Some thoughts.
The delicate balance of picking straight winners vs. picking better value on top. What is the goal? What is my goal?
Basically, for me, it just comes down to making money and math, and both of those thoughts are based on 43 years of experience.
When we first experience racing, we are taught to pick winners. I was. I would stand in line at Greenwood or Mohawk, with likely 2 to 3 potential winners and pick the one that was most likely to win. Cashing was king back then. I would pick 3 to 4 winners on average on every 10 race card, but likely lose money with 2 of those paying very short returns.
I avoid that strategy now. Picking a horse on top now consists of believing it can win and that the price will be favorable. In many cases, that means that a horse that is more likely to win, like Upgrade on this card, Delightful Yankee on Monday, and there are other examples, I don't pick on top.
On Monday, I picked Rico Tubbs in Delightful Yankee's race. Rico Tubbs went off at a nice 13-1 overlay and was a solid 2nd. There are lots of things that could have happened to Delightful Yankee to get her beat at 3-5. She was a 2nd time starter, moving up in class. She could have bounced. She could have been raced easy and been too late. Rico Tubbs could have gotten closer to the pace and tracked her down. She is a young inexperienced trotter, she simply could have jumped and made a mistake. At 3-5, I will lose more money consistently betting on her to win, even when she is the most likely winner. At 13-1, I will get a Rico Tubbs maybe 2 out of 10 times, which means for my $20 I will get back $52. Of course, you cant just go off and bet no hope longshots. You have to have something to go on. That is where I hope my years of experience and skill come in. Who to pick and when to take my shot.
On Monday, of the 5 races I rated, I had two winners on top out of 5. So, for the $10 that cost me, I returned $20.70, and that was without getting Rico Tubbs home. The Hitman Heart came through, and Hercules was up in time at a ridiculous 9-2, which was a massive overlay. While I went against Delightful Yankee, I still liked her. I didn't like Charlie Cheeks or Wolfpack Crown and I stated clearly up front why that was. Generally, I need 1 of 5 to come home even, while 2 of 5 while provide a nice profit, and 3 of 5 will mean going home with cash in my pocket for next time.
Sometimes the bettors get it right and Hercules goes off at 8-5, which is what I expected. That I cant know or control. You just have to accept it will happen sometimes and other times it wont.
Heavy chalks are very easy to predict for odds. Legit contenders behind them are a bit of a crapshoot. Finding live contenders behind the heavy chalks is the key part.
I will put Upgrade 2nd today. For that very reason. I think Press on Ballykeel is a legit contender and should bring a price, I would guess 4-1 to 6-1. Upgrade, at likely 3-5, win lose or draw, is a losing bet almost all the time, even if she does beat me tonight.
Race 2
5 Press On Ballykeel shot, better value than likely chalk
4 Upgrade finds a good bunch. Tough to take a very short price here.
2 Stonebridge Chips don't love her, but off the right trip she is viable.
3 Bella Chica showed she can win last year. Not impossible. Watching.
1 Feel Like A Woman didn't like what I saw on Monday, Pass.
6 Just Call Me Bella okay enough. 4th money more likely than win.
1 Feel Like A Woman raced Monday and I had high hopes for her to pull the upset. She showed some gate speed in her qualifier and I thought P Mac might use that tool in the race, but he did not. Nevertheless she had a sweet trip and was in striking range on the turn. When they turned for home she was drifting in, then badly, and she had to be steadied to avoid going inside the pylons. She held 4th, but she didn't look great doing it. It seems right around 59 is about all she can go currently, and I'm not sure that beats 2 or 3 of them in here. Coming back on 3 days rest doesn't thrill me either for one that raced like she did on Monday.
2 Stonebridge Chips shows me troubling signs consistently. She is hot in the post parade, and looks sore behind. She was better on both fronts last time. Still, she continues to wilt coming down the lane and near the wire seems to let go. This is a pretty weak bunch and a soft field, and her leaving ability could play here if she gets to the front and gets a big time 2nd quarter breather. Because of all that, she has a shot with these but I would want odds, say at least 7-2. Even that is pushing it.
3 Bella Chica was good last fall winning 3 straight before she was shut down. Those were all at the B tracks though and not in the OSS, which a few of these likely are good enough to try this year. Since returning this spring, she has 4 lines to analyze. Two qualifiers with the trainer driving where she got around, the 2nd one because she made a break on the gate and was distanced twice and was forced back on the list. She picks up McClure, but I would think the goal here is to get around clean and pick up some money. I like others but I will keep a close eye on her. She won in 58.4 over Flamboro at 2, so she has some ability when right.
4 Upgrade is the obvious favorite in here. She showed decent ability being competitive in the OSS last year, although I'm sure paying 300k USD for her at auction they were hoping for at least a Gold filly if not a Grand Circuit type. That does not appear to be what they have. She looks like a decent, but not dominant Grassroots filly. In two races back she has been in with two pretty nice winners and held her own. While no bearcat, she certainly appears better than all of these if she just repeats her last race. I do have concerns that she is a one speed type and doesn't want to fight horses, but in with these, she can leave, either follow or cut it and maintain. That might be enough this time.
5 Press On Ballykeel seems like the potential value horse in here. She showed ability last year, picking up money in the Pure Ivory and getting 2nd in a Grassroots at Grand River, trotting in 58.1 then and 58 flat previous to that. Last year she was nearer the front but willing to sit a trip. In her last start she was on the front and she faded badly. Since returning she has been kept near the back and is learning to stalk and close. She broke in her first qualifier but then laid way back and closed in 27.3 in that one and followed that up last time in a real race getting 4th money after drawing the 9 hole. She draws a good post here, and is likely sitting 4th at the half. If she gets a good flow, I could see her easily being 2nd, and mowing down Upgrade is not out of the question.
6 Just Call Me Bella seems at least a notch below the better ones in here. I'm not sure she is ready to trot in 58 yet, and a few of these are and have before. In her qualifier for this return she cut the mile but when engaged, she just had no answer and was seemingly just good enough to go what she did. That won't cut it here, but she can pick up a piece just going around as I suspect there are at least a couple of breakers in here.
Race Summary
Bella Chica changed everything about this race when she was clearly not a 10-1 horse but the actual favorite, which I nor anyone else could see coming. She settled in 4th, pulled first up, passed the leader who put up mild resistance then put her away and had the only legit contender for the win buried on the rail until it was too late. Cant fault her though. She stayed at it and she worked for it. Press On Ballykeel did everything right this time, leaving well, accepting a two hole, not blowing up when the leader slowed it to a crawl, which should elicit a fine, but anyway, hung in there, and didn't panic when that one trapped her until very late when she angled out too late but nabbed 2nd money anyway. A good showing for her and she is progressing. Upgrade is what she has shown she has been for a while. She is okay, willing to get a soft trip, but when push comes to shove she doesn't do enough and wont fight off horses in the lane, as was the case again. She was very lucky to hold the show spot here and the bettors are onto her now as she wasn't even the favorite this time. Feel Like A Woman was better today than on Monday, I will grant her that. She stayed in and that meant she had to come late, which she did. She still shows turning her head and running in at times, but she was better about that this time and shows no lameness issues parading. Perhaps she is just young and green. I will keep my eye on her in this series. When she exits it and heads back to maidens, she might be farther along and be win worthy. She still only trotted in 59, so that hasn't changed. She needs to develop more speed. Stonebridge Chips was once again hot in the post parade, although a shade better. She didn't run this time when she was told to slow down. She didn't leave this time, which looked to be more about the driver than her, as she didn't seem to keen to follow, but she did. She then picked up very live cover of the winner, and if she was good would have been 2nd here. But she faded down the lane in deep stretch again, and that seems to be where she is at. I don't know how they get more out of her. They tried off the pace this time and she wasn't that much better. Just Call Me Bella never looked comfortable in the post parade. She is long and flashy like many Muscle Mass foals are, but she is not smooth like most of those. As she approached the gate and it sped away she began to roll off stride and she was never on the screen from there. She will have to be seen going forward, but as is, pass for me.
Race 7
1 Elbows Up call for minor upset. One of many.
6 Blue Rare top driver, good post, good enough. Tight. Shot.
4 R Halo very erratic to date. JJ's choice. High upside if she behaves.
5 Just Business has issues. Short price this time. Play against.
3 Kennedy Hanover hard to trust. For a big price, multi leg use.
2 Acrobatic doesn't look up to this level of competition. Pass.
1 Elbows Up shows a 56 flat mile last year to get 2nd money in a Grassroots, but also a couple of races where she made early breaks and then made a late break to end off her season. That was then. She returned with two decent qualifiers, obviously with an eye to this series as she won a race last year and earned 25k, so she wasn't coming back to a straight maiden. You could make an argument that this race isn't any tougher than the maidens Upgrade was in with, and on paper that one is the big favorite in leg 1. In her last qualifier she sailed by Just Call Me Bella like she was tied to a pole. R Halo and Just Business also look good in here, but both of those have issues I will discuss in their analysis. She is one of a few who can get it done here.
2 Acrobatic is a homebred by Green Manalishi. She has been racing all winter, and found a group she could beat 3 back by leaving, then gunning the 3rd quarter and opening enough of a lead that a 31 flat final quarter was more than enough to handle those. Since then, she made a break 2 back when she was already backpeddling at that point, then was no factor at all last time. I would expect that she will be sold off soon to race at the B tracks as she doesn't look like much stock and the maiden score is now in the rear view mirror. Pass.
3 Kennedy Hanover impressed me when she qualified before her last race, enough so that I picked her on top last time, subject to her passing my post parade analysis. Which she did. She looked good all the way up to the gate, then just began to roll off stride. She gathered up, was at the back, trotting okay, then made another break. She has some issue for sure, but she also trotted a back half in 57.4 last time when she stayed trotting. J Mac went elsewhere this time so McNair picks up the mount. She is hard to trust, but at least you are likely to get 15-1 if you take a shot on her. The one below is also hard to trust, but you are going to have to take a short price on her in spite of that.
4 R Halo is by Green Manalishi, making half this field by that sire. Acrobatic doesn't like like much, Kennedy Hanover looks like something but could be great or galloping off the gate, while R Halo was a 200k yearling who has talent but is very erratic to date. She qualified on March 21st winning by 10 lengths and looked like something to watch for. However, the two right behind her, Feel Like A Woman and Lifting Legend both were not impressive in their first starts on Monday. Before that mile, she made a break mid race, without the hopples, which they put on for that successful mile on March 21st. She had them on again last time for her debut for a purse, she paraded well, looked good on the gate and then was leaving but looked to hit herself and took off on a wild gallop and that was that. Some people like JJ as a driver, some don't. I always did, but either way I know this. He is a very good judge of talent. He picked this one over the likely favorite in the 5 horse, whom he has already done well with. That gives me an indication that he sees this one as a top prospect and the other one as less than that. I will use her hoping that the last race was a one off rookie mistake.
5 Just Business is racing well I guess. She has 4 lifetime starts. She broke her maiden, impressively. Or did she? The only one to come out of that race and win has been Loyal Leo. Loyal Leo was on the lead that race but he jumped it off and that left Just Business alone on the lead and she delivered. Credit to her. She did that. The rest behind her consisted of professional maidens and others who don't look like they will break their maiden at Mohawk, barring Switch doing it if she catches the right field before Grand River opens. From there she has hit the ticket 3 times in 3 races, the last two finishing 2nd when she had a very legit chance to win but was beaten down the lane. Her issue seems to be running in, and she is much worse doing that in the turns, where she might gain a length she loses one. That didn't affect her in the maiden race, but it has as the competition improved, as it does here again. As noted above, JJ has been driving her all along and he chooses another who shows some issues. If she takes favorite money this time, I will play against her again.
6 Blue Rare was a pretty nice 2yo if not spectacular. She won over Grand River in 1.58 and that was in a Grassroots race. She trotted in 57 and change a few times last year, and having a qualifier under her belt plus a real race last time suggests she was being prepped for this series, which is really a Grassroots race for those who didn't earn at the top level. J Mac sticks with her over Kennedy Hanover, and she is another with a legit shot. She showed good tactical speed last year at this track from this post with J Mac driving. She could easily fall into a nice two hole trip here.
Race Summary
Elbows Up left well, wasn't happy with the pocket so took control, made another left turn then trotted away an easy winner. On this night they were all racing for 2nd and of the 12 that raced in this series tonight she was the most impressive. R Halo gapped the gate slightly, seemingly intentionally by JJ to keep her to task, acted like a pro when the 3 horse ran in front of her, ducked to the rail before the first turn and inherited the 4 hole when Just Business blew the turn and ran into the safety lane. She moved first over at the 3/4 pole and gradually took 2nd money away from Blue Rare. That was a nice start to turning her fortunes around going forward. I saw no issues with her at all. Blue Rare left well and made an easy lead, but didn't seem to want to go much and accepted a pocket willingly for which she followed the winner from there. She did gap that one badly the farther they went and was no match for R Halo when she came up to her wheel. She was okay. She just seems okay overall. Her consistent steadiness will play over time but she needs some luck to beat these types as some of them are going forward while she appears to be just staying the same.
Just Business as expected had a lot of trouble with the first turn this time but Young didn't finesse her through it like JJ did and she took off running and was moved to the safety lane where she regained her gait quickly. From there she made mild gains until the 3/4s where again that last turn slowed her momentum and she was only good enough to take down the two big longshots, one who ran earlier and the other who stopped badly again. She is regressing. Acrobatic left well, followed well, but cant go with these. Nothing new to impart on her. Kennedy Hanover got off the gate okay this time but was shortly thereafter on a full run again. She stayed with them from there but faded down the lane and now she is on the list and has to requalify. She will have to be seen then.
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