Tuesday, June 10, 2014

Mohawk Selections. June 10, 2014

I use statistics. They are a starting point for me. I am not, however, one of those who blindly follows them. I use them as a tool and a guide. When I first started to use them seriously, I did have a tendency to blindly follow them, which was a mistake. In the testing phase, I figured that out. So, I don't do that anymore. I would rather miss a horse the odd time who figures statistically but who I know as an old school handicapper is a very poor bet from a value perspective. If you don't realize that, you can get in a very deep hole chasing the probability. That is why you test. To find out things like that. The goal is to make money, not prove your theory to an absolute.
There are no absolutes when it comes to betting on sports and horses. People and animals are involved. There can never be any absolutes when that is the case. It isn't pure science. It is more math. But not completely math either. Sounds confusing. It is. Betting for money can be very frustrating and confusing at times. You just have to believe you know what you are doing and it will work if you work hard at it, stick to your guns and do the right things.
I am that. Confident. But even I, at times, don't stick to my guns and pay the price for that.
One time last winter,  I knew the 2nd favorite was way overdue to win. That is generally a good indicator to use for two reasons. First, the second favorite almost never pays less than even money, and usually is good for about 2-1 and even as high as 5-1. And secondly, it is a consistent variable over time and doesn't usually have long periods where it doesn't come through. But like any variable, there are exceptions. In this case, it had gone two complete cards and not won. More than 20 races. Since the 2nd fave wins more than 20 percent of the races at almost every track in existence, it should win 1 in 5. When it goes 0 for 10, it is significant. 0 for 20 is very significant. More than that, and you can almost be certain it will win on the next card. And that is where I sat, waiting to pounce on that 3rd card. However, almost be certain isn't the same thing as being completely certain. Exceptions abound in any system. As I handicapped that coming card, I could pretty much tell who most of the 2nd faves would be, and many of them were iffy. My gut told me to lay off them. But, you have to ignore your gut at times and just stick with the system. So, I did that. And all of those 2nd faves failed. All 11 of them. Now we were 3 cards in with no 2nd faves. I was about 6 bets in without a winner, and since I increase my bets on every loss to make sure I make a profit when it hits, I was in dangerous territory. Then came the next card. We were now something like 0 for 34, and it was about the 5th race. I did like the next 2nd fave, and there were other variables that pointed to it.  So, I played it.  And it got beat, barely. But still, barely is still not cashing. Now I was very deep in the hole. Easy to just give up at that point. But, I did not. I played the next one, because I really liked that horse anyway on old school handicapping principles, and it won. At 7-2, which meant a huge profit at the end of it all.
But more important than the huge profit, was that I learned a very valuable lesson. I don't want to be in the position where I need the next one to win or I go bust. That is a very terrible feeling and it easily can go against you to the point you don't have the capital or guts to carry on and see it through. It was an extremely important lesson in avoiding absolute thinking. Luckily, I got out of that one intact. 
So, starting today, I will blog a bit about what I see, and how I attempt to use them.
It isn't an exact science. Very few things in life are. You have to use them wisely, combine them with other factors and tools, and basically work on a percentage basis. The goal is to tip the odds in your favor, as opposed to have them stacked against you, which most betting is.
Most of us who bet money with the expressed intent of making a profit understand well that the odds are stacked against us. That is simply because a very high percentage is taken right off the top by the government and the track. In most cases, that ranges from 15 to 25 percent. That is a very tough rake to overcome. You need serious tools to beat that. No matter how good you are or think you are at handicapping races, very few can overcome that with simple, old school handicapping. There is just too much competition out there and the overlays that used to be out there have been closed up by the supercomputer, big money whales who have teams out there to spot them. 

 On to tonights card.

Here are some overall bias factors that point to some plays on this card.
1) Post 4 has not won a race on the last 3 cards. Lets take a quick look at why that matters and what you can do with that info.
Like the other inside post positions, post 4 on the WEG circuit wins at approximately 10%. Only post 5 and 6 are significantly higher, while post 8, 9 and 10 are much lower.
On any given card, that means PP 4 should win 1 race. Of course, that doesn't happen every night. Sometimes, it even goes a whole second card without winning a race. But, how often does it happen 3 cards in a row?
It actually happened twice last month. And it went 4 cards in a row in April. But that is rare. In total, post 4 has now gone 44 races without a win. The odds are highly stacked in favor of at least 1 winning on this card, most likely 2, possibly 3 and maybe even 4 winners from post 4.
So what,  you say? That doesn't give me the winner of any particular race. And that would be correct. But it tells you that there is a winner or two there. You have to find that winner.
I also keep stats on particular races. In this blog, I will note which races post 4 has also not won and then assess that horses chances and what I would consider fair value odds. I will pick 2 or 3 that I think will get the job done, and I will bet them if the odds justify that. Of course, if the horse is 3-5, I won't. I view that as a bad percentage bet most nights. Experience has taught me that.
Post 3 also didn't win a race on Monday's card, and I have a couple of races where I see a high probability for those. I will analyze those also. The tricky part becomes when both posts converge on the same race, and then you have to decide which to play, or to play both, or to leave them both. That is the money making part. Hopefully. Last night, I didn't call it right, and it cost me a 9-1 shot that I saw coming. I will discuss that within the blog.
2) Drivers Mike Saftic and Jonathan Drury are both long overdue to get a win. Jody Jamieson has not won on the last two cards he has driven, and he booked off last night for whatever reason. Everything all 3 of them drive will need to be studied. I also keep driver specific, race specific results, so I can narrow down the probability there as well. Because Saftic and Drury are low percentage guys anyway, you have to be very selective with those two. They could both easily draw another ofer. Jody is virtually a lock to win a race if he has enough drives and shows up.
3)The favorite lost the last 6 races in a row last night, so I see that as significant and see race specific opportunities early in the card to take advantage of that.
Now, on to the handicapping and specific race choices and picks.

Race 1)
The favorite has not won Race 1 in the last 5. That is a medium bias to be considered, but not a huge factor.
On the program, the likely favorite is Speckled Door, the 4 horse, and possibly Shadowbriand, the 8 horse, with Jody driving.
P L Hoofhearted, the 6 horse, has Drury and also appears to be one of the top 3 contenders and likely favorites.
As mentioned earlier, both Jody and Drury are due for a win. Unless they dead heat, they both can't win this race. Post 4 is way overdue as mentioned as well, and coupled with the favorite bias, means Speckled Door is the bias choice.
Here are some other factors. Jody has not won Race 1 in at least the last 40 times it has been run. Same for J. Drury. That is some extra bias.
Lets take a look at the actual horses in the race.
4)Speckled Door is definitely the hot horse. Wintered in Florida, where he beat up on much lesser competition before he moved North, he has come back sharp and beaten some pretty good horses...handily. However, he has shown some rough gaited trips within those miles, and while his form on paper can't be denied, he is definitely vulnerable. Last time, he made one uncontested move to the top and got a very soft half for which he just accelerated home away from them. While he certainly has the speed to go more (he won in 1:51.2 3 starts back, he didn't have to go much last time to get it done. I see more pressure on him this time. With his likely 6-5 price, I will go elsewhere. Hopefully post 4 will still be a live play after this race. He is moving up in class, and that can't be ignored.
8)Shadowbriand gets Jody, as mentioned and has very good form for trainer J. Darling, who is winning and hitting the board at a very high rate. He was parked the mile last time, 3 wide in the third quarter and finished solidly against much better than anything in here (Prince Clyde, who is a stakes winner, and Cobble Beach, who beat better last night). He is 5 for 5 on the board this year, won handily 3 starts back on the engine, and looks like the one in this race. I would hope to get 2-1 or higher and at that price, he is the play in here. Others can beat him, but he appears to be the value. I don't see that much hot gate speed inside of him and if he gets to the top early, and follows Speckled Door, who is likely to make a backstretch move, he should have plenty of track and pace left in the lane to win it.
6) P L Hoofhearted went to Georgian last time, gunned out from the rail, backed the half off and then accelerated away from much lesser competition. He held his own at London in the OSS, but so did the other top 2 picks in here. You can't discount that Casie will have him sharp, better and possibly improving. I see about 7-2 on him, and I don't think that is good value based on his current level relative to others in here. I will hope to catch J. Drury later on the card.
Sword of the Spirit has yet to win on this circuit, made a break in his last and now comes off a vet scratch. I don't see him doing anything but sitting a mid pack trip and hoping to pick up 4th or 5th money. No threat in my book.
Steady Warrior blew up the tote board at 89-1 last time for Sylvain with a very impressive backstretch brush and he opened up enough to hold off the closers, who were getting to him. He moves up off that win, but he certainly can't be discounted. How good is he? We will see. It wouldn't shock me if he was in contention. He got second in the Battle of Waterloo final last year, so he certainly is well thought of and has some class on his side as he moves up.
Whosurpal, off since January when he was racing poorly at London looks iffy to begin with, not to mention he likely needs a start. Pass on him. He is worth watching though, to see where he fits in the future. He did win here last year in good time. Tab for later.
Panedictine moves from a protected 15 claimer, where he was so-so to a bunch of tougher stakes colts who are on the improve. Can't see him at all. No shot.
Littlebitaclass has done little in two starts back since he was good in the winter. Jody ditches him for Darling's horse, and I see him as a likely small cheque getter. A lot of things would have to go right for him and wrong for others to have any shot.

1. Shadowbriand
2. Speckled Door
3. P L Hoofheated

No longshot plays at all.

If Shadowbriand brings 3-1 or higher, he is my best bet of the night.

Race 2)
There is no race specific bias for post position, however the 2nd favorite has lost race 2 the last 12 times. That is significant.
Very contentious race, where any number look capable yet beatable for various reasons.
Good race to try and sort them out.
Who is the likely favorite?
The morning line says Samira Hanover.
7) Samira Hanover is the type that looks sensational for a while, then terrible a week later. As the likely favorite, I would play against her. Off 4 straight wins, including a stakes final where she blew up the tote board, she failed last time as the 4-5 favorite. She had no zip. P Mac abandons her for the rail horse, who while certainly a higher caliber filly, isn't doing great either. Bad sign for me. I will pass on Samira and look elsewhere. If she went off as second favorite, I would pass the race. I think she will race poorly.
6)BWT Taj gets Jody, and certainly he raced excellent last time and has been super good since Carmen took him off Henrickson. With his gate speed and his sharp form, as the second choice, plus Jody being due to win a few, I would be all over him. He got beat last time by a real tough mare who is in the Preferred tonight. Nuff said. Any other night, and he is riding a 4 race winning streak. I would hope to get 5-2 on him, but would accept 2-1. If he is lower,  the value is lost. I would not touch him at lower than 9-5.
4) Rolls Blue Chip, is the unknown here. With post 4, he falls into the overdue factor. He could also easily go off as the second choice, doubling his bias. He adds Jackie Mo, also a plus. On back class, he is the class of this field. Durand is a pretty sharp trotter trainer and his form isn't horrible either. He does need to step up his game here, but he has had 3 starts back now and some poor post have led to poor starts. If he can get away better here and only need one solid move in the lane, he is VERY dangerous. I would want 7-2, but I see the race as a toss up between him and BWT Taj. If the price is right, I would play them both to win.
Riveting Rosie, the 2 year old champ from last year has not come back good. I can't see her being dangerous here. I suspect this is a race to sit with her and try to get her back on track for bigger things. It is mid June now, and currently she hasn't got it together. Time is running out. Soft trip, pick up a share if she can, but no threat for the in. Toss.
Quit Smoking Now raced terrible last time, has not made the top 5 in his last 5 and shows no sign of improvement. He didn't even look good when he won in the winter. Complete toss.
Standing My Ground isn't a toss, but she is in the ballpark of that possibility. Minor share trip, possible tri factor is two of my top 3 run for some reason. Otherwise, she is a bit overmatched now that the better horses are out of the closet.
Little Red Chev has some nice ability, and maybe in a month or two she will step up like Rose Run Orianna did in the winter. Right now, she is only dangerous, not contentious. I will pass, but not toss.
Anaffairtoremember broke last time after a good start the time before on her return to the races. Tough call on her. She was second to Bee A Magician in her final start at 3, and that can't be ignored. However, she might be out for a clean line tonight. Your call. I will pass, but she does worry me.
1. BWT Taj
2. Rolls Blue Chip
3. Standing My Ground

Anaffairtoremember is a viable longshot in the 15-1 range.
Box the top 2 picks in the exactor and/or wheel them on top with a few others, but not Samira Hanover or Riveting Rosie.

Race 3)
For this race, a cheap trotting claimer that I would normally avoid, post 2 has not won race 3 in the last 35 tries. So, lets have a look at the 2 and the 4 to see if there is anything to play with in addition to the bias.
Billy Davis Jr. has not won race 3 in the last 39, but he is on Gunga Win, who is very unreliable. I suppose for a very big price, say 15-20 to 1,  he is worth a shot, but I won't be taking that shot.
Post 2 offers up He's A Demon,  a back class horse coming off a win in this class and a win two starts prior. I suppose if you got 5-1 he might be some value, but I expect more like 5-2, which means he is a pass for me.
Post 4 is Zorgwick Jock, who, to be fair, has had 4 9 and 10 holes in his last 6 starts and moves in this week. Nevertheless, he is the type that finds a way to lose every week. I will pass on him. Of all the post 4's tonight, I feel pretty safe staying away from him. Hopefully I will already have bagged Rolls Blue Chip at a good price in Race 2. Even if I don't. I will pass this horse.
Otherwise, go ahead, try to sort these out. May I suggest a dart board and a fortune teller?
No selections.
Pass the race.


Race 4)

Contrary to race 3, this is a great race to try and get a price. Many horses in this race are likely to be overbet.
Lets start with the contenders on paper.
6) Brookdale Shadow returns to this class off an easy,convincing win and some other decent effort. P Mac is back in the bike for high percentage trainer Moore. Seems like a pretty easy play, right? Wrong. She has looked a bit sore or lame in the starts I've seen her, and I suspect she is very vulnerable. I will play against her and the likely short price.
10) Dana Dearest, the likely second choice and possibly the favorite, draws the 10 hole off a very convincing 3 for 3 start to the year, the last two coming in this class. Another solid play, right? Wrong. First off, the 10 hole. Can you say traffic trouble? I knew you could. On top of that, she is a Jeremes Jet. She will hit the speed and toughness wall at some point. Maybe tonight is that night. I will play against her as well. I would put her in the tri or super if I was playing that, but not the top 2.
3) Lady Jake exits stakes horses, and on paper should roll this bunch. On paper. Trainer McNair sent out 4 fillies in the Fan Hanover elims on Saturday, and they were the only 4 to miss the final. Two of them looked like a cinch to make it. One of those beat Lady Jake last time. She has not started the year off well at all. She gets a trainer and driver change this time. Still, can't see it mattering. I will pass on her as well. Not even for a top 4 finish. Complete out for me.
7)Frame Worthy, looked great on paper last time, but horrible on the track. She was running in bad in the stretch and actually interferred with the runner up,...after the wire. Master steer by Fillion to get her home, but these are tougher,  and she is likely lamer. Complete toss for me.
And so we are back to the bias again. Post 4, and also post 4 has not won race 4 in the last 15 tries. Lets take a look at that mare.
4) Unique Rock N Roll is a pretty nicely bred homebred RockNRoll Hanover for Robert Hamather. Team McNair handles her, and although her recent form is spotty, she has been racing okay enough to pick up the pieces on this very iffy bunch. The price will be good, and I would hope for something in the 8-1 to 12-1 range.  I am not a big fan of either McNair, but I can't deny they both win their share. This is her 3rd start back. Chancy play, but the circumstances are right here.
Nine Lives Hanover and Zenobia Blue Chip are complete tosses for me on form and apparent lack of class.
Rocknflo and  Gallarina appear overmatched on form, class and post position. Can't see either getting a cheque unless the top ones are even worse than I think they are.
Noble Jilly has been lame and dangerous to drive for some time.  On her best day, if she was sound, she could win. Don't know when that is, but it doesn't appear to be on the horizon. I don't see J. Drury breaking the donut with this one.

1. Unique Rock N Roll
2. Brookdale Shadow
3. Dana Dearest

If the price is right, hit Unique Rock N Roll straight for the win. Less than 7-1 is not acceptable. I could even see getting 15-1 on her if something else gets hammered.

Race 5)

Young, conditioned trotters. Always tough to sort out. Lets see what the numbers tell us first.
Post and favorites specific to the race offer us nothing. HOWEVER,  race 5 has not had a longshot in the 8-1 to 20-1 range in the last 28. That is very significant and likely to yield something if we can find one. Let's see what the handicapping tells us.
1) The morning line favorite, Scary Magic, comes off a break which followed a somewhat impressive but not spectacular maiden score picking off some marginal horses for this circuit. He screams out as false favorite. I will pass on him.
5)2nd morning line fave,  Aggressive, comes off a pretty good 2yo year with an 0 for 5 stat line that doesn't impress. He can likely make the ticket, but not a good play for the win. Yes, he did get 3rd in a gold split at London last time, but if you took a look at that field, it was not deep and he was no threat to the winner or 2nd horse. I will pass, even though Saftic is overdue. Hope to catch him  later if I find something that makes sense. He could easily go ofer again. He has been driving poorly for a while now, to be very blunt. His .183 average is not jockey club worthy anymore. He can still win races, but there has to be a lot of value attached. Don't see it on this one, who could easily be in the 2-1 range or less. He scream "Underlay"
2)Herecomesthebride was a decent 2yo but ran before the start last time, was refunded and had to requalify. She has the ability, and shows flashes, but I don't see the price being worthy of a shot with her here. She could beat me, but I will take that chance on a filly that is 4 qualifiers deep into a 1 start season.
9) Serendipitous could be the one for Jody and father Carl. She shows flashes where she looks like a decent stakes mare. They tried her in the Celias Counsel, and when she behaved she was okay enough to beat these. To say that Carl is having a horrific year is a monumental understatement. However, he didn't win the Obrien award by accident, nor the Breeders Crown and NA Cup, among his many big time wins. I expect and would hope for a price in the 10-1 range, and that would be just about right for me. Jody is due, the filly is okay, and others look like they could easily fail. Count me in.
6) I am Special has shown flashes were I have taken notice. I have also noticed she is very hot, has nickle bred manners and could easily be offstride long before the car pulls away. If you don't like Jody's horse, you could take a shot at this one. CC is good with young trotters. You likely get 15-1 or higher on this one. Chancy is understating it, but there is a chance. She did take her time down to 1:57 last time, albiet doing nothing to suggest she was going to win that race against a horse who would whip this bunch. You figure all that out.
3) Spec T is a Michigan invader who race several times at Grand River last year and resurfaces after a 7 month layoff with a new trainer/owner and an okay qualifier. These are the types that step up and win these types of races. They are also the type that get on the list over and over again. The driver would concern me here. Not likely any holes opening up for him. Another tough call, but not a toss out either.
4) Valencia Sol, is a post 4 that I will pass on. She is hard to like off those lines, with that form and lack of speed with Dustin, who can't even win a race at London these days. I will get beat and accept that if she blows up the tote board at 40-1 plus.
Nickange Two, Muscle Girl and Needle Pointe all give you multiple reason to discount them and not worry that they will upset the apple cart.
1. Serendipitous
2. Spec T
3. I am Special

Not sure if I will play any of this bunch. Want to see the post parade and how they look. If I were inclined I would probably play them all on the front end of a pick 3 with the likely favorites coming on the back end in race 6 and 7.

Race 6)
The favorite has not only not won race 6 in the last 6 tries, it has missed the board entirely. Big bias for it to make the top 2, and likely win. Lets take a look at the contenders.
7)Company Man, the likely post time fave and morning line fave got too far behind early last time and couldn't reel in the 89-1 winner. He still did race good though, his second very good effort in a row. Back half in 55 flat last time himself. He does that again, from a bit closer and he jogs. Short price likely, but he can be a possible single in your pick 4, or in my case, pick 3 on the back of the 3 longshots I chose in race 5. Have to get 6-5, anything less is an underlay.
3) Twin B Spy disappointed last time at Georgian by flopping at 1-2. He started off the season well in his first try and was good enough last year to make the OSS Super Final. If anyone can turn him around, its Casie. And if Drury is going to get off the schneid tonight, this could be the one. I would hope for 4-1 on him, and he is playable at that price. If Company Man doesn't have it, he picks up the pieces.
4) Major Deagan has a shot. Got the 4 hole and that is a good bias. He has looked good for weeks and won easily to break his maiden last time to a horse that came right back in that class and jogged. He moves up, but I think he has what it takes to step right up. I see 4-1 on him, and I'd consider him as well. I like the other two ahead of him better, but I wouldn't be shocked if he got his picture taken tonight.

6) Big Surf, shows flashes of ending up being a pretty useful and decent WEG horse. He also shows flashes of being a moneysucker who burns you many times over. He got a horrible trip last time, and Sylvain has been replaced. That tells you what the trainer thought the problem was last time. He is capable of reversing that result with Jackie Mo in the bike, but I will avoid him. His price wont likely be justifiable. Last quarter in 32 last time suggests he may have some residual effect this week, and/or he goes directly to the rail and stays put, only coming out late to pick up a minor cheque. Either way, not what I am looking for here.

5) American Bull was one I took note of when he was 2nd after a boxed in trip in a 15 restricted claimer. He then didn't race well in Tioga, but he seems to be hot and cold. Jody is on him, and Menary is the trainer. They seem to do well together. At 8-1, he offers a price. I think he gets beat, but he is capable enough if certain things go his way.
2) Party Dont Stop took a while to break his maiden when most thought he would get it done right away. Now at NW2, he appears to be one of those who isn't going to live up to his potential as a young horse. Pass on him until I see whatever everyone else who hammered him before sees. So far, I see a horse who finds ways to lose.
Swiss Bank Hanover, Naked City and Major Homer all don't appear to have a shot from the outside with this tough bunch. Toss all of them.

1. Company Man
2. Twin B Spy
3. Major Deagan

Longshot chance to American Bull.

Race 7)
Very tough race to call. A lot of horses with spotty form, could be good, could be no good.
Lets lean on the numbers.
Two things jump out at me. The inside 4 post positions haven't won race 7 in the last 11 starts. Secondly, the second fave has not won in the last 11 nor the top 2 faves in the last 3 times.
So, it should be a top 2 fave from the inside. Now to handicap and see how that matches up.
Right off the bat, the inside 4 all look like big longshots, with only the rail horse, Flanagan Memory with enough form and class to be dangerous. His first was a disaster, his next okay but not spectacular. I think you could see 8-1 or higher on him, and he is worth a shot at that price, but certainly can't see him being a top 2 fave.
6) Intimidate, the likely favorite returns for his 4th start of the year. First start was on okay 2nd in this class, followed by a foolish trip to the Meadowlands where he was way overmatched by horses that he can't currently go with. Back home now, he can take these if his form is still good. Is it?
8) Slip Into Glide has beaten these twice pretty easily and taken 4 of 5 with them, only being 2nd the other time. Can't fault his form or sharpness. Can he keep going like that? Maybe.
7) Fearless Man is the new kid on the scene, with noted trotting man Zeron taking over. He has taken two in a row at Philly with similar caliber. If the other two fail, he is likely the one and may even be the 2nd fave.
9) Mego Moss did not look good at all last time and maybe he is spent. I will pass unless he shows me he can turn that around. He has been very hard raced since Carmen took over and it appears to be taking its toll.
5) Rose Run Oriana steps up to this level for the first time and while she has been very good, she has not shown she can tackle these types of bearcats and live to tell. She can get 4th or 5th if she is raced to do just that. Keep an eye on her when she is allowed to go back down.

The rest don't figure. Only Flanagan Memory has the ability to take them down.
Tough call. If I play the pick3 as stated earlier, I would use my top 3 picks and Flanagan Memory. The single is likely Company Man in race 6.

Race 8)
Cheap 8 claimers. Fun wow.
No bias here. Even better.
I can't find one I like for any reason. I will take a complete pass.
If you need to play the late pick 4, take a lot of them.
The only advice I will give you is that I know of Charmbo Willie well, and I said this last time. Dean Nixon is a fantastic trainer who is very sharp in every department, including classification. But in this case, I still don't see Charmbo Willie not hitting the wall at the tote board because of the very long stretch, something he had issues with even in London. If he is the favorite, play elsewhere. Who else? I don't know. But not him.

Race 9)
Mid condition trotters. Tough bunch to play with. But playable.
Strong bias to the pp2 and pp4. Lets take a look at those two and others.
2) Gotta Secret. Fillion/Moreau combo, who got it done with a similar poor performer in Smarty Pants last night. This horse has trouble at this level, but on a good night, can get it done. Price will be right, but I will pass on him.
4) Windsong Geant is a horse I never ever play, because he is very lame and bad gaited. CC books off him to take the rail horse. Nuff said. He moves up as well. Another pass.
The balance of the field I could go either way on any of them. So, I will watch and look for an angle next week. Right now, don't see this race as viable for me. Too many with hard to figure form.

If J. Drury is still due, I might be tempted to play Burnin Money if he post parades well and I could get 5-1 or higher. I doubt that happens though.

Race 10)
Fillies and Mares.Nw2. Always a tough bunch to play, but always provides a value play. Lets see if we can find it.
Post 4 looks like a good play still, especially if none or only one has come through. Also, strong bias for a 10-1 to 20-1 shot by the numbers.
6) Polk Dot Hanover was one I played last time with Jody, and she couldn't get it done, although she raced ok. She is still possible, but I can see her going home without a photo.
3) Porsche Seelster is another who looks capable enough, but beatable enough. Her first of the year, he last start, was okay, but not great. She races tougher generally, but only follows them, not engage them. Hard to see where she is at. The price is still likely too low for me, so I will go elsewhere.
4) Wildcat Magic is the one I go to in here. Post 4 and some form to back it up. CC dumps her to dance with Born To Dream,  for O'sullivan, but that is to be expected considering his power and the overall scheme of things. Fillion takes over, and that is a wash in my book. She has been keeping a lot better company than any of these can claim and holding her own. If she holds that form,  she beats these. I would hope for 9-2, and I would play her at that price.
2) Magna Blue Chip is the only longshot in my range here that gives me any sign she can get it done, and as Boyd's stable is not going great right now, I will wait on her and stick with my top choice as a single,  assuming the price meets my demands.
1. Wildcat Magic
2.Polk Dot Hanover
3. Magna Blue Chip

Longshot chance on Porsche Seelster. But the price doesn't likely justify that.

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