WEG Handicapping and Betting, Notes and Comments: December 12, 2016

Tonight we have the irresistible force meets immovable object in play. Garnet is of the opinion he can't win with Vanderkamp. He takes him on top, he loses. He leaves him off, he beats him. He has taken Free Willy Hanover on top in Race 2, I am listing him as a play against. What we have in play here is a possible GF for Garnet, and a possible antidote to that in my play against. Something has got to give this time. If logic plays out, he will be scratched before post time.


To summarize, I view these as the likely favorites, and I have separated them by play against or play, or, not play against but not plays either.

PLAY AGAINST

RACE 2     Free Willy Hanover

RACE 4  York Seelster

RACE 5  Catch the Dream 
RACE 6   Jenkins Creek 

PLAY

RACE 3  Windsun Revenge 

include but add others

RACE 1  Late Night
RACE 7  A Cool Card
RACE 8   Dirty Secret
RACE 9   Resistance Futile

My best exotic play, based on the way the races look to me is this: 

pick 3 Race 5

5)    3,4,5,6
6)    4,5,6,7,8
7)    1,3,5,7

80 combos. 
20c cost is $16

I might add the 9 in race 6 if I think he is worth doing that. Right now, I am rolling the dice against him. Its only a couple of bucks more for 20c. 

Its a big number to play for a pick 3, but its a high return ticket if it comes in. I am playing against at least 2 faves and possibly a 3rd, and not looking at the top 3 logical plays in race 6. It will pay off if it comes in. I'd play it for 20c. I'd think if I got it right, it pays $500 or 600 for a buck. 

If I were to get to race 7 live, I would probably start a 2nd pick 3 with some I left off that I was on the fence on, that would pay well if they beat me. That assumes I have big value locked up on the ones I took when I get there. I will discuss how I play that another day.

RACE 1

I'd use both the probable favorite and the newcomer in the pick 5 and that should get you to race 2.  I'm also keeping my eye on Luke And Duke, as I like his breeding and he might be one of those that matures a bit late and improves fast at this stage. Sir Galahad paced a huge 3rd quarter last time, but he looks a bit short of the better ones for the win slot. Not impossible though. You could add those two if you want to play it safe.

4 Late Night is the obvious favorite if the 3 doesn't take huge money on the first time move to Moreau. This one had to step up to tackle some tough ones while on a big roll, and he did okay, but now gets to drop back in with these. On paper he looks very tough to handle. He added a second very fast quarter to the 3rd one he usually paces. That makes him even more dominant if he can do that again. Last time, he floated out and took a hole, but was shuffled all the way out the back door and came home with the flow, but too far back to be dangerous. If he is as is, he should handle this group. I could see him being in the 6-5 or slightly higher range.

3 Big John Houn goes first time Moreau, and he shows fast speed winning at Dayton in 52 and change. He paces a fast 3rd quarter every time, but will need more at this track in the stretch to beat the types he will meet. That is Moreau's job to get it out of him. He has a shot, but Late Night looks tougher than him to this point.

RACE 2

I don't like the probable favorite for the win in this race, so I would leave him off, use my listed 2nd likely choice, and then pick 5 others. These types, you have to go deep. The consistency is just not there to narrow it down much more than that. No standouts here anyway.

2,3,5 and 7 in addition to Monopoly.

6 Free Willy Hanover broke his maiden last time, first out for Vanderkamp, and was no shock to the public who hammered him down to 2-5. He basically just sat outside them and moved when he felt like it, drawing off with ease. However, he was being chased and didn't look like he wanted to go more or had more in the tank. He is the likely favorite, but I think something from the pack takes him in this one. I will leave him off the pick tickets and play others. Probably looking at 8-5 or slightly higher here.

8 Monopoly is 8-1 ML, but I think he falls 2nd in line and is the most likely winner although no cinch. He has been keeping tougher company than many of these and holding his own, only picked off last last time after blasting to control mid race by a stakes winner with a bit of class.

RACE 3

3 Windsun Revenge  wired these last time and is the favorite, maybe even less than even money again. The way he drew off last time, he is very tough to go against. He should maintain his roll here. Something would have to step up and show what they haven't lately. That is possible based on what they have done before, but not likely based on what they are doing now.

RACE 4

Sometimes when you are going to go against the favorite, you have many options underneath, but nothing you love. So, in those cases, and this is one of them, I work only to exclude those I think have virtually no legit shot, and take anything else that could be the one. In real world betting, if you are playing large enough base amounts, you can just grade them and play higher weight on some than others.
Here is my list of excludes in this race, and why:

1 J Js Delivery switches to Allard, draws the rail and aborts conditions for a claimer. He is 2nd off a short layoff. There are just too many strikes against this one, namely his new trainers sub par performance, a rail start, a very poor season and form and a lack of current speed relative to most of this field.

4 Machapelo has looked sounder of late, and nabbed 2nd. He does move up here and there is a big difference between what he faced last time and what he meets here. I cant see him being viable. His 0 for 59 record tells me he has to be in pretty light to beat all of them.

5 Shock N Rock starts poorly as a rule. At best, he looks like a 15 claimer. Even in that, he is hard to take on top. He can drop a line here and get back in the bottom condition, which is most nights even softer than a 15. I will look for him next time, not in this spot.

7 Lonewolf Currier still needs some motivation to race, and while he has improved for Des, he was walking at the wire last time, drifting again. He seems to drift the week before he decides he doesn't want to race anymore. That is likely this week. Even if he does show up and try, he isn't doing enough to get more than a piece. When asked to cut the mile 2 back, he stopped to a walk.

8 York Seelster went down the road last time and had no intention of letting any of them get near him. He does that from time to time. That was his 2nd in a row in this class, each time a slightly higher tag. They go for the highest tag here, and he gets post 8 instead of post 6, which is a significant difference, especially for one like him that likes to gun and wing it on the chooch.

I think he goes down here as the chalk, probably 6-5 or even money.

Any of the rest will do and can.

That leaves 5. Don't really like any of them. Could be any one and the price would be reasonable to take out a good chunk of the pool.

RACE 5

Don't like the logical fave here. I will take 4 that have a shot if it works out for them to take it. 3,4,5,6. Post can have an effect and those are the 4 best posts, along with the 4 most likely if things go their way.

1 P L Hercules post will hurt him. He doesn't like to work for it.

2 A Rod Hall  FTL, but not FTMB. He is a pro at that. No thanks. Seen enough of his galloping off the gate act.

3 Mystery Bet runs hot and cold like a fickle girlfriend. Because of that, he has to be used. He could be great or galloping along with the other bad behavers.

4 Little Red Chev  has decent form and the right post and connections. Reasonable shot if the trip works out.

5 Zeus Lightning as good as any right now, and has handled this type when he is. Class is not a big issue on a slight rise.

6 Covert Operative has had 2 now over this track for his winter stay. He moves up a bit, but another who can go with better anyway when he keeps his act together. He had the rail last time, and that didn't favor his chances. Post 6 does. Shot.

7 Catch the Dream seems like he will be the fave based on his "back class" and that he is getting a better post, and hitting the ticket. I'm not impressed with his starts off the gate and being babied along. I will toss him and take my chances with a few others. If he somehow is sounder and smoother, he could easily blitz these. I will risk that he isn't. He probably draws 2-1, but could go as low as 7-5.

8 Grana Padanno wired a soft bunch last time, but makes a double jump in class and draws the 8 hole. Pass.

9 Ramas Last Son  wired them a step below, but got a 2nd quarter breather, moves back up here, gets the 9 hole and is up against it on many variables. Pass.

10 Our Mojo has come back from a layoff sharp, but moves up here and draws bad. Back of the bus, brush for a slice, pass for me.

RACE 6

I have trouble picking winners for this class. So, another leg I'd go very deep.

I don't like the rail horse, but I would play any of the others I haven't rated on the premise a cowboy rodeo occurs here and they kill each other off. No clue which of the remaining win, so I'd take them all. That means 4,5,6,7,8.

Either of these two could be the fave. I would have said the 3, but he finished so bad he might deter many from going to him. You can include me in that group.

2 Never Been Told dropped back and wired them last time, which is the style he loves. He has a few that wont let him have that here unless he wants to make them pay. He will pay too if he tries it. I think he is a solid 12. but Montini wants to hold on to him, so, I will go to others while he keeps him in the barn and wait until next week if he doesn't get it done here and has to go back down again.

3 Jenkins Creek drops back in where he is more dangerous, but has also been ground down by chasing and trying to go with a lot better than these. He isn't sound anyway, and it hurts one like this to be pushed that hard for a few weeks over his head. That pressure was too much and he jumped it off 3 back when he was home free and walked to the wire last time when the pace was too much. He has made 73 starts the last two years, and 44 already this year. He is a warrior, but he looks tired, lame and sore to me. I will go against him as either the favorite or close 2nd fave.

9 Crankin It Up has a very high ML, but I could see him even going off the fave off that last line, even though he takes a double jump in class. If he were that good again, he should handle this bunch, even from this post. If he could get a 2 hole trip behind whichever of the speed demons wants to cut this, he could pace away again. Or, he could leave out and this will be a rodeo with him riding shotgun and hung, and the inside ones controlling the track. In that scenario, any of the other 6 win it.

RACE 7

You could make very strong arguments against almost all of these, but only weak ones for a few. I will take the favorite, plus the 3 others I can justify with plausible excuses that could turn based on them. That means I use, 1,3,5,7.

5 A Cool Card dropped a big cheque off his bottom line and gets to dive in class here. Its hard to know if he was just racing well but over his head last time, or has lost form. He also missed a month between starts there. He is the favorite, and although I'm not fond of what I see, from him or Joe C. this winter, I'd have to use him. The drop is just too substantial and his times and fast quarters stack up here.

RACE 8

There are lots of options in a race like this. I will just avoid it. I could toss the 1 and 10 but use just about any of the rest. If you can find a single in any other leg, I'd suggest you do that. I don't see any singles on this side of the card, so its a no play race for me.

5 Dirty Secret comes in with 6 in a row and probably draws fave status over the 4, who is the better horse, but winless this year. They both love the front.

RACE 9

Some would make the case Resistance Futile is a single to go to here. If he were verifiably sound and had an experienced driver, he would be that. He isn't and doesn't. He should win, if he comes back as is and doesn't spot them 15 at the half like last time. He is beatable though. Long layoff horses don't always step up in start 2 like shorter layoff ones do. It sometimes takes them 3 or 4 to get the race legs under them. Your call. I wouldn't go against him either. 3,4,5 and 7 look like the ones to go to if you aren't singling the 6.

6 Resistance Futile was not raced with an eye to winning last time, but almost did anyway when he shook free and was going by the winner before he ran out of racetrack. I'd say you are looking at 2-5 here. There are reasons to think he is beatable, but they are reasons, not probabilities.

RACE 10

"This one is a bit of a head scratcher." -Garnet Barnsdale.

Yup. Pass on this race. Don't know who wins it, who is the fave, who is live. Good luck if you want to try. I don't. If you single Resistance Futile, take them all.