Some thoughts
Like anything that involves money, horse racing is an information game. Good information. Something you can use. Something others don't have. Either because they can't be bothered to look, or they don't understand the difference between useless info and high end info.
The basics. Yes you have to know how to read the program. It's the starting point of any inquiry and the foundation. The basics. It won't get you very high end info, but it leads you on that path. Noting that Zillenial likely had a breathing and or finishing issue was easy to see off the program last week and that he had changed hands between starts to a high end Mohawk trainer I could get off the program. Observing him in the post parade his previous start gave me some clues to what the previous trainer tried to do to correct that issue.
Watching videos. Yes, it's important. What is not on the page is usually on display on the track. I mentioned that with Thor B Good and Green Nineteen last week. In this age where you have 24/7 almost endless access to replays, you have an advantage if you choose to use it that we didn't have 40 years ago.
Most of all though, you have insider type info that some choose to give out. It's rare, and you have to look hard, and sometimes read between the lines, but its there and it makes a huge difference in how you can view a race. I will discuss a bit of that with this card.
Race 2
2 Cupid Hall just too much for these
3 Goldie Lux Hanover if she behaves, she has a shot at 2nd
9 My Classy Queen bad post, still working on putting it together.
1 Wild Rose Hanover first start back. expect a conservative trip.
8 Wht Blonde Hanover shot at the ticket if some blow up
4 Northern Teardrop needs to do more to move up the food chain
5 Shez Got Trix her issues are well known. Needs to right the ship.
6 Just Call Me Bella blew up last time. Clean line this time?
7 Hp Shefford fts who is a long way from this bunch at this point.
1 Wild Rose Hanover is a Bar Hopping 3yo filly who made 9 starts at 2 but did not win. Waples Jr. is very patient with his young ones and seems to play the long game, keeping them for many years and grinding out a good return. They cant all be stars like No Sex Please but you can get plenty of them that will grind out 300 or 400k over a career if you wait on them. She showed mid range speed last year, 58 to 59 in many starts and finished off the year at the end of October when she went a shade faster, 57.4 to get 2nd by a nose. She was then shut down and now reappears in this straight maiden. I don't love that she qualified at Flamboro, going her own first half in 1.03.2. She certainly can go faster, but she meets at least 2 here that will easily trot in 57 flat if not better. I will pass and watch her this time. Her time will come. She is not an Ontario bred and doesn't look like the type you ship to Pocono or The Meadows for a stake race, so she will live in this class or at Grand River until she graduates. I just don't see that as tonight.
2 Cupid Hall has all the tools to whip this bunch if Zeron wants to do that. Does he? Lets see what he said in his interview, linked above, about her and her prospects this year. "She's going to be a serious player this year. Last year she really wasn't comfortable being on the top because she would lose herself, but I trained her back, I trained her on the front yesterday, and she was real comfortable." That was before she qualified wire to wire in 58 with Zeron driving from the 3 hole, opening up in the lane at will. As a filly that made 126k last year, trotted in 54 and was 2nd in the Superfinal, unless she is awful parading, which is doubtful as I dont think Zeron would race her if she was, she is a slam dunk winner here, likely coast to coast.
3 Goldie Lux Hanover in my opinion has talent and upside, but she currently can't get out of her own way. If she were to keep it together this time she has a shot at 2nd or 3rd money. That is a big if, but it's out there.
4 Northern Teardrop has come back to the races a very slow starter and she has limited ability to recover. She will have to show me more to get on board. Watching for that.
5 Shez Got Trix is not one I can back with her breaking issues and horrendous win record. If she beats me she beats me, but I don't see any play here.
6 Just Call Me Bella I didn't like what I saw when she qualified and she broke and was distanced first out. Back in the day that would get you on the qualifying list, but today, she gets to come right back. No thanks. Let's see her stay flat and come forward at the end.
7 Hp Shefford is a fts, and she tried to qualify twice this spring without the hopples, which didn't work, then put them on and trotted a flat line last time to be able to race for a purse here. However, all three miles ended up in 2.04 range, and even if flat she is well behind almost all of these. Watching for some sign she will put it together.
8 Wht Blonde Hanover is bred to the hilt, as a daughter of hot sire Captain Corey and out of a full sister to Muscle Hill. To date that dam has been a poor producer, with only Hey Blondie being a good one out of 8 foals. This filly started 4 times at 2 and trotted in 56.4, but also made a couple of breaks, once burning the chalk players at 1-2. She qualified a week ago and was well back early and continued that trend to the wire in very slow time. She is hard to back when you see that. McClure is a crafty horseman and he will figure her out, but for now she is one to watch.
9 My Classy Queen has been progressing for weeks, but she still has that issue that she is prone to make a break when she changes gears and is asked or wants to pick up the pace. She looked like a winner on the turn last time until she jumped it off. I would think she takes back this time and they are more conservative with her. I could see her getting up for 3rd or 4th like she did two starts ago, but I would have a hard time backing her for the win when I know she gets on the qualifying list if she breaks again.
Race 3
1 Willie Boy of all the non performers in this group, this is the one that would scare me most. The fact that it's Ben B and he hasn't shipped him yet leads me to believe he has hope he will sort him out. Also, this year he puts the hopples on, and that kept him trotting last time. He is a wild stab in a race where the favorites look a bit suspect and most of the longshots are hopeless. There is just a minor sliver of hope for this one and I will hang my hat on that.
2 Iced was very fast last year but didn't take a win in 8 starts. He comes into this race off two okay qualifiers. He will have to be seen, and is a contender, but this race screams longer shot to me and he won't be one of those.
3 Gone With The Wine picks up McNair as it appears Plante declined the boarding ticket for this one. I find it hard to believe that what I've seen from him this spring is going to reverse on top of that he raced at London on Friday. He doesn't look sound enough to race on 3 days rest, if he isn't an early scratch.
5 Wolverine Legend is one I liked last year and thought he could be a top shelf horse. However he had 13 tries and never got over the hump. He is yet another example you see with a lot of the Green Manalishi's. He just doesn't finish off horses when he has the chance, at any level.
6 Dulces Suenos Deo sometimes you can't believe what you are about to say. Tonight looks like the night this one will break the maiden. I don't like much in here, and while Wolverine Legend is faster, and classier, he also has issues winning from what I can see, and Iced, while much faster last year has only been okay so far in two qualifiers. The rest I can pass on. That leaves this money burner with a shot tonight at a decent price.
7 Talbot Patriot shows me nothing to suggest I can back him based on last time. And the time before that. And the time before that.
Race 4
1 Felix Hanover was an easy winner last time and would have two in a row going for him if he was raced with intent the start before that. Now he swims from the shallow end of mediocre maidens into the deep end with winners and some who have decent Stakes resumes. I'm inclined to play against him here as others have shown more. Do I think he has more? Yes. Will he show that tonight? That is debatable.
2 Lancelot is a very big ticket Lexington Select yearling who has not panned out for whomever signed that ticket, and Arsenault is trying to get him going in the right direction. He didn't win last year at 3 in 10 tries, and he is very variable to say the least. He shows 3 lines where he broke stride and was distanced and two lines where he trotted fast enough to win this race. He has been missing since Labor Day and qualified down South in fast time by open lengths. He will obviously have to be seen, but he isn't impossible with this bunch if good Lancelot shows up.
3 Tahonta won 4 times last year, but 3 of those were in a straight maiden at Kawartha, and they were small and weak fields she dominated. When brought to Mohawk she wasn't nearly as dominant and took until her last start to win. She is using the two qualifier prep return, and in that second one she was a distant 3rd, to obviously two vastly superior horses in Osceola and Galen Erso, Grand Circuit types and Gold Winners who are now also aged. I want to see one from her against her own kind to see how she stacks up. She has a minor shot but many look better than her and readier than she is to go fast.
7 Ill Have The Red like a lot of Chapter Sevens, seems to have leg issues, but when they are good they are really good and she fits that mold. She made 88k last year racing against some tough customers and trotting in 55. I get the impression from Zeron he is going to take it easy on her tonight, so while she is a contender she is likely to be raced without absolute intent. Something like her qualifier, where she leaves a bit then sits and comes too late but finishes with some go. That is how Zeron likes his horses raced anyway and what you would expect tonight.
8 Loyal Leo is strangely the 3-1 ML second choice, which is ridiculous. He is at least 10-1 here and likely higher. I think he is coming along, but he was all out for 3rd last time, parked a long way. I don't see him being pushed hard this time and coming around several who look a lot better than he does, even if he had a better post than post 8, which he doesn't.
9 First Class Mass raced 9 times last year, winning his first lifetime start and getting 3rd in a Wellwood elimination. Other than that he was just okay, sometimes even less than okay, making a break or lagging back early. He qualified back well, and he draws the 9 hole here if there are no scratches inside him. The key change for him is taking off the hopples this year, which he did in that return qualifier and will race without them again. I am always suspicious of this move until proven otherwise, and I will go against him expecting a short price on him. He can prove me wrong about that, and he will have to in this case.
1 Wild Rose Hanover is a Bar Hopping 3yo filly who made 9 starts at 2 but did not win. Waples Jr. is very patient with his young ones and seems to play the long game, keeping them for many years and grinding out a good return. They cant all be stars like No Sex Please but you can get plenty of them that will grind out 300 or 400k over a career if you wait on them. She showed mid range speed last year, 58 to 59 in many starts and finished off the year at the end of October when she went a shade faster, 57.4 to get 2nd by a nose. She was then shut down and now reappears in this straight maiden. I don't love that she qualified at Flamboro, going her own first half in 1.03.2. She certainly can go faster, but she meets at least 2 here that will easily trot in 57 flat if not better. I will pass and watch her this time. Her time will come. She is not an Ontario bred and doesn't look like the type you ship to Pocono or The Meadows for a stake race, so she will live in this class or at Grand River until she graduates. I just don't see that as tonight.
2 Cupid Hall has all the tools to whip this bunch if Zeron wants to do that. Does he? Lets see what he said in his interview, linked above, about her and her prospects this year. "She's going to be a serious player this year. Last year she really wasn't comfortable being on the top because she would lose herself, but I trained her back, I trained her on the front yesterday, and she was real comfortable." That was before she qualified wire to wire in 58 with Zeron driving from the 3 hole, opening up in the lane at will. As a filly that made 126k last year, trotted in 54 and was 2nd in the Superfinal, unless she is awful parading, which is doubtful as I dont think Zeron would race her if she was, she is a slam dunk winner here, likely coast to coast.
3 Goldie Lux Hanover in my opinion has talent and upside, but she currently can't get out of her own way. If she were to keep it together this time she has a shot at 2nd or 3rd money. That is a big if, but it's out there.
4 Northern Teardrop has come back to the races a very slow starter and she has limited ability to recover. She will have to show me more to get on board. Watching for that.
5 Shez Got Trix is not one I can back with her breaking issues and horrendous win record. If she beats me she beats me, but I don't see any play here.
6 Just Call Me Bella I didn't like what I saw when she qualified and she broke and was distanced first out. Back in the day that would get you on the qualifying list, but today, she gets to come right back. No thanks. Let's see her stay flat and come forward at the end.
7 Hp Shefford is a fts, and she tried to qualify twice this spring without the hopples, which didn't work, then put them on and trotted a flat line last time to be able to race for a purse here. However, all three miles ended up in 2.04 range, and even if flat she is well behind almost all of these. Watching for some sign she will put it together.
8 Wht Blonde Hanover is bred to the hilt, as a daughter of hot sire Captain Corey and out of a full sister to Muscle Hill. To date that dam has been a poor producer, with only Hey Blondie being a good one out of 8 foals. This filly started 4 times at 2 and trotted in 56.4, but also made a couple of breaks, once burning the chalk players at 1-2. She qualified a week ago and was well back early and continued that trend to the wire in very slow time. She is hard to back when you see that. McClure is a crafty horseman and he will figure her out, but for now she is one to watch.
9 My Classy Queen has been progressing for weeks, but she still has that issue that she is prone to make a break when she changes gears and is asked or wants to pick up the pace. She looked like a winner on the turn last time until she jumped it off. I would think she takes back this time and they are more conservative with her. I could see her getting up for 3rd or 4th like she did two starts ago, but I would have a hard time backing her for the win when I know she gets on the qualifying list if she breaks again.
Race 3
6 Dulces Suenos Deo about time to push the button on him. Price?
1 Willie Boy wild stab on him. Hopples on and trainer has cred.
2 Iced contender but I will shoot for the price with top 2 picks.
5 Wolverine Legend reliable, don't like how he finishes races.
4 Had To Know bottom 3 could be in any order. Hate them all.
7 Talbot Patriot is what he is. Not with these.
3 Gone With The Wine impossible to like from what I have seen.
1 Willie Boy of all the non performers in this group, this is the one that would scare me most. The fact that it's Ben B and he hasn't shipped him yet leads me to believe he has hope he will sort him out. Also, this year he puts the hopples on, and that kept him trotting last time. He is a wild stab in a race where the favorites look a bit suspect and most of the longshots are hopeless. There is just a minor sliver of hope for this one and I will hang my hat on that.
2 Iced was very fast last year but didn't take a win in 8 starts. He comes into this race off two okay qualifiers. He will have to be seen, and is a contender, but this race screams longer shot to me and he won't be one of those.
3 Gone With The Wine picks up McNair as it appears Plante declined the boarding ticket for this one. I find it hard to believe that what I've seen from him this spring is going to reverse on top of that he raced at London on Friday. He doesn't look sound enough to race on 3 days rest, if he isn't an early scratch.
4 Had To Know is not one I can back after what I've seen from him in 3 starts this spring. Lets see him get a cheque and not do it because two of them ran and were distanced.
5 Wolverine Legend is one I liked last year and thought he could be a top shelf horse. However he had 13 tries and never got over the hump. He is yet another example you see with a lot of the Green Manalishi's. He just doesn't finish off horses when he has the chance, at any level.
In most races, he also loses ground in the stretch. He is viable, with these, but not reliable. He has a shot, but I will go to others on top.
6 Dulces Suenos Deo sometimes you can't believe what you are about to say. Tonight looks like the night this one will break the maiden. I don't like much in here, and while Wolverine Legend is faster, and classier, he also has issues winning from what I can see, and Iced, while much faster last year has only been okay so far in two qualifiers. The rest I can pass on. That leaves this money burner with a shot tonight at a decent price.
7 Talbot Patriot shows me nothing to suggest I can back him based on last time. And the time before that. And the time before that.
Race 4
4 Rico Tubbs play the bounce back. Mark Mac returns.
7 Ill Have The Red might be too late this time.
1 Felix Hanover these are tougher. Does he have more for now?
2 Lancelot wildly inconsistent. Who knows with him?
9 First Class Mass bad post, new season, no hopples. Test drive?
3 Tahonta the type that needs a few to adapt. Watching for now.
8 Loyal Leo post hurts here. Likely hunting a slice late.
10 Check Master form is bad. Post is terrible. Another day. Or week.
6 Shock Factor if everything goes right he can bag 4th or 5th
5 Hobnob Hanover No. Just no.
1 Felix Hanover was an easy winner last time and would have two in a row going for him if he was raced with intent the start before that. Now he swims from the shallow end of mediocre maidens into the deep end with winners and some who have decent Stakes resumes. I'm inclined to play against him here as others have shown more. Do I think he has more? Yes. Will he show that tonight? That is debatable.
2 Lancelot is a very big ticket Lexington Select yearling who has not panned out for whomever signed that ticket, and Arsenault is trying to get him going in the right direction. He didn't win last year at 3 in 10 tries, and he is very variable to say the least. He shows 3 lines where he broke stride and was distanced and two lines where he trotted fast enough to win this race. He has been missing since Labor Day and qualified down South in fast time by open lengths. He will obviously have to be seen, but he isn't impossible with this bunch if good Lancelot shows up.
3 Tahonta won 4 times last year, but 3 of those were in a straight maiden at Kawartha, and they were small and weak fields she dominated. When brought to Mohawk she wasn't nearly as dominant and took until her last start to win. She is using the two qualifier prep return, and in that second one she was a distant 3rd, to obviously two vastly superior horses in Osceola and Galen Erso, Grand Circuit types and Gold Winners who are now also aged. I want to see one from her against her own kind to see how she stacks up. She has a minor shot but many look better than her and readier than she is to go fast.
4 Rico Tubbs was given a great steer by J Mac last time but came up pancake flat in the stretch. Seems he bounced off that good first effort this year and its my call that he can bounce right back. J Mac went elsewhere, so brother Mark hops back on and he got him 2nd money two back. I will play him on top for the rebound at what looks like a big price this time.
5 Hobnob Hanover will hope to battle Shock Factor for 5th money.
6 Shock Factor will come late and look to take 4th or 5th. Pass on the win for me.
7 Ill Have The Red like a lot of Chapter Sevens, seems to have leg issues, but when they are good they are really good and she fits that mold. She made 88k last year racing against some tough customers and trotting in 55. I get the impression from Zeron he is going to take it easy on her tonight, so while she is a contender she is likely to be raced without absolute intent. Something like her qualifier, where she leaves a bit then sits and comes too late but finishes with some go. That is how Zeron likes his horses raced anyway and what you would expect tonight.
8 Loyal Leo is strangely the 3-1 ML second choice, which is ridiculous. He is at least 10-1 here and likely higher. I think he is coming along, but he was all out for 3rd last time, parked a long way. I don't see him being pushed hard this time and coming around several who look a lot better than he does, even if he had a better post than post 8, which he doesn't.
9 First Class Mass raced 9 times last year, winning his first lifetime start and getting 3rd in a Wellwood elimination. Other than that he was just okay, sometimes even less than okay, making a break or lagging back early. He qualified back well, and he draws the 9 hole here if there are no scratches inside him. The key change for him is taking off the hopples this year, which he did in that return qualifier and will race without them again. I am always suspicious of this move until proven otherwise, and I will go against him expecting a short price on him. He can prove me wrong about that, and he will have to in this case.
10 Check Master has been flat lately even when he was not running or trying to. Now he draws the 10 hole in a race with some tough customers. If he can somehow muster up some late move and pick up 5th money that should be considered a good night at the office. Holland is very good at turning these types around, and I suspect he will do that with this one. But, not tonight.
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