip, that burst could be valuable tonight. Shot.
6 Anikadabra
made a good buck at 2, winning the Grassroots final and many other
legs, but has not come back sharp. She could take heavy win money
tonight, and based on her inclination to go backwards so far, and run
last time, I will take my shot against her.
7 Majestic Kat
can be a slow starter, and that is a bit of a problem, but generally
she is progressing and going forward as she races on. She is a viable
option if the price is right. I'd want 4-1 to try her, but either way,
I'd use her in the picks.
8 Jilona
seems to trot right around 57, which might be good enough here. Post
will hurt her, potentially, as she has started slow from the outside and
not been able to make up the difference. That being the case, I could
see Trevor blasting and taking his shot, and my opinion is that if that
were to occur, it will set it up for something late, or Randy if he gets
on her back and finds a way out at the right time. A lot of ifs and
maybe's, but its an angle in a race like this.
9 Ticket to Seattle
b
eat
a very weak bunch 3 weeks ago, draws badly tonight, and loses her
driver to her stablemate. That is enough for me to pass on her.
10 Kendras Coco
i
s an 0 for 10 maiden from the 10 hole coming off a break. That makes her hard to like on multiple levels.
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