WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: January 20, 2017

Have to say I don't like this card, but, it is what it is. My best exotic reflects that. I will need 3 singles, all fairly marginal horses to take down a pick 4. Its possible, but a suspect ticket. I'd also need the longshot in race 8 to make it payoff. That might bring the favorite anyway. 


To summarize, I view these as the likely favorites, and I have separated them by play against or play, or, not play against but not plays either.

PLAY AGAINST

RACE 1  Ava N Ella

RACE 3 Awesomeness

RACE 4  Shes A Maniac

RACE 5  Request For Parole
RACE  9 Senior K

RACE 10 Hot Spot Hanover 

RACE 11 Barocky

PLAY

RACE 7 A Plus

include but add others

RACE 2  In Secret, Adversity
RACE 5  Much Adoo
RACE 6   DEWEYKEEPUMNWHY
RACE 8   Rockin With Dewey

My best exotic play, based on the way the races look to me is this: 

pick 4 Race 8
8)    2,3,5,6,8,9  
9)    6  
10)  6

11)  2

  6 combos.  20c cost is $1.20

RACE 1

1 Queenofthejungle is 1 for 35 the last two years and rarely shows you more than one that will follow and luck into trips that get her slices. She has one fast quarter in her, and that isn't good enough to beat some of these if they show up. You'd have to think at least one does and she doesn't win this in that scenario.

2 Queenofhearts was soundly beaten by Northfield rats last time. Cant see how she plays with this bunch.

3 Ava N Ella went a big qualifier, her 3rd in a row off a big layoff and very sparse racing to this point in her career. Qualifiers aren't races and she will have to be seen. She is a very tough sell to take a short price off the variables she shows on the page. Being inbred as she is, she also screams of unsoundness, which her performance to date suggests is an issue for her.

4 Kays Shadow  finally turned it around on December 17, as she had showed signs and flashes of the ability she  first surfaced as a 2yo. She has serious soundness issues, which are obvious to anyone that has watched her, and most of her sires foals exhibit those, which is no secret to any horseman who trains them. On her best day, when she is in form, she is the best of this bunch. Another that will have to be seen, as she could easily revert back to her problems and be awful. She has missed an entire month, that is troublesome.

5 Tempus Seelster draws a better post and theoretically a softer bunch than the Niagara or her last with tough seasoned older mares. Her form is awful however, and she isn't the toughest competitor in the stretch. She is the ML choice, although I would have doubts she would go off as the post time fave. I have no trouble going against her. Zeron's barn is very cold lately and has been for a few months now. She adds up to a play against if she draws the shortest price. And even if she doesn't. I like others.

6 Dewar N Soda goes first time McNair, which is a potent angle at times. Others look a lot better than her on the page and she was fairly soundly trounced in the Niagara, while others were competitive. I will pass on her and McNair can step up and prove me wrong here.

7 P L Jasmine finished poorly in the Niagara final, but won the leg before that. She is an inconsistent mare at this stage, and that win was the only one she achieved last year. She has a shot in a spotty field with a trainer who fixes issues and gets them back in the right direction quickly.

8 Acefourtyfour Alex is a nice enough B track horse, but has not proved she can go with these, and her form is weak on top of that. I'd have to see more to back her. Pass for now.

RACE 2

1 Utopia had great form until the night he was claimed, when he walked home and has been horrid since. Tonight, he gets the rail and Massey. At this point, with all those strikes, I don't see the class drop is anywhere near enough to make him viable. Total pass.

2 Amityville Lindy needs so much babying to be viable that any class rise, like this one, even though its somewhat minor, is enough to think he cant beat them all. He is a bottom of the ticket consideration, but not a win threat in my eyes.

3 Kinetic King brings his weak win record in to this contest, and meets the same types he has met lately. His driver is habitually low percentage, and I will go to others. I would toss him.

4 Vics Royal Lady trotted a decent effort in fast time to nab 3rd last time. Her leave and sit strategy and ability plays well in the winter, at this track, and in this field. She has a minor shot in that scenario and I'd use her in the picks because of it. She will need a lot of things to go her way, but it happens.

5 In Secret pounced last time and showed up at the right time to win the big prize. He moves up here, which is a concern, and he isn't always as good week to week as you like to see, but he is good enough when he is to negate the rise. Usable, but not reliable.

6 Musical Spell is 1 for 38 the last two years and in deep at this level. He is borderline at the bottom anyway. Pass for me.

7 Adversity is very cyclical and currently is on a decent cycle, but he is also very capable of going the other way without much notice. He is the classic on the fence type and you use him because you have to so he doesn't beat you. Not my top choice, but cant toss him either.

8 Burnin Money is another who picks up McNair, first time on the page. He does well with Carmen, but I have my doubts about this horse, as I always do. He finds ways to lose. I'm not sure he is in light enough at this stage of his career. He is possible, but I prefer others. He has taken back almost every time from this type of post, but once, when he gunned out and stopped to a walk in the lane. I can't see what approach works here.

9 Buzz trotted a huge mile at a big price last time to get 2nd money. 3 back he was used hard from the 9 hole a step lower and he wasn't so peppy in the lane. All things considered, the odds are against him here. I will toss him, with caution. If you like him, use him. I don't. Not in this spot on all the variables.

RACE 3

1 Hughgetthecredit has been pretty good for quite a while, and noticably much better for Cullen than he was for the previous connections. However, he draws the rail here, which is likely to compromise him, and if he aims to cut this again, is ripe to get picked up. I will go elsewhere for better value.

2 Silversmith is so far outclassed here, its hard to figure why he is entered. He cant handle maidens, but he meets legit nw3 or better types with good form. He is 100-1 and then some.

3 Brookletsjustified comes off a sharp win for Weller, and retains JJ. Everything looks like he is the one here.

4 Home James has trouble when he meets some of the better ones, and looks more like a claimer to me. I will pass. He has some talent, just not enough for some of these.

5 New Standard I dont see anything to suggest he is ticket material here. Nuff said.

6 Sure Fired Bet showed flashes in the Autumn that he can do with these on his best day, but has regressed. Harding's charges have a tendency to step up when you don't see them coming. If there is a hard to like longshot in this bunch that could upset them, he is it. I'm not entirely sold on the 2 or 3 horses who figure, so if you have room, use him.

7 Clouseau Hanover broke his maiden, then drew terrible in the next two starts at nw2. He looks like the type that will develop over time. I'm not sure he is quite ready to beat these, but he could progress throughout the series and I'd keep my eye on him.

8 Emptythetill has decent form and certainly a minor shot. But, the poor post, plus his racing level being a step below a better one in here, one that McNair took over him, suggests to make a call against him. Which I will do.

9 Awesomeness is clearly the class of the field here, with the hot driver, and he cant be dismissed. He does have a habit of finding troubled trips or heavy traffic, and there is more value in making the final than gunning in an early leg, which is what got him beat in the opening leg of the last series. McNair is a lot more aggressive than RW, so, I might expect him to roll out of there, and get picked off late. I will go against him for the win and roll the dice. Post can really hurt here.

RACE 4

1 E L Avenger has many strikes against her. Driver, trainer, win record, post and class. I think that's enough comment right there.

2 Total Knockout  showed up last time and picked up 2nd money. Sometimes she does, other times, she just doesn't try. I can't count on her and she is pace dependent on top of that. I will go elsewhere.

3 Mappos Moenhay dives into a claimer for cover for Joe C, who she has not performed for. She gets Massey, who doesn't get respect or holes either. I will go against her even with the class relief. She likely wakes up at some point. I will bet it isn't tonight.

4 Good Luck Kathy takes a drop here, slight as it may be. She has won in the winter at this track before, and she isn't impossible tonight with this suspect group, especially if she is sitting mid pack and the 10 gets parked and takes a few with her on the mission to clear. She is a viable longshot because of who she is and what she has done before. She is the classic opportunist, which plays well in the winter at WEG. Roy can wake one like this up as well. That is a factor.

5 Fire Watch does her best racing when the horses are cheaper than these, as they were last time at Flamboro, where she won at 1-9, off a perfect trip. No thanks. I've seen enough of what she does at this track. She is the bit player type.

6 Donna Party  can certainly turn the tables on the 10 with the post advantage here. She needs some luck, but she is likeable if you can get 3-1 or 7-2, which seems reasonable. I expect Fillion to blast and either cut it or get a pocket trip with the option to pull early if that one isn't going enough.

7 Smile Style does not show the kind of speed you would need to be competitive with the top rung here. Moase is tricky at times, but I have to pass on this one.

8 James and Morgan looks to be one of those tweeners you see in the winter. Pretty good at the level below this at the B's, but not good enough to be ticket material when she meets those and some of these at this track. I can't back her from the 8 hole and I'd have trouble justifying that from a better post too.

9 Watt a Funny Face drew badly, which really hurts her. She moves back up to try these, but would be a decent play if she drew 7 hole or inside of that. She needs a good start and not to get gassed to get there. That doesn't look likely here. She is probably going to effect the outcome, but not get paid for it.

10 Shes a Maniac drew the claim last time, doubled up, and now takes the higher tag and gets the 10 hole for her trouble. I would go elsewhere. She is the type that doesn't hold form too long if you give her a reason not to. There are reasons here to think she is in for a long trip.

RACE 5

1 Kiss Me or Not at this stage, she appears a class mover that needs the bottom and the right other horses in the race to get there first. Add Billy D into the mix, and I will pass and wait for the big drop for the possible pop. That comes if she gets no money tonight.

2 Cant Stop is a really nice B track horse to own, and when there, she is almost always bringing home some money, even the top prize on occasion. Back at this track, she struggles. She is another who will have to go lower to get my interest.

3 Marquise De Sarah has been off many months and shows back up in Weller's barn, which is a signal she needs whatever he can offer her. She has never been very sound or one that drives well, especially on the turns. Those types dont wear well as they age. She has had many comebacks off long layoffs, and eventually she just wont perform. I will have to see her go. Her qualifier was poor and she cant be played off of that. Watch her and see where she is at.

4 Voodoo Charm  paced a back half in 54.2 from the 10 hole last time. That cant be overlooked. She still looks ugly doing it, and is another who doesn't look viable unless she hits bottom. Even then, her issues lead you to think she could blow up that night too. Pass.

5 Miss Coco Luck is not one I prefer, but the inside horses look cheap, and the outside ones have trip issues. So, if you are inclined, add her on the chance she actually has a good night. When she does, with her potential tactical gate speed, she could fall into a winning trip. She is unlikely to do it on her own. Her win record reflects that. She isn't impossible either.

6 Greystone Ladylike started poorly from the 8 hole last time and had no shot to make up the difference, in spite of pacing a back half in 54.3. Her form is relatively good, she is classified with ones she can handle when she is in decent form and draws well. The variables favor her here with the main foes outside of her. Lukewarm top call. No cinch for sure.

7 Icthelight Hanover swims in the deep end now that she cant race against young mares with limited ability. These look too tough for her until she develops or shows she is better than she has been in the past. She drops the win off her 5th line tonight. Watch her to see if she looks viable if the drop materializes for next time.

8 Much Adoo has rounded into form and should be blasting here with McNair. Can she take them all the way? She could, but she is likely to get run at. I will call her to get picked up, but she would have to be used in the picks.

9 Lights Go Out is hard to like on her current form and the post she draws. She raced 44 times last year. That is a lot of starts for a mare that needed a lot of layoffs in the past to stay viable. She will come around. I'd wait for a better spot than this.

10 Request for Parole can take a lot of air at times, and she will need to do that tonight. I will play against her and the chance the post will do her in. The winner likely sits on her back on decent cover or inside of her when she gives it up and gets out close enough to the pace to wear down the leader, who has to fend her off.

RACE 6

1 Ferriswheel Junkie  is a one speed type who is 7 now but has only made 60k lifetime. He does drop back, but he is the kind that finishes 3rd at higher levels, and moves down and doesn't step up. I will consider him that way until he proves otherwise. If Randy shows up, you can expect a buried trip from the rail. He doesn't show the grit to make that work into a win.

2 Scary Good  I can't see any scenario where this one makes the ticket. None.

3 Presquille  drew poorly last time and closed up to pick up 4th money. He has a history of making breaks and being crappy, but he also has a history of stepping up and blowing up the tote board. He could make your pick 4 ticket, and I'd add him in even though he looks like dead money. Not like there is supreme confidence in any of these to toss him on his own poor merit.

4 Maker a Yankee sometimes when you buy a horse at a sale, they come home and just dont work out. This mare looks to be one of those. She doesn't travel well and is a half trier at times. Not to say she cant have a good night, like her stablemate did last night. I just dont see any evidence she is turning. Her poor starts are also a red flag. Pass for now.

5 Severus Hanover picks up JJ and he has driven him before. He is well aware this one is more comfortable going his own mile and letting the chips fall. He generally doesn't follow well unless the leader is a runaway. He is what he is. Can he last this time? He could. I will say he wont and toss him. He isn't reliable enough and I'd rather have another horse in his spot. Risk/reward. If he takes them all the way, so be it.

6 Eldorado of Gold S rarely wins but this is his best post in a while. I'd expect McNair to gas him out of there and try to see how far Severus can take him. It could be the right trip. Usable.

7 Stuarts Dynasty has not won or made the ticket in a long time. I don't see that changing here. He has to do a lot more than he does. Mario has tried various trips for him, he has failed to get it done off of all of them.

8 Deweykeepumnwhy kept it together last time. He is a known quantity. Keep trotting, and win races. Any issue, and he blows up on his own. You have to use him, but you wont know what you will get until they turn down the backside the first time.

9 Air Dynamic switches to Dagfin, loses lasix, gets the 9 hole and comes in from the B tracks with an unknown type driver. I will pass on him tonight and watch. He would have to completely reverse every variable to take this bunch down, as weak as they are. On paper, he looks like a marginal bottom claimer at best.

10 Muscles All Over has zero shot on multiple variables. Toss.

RACE 7

1 Black Widow Baby was a very low percentage winner at this track as a young filly, then went to Yonkers and was a bearcat for a while. She fell off a cliff after that and has been horrendous upon return. I dont see anything yet to suggest she is coming around. Her slow starts, really slow starts, are a hole she doesn't seem able to dig out of.

2 Ninette B has always been a non trier type who needs to be beaten on, and she is better at the B tracks when she is motivated enough. Even at this bottom level, she is hard to back. I will pass on her.

3 J High is rarely good, and when she is, she usually tips her form a start ahead of time. I don't see that yet. Another I will toss until I see something more positive than what is on the page.

4 Show Some Leg simply will not do at the level above this, so she went to Flamboro to drop her bottom line last time. Mission accomplished. She is one of a few who could get the right trip here and make that work. She did that on her bottom line and the competition is similar here. Minor realistic shot on a decent trip and slight class relief.

5 Jordies Hope comes in off a layoff and appeared to need it. Another who lost the edge of facing younger foes and now has to grind it out with the class movers. Her win record, or...lack of wins record, speaks volumes as to where she fits on the scale. She will have to show she can adapt. One start anyway. Pass and toss.

6 A Plus  picks up McNair on her return, with a slight class drop and a solid post that suits her style. As long as she doesn't get trapped in the pocket or run at on the engine, she is likely the one, albeit probably at 8-5 or less.

7 Ainsleynoelle likes to lead, but has trouble lasting. If the 6 is on her back, she is likely to take her in the lane. She does have an overall speed edge currently on these, but that doesn't always hold up in this class.

8 Three Dreams has a post disadvantage to her two main rivals. For a mare that has trouble winning off any trip that isn't very soft and favorable, I will toss her in this spot. If there were a couple of scratches inside of her, that would change things. If not, she is in for a tough trip.

9 Call It Courage I cannot see and will toss. Post 9 is the nail in the coffin here.

10 Kayla Grace looks like a tough sell on her spotty form and the post that relegates her to the back of the bus, and thus, a lot of bad road traffic to go around, assuming she isn't the roadblock they appear to be as well.

RACE 8

This is the race you go very deep and hope for the bomb. That also means avoiding a short priced horse who can take you down and adding a longer one in its place. That is risky, but a good overall play over time. I toss the rail horse, but use almost all the rest. First leg of the late pick 4. You get to see them parade. That would be the final cut decider for me. Many of these are highly variable and have to be seen.

1 Odds on Amethyst cant be backed off his last line. When he goes off form, he really does. If he turns it around, so be it. Post 1 also is an issue for one who doesn't need many reasons to blow up. That played out last time that way. If he does get around ok, off two bad posts for him, I'd look him over for next time. He has more X's than a tic tac toe board on his resume.

2 Exemplar moves up off a decent win, but he has taken down far better when he is good. He also doesn't hold that form well, but he is possible in a race where many are.

3 Totally Ripped rarely wins, but is capable enough and gets a new driver. Maybe he can wake him up and shake him up. I'd use him on the chance he does and many suspect ones dont show up. Its that type of race.

4 Maximuscle has always been prone to gate breaks, and when not doing that, he will also give up the lead pretty easily. He is one I will leave off and take my chances. He moved up without winning and that gets him beat even if he behaves and gets the trip and or fractions. He has competition for the front if he wants it this time. Its enough to roll the dice against him.

5 Rockin With Dewey is back in where she can do some damage with the right post. She is no cinch, but you have to have her on the ticket. Hopefully something longer takes her down, but they might not. She doesn't appear to fit the race conditions, but she is in to go. She trotted away from these types easily last time.

6 P L Hercules jumped it off early last time, but qualified right back even though he didn't need to. He can handle these if he behaves and gets to ride the 5's back all the way. I'd use him in a race where its hard to discount many.

7 Our Mojo came out sharp off a layoff but then went off form just as fast. As he has aged, his once steady gait has left him more often. I will leave him off this time. He shows troubling signs of aging.

8 Hubby Number One is as variable as most of these. I don't like his form or his post being outside a few who want the front and wont give out favors, but if one or two of those run and this guy doesn't, he is sitting in the catbird seat.

9 April Rose goes 2nd off the claim for Henseley, and gets a break from the race office who upped the condition to let her in without taking the tag, allowing her to drop. She has a shot, like many do here.

RACE 9

1 Ohio Larry started out okay in the tough Ohio Sire Stakes last year, but didn't wear well, as can happen with foals of his sire if you push them early. He changed hands in the fall and shows up in Moreau's barn. I will pass on him this time. Moreau has not done well with these as of late. He had trouble keeping up with Chalky. Nuff said.

2 Talbot Romeo is a nice prospect, and might progress as the series continues, but he is a maiden with very few starts facing proven winners. This is a tough spot to break your maiden.

3 Many Facets won twice at 2, and then was shut down. Robinson is well known to bring race ready 3yo's here in the winter and then sell off some good lines. I don't like this one in this spot, but he will have to be seen. He is up against many who show better current form and are a year older. Those are factors.

4 Six Flags has come along okay for Tyrell, and isn't without a punchers chance here if others fail. He could be headed to better form and I'd think of using him here on that angle alone. He has to do more, a lot more, obviously.

5 Swellendam is a maiden facing a few who are nw3 or higher types. I cant see how he competes as is currently.

6 Big Yellow drew poorly and switched to this track last time, but paced a huge back half to be 2nd best. A repeat of that, with a better post this time and a slightly closer up trip gives him a big shot. Wallace is well known to peak horses and have them ready to roll when series appear.

7 Red John loses JJ to Big Yellow, and generally, he doesn't look ready to tackle tougher winners. He will probably develop, but this isnt a great spot for him to improve enough. He beat Southwind Savage by a nose. I don't like that reference at all. Pass.

8 Lyons Sands bombed out in the Valedictory final and has missed almost a month. He is a one trick pony whose tricks aren't going to keep playing at this level and with a tough post. I like others.

9 Sharky Shark is likely to be compromised by the tough post and he is about a second short on overall speed. Not that he cant make that up, but its unlikely he does it here. JJ went to the 6, so Billy Davis is in control. Pass but I'd like him next time if the factors improve for him.

10 Senior K would be very tough to go against if he had drawn better. He didn't. He is in the mix for sure, but maybe he is raced easier and aimed at a win next time for the final. I will go against him and roll the dice. He has been very hard raced at times. That is also likely to take its toll at some point.

RACE 10

1 Hot Spot Hanover was 2nd last time but catches a much deeper field than those, although the purse and conditions are similar. She will have to up it a notch or two to handle some of these.

2 Bet Ya  doesn't appear good enough for this level anymore. She seems to be a lot peppier when she hits bottom or close to it these days. Pass until then. She does win when she drops, and its a good gig for her.

3 Pop Goes Theweasel had great form for a while in late fall, but she has tailed off. She drops a line here and will get a big class relief bone next time. I will wait for that.

4 Lovethewayoulook  dropped and popped last time for Weller. She has not shown she can go with these though. I will pass.

5 Wanda Bayama moved up sharply last time and finished okay, but she is one of many at this level, not dominant like she was last year. She has a shot if things go her way. I'd use her if I have spots left to use. If not, I can go against her with others who look slightly better.

6 Kiwi Focus N  is a tough mare with deceptive good form. 10 hole did her in last time, but she draws the favored 6 hole here. I will call her in the minor upset.

7 Regally Ready  moves up without winning and has spotty form to boot. I like others. She will find the sweet spot again. Not here.

8 Dazzling Rockette mowed them down last time,but faces much tougher here. Its unlikely she can pass these with that move. Pass for me.

RACE 11

1 Barockey takes the drop, and looks for the pop. I will go against her, She has failed many times over the years in this exact scenario.

2 Maplelea had a very subpar year last year, but picks up Zeron, who was very good with her as a younger stakes filly. Maybe he knows what makes her tick and can wake her up. She is now 5, and a lot of them that race as hard as she did at 3 bomb at 4. She can turn that around at any time. Tonight could be that night.

3 Timmylynn drops down to where she won in her first start at this track. But, she gets Massey instead of J Mac, and that is a factor in what could be a drivers race. I will go to others. She is capable enough if the trip works out.

4 Naughty Lady B moves up without winning. and is not preferable to several others for me. She just doesn't do enough to win races most nights. Those types rarely win on a move up when they are marginal below.

5 Sing Like an Angel fits the level below, but doesn't race there tonight. That is curious, but nevertheless, she can get a piece here and still race there next week. I will pass on her. She is viable if you like her overall. I don't as a rule as it is.

6 Case Dismissed moves up off a decent win but loses McNair. I will pass on her. I think that was the level she needed to be competitive.

7 Drivingthedragon N gets lasix, which can certainly help her type, and she did show the type of speed you need for these when she first crossed the oceans. She is viable and you can make a case for her. Ryan is good with these and he can bring in  bombs. He uses Roy, who also seems to be able to get them off the wings fast, which is what she likes. She has competition for the front though, and that can do her in. I will go to others.

8 True Reflection is well known as a mare who doesn't win races she should. She has a poor post and is above where she wasn't winning anyway. Too many strikes for me.

9 Katies Beach takes a big class drop, but needs to. She isn't winning races and her form has declined. Post 9 is the clincher. Pass.

10 Miss Babe Delight is hard to like off a back of the bus type of start. Another day maybe. She would need a huge speed battle with several hung to set it up for her. That is hard to count on.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 12, 2016

Tonight we have the irresistible force meets immovable object in play. Garnet is of the opinion he can't win with Vanderkamp. He takes him on top, he loses. He leaves him off, he beats him. He has taken Free Willy Hanover on top in Race 2, I am listing him as a play against. What we have in play here is a possible GF for Garnet, and a possible antidote to that in my play against. Something has got to give this time. If logic plays out, he will be scratched before post time.


To summarize, I view these as the likely favorites, and I have separated them by play against or play, or, not play against but not plays either.

PLAY AGAINST

RACE 2     Free Willy Hanover

RACE 4  York Seelster

RACE 5  Catch the Dream 
RACE 6   Jenkins Creek 

PLAY

RACE 3  Windsun Revenge 

include but add others

RACE 1  Late Night
RACE 7  A Cool Card
RACE 8   Dirty Secret
RACE 9   Resistance Futile

My best exotic play, based on the way the races look to me is this: 

pick 3 Race 5

5)    3,4,5,6
6)    4,5,6,7,8
7)    1,3,5,7

80 combos. 
20c cost is $16

I might add the 9 in race 6 if I think he is worth doing that. Right now, I am rolling the dice against him. Its only a couple of bucks more for 20c. 

Its a big number to play for a pick 3, but its a high return ticket if it comes in. I am playing against at least 2 faves and possibly a 3rd, and not looking at the top 3 logical plays in race 6. It will pay off if it comes in. I'd play it for 20c. I'd think if I got it right, it pays $500 or 600 for a buck. 

If I were to get to race 7 live, I would probably start a 2nd pick 3 with some I left off that I was on the fence on, that would pay well if they beat me. That assumes I have big value locked up on the ones I took when I get there. I will discuss how I play that another day.

RACE 1

I'd use both the probable favorite and the newcomer in the pick 5 and that should get you to race 2.  I'm also keeping my eye on Luke And Duke, as I like his breeding and he might be one of those that matures a bit late and improves fast at this stage. Sir Galahad paced a huge 3rd quarter last time, but he looks a bit short of the better ones for the win slot. Not impossible though. You could add those two if you want to play it safe.

4 Late Night is the obvious favorite if the 3 doesn't take huge money on the first time move to Moreau. This one had to step up to tackle some tough ones while on a big roll, and he did okay, but now gets to drop back in with these. On paper he looks very tough to handle. He added a second very fast quarter to the 3rd one he usually paces. That makes him even more dominant if he can do that again. Last time, he floated out and took a hole, but was shuffled all the way out the back door and came home with the flow, but too far back to be dangerous. If he is as is, he should handle this group. I could see him being in the 6-5 or slightly higher range.

3 Big John Houn goes first time Moreau, and he shows fast speed winning at Dayton in 52 and change. He paces a fast 3rd quarter every time, but will need more at this track in the stretch to beat the types he will meet. That is Moreau's job to get it out of him. He has a shot, but Late Night looks tougher than him to this point.

RACE 2

I don't like the probable favorite for the win in this race, so I would leave him off, use my listed 2nd likely choice, and then pick 5 others. These types, you have to go deep. The consistency is just not there to narrow it down much more than that. No standouts here anyway.

2,3,5 and 7 in addition to Monopoly.

6 Free Willy Hanover broke his maiden last time, first out for Vanderkamp, and was no shock to the public who hammered him down to 2-5. He basically just sat outside them and moved when he felt like it, drawing off with ease. However, he was being chased and didn't look like he wanted to go more or had more in the tank. He is the likely favorite, but I think something from the pack takes him in this one. I will leave him off the pick tickets and play others. Probably looking at 8-5 or slightly higher here.

8 Monopoly is 8-1 ML, but I think he falls 2nd in line and is the most likely winner although no cinch. He has been keeping tougher company than many of these and holding his own, only picked off last last time after blasting to control mid race by a stakes winner with a bit of class.

RACE 3

3 Windsun Revenge  wired these last time and is the favorite, maybe even less than even money again. The way he drew off last time, he is very tough to go against. He should maintain his roll here. Something would have to step up and show what they haven't lately. That is possible based on what they have done before, but not likely based on what they are doing now.

RACE 4

Sometimes when you are going to go against the favorite, you have many options underneath, but nothing you love. So, in those cases, and this is one of them, I work only to exclude those I think have virtually no legit shot, and take anything else that could be the one. In real world betting, if you are playing large enough base amounts, you can just grade them and play higher weight on some than others.
Here is my list of excludes in this race, and why:

1 J Js Delivery switches to Allard, draws the rail and aborts conditions for a claimer. He is 2nd off a short layoff. There are just too many strikes against this one, namely his new trainers sub par performance, a rail start, a very poor season and form and a lack of current speed relative to most of this field.

4 Machapelo has looked sounder of late, and nabbed 2nd. He does move up here and there is a big difference between what he faced last time and what he meets here. I cant see him being viable. His 0 for 59 record tells me he has to be in pretty light to beat all of them.

5 Shock N Rock starts poorly as a rule. At best, he looks like a 15 claimer. Even in that, he is hard to take on top. He can drop a line here and get back in the bottom condition, which is most nights even softer than a 15. I will look for him next time, not in this spot.

7 Lonewolf Currier still needs some motivation to race, and while he has improved for Des, he was walking at the wire last time, drifting again. He seems to drift the week before he decides he doesn't want to race anymore. That is likely this week. Even if he does show up and try, he isn't doing enough to get more than a piece. When asked to cut the mile 2 back, he stopped to a walk.

8 York Seelster went down the road last time and had no intention of letting any of them get near him. He does that from time to time. That was his 2nd in a row in this class, each time a slightly higher tag. They go for the highest tag here, and he gets post 8 instead of post 6, which is a significant difference, especially for one like him that likes to gun and wing it on the chooch.

I think he goes down here as the chalk, probably 6-5 or even money.

Any of the rest will do and can.

That leaves 5. Don't really like any of them. Could be any one and the price would be reasonable to take out a good chunk of the pool.

RACE 5

Don't like the logical fave here. I will take 4 that have a shot if it works out for them to take it. 3,4,5,6. Post can have an effect and those are the 4 best posts, along with the 4 most likely if things go their way.

1 P L Hercules post will hurt him. He doesn't like to work for it.

2 A Rod Hall  FTL, but not FTMB. He is a pro at that. No thanks. Seen enough of his galloping off the gate act.

3 Mystery Bet runs hot and cold like a fickle girlfriend. Because of that, he has to be used. He could be great or galloping along with the other bad behavers.

4 Little Red Chev  has decent form and the right post and connections. Reasonable shot if the trip works out.

5 Zeus Lightning as good as any right now, and has handled this type when he is. Class is not a big issue on a slight rise.

6 Covert Operative has had 2 now over this track for his winter stay. He moves up a bit, but another who can go with better anyway when he keeps his act together. He had the rail last time, and that didn't favor his chances. Post 6 does. Shot.

7 Catch the Dream seems like he will be the fave based on his "back class" and that he is getting a better post, and hitting the ticket. I'm not impressed with his starts off the gate and being babied along. I will toss him and take my chances with a few others. If he somehow is sounder and smoother, he could easily blitz these. I will risk that he isn't. He probably draws 2-1, but could go as low as 7-5.

8 Grana Padanno wired a soft bunch last time, but makes a double jump in class and draws the 8 hole. Pass.

9 Ramas Last Son  wired them a step below, but got a 2nd quarter breather, moves back up here, gets the 9 hole and is up against it on many variables. Pass.

10 Our Mojo has come back from a layoff sharp, but moves up here and draws bad. Back of the bus, brush for a slice, pass for me.

RACE 6

I have trouble picking winners for this class. So, another leg I'd go very deep.

I don't like the rail horse, but I would play any of the others I haven't rated on the premise a cowboy rodeo occurs here and they kill each other off. No clue which of the remaining win, so I'd take them all. That means 4,5,6,7,8.

Either of these two could be the fave. I would have said the 3, but he finished so bad he might deter many from going to him. You can include me in that group.

2 Never Been Told dropped back and wired them last time, which is the style he loves. He has a few that wont let him have that here unless he wants to make them pay. He will pay too if he tries it. I think he is a solid 12. but Montini wants to hold on to him, so, I will go to others while he keeps him in the barn and wait until next week if he doesn't get it done here and has to go back down again.

3 Jenkins Creek drops back in where he is more dangerous, but has also been ground down by chasing and trying to go with a lot better than these. He isn't sound anyway, and it hurts one like this to be pushed that hard for a few weeks over his head. That pressure was too much and he jumped it off 3 back when he was home free and walked to the wire last time when the pace was too much. He has made 73 starts the last two years, and 44 already this year. He is a warrior, but he looks tired, lame and sore to me. I will go against him as either the favorite or close 2nd fave.

9 Crankin It Up has a very high ML, but I could see him even going off the fave off that last line, even though he takes a double jump in class. If he were that good again, he should handle this bunch, even from this post. If he could get a 2 hole trip behind whichever of the speed demons wants to cut this, he could pace away again. Or, he could leave out and this will be a rodeo with him riding shotgun and hung, and the inside ones controlling the track. In that scenario, any of the other 6 win it.

RACE 7

You could make very strong arguments against almost all of these, but only weak ones for a few. I will take the favorite, plus the 3 others I can justify with plausible excuses that could turn based on them. That means I use, 1,3,5,7.

5 A Cool Card dropped a big cheque off his bottom line and gets to dive in class here. Its hard to know if he was just racing well but over his head last time, or has lost form. He also missed a month between starts there. He is the favorite, and although I'm not fond of what I see, from him or Joe C. this winter, I'd have to use him. The drop is just too substantial and his times and fast quarters stack up here.

RACE 8

There are lots of options in a race like this. I will just avoid it. I could toss the 1 and 10 but use just about any of the rest. If you can find a single in any other leg, I'd suggest you do that. I don't see any singles on this side of the card, so its a no play race for me.

5 Dirty Secret comes in with 6 in a row and probably draws fave status over the 4, who is the better horse, but winless this year. They both love the front.

RACE 9

Some would make the case Resistance Futile is a single to go to here. If he were verifiably sound and had an experienced driver, he would be that. He isn't and doesn't. He should win, if he comes back as is and doesn't spot them 15 at the half like last time. He is beatable though. Long layoff horses don't always step up in start 2 like shorter layoff ones do. It sometimes takes them 3 or 4 to get the race legs under them. Your call. I wouldn't go against him either. 3,4,5 and 7 look like the ones to go to if you aren't singling the 6.

6 Resistance Futile was not raced with an eye to winning last time, but almost did anyway when he shook free and was going by the winner before he ran out of racetrack. I'd say you are looking at 2-5 here. There are reasons to think he is beatable, but they are reasons, not probabilities.

RACE 10

"This one is a bit of a head scratcher." -Garnet Barnsdale.

Yup. Pass on this race. Don't know who wins it, who is the fave, who is live. Good luck if you want to try. I don't. If you single Resistance Futile, take them all.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 10, 2016

To summarize, I view these as the likely favorites, and I have separated them by play against or play, or, not play against but not plays either.

PLAY AGAINST

RACE 1  9 Keegan Ho
RACE 3  8 Awesomeness
RACE 4  5 Think on It
RACE 6  4 Pink Pistol
RACE 7  7 Carracci Hanover
RACE 10  4 Dreamy Fella

PLAY

RACE 2  3 Killean Finale
RACE 8  3 D Gs Pesquero
RACE 9  5 Asap Hanover

include but add others.

RACE 5  3 American Virgin
RACE 11 1 Darcee N

My best exotic play, based on the way the races look to me is this:

Late pick 4----3/5/3,6,8/1,2,3,4,5,6

18 combos.

could also be played as a late double, which I might also do if I don't get the first two legs right.

RACE 1

This one is tough. I don't like the 9 for the win, but I could see the 10. I could also see the post position doing in both and creating a longshot. I could see any of 2,5,6 or 7 being that one. I'd use all 5 of them but not the 9.

9 Keegan Ho floated out last time and then sat a trip, slid out mid lane and then picked them all off. He did win 4 in a row before he went down 2 back, but they were soft easy trips, which he wont get from post 9 here. He has also been off a month. That isn't a big deal, but its a factor when you are going to be asked to rough it. He doesn't appear to have a blast move off the gate, so he isn't going to make front at this track from this post without parking a long way to get it. I'd go against him.

10 Sweet Royalty  went a big trip off the shelf last time. It looked like he only went as much as he had to, and Mario only urged him when they got near him. I would expect him to be tighter and a bit better here. Post 10 is always a worry, but there isn't much inside him to fear. He will be tough to take down and I wouldn't go against him if he is the chalk. If he is the fave, he is liable to be lukewarm as the 9 will take action.

RACE 2

3 Killean Finale was raced conservatively due to being a month between starts last time, but luckily found the right racing room and she paced strong to the wire for the win. She is back in the same class, and back in 8 days this time. She is very tough to go against and I wouldn't. I think Randy will be much more aggressive here. He usually is when he knows the horse is fit and looks best on paper. I dont see anything that beats her in this field. If the 10 had a better post and wasn't come off a layoff, I might think otherwise. She is not.

RACE 3

8 Awesomeness is on a big roll here and tough to go against. He seems to get better every time, which is what you want to see from a colt. He has his chief rival to his inside, but he beat him last time. His reliance on getting a trip is a bit troubling, and for that reason, I will call him to get beat somehow. We all know Randy will stay in when we think he should be out and going. That could be in play on this one. The goal is to make the final, and if he is 2nd in this leg, that only furthers that cause.

RACE 4

5 Think on It  was raced easy last week as he was in with tougher than he has faced before, or he meets here. The goal and target was obviously this series and to stay fit and sharp but not overworked to do so. I like the 2 horse better, and I could see others also stepping up, so I will call him to go down. Its hard to just keep winning at this level unless you tower over them. I don't think he does that.

RACE 5

I found it tough to find a standout favorite to go against. I could see the public picking any of 4. I will pick 3 to rate. The picks by Garnet and Rozema reflect that there is some confusion about this race. If you are playing the pick 4, I'd take all of them except for Vegas Rocks, Cool Rock, Mr Carrots and Daylight Rush and Company Man. That means you go 5 deep.

3 American Virgin  was Fillion's choice over the 10. Not any great surprise there. He certainly raced well in a very tough Preferred last week, and his soundness issues have also improved. He is no lock, but only one of many. I suspect he goes off the fave, and I'd only use him as one of many. Not one to try and beat, but not one who can really justify a win price under 2-1.

2 Mach Pride is in the zone right now. I don't think he will be post time favorite, but his very sharp form might sway enough to play him into that position. I know on his best day, at the top of his game, he can go with these. I thought he might have been past that point in his career, but he proved me wrong last week. He can leave like a shot, but will others coming for him here. If he can let one go, but follow him to the lane, he can pop back out. That is his shot.

5 Nirvana Seelster still seems flat and tired to me. He could take favorite money, but he shouldn't. Not that he cant turn it back around, but while this isn't the Preferred, it isn't a soft bunch either. If I were to remove one from my 6 deep strategy, he would be it. He isn't doing enough and it isn't just one week. He has some competition for control here.

RACE 6

4 Pink Pistol wired them last week and is the "now" horse. She has stakes class on her side, and seems to be sorted out. Garnet is listing her his best bet of the night, and Rozema makes a pretty confident call on her also. I could see her being 4-5 or less. She still has troubling signs on the page and didn't parade sound last week either. I would go against her and there are a few here who look capable if she runs or isn't as good as last week. I would take 6,7 and 9, but you could make a case for the 5 also.

RACE 7

7 Carracci Hanover is the probable lukewarm fave. Didn't like what I saw from him 2 back, and didn't like anything better last time. He looks like a candidate to sink all the way to rock bottom before he works his way back up. We see that a lot in the winter with some that race a long season.

4 Paparazzi Hanover looks logical enough on the slight class drop and decent post. He doesnt strike me as that much better than many though, just one that had a good week last time. I think he is 2nd fave, but even if he is the fave, I'd go against him and the one I list as the probable fave.

I'd think Three of Clubs is the one to go to, but you could make a case in a race like this to take all 8 of the ones left and hope for the bomb.

RACE 8

Garnet likes my pick here, but he is going 4 deep. I would single her. Lets see how it  plays out.

3 D Gs Pesquero  is listed as 2nd ML, but she clearly looks like the post time favorite to me. She was forced into the Preferred where she was over her head, and took her medicine for two starts. She now gets back in the class she dominated the last time she was there, and gets a solid post. Garnet and Rozema both give her very favorable recommendations. Count me as the 3rd of those. I don't see her going down and she is the most likely favorite on the card to come through.

RACE 9

5 Asap Hanover went a monster half on the engine last week and paid for it in the lane. I expect him to leave as hard, but look to let one go this week. I think he will turns the tables and at a decent price. He is probably 5-2 or 3-1, and a very lukewarm favorite. But, I would think he gets it done.

4 Trashytonguetalker  could take favorite money even though he has a high ML and moves up a level off a narrow win. He impressed many and Weller has gotten the bettors attention the last two seasons. These are much tougher. I think he is short on class to the probable favorite.

RACE 10

4 Dreamy Fella is the 4th ML choice, but he looks like he could be the fave here. He meets a mixed bag, and has consistent form for the team of Weller and Henry, who the bettors love. I could see him, but only as one of many in a pretty wide open and contentious dash. When I see a favorite as one of many, I go against them. I'd rather have price value on my side.

3 Quick Fun N made an impressive blast move and opened up last time, only to get a shade wobbly at the wire. He did hold on, and was 5 weeks out of the box for that start. He gets in this race on a special condition, and he also could be the favorite.
I still like him, but not as much as last week. He is one of many in here.

RACE 11

Any of the inside 3 could go off a 7-2 favorite. I only know the ones outside them don't look like favorite candidates. You could make a case against any of these, and one for many of them. That type of class, as usual. I'd just toss anything I think can be tossed, and take all the rest, and hope I get the earlier legs right and get something of a price in this one. I wouldn't even attempt to call an outright winner.

1 Darcee N is the consensus pick if you look at Garnet's and Rozema's comments and selections. I find it hard to back him. Post 1 can hurt one like this.

2 Rise Up Now is hard to take based on what he has turned into this year, which is mostly a chalk burner like in his last two. I wouldn't play him. I'd rather roll the dice and use his multi race slot with a longshot who might have a good night.

3 Single White Sock gets marginal class relief but also is 4 for 50 the last two years.

WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 9, 2016

RACE 1

1 Howmacscanasta blasted out for the lead from the advantageous post 6 and cut the mile to the far turn, when she was challenged and beat into submission. She packed it in completely coming out of the turn. I don't see enough from her to suggest she is a player tonight. She is probably looking at the nw last 3 class at London after this tilt unless she turns it around. I will watch her to see if she is viable with those. She does have very good gate speed, and that will play at that track.

2 Charming Hill avoids Bring Me Diamonds and Miss Jones Shooter here. She also draws a good post for the trip she likes----leave out and be up close, stay in a long way, and find a live helmet to carry her and break the wind. She is a player for a price in with these.

3 Glory Jean  was backing away badly last week at the half off a soft rail ride. I have to see something positive before I consider her viable.

4 Sr Beach Babe is yet to race on this circuit, and now has missed a month off some sickness. None of that is good.  Its a bit suspicious to me that she was entered for nw3 and then sick and now comes back healthy, one would assume, in a bottom conditioned claimer. I have to see her parade. I'm inclined to toss her.

5 Sand Slinger  drew the 2 hole last week in her first start on the circuit after also missing more than a month. She tried to leave, but post 2 can be a really bad post at this track, especially if the 1 horse leaves enough to make you take back and you cant clear that one. That is what happened. J Mac took back, and then wisely let the eventual winner in front of him so he would have live cover when he came back out to make a bid. She tried to go with that one, and was right on her helmet until she stepped on the gas and this one was left behind. She did pace hard to the wire, and has a bit of grit. I could list her as short last week and a victim of her post to some extent. She is a very viable longshot here in my eyes. J Mac goes to Nixon's one, so P Mac picks up the mount.

6 Sobeautifulsowhat  did not impress me in her qualifier and her race lines are weak to be diplomatic. She is a homebred and has been through Virgil Morgan's barn. There aren't many out there better than him with this kind of horse. Pass for me.

7 Boozer Bruiser cannot be used from what I've seen of her. I will wait to see some evidence she is returning to the type she was last year where she could compete with this kind off the right trip. I don't see anything yet.

8 Nips Beach Girl  left out hard last week in her first try at this track, got away well, pulled first up, buried the leader, but gave cover to the live winner on her back and was beat to the wire by that one, who is razor sharp lately. She looks tough on paper and is the likely favorite, but no cinch. I'd use her in the exotics, but others also. Her last quarters are consistently a shade weak for a winner generally. Post does not help when JJ will have to use her hard once to get the lead if that is the plan. Allard took the lower tag this week, but still got the short end of the post position draw stick.

9 Howmacfiesty changes barns as her trainer is suspended for cheating. I will have to see her on the track. Post 9 likely deters me from using her. It did her in at Flamboro as well.

10 Acefourtyfour Alex is the only one to take the high tag, and gets post 10. She is up against it for the win with that in play. I'd think she can make the ticket, but I will roll the dice against her for the picks.

RACE 2

1 Hot Spot Hanover had some tough luck last time, as she wanted the lead, but was forced to go back in the 2 hole, then pinned in the rest of the way, trying to come up the rail but shut off near the wire. Post 1 likely means she will not get control again. She has been a very consistent and sometimes dominant force in the fall and into the start of winter. She has also been facing and beating or competing well against far better than all of these have. I think she is ripe to go down off some sort of trip problem, but I'd have to use her in anything multi race. Post 1 can get her beat here, and Fillion is making a lot of tactical mistakes since they have come to Woodbine. That is a factor in my mind until he gets his act back together.

2 Norcross Blue Chip is making a huge class jump to tackle some of these, but she has stepped up before. Her fast record was taken this year at Mohawk, and she has won her last two with decent posts. I hesitate to leave her off any exotics, but I probably will. She might be raced to get a decent showing towards making the final. If she does show she is one of the players in the series, I could be convinced to start using her towards the next leg and final .

3 Shooteronbye doesn't look like she has the class or speed to go with the better ones in here. I will pass. She will have to change my mind and do something she does not show on the page.

4 Marvalous Jet was a solid 2nd off a month off last time, and she has a fine record of winning races. She looks like the one to take down the chalk if that is going to play out. She will need more speed this time, but has showed it already in the States.

5 Queenofthejungle  is 1 for 30 and looks over her head for the win slot in this race. She can certainly pick up money though. She is very good at that. Her final quarters are consistently not good enough.

6 Misty De Vie has progressed rapidly this winter. You see a few each year that do that. She has put it together. However, she continues to start very slow, and its not as easy to pass winners, and then winners of nw2, or nw3, who also could have beaten her soundly on the way up the ladder with her. The rail horse has beaten her soundly 3 times on the page. I cant see her beating that one to the wire. Pass.

7 Docs Diva has made 2 gate breaks in the last 3 starts and gets a barn change. She has earned a solid buck this year by making a lot of starts and picking up shares. She is hard to like off her current form. Pass.

8 Icthelight Hanover makes her 2nd start for Zeron, and that is a potent angle to consider. If I was to go to a 3rd one in this race for the exotics, she'd likely be the one. Post 8 is an issue. I'd probably roll the dice against her this time because of that added obstacle. It could come back to bite me. It's a gamble.

RACE 3

1 Willyorwonthe  looked like a nice colt prospect at times last year, but he began to make breaks and he has continued that spotty form this year. He is 2nd time lasix  and picks up Saftic on his return here, but gets the rail. In a race where most, including me would go very deep in the pick 5, I'd be inclined to add him to the list. He will be a big price, but he is not impossible.

2 Rule of Hall changes barns to Dagfin, which obviously gets your attention. For that reason, and that one only, I will add her. She hasn't shown me yet a reason to think that wont make any difference. Maybe she does that tonight. Or maybe she turns on a dime, like Odds On Amethyst did for Dagfin when he got him. She took a fast win at Pocono when she is right. Odds On Amethyst also had a fast record and a whack of bad lines and issues when he arrived too. Beware.

3 Facing Justice made an interesting post parade appearance last week, coming out on a full gallop and doing that much of the time before the race. He was all business when they raced though, and many Justice Hall's are like that. Many also just gallop and never stop. He shows no lines to that effect, but he also shows 1 win in 2 years racing, at Miami Valley in the slop on a night when many probably weren't viable. I counted 5 others I want to use ahead of him. I'm on the fence if he should be the 6th one in addition to them.

4 Dunvegan Don didnt have the year that was expected of him at 3, and never won a race. That happens to many of his kind. Holland is a very low percentage trainer, as you can see by his average. He has burned the chalk players two times in a row at Flamboro, and his last quarters are just not good enough. He is one I will leave off and take my chances. He looks like the type that finds ways to lose but gets bet on his bank account and company he has kept.

5 Justice Jet  has high speed and wins lots of races, but also is very prone to blow up, like many of these. I'd have to use him. On his best day and behavior, he would daylight most of these. You could argue his last 3 posts for purses were not favorable. Two times trailing at Yonkers, and the 6 hole at Saratoga.

6 Hubby Number One finally gets post relief and a class drop. Add that to post 6, which favors his style if he can keep it together, and he is an automatic use in the exotics. He is no cinch though. He is prone to blow up at any time if he isn't exactly right and the track is off even a shade.

7 Stormont Wizard  missed a month between starts last week, and also hooked at least one class dropper and others who had okay form lately. He did okay enough and is a player with this suspect mixed bag of non performers and wannabe's.

8 Stuarts Dynasty draws poorly for the 3rd time in a row. He is hard to like off those lines and breaks. His low amount of starts is also an issue to consider. He has issues. I will pass on him here.

9 Steppin Out qualified last week, although it appears she did not have to. That is curious. Because of her preferred style and her post tonight, along with bad form and some sickness, she is one I wont include in a race I could make a case to include a lot of them.

10 Scary Good total pass for me. I see nothing to suggest he is dangerous here from the 10 hole. He'd have to be a monster price on form and post position. It couldn't be high enough to tempt me.

RACE 4

1 Request for Parole was a very early scratch out of the Preferred last time, and gets some class relief here. But, she is meeting most of the ones she would if that class went this week, less the dominant winner last time. I think she is at least one step over her head.

2 Waasmula has paced 2 really good miles in her last 2. Last week, it just wasn't enough. The week before it was. I suppose she is in the mix, but I will go to others.

3 Wrangler Magic accepted the pocket last week, for once but was no match for the dominant winner. She did beat the rest easily and thus has to be considered a top contender here......if......she doesn't try to cut it and take on all comers. Fillion has been prone to let others do the work the last week or so. If he sticks to that, she has a shot to pop the pocket this time and get there first. She needs every edge to beat these, but she can certainly do that. Her post is very favorable to her style tonight.

4 Yagonnakissmeornot doesn't seem to leave well of late, and last time she was buried in traffic and had no hope. She could upset the apple cart, as it seems happens a lot in this class when so many are so close in talent, ability, form and chance. I'd probably use her in the picks. She will have to do better. Obviously, she has a career license to be able to do that.

5 Delightful Hill  is just not getting it done. She is one who can stay in this class if the Preferred goes next time. Avoiding most of these is probably the right recipe for her to blast off and go full bore the entire mile. In with these, I will pass.

6 Ms Mac N Cheese skipped last week, and Fillion picks against her here. I will as well. She is not doing enough to sway me...yet.

7 Imagine Dragon  did nothing from post 8 last week, and didn't get it done the two times before that. She is possible, but I like others. She doesn't come to play every week. I will bank on that being enough to exclude her.

8 Sayitall Bb  takes a sharp class rise and draws the 8 hole. She looks overmatched with these. If it had not been a Preferred in disguise, I'd like her better. Much the same idea as the 5 in here.

RACE 5

1 True Reflection is hard to like with her penchant to not try and the likely mid pack start this post will deliver. She was passed easily by one who had weak form last time and was 2nd best to her. I will take my chances that she continues to find a way to not be first to the wire. Trevor picked Weller's over her.

2 Velocity Reign  goes first time Weller, but unlike many we have seen come in lately to him, she isn't a young project horse, but an underperforming class mover type. Just the type he can wake up with his formula and make them step up like he has done with Dreamy Fella and Maserati Seelster. I would think she is going down the road here if she has the gate speed to pull that off. She showed that on her bottom line at Dayton, but couldn't sustain. That is where Weller comes in.

3 Whistys Paradise gets some class relief, but has horrid form and is making breaks. She is tough as nails, but I will stick to my assessment that she should be in the 10 claimer. I will play against her making me eat those words.

4 Docs Hollywood  takes a slight class drop, and that is certainly a factor. But, she wasn't winning when she was in with these. I rate her a shot. She has woken up sharply before without much notice, and If I recall correctly, it was with Fillion. Her 1 for 35 record this year is troubling.

5 Shadys M Three looked sounder last week and raced better. She is one of those that will be okay and viable when she happens to be sounder. That isn't often these days, but when it is, she has to be considered a threat. You don't get that visual post parade option for the pick 4, but as a straight win bet, you can look her over parading. If she is good, she is a value play if the odds reflect her 2 for 67 record over the last 2 seasons.

6 Topville Cheetah wired them in 56 and change at Flamboro last time, minus two seconds for the slop. That has to be respected. She is very much a streak horse. Right now, she could be on the front end of the streak. Have to use her in with this bunch. Post 6 gives her the potential start she likes.

7 Three Dreams dropped the line as expected and now hits bottom. The post is a bit better, and Cullen has had her for a month now and for 2 race starts. She has a shot, like a lot do in here.

8 Mappos Moenhay went sharply off form in a cheap claimer at Hoosier and was laid off. She is very prone to do that, then comes back fresh and more viable. Due to post 8, I will just watch her tonight and see what she brings to the table. She could be in for 8 next week, and those are more her kind. At 74 starts the last two seasons, she had reason to need rest. She is now rested...and we will see how ready.

9 Ainsleynoelle draws poorly again, and also was interfered with last week. She is hard to like on form, even with the excuses you could come up with if you looked the page over. That does make her dangerous, but I will go to others and take my chances.

10 Wildcat Beauty habitually does not do good from far outside posts, in any class, even on a drop back to where she has been okay recently. In my mind, it has to be something else in this race. She could get on the ticket if she takes back and follows a live flow. Probably wont get her all the way even if that plays out.

RACE 6

1 Entranced wired a weak bunch...barely, but now moves up and draws the rail, which hasn't worked out for him lately. I will go to others. He is the class mover type now, and this is the move up, not down.

2 E L Rock ships in with decent form, and he has won many races at this track, and others. But, he is probably better suited for the bottom condition. Unfortunately, he won his last race and doesn't fit that. Pass for me. Too many others to like ahead of him.

3 Utopia  is 3rd off the claim for Moreau, and he sent him to Flamboro to take a nice purse last time, which he did. Now he is tagged again, but draws much better than the previous attempt. That gives him a big shot if he is good to go. He sometimes shows up dog lame, so you have to watch that. If he is right, he is a top contender.

4 Totally Ripped  just doesn't quite do enough in this class, but is better one step down. Doesn't mean he cant though. Its not a huge difference between the two, and many move back and forth. I give him a longshot chance if every trip angle goes his way, and against others.

5 Eternal Quest  another B track shipper looking to convert good form there into a better shot here. I'd have a hard time listing him a shot even at the bottom condition here. His overall times don't stack up. Pass.

6 Its Huw You Know  takes a big class drop, but is the buyer beware type. He can just beat himself before he even gets started. I will take a stand against him and play a few others for the pick 4. He is more likely to bomb than behave.

7 Lexus Rocky I suppose is possible, but he would have to show up, get the right trip, and have others not do both of those. I will not bank on that. One level down, I'd think that is more possible. A lot of ones in here probably think they have a shot, and will be leaving hard. That means he has to work hard on the rim to get around them. He has not showed he likes doing that.

8 Harper Blue Chip  I will continue to pass on. He just doesn't look right, and he takes money solely on his previous career as a top notch colt. He isn't anywhere close to that horse anymore.

9 Burnin Money picks up another bad post. Going to the back of the bus isn't something that enhances his chances, and his form is not great either. He always comes back around. I will watch for that and wait for a better post to make use of it.

10 Duh Bubbees drops sharply in class, but that gets negated by the post he draws. I will pass. He doesn't look like the gritty type that overcomes the worst post at this track.

RACE 7

1 Dorabella nipped a very green maiden coming off a long layoff, and bunch behind her who are not much stock. She now has to face winners, with much better form than her.

2 Drift Panic will have to be seen. Soundness might be an issue here, but with these types, they can be fixed up and start performing as most expect they should. If she were to impress me in the post parade, I might go to her.

3 Sportsillustrator picked up a slice last week as most of them were on their hands and knees down the lane, including the winner and 2nd place horse. I don't like the way this one travels, and generally those types have trouble in straight conditioned races with others that look to have an upwardly mobile future. Pass.

4 I Wish You Well had her own way last time, but was easily mowed down by one who followed her all the way and she meets her again. She could turn the tables, and I think has a shot to do so. Those two seem to have a big edge on the rest of this bunch.

5 Life Groove is 2 for 35 life, and rarely as dangerous at this track as she was 2 back. She took her shot that night. I'm not certain she comes to play every week and can compete with the better ones, unless....both of those dont show up or have some horrid trip luck go against them.

6 Zealous Seelster doesn't look viable in conditions at this track to me. She never has. Decent B track horse. Maybe she ages into a solid bottom claimer next year at this track.

7 Seven Angels cant handle maidens at this track. Nuff said.

8 Casimir Operaqueen is likely to be sent out of there again to control her own destiny. If Luc doesn't want to retake she will have to cut it and fend off any pretender that wants to run at her. Will she have enough left if she is asked to work harder this time? I don't know. She does seem determined to pace right to the wire. Your call. I'm on the fence and think it could be either of the top 2 from last time.

9 Collective Wisdom gets some class relief here, and that is a big help. But drawing the 9 hole with a few that want the lead means she is up against a bias in this one. She leaves, she has to be used hard to get the lead and will be attacked. She takes back, she has a lot of road trouble with those that are more likely to be dead cover or roadblocks than a live tow in a decent flow. Only if one of my top 2 run before the gate and don't make it to the first turn. If that happened, the trip scenario completely changes. Neither look like that type.

10 Poetic Dream  draws the 10 hole again. Shit luck for her. Lets see if she can stick a bit closer in the lane this time. Not tonight for me.

RACE 8

1 Docs Sausalito  has developed into a solid mare over the course of the year, and arrives in the Niagara at the right time to take advantage of her improved form and experience. She doesn't need the lead, so the post might not hurt her as much as some. A smaller field means she can not be used hard early and she can pick up cover and save her one potent late move for when it matters. Big shot.

2 Dewar N Soda can certainly get an easier trip here. But she is way over her head with a few of these as I see her.

3 P L Jasmine  is a consistently poor starter who looks about 2 classes behind the top contenders in here. I think she will come around and find a level, but this isn't it. Big longshot.

4 Never Any Doubt  missed a month, then just went around last week, obviously with an eye to this engagement coming up. She looked to be setting up a big try to win the Autumn Final, but she also bears out bad at times late in the mile. She is possible, but others seem to be just a bit better at this moment. That could easily change. Contender.

5 Tempus Seelster  drew post 10 last time and brushed with the pack. Another who was raced easy with the eye to the start of this series. The post favors her here, and this split is pretty soft. I'd think Zeron will take his shot to try and win this week, knowing he is probably going to hook one of the two very viable players in the earlier split next week. She isn't my favorite type, but she isn't meeting a tough bunch here either. I'd call her 3rd, but I expect her to effect the outcome.

6 Art Angel Baby  has terrible form, and will have to be seen parading. These types of shippers can really hurt you if you toss them outright without at least looking them over on a track and barn change. She dominated at Saratoga, but Yonkers didn't work out. Something went wrong. It could easily start going right again. Possible upsetter if I like what I see.

7 Jimbelina  wired a weak bunch last week but she did it well. If she can get that start again and find one to cover her up, she isn't impossible. I like a couple of others, but I'd suggest her as likely enough to add to the pick 4.

8 Stonebridge Pearl  needed to go to Plainridge to get a win. That is a pass for me when I see that. She has not beaten anything else all year, and her lone win at 2 was at Grand River. Essentially, she is an A track maiden meeting some who would be tough in nw3. Pass.